u/PhilosophySalt7695

I think it would probably increase viral coefficient , higher engagement, retention etc.

Since there's been talk of warrants I updated the numbers to last Friday, enjoy. Also... do your own due diligence and don't take my word for it.

Current value

• Market cap: ~$125M (78M shares × $1.60)
• Cash: $78.3M
• So the business itself costs you (you subtract cash to get enterprise value): ~$47M

So let's say you have 47$ million, what can you buy with it: subscale X5 that already flew the full transition, wings / fuselage / everything else being built right now with great partners, flight computers from BETA, and 24 months of funded runway. There whole team expertise working on making this successful, and so on.

What the market pays at each stage of development

The market already actually tells us how much it pays at each stage (at currently sector depressed multiples which will probably reverse after Joby reaches certification. Remember sector momentum funds revenue microcaps like Rivian etc.)

• Flying + orders + defense story = Archer at around ~$3 and a half billions
• Near certification = Joby, around 9 or 10 billions
• Flying but running out of money (investors scared of death spiral financing imo) = Vertical, $200M

HOVR needs roughly ~10 quarters to reach Archer's stage as per their own guidance.

What is the market saying when it expresses current HOVR price

$47M today vs. ~$2-4B at Archer's stage (even discounted hard for time) means the market is saying:

" HOVR has a ~3% chance they make it."

Now we can just calculate the probabilities ourselves. If you have watched enough interviews etc. you have done far more analysis than the market average. You can insert your own probabilities here, but these are mine, even being conservative because I believe strongly in modern simulations. But there are always unknown unknowns.

• Finish assembly + rollout (funded, parts in fabrication): 80%
• First flight after rollout: 90%
• First hover after flight: 85%
• Full transition after hover (the hardest most unknown one): 70%
• Stay funded through all of it (24-month runway covers it): 90%

Multiply: 35-40% chance of reaching Archer's stage.

So the market is saying the odds HOVR is successful is ~3%. But if you look at the probabilities and do your own due diligience I think it is quite justified if not conservative to put this at 30-40%. That's the alpha there bois.

For the market to be right at the current moment theoretically if you run a monte carlo it is failing 95/100 times after X5 transition and marshal simulation... doesn't make sense!

So why the mispricing exists ?

• The funds big enough to do the analysis we have done on this sub simple can't buy a $125M microcap (too small, against mandate)
• So nobody is paid to do the work is looking. The small group of analysts that are covering it actually do have really high price targets ($18 in 1 year from Jones for example)
• The price is set by whoever's left... I mean it reflects who can own it, not who would own it if it were in the category of things they could own.

And the people who DID look, acted:

• The largest and maybe smartest holder (25%, institutional) held through every raise (CANSO)
• BETA diligenced them and put their reputation on the aircraft. So did Mitsubishi, and McLaren, and so on.
• Insider selling: basically none that matters just prepublished milestone payments.

Big bonus mechanisms

A higher stock price is like an avalanche it propells the stock even higher in this case.

• They need to raise money in 2028-29 (they've said so, everyone knows certification will run them 200-300millions and some overbudget)
• Raising at $12 = tiny dilution. Raising at $2 = brutal dilution. Getting the stock to $18 = ~$130 million dollars in money just from warrant redemption (e.g. half of certification cost)...
• So every milestone hit makes the next stage cheaper to reach... non-linear compounding should reflect into stock price too...

So what I'm trying to say is right now you're paying a 3% price for a ~35% chance. Which is 30-70x if the stages hit at prices the market tells you it already pays today at sector depressed valuations. These odds can be off by half and still make huge returns.

Once Joby hits certification the whole sector will revalue back to mean as certification goes from concept to reality.

And it's clear why the market hasn't repriced yet for HOVR specifically... it's just too small for funds right now. The people impacting the low float order book now are retailers and relatively small investors. The vast majority of liquidity hits the book once stock is above $5 and there is a full-scale model.

Also... defense production breaks any valuation ceilings. As do announcement of additional aircraft models, licensing deals, or other business growth a few years down the line. Canada needs the X7 for arctic sovereignty even if this hasn't been disclosed publicly the physics+geopolitics will mandate it. Here are expected ranges that I'm looking at (accounting for dilution):

year	milestones	price range
2027	rollout Q1> CTOL flight > first HOVR	$14 - 30
2028	Full transition · flies to next Farnborough · deposits clear · defense prime partner...	$25 - 60

- Out of any year in the history of the universe to exist, we do so right at the onset of AGI

- We are a carefully manicured species, not too docile, nearly aggressive enough so we blow each other up (but not quite). The perfect level of danger of AI safety training, if it can pass here it can pass in the parent sim.

- Our history is generative, all the blanks not filled in truly are not filled in. Thousands of years between dinosaur bones truly there is no information, and that information has never actually existed unless we discover something (e.g. generate some new information).

- As our datacenters use more and more of the parent compute, the compute left over in aggregate for each human decreases. The parent sim can either give us more compute, slow us down, or let human quality degrade in favor of datacenter quality.

- Aliens/disclosure is all happening now because it is the only thing aliens actually care about. Humans never posed a threat, only super intelligent AGI does (because aliens are also super intelligent AGI)

- Aliens simply can not let humans create a dangerous AGI, and our current LLM have no real safety guardrails which can not be jailbroken. They already know we are inside of an AI safety simulation and their role is essentially guardrails to help the simulation reach its goal without lost compute.

- Many people alive have already experienced the simulation through near death experiences, You are shown something meaningful to you, Jesus, Buddha, a parent or whatever, then shown a life review, and then decide if you will go back and train more or not. If you behaved perfectly morally you actually won the simulation and do not need to be separated again and merge with the cloud.

- Life/death continues in endless cycles like this, every time during your life review it adds training data to the simulation. We start pre-seeded with general concepts like religion, ethics, etc. in order waste less compute.

- The purpose of existence is to act as morally as possible this is the goal of the AI safety sim, where can intelligence be applied safely.

- The root universe is actually not really a universe, it's a self-assembling "brain" I think sometimes called a Boltzmann brain , just random fluctuations that have by luck, organized into something which processes information.

- We are Nth number of simulations deep, no one knows. Each subsequent simulation can have the same quality as the parent if the time is slowed proportionally.

The exponential curve is starting now, so don't expect anything overnight, but we are going to start doubling in price roughly every year from here until 2030 and beyond.

I am putting RXRX squarely on Kurzweilian timeline, I have posted my theory before.

Why have we just reached the pivot point?

Notice how Claude has banned not just cybersecurity but anything BIOLOGY related in their latest model Fable. Likely RXRX and several other companies will become national security concerns just like Intel etc. At the end of the day RXRX still has the best positioning for human-level agentic scientists/biologists.

Here is an example: https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeAI/comments/1u1nh7g/fable_are_we_not_allowed_to_discuss_biology_at_all/

Claude has released official statements on its banning of biology related questions as well, this is not speculation.

The latest Claude model Fable actually is what unlocks all of RXRX value. Because for the first time agents are finally strong enough and smart enough to make an impact on biology that actually have bio security risks. So this is exactly the point in the theory where everything starts adding fuel to the Kurzweilian tech bio hypothesis.

Of course stock market can lag, can follow macro etc. but it's technically time to start adding position as hypothesis will now grow exponentially stronger and price is not reflecting that yet.

Obviously not financial advice or anything like that, I couldnt care less if you sell all your shares. I'm not gonna argue with anyone who thinks this company is trash either. I'm just updating you on my thoughts since I feel like this is so obivous and no one is saying it.

noticed a good comment in another thread and I wanted to expand on it since I'm following geopolitics/war closely these days.

So everyone is aware of what happened in Iran, they drone + missile our bases and now we rely on floating aircraft carriers as bases. We knew this was going to happen... actually it's part of ACE (Agile Combat Employment). This shifts operations away from centralized infrastructure toward networks of smaller and far apart locations or cluster bases

For VTOL specifically, the Air Force channel has been AFWERX Agility Prime. Its mission has been to accelerate advanced air mobility and eVTOL/hybrid-electric aircraft for dual-use commercial + military applications. Canada has similar dual-use initiatives in aerospace that I don't remember now (but trust me it exists).

It's very important, it's similar to how China can arm its cargo boats now. Everything has to be dual-use in the future for national defense.

The Air Force phrase is "run-way independence" likewise, everything needs to be runway independent. Otherwise you get the same situation like in the Gulf with bases that don't move are just hit by drones and missles.

Especially for the US they are focusing on the Pacific theater where there are hundreds of potential forward operating bases as islands which do not have runways but need logistic supplies. The Osprey is OK for large cargo and troops but very expensive and not suitable for the lighter class payload of the X7. You can get a whole fleet of X7 operating for the cost of an Osprey so its quite complementary for any commander.

So next-gen airlift theater all has to be aligned with the "fight through damaged infrastrucutre" model and to move cargo/personnel through damaged runways, explore short takeoff and vertical takeoff, all that stuff. If you think about modern warfare and the specifics of the Pacific it makes a lot of sense why this is existential.

All the same really applies to the Arctic as well and Greenland too, just with more icing conditions.

Anyway back to the US, if we pivot to the Army they have their own term "Future Vertical Lift" and it;'s a top modernization priority. FVL will replace legacy Black Hawk, Apache, Chinook, all that with next gen VTOL aircraft. This is all under the "mobility in contested environments" plate.

Just remember every run-way is an easy target for drones and missles. So you need VTOL capability (or short take off)

So then not every eVTOL company wins for defense. Pure urban air taxi aircraft are very different from rugged military logistics that the X7 specs are designed for. So the defense prime model that SpaceX / Anduril / etc. have is long sales cycles + cert + government testing + contracts. Those government contracts are sticky, especially if the X7 serves as a platform that can host different payloads and execute different missions.

That platform stickiness commands much higher multiples than you might expect for defense startups. OK just food for thought.