I just lost a over 10 hour run because I had a girlfriend.

I was doing a dancer run and was apparently to slow in getting the dances. I then figured I had a Tarentallist with a pretty portrait and would like the dancing club so I sent her an invite. I then either didn't go on enough dates or missed too many passion opportunities (since it is a small pop up and I missed it) so she starts to resent me. She then goes rouge and I figure I can take her out with a snare. Snares don't last long and it is hard to know when you need then, so I mess up and she gets to level 6. I finally get a snare and figure this will knock her down or I will be able to finish the last dance before she gets back to where she was before the trap. The trap fails. I didn't even know it could fail. As I am galivanting to the last dance she ascends. I literally did not need to have a girlfriend and it screwed my at least 10 hour run. Very accurate game, 10/10.

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u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 4 days ago

How does Marathon intend to compete with superior games like "With Your Coworker"

"With your Coworker" appears to be beating Marathon, with a daily peak that is about as high as Marathon (around 4000), nearly 80% player retention after 2 months, and more users during non peak hours. Is there something that this small indie studio has done to capture a player base more active than Bungie's player base? In response, should bungie pivot to pornographic desktop companions to increase player count?

https://steamdb.info/app/3065800/charts/

https://steamdb.info/app/4564320/charts/

reddit.com
u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 4 days ago

Is this the easiest way to raise player counts?

So there is a low player count issue now and lots of people have lots of ideas on how to solve it. However, most of these are gambles, require resources that may not exist, or are hard to implement. However, due to the large size of the bungie development team I believe that there is a solution that is easy, attainable, and would be more effective than other solutions. Just have the developers stop developing the game and play the game at least 8 hours a day. This would raise player counts by at least 300 players during peak times and about 50 at non peak times. Unlike other methods this is guaranteed to drive player counts, and could increase confidence in the game. We have seen stuff like Vault breakers and night marsh did not result in more players playing, so is getting the devs to play their game instead of developing it the easiest way to ensure they get more players?

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u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 6 days ago

My friend said they liked Marathon more than they thought they would!

I got marathon with my friends and recently he mentioned that he liked marathon more than he thought he would! He said it showed that he was a fan of extraction shooters and was looking to play more extraction shooters. That is why he told me to request access to the new extraction shooter "Hunger". marathon has made him excited to play extraction shooters that are not Marathon, because he owns Marathon and doesn't want to play it. Does anyone else have success stories of Marathon getting people to play extraction shooters (that are not Marathon)!

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u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 1 month ago

"Niche Genre"

I will list a bunch of games by their genres without listing the game's name, see if you can catch the "niche" one.

Genre Competitors Player count Link
Asymmetric Multiplayer Horror No other competitors with over 1000 players. Hasn't had less than 10,000 max concurrent players per day since launch. https://steamdb.info/app/381210/charts/
3d First Person Automation No competitors in genre, a few in 2d. Hasn't seen below 20,000 players at any time since launch. https://steamdb.info/app/526870/charts/
First person Sci-Fi extraction shooter AA Multiple triple and double A releases along with indie games. Competitors include free and paid games. Is a mode in other games. 2nd most popular non-free game on steam peaked at half a million players, has never gone under 20,000 players at any time after launch. https://steamdb.info/app/1808500/charts/
The 19th worst rated game on Steam! Failed games like Kerbal Space Program 2, or buggy cash grabs like Battlefront classic collection Hasn't seen less that 40,000 players since launch. https://steamdb.info/app/2357570/charts/
First Person Sci-Fi Extraction Shooter AAA Multiple triple and double A releases along with indie games. Competitors include free and paid games. Is a mode in other games. Is struggling to get 10,000 players on weekends during peak hours. This is three months after launch after the second major content drop. https://steamdb.info/app/3065800/charts/
First Person "Heist" shooter No other competitors with over 1000 players, aside from other entries in the series. Hasn't been below 20,000 players at any time since launch. https://steamdb.info/app/218620/
First Person "bomb planting" Competitive Multiplayer Shooter Other entries in series, Due process and Pavlov VR which both have under 100 players. Has not had less that half a million players, at all times, in the last 9 years. Hasn't had less than 10,000 max concurrent players per day since launch. https://steamdb.info/app/730/charts/#48h
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u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 2 months ago

Should I uninstall the game?

I recently have been told to uninstall the game by people in game. Should I uninstall the game and reduce the player count of this game even further? Is there any point to continuing to play this game? What should I do to get people to stop telling me to uninstall the game?

Edit: This lasted 10 minutes on r/Marathon The mods are really working overtime to save their game.

reddit.com
u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 2 months ago

Why are hardcore extraction shooters so unpopular?

I don't get why nobody seems to be willing to give Marathon a chance just because it is an extraction shooter! Even my friend group is unwilling to stop playing Hunt Showdown to play Marathon, even though they own both games. Just because extraction shooter will never be in the top 50 most played games on steam doesn't mean they are an inherently bad game design. I mean, except for Arc Raiders, but that doesn't count because it is easy. I wish more people would give this game as much of a chance as they give Escape From Tarkov, which based on the fact that it has double the player count of Marathon I assume means that it is not an extraction shooter. Extraction shooters are so niche that a parody game of Escape from Tarkov called "Escape From Duckov" has 4k peak players, over a third of the players Marathon has. The narrative against Marathon has become so strong that after the free week that Marahton only has 9% of the total players of all extraction shooters between: Arc Radiers (52k), Hunt Showdown(36k), and Escape From Tarkov(25k) Escape From Duckov(4k) and Marathon(11k).

Can anyone explain why people seem to be so against Marathon and not any of these other games?

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u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 2 months ago

Exponential Regression Analysis of player counts.

How bad is player retention in Marathon Season 1 and Season 2?

Methodology

I recently did some analysis on the player counts of Marathon. In my data I used daily, weekly, or biweekly information in hundreds of players based off of steamDB. I did two exponential regressions, one on season 1 and one on season 2. The season 1 was based on weekly counts, while Season 2 is daily. I chose exponential regression since those are more common in natural systems, and there do not appear to be linear or polynomial factors. Based on my analysis the best fit for the data is an exponential regression, in the form of a*b^x where a and b are constants and x is the date or week number.

Other considered methodologies

I checked linear and sinusoidal patterns also, but rejected them. In season 1 I got a slightly better fit (R^2 improved from 0.9672 to 0.9831) with the format a*b^x + c. This would make sense if the c = 101.17 essentially this implies that if this is a representative model then there are 10117 players who played effectively every day and were not subject to declining player factors. This makes sense, since some games have fans who stick by the game under any circumstances. However when the same model was applied to season 2 c became -170.41, implying that Marathon had a theoretical negative hardcore fan base and that the player counts are approaching a negative number, not zero. Both of these assumptions are ridiculous and the difference between the two R^2 is small enough to be negligible.

Points of reference

For reference I did the same analysis on dead by daylight over the last 4 months every two weeks (between free weekends) and got values of 0.05% increase per day. Which makes sense since its player base is stable and increasing. I also ran this on the March to June (between the 2.7 and 2.8 update) on Hunt Showdown this year it had a 0.36% loss per day.

Results

Running the analysis on the Marathon data revealed the following. The values for b was 0.819056 for season 1 and 0.909173 for season 2. Converting both values to the same timescale (daily) we get 0.97187852516 for season 1 and 0.909173 for season two. This means season one lost roughly 2.81% of its population per day, and season 2 lost roughly 9.08% of its population per day.

Dead by Daylight (last 4 months biweekly between updates) Hunt Showdown (2 months between 2.7 and 2.8) Marathon Season 1 Marathon Season 2 (including the free weekend) Radon-222 (Most common isotope of Radon)
daily loss of population in % -0.05 (actually increased) 0.36 2.81 9.08
Half life in Days N/A 192 24.3 7.28

Conclusions

This implies that marathon's player retention is very poor, since other titles have both better retention and better player counts (Hunt Showdown). Season 2 also seems to specifically have bad player retention, but most likely the largest driver of this is the free week, which inflated player counts, but with very little retention. The question now is will player counts drop similarly to season 1 after this or according to the new rate?

Season 1

https://www.desmos.com/calculator/qwbi2ktljm

Season 2
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/hosh7jclh2

Dead By Daylight
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/ibibmhdat1

Hunt Showdown
https://www.desmos.com/calculator/vdabevzzfx

u/NecessaryKangaroo991 — 2 months ago