[SLD] Corn Maze Superdrop Financial Breakdown + Magiccon Atlanta Bonus
▲ 184 r/magicTCG

[SLD] Corn Maze Superdrop Financial Breakdown + Magiccon Atlanta Bonus

NEW SECRET LAIR ALERT

So I had this post all typed up yesterday and then fat fingered a page refresh and it wasn't saved... so second time's the charm (though might be a bit abbreviated)

Just a reminder since people continually misconstrue the purpose this analysis - this is not meant to be an assessment of whether the cards in these drops will have the same value after they release (they usually won't, especially in cases where the value listed below is of a rarely reprinted foil). We also know that these specific SLD versions of cards will usually retain (in aggregate) at least the combined value of what you pay for them even if the original version cheaper.

Rather, this is meant for the scenario of "if you were looking for the cards in these drops already, are you better off grabbing these or grabbing the cheapest version available on the market?" I also provide a metric of "per card premium" if the answer is no, so that you know how much more you are paying for the bling / art factor. Numbers come from Scryfall at time of writing, analysis does not factor in discount for bulk purchases on the website or shipping or any bundles.

In addition, I will note any first time reprints and foil versions, as well as any cards that are new to Secret Lair as part of an effort to decide if I want to get the drops for my SLD only cube.

Mothership Post for Corn Maze Superdrop - Sale time: 9am PT on Monday 10/12

Mothership Post for Magiccon Atlanta Festival in a Box - Sale time: 9am PT on Monday 10/19


Corn Maze - All Drops are $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

Secret Lair x Jim Henson's Labyrinth: Fear Me, Love Me

  • 1x Muxus, Goblin Grandee as "Jareth, Goblin King" - $10.02 nf / $121.72 f (first foil reprint since Goblinstorm SLD drop)
  • 1x Boggart Shenanigans as "Call Out the Goblins!" - $1.99 nf / $24.82 f (first foil reprint since LRW)
  • 1x Dance with Calamity as "Dance with Goblins" - $0.30 nf / NA foil (first foil version)
  • 1x Goblin Rabblemaster as "Goblin Cradle-Thieves" - $0.60 nf / $1.00 f
  • 1x Claim the Firstborn as "The Kidnapping of Toby" - $0.20 nf / $0.33 f
  • 1x Trinisphere as "I've Brought You a Gift" - $33.72 nf / $33.52 f
  • Total - $47.08 nf / $182.37 f + first Dance with Calamity foil

Per Card Premium - NA nf / NA f

New to SLD: Boggart Shenanigans / Dance with Goblins / Claim the Firstborn

Muxus may not be the most popular goblin commander (thanks Krenko) but this still works as a pretty good Goblin starter kit, especially with another foil version after the disaster that was the Goblinstorm SLD deck roll out. Trinishpere is a bit of an odd inclusion mechanically but brings decent value. Notable reprints include the the first foil reprint of Boggart Shenanigans, and the first nonfoil version of the previously precon only Dance with Calamity.

Secret Lair x Jim Henson's Labyrinth: Should You Need Us

  • 1x Jodah, the Unifier as "Sarah, Champion to the Lost" - $3.30 nf / $3.27 f
  • 1x Lu Xun, Scholar General as Reversible "Sir Didymus" (Reversible) - $0.31 nf / NA foil (first foil version)
  • 1x Kami of the Crescent Moon as "The Worm, Sagely Guide" - $7.88 nf / $21.62 f
  • 1x Kogla, the Titan Ape as "Ludo, Rock Caller" - $3.01 nf / $2.55 f
  • 1x Shigeki, Jukai Visionary as "The Wiseman, Eccentric Oracle" - $0.27 nf / $0.38 f (first foil since reprint since NEO)
  • 1x Wort, Boggart Auntie as "Hoggle, Heart in Conflict" - $29.48 nf / $158.49 f (first reprint since LRW)
  • Total - $44.25 nf / $186.31 f + first foil Lu Xun

Per Card Premium - NA nf / NA f

New to SLD: Lu Xun, Shigeki, Wort

The obligatory "lots of legendaries + Jodah" drop. At least we get Rebecca Guay art instead of Spongebob. Lu Xun getting his first ever foil version is notable, as is the first foil reprint for the BR Wort since Lorwyn. Kami of the Crescent Moon is also a respectable reprint, especially in foil.

Secret Lair x Jim Henson's Labyrinth: Through the Labyrinth

  • 1x Timely Ward as "Rescue in the 13th Hour" - $3.74 nf / NA foil (first foil version)
  • 1x Chronomantic Escape as "Under Jareth's Spell" - $2.72 nf / $11.99 f (first reprint since Future Sight)
  • 1x Delayed Blast Fireball as "Frenzy of the Fireys" - $14.85 nf / $15.25 f (first foil reprint since SLD Extra Life)
  • 1x Tempt with Discovery as "The Goblin King's Offer" - $2.67 nf / $5.91 f (first foil reprint since Tales of Middle Earth Commander)
  • 1x Leveler as "The Cleaners" - $4.02 nf / $3.80 f
  • 1x Thran Temporal Gateway as "Doors of Indecision" - $0.16 nf / $1.37 f (first reprint since DOM)
  • 1x Rogue's Passage as "Shaft of Hands" - $0.31 nf / $2.44 f
  • Total - $28.47 nf / $40.76 f + first foil Timely Ward

New to SLD: All except Delayed Blast Fireball and Rogue's Passage

Per Card Premium - $0.22 nf / NA f

A bit of a mishmash of miscellaneous spells to fill out your Sarah/Jodah deck. Timely Ward is notable as a decently played protection spell getting its first foil version, and both Chronomantic Escape and Delayed Fireball Blast having decent value, with their first reprint and first foil reprint respectively. At least we're getting 7 cards in this one.

Secret Lair x KPop Demon Hunters: How It's Done

  • 1x Dawn's Truce - $5.51 nf / $5.93 f
  • 1x Unbreakable Formation - $0.75 nf / $1.44 f
  • 1x Freed from the Real - $6.89 nf / $15.45 f
  • 1x Swan Song - $10.72 nf / $30 f
  • 1x Demonic Counsel - $1.82 nf / $2.5 f (first reprint since DSK)
  • 1x Tempt with Immortality - $1.55 nf / NA f (first time foil / first reprint since C13)
  • 1x Underworld Breach - $7.08 nf / $10.46 f
  • Total - $34.32 nf / $65.78 f + first foil Tempt with Immortality

New to SLD: Demonic Counsel, Tempt with Immortality

Per Card Premium - NA nf / NA f

To be honest it's a bit hard to judge this as a package since it's been announced we're going to get more KPDH cards in the future - so hard to see how these cards will slot into the eventual legendary creatures they pick for the main characters. On a value perspective, Dawn of Truce is pretty solid, Freed from the Real is a combo piece for infnite mana with any mana dork that taps for more than 1, Swan Song is a best in class one mana counterspell, Demonic Counsel is a Diabolic Tutor with a bit of effort, and Underworld Breach is of course a win con in Vintage and cEDH and Cube. Notable is Tempt with Immortality getting its first foil version with topless hot guy Jinu - tempting indeed. Also again 7 cards is nice.

Secret Lair x Marvel: Zombies

  • 1x Unstoppable Slasher - $4.42 nf / $5.17 f
  • 1x Zombie Apocalypse - $0.55 nf / $7.82 f
  • 1x Vogar, Necropolis Tyrant as "Zombie Giant-Man" - NA nf (first nonfoil version) / $12.31 f
  • 1x God-Eternal Bontu as "Zombie Thor" - $0.30 nf / $6.42 f
  • 1x Wilhelt, the Rotcleaver as "Zombie Captain America" - $9.63 nf / $10.91 f
  • 1x Varina, Lich Queen as "Zombie Scarlet Witch" - $4.26 nf / $4.11 f
  • Total - $19.16 nf + first nonfoil Vogar / $46.74 f

New to SLD: Unstoppable Slasher, Vogar, Bontu,

Per Card Premium - TBD nf (breakeven if Vogar is $10.83) / NA f

A zombie drop for the spooky time of the year. One of the weird quirks of this one is we are getting a first time nonfoil version (as opposed to the more common first time foil version) from the Game Nights Free For All supplemental product of Vogar. Otherwise, Wilhelt and Varina are the #1 and #3 zombie commanders (and Wilhelt #50 overall) and solid commanders that work with all these cards. In particular Varina being an alternate Scarlet Witch may give it a waifu premium here.

Artist Series: Veronique Meignaud

  • 1x Bloodsoaked Champion - $0.31 nf / $1.99 f (first foil reprint since KTK)
  • 1x Voldaren Pariah // Abolisher of Bloodlines - $0.45 nf / $0.45 f (first non-List reprint since EMN)
  • 1x Ashnod's Altar - $13.98 nf / $19.23 f
  • 1x Cabal Stronghold - $12.28 f / $20.59 f (first reprint since DOM)
  • Total - $27.02 nf / $42.26 f

New to SLD: Bloodsoaked Stalker, Voldaren Pariah, Cabal Stronghold

Per Card Premium - $0.74 nf / NA f

Bit of a shame that artist drops are often only 4 cards, and I was a bit nervous pulling prices after the first two. Thankfully Ashnod's Altar and Cabal Stronghold came in to make up for it. This works as a nice aristocrats package between a reusable sac fodder, two sac outlets, and a nice bit of ramp for monoblack, even if Stronghold is no Coffers.

Manufactured Grounds by See Machine

  • 1x Ancient Den - $1.40 nf / $18.6 f
  • 1x Seat of the Synod -$0.88 nf / $45.17 f
  • 1x Vault of Whispers - $4.16 nf / $10.43 f
  • 1x Great Furnace - $2.50 nf / $8.72 f
  • 1x Tree of Tales - $1.36 nf / $15.24 f
  • Total - $10.30 nf / $98.16 f

New to SLD: None

Per Card Premium - $3.94 nf / NA f

So we've actually had this exact drop (with different art) back in 2021 - Mirrodinsanity. These lands are msotly played in pauper for affinity, though Seat of the Synod does see play in Sewer-Cam Combo in Legacy, hence the higher foil price. Notably since there is an equivalent drop, a bit of comparison - five years on, a sealed Mirrodinsanity Non Foil is currently $85 on TCGPlayer, and Foil is $150

Peace, Love, & Treefolk

  • 1x Dauntless Dourbark - $4.44 nf / $6.57 f
  • 1x Leaf-Crowned Elder - $8.42 nf / $18.17 f (first foil reprint since MOR)
  • 1x Timber Protector - $22.94 nf / $34.87 f
  • 1x Treefolk Harbinger - $6.44 nf / $15.65 f (first reprint since LRW)
  • 1x Doran, the Siege Tower - $8.08 nf / $11.31 f
  • Total - $50.32 nf / $86.57 f

New to SLD: All

Per Card Premium - NA nf / NA f

Arguably my most anticipated from this drop - this is a perfect combination of being a bunch of rarely reprinted cards, a nice starter kit (either for a deck or as a package in my SLD cube), and great value with whimsical art. No notes.


Bonus - Magiccon Atlanta

Generally the Mystery Booster 2 boxes were $250, which is MSRP for this drop, so all the bonus cards are basically gravy on top of that.

  • Parallax Tide - $14.78 nf / $199.99 f - first reprint since NEM (not counting gold border)
  • Regrowth - $0.48 nf / $1.18 f
  • Viridian Revel - $1.44 nf / $14.39 f - first reprint since SOM
  • Assassin's Trophy - $0.97 nf / $1.74 f
  • Dance of the Dead - $15.20 f / NA nf - first reprint since ICE / first ever foil
  • Tymna - $10.88 nf / $31.54 f
  • Tana - $5.27 nf / $4.85 f

New to SLD - all except Regrowth and Assassin's Trophy

The Parallax Tide, Viridian REvel and Dance of the Dead repritns are very nice, especially the first ever foil Dance (though as a super rare card, there might be better options for textless). Tymna is the most popular partner commander, with Tana being her third most common pairing.


Bundle + Bonus

The bonus card for spending $199 (ie any bundle) is Maze of ith skinned as the Labyrinth - about $9 in foil.

I did all this math yesterday but basically you get no discount for the all non-foil and all-foil bundles vs buying the 8 bundles individually. You get about a $20 discount on the everything bundle. The cheapest version of all cards in all bundles are above MSRP, on top of the bundle bonus and the first time versions.


TLDR - my own subjective score combining taste / price / bundleability (how they play as a single deck or cube package).

  • Labyrinth: Fear Me, Love Me - 4/5 nonfoil / 4.5/5 foil
  • Labyrinth: Should You Need Us - 3.5/5 nonfoil / 4/5 foil
  • Labyrinth: Through the Labyrinth - 3/5 nonfoil / 3/5 foil
  • KPop Demon Hunters: How It's Done - 3.5/5 nonfoil / 3.5/5 foil
  • Marvel: Zombies - 3.5/5 nonfoil / 4/5 foil
  • Veronique Meignaud - 4/5 nonfoil / 4.5/5 foil
  • Manufactured Grounds by See Machine - 2/5 nonfoil / 4/5 foil
  • Peace, Love, & Treefolk - 5/5 nonfoil / 5/5 foil

Will try my shot at getting the nonfoil bundle.

u/Ninjaboi333 — 4 days ago
▲ 88 r/oscarsdeathrace+2 crossposts

Prepping for Oscars Death Race - Time to PVOD and Time to Streaming by Studio - An Original Analysis

For folks like myself who engage with the Oscars by partaking of the Oscars Death Race (ie watching every nominee in all categories before the Oscars ceremony), one of the more stressful parts (especially for folks not based in NY or LA) is counting down to whether or not films will be available on PVOD or streaming in time, especially if they released later in the race. While for the most part it's been mostly possible to get most of the race done digitally, for folks who are lucky enough to be attending film festivals this weekend, it may behoove them to prioritize films that won't be easily accessible or may cut it close. And for films from certain distributors (cough Godzilla Minus One cough Boy and the Heron), if you miss it in theaters you may be out of luck entirely.

Below is a breakdown of the nominees from last year by studio, the number of days to PVOD and to streaming (and on which service), and then the films from said studio and their release dates and estimated PVOD / streaming date. Note that I am being a bit generous with things that could possibly be nominated even they are not currently favorites to be so (see Hexed from WDAS for animated).

For those trying to finish as much of the race prior to nominations, the target date is Jan 21, 2027

For those trying to finish the race before hte ceremony, the target date is Mar 14, 2027

Also as is often the case on reddit, this is a US Centric list. YMMV if you live in another country.


A24

Last year, Marty Supreme, If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, and Smashing Machine took between 32 and 47 days to come to PVOD, and between 112 and 120 days to come to streaming on HBO Max (due to the agreement between A24 and WBD)

This year's films from A24 are

  • The Drama - 4/3 Release - Already on HBO Max
  • Backrooms - 5/29 Release - Already on PVOD - 9/26 Est SVOD
  • The Invite - 6/26 Release - Already on PVOD - 10/24 Est SVOD
  • Tony - 8/7 Release - PVOD on 9/15 - 12/5 Est SVOD
  • Primetime - 9/25 Release - 11/3 Est PVOD - 1/23 Est SVOD
  • Misty Green - 10/9 Release - 11/17 Est PVOD - 2/6 Est SVOD
  • You Can See Everything - 10/16 Release - 11/24 Est PVOD - 2/13 Est SVOD
  • Club Kid - 11/6 Release - 12/15 Est PVOD - 3/6 Est SVOD
  • The Debut - 12/11 Release - 1/19 Est PVOD - 4/10 Est SVOD

Apple

Apple's main films this year already have their SVOD on AppleTV+ dates announced, so no worries here

  • Tenzing - 10/16
  • Being Heumann - 11/13

Disney / Pixar / 20th Century / Searchlight

First the animated films. Elio (Pixar) was 60 days to PVOD and 89 days to SvOD on Disney+. Zootpia 2 (WDAS) was 62 days to SVOD and 105 days to SVOD. Thus looking at Disney's animated slate this year

  • Hoppers (Pixar) - 3/3 Release - Already on Disney+
  • Toy Story 5 (Pixar) - 6/19 Release - Already on PVOD - 9/23 Release on Disney+
  • Hexed (WDAS) - 11/25 Release - 1/24 Est PVOD - 3/10 Est SVOD

For live action films, Avatar last year was 102 days to PVOD and 187 on SVOD. Though I think that is a bit of a unique case due to how much its theatrical box office was. Unfortunately Searchlight did not have a nominated film for comparison - instead I'll use Rental Family and Testament of Ann Lee as comparisons, plus A Complete Unknown from the year before. These films had an average of 63 days to PVOD and 92 days to SVOD on Hulu. Springsteen Deliver Me from Nowhere from 20th Century also had about 60 / 90 days for PVOD SVOD respectively.

  • Devil Wears Prada 2 (20th Centruy) - 5/1 Release - Already on Hulu
  • Whalefall (20th Century) - 10/16 Release - 12/15 Est PVOD - 1/14 Est SVOD
  • Wild Hose Nine (Searchlight) - 11/6 Release - 1/15 Est PVOD - 2/4 Est SVOD
  • Behemoth (Searchlight) - 12/4 Release - 2/2 Est PVOD - 3/4 Est SVOD

GKIDS + Toho

Last Year GKIDS was responsible for Little Amelie, which had a Oct 31 Theatrical release and a Dec 9 PVOD release - that is 39 days. Notably Little Amelie is not yet on a streaming platform.

For Shaun the Sheep, coming out 9/18, that is a comfortable 10/27 PVOD date.

This year GKIDS also has Godzilla Minus Zero releasing 11/3. While that may imply that it will be on PVOD by Dec 12, I suspect that it will play closer to the Godzilla Minus One release by Toho, where it took until June 1 2024 after its Dec 1 2023 release before it came to streaming - Exactly 6 months after its theatrical release. If you missed it outside of its 9 week theatrical window (from Dec 1 to Jan 26), you were out of luck. GKIDS similarly handled the Boy and the Heron release with a Dec 8 release > June 25 PVOD release > Sep 6 SVOD release. (At the very least it's not Kokuho which still has not come out on PVOD or Streaming as far as I'm aware)

IFC

Last year they released Memoir of a Snail on 10/25, and on PVOD 11/26, and on SVOD on AMC+ on 1/17 - that is 32 days to PVOD and 84 days to SVOD. So for Tangles (which does not yet have a release date), it would need to come out by 2/9 to be available on PVOD by the ceremony, and by 12/19 to be available by streaming.

MGM/Amazon

As an Amazon company, their films ultimately will end up on Prime. Fortunately the biggest film thus far (Project Hail Mary) is already on Prime. For future reference, it took 53 days to get to PVOD and 105 days to get to SVOD (technically it did come in 90 days but to MGM+ - the 105 day is for Amazon Prime).

  • I Play Rocky - 11/6 Release Date - Est 12/29 PVOD - Est 2/19 to SVOD

MUBI

MUBI took last year off after doing well with The Substance. The Substance released on 9/20/24 and came to both MUBI and VOD 10/31, or 41 days.

  • Fatherland - 10/23 Release - Est 12/3 to MUBI
  • Minotaur - 11/20 Release - Est 12/31 to MUBI
  • Coward - 12/25 Release - Est 2/4 to MUBI
  • Rose - TBD release (November)

Neon

Last year Neon's 5 nominated films ranged from 32 (Arco) to 69 (Secret Agent) days to PVOD with an average of 51 days / median of 46. For SVOD, the total days ranged from 59 (Sirat) to 137 (It Was Just An Accident) with an average of 109, and the median of 119. Neon films end up on Hulu for streaming.

Taking the higher between the average and median above (51 for PVOD / 119 for SVOD):

  • Hope - 9/9 Release - 10/30 Est PVOD - 1/6 Est SVOD
  • Fjord - 10/9 Release - 11/29 Est PVOD - 2/5 Est SVOD
  • Once Upon a Time in Harlem - 10/16 Release - 12/6 Est PVOD - 2/12 Est SVOD
  • Paper Tiger - 11/13 Release - 1/3 Est PVOD - 3/12 Est SVOD
  • All of a Sudden - 11/25 Release - 1/15 Est PVOD - 3/24 Est SVOD
  • Artificial - 12/25 Release - 2/14 Est PVOD - 4/23 Est SVOD
  • The Unknown - no release date yet

Netflix

As with Apple, all of Netflix's films are already dated for their streaming release.

  • Possible Love - 11/6 (10/23 theatrical)
  • Gentle Monster - 11/18 (10/30 theatrical)
  • La Bola Ngra - 12/4 (11/6 theatrical)
  • In Waves - 12/11
  • Ray Gunn - 12/18
  • Cliff Booth - 12/23 (11/25 IMAX only theatrical)
  • Ink - 1/8 (12/11 theatrical)

Paramount

Paramount did not have a nominee last year. However they do have a 45 day to PVOD as per Cinemacon 2026. It's also been 90 days to SVOD on Paramount+ for releases this year.

  • By Any Means (aka Diane Warren movie) - 9/4 Release - 10/19 PVOD - 12/3 SVOD
  • Ebenezer - 11/13 Release - 12/28 PVOD - 2/11 SVOD
  • Mr Irrelevant - 12/25 Release - 2/8 PVOD - 3/25 SVOD

Sony

The only Sony nominated film last year was Blue Moon, which came to PVOD after 39 days and then to Netflix (as per Sony and Netflix's agreement) 120 days after release. A similar timeline for their films would be

  • Social Reckoning - 10/9 Release Date - 11/17 Est PVOD - 2/6 Est SVOD
  • Klara and the Sun - 10/23 Release Date - 12/1 Est PVOD - 2/20 Est SVOD
  • I Swear - 4/24 Release Already on Streaming
  • Bedford Park - 9/22 Release Date - 10/31 Est PVOD - 1/20 Est SVOD
  • Ha Chan Shake Your Booty - 9/25 Release Date - 11/3 Est PVOD - 1/23 Est SVOD
  • Only Living Pickpocket in NY - 10/16 Release Date - 11/24 Est PVOD - 2/13 Est SVOD
  • Bitter Christmas - 11/13 Release Date - 12/22 Est PVOD - 3/13 Est SVOD
  • Prima Facie - No release date yet. Would need to release by 2/2 to come to PVOD
  • The Bunker - No release date yet. Would need to release by 2/2 to come to PVOD
  • Iron Boy - No release date yet. Would need to release by 2/2 to come to PVOD

Universal / Focus

On the Universal side, Jurassic World had 34 days between theatrical and PVOD, and 120 days to SVOD on Peacock. Of course with Odyssey, Nolan has a special deal. It released on PVOD 133 days after release and took 220 days to get to streaming.

On the Focus side, there were 3 films ranging from 19 days to PVOD (Song Sung Blue) to 69 days (nice - Hamnet). For SVOD, it ranged from 43 days (Bugonia) to 100 days (Hamnet). I'll assume a worst case scenario (ie Hamnet) below for Focus Feature films, except for Werwulf. Since we have a good comp with Nosferatu, I'll use those numbers (31 to PVOD / 58 to SVOD)

  • Odyssey - 7/17 release - 11/17 PVOD release confirmed - 2/22 Est SVOD
  • Disclosure Day - 6/12 Release - Already on PVOD - Est 10/10 SVOD
  • Obsession - 5/15 Release - Already on Peacock
  • Pressure - 5/29 Release - Already on Peacock
  • The Uprising - 9/10 Release - Est 11/18 PVOD - Est 12/19 SVOD
  • Sense and Sensibility - 10/16 Release - Est 12/24 PVOD - Est 1/24 SVOD
  • Elsinore - 11/20 Release - Est 1/28 PVOD - Est 2/28 SVOD
  • Werwulf - 12/25 Release - Est 1/25 PVOD - Est 2/21 SVOD

WBD

Last year their 3 nominees (Sinners / OBAA / Weapons) came out to PVOD an average of 42 days after, and to SVOD on HBOMax an average of 79 days after. This tracks even for Dune 2 in 2024.

  • Wuthering Heights - 2/13 Release - Already on HBO Max
  • Digger - 10/2 Release - Est 11/13 PVOD - Est 12/20 SVOD
  • Clayface - 10/23 Release - Est 12/4 PVOD - Est 1/10 SVOD
  • Dune 3 - 12/18 Release - Est 1/29 PVOD - Est 3/7 SVOD

Miscellaneous Films

  • Michael - Lionsgate hasn't really been Oscar relevant much, but on the off chance it does get a nom, it is already on SVOD
  • Wildwood - Fathom Entertainment I don't think has ever really done a big film release like this, so I have no idea what their time to PVOD will be, or even if they have any agreements in place to bring the film to SVOD and what their strategy would be.
  • Wicker - 10/23 Release Date. Blackbear Pictures also released Tuner this year on 5/22, and it came to PVOD 6/23, so I'd expect a late November PVOD release for Wicker.
  • Josephine - Sumerian is a fairly new distributor and thus we have very little idea of how it'll do. The most notable film they've done is Queen of the Ring that released 3/7/25 and later came out 5/9/25 on PVOD (not yet on any SVOD service). That is 61 days, so based on Josephine's 11/20 release date, PVOD would be 1/20/27

TLDR

Films at risk of not coming to PVOD by 3/13 - see these films in theaters to stave off the chance they don't come to PVOD in time and you miss out on them entirely

  • Godzilla Minus Zero (GKIDS/Toho)
  • Wildwood (Fathom/Laika)

Films at risk of not coming to SVOD by 3/13 - see these early if you don't want to rent them at home / budget accordingly

  • Club Kid (A24 - Est 3/6)
  • The Debut - (A24 - Est 4/10)
  • Hexed - (WDAS - Est 3/10)
  • Paper Tiger (Neon - Est 3/12)
  • All of a Sudden (Neon - Est 3/24)
  • Artificial (Neon - Est 4/23)
  • Mr Irrelevant (Paramount - Est 3/25)
  • Bitter Christmas (Sony - Est 3/13)
  • Dune 3 (WBD - Est 3/7)

Films at risk of missing PVOD by 1/21 - For the real degenerates who want to see everything before nominations

  • The Debut (A24 - 1/19 PVOD Est)
  • Hexed (WDAS - 1/24 PVOD Est)
  • Wild Horse Nine (Searchlight - 1/15 PVOD Est)
  • Behemoth (Searchlight - 2/2 PVOD Est)
  • Coward (MUBI - 2/4 PVOD Est)
  • All of a Sudden (Neon - 1/15 PVOD Est)
  • Artificial (Neon - 2/14 PVOD Est)
  • Mr Irrelevant (Paramount - 2/8 PVOD Est)
  • Elsinore (Focus - 1/28 PVOD Est)
  • Werwulf (Focus - 1/25 PVOD Est)
  • Dune 3 (WBD - 1/29 PVOD Est)
  • Josephine (Sumerian - 1/20 PVOD Est)

Undated Films - dates are latest date to be avail on PVOD by 3/13)

  • Tangles (IFC - must release by 2/9)
  • The Unknown (Neon - must release by 1/26)
  • Iron Boy (Sony - must release by 2/2)
  • Prima Facie (Sony - must release by 2/2)
  • The Bunker (Sony - must release by 2/2)
reddit.com
u/IntroductionLazy2057 — 1 month ago
▲ 140 r/magicTCG

[SLD] A Marvelous Mathoms (Hobbit) + A Perfectly Normal Superdrop Financial Breakdown

NEW SECRET LAIR ALERT

We are halfway through the drops showcased at MagicCon Atlanta - hope you were able to get your print to demand Hatsune Miku precon deck. Now that we have all the details of the Hobbit superdrop, in this point I will breakdown the financial value to be found on August 17th, as well as the Perfectly Normal Superdrop that I think we should know everything about coming out on August 31st. If anything comes up between now and then, depending on how impactful it is I may or may not make a new post.


Just a reminder since people continually misconstrue the purpose this analysis - this is not meant to be an assessment of whether the cards in these drops will have the same value after they release (they usually won't, especially in cases where the value listed below is of a rarely reprinted foil). We also know that these specific SLD versions of cards will usually retain (in aggregate) at least the combined value of what you pay for them even if the original version cheaper.

Rather, this is meant for the scenario of "if you were looking for the cards in these drops already, are you better off grabbing these or grabbing the cheapest version available on the market?" I also provide a metric of "per card premium" if the answer is no, so that you know how much more you are paying for the bling / art factor. Numbers come from Scryfall at time of writing, analysis does not factor in discount for bulk purchases on the website or shipping or any bundles.

In addition, I will note any first time reprints and foil versions, as well as any cards that are new to Secret Lair as part of an effort to decide if I want to get the drops for my SLD only cube.

Marvelous Mathoms Drop WotC post here

Perfectly Normal Superdrop from MC Amsterdam panel (timestamped)


Marvelous Mathoms Superdrop

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Second Breakfast and Beyond - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 7x Food Tokens

Per Card Premium - $4.28 nonfoil / $5.71 NA foil

New to Secret Lair - NA

Look if you really want an official set of LOTR themed food tokens for your Hobbit food deck that references the very important seven meals a Hobbit eats, by all means knock yourself out. But much like basic lands, you are 100% paying for the art here (which hey if you were going to commission an artist to make 7 unique pieces of art for tokens, would probably be more expensive than what you're paying for this drop). For what it's worth, a quick Google Search shows Etsy shops with food tokens at about $4-5 per token. The cheapest I saw was $7.50 for 5, and that's all the same art.

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Over the Edge of the Wild - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Cloudshift - $1.09 nonfoil / $3.11 foil
  • Tocasia's Welcome as "Quite a Merry Gathering"- $0.74 nonfoil / $2.60 foil - first foil reprint
  • Stony Silence - $0.63 nonfoil / $11.34 foil
  • Imp's Mischief - $6.93 nonfoil / $9.80 foil
  • Seize the Spoils - $0.26 nonfoil / $0.36 foil
  • Total - $9.65 nonfoil / $27.21 foil

Per Card Premium - $4.06 nonfoil / $2.56 foil

New to Secret Lair: All cards

First the positives - the stop motion inspired art by Jordan Speer is full of the whimsy I love out of Secret lair. These are all also fairly interesting new to Secret Lair prints of cards that could fit into a mid-powered cube. Stony Silence also getting its first foil reprint in nearly 10 years is kind of crazy. That aside, outside of those two specific cases (wanting this specific art and/or wanting a SLD only cube), the kind of random assortment of cards doesn't even let you play them all in one deck - there isn't even a 5c LOTR commander since Aragorn excludes black, and other BRx commanders exclude white. And that's not even touching the abysmal financial value of getting cheaper versions of these cards if you were looking for them for a deck.

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Smaug's Spoils - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Fellwar Stone as "Erebor Heirloom" - $0.91 nonfoil / $7.43 foil
  • Lightning Greaves - $4.29 nonfoil / $4.77 foil
  • Liquimetal Torque - $2.84 nonfoil / $4.11 foil
  • Sol Ring - $1.08 nonfoil / $1.32 foil
  • Thought Vessel - $2.57 nonfoil / $2.67 foil
  • Total - $11.69 nonfoil / $20.30 foil

Per Card Premium - $3.66 nonfoil / $3.94 foil

New to Secret Lair: Liquimetal Torque

I really should just memorize what the obligatory "here are a bunch of artifacts for your commander deck" card prices are so that it's easier for me to price these particular drops. Because yep, here is an obligatory drop full of generically good artifact pieces so that you can play an on theme Sol Ring in your UB deck. At least Liquimetal Torque is kind of a unique reprint (this is only its third ever printing after MH2 and BRC)

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Desolation - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Defile- $1.44 nonfoil / $2.99 foil
  • Diabolic Intent - $15.61 nonfoil / $16.85 foil
  • Dread Return - $0.46 nonfoil / $0.44 foil
  • Mirkwood Bats - $1.25 nonfoil / $1.82 foil - first reprint since LOTR
  • Read the Bones - $0.21 nonfoil / $0.40 foil
  • Total - $18.97 nonfoil / $22.50 foil

Per Card Premium - $2.20 nonfoil / $3.49 foil

New to Secret Lair: Diabolic Intent, Dread Return, Mirkwood Bats

First off, once again awesome art, though admittedly the black and white super intricate metal album style does make these kind of hard to read, especially Dread Return. That said, being a mono black drop makes this a pretty starter kit / bundle for any Bx deck out there. As seems to be the case, it is lacking a bit in value overall though a Diabolic Reprint is always nice, as is the first reprint of token powerhouse Mirkwood bats (though as a common its price was already pretty low) - it is played in 8.63% of all EDH black decks, the highest of any of these cards. Which given all the treasure and other trinket tokens running around makes sense.

Secret Lair x The Hobbit: He Who Walks Unseen - $59.99 "Out of Sight" foil (note this is the only version available, no non-foil)

  • Arcane Heist - $2.81 nonfoil / NA foil - first reprint since OTC / first foil version
  • Contentious Plan - $0.42 nonfoil / $4.75 foil - first reprint since WAR
  • Curiosity - $0.78 nonfoil / $1.56 foil
  • Solve the Equation - $3.87 nonfoil / $3.33 foil
  • Windfall - $4.68 nonfoil / $9.93 foil
  • Total - $12.56 nonfoil / $19.57 foil

Per Card Premium - $9.49 nonfoil / $8.08ish foil (depending on foil value of Arcane Heist)

New to Secret Lair: Arcane Heist, Contentious Plan

These apparently have a special kind of foiling on them. I do love the old illustrated book feel of these cards. But my wallet does not love the fact that this is $10 more than the normal foil versions, and arguably a worse per card premium than the tokens. Think about that for a minute. You are paying between an $8-10 premium per card for the art and foiling in this drop, compared to the ~$5-6 per card premium for unique art for food tokens. I mean if you really wanted to bling out your monoblue Bilbo Thief in the Night EDH deck then by all means go for it. But other than that it's a hard sell for me.

Bundle Value

Note that for the bundles, the overpriced He Who Walks Unseen drop is NOT included in any of the bundles. So you are only getting the 4 other bundles and you must add the $60 drop separately to your cart.

There is also an Arcane Signet themed as "Heart of the Mountain" (that really should have been a Coveted Jewel) for spending $199 total. Note that getting the Nonfoil Bundle + the He Who Walks Unseen drop will only get you to $179.95 so you need to get both the Foil bundle and the special foil drop to qualify.

  • A Marvelous Mathoms Everything Bundle - Foil + Nonfoil everything - $259.99 - The 8 drops would be $279.99 separately - Current market value of cheapest version of cards: $110.21 + 14 tokens.
  • Riddles in the Dark Foil Bundle - Foil only bundle - $150.99 - The 4 drops would be $159.99 separately - Current market value of cheapest version of cards: $70.01+ 7 tokens.
  • The Bag-End Non-Foil Bundle - Nonfoil only bundle - $119.96 - The 4 drops would be $119.96 so no discount - Current market value of cheapest version of cards: $40.20 + 7 tokens.

A Perfectly Normal Superdrop

Note that we do NOT have prices for these yet as Wizards has not put out an official article for these. I am going to assume these use the same $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil pricing. Even with the Marvel drops, the Spiderman drops last year had the same pricing - I think the inflated price only comes with charity drops or with mechanically unique cards. Of course the subjects of this section are subject to change with any reveals that I'm not anticipating.

Gene Luen Yang - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Kibo, Uktabi Prince as "Monkey, Awakened to Emptiness" - $13.68 nonfoil / $8.24 foil - first reprinting since J22
  • Ilharg, the Raze-Boar as "Pigsy of the Eight Precepts" - $8.65 nonfoil / $11.19 foil
  • Kazuul, Tyrant of the Cliffs as "Sandy, Awakened to Purity" - $0.18 nonfoil / $0.65 foil
  • Dosan the Falling Leaf as "Tripitaka, Seeker from Tang" - $26.24 nonfoil / $135.30 foil - first reprinting since CHK
  • Quest for Renewal - $4.99 nonfoil / $30.45 foil - first reprinting since WWK
  • Total - $53.74 nonfoil / $185.83 foil

Per Card Premium - $NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: All except Ilharg

Dragonball finally gets a Secret Lair! (IYKYK) In all seriousness, excited to see Gene Luen Yang get a SLD as I've been a fan since American Born Chinese. And boy they gave his drop some great value. First, being able to play it all as a Wukong deck led by Kibo is very on point. Kibo himself is pretty popular at #133 on EDHREC. While Kazuul/Sandy isn't the best value, getting another copy of Ilharg is always fun. But the real standout is of course Dosan getting his first reprint since Champions of Kamigawa. That's probably why his foil value is so high and I wouldn't expect this version to be worth that much later on, but if you were ever thinking about getting Dosan, this is a good opportunity to do so.

Marvel: Pets - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Ephemerate - $4.69 nonfoil / $9.07 foil
  • Shark Typhoon - $1.52 nonfoil / $2.54 foil
  • Lightning Bolt - $0.76 nonfoil / $1.51 foil
  • Searing Blaze - $0.57 nonfoil / $7.55 foil - first foil reprint since WWK
  • Commune with Dinosaurs - $0.14 nonfoil / $0.29 foil - first reprinting since WWK
  • Titanic Ultimatum - $2.50 / $13.39
  • Total - $10.18 nonfoil / $34.35 foil

Per Card Premium - $3.28 nonfoil / $0.94 foil

New to Secret Lair: Searing Blaze, Comme with Dinosaurs

The first of 4 Marvel drops in this super drop, the pets one... leaves a bit lacking. Ephermerate is always a good include as a 6% include in EDH and part of Modern and Pauper decks. Shark Typhoon has a role in Pioneer (though how well supported Pioneer is is another matter). Bolt is of course ever present but we've been inundated with so many SLD versions. Searing Blaze mostly sees play in RDW in Modern and pauper, and is getting its first foil reprint. Commune with Dinos is strictly for Dino EDH decks, if that. We just got a Titanic ultimatum SLD version (2 in fact) and that's not even in 2% of eligible Naya decks. So overall a bit lacking financially here. And Jeff / Shark Typhoon kind of make it hard to play all of these in one deck. At least we're getting six cards in this one?

Marvel: Hulk - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Anger - $0.54 nonfoil / $8.41 foil
  • Gratuitous Violence - $0.70 nonfoil / $0.36 foil
  • Rishkar's Expertise as "Joe Fixit's Expertise" - $3.66 nonfoil / $4.24 foil
  • Search for Tomorrow - $0.22 nonfoil / $0.39 foil
  • Unnatural Growth - $2.45 nonfoil / $3.11 foil
  • Total - $7.57 nonfoil / $16.51 foil

Per Card Premium - $4.48 nonfoil / $4.69 foil

New to Secret Lair: Gratuitous Violence, Rishkar's Expertise, Search for Tomorrow

HULK... ANGRY... that his SLD drop is full of cards with minimal value. I mean credit to them for getting art from across Hulk's history and also keeping them in the appropriate RG color pair for your Gamma commander deck which I'm sure these will be bought for. And the effects are frankly thematic and appropriate - Rishkar's Expertise is by far the most played at about 9% of green decks. But it just kind of sucks for the big guy that you can get much cheaper versions currently. But if you are going all out to try to bling out a Hulk themed deck, then I mean you just gotta ask yourself if that per card premium is worth having a Hulk themed Anger in your deck (imo it totally is).

Marvel: True Believers in Love - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Happily Ever After - $0.27 nonfoil / $0.50 foil
  • True Love's Kiss - $0.09 nonfoil / $0.27 foil - first foil reprint
  • Run Away Together - $0.11 nonfoil / $0.18 foil
  • Savor the Moment - $9.31 nonfoil / $8.41 foil
  • Grave Pact - $29.13 nonfoil / $33.84 foil
  • Thrill of Possibility - $0.17 nonfoil / $0.25 foil
  • Total - $39.08 nonfoil / $43.54 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: True Love's Kiss, Run Away Together

While most of this drop value wise is pretty whatever (even if the ships portrayed on them are some fan favorites), the elephant in the room is of course the reprint of Grave Pact with an even more iconic ship of Thanos x Death. That by itself makes this drop worth a buy as even the cheapest version of Grave Pact is about the value of the drop. Add on only the 3rd ever version of Savor the Moment (the other being a Ral x Tomik SLD), and you've got decent value here. You could even feasibly play all of these in a 5c romance / couples themed deck since Happily Ever After requires you to have all 5 colors in play.

Marvel: Featuring Dan Hipp - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Mystical Dispute - $0.47 nonfoil / $4.79 foil - first nonpromo/MB2 reprint
  • An Offer You Can't Refuse - $2.44 nonfoil / $3.50 foil
  • Training Grounds - $7.88 nonfoil / $8.04 foil
  • Bristly Bill, Spine Sower as "Man-Thing, Marsh Protector" - $38.90 nonfoil / $41.00 foil - first reprint
  • Endrek Sahr, Master Breeder as "Mister Sinister, Hubris Unbound" - $1.68 nonfoil / $3.87 foil
  • Total - $51.37 nonfoil / $53.16 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: All except An Offer You Can't Refuse (which was a Secret Lair Promo technically)

As someone who played Marvel Snap for a solid year, I am very familiar with Dan Hipp's work so it's kind of bizarre to see his work on Marvel cards for Magic (he did do a Questing Beast for Secret Lair Countdown, so technically not his first Magic card). Kind of funny that instead of Man Thing being a 4 cost 7 power creature that reduces 3 cost and lower cards by 2 power, he's Bristly freaking Bill. Which also crazy that they're reprinting a Standard Staple into SLD (albeit with Bill being legal through early next year with Nauctis). However even outside Standard he def has a place in EDH landfall decks and certainly in various cubes that support landfall. This card alone again makes this drop worth the price. Training Grounds is another pricey card included here (mostly due to how broken reducing activated ability costs can be). An offer you can't refuse is included in 26% of EDH decks at this point so it's a certified staple, while Mystical Dispute is a Modern staple showing up in any number of sideboards. Endrek Shar is probably the odd one out in terms of playability and value here, but still a nice bit of nostalgia (and TBD if we get a token included here).

Ian Miller - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Shivan Dragon - $0.09 nonfoil / $0.20 foil
  • Animar, Soul of Elements - $26.96 nonfoil / $38.49 foil
  • Korvold, Fae-Cursed King - $0.49 nonfoil / $4.60 foil
  • Tsabo Tavoc - $0.59 nonfoil / $45.58 foil - first foil reprint since Invasion / first non List reprint
  • Total - $28.13 nonfoil / $78.87 foil

Per Card Premium - $0.47 nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Tsabo Tavoc

The renowned British illustrator who's done covers of HP Lovecraft books and worked on Ralph Bakshi films lends his art to Secret Lair, in a drop that is basically Animar the drop + friends. Most of whom have already been printed in SLD before. Animar is of course super popular (43rd most popular commander) with a variety of build styles. Korvold is also popular at 63rd (though being printed in the 99 of a precon tanked his value). Shivan Dragon is of course a classic, if powercrept. And Tsabo Tavoc is a crazy throwback - though don't let that foil value fool you, that's more from the scarcity of the original foils than actual value. Personally if you really like Miller's artstyle then go for it, especially if you wanted an Animar. Otherwise you can do better (the nonfoil isn't even breaking MSRP).

Lofi Girl - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Felidar Guardian as "Lofi Cat" - $2.45 nonfoil / $11.81 foil

  • Starfield of Nyx as "Snowman Starfield" - $13.69 nonfoil / $73.24 foil - first foil reprint

  • Careful Study - $2.88 nonfoil / $10.53 foil (SLD version from TCG)

  • Merchant Scroll as "Grandma's Scroll" - $4.24 nonfoil / $29.46 foil - first non MB2 version since Eighth Edition

  • Paradise Mantle as "Cozy Headphones" - $8.66 nonfoil / $33.81 foil -

  • Total - $31.92 nonfoil / $158.85 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Starfield of Nyx, Merchant Scroll

Probably the UB crossover I expected least (aside from the Office), but frankly if it brings some dope reprints like this one, I don't mind. Felidar Guardian is the part of hte infamous emergency ban worthy combo with Saheeli that sees fringe Modern play. Starfield of Nyx has barely been reprinted hence the huge foil value, but sees play as part of Enchantress decks. Careful Study actually sees play in Legacy and Pauper (think Reanimator). Merchant Scroll is a cheap but narrow tutor that is Vingate playable (often targeting Breach and Paradoxical Outcome) that has rarely been reprinted. And Paradise Mantle as an egg has inherent value, most often in cEDH. So all playable cards that have had rare reprints. Admittedly not all played together in any one deck. And that's not even going for the obvious picks for reprints coughRhysticStudycoughSkullClampHeadphonescough.

Robin Eisenberg - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • Orvar, the All-Form - $3.30 nonfoil / $3.39 foil

  • Sage of Hours - $12.14 nonfoil / $49.40 foil - first reprint since JOU

  • See Double - $0.91 nonfoil / $1.08 foil - first reprint since MOM

  • Slip Through Space - $0.38 nonfoil / $5.09 foil - first foil reprint since OGW

  • Sway of the Stars - $5.89 nonfoil / $42.81 foil - first reprint

  • Total - $22.62 nonfoil / $101.77 foil

Per Card Premium - $1.47 nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: All except Orvar

LA Based artist Robin Eisenberg joins the Magic artist canon with an Orvar starter deck. The dream here is to target Sage of Hours with either See Double or Slip Through Space with Orvar in play to make a bunch of clones. Not sure where Sway the Stars comes in, though I imagine with the unbanning last year they were looking for a place to reprint this recently legal card again. Three of these cards are first time reprints (though See Double barely counts), and Orvar is decently popular (209th on EDH rec which is over 10k decks).

Bundle Value

We don't have information on the bundles so check back later in the future


TLDR (ratings are my own subjective score combining taste + price + "bundleability" aka how well the cards play together in a single deck. pcp = per card premium)

Hobbit Drops (8/17)

  • Token/5 nonfoil | Token/5 foil - Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Second Breakfast and Beyond - $4.06 pcp nonfoil / $5.71 pcp foil - As with Basic Land drops, YMMV and this drop entirely relies upon how much you value the art.
  • 1/5 nonfoil | 1/5 foil - Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Over the Edge of the Wild - $4.06 pcp nonfoil / $2.56 pcp foil - Fun art, but low value reprints and no cohesive theme
  • 2/5 nonfoil | 2/5 foil - Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Smaug's Spoils - $3.66 pcp nonfoil / $3.94 pcp foil - Obligatory EDH artifacts in theme drop for your theme deck that is below MSRP.
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 2.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x The Hobbit: Desolation - $2.20 pcp nonfoil / $3.49 pcp foil - The best value of the Hobbit decks with rad art and that serves as a mono black starter kit, though only worth it if you plan on running Diabolic Intent.
  • 0.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x The Hobbit: He Who Walks Unseen - $8.08ish foil pcp (depending on Arcane Heist value) - extremely overpriced drop that relies on the unique foiling gimmick, since the reprints here are nowhere worth the MSRP. The only reason this doesn't completely fail as there is technically a use case for a diehard monoblue Bilbo EDH player to run all of these in their deck but unless that is exactly you, I cannot recommend this drop.

Frankly I'm going to be skipping the Hobbit drop next Monday. If by some miracle the Desolation Drop makes it to the 31st I might add it to my cart for free shipping.

Perfectly Normal Superdrop (8/31)

  • 5/5 nonfoil | 5/5 foil - Gene Luen Yang - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - Great art. Great theming. Great reprints. Exactly what SLD should be about.
  • 1.5/5 nonfoil | 1.5/5 foil - Marvel: Pets - $3.28 pcp nonfoil / $0.94 pcp foil - A mishmash of cards with no standout chase card or cohesion. Only for the Marvel completionists.
  • 2/5 nonfoil | 2/5 foil - Marvel: Hulk - $4.48 pcp nonfoil / $4.69 pcp foil - Technically worse value than the Marvel Pets drop but at least it has a coherent theme and can be played together in a single Hulk deck.
  • 4/5 nonfoil | 4/5 foil - Marvel: True Believers in Love - $2.20 pcp nonfoil / $3.49 pcp foil - Great value, though it is mostly concentrated in a single card. Fun art that will definitely be in demand.
  • 4/5 nonfoil | 4.5/5 foil - **Marvel: Featuring Dan Hipp ** - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - Printing a $40 Standard staple in a SLD with awesome art? No brainer value wise - the only dock against it is again the fact that they're not all playable together.
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 3/5 foil - Ian Miller - $0.47 pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - You're getting this mostly for the Animar. Also don't be fooled by the nonfoil value, that's mostly due to an inflated Tsabo Tavoc
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 4/5 foil - Lofi Girl - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - Despite the surprising IP, some sneakily solid value in here especially at foil, as well as decently playability across a number of formats.
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 4/5 foil - Robin Eisenberg - $1.47 pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - An Orvar starter kit with some choice reprints (though check with your playgroup if they're okay with Sway the Stars coming down).

Here I'm aiming for Gene Luen Yang, Hulk, True Believers in Love, Dan Hipp, and Lofi Girl.

u/Ninjaboi333 — 2 months ago

Weird request - pork shoulder recipe after you've cooked it once unseasoned

Context: we have a senior dog (16+yo) who is very spoiled and has a lot of health issues, leading to a custom formulated diet. Since he gets tired of eating the same food over and over we entice him to eat with pork broth drizzled over his food, which is easily made by cooking a pork shoulder in water under pressure for 2 hours much like you would polled pork or Carnitas

The crucial thing though is that it needs to be cooked unseasoned since too much salt and pretty much any seasoning on the pork itself is a no go to be dog safe. So basically I'm left with a few pounds of unseasoned pressure cooked pork shoulder.

Obvious I can (and have) pulled it apart, drenched in sauce, recripsed on the stove with seasoning to emulate a typical pulled pork / carintas dish. Just wondering if folks had any ideas on how else I could utilize the leftover meat - I assume recooking it in the instant pot again wouldn't really work since most of the flavor was extracted the first go around. I've also trimmed most of the fat off the shoulder since too much fat in the broth is a no go for the dog.

And before anyone says just give it to the dog - the whole point is that he already has his own (very expensive) food to eat (plus his teeth aren't what they used to be to tear into pork - though when he had an upset stomach we did use IP pork as his bland meal).

Thanks in advance for indulging in my weird request!

reddit.com
u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago

Breaking Down Historical Trends for Animated Feature Film - An Original Analysis and Early Predictions

Most analysis I've done on historical trends has been on Best Picture / ATL related stuff but secretly my favorite category every year is Animated Feature. With this year being one of the strongest potential lineups in a long time (and my ride or die hope being Forgotten Island taking the category) I figured I'd look back at some historical trends for this category.

Numbers here go back to 2011 / 84th Oscars - prior to that sometimes we'd only have 3 nominees, but we've had a consistent 5 nominees per year since. I also break out 2018 onward as its own period when Netflix started campaigning harder.

Studio Distribution

Year Pixar Disney GKIDS Netflix DreamWorks Laika Apple + Indies Sony Other Hollywood Studios
2011 0 0 2 0 2 0 0 0 1 (Paramount)
2012 1 2 (1 WDAS, 1 Tim Burton) 0 0 0 1 (Focus) 0 1 (1 Aardman) 0
2013 0 2 (1 WDAS, 1 Ghibli) 1 0 1 0 0 0 1 (Illumination)
2014 0 1 2 (1 Cartoon Saloon, 1 Ghibli) 0 1 1 (Focus) 0 0 0
2015 1 0 2 (1 Ghibli) 0 0 0 0 0 2 (Paramount, Lionsgate/Aardman)
2016 0 2 2 (1 Ghibli) 0 0 1 (Focus) 0 0 0
2017 1 0 1 (1 Cartoon Saloon) 0 1 0 1 (Good Deed) 0 1 (Blue Sky)
2018 1 2 (1 Animation, 1 Searchlight) 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
2019 1 0 0 2 1 1 (UAR) 0 0 0
2020 2 0 0 2 (1 Aardman) 0 0 1 (Apple/Cartoon Saloon) 0 0
2021 1 2 0 1 (Shared w Sony) 0 0 1 (Neon) 0 (See Netflix) 0
2022 1 0 0 2 1 0 1 (A24) 0 0
2023 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 (Neon) 1 (1 Animation) 0
2024 1 0 0 1 (1 Aardman) 1 0 2 (1 Janus, 1 IFC) 0 0
2025 1 1 1 1 (made by Sony) 0 0 1 Neon 0 0
Total 12 12 13 10 8 4 8 3 5
Post 2018 Total 9 5 3 10 3 1 7 2 0
Expected Post 2018 out of 5 1.125 0.625 0.375 1.25 0.375 0.125 0.875 0.25 0

Conclusions

  • Pixar is still king - having 12 noms in 15 years and 9 in the last 8. The only years they've missed were 2011 (Cars 2), 2013 (Monsters U), 2014 (No film), and 2016 (Finding Dory)
  • Disney has become a shadow of its former self - while the total number is still impressive, they've only had 4 noms in the last 8 years / 8 films, so a 50% hit rate (Films from years that missed: 2019 - Frozen 2, 2020 - No Film, 2022 - Strange World, 2023 - Wish, 2024 - Moana 2).
  • GKIDS used to be the forefront of indie / international animated films, not only being the go to distributors for Ghibli and Cartoon Saloon films, but also distributing films like Chico and Rita, Ernest & Celestine and getting Mamoru Hosoda his first nomination. With more competition from other distributors and Ghibli not having as much consistent output, they've pivoted to other non-animated releases. Their animated nominations post 2018 has been 2/3 Japanese films, with last year giving them one for Little Amelie.
  • If Disney and GKIDS fell off, it's because Netflix has come in to take their lunch, with both family films (KPop Demon Hunters, Nimona, Mitchells and Machines) as well as the international indie fare (Klaus, I Lost My Body, Pinocchio). They've had 10 nominations in the 8 years they've been active, for an average of 1.25 films per year. They do seem to have narrowed down to one film per year the last three years, so they probably are focusing their efforts into one film, which has skewed more general family friendly (Wallace and Gromit, KPop Demon Hunters, Nimona)
  • Dreamworks is still hanging in there, with a respectable 8 noms over 15 years (about 0.5 per year), and 3 in the last 8 (about 0.375 per year). Looking at the years they missed, their offerings were - 2020 (Trolls World Tour, Croods A New Age), 2021 (Spirit Untamed, Boss Baby 2), 2023 (Ruby Gillman, Trolls Bad Together), 2025 (Dog Man, The Bad Guys 2, Gabbys Dollhouse). They have been on a one year on, one year off trend the last few and last year was an off year.
  • Laika does look like they haven't really had much luck with only one nom since 2019. But the reason for that is that the last film they put out was in 2019. They literally have a perfect 5/5 nomination record for their films in this category. The only hiccup is that they have switched distributors from Focus Features and UAR to Fathom Entertainment this year. Also for what it's worth, Cartoon Saloon also had a perfect 4/4 nomination record, even changing once to Apple before missing when they changed to Netflix with My Father's Dragon.
  • Miscellaneous Indie films - from 2018 onward, you can see that they've stepped into what GKIDS used to dominate, with A24, Neon, Janus, and IFC all getting a nom (and even Apple with Wolfwalkers getting in there). 7 noms in 8 years is 0.875 noms per year.
  • Sony - The only nominations they've had solo (so not counting Sony Animated films that were sold to Netflix like Mitchells or KPop Demon Hunters) since 2018 were the two Spiderverse films. So expect one for 2027 when Part 3 supposedly comes out, but not this year.
  • Other Hollywood studios - Yeah kind of embarrassing that other studios haven't had any noms since 2018. Not a factor here.
  • Aardman - not a standalone studio, but they have done pretty well - Of their last 7 films, 4 got nominated (with Arthur Christmas in 2012, Early Man in 2018, and Chicken Run 2 in 2023 missing), and all the Wallace and Gromit / Shaun the Sheep films have made it in.

Stop Motion

  • 2011 - 0
  • 2012 - 3 (Frankenweenie / ParaNorman / The Pirates!)
  • 2013 - 0
  • 2014 - 1 (Boxtrolls)
  • 2015 - 2 (Anomalisa / Shaun the Sheep)
  • 2016 - 2 (Kubo and the Two Strings / My Life as a Zucchini)
  • 2017 - 0
  • 2018 - 1 (Isle of Dogs)
  • 2019 - 1 (Missing Link)
  • 2020 - 1 (Shaun the SHeep Farmageddon)
  • 2021 - 0
  • 2022 - 2 (Pinocchio, Marcel the Shell)
  • 2023 - 0
  • 2024 - 2 (Memoir of a Snail, Wallace and Gromit)
  • 2025 - 0

In total there are 15 stop motion animated films over 15 years, so on average 1 per year. Lately it seems to have been one year 0 stop motion, one year 2 stop motion. Breaking it up by studios you get

  • Laika - 4
  • Aardman - 4
  • Indie - 3
  • Netflix / GDT - 1
  • Tim Burton - 1
  • Wes Anderson - 1
  • A24 - 1

International Productions

  • 2011 - 2 - 1 France (A Cat in Paris) / 1 Spain (Chico and Rita)
  • 2012 - 1 - 1 UK (The Pirates!)
  • 2013 - 2 - 1 France (Ernest and Celestine) / 1 Japan (The Wind Rises)
  • 2014 - 2 - 1 Ireland (Song of the Sea) / 1 Japan (Tale of Princess Kaguya)
  • 2015 - 3 - 1 Brazil (Boy and the World) / 1 UK (Shaun the Sheep) / 1 Japan (When Marnie Was There)
  • 2016 - 2 - 1 Swiss (My Life as a courgette) / 1 Japan/France (Red Turtle)
  • 2017 - 2 - 1 Ireland (The Breadwinner) / 1 Poland (Loving Vincent)
  • 2018 - 1 - 1 Japan (Mirai)
  • 2019 - 2 - 1 France (I Lost My Body) / 1 Spain (Klaus)
  • 2020 - 3 - 1 China (Over the Moon) / 1 UK (Shaun the Sheep Farmageddeon) / 1 Ireland (Wolfwalkers)
  • 2021 - 1 - 1 Denmark (Flee)
  • 2022 - 1 - 1 Mexico (Pinocchio)
  • 2023 - 2 - 1 Japan (Boy and the Heron) / 1 France/Spain (Robot Dreams)
  • 2024 - 3 - 1 Latvia (Flow) / 1 Australian (Memoir of a Snail) / 1 UK (Wallace and Gromit)
  • 2025 - 2 - 2 France (Arco / Little Amelie)

Overall, there are 28 international productions over 15 years, so about 1.87 per year. If you tally it up by country you get

  • France - 5 + 2 shared
  • Japan - 5 + 1 shared
  • UK - 4
  • Ireland - 3
  • Spain - 2 + 1 shared
  • 1 each to Brazil, Swiss, Poland, China, Denmark, Mexico, Latvia, Australia

Annecy Winners (Contender means they competed but did not win)

  • 2011 - 0 Winner / 2 Contenders (Chico & Rita, A Cat in Paris)
  • 2012 - 0 Winner / 1 Contender (Paranorman)
  • 2013 - 0 winner / 0 Contender
  • 2014 - 0 winner / 0 Contender
  • 2015 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2016 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2017 - 0 winner / 1 contender
  • 2018 - 0 winner / 2 contender
  • 2019 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2020 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2021 - 1 winner / 0 contender
  • 2022 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2023 - 0 winner / 0 contender
  • 2024 - 1 winner / 1 contender
  • 2025 - 1 winner / 1 contender

Overall, 6/15 winners have been nominated. Notably, in the last 8 years, 5 winners have been nominated. Contenderwise, 8 total have been nominated over the 15 years, though only 4 in the last 4 years. Notably, all films nominated were nominated for years coming out the year they were at Annecy (so anything at 2025 Annecy wouldn't be considered for this year)


Overall Conclusions and how it impacts this year's race

  • Studio wise, you probably want at least 1 Pixar film, 1 Netflix film, and 1 Indie Studio (think Neon or A24 or Janus). Dreamworks has been every other year lately, GKIDS has been in a slump lately.
  • There have historically been 1-2 international films per year, mostly France and Japan (and including Aardman / Cartoon Saloon).
  • You want about 1 Stop Motion animated film per year, though recent years suggest a 0-2-0-2-0 pattern. Laika is also perfect thus far in their track record.
  • The winner of Annecy has been nominated in 5 of the last 8 years , so slightly better than 50%. The last two years, both the winner and one contender has been nominated.

Looking at plausible contenders this year (In order of how I have the studios lines up above)

  • Toy Story 5 - Pixar
  • Hoppers - Pixar
  • Hexed - WDAS
  • Decorado - GKIDS (Portugal / Spain)
  • The Last Blossom - GKIDS (Japan)
  • Cocoon - GKIDS (Japan)
  • Shaun the Sheep - GKIDS (Aardman / Stop Motion / UK)
  • Cosmic Princess Kaguya - Netflix (Japan)
  • Swapped - Netflix
  • Steps - Netflix
  • In Waves - Netflix (Annecy contender / France)
  • I Am Frankelda - Netflix (Mexico / Stop Motion)
  • Ray Gunn - Netflix
  • Forgotten Island - Dreamworks
  • Minions & Monsters - Illumination
  • Wildwood - Laika / Fathom Events (Stop Motion)
  • Iron Boy - Sony Pictures Classic (Annecy contender / France)
  • Avatar the Legend of Aang Movie - Paramount
  • Julian - Cartoon Saloon (Ireland, no distributor)
  • The Violinist - TBD (Annecy winner / Singapore / no distributor)
  • Viva Carmen - TBD (Annecy contender / France / no distributor)
  • Tangles - TBD (Annecy contender / Canada / no distributor)

Going by the above guidelines

  • Toy Story 5 is the likely Pixar nominee this year given that every eligible film in the franchise has been nominated at some point (and only the 2nd didn't win anything). It is tied with Hoppers on Metacritic (73 each), though notably is slightly lower than Hoppers on RT (92 vs 94). I don't have faith in Hexed to reverse the trend of recent original WDAS films underperforming,
  • For Netflix, they have an embarrassment of riches. While a lot of people point to Brad Bird's Ray Gunn as an obvious pick, we'll see if it can overcome the stench of Skydance Animation. I personally am more excited for In Waves to potentially fill the international / Annecy contender slot. I Am Frankelda could also have done well if not for other strong stop motion films this year.
  • While there is no announced animated film from Neon or A24, there are a number of Annecy films without a contender thus far - winner The Violinist, "Viva Carmen*, or Tangles. Cartoon Saloon's Julian is also still up for grabs.
  • Also worth pointing out Iron Boy as one of the other competition Annecy films to have gotten distribution from Sony Pictures Classic. I am somewhat skeptical given Sony's standalone track record as of late outside of the Spiderverse films.
  • One of the most interesting parts of the race is the return of Laika with Wildwood. While they do have the perfect record thus far, they eerily are following the similar trend to Cartoon Saloon - doing well with their main distributor (GKIDS / Focus) and even getting a nom with a new distributor (Apple / United Artists Releasing), before pivoting to a 3rd distributor (Fathom / Netflix), which in Cartoon Saloon's case led them to miss for the first time in studio history. They also are competing for attention from the every present Aardman with the latest Shaun the Sheep movie, who also has a perfect record, though they are paired with the currently struggling GKIDS. Now we have seen years of 2 stop motion films making it in, so it's not impossible to happen.
  • Looking at other studios, we are on the even year of the Dreamworks on / off cycle which bodes well Forgotten Island. While I think perhaps the Illumination brand is not as popular among the Academy (Boss Baby 2 really?), the fact that Minions & Monsters is an ode to early years of Hollywood might be a sneaky asset.
  • Avatar the Last Airbender - Love the franchise, but I think the way Paramount has treated the franchise shows they likely won't launch a serious campaign for it.

With that my early prediction is something like

  1. Pixar film - Toy Story 5 (alternate: Hoppers)
  2. Netflix film - In Waves (over Ray Gunn) - also meets 1/2 International films + 1/2 Annecy films
  3. Stop Motion Film - Wildwood (over Shaun the Sheep) - we have two perfect records of Laika v Shaun the Sheep movies, with both having sus distributors. I'm choosing to hopedict Wildwood here. Shaun the Sheep would count as the 2nd international film for what that's worth
  4. Indie Film - The Violinist (likely picked up by an indie distributor, tbd whom) - This would be the third year in a row of the Annecy winner + contender being in, and there being 5/8 winners since 2018 getting nominated bodes well. Would also be the 2nd International film if Shaun the Sheep misses.
  5. Forgotten Island - I think the buzz out of Cinemacon + the creative team behind Puss in Boots + even year for Dreamworks are all good signs. Am I hopedicting a bit here as a Filipino American? Perhaps, but these are my predictions so I can do what I want.

If Forgotten Island were to miss, I think it would most likely be to either Shaun the Sheep getting in as a second stop motion film (continuing the 0-2-0-2-0-2 pattern) or Ray Gunn since Brad Bird's name likely has weight amongst animators, (though we'll see if Skydance dampens enthusiasm for it)

I could see The Violinist missing, though it would likely be for another Annecy film - currently Iron Boy in the lead for actually having a distributor. Viva Carmen's director's last film Chicken for Linda! not getting a nom isn't a good sign there. Tangles being a film with a celebrity producer (Julia Louis Deryfus) that debuted at Cannes could have it be the Arco of this year.

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u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago
▲ 358 r/magicTCG

[SLD] Their Magic is Limitless + Superdrop of the Moonlight Jellies (Stardew Valley) Financial Breakdown

NEW SECRET LAIR ALERT

Over the weekend at MagicCon Amsterdam, WotC had a Secret Lair Reveal-a-thon with a ton revealed. To quickly summarize the upcoming schedule:

  • Currently Live through August 3rd - Their Magic is Limitless (Philanthropy drop)
  • July 27th - Superdrop of the Moonlight Jellies (Stardew Valley)
  • August 10th - Hatsune Miku Precon Deck
  • August 17th - Marvelous Mathoms Superdrop (The Hobbit (not fully revealed))
  • August 26th - A Perfectly Normal Superdrop (4 Marvel Drops + Journey to the West UB + Lofi Girl UB + 2 artist drops)
  • September 14th - The Most Powerful Superdrop in the Universe (Masters of the Universe (no cards shown))

Since we do not have the full details of the Marvelous Mathoms drop yet, I will hold off on fully reviewing the Perfectly Normal Superdrop that comes out afterwards even if I think we know most of the details there (though I may do a quick and dirty summary). I also don't generally review the precon decks so won't be commenting on Miku (which you all know is going to sell out anyway).

For this post I will focus on the currently live Philantropy drop as well as Stardew Valley superdrop coming next week. Once we have the details of the Marvelous Mathoms superdrop, I will bundle all the August releases into the next post. And then the Masters of the Universe drop and anything else revealed after that.


Just a reminder since people continually misconstrue the purpose this analysis - this is not meant to be an assessment of whether the cards in these drops will have the same value after they release (they usually won't, especially in cases where the value listed below is of a rarely reprinted foil). We also know that these specific SLD versions of cards will usually retain (in aggregate) at least the combined value of what you pay for them even if the original version cheaper.

Rather, this is meant for the scenario of "if you were looking for the cards in these drops already, are you better off grabbing these or grabbing the cheapest version available on the market?" I also provide a metric of "per card premium" if the answer is no, so that you know how much more you are paying for the bling / art factor. Numbers come from Scryfall at time of writing, analysis does not factor in discount for bulk purchases on the website or shipping or any bundles.

In addition, I will note any first time reprints and foil versions, as well as any cards that are new to Secret Lair as part of an effort to decide if I want to get the drops for my SLD only cube.

Stardew Valley WotC post here

Global Fund for Women WotC post here


Secret Lair x Global Fund for Women: Their Magic Is Limitless - $39.99 nonfoil / $49.99 foil

Note that 50% of the sales price (less third-party transaction fees) will be donated to Global Fund for Women via Our Change Foundation 501(c)(3), a public charity and donor-advised fund.

  • Dark Ritual - $3.37 nonfoil / $8.28 foil
  • Cultivate - $0.38 nonfoil / $0.63 foil
  • Finale of Devastation - $44.54 nonfoil / $59.71 foil
  • Lathril, Blade of the Elves - $1.21 nonfoil / $1.79 foil
  • Coat of Arms - $15.72 nonfoil / $23.42 foil
  • Sol Ring - $1.08 nonfoil / $1.32 foil
  • Path of Ancestry - $0.22 nonfoil / $0.33 foil
  • Bonus Card - >!"Llanowar Elves"!< - $0.27 nonfoil / $2.16 foil
  • Bonus Cards - >!"2x Elf Warrior Tokens"!< - Tokens
  • Total - $66.79 nonfoil / $97.64 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Finale of Devastation / Lathril

Another charity drop so that's already like a good reason to buy these. But the value in this drop is pretty decent; the headliner card is of course Finale of Devastation which itself pays for the drop, even at the elevated price point. Coat of Arms is also a respectable card value wise, between $15 and $25 depending on version. One underrated part of this drop also is that this functions pretty well as a starter kit for an elf typal deck led by Lathril (the top Elf commander by EDHREC). All of these cards are pretty well played in EDH (Dark Ritual - 25% / Cultivate - 42% / Finale - 7.5% / Coat of Arms - 1.5% / Path - 22% / >!"Llanowar Elves"!< - 20%)

Fortunately this drop is still available and will be available through August 3rd since as a philanthropy drop it is print to demand. Unfortunately if you did not get the initial print yesterday, you now are estimated to receive the drop in April 2027. Whether or not you are okay with that delay is up to you (I distinctly remember back when PTD was available for other drops, people would angrily post nearly every day about how their drops still hadn't shipped and the next one was already on sale).


Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: Welcome to Stardew Valley - $39.99 nonfoil / $49.99 foil - note the higher price on this one

  • 1x Stardew Valley - New Mechanically unique card
  • 1x Wedding Ring as "Mermaid's Pendant" - $9.39 nonfoil / $9.27 foil
  • 1x Dawn's Truce as "Pierre's Truce" - $7.32 nonfoil / $7.17 foil - first reprint since BLB
  • 1x Swords to Plowshares - $1.20 nonfoil / $3.45
  • 1x Rites of Flourishing - $0.58 nonfoil / $1.64 foil
  • 1x Kynaios and Tiro of Meletis as "The Welcoming Committee" - $8.83 nonfoil / $9.51 foil (first non List reprint since C16)
  • 1x Sol Ring - $1.08 nonfoil / $1.32 foil
  • 1x Food Token - Token
  • Total - $27.82 nonfoil / $32.36 foil + Stardew Valley

Per Card Premium (assume Stardew Valley is ~$10 and exclude token) - $0.31 nonfoil / $1.09 foil

New to Secret Lair: all except Sol Ring and Swords to Plowshares

First off the mechanically unique Stardew Valley card. Presumably the reason they are charging $10 more for this drop. Looking at 22 other mechanically unique cards printed in SLD going back to Lara Croft (Nov 2023) that have not been reprinted (so excluding the Marvel ones that got a second printing)

  • Lucy (Fallout) - $4.70
  • The Ghoul (Fallout) - $10.50
  • Maximus (Fallout) - $1.08
  • Ellie (TLOU1) - $7.15
  • Joel (TLOU1) - $4.05
  • Abby (TLOU2) - $1.74
  • Ellie (TLOU2) - $3.35
  • Kratos (GOW1) - $53.74
  • Atreus (GOW2) - $4.06
  • Kratos (GOW2) - $9.70
  • Nathan Drake (Uncharted) - $4.70
  • Aloy - (Horizon Zero) - $5.49
  • Jin Sakai (Ghosts of Tsushima) - $117.81
  • Jaws (Jaws) - $171.11
  • Super State (Sonic) - $22.91
  • Knuckles (Sonic) - $16.89
  • Amy Rose (Sonic) - $1.49
  • Dr Eggman (Sonic) - $1.40
  • Miles (Sonic) - $0.99
  • Shadow (Sonic) - $4.00
  • Sonic (Sonic) - $2.68
  • Lara Croft - $48.85

Average - $22.65 / Median - $4.70

Only 7 cards out of 22 have hit $10 in value so about a 33% hit rate. So more likely than not a new card will be less than $10. However the new card does have the fact that it's a colorless land similar to the colorless Super State card worth ~$22.

New card aside, some interesting reprints worth just under $10 in Wedding Ring, Dawn's Truce, and finally K&T getting its first reprint (the last of the C16 commanders to get their first reprint). Notably all the cards not just in this drop but all Stardew Valley drops fit in K&T as a commander if you wanted to build a deck around them. Outside of Swords and Sol Ring, Dawn's Truce is probably the best EDH Card at 6.9% play rate.

Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: Life in Pelican Town - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Crop Rotation - $3.31 nonfoil / $4.16 foil
  • 1x Fountainport as "Community Center" - $2.45 nonfoil / $3.07 foil - first reprint since BLB
  • 1x Homeward Path as "Pelican Town" - $14.05 nonfoil / $14.83 foil
  • 1x Command Tower as "Tower of Rasmodius" - $0.25 nonfoil / $0.34 foil
  • 1x Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth as "Valley Farmstead" - $14.32 nonfoil / $20.91 foil
  • Total - $34.38 nonfoil / $43.31 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Fountainport, Yavimaya

A pretty fair drop value wise with 2 pretty decent cards price wise - Homeward Path (1.3% play rate) and Yavimaya (8.6% play rate plus Legacy play). Crop Rotation (9.8% play rate) funnily enough is a Game Changer for anyone wanting to not include those in their Stardew Valley deck. And even Fountainport (1.6% play rate) is getting its first reprint. But it is nice that these are supplements to any Gx manabase. Just don't forget to play enough basics!

Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: A Flicker in the Deep - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Atsushi, the Blazing Sky as "Royal Serpent" - $0.31 nonfoil / $1.61 foil - first foil reprint since NEO
  • 1x Mitotic Slime as "Big Slime" - $0.31 nonfoil / $4.33 foil - first non-promo foil reprint since M11
  • 1x Arcane Signet - $0.36 nonfoil / $0.53 foil
  • 1x Sword of Forge and Frontier as "Galaxy Sword" - $10.41 nonfoil / $11.59 foil - first reprint since ONE
  • 1x Treasure Vault - $0.97 nonfoil / $2.45 foil
  • 1x Ooze Token - Token
  • 1x Treasure Token - Token
  • Total - $12.36 nonfoil / $20.51 foil

Per Card Premium (excluding tokens) - $3.53 nonfoil / $3.89 foil

New to Secret Lair: Atsushi, Mitotic Slime

This one decidedly is less interesting / cohesive of a drop. While getting an Arcane Signet to fill out your K&T Stardew Valley deck is nice, I don't really see Atsushi or Mitotic Slime fitting in. At least Treasure vault is another nice land to play, and Galaxy Sword gives you a second land drop if you connect (plus it's a first time reprint which is nice).


Bundle Value + Bonus Card

  • Nonfoil Bundle - $99.97 - buying each drop separately would be $99.97 so you are getting no discount here. The cheapest versions of all 16 (non Stardew Valley/token) cards included at their cheapest version combines to $74.56 + Stardew Valley + 3 tokens. Assuming Stardew Valley is $10, that is a per card premium of $0.91 per card.
  • Foil Bundle - $129.97 - same price as if you bought separately, so no discount. Cheapest foil versions of all cards included = $96.18 + Stardew Valley + 3 tokens. Again assuming Stardew Valley is $10, that is a per card premium of $1.39 per card.
  • Foil + nonfoil Bundle - $219.99, so a $9.95 discount for buying both. That is $170.74 + $20 assumed for Stardew Valley + 6 tokens. That is a per card premium of $0.86

There is a bonus Puca's Mischief as "Lucky Purple Memento" if you buy certain bundles. Puca's Mischief has been reprinted only in Shadowmoor and on the List, but overall has a value of $2.64 in nonfoil and $3.18 in foil, so nothing too crazy.


Quick and Dirty Summary of Perfectly Normal Superdrop (subject to error, I just eyeballed the cheapest numbers I could find - will do the full breakdown next month)

  • Gene Luen Yang / Journey to the West - ~$48 in nonfoil value - all new prints to SLD aside from Ilharg / first reprints of Kibo, Dosan, Quest for Renewal
  • Marvel Pets - ~$10 in nonfoil value - Commune with Dinos, Searing Blaze new to SLD / no first time reprints
  • Marvel HULK - ~$7 in nonfoil value - Search for Tomorrow, Rishkar's Expertise, Gratuitous Violence new to SLD / no first time reprints
  • Marvel Couples - ~$40 in nonfoil value - True Loves Kiss, Run Away Together, Grave Pact new to SLD / no first time reprints
  • Marvel Dan Hipp - ~$51 in nonfoil value - all new prints to SLD aside from An Offer You Can't Refuse / first reprint of Bristly Bill
  • Ian Miller - ~$32 in nonfoil value - Tsabo Tavoc both first time in SLD and first (non List) reprint
  • Lofi Girl - ~$34 in nonfoil value - Merchant Scroll, Starfield of Nyx first time in SLD / no first time reprints
  • Robin Eisenberg - ~$21 in nonfoil value - all but Orvar first time reprints and first time in SLD.

TLDR (ratings are my own subjective score combining taste + price + "bundleability" aka how well the cards play together in a single deck. pcp = per card premium)

  • 5/5 nonfoil | 5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Global Fund for Women: Their Magic Is Limitless - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - For a good cause, with great value, and a great starter deck for a popular archetype. Literally the only downside at this point is that if you have yet to order you'll get your cards next year. GET THIS DROP YOU HAVE NO EXCUSE ITS PRINT TO DEMAND
  • 2.5/5 nonfoil | 2.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: Welcome to Stardew Valley - $0.31 pcp nonfoil / $1.09 pcp foil (assuming new mechanically unique card is at least $10)- Good for Stardew Valley lovers. Okay financial value / starter kit potential. Probably the best aesthetic of the 3 SV drops. Notable reprints and mechanically unique card
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 3/5 foil - Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: Life in Pelican Town - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - Great for Stardew Valley or Lands decks lovers. Better than MSRP financial value, and probably the most playability of the 3 SV drops.
  • 1.5/5 nonfoil | 1.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Stardew Valley: A Flicker in the Deep - $3.53 pcp nonfoil / $3.90 pcp foil - For the Stardew Valley completionists only - not much value here financially or playability.

Personally I did not yet get the philanthropy drop so I will likely get it next week alongside the first two (non-Mines) Stardew Valley drop (so I can include K&T and Yavimaya in my SLD cube), and so I can save on shipping (even if it means I get Stardew Valley next year).

See you next month once we get details on the Mathoms superdrop!

u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago
▲ 3 r/AMCTheatres+1 crossposts

Odyssey Ticket Issue - Can't Release Extra Ticket, No Customer Response

I currently have the issue where I cannot click into my Odyssey ticket for this coming Saturday at Lincoln Square IMAX from either the app or the website. Based on what I've read this seems to be a larger issue with the first tranche of tickets released where the barcode in my email should still work - I plan on arriving an hour early just in case to avoid any issues day of.

The more pressing issue is that when I initially booked tickets I had booked two, but my friend can no longer make it with me. Knowing that there is a lot of demand for these tickets I'd like to do the right thing and release it for someone to get, but since I can't click into my ticket on either app or web I can't do that (plus I'd be nervous about releasing both tickets instead of just one).

I've tried reaching out to customer service through the website but have not heard back in a week. I figure if I go early to Lincoln Square I can get someone to help me there but that would be really close to the showtime, though again still nervous it'll end up voiding the whole order.

Any ideas on if I should just eat the cost of the extra ticket or otherwise?

Edit: not an invite to DM me to pay for the second ticket, I personally would find the social interaction of meeting up with a stranger to then sit together for the movie too awkward for my tastes.

Edit 2: Was able to go to history and request refund for just one ticket!

reddit.com
u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago

Analyzing the Top 30 TT Teams to Determine the "Meta" picks - Unity 2.0 + Summer Golshi Update

Previous update here from ~3.5 months ago

With Unity 2.0 updated and Summer Golshi released, TT retention scores are increasing once again. Even knowing that I'll need to redo my TT squads once again once Grand Live is released, I'm done with my CM16 aces so I figured I might as well update my TT comps. Obviously if you really want to feature your oshi you should but for those of us less attached or wondering what to do for the other 14 slots, here are the most common picks from the top 30 teams of Class 6. I also was curious as to whether Summer Golshi was an absolute necessity so did some analysis there.

Also since people asked last time, NA means that no uma was run in that position (ie 28 NA Sprint End mean out of the 30 Sprint teams I looked at, 28 did not have an end close)


Sprint

  • Front - Suzuka - 15 / VBourbon - 10 / NA - 3 / Bakushin, Kita - 1 each
  • Pace - Wedding Curren - 9+4 / BallFuji - 8 / Oguri - 3+1 / Nishino - 2+1 / Bakushin - 1+1 / Air Groove - 0+2 / CampTaiki, NY Opera, Taiki, Pasa - 0+1 each /
  • Pace is a bit weird because 7 folks ran multiple paces, so the initial number is the number of solo uma in the Pace spot, and the second number is the number of times it's run as a dupli-pace. So Wedding Curren showed up 13 times total, 9 times solo, 4 times as one of two paces.
  • Late - Air Groove - 17 / NA - 6 / Nishino - 4 / CheerHalo, Dober, Halo - 1 each
  • End - NA - 28 / Dober, HishiAma - 1 each

There were 22 different Sprint comps, though only 2 showed up more than twice

  • 4 - Suzuka Front / Ballroom Fuji Pace / Air Groove Late
  • 3 - Valentine Bourbon Front / Weddign Curren Pace / Air Groove Late

The big shift since last time is that Wedding Curren was released. I'm not sure if she's now popular because of her release, or if because Unity 2.0 has made her more viable.

Mile

  • Front - SMaru - 8 / BallSeiun - 7 / Seiun - 5 / Maru, NA - 3 each / Suzuka - 2 / Daiwa, Fujin, VBourbon - 1 each
  • Pace - Taiki - 7 / Oguri - 5+1 / Fuji - 3+2 / CampTaiki - 2 / Finemo - 1+1 / BallFuji, Daiwa, NYOpera, Pasa, Tachyon - 1 each / WGroove - 0+1
  • Late - Grass, NA - 5 each / Tamamo - 4 / Dober, FestCity - 3 each / Oguri, Vodka, WMayano - 2 each / CommanderSpe, Digitan, GoldCity, Nature - 1 each
  • End - 25 NA / 2 Taishin / Bright, McQueen - 1 each / Daiwa, Hishi - 0+1 each

There were 29 different Mile comps, with only 1 showing up twice.

  • Ballroom Seiun Front / Oguri Pace / Festival Gold City Late

Vodka has disappeared off the rankings for Late significantly, though I can't say why for sure.

Medium

  • Front - VBourbon - 10+1 / Suzuka - 7 / Seiun, NA - 3 each / Bourbon, Fujin, King Halo, Kita, NYOpera, Smaru - 1 each / Maru - 0+1
  • Pace - Pasa - 10+2 / Tachyon - 9 / Spe - 3 / NA - 2 / WMayano - 0+2 / Hayahide, Oguri, Rice - 1 each / FestCity, Dober - 0+1 each
  • Late - Brian - 8 / Eishin, WMayano, NA - 6 each / CheerNature, FestCity, Pasa, SumSpe - 1 each
  • End - NA - 22 / WMayano, SGolshi - 2, Ayabe, Jordan, Sweep, Tamamo - 1 each

There were 28 different Medium comps, with only 1 showing up 3 times

  • VBourbon Front / Pasa Pace / Brian Late

Tachyon is no longer as popular a Pace as last time (previously she had 23 to her name!) which Pasa seems to have eaten up? And Brian held steady while Wedding Mayano fell off (previously at 17)

Long

  • Front - Kita, NA - 10 each / NYOpera - 9 / Seiun - 1
  • Pace - Creek - 17+2 / NYOpera - 4+2 / NA - 3 / Ryan, Spe, Xogurin - 1 each / Hayahide, HRice - 0+1 each
  • Late - NA - 13 / SGolshi - 4 / FantasyGrass - 3 / Manhattan Cafe - 2 / CommanderSpe, Eishin, FantasyPasa, GoldCity, Mayano, NYOpera, SumSpe - 1 each / Halo, Nature - 0+1 each
  • End - NA - 10 / SGolshi - 9+1 / Golshi - 7+1 / Bright - 2 / Vodka, Grass - 0+1 each

There were 23 different Sprint comps, though only 2 showed up more than twice

  • 4 - NYOpera Front / Creek Pace / Summer Golshi End
  • 3 - NYOpera Front / Creek Pace / Summer Golshi Late

Creek came back to take her crown from NYOpera - likely because Unity now makes her less of a pain to train. Summer Golshi is of course the new hotness, splitting volume for End with herself 9though we also see more Late Surgers overall)

Dirt

  • Front - Falcon - 13 / SMaru - 6 / NA - 5 / Maru - 4 / Suzuka, Taiki - 1 each
  • Pace - Taiki - 15 / Oguri - 5+1 / Pasa - 4 / CampTaiki - 3 / NA - 1 / Sewep, Nishino, Digitan - 0+1 each
  • Late - Digitan - 14 / NYHaru 6 / NA - 5 / Oguri - 3 / FestCity, GoldCity - 1 each
  • End - NA - 21 / Digitan - 5 / Inari - 2 / NYHaru - 1 / Rudolf - 1

There were 22 different Dirt comps, though only 2 showed up more than twice

  • 6 - Falcon Front / Faiki Pace / Digitan Late
  • 3 - Falcon Front / Taiki Pace / NYHaru Late

Taiki takes back the lead for best Pacer for Dirt, likely due to Pasa being run more in Medium and thus not eligilble here. Otherwise Digitan and Falcon hold their spots as usual.

If I were to follow the most popular uma above for each position / distance combination then it would look something like

  • Sprint - Suzuka Front / Wedding Curren Pace / Air Groove Late
  • Mile - SMaru Front / Oguri Pace / Grass Wonder Late
  • Medium - VBourbon Front / Pasa Pace / Brian Late
  • Long - Kita Front / Super Creek Pace / Summer Golshi End
  • Dirt - Falcon Front / Taiki Pace / Digitan Late

Notably above Taiki is technically the most popular Pace for both Mile and Dirt, but since she is in 15 of Dirt Paces vs only 7 in Mile, then I slot in Oguri as the next most popular Pace in that slot.

Personally I am missing Wedding Curren, so I'd likely default to Nishino in that slot since I also don't have Ballroom Fuji and have Oguri in Mile. I also may swap out Brian for WMayano or Eishin since I like those two more than Brian personally.


How Necessary is SummerGolshi for TT?

When I was tabulating the different team comps, I also took the extra step of digging into the skills to see if SGolshi's unique (564) was inherited or not (obviously I counted SGolshi as having it herself). And while it certainly is widespread, it's not as though every top ranked TT player has them on all their Umas.

  • On an average 15 uma team, only 7.63 had 564. The median number was 9, but the mode was actually 0.
  • Looking at individual distances, it pretty consistenlyt hung near the 1.5 / 3 uma rate - Long was lowest at 1.47 while Dirt was highest at 1.60. See the chart below for the average, median, and mode of each distance (again remember it's out of 3)
Sprint Mile Med Long Dirt
Avg 1.53 1.52 1.57 1.47
Median 2 2 1.5 1
Mode 2 0 3 3

However when you divide the top 30 into 1-15 and 16-30, there is actually a noticeable difference in how often 564 shows up.

  • On average the top 15 had 8.67 Uma with 564, while the bottom 15 had only 6.60 Uma - a whole 2 uma difference.
  • The median went from 11 in top 15 to only 9 in the bottom 15, while the mode went from 11 to 0.
  • Looking at specific distances, Long and Dirt had about half an uma more with 564, while on Mile it was basically flat (1.53 vs 1.50)

So overall, while yes Summer Golshi does help you increase your score the more you have her on your uma, it is still possible to have a competitive TT team without her

  • More players (5) have 0 instances of 564 than players with 15 instances of it (3)
  • Almost as many players (11) have 0-4 instances of 564 as players with 11-15 instances of it (12)

Is it Unity 2.0 or bust?

Again, considering in about half a month we'll be at Grand Live, is it worth going to Unity 2.0 to rebuild your TT? For this I went through and also noted if the uma had been in Trackblazers. Sidebar - there were two madlads who were running Uma from URA:The Beginning, though these were often alongside one from Unity 2.0. One particular mad land was running an E ranked end closer Vodka in Long. But for the purposes of this analysis I'm looking at wheter TB is dead or not.

  • Overall the average number of uma for a given 15 uma squad run in TB was 4.27. The median was 2, and the mode was 1.
  • As with the 564 analysis, the numbers diverge when you look at hte top and bottom halves of the data set. The top 15 had an average of only 2.93 while the bottom 15 had 5.60. The median went from 2 to 3 and the mode went from 0 to 1.

One likely explanation - when you look at the 5 folks who had no instances of 564, all of them had at least 12 (and often 15) of their Uma in TB. The next highest number was 8 TB uma. So likely they were able to hold onto their ranking without doing any retraining with SummerGolshi at all, which is impressive. On the flip side, those who have 15 instances of 564 did so entirely in Unity 2.0.

Some other unscientific / nonvalidated data points I observed anecdotaly / would like to measure if it didn't take so long

  • A lot of Umas were witmaxxed - 5-6 wit cards with maybe 1 speed card. I didn't go in depth into the exact numbers, but I'd be curious to see how well that holds, especially for longer distance teams (I can imagine a Riko or Stam card sneaking into long). Also would be curious to see how often Throne shows up.
  • One easy tell if an uma was in TB or not? If they had Firm Course Menace - I imagine that because Narita Topro isn't as good in Unity and FCM is a pretty valuable gold skill.
  • I'd like to measure how many races these Uma are doing, especially in Unity 2.0.
  • Also curious how many gold skills on average uma have, especially for those with 564 vs those without

Anyway I anticipate that once we get settled into Grand Live I'll be doing this again. I'll likely take a week or so to get used to the new scenario before rebuilding TT teams there so my plan is to redo my uma now to hopefully hold on to class 6 until then.

Happy training!

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u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago

Trying to parse which Supports are Best In Class for Pull Plan (+ which umas are best aces / parents)

So my understanding is that as the game goes on, it's better to specialize in a style since there will be more style specific cards and it will get expensive to pull for all cards. I went through the uma.guide gacha guide plus serirus' video from nearly a year ago and tried to parse out what I undrestood to be best in class cards for each style, and how those change over time. Does this track or am I missing anything here?

The number indicates scenario (so 1 = URA, 3 = MANT, 4 = Grand Live etc), and Scen means it's on the scenario tax banner.

**Generalist **

  • Spd - Kita (1) > Pasa (6+Scen) > Still in Love (8) > Almond Eye (10+Scen)
  • Stam - Creek (1) > Sounds (6-opt) > Shakur (9)
  • Power - Not Meta > Nishino (8+Scen)
  • Guts - Urara (1) > Orfevre (7+Scen) > Stay Gold (?)
  • Wit - Finemo (1) > Ramonu (5) > Rudolf (9)

Front

  • Spd - Smaru (3) > Falcon (8)
  • Stm - Palmer (4)
  • Wit - Bourbon (5) > Scarlet (9)
  • Note - Scarlet same banner as Generalist Stam Shakur

Pace

  • Spd - Tachyon (4+Scen)
  • Pwr - Ardan (9)
  • Wit - Mcqueen (6)

Late

  • Spd - Pokke (5) > Duramente (6)
  • Pwr - Kris (9) > Tamamo (?)
  • Wit - Nature (3) > Satono Dia (6) > Daring Tact
  • Note - Dura + Dia on same banner

End

  • Spd - Pokke (5)
  • Stm - Duramente (?)
  • Pwr - Vega (3) > Tamamo (?)
  • Wit - Mr CB (3) > Taishin (7)

Separately, does anyone have any idea of which umas long term will be great aces / parents? uma.guide only has the next 2 scenarios up with the main ones listed with at least Good/Rest importance being the following.

  • Narita Brian Blaze (Good - Pace)
  • NY Kitasan/Diamond (Must - Front / Late)
  • Valentines Fujin/Ryan (Good - Front)
  • Daiichi Ruby (Good - Pace/Late)
  • Sakura Laurel (Must - Late)
  • Neo Univesre (Must - Late)
u/Ninjaboi333 — 3 months ago

Midsummer Studio Breakdown + potential BP Priorities (+ ceilings being broken)

Last did a breakdown for this pre-Cannes. Was working on my calendar for Q3 which includes putting in updated movie release dates and tangented into looking at what each studio looks like they're currently prioritizing based on release dates and so on.

Disney (including 20th Century + Searchlight) - historically 1-2 films

  • Pretty much the only priority on the docket still looks like Wild Horse Nine, which is releasing Nov 6th.
  • Oddly enough 20th Century has a pretty empty slate for the rest of the year - only Dog Stars Aug 28 and Whalefall Oct 16.
  • This of course does not include Doomsday, Moana, or Hexed which are unlikely to get BP noms.

Universal / Focus - historically 1-2 films

  • Odyssey is still looking to be the biggest priority, for Chris Nolan shaped reasons, even if it releases outside of the Fall trimester
  • Outside of that, a couple of potential second priorities in the Sep-Dec release window include The Uprising (Sep 11) and Werewulf (Dec 25).
  • I don't know if Sense and Sensibility will have enough buzz for the Oscars, though it should do well at BAFTAs perhaps?
  • As far as other early releases, Disclosure Day and Obsession are the other most often mentioned contenders. The former I don't think has popped off enough (though we'll see if Spielberg can campaign his way to a nom) while Obsession I don't think has enough broad support (and I'm still not convinced will even get a single nom)

WBD - historically 1-2 films

  • It's pretty interesting that we may see another 1a and 1b situation between a beloved auteur with a brand name superstar and a genre film a la OBAA and Sinners from the same studio again - Digger (Oct 2) and Dune 3 (Dec 18) filling in those slots respectively.
  • Other than that, not much else on their slate screams award contender

Sony - historically 0-1 films

  • Outside a SPC surprise (which is very much in play), the biggest bet is likely Social Reckoning (Oct 9), which may play well in the current anti-Facebook sentiment. The biggest thing holding this back is Aaron Sorkin's track record as a director
  • One potential undated surprise at the moment is Ha-chan Shake Your Booty (which is an SPC film) which won the directing award at Sundance. Probably more an Indie darling though
  • Similarly Bedford Park (another SPC film) won the Special Jury Prize for Debut at Sundance, and is likely another indie awards darling.

Paramount - aside from Top Gun Maverick, historically 0 films

  • The only notable film that is even adjacent to awards baity with the new Ellison regime is Mr Irrelevant (Dec 25). Not even really worth considering.

Netflix - note dates here are streaming dates - historically at least 1

  • La Bola Negra I think has shot into their priority slot with the Dec 4 release date.
  • Cliff Booth (Dec 25 on Netflix) I think has a shot at being nominated assuming it's good especially since it would be a way for the Academy to "reward" Netflix for finally embracing theatrical more.
  • In 3rd I would say is the undated Kwedar / Bently flim Saturn Return.

Amazon/MGM - historically as part of streaming there are 2-3

  • The big priority looks to be Project Hail Mary from earlier in the year - being a theatrical hit means it can kind of cheat the streamer stigma. The only hurdle might be between Odyssey and Dune if the Academy thinks there are too many blockbusters.
  • The only real notable one might be I Play Rocky (Nov 13) by the dirctor of Green Book, but after the flop of Greatest Beer Run ever, I don't put much weight in that.

Apple - historically as part of streaming 2-3

  • Nothing really on their slate. There is a Tenzing biopic (Oct 16) and then the undated This Is How It Goes (Idris Elba based on the West End play he starred in) and Being Heumann (biopic of disability rights activist by director of CODA SIan Heder), but I'd be surprised if they make it in

A24 - Historically 2-3 among all the indie studios

  • The big one looks to be the as of right now undated "The Debut" by Jesse Eisenberg with a stacked cast.
  • I don't think any of their early releases (Drama, Backrooms, Invite, Tony) will get in, nor will their festival pickup Club Kid.
  • The undated Primetime starring Rob Pattinson might be interesting, though the documentary about How to Catch a Predator last year not getting nominated might not be a good sign for it.

Neon - Historically 2-3 among all Indie studios

  • Fjord (Oct 9) winning the Palm is of course their favorite and main priority.
  • In their second tier if they were to get a second one might be All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi, undated) or The Unknown (Harari, undated). Paper Tiger also by James Gray (Nov 13) is a possibility.
  • I don't think I Love Boosters, Hope, or A Place in Hell will be able to squeeze in

MUBI - only 1 to date

  • All 3 of their Cannes pickups (Fatherland, Minotaur, Coward) are undated and I don't know which one would be the one they push. I think the big issue for them is that between Bola Negra and Fjord there are already 2 big international films. And unless one of these three breaks out like Parasite, given how strong last year's slate was and we still couldn't break to 3 foreign films in Best Picture, they would need to pull off a miracle here. The fact that Substance also was carried by the Demi Moore narrative which I'm not sure these films have is also an uphill challenge. Maybe Sandra Huller career year but she's also appearing elsewhere.

Miscellaneous Studios

  • Michael - I think it's out of Best Picture with at least 3 other blockbusters already ahead of it. I think it can still get a BTL nom though. It'll come down to the behind the scenes campaigning the Michael estate and Lionsgate does which I don't know if Lionsgate has the juice to do so still after all these years.
  • Josephine - The big winner from Sundance, they ended up getting a nobody distributor (Sumerian) which may spell doom for them. Still worth mentioning since the last time a film won both the US Jury and Audience awards at Sundance we got CODA and Minari.

Two other thing worth noting that I've mentioned above - historically there has never been more than 2 films that made more than $500M at the box office in Best Picture. We also have seen that Foreign Language films have ticked up in frequency in BP over the years, though has not yet broken the 2 per year mark.

Going with all of the above, here's a loose prediction

  1. Wild Horse Nine - Disney 1/(1-2)
  2. Odyssey - Universal 1/(1-2) + Blockbuster 1/2
  3. Digger - WBD 1/(1-2)
  4. Dune 3 - WBD 2/(1-2) + Blockbuster 2/2
  5. La Bola Negra - Streamer 1/(2-3) + Foreign 1/2
  6. Cliff Booth - Streamer 2/(2-3)
  7. Fjord - Indie 1/(2-3) + Foreign 2/2
  8. The Debut - Indie 2/(2-3)
  9. Wildcard 1 (Indie) - could break Foreign 2 film ceiling
  10. Wildcard 2 (Studio) (lean toward PHM) - could break Blockbuster 2 film ceiling

Probably the hottest take here at the moment is that Project Hail Mary is not a lock for me - the main barrier is the 2 megablockbuster historical ceiling we've seen. That said it would be appropriate that the Academy awards Amazon for supporting theatrical by giving their highest grossing film ever a BP nom.

Indie Wildcard if we don't think there will be more than 2 foreign films is likely Paper Tiger. If we do break that barrier, then it's either All of a Sudden, or any of the 3 MUBI films (Fatherland, Minotaur, Coward, whichever they prioritize). Josephine coming in would be a very big (if welcome) surprise.

Studio Wildcard could be Project Hail Mary (which would break the 2 mega blockbuster barrier for the first time as noted). It could also be a 2nd Universal film who is the most consistent at getting multiple noms - my bet would be on The Uprising followed by Werewulf, though Disclosure Day could sneak in depending on how Spielberg campaigns. Another possibility for this wildcard is Social Reckoning if anti-social media sentiment is high at that point + if Sorkin learned how to be a better director. I don't think Michael breaks in but if it does it would be in this slot. Or of course we can have a SPC surprise with a steel chair

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u/Ninjaboi333 — 4 months ago

Baybabyin Script in New Forgotten Island Trailer

Toward the stinger at the end of the trailer, a couple of signs in baybabyin. Unfortuantely I'm just a Fil-Am with a limited vocabulary but would love to see if anyone can help me translate the script! I think the second one with the eskrima / arnis sticks literally translates to Eskrima

Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f7mFVeWnVLw

u/Ninjaboi333 — 4 months ago
▲ 118 r/magicTCG

[SLD] Secret Lair: Cats Are the Best Superdrop Financial Breakdown

NEW SECRET LAIR ALERT

Just a reminder since people continually misconstrue the purpose this analysis - this is not meant to be an assessment of whether the cards in these drops will have the same value after they release (they usually won't, especially in cases where the value listed below is of a rarely reprinted foil). We also know that these specific SLD versions of cards will usually retain (in aggregate) at least the combined value of what you pay for them even if the original version cheaper.

Rather, this is meant for the scenario of "if you were looking for the cards in these drops already, are you better off grabbing these or grabbing the cheapest version available on the market?" I also provide a metric of "per card premium" if the answer is no, so that you know how much more you are paying for the bling / art factor. Numbers come from Scryfall at time of writing, analysis does not factor in discount for bulk purchases on the website or shipping or any bundles.

In addition, I will note any first time reprints and foil versions, as well as any cards that are new to Secret Lair as part of an effort to decide if I want to get the drops for my SLD only cube.

Official WotC post here


Secret Lair x Garfield: Motivationally Challenged - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Rin and Seri, Inseparable as "Garfield and Odie, Best Buds" - $13.31 nonfoil / $36.16 foil
  • 1x Orim's Chant as "Talk to the Paw" - $6.20 nonfoil / $7.88 foil
  • 1x Ponder as "Hang in There" - $1.38 nonfoil / $5.55 foil
  • 1x Beast Within as "I Hate Mondays" - $0.46 nonfoil / $5.51 foil
  • 1x Sol Ring - $1.08 nonfoil / $1.32 foil

Total - $22.43 nonfoil / $56.42 foil

Per Card Premium - $1.51 nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Orim's Chant

Putting aside my thoughts on how good a property Garfield is overall, this one has some value in foil due to the ever popular Rin and Seri reprint (the 43rd most popular commander for a reason). Orim's Chant is also a notable first time to Secret Lair print here - 1.7% in EDH, plus part of various Modern decks, most notably Boros Energy's Sideboard. Ponder (11.7% EDH, Legacy staple) is also of note here, as is Beast Within (33% EDH) as the go to catchall removal for Green, plus the ubiquitous Sol Ring. One moderate criticism here is that Ponder does not fit into Rin and Seri so this doesn't quite work as a starter kit for a Rin and Seri deck.

Secret Lair x Garfield: As Intended - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Swords to Plowshares - $1.25 nonfoil / $3.17 foil
  • 1x Counterspell - $2.00 nonfoil / $2.31 foil
  • 1x Dark Ritual - $3.96 nonfoil / $8.41 foil
  • 1x Earthquake - $0.46 nonfoil / $11.99 foil - first English foil since 2010 ($25.63 for M10, $11.99 is a Duel Masters Japanese promo)
  • 1x Fog - $0.22 nonfoil / $0.54 foil

Total - $7.89 nonfoil / $26.42 foil

Per Card Premium - $4.42 nonfoil / $2.71 foil

New to Secret Lair: Earthquake, Fog

I get that the joke here is that we combine the "Magic as (Richard) Garfield intended" with a bunch of cards originally printed in Alpha. But given that most of those cards printed in Alpha have sub $5 prices, the real punchline here is the per card premium you're paying for this art (which doesn't even take up the full card as most SLDs do). The fact that this also is a 5 card, 5 different colored cards means it doesn't work as a package for EDH decks that you can slot in outside of 5c. Sure some see decent play (StP 60%, Counterspell 41.7%, Dark Ritual 25% vs Earthquake 1.2% and Fog 4.1%) but part of that is that they are so ubiquitously available. At the very least it is cool for Earthquake to get a foil version for the first time in over 15 years, and for both it and Fog to be available for my SLD only cube, but at what cost?

Secret Lair x Garfield: Our Only Thought Is to Entertain You - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x It That Betrays - $12.01 nonfoil / $37.44 foil
  • 1x Maddening Cacophony - $7.50 nonfoil / $7.72 foil
  • 1x Maddening Hex - $1.90 nonfoil / $6.85 foil
  • 1x Hunter's Insight - $0.33 nonfoil / $0.41 foil
  • 1x Molten Collapse - $0.31 nonfoil / $0.34 foil - first reprint since LCI

Total - $22.05 nonfoil / $52.76 foil

Per Card Premium - $1.59 nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Maddening Hex, Hunter's Insight, Molten Collapse

Much like /r/imsorryjon is much more entertaining than the actual Garfield comics, and in the same vein as the Oddbodies Furby drop, at the very for me the art here is much more interesting than the "original" source material. Value wise it's pretty lopsided with most of the value here in the It that Betrays (which frankly is only really played in Eldrazi typal decks) which already had a SLD drop. Maddening Cacopahy is of course a mill staple. The other cards frankly are kind of duds value wise (even if they are all first time to Secret Lair) - in particular Molten Collapse being a bulk rare from a couple of years ago, and Hunter's Insight messing with this possibly being a Grixis package.

Purr Majesty - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Court of Grace - $3.16 nonfoil / $2.88 foil
  • 1x Reverent Mantra - $21.27 nonfoil / $98.10 foil - First time Reprint since Mercadian Masques
  • 1x Windborn Muse - $0.52 nonfoil / $0.53 foil
  • 1x Queen Marchesa - $0.92 nonfoil / $2.96 foil
  • 1x Ruinous Ultimatum - $0.66 nonfoil / $3.28 foil - first reprint since LCI

Total - $26.57 nonfoil / $107.75 foil (most of that in the first time reprint of Mantra)

Per Card Premium - $0.68 nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: Reverent Mantra, Windborn Muse, Ruinous Ultimatum

First off, subjectively this is the best official art for Queen Marchesa, bar none. Anyway, brought to us by Australian painter Vanessa Stockard who is known for sneaking her cats Kevin (the one with the crown), Fluff (his mom) and Satan (the angry looking one) into her paintings, we have a pretty solid Mardu starter kit deck around Queen Marchesa (long may she reign, EDH rank 84) - Court of Grace (2.1%) reinforces the monarchy theme, Windborn Muse (3.2% EDHRec) and Ultimatum (18.4% EDHRec) act as ways to keep you from losing the monarchy. Value wise, yes most of this is put into Mantra getting its first ever reprint. But frankly that's a pretty powerful effect that is Force of Will adjacent and works with the gameplan - the only reason it's not being played more is obscurity and price. If FoW can be in 9.7% of blue decks, this one will def increase from its 0.1% inclusion rate with this reprint. Plus if you really like cute fluffballs, I have a feeling that paying about a dollar more per card for cute art that all goes in the same deck is a price you're willing to pay.

Witch's Familiar - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Sheltered by Ghosts - $1.11 nonfoil / $4.09 foil - first foil reprint since DSK
  • 1x Spirit of the Hearth - $0.38 nonfoil / $1.09 foil
  • 1x Witch Enchanter // Witch-Blessed Meadow - $3.03 nonfoil / $7.55 foil - first reprint since MH3
  • 1x Wayfarer's Bauble - $0.28 nonfoil / $0.43 foil
  • 1x Boseiju, Who Shelters All - $16.78 nonfoil / $15.60 foil

Total - $21.85 nonfoil / $28.76 foil

Per Card Premium - $1.62 nonfoil / $2.24 foil

New to Secret Lair: All except Boseiju

With art from Simzart, we have a very cozy looking drop that makes for a nice package into any white adjacent EDH deck - Sheltered by Ghosts (2.5%), Witch Enchanter (7.5% plus Modern and Legacy play), Bauble (7.02%) are all solid staples. Boseiju not quite as much as a colorless utility land though it's also pricey. I will say these are more general good cards than any specific synergies - a bit of creature removal, a bit of protection, a MDFC card, a bit of ramp, a spellslinger utility land. Valuewise, it is sadly a bit lacking - colorless Boseiju is not quite as valuable as the Channel version, and the last SLD printing is available enough that the foil prince doesn't quite get there. But if you like a lo-fi witchy aesthetic in your white deck, you could do a lot worse.

Felix the Cat: Magic Bag of Tricks - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Future Sight - $0.25 nonfoil / $0.44 foil
  • 1x Time Stretch - $3.11 nonfoil / $4.22 foil
  • 1x Barrowgoyf as "Feral Felix" - $13.89 nonfoil / NA foil - first reprint since M3C, first foil
  • 1x Throes of Chaos - $0.20 nonfoil / $0.78 foil
  • 1x Mind's Eye - $5.23 nonfoil / $7.54 foil

Total - $22.68 nonfoil / $12.98 + first Barrowgoyf foil (if you assume foil = nonfoil, $26.87)

Per Card Premium - $1.46 nonfoil / TBD foil

New to Secret Lair: Barrowgoyf, Throes of Chaos, Mind's Eye

Coming from the land of public domain, we have Felix the Cat in a Grixis package. The big headline card here is the reskinned Barrowgoyf which is getting its first reprint and first foil version, which makes calculating the per card premium of the foils hard to calculate. While subjectively I enjoy this art (in particular Wizard of Barge's Throes of Chaos), I have to admit these aren't really staples in EDH, with most of them clocking in sub 1% play rate.

Toby's Journey by Gary Baseman - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Sovereign Okinec Ahau as "All-Seeing Toby" - $3.55 nonfoil / $3.73 foil - first reprint since LCI
  • 1x Trailblazer's Boots - $1.27 nonfoil / $2.36 foil
  • 1x Long Goodbye - $0.27 nonfoil / $0.33 foil - first reprint since MKM
  • 1x Farseek - $0.59 nonfoil / $2.05 foil
  • 1x Prismatic Vista - $37.35 nonfoil / $42.12 foil

Total - $43.03 nonfoil / $50.59 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: All except Farseek

With Gary Baseman returning for his second SLD drop after his all basic lands drop, it is only appropriate that the most valuable card in this drop (and frankly the main reason aside from art that you want this drop) is Legacy and Modern staple Prismatic Vista, which will let you fetch up your Gary Baseman art of choice. Frankly this is a situation similar to the John Avon Emrakul drop a while back where the presence of a single card worth more than what you're paying for the drop makes it worth it already. The other cards don't have any real value - we're really including an MKM uncommon removal that's not in even 0.3% of Black EDH decks and ruins the potential of this being a GW starter kit? At the very least we do get another cat in this superdrop. But yeah you're basically getting this drop for the Prismatic Vista and the rest is gravy.

Cats of Chaos - $29.99 nonfoil / $39.99 foil

  • 1x Fell the Mighty- $0.22 nonfoil / $0.38 foil
  • 1x Aggravated Assault - $27.44 nonfoil / $29.51 foil
  • 1x Chaos Warp - $0.33 nonfoil / $1.44 foil
  • 1x Utopia Sprawl - $1.02 nonfoil / $1.74 foil
  • 1x Aura Shards - $17.75 nonfoil / $42.21 foil

Total - $46.76 nonfoil / $75.28 foil

Per Card Premium - NA nonfoil / NA foil

New to Secret Lair: NA

While this drop doesn't give me any new cards for the SLD cube, we somehow have even more value than the Prismatic Vista drop. The highest priced card may not be as much as Vista, but we have two heavy hitters here in Aggravated Assault and Aura Shards. While perhaps not the finisher of choice in EDH decks as it used to be, it still has a respectable 3.9% inclusion rate. Meanwhile Gamechanger Aura Shards is a repeatable Naturalize for any GW go wide deck at a 7% inclusion in those colors. Fell the Mighty while cheap does have applications in high toughness decks, good enough for 2.4% inclusion, and Utopia Sprawl is a powerful t1 ramp option, good for 7.2% inclusion. And of course Chaos Warp is red's de facto universal removal at 29.1%. So even the cheap cards have utility here. Plus bonus (aside from the cat art), these all fit naturally in a Naya go wide deck - perhaps alongside the Garfield and Odie skin of Rin and Seri earlier in this post?


In total, the cheapest nonfoil version of all cards included totals up to $213.26. If you get the nonfoil bundle, that will set you back $224.99, so a pcp of all art on average of $0.29 per card across the 40 cards. Buying each bundle individually is $239.92, so you're saying on about half a drop if you buy the bundle

The cheapest foil versions of all cards will total up to $410.96 (including the $98.10 Reverent Mantra) + whatever foil Barrowgoyf is worth. The foil bundle will be $299.99 so you're coming in ahead, even if you exclude the Mantra. Again, buying all 8 drops individually is $319.92 so you're saying about half a drop if you buy the bundle.

The joint bundle is $519.99, compared to the $624.22 + foil Barrowgoyf on the current market for one of each foil and nonfoil (excluding Mantra, it's still $526.12). Buying the one of each foil and nonfoil drop individually will be $559.84, so you're saving about $40, or about one foil drop for free.


TLDR (ratings are my own subjective score combining taste + price + "bundleability" aka how well the cards play together in a single deck. pcp = per card premium)

  • 2/5 nonfoil | 2.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Garfield: Motivationally Challenged - $1.51 pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - For the Garfield lovers out there, especially if you want Rin and Seri
  • 0.5/5 nonfoil | 0.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Garfield: As Intended - $4.42 pcp nonfoil / $2.71 pcp foil - For the Garfield completionists only
  • 2.5/5 nonfoil | 3/5 foil - Secret Lair x Garfield: Our Only Thought Is to Entertain You - $1.59 pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - for me the better Garfield art
  • 4/5 nonfoil | 4.5/5 foil - Purr Majesty - $0.68 pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - A Queen Marchesa starter kit + first time reprint of Reverent Mantra + adorable cat art. Peak SLD
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 2.5/5 foil - Witch's Familiar - 1.62 pcp nonfoil / $2.24 pcp foil - Not the best value especially in foil, funnily enough, but a decent enough staples kit for white with cute art
  • 3/5 nonfoil | 3.5/5 foil - Secret Lair x Felix the Cat: Magic Bag of Tricks - $1.46 pcp nonfoil / TBD pcp foil - some fun art of a fun character that also is a nice Grixis package, plus a first time foil Barrowgoyf
  • 4.5/5 nonfoil | 4.5/5 foil - Toby's Journey by Gary Baseman - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - GET THIS DROP - A chance to get a below market rate Prismatic Vista with some nostalgic art from Gary Baseman? heck yea
  • 5/5 nonfoil | 5/5 foil - Cats of Chaos - NA pcp nonfoil / NA pcp foil - GET THIS DROP The only reason I didn't give Toby's Journey a 5/5 is that this drop has two valuable cards, and is a complete package for a Naya commander deck.

I'm likely to try and get at least Toby's Journey and Cats of Chaos for value, Purr Majesty, Witch's Familiar and Felix for art. Undecided if I'll splurge for the nonfoil drop and get the Garfield drops as well.

u/Ninjaboi333 — 4 months ago