Midsummer Studio Breakdown + potential BP Priorities (+ ceilings being broken)
Last did a breakdown for this pre-Cannes. Was working on my calendar for Q3 which includes putting in updated movie release dates and tangented into looking at what each studio looks like they're currently prioritizing based on release dates and so on.
Disney (including 20th Century + Searchlight) - historically 1-2 films
- Pretty much the only priority on the docket still looks like Wild Horse Nine, which is releasing Nov 6th.
- Oddly enough 20th Century has a pretty empty slate for the rest of the year - only Dog Stars Aug 28 and Whalefall Oct 16.
- This of course does not include Doomsday, Moana, or Hexed which are unlikely to get BP noms.
Universal / Focus - historically 1-2 films
- Odyssey is still looking to be the biggest priority, for Chris Nolan shaped reasons, even if it releases outside of the Fall trimester
- Outside of that, a couple of potential second priorities in the Sep-Dec release window include The Uprising (Sep 11) and Werewulf (Dec 25).
- I don't know if Sense and Sensibility will have enough buzz for the Oscars, though it should do well at BAFTAs perhaps?
- As far as other early releases, Disclosure Day and Obsession are the other most often mentioned contenders. The former I don't think has popped off enough (though we'll see if Spielberg can campaign his way to a nom) while Obsession I don't think has enough broad support (and I'm still not convinced will even get a single nom)
WBD - historically 1-2 films
- It's pretty interesting that we may see another 1a and 1b situation between a beloved auteur with a brand name superstar and a genre film a la OBAA and Sinners from the same studio again - Digger (Oct 2) and Dune 3 (Dec 18) filling in those slots respectively.
- Other than that, not much else on their slate screams award contender
Sony - historically 0-1 films
- Outside a SPC surprise (which is very much in play), the biggest bet is likely Social Reckoning (Oct 9), which may play well in the current anti-Facebook sentiment. The biggest thing holding this back is Aaron Sorkin's track record as a director
- One potential undated surprise at the moment is Ha-chan Shake Your Booty (which is an SPC film) which won the directing award at Sundance. Probably more an Indie darling though
- Similarly Bedford Park (another SPC film) won the Special Jury Prize for Debut at Sundance, and is likely another indie awards darling.
Paramount - aside from Top Gun Maverick, historically 0 films
- The only notable film that is even adjacent to awards baity with the new Ellison regime is Mr Irrelevant (Dec 25). Not even really worth considering.
Netflix - note dates here are streaming dates - historically at least 1
- La Bola Negra I think has shot into their priority slot with the Dec 4 release date.
- Cliff Booth (Dec 25 on Netflix) I think has a shot at being nominated assuming it's good especially since it would be a way for the Academy to "reward" Netflix for finally embracing theatrical more.
- In 3rd I would say is the undated Kwedar / Bently flim Saturn Return.
Amazon/MGM - historically as part of streaming there are 2-3
- The big priority looks to be Project Hail Mary from earlier in the year - being a theatrical hit means it can kind of cheat the streamer stigma. The only hurdle might be between Odyssey and Dune if the Academy thinks there are too many blockbusters.
- The only real notable one might be I Play Rocky (Nov 13) by the dirctor of Green Book, but after the flop of Greatest Beer Run ever, I don't put much weight in that.
Apple - historically as part of streaming 2-3
- Nothing really on their slate. There is a Tenzing biopic (Oct 16) and then the undated This Is How It Goes (Idris Elba based on the West End play he starred in) and Being Heumann (biopic of disability rights activist by director of CODA SIan Heder), but I'd be surprised if they make it in
A24 - Historically 2-3 among all the indie studios
- The big one looks to be the as of right now undated "The Debut" by Jesse Eisenberg with a stacked cast.
- I don't think any of their early releases (Drama, Backrooms, Invite, Tony) will get in, nor will their festival pickup Club Kid.
- The undated Primetime starring Rob Pattinson might be interesting, though the documentary about How to Catch a Predator last year not getting nominated might not be a good sign for it.
Neon - Historically 2-3 among all Indie studios
- Fjord (Oct 9) winning the Palm is of course their favorite and main priority.
- In their second tier if they were to get a second one might be All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi, undated) or The Unknown (Harari, undated). Paper Tiger also by James Gray (Nov 13) is a possibility.
- I don't think I Love Boosters, Hope, or A Place in Hell will be able to squeeze in
MUBI - only 1 to date
- All 3 of their Cannes pickups (Fatherland, Minotaur, Coward) are undated and I don't know which one would be the one they push. I think the big issue for them is that between Bola Negra and Fjord there are already 2 big international films. And unless one of these three breaks out like Parasite, given how strong last year's slate was and we still couldn't break to 3 foreign films in Best Picture, they would need to pull off a miracle here. The fact that Substance also was carried by the Demi Moore narrative which I'm not sure these films have is also an uphill challenge. Maybe Sandra Huller career year but she's also appearing elsewhere.
Miscellaneous Studios
- Michael - I think it's out of Best Picture with at least 3 other blockbusters already ahead of it. I think it can still get a BTL nom though. It'll come down to the behind the scenes campaigning the Michael estate and Lionsgate does which I don't know if Lionsgate has the juice to do so still after all these years.
- Josephine - The big winner from Sundance, they ended up getting a nobody distributor (Sumerian) which may spell doom for them. Still worth mentioning since the last time a film won both the US Jury and Audience awards at Sundance we got CODA and Minari.
Two other thing worth noting that I've mentioned above - historically there has never been more than 2 films that made more than $500M at the box office in Best Picture. We also have seen that Foreign Language films have ticked up in frequency in BP over the years, though has not yet broken the 2 per year mark.
Going with all of the above, here's a loose prediction
- Wild Horse Nine - Disney 1/(1-2)
- Odyssey - Universal 1/(1-2) + Blockbuster 1/2
- Digger - WBD 1/(1-2)
- Dune 3 - WBD 2/(1-2) + Blockbuster 2/2
- La Bola Negra - Streamer 1/(2-3) + Foreign 1/2
- Cliff Booth - Streamer 2/(2-3)
- Fjord - Indie 1/(2-3) + Foreign 2/2
- The Debut - Indie 2/(2-3)
- Wildcard 1 (Indie) - could break Foreign 2 film ceiling
- Wildcard 2 (Studio) (lean toward PHM) - could break Blockbuster 2 film ceiling
Probably the hottest take here at the moment is that Project Hail Mary is not a lock for me - the main barrier is the 2 megablockbuster historical ceiling we've seen. That said it would be appropriate that the Academy awards Amazon for supporting theatrical by giving their highest grossing film ever a BP nom.
Indie Wildcard if we don't think there will be more than 2 foreign films is likely Paper Tiger. If we do break that barrier, then it's either All of a Sudden, or any of the 3 MUBI films (Fatherland, Minotaur, Coward, whichever they prioritize). Josephine coming in would be a very big (if welcome) surprise.
Studio Wildcard could be Project Hail Mary (which would break the 2 mega blockbuster barrier for the first time as noted). It could also be a 2nd Universal film who is the most consistent at getting multiple noms - my bet would be on The Uprising followed by Werewulf, though Disclosure Day could sneak in depending on how Spielberg campaigns. Another possibility for this wildcard is Social Reckoning if anti-social media sentiment is high at that point + if Sorkin learned how to be a better director. I don't think Michael breaks in but if it does it would be in this slot. Or of course we can have a SPC surprise with a steel chair