How do you evaluate an AI agent that gives fuzzy, probabilistic outputs?
I'm new to building AI agents and working on a CI-review agent: it takes a failing CI run and tries to find the root cause.
I want to start with a baseline version, then iterate on it — but I need a way to measure whether a new version is actually outperforming the old one.
Right now the agent maintains several hypotheses about the failure, assigns each a probability, and updates those probabilities as it gathers more information. Depending on its confidence, it either outputs a summary of the likely root cause, or escalates to a human developer if uncertainty is too high.
Two questions:
- How do you evaluate an agent like this, where the output isn't a single "correct" answer but a probability distribution over hypotheses?
- How do you get a labeled dataset of CI failures with known root causes, so I can score the agent's probability estimates against ground truth instead of just eyeballing whether the output "feels right"?