u/No_Nebula2521

(-repost post removal, archiving)

In the first hour they were given, Yokoya had already realized the real smuggling strategy, but he couldn't have executed it right then because the rotation was unpredictable: no one knew when southern country would end up changing rotations, so if you convince one person you don't know when their next turn would come and whether they are still on your side by that time. In the initial rotation of the southern country, you will see the same player after 8 whole turns. Who knows what would happen in those turns and if you'd even be able to find the traitors successfully and your plan won't be affected by the changing of rotations.

Yokoya solved this problem by making their rotations systematic through his clairvoyance tactic. Looking at Yokoya, do you really think that he wouldn't have considered the possibility of clairvoyance failing if the southern country became too scared to carry anything?

Here is what happened which caused clairvoyance failure:

Yokoya pretends to be clairvoyant

Southern country gets scared of carrying money

Kikuzawa claims he can stop their smuggling attempts and earn money

South stops carrying anything

Yokoya stops making profit

Yokoya stops giving Kikuzawa signal

Kikuzawa acts suspicious

Akiyama sees through Yokoya and Kikuzawa

Akiyama removes Kikuzawa from the rotation as punishment

What if I tell you that all of this happening was within Yokoya's prediction from the moment he first talked to Kikuzawa? What if I tell you that this is exactly what Yokoya wanted?

Now why would Yokoya want this? Simply because he wanted to change the southern country rotation from one person going at a time to 1 person going twice in a row because this is the most likely rotation after Kikuzawa's removal. They couldn't have kept using their previous rotation because there would be a problem: if you remove one person from the OG rotation, you'd realize that now a person can only go either as an inspector or a smuggler but not both, which is why they were sending one person twice in a row.

Rotation Analysis

We know that Kikuzawa monopolized the Inspector rounds due to his “clairvoyance” so it’s natural to know that the Southern Country would be attempting to exclude him from this post once his connection to Yokoya was discovered.

Before Kikuzawa was found, the player’s rounds were like this:

Smuggler : Player 1

Inspector : Kikuzawa

Smuggler : Player 2

Inspector : Kikuzawa

Now, since Kikuzawa was found and excluded, there are spots available for the Inspector rounds which leads the Southern Country to logically do this:

Smuggler : Player 1

Inspector : Player 1

Smuggler : Player 2

Inspector : Player 2

You might be asking yourself, why did the Southern Country choose this order?

Well, let’s think this through: what happens once Kikuzawa is exposed? Naturally, he should be punished. And in this game, the obvious penalty would be to make him skip a few turns according to Fukunaga’s strategy, right? That would both punish him and help offset the damage done to the victims.

But here’s the problem. If Kikuzawa’s turns are skipped, the total number of active turns drops from nine to eight since each team has 9 members. In other words, the lineup now has an even number of moves. Do you see where this is going? With an even count, if Kikuzawa is forced to miss—say, two turns—the sequence of roles for everyone else doesn’t shift. That means each player keeps the same job round after round.

For example, if Glasses is currently a Smuggler, he’ll stay a Smuggler every time. Imagine the order: Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler. If Kikuzawa keeps missing, and the rest continue in this same pattern—one at a time, no double turns—the roles remain locked. And that’s a disaster in a smuggling game. Why? Because everyone needs to be a Smuggler at some point to earn money. That’s the most effective way to win.

So if Akiyama’s group simply skipped a few of Kikuzawa’s turns without changing the system, the four players stuck as Inspectors would be in a hopeless position. The southern country would have no choice but to come up with a workaround. Their options?

Don’t punish Kikuzawa at all.

Give one teammate a huge advantage (unlikely, given Nao’s nature and everyone else’s greed).

Or allow players to take two turns in a row to break the cycle.

Because here’s the crux: With an odd number of players, the rotation naturally lets everyone become a Smuggler over time. But with an even number, the roles “freeze,” locking players in place—unless someone acts to disrupt the order. Now the players in Akiyama’s team have to be Inspector and Smuggler in succession.

All of this was manipulated by Yokoya himself, he engineered that Kikuzawa would monopolize the Inspector rounds and when found, Akiyama’s team ordered play which would mean that the players would be Smuggler-inspector in succession. Why did Yokoya pull this logical manipulation? He did it in order to wait for the moment where Southern country pulls this order so that he can execute the real smuggling strategy when it will be the turn of the greediest players who are Tsunoda, Eda and Kitamura (while playing the clairvoyant Inspector, Yokoya took time to observe nearly all the Southern players and inferred that he can use those three for the real smuggling strategy).

This is what Yokoya wanted from the beginning simply because now all the money they give to the traitors can be submitted back to the northern ATM asap. Furthermore, Yokoya even misdirects Akiyama from his actual strat. How? Think about what the best way of winning contraband is, it's to lose in the outside account while smuggling more. The clairvoyance tactic was achieving exactly that—southern country were too afraid to smuggle anything, but they were winning through inspections. Yokoya actually conditioned Akiyama and his team to become afraid to smuggle anything which in turn backfires for them. Yokoya knew the moment Akiyama realizes the true nature of contraband he'd think this is what Yokoya was aiming for. But in truth Yokoya wanted clairvoyance to fail so that he'd be able to change their rotation from the very beginning.

Now for the cherry on top, Yokoya came up with everything I said so far right when he saw Akiyama perform the bundle trick, why? Because that's when he knew Akiyama would be smart enough to see through clairvoyance tactic. In short: everything so far in contraband was planned by Yokoya literally everything even clairvoyance failure.

Additional Insights

Another way Yokoya took advantage of the clairvoyance failure was that he anticipated that Kikuzawa would eventually be found out by Akiyama and spill the beans to everyone on the southern country team about Yokoya's past history in school and how he ruled through fear. This led to the revelation of Yokoya's school backstory and allowing southern country to deduce that northern country was likely ruled through fear. Building on this, Yokoya instructed his players to act as if they genuinely disliked him, knowing this would trick sourthern country into believing that at least some of his teammates wanted to betray his dictatorship. Because their fabricated stories perfectly matched Akiyama’s assumptions, it made it easier for the three suckers to believe that northern country members were terrified of Yokoya, causing them to lower their guard and fall into the trap of depositing money into the ATMs, which basically seals the game.

Yokoya actually improved the method for using the real smuggling strategy: unlike Akiyama, who was going to be truthful about this strategy to the traitor and also pay him money for the job at the end of the game, in Yokoya's method they were actually deceived.

Sequence of events:

Mid-Day 1, Yokoya got countered, Kikuzawa confesses and Nao comes up with settlement.

Fukunaga Inspects and Smuggles, succeeds.

Tsunoda (spiky hair) Inspects and Smuggles, got tricked into depositing 300 million.

Eda (chubby) Inspects and Smuggles, got tricked into depositing 300 million.

Akiyama Inspects, Day 1 ends, Akiyama explains "low ATM is good".

Day 2 begins, Akiyama Smuggles while experimenting with ATM cards.

Nao Inspects and Smuggles, chattering for prospective Northern collaborators.

Akiyama explains his strategy, while Kitamura (glasses) goes to Inspect and didn't hear his plan.

Tsunoda and Eda are questioned by Nao and Fukunaga, while Kitamura Smuggles and got tricked into depositing 1.31.

Yokoya is genuinely insane :

Yokoya and Kiku used the exact same smuggling strategy but explained it differently to hide the fact that they were secretly working together.

After learning about Yokoya's dictatorial style through Kiku's confessions and Nao's conversation with Yokoya, Akiyama proposed a situation where northern team's members likely felt some sort of resentment towards Yokoya, unbeknownst to him that Yokoya had anticipated him forming this exact line of reasoning.

Because Yokoya carried out his strategy before Akiyama even started explaining his own winning strategy, Tsunoda and Eda had no way of knowing why taking the money was a mistake. Since Akiyama's deduction perfectly aligned with what the supposed traitors were saying, they fell for the trick completely. Yokoya also understood that both of them and Kitamura were desperate for money but were too scared to smuggle, which explains why they were so willing to take the cash.

This means that Yokoya not only foresaw everything that happened, but also put the real smuggling strategy into action before Akiyama could even begin explaining it to his team. Crazy.

Yokoya truly massively outplayed Akiyama the first day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/liargame/comments/1uvherl/liar_game_episode_15_discussionreaction/

s/o u/Alert-Researcher7788 and u/BubblyCrash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-g_fxdQvzQc

s/o imdragony6621, rebonn6, Humorunravelled, david90906 and Infilama

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e5UQ2TC5Pb5UCjgl_OLMG63u-uYfRhLgHwCpSle0zkM/edit?tab=t.0 s/o u/Melodic_Ad1005(author), Wanoxx and Andriku(mentioned contributors)

considered making a post since no other media, aside from Cridemord’s video, actually breaks down the feat into Premises & Conclusions, allowing for a clearer / more accessible full extent understanding of how insane Akiyama’s reasoning / foresight abilities really are (alongside other cats such as FRI / formulation speed, scheming integration / misdirection). Notice how absurd the number of P & C Akiyama had to reason out is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8weGLntV6U&t=7710s

During Bid Poker, first Akiyama started reasoning what the foundation of the game is based on while also reasoning what will the enemy do in this game according to the prize rules.

P1: Bid Poker is a game of trading where the main idea is purchasing cards that work well together for a cheap price in order to strengthen your hand and achieve a good position.

P2: The ideal in a scenario where you sell in order to discard a useless card and get resources to later buy a better one is to make as much profit when you sell your own cards.

C1: With this in mind, the surface of Bid Poker seems like a buy low and sell high system.

C2: While this seems like the game's nature, Akiyama recognizes this in practice fails because bidding few coins for a card means someone else can easily outbid your offer, which makes getting cards for a cheap price impossible. And if you discard a card, it doesn't automatically mean this card will be sold for a high price.

P3: Akiyama thinks in a scenario where four players with each 200 coins and cards that work for the others team up, rotating full resources and cards unconditionally, leading to 800 coins in total disposition. With this, they prevent third parties from interfering with their trading consecutively moving coins and cards between them, which makes them able to secure victory.

C3: Bid Poker instead of being a classic bidding system is in reality a majority rule one. Since this strategy of rotation will secure victory to its executives rather than those who play it with the mindset of buy low, sell high, players that can't make a deck will be eliminated and known as pigs.

P5: The first place will get a 100 million reward per pig.

P6: The second place will get a 40 million reward per pig.

P7: The third place will get a 10 million reward per pig.

C4: The more pigs there are, the bigger the prize for the top three players.

P8: Harimoto will aim to get first place since he is the leader of the cult.

P9: The other members of the group will try to place second and third.

P10: Considering C4 they will try to increase the number of pigs to make more money. Bid Poker developed so far with Akiyama and Harimoto getting one additional deck while two players remained cardless. Akiyama at this point knows the majority rule can secure his victory. However, when Nao asks them to discard their extra decks to give them to the deckless, Akiyama quickly reasons the deck discarding repercussions. From this point forward, all of premises and conclusions are predictions from Akiyama, anticipating a scenario where Harimoto and him discard their extra cards and how the game will develop afterwards.

P11: Based on C4. Harimoto won't accept this deal since it's not good for him if two players get a deck.

P12: Even if Harimoto accepts and keeps his word, the deckless players can at best qualify for the next round, being unable to repay all their debts, same as the other players.

P13: Considering C4, the most convenient strategy for Akiyama based on his NPL plan, is to achieve first place while making tons of money either via pigs or coins. This way, plus Nao's coins at his disposal, he will be able to pay every player's debt.

P14: Harimoto will appeal to distrust towards Akiyama rather than telling his true intentions of making them lose because his followers consider him a saint.

P15: If Akiyama agrees and exchanges tablets with Nao while he goes to the billiard room, then neither Nao nor him can steal the deck since the tablet only works via owner fingerprint.

P16: Harimoto will say the other three players can try to steal his deck.

P17: Baldy and Muscles, the two deckless players in question, have 300 coins.

P18: The wealthiest of the three players, Harimoto accused, has 230 coins.

C5: If Baldy and Muscles bid 231 coins, they can secure their cards without others interruptions.

C6: After debunking Harimoto, he will have no other choice but to accept since he is ethically obligated to help them in front of his followers.

P19: Akiyama and Harimoto will discard their weakest cards.

P20: Harimoto will acknowledge the possible hand Akiyama will discard the five of clubs, three of spades, Q and four of hearts, and eight of clubs.

C7: If Harimoto adds Akiyama's three of spades to his hand, he will get a straight flush and steal first place.

C8: Based on P13, Akiyama needs to create a situation where he forces Harimoto to steal his lot with the excuse of being betrayed, which will cause a negative reaction from him, making him state he and his team will no longer help anyone in the game. In the long run, this means Akiyama will win cooperation for his majority rule plan.

P21: Akiyama will tell Harimoto he will discard first. This will make Harimoto suspicious and rather say he will go first. This way, he can steal Akiyama's deck at the end.

P22: After both Akiyama and Harimoto discard, Akiyama has to go immediately to the billiard room.

P23: Baldy and Muscles will have to decide which lot they'll bid on.

P24: Akiyama knows both Baldy and Muscles, especially Baldy since he knows he is somewhat cunning.

C9: Baldy will most likely say he wants Harimoto's lot since it is slightly better than Akiyama's. And knowing Muscles's chill personality, he won't oppose. Leaving Baldy as the bidder for Harimoto's lot and Muscles as Akiyama's lot bidder.

P25: Akiyama needs to create distrust in this operation. This way, Harimoto steals his deck from Muscles with a valid excuse that doesn't expose him to his followers.

C10: Akiyama will approach Baldy before going to the billiard room and tell him to bid two extra coins.

C11: Once Baldy gets the lot with two extra coins, Harimoto can use this as the perfect excuse to steal Akiyama's lot since it means Baldy did not trust them to begin with.

P26: Muscles will notice the two extra coins in Baldy's offer.

C12: He will get nervous thinking Baldy's two extra coins meant an act of anticipation for a deck steal. Thus, he will bid all his 300 coins to secure Akiyama's lot.

P27: Harimoto's team will anticipate Muscles's all-in action. The only one in Harimoto's group who can surpass Muscles's bid is Mikamoto, who owns 322 coins.

C13: Mikamoto will bid 3001 coins for Akiyama's lot, stealing it from Muscles. Thus, Akiyama will end up with 301 extra coins, which he will use as the foundation for his majority rule plan.

Akiyama also reasons what the enemy will do after stealing his lot to achieve top positions.

P28: The enemy will work knowing Akiyama's coins are 596.

P29: Harimoto will discard his K of clubs in order to increase his coins by selling it.

P30: Once he confirms he discarded the card successfully, Mikamoto will discard the three of spades with the goal that Harimoto gets it.

P31: Since Harimoto discarded first and verified earlier than Mikamoto, lot A will contain his K of clubs.

P32: Since Mikamoto discarded after Harimoto verified, lot B will contain her three of spades.

P33: Abe will bid all her 299 coins for lot A since the K of clubs will upgrade her hand while giving enough coins to Harimoto to dry out Akiyama in case of a long-term battle.

P34: It makes no sense for Akiyama to bid here to prevent Abe from getting the card since he will ultimately give 300 coins to Harimoto.

P35: Harimoto with now 532 coins thanks to Abe bids for Mikamoto's three of spades.

C14: Harimoto, thanks to the three of spades, upgrades from flush to straight flush, taking first place.

C15: However, considering Akiyama's 596 coins, he still can outbid Harimoto with 533 coins and steal the card to keep his top position. If Akiyama gets the three of spades, it doesn't improve his hand, but it allows him to keep first position, which means this operation is not flawless since in their point of view, it's all dependent if Akiyama acts or not. However, considering their decks, there's a contingency they can apply in case Akiyama steals the three of spades.

Option A, if Akiyama bids 533 coins,

P36: Akiyama will have 63 coins left.

P37: Mikamoto gets 533 coins from Akiyama, adding money to the capital of the enemy team.

P38: Abe among her deck has an eight of spades, and Mikamoto has a six of spades, too.

P39: If Harimoto later adds these cards to his deck, he will be able to create a straight flush as well. This is a backup plan.

C16: Harimoto can still make a royal flush without the three of spades, and Akiyama won't be able to outbid him this time.

Option B, if Akiyama doesn't bid.

P40: Harimoto gets lot B, making his deck a straight flush and therefore achieving first place.

P41: Mikamoto gets the coins, so his team is not losing their capital, just moving it.

C17: No matter what action Akiyama does, Harimoto will get a straight flush in both cases.

C18: Harimoto's group will execute these two plans as main and contingency since by doing this, they will achieve first place. Based on C13, here after P42, Muscles will end up as a pig.

P43: If Akiyama can get to work with Muscles, orchestrating an act where Muscles will act disappointed in Akiyama for not doing anything when Harimoto executes the three of spades plan, Harimoto's team will be sure he's no longer working with Akiyama.

P44: Muscles will go and search for Kimura, begging her to give him a deck while offering her valuable information on the movements of the other players.

P45: Any normal person will distrust Muscles's approach. However, Akiyama knows Kimura's quick analytical mind won't see any danger in this since working with Muscles can actually benefit her team.

P46: To achieve Kimura integrating Muscles into the group, Akiyama will tell Muscles all the information he provides to Kimura must be undeniably true.

P47: Kimura will see with good eyes the idea of using Muscles. Also because she has a secret plan with him. It is stated Akiyama could effortlessly predict any strategy Kimura could come up with, which means he also knew Kimura's strategies in order to make out the most pigs.

P48: With Muscles's help, Kimura can use him to disrupt player trades so that neither of them could get ranked, increasing their cash in the long run.

P49: Kimura will manipulate all of them into thinking someone else might discard so they don't have to. This in order to secure they end up as pigs.

P50: Kimura will notice her jack can level up Tananaka's deck, which will result in Kimura extorting as many coins as possible from him.

P51: Kimura can trick Kawai by making Mikamoto discard her four worst cards, queen and four of hearts, two of diamonds, and 10 of spades. Muscles will buy this lot for 290 coins.

P52: Abe has a four of clubs that will make Muscles hand sufficient.

P53: Muscles with 10 coins left will bid all of this on Abe's card. However, Kimura, counting with Tananaka's coins, can easily steal the card from Muscles.

C19: Kimura will agree to work with Muscles as a spy since the information he brings is legit, and he will help Kimura in disrupting players trading, turning most of them into pigs. In the end, the group can steal most of Muscles's coins to finally turn him into a pig and making him owe them 110 million yen. With this masterful prediction on the enemy's strategy, Akiyama is certain Kimura will use Muscles as her spy.

P54: Based on C8 where Harimoto stated he will no longer cooperate with anyone else and the fact that they were the ones who stole Muscles's deck. Muscles won't betray Akiyama during the time he is with Kimura.

P55: The last section of the six-card discard from the group will occur in the last round of the game to exploit the anxiety from Kawai and Tananaka and secure the plan success.

P56: After the players have been boycotted by Muscles in Kimura, they will get anxious since they are losing the game.

P57: Akiyama will reach them to offer a solution where he states that they work with him and help him secure first place. He will pay the debts of everyone. Akiyama foresees the deck he can build up using the cards of the players to steal first place.

P58: Tananaka has a five of diamonds.

P59: Saeki has a three and a six of diamonds.

P60: Akiyama with 596 coins can be interrupted by Harimoto's group, boycotting the purchase of these two lots since they have enough coins to secure their first place.

C20: If Akiyama discards a useless card as lot A and gets tons of coins from it, the group will no longer be able to interrupt his purchase of the two lots.

C21: If Akiyama discards his A of diamonds and then Tananaka and Psyche discard their cards and then Tananaka who is the wealthiest player bids all his 332 coins, Akiyama will have 928 coins which is enough to buy the two lots without any interruption from the enemy making him able to secure first place and saving all the players. Akiyama predicted and formulated all of this immediately by the moment he agreed to the deck discarding pact since that early stage of the game. He knew this path would lead to his victory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8weGLntV6U&t=4080s (unrelated musical chairs relevant debunk debunk)

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntelligenceScaling/comments/1lf0vf6/debunk_of_the_terrible_debunk_of_musical_chairs/

considered making a post since no other media, aside from Cridemord’s video, actually breaks down the feat into Premises & Conclusions, allowing for a clearer / more accessible full extent understanding of how insane Akiyama’s reasoning / foresight abilities really are (alongside other cats such as FRI / formulation speed, scheming integration / misdirection). Notice how absurd the number of P & C Akiyama had to reason out is.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8weGLntV6U&t=7710s

During Bid Poker, Akiyama first reasons about the foundation of the game and what its optimal strategy actually is. He also reasons about how the enemy will approach the game according to the prize rules.

P1: Bid Poker is a game of trading where the main idea is purchasing cards that work well together for a cheap price in order to strengthen your hand and achieve a good position.

P2: The ideal scenario when selling a card is to discard a useless card and obtain resources that can later be used to buy a better one, so the goal is to make as much profit as possible when selling your own cards.

C1: With this in mind, the surface of Bid Poker seems like a buy-low-and-sell-high system.

C2: While this seems like the game's nature, Akiyama recognizes that this fails in practice because bidding few coins for a card means someone else can easily outbid your offer, which makes getting cards for a cheap price impossible. Likewise, discarding a card does not automatically mean that the card will be sold for a high price.

P3: Akiyama thinks of a scenario where four players, each with 200 coins and cards that work for the others, team up, rotating their full resources and cards unconditionally, leading to 800 coins in total disposition. With this, they prevent third parties from interfering with their trades by consecutively moving coins and cards between themselves, allowing them to secure victory.

C3: Bid Poker, instead of being a classic bidding system, is in reality a majority-rule system. Since this strategy of rotation will secure victory for its participants rather than those who play with the mindset of buy low, sell high, players who cannot make a deck will be eliminated and known as pigs.

P5: First place will get a 100-million reward per pig.

P6: Second place will get a 40-million reward per pig.

P7: Third place will get a 10-million reward per pig.

C4: The more pigs there are, the bigger the prize for the top three players.

P8: Harimoto will aim to get first place since he is the leader of the cult.

P9: The other members of the group will try to place second and third.

P10: Considering C4, they will try to increase the number of pigs to make more money.

Contextual transition

At this point, Bid Poker has developed to the point where Akiyama and Harimoto each have one additional deck while two players remain cardless. Akiyama knows that the majority-rule strategy can secure his victory. However, when Nao asks them to discard their extra decks to give them to the deckless players, Akiyama quickly reasons through the repercussions of doing so.

From this point onward, the following Premises and Conclusions describe Akiyama's predictions, foreseeing a scenario in which Harimoto and Akiyama discard their extra cards and how the game will subsequently develop.

P11: Based on C4, Harimoto won't accept this deal since it's not good for him if two players get a deck.

P12: Even if Harimoto accepts and keeps his word, the deckless players can at best qualify for the next round, being unable to repay all their debts, just like the other players.

P13: Considering C4, the most convenient strategy for Akiyama, based on his NPL plan, is to achieve first place while making tons of money either through pigs or coins. This way, plus Nao's coins at his disposal, he will be able to pay every player's debt.

P14: Harimoto will appeal to distrust toward Akiyama rather than revealing his true intentions of making them lose because his followers consider him a saint.

P15: If Akiyama agrees and exchanges tablets with Nao while Nao goes to the billiard room, then neither Nao nor Akiyama can steal the deck since the tablet only works via the owner's fingerprint.

P16: Harimoto will say that the other three players can try to steal his deck.

P17: Baldy and Muscles, the two deckless players in question, have 300 coins.

P18: The wealthiest of the three players Harimoto accused has 230 coins.

C5: If Baldy and Muscles bid 231 coins, they can secure their cards without interruption from the others.

C6: After debunking Harimoto, he will have no other choice but to accept since he is ethically obligated to help them in front of his followers.

P19: Akiyama and Harimoto will discard their weakest cards.

P20: Harimoto will recognize the possible hand Akiyama will discard: the five of clubs, three of spades, Q and four of hearts, and eight of clubs.

C7: If Harimoto adds Akiyama's three of spades to his hand, he will get a straight flush and steal first place.

C8: Based on P13, Akiyama needs to create a situation where he forces Harimoto to steal his lot under the excuse of having been betrayed. This will cause a negative reaction from Harimoto, making him state that he and his team will no longer help anyone in the game. In the long run, this means Akiyama will gain cooperation for his majority-rule plan.

P21: Akiyama will tell Harimoto he will discard first. This will make Harimoto suspicious and cause him to instead say that he will go first. This way, he can steal Akiyama's deck at the end.

P22: After both Akiyama and Harimoto discard, Akiyama has to go immediately to the billiard room.

P23: Baldy and Muscles will have to decide which lot they will bid on.

P24: Akiyama knows both Baldy and Muscles, especially Baldy, since he knows Baldy is somewhat cunning.

C9: Baldy will most likely say he wants Harimoto's lot since it is slightly better than Akiyama's. Knowing Muscles's chill personality, he won't oppose. This leaves Baldy as the bidder for Harimoto's lot and Muscles as the bidder for Akiyama's lot.

P25: Akiyama needs to create distrust in this operation. This way, Harimoto steals his deck from Muscles with a valid excuse that does not expose him to his followers.

C10: Akiyama will approach Baldy before going to the billiard room and tell him to bid two extra coins.

C11: Once Baldy gets the lot with two extra coins, Harimoto can use this as the perfect excuse to steal Akiyama's lot since it means Baldy did not trust them to begin with.

P26: Muscles will notice the two extra coins in Baldy's offer.

C12: He will get nervous, thinking Baldy's two extra coins meant an act of anticipation for a deck steal. Thus, he will bid all his 300 coins to secure Akiyama's lot.

P27: Harimoto's team will anticipate Muscles's all-in action. The only one in Harimoto's group who can surpass Muscles's bid is Mikamoto, who owns 322 coins.

C13: Mikamoto will bid 3001 coins for Akiyama's lot, stealing it from Muscles. Thus, Akiyama will end up with 301 extra coins, which he will use as the foundation for his majority-rule plan.

Contextual transition

Akiyama reasons what the enemy will do after stealing his lot in order to achieve the top positions.

P28: The enemy will work knowing Akiyama's coins are 596.

P29: Harimoto will discard his K of clubs in order to increase his coins by selling it.

P30: Once he confirms that he discarded the card successfully, Mikamoto will discard the three of spades with the goal of Harimoto getting it.

P31: Since Harimoto discarded first and verified earlier than Mikamoto, Lot A will contain his K of clubs.

P32: Since Mikamoto discarded after Harimoto verified, Lot B will contain her three of spades.

P33: Abe will bid all her 299 coins for Lot A since the K of clubs will upgrade her hand while giving enough coins to Harimoto to dry out Akiyama in case of a long-term battle.

P34: It makes no sense for Akiyama to bid here to prevent Abe from getting the card since he will ultimately give 300 coins to Harimoto.

P35: Harimoto, with now 532 coins thanks to Abe, bids for Mikamoto's three of spades.

C14: Harimoto, thanks to the three of spades, upgrades from a flush to a straight flush, taking first place.

C15: Considering Akiyama's 596 coins, he can still outbid Harimoto with 533 coins and steal the card to keep his top position. If Akiyama gets the three of spades, it does not improve his hand, but it allows him to keep first place.

Contingency

The enemy's operation therefore depends on whether Akiyama chooses to act. However, considering their decks, they have a contingency in case Akiyama steals the three of spades.

Option A — Akiyama bids 533 coins

P36: Akiyama will have 63 coins left.

P37: Mikamoto gets 533 coins from Akiyama, adding money to the capital of the enemy team.

P38: Abe has an eight of spades in her deck, and Mikamoto has a six of spades as well.

P39: If Harimoto later adds these cards to his deck, he will be able to create a straight flush as well. This is a backup plan.

C16: Harimoto can still make a royal flush without the three of spades, and Akiyama won't be able to outbid him this time.

Option B — Akiyama does not bid

P40: Harimoto gets Lot B, making his deck a straight flush and therefore achieving first place.

P41: Mikamoto gets the coins, so his team is not losing its capital, only moving it.

C17: No matter what action Akiyama takes, Harimoto will get a straight flush in both cases.

C18: Harimoto's group will execute these two plans as the main plan and contingency since, by doing this, they will achieve first place.

Contextual transition

Based on C13, Muscles will subsequently end up as a pig.

P43: If Akiyama can get to work with Muscles, orchestrating an act where Muscles will act disappointed in Akiyama for doing nothing when Harimoto executes the three-of-spades plan, Harimoto's team will be sure he is no longer working with Akiyama.

P44: Muscles will go and search for Kimura, begging her to give him a deck while offering her valuable information on the movements of the other players.

P45: Any normal person will distrust Muscles's approach. However, Akiyama knows Kimura's quick analytical mind won't see any danger in this since working with Muscles can actually benefit her team.

P46: To achieve Kimura integrating Muscles into the group, Akiyama will tell Muscles that all the information he provides to Kimura must be undeniably true.

P47: Kimura will look favorably upon the idea of using Muscles.

Canon/contextual insight

Kimura also has a secret plan involving Muscles. Additionally, it is established that Akiyama can effortlessly predict any strategy Kimura could come up with, meaning he can anticipate how she will use Muscles in order to maximize the number of pigs.

P48: With Muscles's help, Kimura can use him to disrupt player trades so that neither of them can get ranked, increasing their cash in the long run.

P49: Kimura will manipulate all of them into thinking someone else might discard so they don't have to, in order to secure that they end up as pigs.

P50: Kimura will notice that her jack can level up Taninaka's deck, which will result in Kimura extorting as many coins as possible from him.

P51: Kimura can trick Kawai by making Mikamoto discard her four worst cards: queen and four of hearts, two of diamonds, and ten of spades. Muscles will buy this lot for 290 coins.

P52: Abe has a four of clubs that will make Muscles's hand sufficient.

P53: Muscles, with 10 coins left, will bid all of this on Abe's card. However, Kimura, counting on Taninaka's coins, can easily steal the card from Muscles.

C19: Kimura will agree to work with Muscles as a spy since the information he brings is legitimate, and he will help Kimura disrupt player trading, turning most of them into pigs. In the end, the group can steal most of Muscles's coins, finally turning him into a pig and making him owe them 110 million yen.

P54: Based on C8, where Harimoto stated that he will no longer cooperate with anyone else, and the fact that Harimoto's group were the ones who stole Muscles's deck, Muscles won't betray Akiyama during the time he is with Kimura.

P55: The last section of the six-card discard from the group will occur in the last round of the game to exploit the anxiety of Kawai and Taninaka and secure the plan's success.

P56: After the players have been boycotted by Muscles while working with Kimura, they will become anxious since they are losing the game.

P57: Akiyama will approach them to offer a solution in which they work with him and help him secure first place. He will pay the debts of everyone.

Contextual insight

Akiyama foresees the deck he can build using the players' cards in order to steal first place.

P58: Taninaka has a five of diamonds.

P59: Saeki has a three and a six of diamonds.

P60: Akiyama, with 596 coins, can be interrupted by Harimoto's group, which can boycott the purchase of these two lots since they have enough coins to secure their first place.

C20: If Akiyama discards a useless card as Lot A and gets tons of coins from it, the group will no longer be able to interrupt his purchase of the two lots.

C21: If Akiyama discards his A of diamonds, and then Taninaka and Psyche discard their cards, after which Taninaka, who is the wealthiest player, bids all his 332 coins, Akiyama will have 928 coins, which is enough to buy the two lots without any interruption from the enemy, allowing him to secure first place and save all the players.

Canon statement/insight

Akiyama had already predicted and formulated this entire sequence by the moment he agreed to the deck-discarding pact. From that early stage of the game, he knew that this path would lead to his victory.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P8weGLntV6U&t=4080s (unrelated musical chairs relevant debunk debunk)

https://www.reddit.com/r/IntelligenceScaling/comments/1lf0vf6/debunk_of_the_terrible_debunk_of_musical_chairs/