r/liargame

YOU SHALL NEVER CHANGE MY MIND ABOUT THIS!!!!!!!

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(-repost post removal, archiving)

In the first hour they were given, Yokoya had already realized the real smuggling strategy, but he couldn't have executed it right then because the rotation was unpredictable: no one knew when southern country would end up changing rotations, so if you convince one person you don't know when their next turn would come and whether they are still on your side by that time. In the initial rotation of the southern country, you will see the same player after 8 whole turns. Who knows what would happen in those turns and if you'd even be able to find the traitors successfully and your plan won't be affected by the changing of rotations.

Yokoya solved this problem by making their rotations systematic through his clairvoyance tactic. Looking at Yokoya, do you really think that he wouldn't have considered the possibility of clairvoyance failing if the southern country became too scared to carry anything?

Here is what happened which caused clairvoyance failure:

Yokoya pretends to be clairvoyant

Southern country gets scared of carrying money

Kikuzawa claims he can stop their smuggling attempts and earn money

South stops carrying anything

Yokoya stops making profit

Yokoya stops giving Kikuzawa signal

Kikuzawa acts suspicious

Akiyama sees through Yokoya and Kikuzawa

Akiyama removes Kikuzawa from the rotation as punishment

What if I tell you that all of this happening was within Yokoya's prediction from the moment he first talked to Kikuzawa? What if I tell you that this is exactly what Yokoya wanted?

Now why would Yokoya want this? Simply because he wanted to change the southern country rotation from one person going at a time to 1 person going twice in a row because this is the most likely rotation after Kikuzawa's removal. They couldn't have kept using their previous rotation because there would be a problem: if you remove one person from the OG rotation, you'd realize that now a person can only go either as an inspector or a smuggler but not both, which is why they were sending one person twice in a row.

Rotation Analysis

We know that Kikuzawa monopolized the Inspector rounds due to his “clairvoyance” so it’s natural to know that the Southern Country would be attempting to exclude him from this post once his connection to Yokoya was discovered.

Before Kikuzawa was found, the player’s rounds were like this:

Smuggler : Player 1

Inspector : Kikuzawa

Smuggler : Player 2

Inspector : Kikuzawa

Now, since Kikuzawa was found and excluded, there are spots available for the Inspector rounds which leads the Southern Country to logically do this:

Smuggler : Player 1

Inspector : Player 1

Smuggler : Player 2

Inspector : Player 2

You might be asking yourself, why did the Southern Country choose this order?

Well, let’s think this through: what happens once Kikuzawa is exposed? Naturally, he should be punished. And in this game, the obvious penalty would be to make him skip a few turns according to Fukunaga’s strategy, right? That would both punish him and help offset the damage done to the victims.

But here’s the problem. If Kikuzawa’s turns are skipped, the total number of active turns drops from nine to eight since each team has 9 members. In other words, the lineup now has an even number of moves. Do you see where this is going? With an even count, if Kikuzawa is forced to miss—say, two turns—the sequence of roles for everyone else doesn’t shift. That means each player keeps the same job round after round.

For example, if Glasses is currently a Smuggler, he’ll stay a Smuggler every time. Imagine the order: Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler – Inspector – Smuggler. If Kikuzawa keeps missing, and the rest continue in this same pattern—one at a time, no double turns—the roles remain locked. And that’s a disaster in a smuggling game. Why? Because everyone needs to be a Smuggler at some point to earn money. That’s the most effective way to win.

So if Akiyama’s group simply skipped a few of Kikuzawa’s turns without changing the system, the four players stuck as Inspectors would be in a hopeless position. The southern country would have no choice but to come up with a workaround. Their options?

Don’t punish Kikuzawa at all.

Give one teammate a huge advantage (unlikely, given Nao’s nature and everyone else’s greed).

Or allow players to take two turns in a row to break the cycle.

Because here’s the crux: With an odd number of players, the rotation naturally lets everyone become a Smuggler over time. But with an even number, the roles “freeze,” locking players in place—unless someone acts to disrupt the order. Now the players in Akiyama’s team have to be Inspector and Smuggler in succession.

All of this was manipulated by Yokoya himself, he engineered that Kikuzawa would monopolize the Inspector rounds and when found, Akiyama’s team ordered play which would mean that the players would be Smuggler-inspector in succession. Why did Yokoya pull this logical manipulation? He did it in order to wait for the moment where Southern country pulls this order so that he can execute the real smuggling strategy when it will be the turn of the greediest players who are Tsunoda, Eda and Kitamura (while playing the clairvoyant Inspector, Yokoya took time to observe nearly all the Southern players and inferred that he can use those three for the real smuggling strategy).

This is what Yokoya wanted from the beginning simply because now all the money they give to the traitors can be submitted back to the northern ATM asap. Furthermore, Yokoya even misdirects Akiyama from his actual strat. How? Think about what the best way of winning contraband is, it's to lose in the outside account while smuggling more. The clairvoyance tactic was achieving exactly that—southern country were too afraid to smuggle anything, but they were winning through inspections. Yokoya actually conditioned Akiyama and his team to become afraid to smuggle anything which in turn backfires for them. Yokoya knew the moment Akiyama realizes the true nature of contraband he'd think this is what Yokoya was aiming for. But in truth Yokoya wanted clairvoyance to fail so that he'd be able to change their rotation from the very beginning.

Now for the cherry on top, Yokoya came up with everything I said so far right when he saw Akiyama perform the bundle trick, why? Because that's when he knew Akiyama would be smart enough to see through clairvoyance tactic. In short: everything so far in contraband was planned by Yokoya literally everything even clairvoyance failure.

Additional Insights

Another way Yokoya took advantage of the clairvoyance failure was that he anticipated that Kikuzawa would eventually be found out by Akiyama and spill the beans to everyone on the southern country team about Yokoya's past history in school and how he ruled through fear. This led to the revelation of Yokoya's school backstory and allowing southern country to deduce that northern country was likely ruled through fear. Building on this, Yokoya instructed his players to act as if they genuinely disliked him, knowing this would trick sourthern country into believing that at least some of his teammates wanted to betray his dictatorship. Because their fabricated stories perfectly matched Akiyama’s assumptions, it made it easier for the three suckers to believe that northern country members were terrified of Yokoya, causing them to lower their guard and fall into the trap of depositing money into the ATMs, which basically seals the game.

Yokoya actually improved the method for using the real smuggling strategy: unlike Akiyama, who was going to be truthful about this strategy to the traitor and also pay him money for the job at the end of the game, in Yokoya's method they were actually deceived.

Sequence of events:

Mid-Day 1, Yokoya got countered, Kikuzawa confesses and Nao comes up with settlement.

Fukunaga Inspects and Smuggles, succeeds.

Tsunoda (spiky hair) Inspects and Smuggles, got tricked into depositing 300 million.

Eda (chubby) Inspects and Smuggles, got tricked into depositing 300 million.

Akiyama Inspects, Day 1 ends, Akiyama explains "low ATM is good".

Day 2 begins, Akiyama Smuggles while experimenting with ATM cards.

Nao Inspects and Smuggles, chattering for prospective Northern collaborators.

Akiyama explains his strategy, while Kitamura (glasses) goes to Inspect and didn't hear his plan.

Tsunoda and Eda are questioned by Nao and Fukunaga, while Kitamura Smuggles and got tricked into depositing 1.31.

Yokoya is genuinely insane :

Yokoya and Kiku used the exact same smuggling strategy but explained it differently to hide the fact that they were secretly working together.

After learning about Yokoya's dictatorial style through Kiku's confessions and Nao's conversation with Yokoya, Akiyama proposed a situation where northern team's members likely felt some sort of resentment towards Yokoya, unbeknownst to him that Yokoya had anticipated him forming this exact line of reasoning.

Because Yokoya carried out his strategy before Akiyama even started explaining his own winning strategy, Tsunoda and Eda had no way of knowing why taking the money was a mistake. Since Akiyama's deduction perfectly aligned with what the supposed traitors were saying, they fell for the trick completely. Yokoya also understood that both of them and Kitamura were desperate for money but were too scared to smuggle, which explains why they were so willing to take the cash.

This means that Yokoya not only foresaw everything that happened, but also put the real smuggling strategy into action before Akiyama could even begin explaining it to his team. Crazy.

Yokoya truly massively outplayed Akiyama the first day.

https://www.reddit.com/r/liargame/comments/1uvherl/liar_game_episode_15_discussionreaction/

s/o u/Alert-Researcher7788 and u/BubblyCrash

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-g_fxdQvzQc

s/o imdragony6621, rebonn6, Humorunravelled, david90906 and Infilama

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1e5UQ2TC5Pb5UCjgl_OLMG63u-uYfRhLgHwCpSle0zkM/edit?tab=t.0 s/o u/Melodic_Ad1005(author), Wanoxx and Andriku(mentioned contributors)

I still find it strange that they changed his physique but hey, I ain’t complaining 🤷‍♀️

I have often wondered on how strong he is and how well he will do in death games. From what we know it is clear that he is fit enough to do manual labour and the only instance of him “fighting” was when he grabbed the collar of two dudes who were harassing Nao in the beginning.

I’ll happily take any crumbs atp.

(This is Kaitani responding to a fan asking about a continuation until the last volume.)

This frame cracks me up every time I see it idk why

Hello and welcome to another Liar Game Monday!

Just this once I'll take over the duty of posting the discussion thread since my fellow mod L is busy. Please bear with me since I do not have his skill for this kind of post <3

This episode adapted chapters 58, 59, and 60 of the manga down to the letter, and what an episode it was!

Not only did we get the final conclusion of the very tense Contraband Game, but we also got the start of the second revival round. Nao, Akiyama, and Fukunaga team up against three other players in individual matches. First up will be Fukunaga, who will play a game of 24 Shot Russian Roulette!

I have been anticipating this specific episode ever since the anime was announced. We finally get some raw emotion from Akiyama, and you can tell the bond he and Nao share has grown much stronger since the start of Contraband. We also see that Nao has grown stronger, challenging Yokoya head on, and even bluffing to manipulate him to continue the Liar Game and make sure they will face off against him again.

The fact that this isn't even Nao's final form is so exciting! She's already come so far, and so has Akiyama for that matter. Nao touched on it in the episode, but he truly lost his ability to trust people with everything surrounding his mother's death, and the one person who can make him trust again seems to be Nao.

Last but not least, the queen Fukunaga is back in her best outfit yet, and we'll see her take the spot light next week!

We look forward to seeing you all here again for the next Liar Game Monday~

Nao and fukunaga both got such a nice fashion for this next game which is going to take weeks and weeks to finish and i wanted to see them in the next clothes they are gonna wear. And my bro aki got this!????

...I made Yokoya way too pretty

Edit: I now know I accidentally used Nao's card. For my mental health's sake let's pretend that this is on purpose☝️