u/Ok-Analysis2975

I’m a big believer in Bitcoin long term and have been DCAing since the second half of this year. The problem is, I realized I never really had a structured plan for price levels. I’ve mostly just been buying periodically, and now that I have roughly $80K of my remaining savings that I want to eventually deploy, I’m trying to be a lot more disciplined rather than just guessing.

For MSTR, my rough downside target right now is around $75/share. But I also realize that could be completely arbitrary, and MSTR may never get there. I don't want to make the classic mistake of sitting on cash waiting for a price that never comes.

A few things I’ve been thinking about:

BTC drawdowns: Historically, BTC has had some absolutely brutal peak to trough drawdowns (we all know about this). We’re already in a significant drawdown this cycle, but I’m wondering whether we eventually get another major leg down or whether the diminishing drawdown trend continues.

The 4-year cycle: If the historical cycle framework still has some validity, timing obviously matters. Previous cycle tops and bottoms have happened on somewhat consistent timelines, although the sample size is tiny and the market structure is completely different now with ETFs, institutions, derivatives, etc.

BTC vs. MSTR: This is probably the part I’m most interested in. MSTR obviously isn't just “BTC with leverage.” You have mNAV/premium or discount, dilution, capital raises, preferred securities, debt, BTC yield, and Saylor's ability to keep raising capital and buying BTC. So even if you have a BTC price target, that doesn't necessarily tell you where MSTR should bottom.

mNAV: For people who have followed MSTR closely, do you think it makes more sense to think in terms of mNAV/valuation bands rather than arbitrary share prices? For example, is there a particular mNAV level where you would become extremely interested regardless of where the actual share price is?

Volatility: If BTC drops another 20–30%, MSTR could obviously fall substantially more. But the opposite is also true. If BTC establishes a bottom and starts recovering, waiting for the absolute MSTR bottom could mean missing a pretty significant move.

That’s why I’m increasingly thinking the right approach might be a combination of BTC drawdown + MSTR valuation/mNAV + cycle timing, rather than trying to predict the exact bottom.

So, if you had $80K to deploy and genuinely believed in BTC for the next 5,10+ years, what would you do?

A) Keep waiting for something like $75 MSTR and deploy most/all of it there
B) Start scaling in now and reserve larger amounts for lower levels
C) Base entries primarily on BTC levels rather than MSTR price
D) Use mNAV/valuation bands instead of fixed MSTR prices
E) Something completely different?

For example, would you do something like 20% / 20% / 30% / 30% at progressively lower levels, or would you be much more aggressive around what you believe is the cycle bottom?

I’m not looking for someone to tell me what price MSTR will bottom at as Nobody knows that. I’m much more interested in the framework people who have been through multiple cycles actually use to decide where and when they buy.

If you think my $75 target is unrealistic, too optimistic, or simply the wrong way to think about MSTR, I’d genuinely appreciate the pushback.

And especially for people who lived through the 2022 MSTR/BTC drawdown: what did you think the bottom was going to be at the time, and what would you do differently today?

I’m basically trying to build an actual plan for the $80K instead of letting fear/FOMO dictate when I deploy it.

https://preview.redd.it/9frn87q2hahh1.png?width=2270&format=png&auto=webp&s=435da17b11cf4d2527982cfd28aa50400570af35

I'm pretty new to technical analysis, so I wanted to get some opinions from people who've been following AMPX longer than I have. Looking at the chart, it seems like the stock is currently below the 200-day moving average. The last time it fell below the 200-day, it stayed under it for quite a while before reclaiming it.
Based on the current setup, how likely do you think it is that AMPX breaks back above the 200-day MA in the short term? Is this looking more like a typical pullback before continuing higher, or the start of a longer period below the 200-day again?
I'd love to hear how more experienced investors or traders are reading this chart. Thanks!

My partner and I are planning our wedding in South Goa in late 2027 and are looking for an experienced wedding planner who has worked with NRI couples and/or interracial marriages. We want someone who truly understands the nuances like cultural sensitivities, coordinating with guests flying in from the US, blending traditions, the works, can speak english.

Event Overview:

- Total guests: ~150 people (American guest 30-35 requiring a 2-night pre wedding stay)

- Main wedding: 3 days / 2 nights for all 150 guests (total 5)

- Accommodation needed: ~50 - 70 rooms (less for first 2 nights, not looking for a full buyout)

- Location preference: South Goa — must have direct beach access and be a 5-star property

- Budget: ~1 cr (all-in open to a breakdown discussion)

What we're looking for in a planner:

Prior experience with NRI / interracial weddings (this is non-negotiable for us)

End-to-end planning — venue, decor, catering, vendor coordination, guest logistics, the whole shebang

Comfortable coordinating travel and accommodation for international guests

Strong relationships with 5-star South Goa properties

Transparent pricing, no surprise costs

A couple of questions for the community too:

1. When should we start booking like reserving resort spot?

2. Any planners or agencies you'd personally recommend based on experience?

3. Any South Goa 5-star properties with ~50 rooms you'd suggest that have strong wedding packages?

Would love referrals, reviews, or anyone who's done something similar. Thanks in advance 🙏

Hi all,

I’m looking for advice on how to handle a new job while my STEM OPT is ending soon and my c(9) EAD is still pending.

Background:

• Married to a U.S. citizen
• Filed I-130 + I-485 + I-765 (c9) on January 30, 2026
• Biometrics done on February 9, 2026
• No updates on I-485 or I-765 since biometrics
• Currently on STEM OPT expiring June 14, 2026

I submitted an expedite request for my I-765 on April 14, 2026. On April 15, my congressman submitted an inquiry to USCIS. Today (April 30), I also reached out to my senator for help.
The recruiter just sent the formal offer letter which I already signed and the start date is May 11th (upcoming Monday).

My dilemma
I can start working on May 11 and work until June 14 on my STEM OPT. After that, I cannot work legally until my c9 EAD (or green card) is approved. My c9 EAD could arrive by then or it might not.

I did not lie as I don't need future sponsorship. But I didn't proactively bring up the expiration date either. The employer hasn't asked about it yet. I haven't completed I-9 (that happens on/around start date). I would present my valid STEM OPT EAD, which is unexpired. I signed up for everify+ since they use it and filed out all the info there already.

What I'm considering

• present my valid STEM OPT EAD for I-9 (15 min meeting already got set up on the 1st day of work for i-9 verification)
• If HR asks about the June 14 expiration date, which she would, I'll calmly explain my pending c9 EAD and expedite request.
• If nothing is said, then around June 1 (2 weeks before expiration), I'll approach my manager and HR proactively, explain the situation, and offer to take unpaid leave until the new EAD arrives or simply ask for termination.

What I'm worried about

• Will employers actually fire someone for this or are they usually okay with termination and re-hiring someone. God knows how long i-765 approval take.
• Has anyone been through something similar while starting a new job on OPT with a pending AOS EAD? How did the employer react?
• Any other legal/tactical advice for minimizing the chance of getting terminated?

PS: I was terminated April 13th so currently unemployed. Been applying to jobs for 2.5 months and interviewed at more than 25 companies to land an offer. I applied to over 1,500 roles to land this one offer lol, so letting it slip away would sting hard. It's a high-paying remote Data Engineer II role. As much as I'd love a clean "delay to July" option, the reality is I can't afford to push it that far and risk them moving on entirely. So I'm leaning into the high-risk, high-reward approach. If I get terminated because they feel I was deceitful, then that's the outcome and I'll live with it but I think telling them before I've even started, when they've invested nothing in me yet, is the riskier move

Hi all,

I’m looking for advice on how to handle a new job offer while my STEM OPT is ending soon and my c(9) EAD is still pending.

Background:

• Married to a U.S. citizen
• Filed I-130 + I-485 + I-765 (c9) on January 30, 2026
• Biometrics done on February 9, 2026
• No updates on I-485 or I-765 since biometrics
• Currently on STEM OPT expiring June 14, 2026

I submitted an expedite request for my I-765 on April 14, 2026. On April 15, my congressman submitted an inquiry to USCIS. Today (April 30), I also reached out to my senator for help.
The recruiter just sent the formal offer letter which I already signed and the proposed start date is May 11th.

My dilemma
I can start working on May 11 and work until June 14 on my STEM OPT. After that, I cannot work legally until my c9 EAD (or green card) is approved. My c9 EAD could arrive by then or it might not.

I'm terrified of two things:

1. If I tell the employer now before my start date, they could rescind the offer.
2. If I stay quiet and start working, then in early June I have to tell them "hey, my EAD expires in 2 weeks, I might need unpaid leave," they could just fire me on the spot. I feel like I'd be seen as having hidden something.

I did not lie — I don't need future sponsorship. But I didn't proactively bring up the expiration date either. The employer hasn't asked about it yet. I haven't completed I-9 (that happens on/around start date). I would present my valid STEM OPT EAD, which is unexpired.

What I'm considering

• Stay silent, start on May 11, present my valid STEM OPT EAD for I-9.
• If HR asks about the June 14 expiration date, I'll calmly explain my pending c9 EAD and expedite request.
• If nothing is said, then around June 1 (2 weeks before expiration), I'll approach my manager and HR proactively, explain the situation, and offer to take unpaid leave until the new EAD arrives (which is legally allowed, I-485 pending keeps me in status).
• I'm hoping that by then I will have proven myself as an employee and they'd rather put me on a short unpaid leave than fire me and rehire.

What I'm worried about

• Will employers actually fire someone for this or are they usually okay with a short unpaid leave?
• Has anyone been through something similar while starting a new job on OPT with a pending AOS EAD? How did the employer react?
• Would it actually be smarter to disclose before the start date despite the risk?
• Any other legal/tactical advice for minimizing the chance of getting terminated?

Hi all,

I’m looking for advice on how to handle a new job offer while my STEM OPT is ending soon and my c(9) EAD is still pending.

Background:

• Married to a U.S. citizen
• Filed I-130 + I-485 + I-765 (c9) on January 30, 2026
• Biometrics done on February 9, 2026
• No updates on I-485 or I-765 since biometrics
• Currently on STEM OPT expiring June 14, 2026

I submitted an expedite request for my I-765 on April 14, 2026. On April 15, my congressman submitted an inquiry to USCIS. Today (April 30), I also reached out to my senator for help.
The recruiter just sent the formal offer letter which I already signed and the proposed start date is May 11th.

My dilemma
I can start working on May 11 and work until June 14 on my STEM OPT. After that, I cannot work legally until my c9 EAD (or green card) is approved. My c9 EAD could arrive by then or it might not.

I'm terrified of two things:

1. If I tell the employer now before my start date, they could rescind the offer.
2. If I stay quiet and start working, then in early June I have to tell them "hey, my EAD expires in 2 weeks, I might need unpaid leave," they could just fire me on the spot. I feel like I'd be seen as having hidden something.

I did not lie — I don't need future sponsorship. But I didn't proactively bring up the expiration date either. The employer hasn't asked about it yet. I haven't completed I-9 (that happens on/around start date). I would present my valid STEM OPT EAD, which is unexpired.

What I'm considering

• Stay silent, start on May 11, present my valid STEM OPT EAD for I-9.
• If HR asks about the June 14 expiration date, I'll calmly explain my pending c9 EAD and expedite request.
• If nothing is said, then around June 1 (2 weeks before expiration), I'll approach my manager and HR proactively, explain the situation, and offer to take unpaid leave until the new EAD arrives (which is legally allowed, I-485 pending keeps me in status).
• I'm hoping that by then I will have proven myself as an employee and they'd rather put me on a short unpaid leave than fire me and rehire.

What I'm worried about

• Will employers actually fire someone for this or are they usually okay with a short unpaid leave?
• Has anyone been through something similar while starting a new job on OPT with a pending AOS EAD? How did the employer react?
• Would it actually be smarter to disclose before the start date despite the risk?
• Any other legal/tactical advice for minimizing the chance of getting terminated?