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u/Otherwise_Young52201

r/neoliberal r/SubredditDrama r/AOW4
▲ 30 r/SubredditDrama

"I think it's overblown nonsense from a bunch of terminally online nerds and underemployed 20 somethings" Drama in r/neoliberal from users, including a self-proclaimed Pro-Data Center Zionist, as they debate topics surrounding AI.

Background: Evan Hubinger, an AI alignment researcher, resigned from Anthropic citing safety issues around developing AI and estimating that the current trajectory of AI development having a 10% of destroying humanity if it continues. A post on r/neoliberal is submitted about this, resulting in drama from within that thread, and the discussion thread. Drama from both these threads are posted below:

Anthropic alignment thread drama

>When people wonder why AI and tech in general has a bad image with the public, it might be smart to pause and think about just how misanthropic and downright weird a lot of the sector has become recently. It’s hard to buy into data center YIMBYism when they’re being used by an industry constantly touting the fact its product is a literal existential risk Totally expecting the “graph go up” crowd to downvote me, but I’ll personally take a guarantee of being alive in 10 years over the potential for 20% greater GDP growth 11/10 times on this one

>>Mate, r/neoliberal has a bad image with "the public".

>>No one can guarantee you that you’ll be alive in 10 years. Make every day count.

>>>Sorry Mr. Pedantic, would you prefer I edit it to “humanity will be alive in 10 years”

>>>>No. Keep it as is.

>Imma need some error bars on that calculation

>>The secret sauce is that there is no calculation

>>>As in the case with any remotely complex prediction about the future, you cannot "calculate" it, but you can certainly put a probability number to it.

>>>>That doesn’t make sense at all, dude

>>>>>It clearly does. There's an obvious difference between the accuracy of the statements: "There is a 95% chance we will breach 1.5C warming by 2050" and "There's a 10% chance we will do so".

>>>>>>You can only justify placing a non-arbitrary probability to some state of affairs by showing how you derived it. If no such calculation exists then the probability is arbitrary

>>>>>>>This is beneath me

>>>>>>>>Literally the funniest shit I have seen on Reddit lmao

>R/Neoliberal: we should trust the experts. Also R/Neoliberal: not these experts!

>>More like: "These aren't experts"

>>>I think we've reached peak arrogance with this comment.

>>>Who are the AI experts?

>>>>"I christen you, Procgen, as a bonafide expert in AI generated outputs. Please accept this wall plaque and wine bottle"

>“Why are people so against data centers?!”

>>I mean most people who are against data centres just run around drooling and screaming "but da wata, da wataaa" or "it uses electricity thooooo".

>>>Bet you wouldn’t last 4 days without water

>>>>Bet I could drink the water used to cool GPUs.

>>It's not for this reason, it's for generic NIMBY reasons.

>>>It’s generic NIMBY reasons but it’s also anxiety about AI taking jobs. Most normies aren’t seriously considering AI extinction risk though.

>>>>"AI took my jerb"

>>>>>Wow you are a treat to have in these conversations

>>>No, it's impossible that the people who would want to stop apartments being built (which this sub was fervently against from day 0) would want a warehouse full of GPUs in it being built. Literally impossible. Take your downvotes because you're wrong and because AI and data centres are evil.

>>>>Reddit's slopwave remains undefeated. What will it swallow next?

>I really don't understand this mentality. In the most harsh terms, The Government has a monopoly on violence and can straight-up murder the people who work on this technology and bomb the copyright infringement factories they use.

>>Can always count on Americans to think they can bomb their way out of every problem despite decades of evidence to the contrary.

>>Could we not suggest I be murdered by the government today? Ffs.

>>>This subreddit is about worms.

>How can you calculate this? Like why 10 and not 5 or 20?

>>Sure, error bars would be nice, but I think as much as people make fun of rationalist-adjacent people, it's actually good to put your beliefs into concrete numbers. Much preferred over the usual commentariat who throw strong opinions out there without any qualification. But trying to be specific gets you made fun of, so I guess these efforts are in vain..

>>>Tragic how these reflexive appeals to incredulity are the order of the day here: "Oh my god, you're using a framework to indicate concretely how likely you think something is to happen in the future, you crack addled freak!!!!!"

>>>>aka pulling numbers out of your ass

>>>>>Which of the following two outcomes is more of a risk? 1. AI is a necessary cause in the extinction of humanity 2. I, CII_Guy am a necessary cause in the extinction of humanity How close are they in likelihood? Please answer without pulling numbers out of your ass.

Discussion Thread drama

>anti-AI threat monitoring activists be like "wahhh i like the way the cops are currently functioning in america" [This comment was made by an account with a "Pro-Data Center Zionist" flair]

>>Flair checks out

>>What?

>>👌👀👌👀👌👀👌👀👌👀 good faith go౦ԁ faith👌 thats ✔ some good👌👌faith right👌👌th 👌 ere👌👌👌 right✔there ✔✔if i do ƽaү so my selｆ 💯 i say so 💯 thats what im talking about right there right there (chorus: ʳᶦᵍʰᵗ ᵗʰᵉʳᵉ) mMMMMᎷМ💯 👌👌 👌НO0ОଠＯOOＯOОଠଠOoooᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒᵒ👌 👌👌 👌 💯 👌 👀 👀 👀 👌👌Good faith

>Anthropic Is Building a Predictive Surveillance System to Monitor Activists this is actually a good thing, not that i expect the reactionaries here to understand true vision for a better tomorrow [Pro-Data Center Zionist]

>>Yes, I love a good old surveillance state

>>>i've yet to see any argument against it that doesn't devolve into, "what if i need to do a crime?"

>>>>Oh wait you’re serious

>>>>>of course, AI is our greatest natural resource

>>This is horrible, why are you cheering this?

>>>Because I think it's overblown nonsense from a bunch of terminally online nerds and underemployed 20 somethings.

>seeing a lot of people upset about the notion that AI could potentially kill us all one day. need i remind you that a lot of things could kill us all one day and your'e not doing shit to stop that? also, if you just do what the AI says, it probably won't hurt you. [Pro-Data Center Zionist]

>My theory is that a lot of AI hate is American liberal channeling their absolute powerlessness as anger at a legitimate target. They can't bring themselves to truly hate the enemy. Their neighbors. Their fellow Americans. It is your parents, your friends and coworkers. They are the evil. But no, you just know they are nice people not like those out-of touch SF nerds. You think an AI lab is really a greater danger to America than an evangelical church? [Deleted comment]

>>God, you're such a misanthrope. This mindset is how you produce civil conflict.

>My theory is that a lot of AI hate is neoliberals channeling their absolute powerlessness as anger at a legitimate target. They can't bring themselves to truly hate the enemy. Their mods. Their fellow shitlibs. It is your substitute teachers, your unemployable college graduates and neurotic doomers. They are the evil. But no, you just know they are nice people not like those out-of touch SF nerds. You think an AI lab is really a greater danger to America than Mod Slack? [Parody of the deleted comment]

>anti ai and ai doomers will be looked upon like the anti vaxers and anti nuclear people in 50 years and no one will face any consequences regarding the deaths their anti progress behaviors have caused [Deleted comment]

>>What's your model

>I posted about anthropic institute modeling different economic scenarios and was massively downvoted within minutes before I could add a simple comment adding context about it and clearly without people having read it, lol. That's the fastest I have seen this happen. 8 mins between me posting and me adding this context comment https://www.reddit.com/r/neoliberal/s/tPRpPAUUbA

>>Probably Altman-operated botnets.

>>It is possible to drag the subreddit out of its slop brained anti-AI malaise, but it's going to be difficult.

>Got ratioed outside the DT for suggesting that CEOs probably aren't solely motivated by money, and probably do think they're doing something good at the end of the day, even if they're misguided about it. Do people really believe that CEOs are literally sitting there saying "I want to destroy the world so I can make more money"?

>>It's truly excruciating how sloppified the subreddit has become.

>>What did you learn about going against groupthink outside of the DT

>>>"CEOs good" is just inside the DT groupthink.

reddit.com
u/Otherwise_Young52201 — 13 days ago
▲ 654 r/SubredditDrama

Minor drama in r/Natalism as the subreddit is shown to have a TFR of only 0.83.

>Honestly this sub is just an interesting thought experiment more than a problem to be solved.

>>This sub is dominated by women and libs. No wonder the replacement rate is so abysmal.

>>>Yeah let’s just blame women for everything

>>>Based

>>>I think we can tell what box you checked on that poll

>I have 0 kid myself so contributing in this trend but in my defense finding a decent guy is very hard most young men's don't want serious relationship.

>>This is simply not true. There are more decent men then women at this point. There's just not men that you're interested in. I know plenty of guys in there 30s who own property, aren't weird, are generally likable, and are mature.

>>>“There are more decent men then women at this point” Source?

>>>I want guys in mid to late 20s only interested in guys around my age Why is this comment getting downvoted nothing wrong with wanting someone around your age

>>>>If its not working its wrong

>>>>>Dumbest statement I’ve ever heard

>>respect. it’s not anti-natalism to say a significant portion of young men this days are not suitable or ready to be good fathers these days.

>>>a significant portion of young women are not suitable or ready to be good mothers these days.

>you need to capture age as well to get a real tfr. obviously a 15 year old on reddit doenst know their tfr

>>And what does a 15 year old know how many kids they can realistically have!? They dont even know who their future partner is! That is like 50% of the equation as to family size. If you had settled on a partner, then yes you can say how many kids you plan to have. I wanted 1, my husband wanted 0 & then was fine with 1 (he is besotted) but if i wanted 2, i would still have had 1. He had a vasectomy when i was 6 months pregnant.

>>>... u ok

>The incel cohort is over represented.

>Include me in the subredditdrama post

reddit.com
u/Otherwise_Young52201 — 14 days ago
▲ 41 r/neoliberal

Making sense of the US Treasury Department's action to double bond buybacks

This is the best attempt of a layman in making sense of what the Treasury is doing. As such, this post might contain errors.

A recent announcement by the US Treasury Department stated the treasury department would double the size of bond buyback operations from the current $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion per operation, effective September 9th this year. What does this mean? Well, the Treasury is buying back bonds from bond investors before maturity is reached. This is funded through the issuance of new bonds to investors, so essentially a refinancing of existing debt.

This doubling of bond buyback operations comes specifically for the US10Y, US20Y, and US30Y. To give a brief visualization of the magnitude of this change, as am example, in April 2026, the total sales of US10Y-US30Y were $74 billion. This number is and probably will be more or less typical across the entirety of 2026, looking at the rest of the chart for past and future bond sales. You can do the math yourself with 4-8 operations of buybacks happening per month, and the increase for buybacks going from $2 billion to $4 billion.

The mechanics of the buyback are also worth looking at: While the treasury has doubled its buyback program for long-term yields, it has NOT changed the composition of the bonds/notes they are selling. Meaning there is effectively a maturity swap from long-term yields to short-term ones. So less US10Y-US30Y supply, and more short-term supply. This has the effect of bringing the yields on long-term debt and short-term debt closer due to changes in supply, and also since typically long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. We can see this in action due to immediate changes in bond yields from the Treasury's announcement according to reporting by CNBC.

By converging yields between long-term yields and short-term yields, this also brings down real interest rates. Since long-term yields better reflect inflation-adjusted returns over time (because, y'know, they are longer-term, which is something investors look at) they are better used as a reference for real interest rates. Hence why long-term yields determine things like mortgages, automobile loans, loans for asset investments, etc. So doubling the size of buyback operations helps juice the economy.

Why might the Treasury be doing this? This might be a genuine play at reducing the burden of interest payments on the US government here. If the bet is that yields will eventually come down due to a number of factors (such as the Iran war ending or corporations cutting back AI spending, leaving more money for bond investment) then the swap from long-term yields to short-term yields makes sense because you could then refinance these short-term yields with long-term yields in the future that carry greater demand, thus lowering interest payments for the government relative to a baseline scenario with no changes.

(A side note, the reason why the Treasury might not want to keep all debt in short-term yields despite their yields being lower is because debt is rolled over more quickly, meaning if yields increase, debt payments will also increase more quickly. Hence why there are different time lengths for yields.)

If you're cynical, however, you might conclude that the Treasury, and by extension, Scott Bessent, have more nefarious motivations. And to be fair, there are reasons to be suspicious: The doubling of buybacks runs from September 9 to November 4, after which the "Treasury will provide more information about future buyback sizes at the next Quarterly Refunding, scheduled for November 4, 2026." and "An updated tentative Treasury buyback schedule will be released at a later date." So conveniently, the Treasury is dampening real interest rates right up until the midterm elections. Curious.

Edit: Don't know why this is restricted, but I initially put it to User Discussion...

u/Otherwise_Young52201 — 2 months ago
▲ 474 r/SubredditDrama

Haley Stevens is El-Slayed: r/neoliberal reacts as Abdul El-Sayed wins the Michigan Democratic senate primary.

The recent Michigan Democratic primary concluded with Abdul El-Sayed, the progressive challenger against Haley Stevens, as the winner.

Abdul El-Sayed is a physician and former Detroit health commissioner and a champion for progressive policies. Apart from supporting Medicare for All, stronger labor protections, and other egalitarian programs, he is best known for being critical of the US-Israel relationship and especially American support for Israel's war in Gaza.

Haley Stevens, on the other hand, is the moderate incumbent (Edit: This is an error on my part, she isn't actually an incumbent, but is in a House seat) and generally has more cautious policies than El-Sayed, emphasizing tried and true polices like supporting manufacturing, particularly for the auto industry. Stevens also strongly supports the US-Israel relationship.

Below is a snippet of the drama from the thread discussing El-Sayed's win over Stevens.. There's also drama from the Discussion Thread that I thought you guys would enjoy. While I have three comments in the Discussion Thread, they they do not pertain to the drama itself. You can check my post history to confirm this.

Michigan senate primary thread drama

>I just hope he wins in November and we can all celebrate as a united party flipping the senate

>>I’m Jewish and I will not celebrate Abdul “Hurt People Hurt People” El-Sayed

>>>did you have a point? [deleted comment]

>>>>I think my point is clear, no? Fuck AES. [deleted comment]

>>>>>With all due respect you are an idiot [deleted comment]

>>>I’m also Jewish, and like the other 71% of Jewish Americans who broke for democrats in 2024, I hope he wins and will also celebrate if he does. Dont miss the forest for the trees.

>>>>Do you also believe the only reason an American Jew would support Israel is money?

>>I'm a Democrat and I would never vote for someone like El-Sayed. I don't think there's a single thing I agree with him on. MFA is a joke. I will always be a Zionist. We shouldn't abolish ICE. All of that makes him unacceptable, especially compared to Mike Rogers, who seems much less ideological and much more competent. One of the few places where I'll be hoping for a Republican victory. I have never voted for a Republican in my life, but if I were a Michigander, I'd for Rogers.

>>>I’m not thrilled about this dude either, but ice should most certainly be abolished.

>>>>This is a ridiculous slogan pandered around by leftists. How the hell are we going to execute our immigration policy without an agency to enforce it? Of course I agree that Trump has been excessive, but that doesn't mean ICE should be abolished, itt means the administration should be thrown out! This is like saying "income taxes are too high -- let's abolish the IRS"

>Damn this sub is full on lefty now huh, maybe it's just the specific people that decide to post on this, but kinda crazy. I get when people say this sub is mainly socdems now, but it seems to be moving demsoc at this point, multiple upvoted comments simping for DSA,, hopefully this is as low as this sub goes.

>>This "evidence-based" sub is really just r/democrats where people vote blue no matter who

>>>Well that's "evidence-based" applied to american politics, so I dont see why you would have an issue with that. Edit: i take that back, I know why: I think Friedmann flairs dont really like evidence.

>>It’s been brigaded by tankies and Abdul bots ever since we made arr Subreddit Drama yesterday

>>>SRD is still a thing? In 2026?

>>You must vote for the people who hate neoliberalism otherwise you don't belong on r/neoliberal - Succs and Loyal Liberals

>>>I think a lot of people here just care more about the Democrats defeating the Republicans than they do about fiercely defending the word neoliberal against anybody who criticizes it.

>>>>They also hate neoliberalism if you get rid of the "neo".

>Why are democrats allergic to winning

>>This shows how out of touch you are. You genuinely prefer Stevens, don't you?

>>>Out of touch with whom? College educated elites?

>>>>Are we still doing this stuff after we have new polling data https://www.theargumentmag.com/p/americans-know-who-the-real-elite and a grand total of 8% of Harris 2024 voters and a whopping 11% of Trump 2024 voters view people with graduate degrees as "the elites"?

>>>>>Doesn’t matter what random people think, a societal elite is a defined thing. It’s just not popular to self identify as an “elite” so everyone bucks the label to the groups above them. White college educated upper middle class people are the most culturally influential in American society (something that the left usually has no problem admitting), and they’re the ones who largely support these leftist candidates

>>>>>>Railing against the "elites" and claiming that all it takes to get you there is a college education makes you sound like a MAGA conspiracy theorist.

>>>>>>>I’m not railing against the elites, I probably fit the “educated elite” label myself, I’m specifically responding to the bizarre accusation that not supporting the guy who won the educated rich white population somehow makes me “out of touch”

>Welp, GOP couldn’t have asked for an easier candidate in purple Michigan. Democratic Party needs to kick out DSA rat fuckers who simply just want easy power when it suits them.

>>Abdul isn't part of the DSA. Also, if they win primaries because voters vote for them, how should the party kick them out?

>>>He’s as DSA as Hasan Piker. I got a bridge to sell you along with that bird that landed on Bernie’s podium when he was anointed as “da chosen one”. The far left likes to bum rush primaries because that’s the only way they can win in deep blue districts. Dude is going to lose big and take the Democratic Party in Michigan down as well. Michigan GOP all had a collective sigh of relief and democrats are fucked in Michigan. Fucking Dearborn and Hamatrack or whatever all went for Trump, this is just another rat fucking at the behest of MAGA.

Discussion Thread drama

>guy who supported "uncommitted" movement in 2024 becomes Dem senate nominee in 2026 what a joke. [deleted comment]

>>Are you pro-genocide or? [deleted comment]

>>>Are you pro 9/11? [deleted comment]

>>>>Well if Friedman flair is asking [deleted comment]

>I don't like him because of the pre-emptive election denialism he was engaging in. I'm tired of watching people destabilize this country and succumb to russian/chinese interests

>>You talk about russian/chinese interests yet literally the only reason this race was at all close was because Stevens had her campaign funded by an actual foreign country interest group.

>>>At the very least Israel doesn't want to see the US actively destabilized. The irony is you blurring the lines between US allies and US adversaries is exactly the point of many of the disinformation operations Russia/China has been engaging in

>>>>I think Bibi campaigning for Trump was pretty destabilizing imo! Our allies seem very non plussed about the shit he does.

>>>>>Israel is not trying to actively destabilize the US. If you can't tell the difference between something like the Likud making dumb self interested calculations and Operation doppelganger idk what to tell you. Russia and China are actively mindraping our population and are involved in just about every reason why our country is unraveling.

u/Otherwise_Young52201 — 2 months ago