The Formula Ranks Julius Erving #21. https://willf123.github.io/nba-net-wins/ . The ABA Is Why It's Complicated
Updated the database to 148 players with full
2025-26 stats. A few things that will generate
argument:
Most surprising top 10: Larry Bird #3, ahead
of Jordan (#4) and LeBron (#5). Bird's per-season
average (7.21) is the highest of any player with
10+ seasons in the database.
Biggest climber: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #27.
His 2025-26 season on OKC's 64-win team is the
best formula performance among active players
this year. Already has the highest peak among
active players outside the top 10.
New addition: Rudy Gobert #56. Three DPOY awards,
13 seasons on winning teams, elite rebounding and
blocks with almost no negative actions. The formula
sees him as significantly underrated by traditional
lists.
Bottom of the list: Cooper Flagg #148 (one season,
26-56 Dallas team, age 19 — check back in 2030),
Pete Maravich #147, Dave Bing #146.
Full 148-player interactive database free at
https://willf123.github.io/nba-net-wins/
Happy to answer questions on any specific ranking.
His 2025-26 season on OKC's 64-win team is the best single-season formula performance among all active players. Peak of 10.19 — already higher than Kobe's career peak.
Published the full Pippen breakdown today —
addresses the "he only won because of Jordan"
argument directly using the 1993-94 season
(55 wins without Jordan, +6.47 Net Wins) as
the proof.
Next week's profile is Allen Iverson at #138.
The formula is brutal on high-usage players
on losing teams. The write-up doesn't dismiss
him — it explains exactly why the math lands
where it does and where the formula's
limitations are.
Full interactive database (148 players,
every season 1946-2026) free at my profile link
Pippen profile and all future profiles at
Updated the database to 148 players with full
2025-26 stats. A few things that will generate
argument:
Most surprising top 10: Larry Bird #3, ahead
of Jordan (#4) and LeBron (#5). Bird's per-season
average (7.21) is the highest of any player with
10+ seasons in the database.
Biggest climber: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #27.
His 2025-26 season on OKC's 64-win team is the
best formula performance among active players
this year. Already has the highest peak among
active players outside the top 10.
New addition: Rudy Gobert #56. Three DPOY awards,
13 seasons on winning teams, elite rebounding and
blocks with almost no negative actions. The formula
sees him as significantly underrated by traditional
lists.
Bottom of the list: Cooper Flagg #148 (one season,
26-56 Dallas team, age 19 — check back in 2030),
Pete Maravich #147, Dave Bing #146.
Full 148-player interactive database free at
check my profile link
Happy to answer questions on any specific ranking.
The formula is called Net Wins. Instead of comparing players to league averages like Win Shares or PER do, it normalizes each player's contributions against their specific team's actual win and loss rates that season.
Same formula applied to every player from George Mikan in 1948 to Nikola Jokic today.
Top 10:
The interactive database (136 players, every season) is free at https://willf123.github.io/nba-net-wins/
Full methodology and the reasoning behind every ranking is at https://netwins.substack.com
Happy to answer any questions about how the formula works.
The formula is called Net Wins. Instead of comparing players
to league averages like Win Shares or PER do, it normalizes
each player's contributions against their specific team's
actual win and loss rates that season.
Same formula applied to every player from George Mikan in
1948 to Nikola Jokic today.
Top 10:
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan
Larry Bird
Wilt Chamberlain
LeBron James
Magic Johnson
Shaquille O'Neal
Scottie Pippen
Bill Russell
Happy to answer any questions about how the formula works.