▲ 25 r/TheVisualInvestors
Ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner updated his Q1 portfolio. Down ~35% on semiconductor puts.
I’m sure you’ve seen this guy everywhere in the last 24h
Leopold Aschenbrenner, ex-OpenAI researcher turned macro investor, who’s been widely shared for his massive semiconductor short thesis.
He disclosed a large position via puts (SMH + single names like NVDA/AMD).
I ran a simple mark-to-market assuming a Q1 top entry on SMH.
Even in that optimistic case, the position is already down ~35%.
And some underlying names (like Intel) have moved sharply higher in the same period.
Worth remembering: even if he was right in the past, nothing is guaranteed for the future.
Direction is often easier to get right, timing is the hardest part!
Options don’t just reward being right, they punish being early!!
u/PerspectiveWrong1233 — 3 days ago