Thought process and lessons from a recent startup
Just finished a dynasty startup. Only my 2nd ever startup, and the 1st was in 2020 so a while ago. Did a post-draft review to see if there were any notable learning points/takeaways, and thought I'd share for interest/discussion on draft theory.
Notable league settings: Double SF, PPR, TEP +0.5, all TDs = 3pts, passing yards 1pt = 50 yards.
- Unique settings were a real game-changer. In particular, the impact on QBs from reduced TD/pass yds scoring really affected my rankings. I suspected this would significantly affect everyone's draft rankings and limit the value of ADP. I came up with a set of projections and tiers to use for reference, but found myself reacting a lot due to unexpected picks/runs on players.
- For an idea of relative value based on my season long points projections:
- QB3 (Jayden Daniels, 185-229) was roughly equal to RB20 (Javonte, 184-226), WR20 (McLaurin, 179-215), and TE7 (Fannin, 193-230)
- QB10 (Caleb, 167-189) was roughly equal to RB25 (Warren, 164-187), WR31 (Wan'Dale, 161-190), and TE 16 (Kincaid, 168-187)
- 2026 Rookie draft picks were included in the draft pool
First 10 rounds (starting rosters). I had the 1.10. 3rd round reversal, 35 rounds total.
Rd 1 (1.10)
- previous 4 picks: 1.06 JSN, 1.07 Bijan, 1.08 ASB, 1.09 Bowers
- my pick: McBride
- notes: First 8 picks went as expected; 2QBs (Allen/Maye), 2RBs (Gibbs, Bijan), and 4WRs (Chase, Puca, JSN, ASB). I hoped to get Bowers. Was debating between McBride and JJets - went with McBride due to the TEP boost.
Rd 2 (2.03)
- previous 4 picks: 1.11 Rookie 1.01 (Love), 1.12 Jefferson, 2.01 Jeanty, 2.02 Nabers
- my pick: Achane
- notes: Choice was between RB (Achane/Taylor) and WR (Lamb/London/Tet). My upside projections for Achane were significantly higher, and my tier break for WRs had several players left. I'm also a Dolphins fan and don't have him on either of my other teams - so yes it was a bit of a homer pick but absolutely in line with my rankings.
Rd 3 (3.03)
- previous 4 picks: 2.11 Loveland, 2.12 Daniels, 3.01 Caleb, 3.02 Egbuka
- my pick: Pickens
- notes: Lamar was on the board but felt like I had to take WR here (Lamar went next). My choice was between Pickens, Collins, and Ladd. Decided to roll the dice on Pickens - two years younger than Nico, the connection with Dak looked fantastic in year 1, and I was a little too uneasy about target distribution in LA to feel good about Ladd as my WR1.
Rd 4 (4.10)
- previous 4 picks: 4.06 G Wilson, 4.07 Dart, 4.08 Ken Walker, 4.09 Nix
- my pick: McCaffrey
- notes: Really debated this one - make a commitment to challenge in Year 1 with CMC, or take a younger player (Judkins, Burden, Rice, 2026 1.03 on the board). The potential positional advantage from CMC/Achane at RB was too tempting to resist, so I guess Year 1 here we come.
Rd 5 (5.03)
- previous 4 picks: 4.11 Judkins, 4.12 Hall, 5.01 Rookie 1.03, 5.02 Burden
- my pick: AJ Brown
- notes: I wanted to take my WR2 and getting AJB felt like a steal. Fully compatible with the win-now strategy. Other options under consideration were Rice and BTJ, but with the questions over both this was ultimately a fairly straightforward choice.
Rd 6 (6.10)
- previous 4 picks: 6.06 Rookie 1.05, 6.07 M Wilson, 6.08 Rookie 1.06, 6.09 Bucky.
- my pick: Malik Willis
- notes: Anticipating the next QB run in the near future, and assumed at least 1 QB going in the short turn before my next pick. The rushing upside for Willis gave him a clear boost over my next options available (Purdy, Love, Dak) given the scoring settings. Dolphins fandom didn't come into play here - happy with the choice purely on projections and 2-year outlook despite the questions that exist.
Rd 7 (7.03)
- previous 4 picks: 6.11 Barkley, 6.12 Purdy, 7.01 Javonte, 7.02 Rookie 1.07
- my pick: Alec Pierce
- notes: felt like I had to take my 3rd WR before the long wait to 8.10. Pierce was the last of a tier for me. Pretty easy click.
Rd 8 (8.10)
- previous 4 picks: 8.06 Rookie 1.10, 8.07 Stroud, 8.08 Goff, 8.09 Worthy
- my pick: Wan'Dale Robinson
- notes: I had Worthy queued up before Team 9 took him. Anticipated Team 12 going double WR at the turn based on their roster so receiver was the only position under consideration. Wan'Dale as WR4 in a PPR league with a new contract felt like a sound choice. As it turned out, 3 of the next 4 picks were WRs!
Rd 9 (9.03)
- previous 4 picks: 8.11 Adams, 8.12 DJ Moore, 9.01 QJ, 9.02 Stafford
- my pick: Swift
- notes: Swift as my RB3 at this point in the draft seemed like huge value. Definitely benefited from a lot of WRs, QBs, and TEs being taken in the last 2 rounds. RJ Harvey was also on the board and I was very much torn between the two of them - went with Swift just given his consistency and this being my RB3 (if it was RB4 I'd have probably gone with Harvey). This is probably the pick I'm second-guessing the most out of the first 10 rounds.
Rd 10 (10.10)
- previous 4 picks: 10.06 J Brooks, 10.07 Otton, 10.08 Sutton, 10.09 Jaylen Warren.
- my pick: Tyler Shough
- notes: Feeling nicely balanced at RB/WR, and with the questions over Willis as my QB1 (season-long health as a rushing QB, Dolphins upside) it felt like a good place to take my QB2 and Tyler Shough was my clear lead over the other options available - a little bit of rushing baked into projections, offense looked great second half of last year, and I love the additions of Tyson and Etienne for his outlook.
Summary of Rounds 11 onwards
- Feel fairly good about my depth picks: WR5 = Jayden Reed, QB3 = Darnold, RB4 = Dobbins, TE2 = Dulcich.
- Rolled the dice on several 2nd year WRs to chase a breakout. Tre Harris, Jack Bech, Pat Bryant, Tory Horton.
- I missed the boat on drafting a solid RB bench. Should have probably prioritised Jaylen Wright as the Achane owner (I passed on him at 17.03 and he went 4 picks before it came back to me at 18.10). Every time I had someone lined up they went in the long waits between my picks - in retrospect I probably should have reached 1/2-1 round for a couple of them (JCM, Gainwell, Allgeier, Bigsby, etc). After Dobbins I'm very thin - LeQuint Allen, Kaleb Johnson, Brashard Smith, Jawhar Jordan.
- Had a plan at QB and really like how it panned out. After Darnold I have pure backups with rushing upside: Milroe, Lance, Levis. They'll either get me 0 pts for MaxPF or serve as spot starts/bye cover with a nice rushing floor (or maybe trade pieces)