The Lead:

Last demonstrated that Washington is actively using Section 232 national security authority to shield high-tech manufacturing, placing 15% tariffs and Minimum Import Prices on foreign polysilicon and solar components. This aggressive expansion of the centralized trade architecture triggered immediate countermeasures, as Beijing restricted dual-use drone exports to the US while levying duties on American agricultural goods. Meanwhile, updated fiscal reports confirmed that while CBP has already certified $100 billion in IEEPA duty refunds, North American supply chains have rapidly reconfigured with a record 83.6% of Canadian and Mexican goods taking shelter under USMCA rules to insulate themselves from escalating baseline tariffs

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates remain firm week-over-week, with general pricing still above $7,000 per FEU to the US West Coast.

While some highly specific promotional or special rates are available, the broader market has not experienced the decline that had been anticipated earlier in August. Expectations that pricing could retreat toward June or July levels have faded, with carriers successfully defending current rate levels.

CEA to USEC: East Coast pricing is similarly stable week-over-week, with even less rate adjustment reported than on the West Coast. Despite some reduction in overall volumes, carriers are actively removing capacity to keep supply aligned with demand and support existing pricing.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,200 from China to US West Coast and $6,520 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Too Soon to Tell How the Market Will React to the latest Tariffs Tariff: The recent 2.5% tariff increase (stepping up from 10% to 12.5%) has generated little to no downward pressure on import volumes. Importers have largely absorbed the minor adjustment as a standard cost of doing business rather than pausing procurement schedules.
• Liquidity Influx from Prior Tariff Refunds: Many US importers are actively receiving cash payouts from historical tariff refund filings. This newly acquired capital buffer is enabling buyers to absorb or subsidize the extra 2.5% duty without reducing order sizes or hiking shelf prices.
• Aggressive Capacity Reductions by Ocean Carriers: Ocean liners are taking stringent measures to defend rate floors by executing blank (cancelled) sailings on roughly 25% to 30% of total rotational capacity, withdrawing roughly 40 out of 150 planned sailings.
• Pre-Holiday Peak Season Stocking: With major Q4 promotional periods (Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas) approaching in under two months, importers are prioritizing volume preservation and inventory readiness over waiting for speculative rate drops.

Looking Ahead:

Rates are projected to remain firm and range-bound through the remainder of August and into September 2026. With carriers demonstrating strong discipline through capacity management and importers utilizing cash reserves to maintain holiday order flows, a steep downward rate correction appears unlikely in the short term. Unless consumer demand drops sharply enough to force importers to pause purchase orders, or external macro shifts significantly drive down bunker fuel costs, the transpacific market is expected to remain tight with elevated freight pricing through the early autumn peak.

In the News:

The Guardian: Trump orders new 15% tariff on key material for solar panels and microchips
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/07/trump-orders-tariff-solar-panels-microchips-manufacturing-ingredient

CBS: Warren presses US companies to share billions in tariff refunds with customers
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/elizabeth-warren-tariff-refunds-ieepa/

Bloomberg: US Moves Past Tariffs to Focus on Supply Chain Revamps in China Trade Policy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-08-11/us-moves-past-tariffs-to-focus-on-supply-chain-revamps-in-china-trade-policy

NY Times: Canada Offers US Concessions in Trade Talks but Demands a Comprehensive Deal
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/07/world/canada/us-trade-tariffs-carney-trump.html

BBC: Trump imposes 15% tariff on key chip material to counter China
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdrvn686dljo

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

I am considering purchasing a musical instrument in Sweden.

Can someone tell me what the percentage is? I find it very confusing.

Do the newly announced section 301 tariffs stack with the existing section 232 tariffs?

Hi everyone,

I have been paying Section 232 duties on auto parts since last year. I just now received approval for the offset credit from the U.S. auto seller and want to offset the duties. Looking at CBP guideline CSMS #66684128, it mentions refunds through PSC, but there is no mention of refunds through a protest.

Can I apply the offset credit to liquidated entries to get a refund? Should I proceed with a protest?

The Lead:

Last week was defined by the transition from temporary, emergency US surcharges toward a permanent, investigation-justified centralized trade architecture. The USTR’s launch of public hearings for the 60-nation forced labor tariffs signaled that Washington will lock in a new double-digit baseline duty structure before its temporary Section 122 fees expire.

This unyielding protectionist environment, spurred by prior legal constraints like the Court of International Trade's invalidation of universal tariffs, has forced close trading partners like Canada and Cambodia to rapidly rewrite their domestic import laws to claim US compliance exemptions. However, as the joint IMF-WTO summit confirmed that global commerce is becoming deeply uneven under these measures, the week closed with clear signs that the high compliance costs of the US metal multiplier are driving a major manufacturing migration away from secondary regional partners, fundamentally squeezing the North American supply chain.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot rates eased this week, falling from the mid-$7,000 range to the mid-$6,000 range. Carriers have reintroduced fixed-rate space and special-rate allocations, bringing pricing down by approximately $1,000 per container from the early July peak.

Despite the lower pricing, booking volumes remain soft as many importers continue delaying shipments while waiting for greater clarity on US tariff policy.

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast, however, declined more moderately, with carriers offering more competitive pricing and improved space availability to stimulate demand. While pricing remains elevated compared to historical norms, the week-over-week decline reflects weakening booking activity rather than increased capacity constraints.

Importers continue adopting a wait-and-see approach, limiting any meaningful rebound in demand despite lower freight costs.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,680 from China to US West Coast and $6,700 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Tariff uncertainty is delaying imports. Many importers are postponing customs clearance, or delaying shipments altogether, until there is greater certainty about what happens after the current tariff period expires.
• Lower prices are not translating into higher volumes. Despite the rate reductions, freight forwarders are not seeing any meaningful increase in booking activity, suggesting importers remain focused on policy risk rather than transportation costs.
• Middle East tensions have not yet impacted rates. Although geopolitical risks remain, market participants believe any effect from oil prices or shipping disruptions would likely take several weeks to filter into ocean freight pricing and may be muted given rates are already at elevated levels.
• Peak season may have already occurred. Many importers accelerated shipments during May and June to stay ahead of tariff deadlines, effectively pulling forward the traditional late-summer peak season.

Looking Ahead:

The next two weeks are likely to determine the direction of the trans-Pacific market. If tariff uncertainty is resolved with lower or eliminated duties, import demand could quickly rebound, potentially creating an extended peak season through August and September and pushing ocean rates higher again.

However, if tariffs remain in place, or increase, market participants expect booking volumes to weaken further, putting additional downward pressure on freight rates. With many importers already frontloading inventory earlier this year, the industry may ultimately experience another year without a traditional peak season, instead seeing demand shift around trade policy developments rather than seasonal retail cycles.

In the News:

The Guardian: US refunds $81bn in Trump tariffs after supreme court ruled them illegal
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/14/trump-tariffs-us-refunds

Bloomberg: How Trump’s Zest for Tariffs Pits US Industries Against Each Other
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-07-14/trump-and-antidumping-tariffs

Reuters: IMF lowers 2026 global growth forecast to 3%, sees rebound in 2027
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/imf-edges-2026-global-growth-forecast-lower-3-sees-rebound-2027-2026-07-08/

CNBC: China exports in June rise at fastest pace since 2021 as AI boom, tariff rush lift trade
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/14/china-june-trade-data-exports-imports.html

CNN: After a year of tariffs, automakers are still resistant to moving production to the US
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/12/business/tariffs-automakers-new-factories

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

The Lead:

Last week reflected a sharper turn toward defensive and enforcement-driven trade policy. In Europe, the EU’s new steel import framework took effect on July 1, setting annual tariff-free quotas at 18.3 million tonnes and applying a 50% duty on out-of-quota imports as part of its response to global steel overcapacity and import pressure.

The UK introduced a similar steel trade measure the same day, reducing tariff-free quota volumes by 51% and applying a 50% tariff on imports above those limits. In North America, the United States declined to renew USMCA in its current form during the agreement’s mandatory joint review, keeping the pact in force while pushing it into a more uncertain annual review process.

At the same time, US Trade Representative (USTR) advanced two major Section 301 tracks: a Brazil-focused action covering practices tied to digital trade, preferential tariffs, intellectual property, ethanol market access and illegal deforestation, and a broader forced-labor-related proceeding covering 60 economies accused of failing to effectively restrict imports made with forced labor.

Taken together, the week showed how tariff policy is increasingly being used not only to protect domestic industries, but also to enforce labor, environmental, industrial and geopolitical priorities across global supply chains.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Spot rates remain elevated in the mid $7,000 range, though some carriers are beginning to offer small reductions of around $100–$200 week over week. The lane appears to have reached a near-term ceiling after the recent run-up, with demand still soft and no significant rush from shippers to move cargo quickly.

While rates are still among the highest levels seen since the COVID-era freight surge, the market now looks more likely to hold steady or ease slightly than continue climbing.

CEA to USEC: East Coast rates are also holding at historically high levels, with pricing at $8,000-plus range and some inland or longer-haul movements likely remaining more expensive. However, like the West Coast lane, the direction is beginning to soften slightly as carriers respond to weaker booking activity.

The market is not seeing enough volume improvement to justify another increase, and any further movement appears more likely to be flat to modestly lower rather than upward.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,500 from China to US West Coast and $7,000 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Rates may have hit their ceiling. The market has reached a point where further increases could risk stopping demand altogether, pushing carriers to make small adjustments downward.
• The US holiday slowed activity. With the first week of July partly affected by the US holiday, carriers had fewer business days to assess real demand, making this week more important for measuring booking momentum.
• Carriers are likely seeing softer booking requests. The modest reductions suggest carriers may already be responding to lower demand signals.
• Weather may create temporary disruption. Tight air cargo space was attributed more to Typhoon Maysak in China than to strong cargo volume.

Looking Ahead:

The near-term outlook points to a market that is likely to hold steady or gradually decline rather than move higher. The recent peak appears to have been reached, and without a rebound in volume, carriers may have limited room to defend current rate levels for long.

That said, a sharp collapse is not guaranteed. Carriers are expected to manage the decline carefully and may avoid aggressive reductions unless booking activity weakens further. The next one to two weeks will be important for determining whether August brings a meaningful peak season or whether the market settles into a softer summer pattern.

Tariff uncertainty could also influence shipper behavior later in July. If new tariff developments trigger another round of urgency, some short-term demand could return. But based on this week’s market reality, the more likely path is slight downward pressure with rates remaining elevated by historical standards.

In the News:

NBC News: Trump refuses to renew USMCA trade pact, toppling one of the last pillars of stability in global trade
https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/trump-usmca-renewal-tariffs-trade-rcna352594

The Business Times: US forced-labour hearing begins, paving way for more Trump tariffs
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/global/us-forced-labour-hearing-begins-paving-way-more-trump-tariffs

Reuters: EU trade with US hits record high despite tariff tensions, study shows
https://www.reuters.com/business/eu-trade-with-us-hits-record-despite-tariff-tensions-study-shows-2026-07-03/

Reuters: Democratic AGs oppose Trump plan to impose tariffs on forced labor concerns
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democratic-ags-oppose-trump-plan-impose-tariffs-forced-labor-concerns-2026-07-06/

WSJ: Trump’s Brokerage Accounts Made Big Trades Around ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/trumps-brokerage-accounts-made-big-trades-around-liberation-day-tariffs-06e92290

Got another refund, so I went to log in to our TAO in ACE to check the CAPE report, and it made me change my password, then displayed this page:

There was an error logging you inWe encountered an error logging you in. We apologize for any inconvience. We recommend that you close all browser windows, clear any browser cache, and try again. If this does not remediate the issue, please visit cbp.gov/trade/automated/ace-portal-modernization for support. If there are error details provided below, please include them when reaching out to support.errorErrorError Details: Your account is inactive. If you are a Trade user, contact your Trade account owner to reactivate your account. If you are a Trade account owner, or a PGA user, contact ACE Support with your ACE ID included and your name and email address as it appears in your account.

I did some Googling and found a page that said to email ACE.Support@cbp.dhs.gov and include “reactivation” as the subject, but that didn't work, or at least hasn't yet.

Does anyone else have this issue? I checked, and my last login was only 2 months ago...

Edit: The account has been reactivated. It seems this guide did work, though the automatic reply was a bit delayed:

https://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDHSCBP/bulletins/41c5845

https://preview.redd.it/9eterbxpmubh1.png?width=557&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e9ac2fe1beb04b2162248516f9db5237224161d

I heard about refunds while on the UPS website and tried to apply for refunds for two DHL shipments that forced me to send extra payments within 5 days with the threat of the packages being returned to the sender.

After they stated over the phone that it happens automatically because DHL was my IOR, they now sent me an email that says they won't be sending me anything.

https://preview.redd.it/rs8es6utaqbh1.png?width=2374&format=png&auto=webp&s=cab2348c3926454e6b96eb66b66c10b595119da0

What does this mean and are they valid for saying this? Did I misunderstand the tariff refunds?

OK, so long story short:

my company imports a ton from China (mugs with an alarm clock inside, if you must know) and we paid WELL over 500k in ieepa last year. When the whole supreme court thing happened (making the tariffs illegal) our go-to counsel recc'd us some litigation firm (I guess theyre friends?) to handle our refund. Thing is, they told us we'd need to file a bunch of lawsuits in the international trade court or whatever and we are starting to get the bill now that the refunds are coming in....

These guys took 20% of the refund (which seemed fair at the time). But now Im seeing that:

1. we didn't need a lawsuit at all
2. there are reputable service providers managing this that charge SINGLE DIGITS!!! 3%???
3. I'm screwed

My customs broker told me absolutely nothing about this process LITERALLY ZERO and couldnt or wouldnt respond to my emails in a timely manner, Im not saying all CB are like this but I wanted to get that out of the way before yall start blaming me for not using them.

The Lead:

Last week showed global trade policy moving in two directions at once: governments continued tightening enforcement and tariff tools while also opening new negotiation channels to manage the fallout. In the United States, CBP’s indefinite suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports marked a major enforcement shift, while USTR’s Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing practices signaled that sector-specific tariff pressure remains a live policy tool. In Europe, the UK moved forward with tighter steel safeguards, including lower tariff-free quotas and a higher over-quota duty, while the EU opened a new three-month consultation process with China to address trade imbalances, export controls, market access, and import surges. India’s comments on a potential U.S. trade deal further underscored that tariff positioning remains a core negotiating objective for major manufacturing economies. Overall, the week reflected a global trade environment defined by tariff volatility, industrial protection, supply chain security, and selective bilateral dealmaking rather than broad liberalization.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: spot rates are averaging in the mid-$7,000, with standard standalone containers tracking between $7,500 and $7,900.That represents a dramatic increase from levels seen just a few months ago, when West Coast rates were closer to the $1,600–$1,700 range.

CEA to USEC: rates lane has climbed to nearly $9,000, with inland and Midwest movements pushing past the $10,000 threshold. Space remains tight despite some reported capacity increases of roughly 6%–7%, and those additions do not appear large enough to meaningfully relieve the market.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,950 from China to US West Coast and $6,650 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Imminent July General Rate Increases (GRIs): Carriers are testing the market’s upper limits by introducing an additional $1,500 GRI for the first half of July. This triggered a massive, last-minute rush at the end of June as shippers scrambled to push containers out of China to avoid the premium.
• Aggressive Inventory Front-Loading: Importers have fundamentally compressed the typical multi-month peak season. Fearing prolonged volatility, businesses pulled forward orders they did not immediately need, clogging current vessel capacity with goods destined for sales cycles months down the line.

Looking Ahead:

The market is rapidly approaching a critical breaking point. Because current rate structures are no longer a true reflection of baseline market conditions, a noticeable drop in volume is projected for July. Many general importers possess roughly three to four weeks of safety stock and are expected to pause bookings for the first half of the month to see if rates soften. The primary exception will be manufacturing supply chains, which are forced to absorb these stiff premiums to avoid halting production lines.

While a two-week shipping strike or buyer strike from importers could force an adjustment , a significant price correction (such as a drop back down to the $5,500 range) is highly unlikely in the near term. Because core geopolitical disruptions remain active and carriers are intent on squeezing every penny out of the current capacity crunch, spot rates are expected to grind out at these elevated levels through the end of July.

In the News:

NY Post: US tariff refunds rush into company accounts ahead of deadline this week: ‘Never thought this day would come’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/29/business/us-tariff-refunds-rush-into-company-accounts-ahead-of-deadline-this-week-never-thought-this-day-would-come/

The Business Journals: Mitigating disruption: How will evolving global trade dynamics impact my business?
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2026/06/29/mitigating-disruption-global-trade-impact-business.html

Bloomberg: Global Trade Braces for Another Period of Policy Uncertainty
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-29/global-trade-uncertainty

Reuters: Why Trump's tariffs had plenty of bark, but limited bite
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why-trumps-tariffs-had-plenty-bark-limited-bite-2026-06-30/

The Guardian: EU halves duty-free steel quota but UK and other partners given better rate
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/30/eu-duty-free-steel-quota-uk-rate-brexit

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

Hello Everyone,

I just wanted to get grasp on what most people are deciding to do about the entries that are already past 80 day liquidation but within the 180 day protest window. When I contacted US CUSTOMS and ask if I should file a protest, they literally just say "wait for phase 3". Roll the dice and pray phase 3 will roll out liquidated entries? or File protest and go though extra paper work in the off chance that there might be a light at the end of the legal tunnel?

The Lead:

Last week, global trade policy activity centered on efforts to stabilize key economic relationships while new tariff and enforcement risks continued to develop. The European Parliament approved the EU-US tariff agreement, helping preserve a 15% tariff framework for most EU exports to the United States while expanding access for U.S. industrial, agricultural, and seafood products. At the same time, the EU and UK prepared for a July summit aimed at easing post-Brexit trade frictions, particularly in food and agricultural goods. In North America, the United States and Mexico advanced USMCA review discussions covering rules of origin, steel, aluminum, autos, agriculture, labor, and economic security. However, tensions also increased as USTR launched a Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing policies, raising the possibility of future trade retaliation. In Asia, the United States and India moved toward further trade negotiations, with India emphasizing the importance of reaching a deal quickly to strengthen its tariff position relative to regional competitors. Overall, the week reflected a mix of negotiated tariff management, regional trade realignment, and targeted enforcement actions shaping global trade policy.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates remained elevated this week, with standard market levels still pushing above $6,000 per container. However, carriers and agents are increasingly making deal or promotional rate structures available, allowing some shipments to move closer to the $5,700–$5,800 range when volume, allocation, or carrier-ratio requirements can be met.

CEA to USEC: market appears broadly unchanged week over week, with no major new rate movement called out this week. The overall pricing environment remains firm, but the most visible competitive pressure is showing up on the West Coast, where high spot levels are beginning to push some importers to pause or delay non-urgent cargo.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,315 from China to US West Coast and $6,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• End-of-Month Volume Depletion: As June comes to a close, the initial wave of urgent peak-season cargo has already sailed. The remaining leftover volume in the market is less time-sensitive, leaving forwarders fighting harder over a smaller pool of active shippers.
• Stricter Carrier Ratio Deals: To guarantee vessel occupancy while capitalizing on high spot rates, carriers are tying low, fixed-contract space (~$3,000) to standard market-rate space. These ratios have become significantly tougher for forwarders, escalating from a 1:1 requirement to 1:3, 1:4, or even 1:5, effectively dragging the blended deal price up closer to the standard spot market.
• Aggressive Forwarder Competition: Because space is tight but active customer volume is pausing, freight forwarders are aggressively passing these blended carrier deals directly to shippers. Profit margins are being squeezed as forwarders use these discounts defensively to prevent clients from cross-shopping.

Looking Ahead:

The market is likely to stay firm into July, with continued pressure on space and rates. However, the tone is shifting. Importers are no longer simply accepting higher prices across the board; more are weighing whether to ship now or wait. That customer hesitation is forcing forwarders to be more strategic with deal rates, relationship management, and urgency-based messaging.

If July brings another general rate increase or further tightening, the current “ship now before it gets worse” message may continue to be effective. But if customer pushback grows, we could see more selective discounting or promotional structures used to protect volume, even while headline market rates remain elevated.

In the News:

• WSJ: See the Global Chokepoints That Carry Much of the World’s Trade https://www.wsj.com/world/see-the-global-chokepoints-that-carry-much-of-the-worlds-trade-9683adf2
• CNBC: Bruegel’s Wolff says G7 seeks global trade rebalancing https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/06/16/g7-leaders-looking-to-achieve-a-global-trade-rebalancing--bruegel.html
• Bloomberg: Trump’s New US Tariff Wall Shakes Up Winners, Losers Lineup https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/trump-builds-a-new-us-tariff-wall-in-shakeup-of-winners-losers
• Reuters: India seeks tariff advantage over peers in push to finalise US trade deal https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seeks-tariff-advantage-over-peers-push-finalise-us-trade-deal-2026-06-22/
• ABC News: China Shock 2.0: Surging Chinese exports threaten Europe's economy, raising concern https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/china-shock-20-surging-chinese-exports-threaten-europes-133910524

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-hold-firm-on-fuel-surcharges-despite-emerging-us-iran-peace-plans-tfx-update-wk-june-15-2026

The Lead:

The mid-point of June 2026 demonstrated that the world is moving away from broad, sweeping border surcharges toward highly targeted, regulatory trade walls. The United States actively advanced its strategy to replace expiring emergency surcharges with permanent Section 301 labor tariffs, while successfully utilizing massive Section 232 pharmaceutical duties to force international drug manufacturers into onshoring commitments. Simultaneously, the European Union acted to protect its internal market on two fronts: by closing the de minimis loophole with a new €3 flat fee on low-value online imports, and by advancing the Turnberry trade deal to secure lasting tariff peace with Washington. Ultimately, the week proved that the global economy is functioning within a highly legalistic centralized trade architecture in the West, where access to prime consumer markets requires meeting strict labor, safety, and supply-chain origin mandates. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific ocean freight market has officially entered a higher pricing bracket, confirming the expiration of $6,000 spot rates. Over the past week, ocean freight rates from China to both North American coasts experienced a steep climb, driven by heavy volume increases in the first half of June. 

CEA to USWC: Spot rates have broken past previous thresholds and are now officially confirmed in the low $6,000s per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast have pushed even higher, settling firmly into the mid-$7000s per FEU. 

For comparison, Gulf Coast rates are mirroring the East Coast in the mid-$7,000s, while inland moves to the Midwest (e.g., Chicago) have reached $8,000 to $8,400. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,750 from China to US West Coast and $6,400 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/lx7oic1vio7h1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=90803209c8fcc40efb159b0c4046715792811da8

https://preview.redd.it/diue3ioxio7h1.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=89e418d8fd3529f5f2b50db7ddebeb152241100c

https://preview.redd.it/ca150kszio7h1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=690da9d7f5a892b4a5de8199f6c3c80cc814ed59

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Peak Season Front-Loading: Carriers reported a significant spike in cargo volumes during the first half of June. This surge is largely attributed to shippers front-loading their inventory early to avoid peak-season bottlenecks, which directly triggered carrier GRI implementations for the second half of the month.  
• Port Congestion & Rolled Cargo: Ongoing backlog from previous weeks continues to choke the network. This legacy congestion has triggered heavy rolling of bookings, severely degrading schedule reliability. 
• Strict Dynamic Quoting: Due to the daily volatility in space availability, standard quotes are no longer guaranteed. Logistics providers are forcing a subject to roll and availability clause, as space secured one day is often entirely gone by the next.

 

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook points to sustained upward pressure and prolonged volatility. Shippers should abandon expectations for a quick rate correction; carriers have just successfully pushed rates into the $6,000–$7,000+ range and will be highly resistant to lowering them, likely citing ongoing market uncertainty to justify keeping current fuel surcharges and base rates intact.

Furthermore, because booking backlogs are already stretching lead times out significantly, with some agents quoting the beginning of July as the earliest available space, shippers must plan and book several weeks in advance to secure equipment and vessel space. Even if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East stabilizes and a formal peace deal is signed by the end of the week, the lag in carrier operational adjustments means the earliest the market would see any tangible impact or relief on fuel surcharges would be late next week or early July. 

In the News:

WSJ: The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-global-economy-is-threatened-again-by-trade-imbalances-b996bc00 

NY Post: Trump warns France in exclusive interview with The Post: Kill tech tax or face 100% wine tariffs: ‘I have no choice’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/15/business/trump-warns-france-in-exclusive-interview-with-the-post-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs/ 

The Guardian: Me, worry? For US small businesses, Trump’s tariffs are now a non-issue
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/14/small-business-trump-tariffs 

Reuters: Macron maintains France will not bend to Trump over digital tax
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-warns-france-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs-ny-post-reports-2026-06-15/ 

The Economist: A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/11/a-trade-war-between-the-eu-and-china-seems-inevitable 

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.

The Lead:

The first week of June 2026 saw a transition from chaotic, emergency trade restrictions to deeply structured, long-term industrial protectionism. By unveiling a two-tiered, 60-nation Section 301 tariff framework based on forced labor criteria, the US successfully engineered a more durable, court-proof legal vehicle to replace its temporary balance-of-payments surcharges before they expire in July.

This aggressive US move toward a highly regulated, centralized trade architecture forced major partners into structural pivots: the European Union finalized a critical concession pact with Washington to secure its baseline 10% preference while simultaneously enacting a fierce new domestic steel quota regime to lock out Chinese market dumping. Ultimately, the week proved that while a multipolar landscape continues to operate elsewhere through localized compromises like the new US-China Board of Trade, global supply chains are facing a permanently higher cost baseline dictated by strict national labor, environment, and metal-origin compliance walls.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The container shipping market is experiencing substantial week-over-week rate increases, catching many importers by surprise as prices climb significantly. Current ocean freight rates are rapidly escalating past previous baselines .

CEA to USWC: Rates have surged from the high $4,000+, nearly $5,000, and are explicitly projected to climb over $6,000+ per container.

CEA to USEC: Rates are following a similar upward trajectory and are expected to surpass $7,000+ per container.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,450 from China to US West Coast and $5,900 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

The Traffic Jam Backlog in China: Persistent blank sailings have triggered severe cargo backlogs at Chinese export hubs. When a carrier cancels a voyage, hundreds of containers are rolled to the following week, compounding volumes, generating a traffic jam effect, and triggering multi-day communication delays just to confirm bookings.

Pre-July Tariff Anxiety and Front-Loading: Importers are grappling with immense confusion and marketing anxiety regarding impending July tariff changes. To avoid recalculation headaches and potential margin erosion from unexpected 20% to 30% adjustments, businesses are aggressively front-loading their fall and holiday season inventories ahead of schedule.

Overlapping Demand Cycles: The unseasonal surge of front-loaded holiday goods is directly colliding with the traditional, non-negotiable peak importing window for summer and outdoor seasonal products, overwhelming available vessel space.

Looking Ahead:

The current market strain represents an early, highly compressed peak season rather than the traditional timeline typically seen later in the year. This elevated rate environment is expected to persist through the remainder of June and throughout July, as ocean carriers are highly unlikely to voluntarily relinquish their pricing leverage.

A traditional, prolonged peak season spanning August through October appears unlikely under current macroeconomic conditions. Instead, relief will likely hinge on two primary triggers later this summer: Front-loaders completely depleting their advanced supply chain volumes by late July, causing export demand to drop; and carriers systematically restoring blanked vessels back into active service rotations.

Once vessel space opens up, carriers will be forced to downwardly adjust their pricing levels to attract volume, potentially pointing toward market normalization by August or September.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariff Wall Takes a Curious Woke Turn

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-08/trump-and-tariffs

NYTimes: Trump Administration Turns to a New Rationale to Justify Old Tariffs

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html

CNBC: Trump’s trade war has a new target: forced labor. The case behind it is far from simple

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-tariffs-trade-china-forced-labor.html

Reuters: Signs global trade in goods is starting to slow, WTO says

https://www.reuters.com/business/signs-global-trade-goods-starting-slow-wto-says-2026-06-05/

Financial Times: Donald Trump’s replacement tariff wall continues to rise

https://www.ft.com/content/ed7c8cb6-821e-47f3-80c0-463f4bca6e3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Subscribe for weekly updates from Freight Right.