OK, so long story short:

my company imports a ton from China (mugs with an alarm clock inside, if you must know) and we paid WELL over 500k in ieepa last year. When the whole supreme court thing happened (making the tariffs illegal) our go-to counsel recc'd us some litigation firm (I guess theyre friends?) to handle our refund. Thing is, they told us we'd need to file a bunch of lawsuits in the international trade court or whatever and we are starting to get the bill now that the refunds are coming in....

These guys took 20% of the refund (which seemed fair at the time). But now Im seeing that:

1. we didn't need a lawsuit at all
2. there are reputable service providers managing this that charge SINGLE DIGITS!!! 3%???
3. I'm screwed

My customs broker told me absolutely nothing about this process LITERALLY ZERO and couldnt or wouldnt respond to my emails in a timely manner, Im not saying all CB are like this but I wanted to get that out of the way before yall start blaming me for not using them.

The Lead:

Last week showed global trade policy moving in two directions at once: governments continued tightening enforcement and tariff tools while also opening new negotiation channels to manage the fallout. In the United States, CBP’s indefinite suspension of the de minimis exemption for low-value imports marked a major enforcement shift, while USTR’s Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing practices signaled that sector-specific tariff pressure remains a live policy tool. In Europe, the UK moved forward with tighter steel safeguards, including lower tariff-free quotas and a higher over-quota duty, while the EU opened a new three-month consultation process with China to address trade imbalances, export controls, market access, and import surges. India’s comments on a potential U.S. trade deal further underscored that tariff positioning remains a core negotiating objective for major manufacturing economies. Overall, the week reflected a global trade environment defined by tariff volatility, industrial protection, supply chain security, and selective bilateral dealmaking rather than broad liberalization.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: spot rates are averaging in the mid-$7,000, with standard standalone containers tracking between $7,500 and $7,900.That represents a dramatic increase from levels seen just a few months ago, when West Coast rates were closer to the $1,600–$1,700 range.

CEA to USEC: rates lane has climbed to nearly $9,000, with inland and Midwest movements pushing past the $10,000 threshold. Space remains tight despite some reported capacity increases of roughly 6%–7%, and those additions do not appear large enough to meaningfully relieve the market.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,950 from China to US West Coast and $6,650 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Imminent July General Rate Increases (GRIs): Carriers are testing the market’s upper limits by introducing an additional $1,500 GRI for the first half of July. This triggered a massive, last-minute rush at the end of June as shippers scrambled to push containers out of China to avoid the premium.
• Aggressive Inventory Front-Loading: Importers have fundamentally compressed the typical multi-month peak season. Fearing prolonged volatility, businesses pulled forward orders they did not immediately need, clogging current vessel capacity with goods destined for sales cycles months down the line.

Looking Ahead:

The market is rapidly approaching a critical breaking point. Because current rate structures are no longer a true reflection of baseline market conditions, a noticeable drop in volume is projected for July. Many general importers possess roughly three to four weeks of safety stock and are expected to pause bookings for the first half of the month to see if rates soften. The primary exception will be manufacturing supply chains, which are forced to absorb these stiff premiums to avoid halting production lines.

While a two-week shipping strike or buyer strike from importers could force an adjustment , a significant price correction (such as a drop back down to the $5,500 range) is highly unlikely in the near term. Because core geopolitical disruptions remain active and carriers are intent on squeezing every penny out of the current capacity crunch, spot rates are expected to grind out at these elevated levels through the end of July.

In the News:

NY Post: US tariff refunds rush into company accounts ahead of deadline this week: ‘Never thought this day would come’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/29/business/us-tariff-refunds-rush-into-company-accounts-ahead-of-deadline-this-week-never-thought-this-day-would-come/

The Business Journals: Mitigating disruption: How will evolving global trade dynamics impact my business?
https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2026/06/29/mitigating-disruption-global-trade-impact-business.html

Bloomberg: Global Trade Braces for Another Period of Policy Uncertainty
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-29/global-trade-uncertainty

Reuters: Why Trump's tariffs had plenty of bark, but limited bite
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/why-trumps-tariffs-had-plenty-bark-limited-bite-2026-06-30/

The Guardian: EU halves duty-free steel quota but UK and other partners given better rate
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/30/eu-duty-free-steel-quota-uk-rate-brexit

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Hello Everyone,

I just wanted to get grasp on what most people are deciding to do about the entries that are already past 80 day liquidation but within the 180 day protest window. When I contacted US CUSTOMS and ask if I should file a protest, they literally just say "wait for phase 3". Roll the dice and pray phase 3 will roll out liquidated entries? or File protest and go though extra paper work in the off chance that there might be a light at the end of the legal tunnel?

The Lead:

Last week, global trade policy activity centered on efforts to stabilize key economic relationships while new tariff and enforcement risks continued to develop. The European Parliament approved the EU-US tariff agreement, helping preserve a 15% tariff framework for most EU exports to the United States while expanding access for U.S. industrial, agricultural, and seafood products. At the same time, the EU and UK prepared for a July summit aimed at easing post-Brexit trade frictions, particularly in food and agricultural goods. In North America, the United States and Mexico advanced USMCA review discussions covering rules of origin, steel, aluminum, autos, agriculture, labor, and economic security. However, tensions also increased as USTR launched a Section 301 investigation into Germany’s pharmaceutical pricing policies, raising the possibility of future trade retaliation. In Asia, the United States and India moved toward further trade negotiations, with India emphasizing the importance of reaching a deal quickly to strengthen its tariff position relative to regional competitors. Overall, the week reflected a mix of negotiated tariff management, regional trade realignment, and targeted enforcement actions shaping global trade policy.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

CEA to USWC: Rates remained elevated this week, with standard market levels still pushing above $6,000 per container. However, carriers and agents are increasingly making deal or promotional rate structures available, allowing some shipments to move closer to the $5,700–$5,800 range when volume, allocation, or carrier-ratio requirements can be met.

CEA to USEC: market appears broadly unchanged week over week, with no major new rate movement called out this week. The overall pricing environment remains firm, but the most visible competitive pressure is showing up on the West Coast, where high spot levels are beginning to push some importers to pause or delay non-urgent cargo.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,315 from China to US West Coast and $6,600 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• End-of-Month Volume Depletion: As June comes to a close, the initial wave of urgent peak-season cargo has already sailed. The remaining leftover volume in the market is less time-sensitive, leaving forwarders fighting harder over a smaller pool of active shippers.
• Stricter Carrier Ratio Deals: To guarantee vessel occupancy while capitalizing on high spot rates, carriers are tying low, fixed-contract space (~$3,000) to standard market-rate space. These ratios have become significantly tougher for forwarders, escalating from a 1:1 requirement to 1:3, 1:4, or even 1:5, effectively dragging the blended deal price up closer to the standard spot market.
• Aggressive Forwarder Competition: Because space is tight but active customer volume is pausing, freight forwarders are aggressively passing these blended carrier deals directly to shippers. Profit margins are being squeezed as forwarders use these discounts defensively to prevent clients from cross-shopping.

Looking Ahead:

The market is likely to stay firm into July, with continued pressure on space and rates. However, the tone is shifting. Importers are no longer simply accepting higher prices across the board; more are weighing whether to ship now or wait. That customer hesitation is forcing forwarders to be more strategic with deal rates, relationship management, and urgency-based messaging.

If July brings another general rate increase or further tightening, the current “ship now before it gets worse” message may continue to be effective. But if customer pushback grows, we could see more selective discounting or promotional structures used to protect volume, even while headline market rates remain elevated.

In the News:

• WSJ: See the Global Chokepoints That Carry Much of the World’s Trade https://www.wsj.com/world/see-the-global-chokepoints-that-carry-much-of-the-worlds-trade-9683adf2
• CNBC: Bruegel’s Wolff says G7 seeks global trade rebalancing https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/06/16/g7-leaders-looking-to-achieve-a-global-trade-rebalancing--bruegel.html
• Bloomberg: Trump’s New US Tariff Wall Shakes Up Winners, Losers Lineup https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-22/trump-builds-a-new-us-tariff-wall-in-shakeup-of-winners-losers
• Reuters: India seeks tariff advantage over peers in push to finalise US trade deal https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-seeks-tariff-advantage-over-peers-push-finalise-us-trade-deal-2026-06-22/
• ABC News: China Shock 2.0: Surging Chinese exports threaten Europe's economy, raising concern https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/china-shock-20-surging-chinese-exports-threaten-europes-133910524

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https://www.freightright.com/news/carriers-hold-firm-on-fuel-surcharges-despite-emerging-us-iran-peace-plans-tfx-update-wk-june-15-2026

The Lead:

The mid-point of June 2026 demonstrated that the world is moving away from broad, sweeping border surcharges toward highly targeted, regulatory trade walls. The United States actively advanced its strategy to replace expiring emergency surcharges with permanent Section 301 labor tariffs, while successfully utilizing massive Section 232 pharmaceutical duties to force international drug manufacturers into onshoring commitments. Simultaneously, the European Union acted to protect its internal market on two fronts: by closing the de minimis loophole with a new €3 flat fee on low-value online imports, and by advancing the Turnberry trade deal to secure lasting tariff peace with Washington. Ultimately, the week proved that the global economy is functioning within a highly legalistic centralized trade architecture in the West, where access to prime consumer markets requires meeting strict labor, safety, and supply-chain origin mandates. 

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The transpacific ocean freight market has officially entered a higher pricing bracket, confirming the expiration of $6,000 spot rates. Over the past week, ocean freight rates from China to both North American coasts experienced a steep climb, driven by heavy volume increases in the first half of June. 

CEA to USWC: Spot rates have broken past previous thresholds and are now officially confirmed in the low $6,000s per FEU. 

CEA to USEC: Rates to the East Coast have pushed even higher, settling firmly into the mid-$7000s per FEU. 

For comparison, Gulf Coast rates are mirroring the East Coast in the mid-$7,000s, while inland moves to the Midwest (e.g., Chicago) have reached $8,000 to $8,400. 

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $5,750 from China to US West Coast and $6,400 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

https://preview.redd.it/lx7oic1vio7h1.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=90803209c8fcc40efb159b0c4046715792811da8

https://preview.redd.it/diue3ioxio7h1.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=89e418d8fd3529f5f2b50db7ddebeb152241100c

https://preview.redd.it/ca150kszio7h1.png?width=995&format=png&auto=webp&s=690da9d7f5a892b4a5de8199f6c3c80cc814ed59

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

• Peak Season Front-Loading: Carriers reported a significant spike in cargo volumes during the first half of June. This surge is largely attributed to shippers front-loading their inventory early to avoid peak-season bottlenecks, which directly triggered carrier GRI implementations for the second half of the month.  
• Port Congestion & Rolled Cargo: Ongoing backlog from previous weeks continues to choke the network. This legacy congestion has triggered heavy rolling of bookings, severely degrading schedule reliability. 
• Strict Dynamic Quoting: Due to the daily volatility in space availability, standard quotes are no longer guaranteed. Logistics providers are forcing a subject to roll and availability clause, as space secured one day is often entirely gone by the next.

 

Looking Ahead:

The immediate outlook points to sustained upward pressure and prolonged volatility. Shippers should abandon expectations for a quick rate correction; carriers have just successfully pushed rates into the $6,000–$7,000+ range and will be highly resistant to lowering them, likely citing ongoing market uncertainty to justify keeping current fuel surcharges and base rates intact.

Furthermore, because booking backlogs are already stretching lead times out significantly, with some agents quoting the beginning of July as the earliest available space, shippers must plan and book several weeks in advance to secure equipment and vessel space. Even if the geopolitical situation in the Middle East stabilizes and a formal peace deal is signed by the end of the week, the lag in carrier operational adjustments means the earliest the market would see any tangible impact or relief on fuel surcharges would be late next week or early July. 

In the News:

WSJ: The Global Economy Is Threatened Again by Trade Imbalances
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-global-economy-is-threatened-again-by-trade-imbalances-b996bc00 

NY Post: Trump warns France in exclusive interview with The Post: Kill tech tax or face 100% wine tariffs: ‘I have no choice’
https://nypost.com/2026/06/15/business/trump-warns-france-in-exclusive-interview-with-the-post-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs/ 

The Guardian: Me, worry? For US small businesses, Trump’s tariffs are now a non-issue
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/jun/14/small-business-trump-tariffs 

Reuters: Macron maintains France will not bend to Trump over digital tax
https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-warns-france-kill-tech-tax-or-face-100-wine-tariffs-ny-post-reports-2026-06-15/ 

The Economist: A trade war between the EU and China seems inevitable
https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/06/11/a-trade-war-between-the-eu-and-china-seems-inevitable 

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The Lead:

The first week of June 2026 saw a transition from chaotic, emergency trade restrictions to deeply structured, long-term industrial protectionism. By unveiling a two-tiered, 60-nation Section 301 tariff framework based on forced labor criteria, the US successfully engineered a more durable, court-proof legal vehicle to replace its temporary balance-of-payments surcharges before they expire in July.

This aggressive US move toward a highly regulated, centralized trade architecture forced major partners into structural pivots: the European Union finalized a critical concession pact with Washington to secure its baseline 10% preference while simultaneously enacting a fierce new domestic steel quota regime to lock out Chinese market dumping. Ultimately, the week proved that while a multipolar landscape continues to operate elsewhere through localized compromises like the new US-China Board of Trade, global supply chains are facing a permanently higher cost baseline dictated by strict national labor, environment, and metal-origin compliance walls.

This Week’s Ocean, Air & Freight Markets

China-US Ocean Freight Market:

The container shipping market is experiencing substantial week-over-week rate increases, catching many importers by surprise as prices climb significantly. Current ocean freight rates are rapidly escalating past previous baselines .

CEA to USWC: Rates have surged from the high $4,000+, nearly $5,000, and are explicitly projected to climb over $6,000+ per container.

CEA to USEC: Rates are following a similar upward trajectory and are expected to surpass $7,000+ per container.

Freight Right’s Lowest Rate indicators are finding that importers can find spot rates as low as $4,450 from China to US West Coast and $5,900 from China to US East Coast. Talk to your freight forwarder about options available to you.

Read more about the state of the ocean freight spot market with Freight Right’s TrueFreight Index.

What Happened This Past Week

The Traffic Jam Backlog in China: Persistent blank sailings have triggered severe cargo backlogs at Chinese export hubs. When a carrier cancels a voyage, hundreds of containers are rolled to the following week, compounding volumes, generating a traffic jam effect, and triggering multi-day communication delays just to confirm bookings.

Pre-July Tariff Anxiety and Front-Loading: Importers are grappling with immense confusion and marketing anxiety regarding impending July tariff changes. To avoid recalculation headaches and potential margin erosion from unexpected 20% to 30% adjustments, businesses are aggressively front-loading their fall and holiday season inventories ahead of schedule.

Overlapping Demand Cycles: The unseasonal surge of front-loaded holiday goods is directly colliding with the traditional, non-negotiable peak importing window for summer and outdoor seasonal products, overwhelming available vessel space.

Looking Ahead:

The current market strain represents an early, highly compressed peak season rather than the traditional timeline typically seen later in the year. This elevated rate environment is expected to persist through the remainder of June and throughout July, as ocean carriers are highly unlikely to voluntarily relinquish their pricing leverage.

A traditional, prolonged peak season spanning August through October appears unlikely under current macroeconomic conditions. Instead, relief will likely hinge on two primary triggers later this summer: Front-loaders completely depleting their advanced supply chain volumes by late July, causing export demand to drop; and carriers systematically restoring blanked vessels back into active service rotations.

Once vessel space opens up, carriers will be forced to downwardly adjust their pricing levels to attract volume, potentially pointing toward market normalization by August or September.

In the News:

Bloomberg: Trump’s Tariff Wall Takes a Curious Woke Turn

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-06-08/trump-and-tariffs

NYTimes: Trump Administration Turns to a New Rationale to Justify Old Tariffs

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/03/business/economy/trump-tariffs-forced-labor.html

CNBC: Trump’s trade war has a new target: forced labor. The case behind it is far from simple

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/09/trump-tariffs-trade-china-forced-labor.html

Reuters: Signs global trade in goods is starting to slow, WTO says

https://www.reuters.com/business/signs-global-trade-goods-starting-slow-wto-says-2026-06-05/

Financial Times: Donald Trump’s replacement tariff wall continues to rise

https://www.ft.com/content/ed7c8cb6-821e-47f3-80c0-463f4bca6e3e?syn-25a6b1a6=1

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For high-growth importers, customs classification often stays in the background until an audit, tariff bill, or margin squeeze exposes a recurring error. In categories such as specialized furniture, medical equipment, dental chairs, salon chairs, and treatment tables, the difference between a generic furniture classification and a more precise specialized-equipment classification can materially change the landed cost.

The key issue is often the distinction between HTS 9402 and HTS 9403. Classification is a technical determination above all else. HTS 9402 generally covers medical, surgical, dental, or veterinary furniture, as well as certain barber or similar chairs with rotating, reclining, and elevating movements. HTS 9403 generally covers other furniture and parts.

That distinction can matter sharply for China-origin goods. Many products classified under 9403 may be subject to additional Section 301 duties when the applicable Chapter 99 provision applies. A product correctly classified under 9402 may have a different base duty rate and may avoid a Section 301 surcharge, depending on the exact subheading, country of origin, product construction, and any applicable exclusions.

When an importer or broker defaults to a broad 9403 classification for convenience, the importer may pay unnecessary duties on every entry. For a product with a $1,000 declared customs value, a mistaken 25% additional duty can add $250 per unit before considering brokerage fees, financing costs, margin compression, or downstream pricing pressure. Over hundreds or thousands of units, a classification error can become a structural margin problem rather than a one-time customs issue.

HTS 9402 vs. 9403 Differences

In the furniture industry, for example, the distinction between "standard" furniture and "specialized equipment" dictates whether an entry is subject to a 0% duty rate or a 25% surcharge.

Specifically, electric or hydraulic furniture designed for medical, dental, or specialized salon use typically falls under HTS 9402. Unlike general residential or office furniture classified under HTS 9403, these specialized items are often duty-free or exempt from Section 301 remedies.

When a broker defaults to HTS 9403 for convenience, the importer pays "duty on duty." If an importer raises their retail price to cover a 25% tariff, the transaction value reported on the customs entry increases. Because duties are calculated as a percentage of this declared value, the total tax obligation rises in tandem with the price hike. For a product with a $1,000 COGS, a shift from 0% to 25% duty doesn't just cost $250; it often forces a retail adjustment that can snowball the total landed cost well beyond the initial tariff estimate.

Importer of Record (IOR) and Refund Eligibility

A critical hurdle for Canadian and overseas exporters is the legal designation of the Importer of Record (IOR). If you operate as a Foreign IOR, you retain the legal standing to claim duty drawbacks and refunds. However, if the end customer is listed as the importer of record on official entry documentation, any recovered funds technically belong to them.

To verify your standing, you must audit your 7501s. These documents confirm:

• Who is legally liable for the duties paid.
• Which HTS codes were utilized for each line item.
• Whether a valid Power of Attorney (POA) is on file, as operating without one is a regulatory violation.

Prior Disclosure and the Protest Window

There is a common misconception that correcting HTS errors invites an invasive audit. In practice, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) incentivizes "Prior Disclosure." By voluntarily identifying classification errors and tendering unpaid duties (or requesting refunds for overpayment) before an investigation begins, importers can mitigate or eliminate many administrative penalties.

While the standard window for an administrative refund is approximately 314 days, options remain after liquidation. A formal protest can be filed within standard regulatory timelines to contest a classification. Furthermore, if broader trade challenges are successful in court, even older entries may become eligible for duty recovery.

Operational Tradeoffs: DDP vs. DAP

Ecommerce operators often prefer Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) to streamline the customer experience, but this model often forces the importer to bake duty costs into the retail price. This inflates the declared transaction value.

Alternatively, a Delivered at Place (DAP) model, where the customer pays duties at checkout or upon delivery, can lower the reported transaction value at the border. While DAP can negatively impact conversion rates, the reduction in the duty base can significantly improve the net margin on high-value goods subject to Section 301.

Actionable Recommendations for Importers

Conduct a Technical Tariff Audit: Compare your specific product functionality and technical specifications against existing customs rulings.Moving from a general 9403 code to a specialized 9402 code can immediately recover 25% of your landed cost.

Access ACE Data: Do not rely solely on broker reports. Register for an Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) account to pull three years of historical entry data directly from CBP. This is the only way to see exactly what was filed under your Importer Number.

Evaluate Pricing Structures: If you are currently subsidizing tariffs, test a pricing model that breaks out duties as a separate line item at checkout. This may allow for a lower declared "price paid or payable" to customs, reducing the total duty burden.

File Prior Disclosures: If misclassification is identified, work with a trade consultant or independent broker to file a voluntary disclosure. This protects your compliance record while establishing a path to recover overpaid duties.

Review Customs POAs: Ensure you have current, signed Powers of Attorney for all entities acting on your behalf. This is a baseline requirement for maintaining the legal right to manage your own entries and refunds.