u/RadianMay

Passing tracks/layout is based on 2026 CAHSR Business Plan. This allows 1 express and 1 local every hour. In this scenario I made assumptions that led to a 4h16m travel time SF-LA express, but this could be shortened to <4h10m by delaying local CalTrain services. I wasn’t prepared to do this because I really like the current CalTrain schedule, which this largely preserves.

Full video can be seen on YouTube

Obviously, this is greatly simplified, and omits many platforms and stub tracks at the big stations, as well as yards. The main goal was to visualise the passing loops, and understand how much track sharing and flat junctions there will be under this plan.

The 2026 Business plan was unclear on some details, most notably what actually happens between Sun Valley and LA, where CAHSR and local services now have to share track, but some vague references to passing tracks are made. As a result LAU station is assumed different from the LinkUS plan with CAHSR platforms in the middle to allow terminating services due to lack of rail/rail grade separation and track sharing.

Otherwise 2040+ LinkUS is assumed, with Antelope Valley through running to Perris Valley, and Ventura County through running onto Orange County.

If Metrolink wants to run half hourly AV/PV and VC/OC, there would be need total separation from freight as fitting all the services on a single track pair without rail/rail grade separation is difficult. More investment must be made to ensure a reliable and high quality service. Electrification will help by speeding up these services, and allowing for more reliability as well as more frequency.

Caltrain is assumed to have minimal changes except for new depot and platforms, still terminating at 4th and King and at 79mph, as said in the business plan. Without level boarding and slow local services every half hour, without a timed overtake, there will be a 56 min travel time from SF-SJ. With a timed overtake in Millbrae, this can be reduced to around 47 min with 79mph speeds, but local Caltrain will be slowed 8-9 mins, assuming 3 min minimum headways.

As a result, combined with the passing tracks in the Central Valley plus adequate padding, travel times SF-LA of 4:15 seems likely, with 4:07 possible with Caltrain overtake.

These slides were mostly presented in the ILHSRA’s meeting virtual meeting yesterday. Slides and presentation are not yet uploaded to their website.

The last photo is my attempt to quantify such ridership using “transportation density”, the average number of people who pass through a given point on the railway per day, averaged out through all inter-station segments. This provides us a good basis for revenue and costs, as this measures intensity of passenger demand across a whole line without being biased by line length.

2300 is very low for a high speed line, lower than the 3100 seen on the Hokkaido Shinkansen in 2022. This is low enough to cause an operational loss (line 19). It currently runs less than 1tph, averaging around 13x 10 car trains a day. Illinois should expect to run 4 car trains for the expected demand, perhaps hourly at peak, and every 2 hours midday and later at night.

Indeed, Illinois expects to pay a subsidy to maintain service on the line, even under a 8 train a day scenario (last slide). Most high speed lines are operationally profitable due to high ridership, but these forecasts really give me pause about the viability of this project.

Unfortunately this presentation does not give me a lot of optimism for the prospect of HSR in IL. It is possible that the numbers are too low however, as they did not include transfers from the existing Ilini service, of which the HSR will take over part of the route. Indeed if construction costs in the US was 1/3 of what it is, and operational costs were lower(like Spain), this very much could work out. But under the current environment, I don’t think IL would want to fund this.

https://youtu.be/6DTF01QizRQ?si=aHhOxy6ZziCdAwOa

After watching this video by Norman Foster I can’t help but think that even though the building might have been inspired by the step backs commonly found in New York, the urban form that this building promotes is completely opposite of Art Deco skyscrapers like the Empire State Building. Those buildings met the ground at human scale, with a ~5 storey podium that gave some feeling of enclosure, and that fit into the surrounding context, providing retail that enhance the urban streetscape. Here, a giant concrete, plantless plaza is created, with bollards to block off traffic (and imaginary terrorist threats?) as if it was a square to a cathedral of banking. It is completely alien to the area.

He then talks about how “connected” the building is, by emphasising the central corridor that connects Park Ave and Madison Ave, yet this is only accessible for the employees of the building, being behind access gates. Evidently Foster understands better, because the HSBC in Hong Kong offers an actually useful connection route under the building between two major roads.

Then there is talk about the “Exchange” which is the “social heart” of the building, being the sky lobby for JP Morgan, with attached event spaces and cafeteria. This again shows us the insularity of the design and evidently of its primary client, as employees no longer have to interact with the outside world on their breaks, instead being insulated in their own cocoon. With architecture like this reinforcing the antisocial behaviour of these firms, it is no wonder that there is a growing sense of civic detachment and fragmentation.

I think these “starchitects“ need more integrity instead of bowing to the megalomanic demands of these private institutions that grow more and more powerful every day.

This is effectively now the new urban center of Amsterdam.

The problem is not that freeway median stations are bad, is that in America there is a lack of regional transit orientated development plans. With good urban form, strong coordinated planning, freeway median stations can be transformed into great places with great walkability and amenities.

Now train traffic is so heavy that they’re burying the freeway (for more lanes) and adding more platform tracks, while creating a nice plaza in front of the station. Suffering from success! Perhaps one day these TODs can be so successful as to require the burying of the freeway in front of the station.