A ilusão do tempo de espera para o visto EB-3 para trabalhadores não qualificados (EW3): por que o Boletim de Vistos está ocultando um acúmulo real de 10 a 15 anos (Análise de dados do ano fiscal de 2026)
Hi everyone. While working on data tracking and scraping for my project, PermQueue, I ended up doing a deep dive into the latest USCIS I-140 receipt tables (specifically the FY2026 Q1 report) for the EB-3 Unskilled (Other Workers / EW3) category.
What I found is completely disconnected from the current Visa Bulletin, and I wanted to see if anyone here has reached the same conclusion.
A lot of agencies and lawyers are currently selling the EW3 process with a "4 to 5 year wait time" based on the current Visa Bulletin dates (which are hovering around late 2021 / early 2022). But the math for recent applicants paints a terrifying picture.
Here is the breakdown of the impending "wall":
The Surge in Approvals: Looking at the All Countries data for EW3, there were massive spikes recently. From 2023 to the start of FY2026, USCIS approved over 44,000 I-140 petitions for Unskilled Workers. (If you include 2022, it’s over 53,000).
The Multiplier Effect: The annual visa cap counts individuals, not petitions. Every I-140 usually brings dependents (spouse/children). Even if we use a highly conservative multiplier of 2.2 visas per approved petition, those 44,000 approvals equal roughly 96,800 to 100,000+ people needing a Green Card.
The Annual Cap: The "Other Workers" category is strictly capped by law at 10,000 visas globally per year.
The Reality Check:
If you have ~100,000 people fighting for 10,000 spots per year, that is mathematically a 10-year backlog just to clear the 2023-2025 applications. If the multiplier is closer to 2.5 or 3, we are looking at 12 to 15 years.
Why hasn't the Visa Bulletin retrogressed massively yet?
Because it's a lagging indicator. The State Department is currently issuing visas to people who applied in 2021, before this massive 2023-2025 wave of approvals hit. Once the bulletin reaches late 2022 and 2023 priority dates, it will slam into this wall of 100,000+ applicants and inevitably stagnate for years.
For anyone applying today, the 4.5-year estimate seems mathematically impossible.
Am I missing a massive variable here, or is the industry just turning a blind eye to this impending retrogression/stagnation to keep selling EW3 spots? Would love to hear your thoughts.