u/RichIndependence8930

The 24 reapers imo are the most tactically impactful because that platform is what the USA was probably nearly exclusively using to go TEL hunting. The US had strong air superiority over Iran, but they still seemingly had a network of short-medium range air defenses operating mostly using infrared and optical (or both) guidance. I think that, paired with the dust/haze/rain, made the USA decide that it was safer to make a Reaper toss laser guided munitions instead of a manned aircraft since using laser guided munitions in non-favorable conditions can greatly impact their performance, namely in the way that the targeting pod simply has to be closer to the target to get an accurate hit.

So something guiding an LGM would have to be say, only 5-10 miles away from its target instead of 15 miles or more. Which is pretty risky to get a manned craft to do unless you are up against an opponent that has no way of hitting said loitering manned aircraft that might be operating at 20k feet and 10 miles away from its target instead of 40k feet and 20 miles away from its target because of the dust/fog/rain/haze.

Another factor is the actual cloud ceiling itself. If its dusty/hazy/cloudy etc from 10k feet to 30k feet, the Reapers might be "forced" to operate below 10k feet to get a good paint on the target with the pod laser.

The USA did not know when Iran would be launching, a key factor in this I believe. So they stationed reapers to loiter and catch the TELs once they were exposed.

I think most manned craft in Iran were more or less tossing JDAM ERs or BLU's from 50k feet or so well outside of the range of most of Irans short to medium range air defenses. The reapers were the ones doing the TEL hunting by and large loitering around the missile cities for hours on end.

So if Iran can keep downing the reapers (not in production anymore) they can save their TELs a good bit of trouble.

To add to this, Iran has a passive radar system called the Alim

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alim_radar_system

That is probably being greatly used (along with electronic receivers) for search duty, more or less gathering location data to triangulate the location and even height of aircraft over their skies. A dozen or so Alims, paired with electronic receivers across Iran, would be a pretty good way to triangulate the location of things in their skies.

And if you are the IRGC, you are going to assume any jets in your skies are enemy jets. The 318 loitering missile imo is trained to track any and all exhaust and any jets optically, there is no need to have it trained to distinguish an F35 from an F18 or an SU24 from an F18, Iran knew their skies would be pretty much solely populated by US/Israeli aircraft in any major war with them. So that probably saved that program a good bit of work.

Its overall an EW suite that is very catered to fighting against the USA, who wants to send a HARM at anything they can

Articles and analysis range from 7k-10k USD to all the way to 70k. The following articles argue for the lower end of the price.

https://legrandcontinent.eu/es/2026/03/14/el-coste-real-de-produccion-de-un-dron-shahed-136-podria-rondar-los-3-500-euros/ (main write up, but paywalled)

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/iran-shahed-drones-reshaping-economics-071404927.html?guccounter=1 (pretty much situates its arguments on the above paywalled article)

https://www.rfi.fr/fr/podcasts/aujourd-hui-l-%C3%A9conomie/20260319-pourquoi-les-drones-iraniens-shahed-136-co%C3%BBtent-cinq-fois-moins-cher-que-les-drones-am%C3%A9ricains

https://www.tehrantimes.com/print/521986/US-faces-flak-at-home-for-testing-copy-of-Iranian-drone (Iranian source)

The key differentiator in price seems to be how much Iran is paying for certain components and what components are going into certain drones, and their domestic industry costs and efficiency due to time in production. Jam resistant components are higher price, of course. Optical guidance paired with GPS guidance will also increase the price.

There is another argument made by these articles and similar ones that claim the Western analysis is confusing cost for a Russian produced Geranium 2 (Shahed-136 more or less) for the cost to produce a Shahed 136 within Iran.

So what I am figuring is, the price for Iran to produce a Shahed 136 depends greatly on whether or not you believe they are struggling hard to gain access to certain components. The sanctions play a role here, but so does Russia in negating the effect of said sanctions. Russia has a lot of domestic manufacturing specifically for drone components. Also, the basic Shahed 136 devoid of jamming resistant equipment or optical sensors is pretty much entirely made with off the shelf components.

The fiberglass body, lawnmower engine, and explosives used in the Shahed are a fraction of the cost, undoubtedly. So whether one is to believe the IRGC can make a Shahed 136 for 10k or not depends on whether or not you believe Russia/China are able to fulfill certain orders to a price that analysts are either not putting credence into or not taking into account.

So overall, the arguments for higher price per unit (20-50k) are more or less entirely down to sanctions. The arguments for a lower price are more or less entirely down to said sanctions not being able to inhibit Iran enough from procuring components from Russia.

Iran's drone production is very mature and streamlined. They, unlike Ukraine especially, nearly exclusively produce one kind of one way suicide drone, the Shahed 136. And have been doing so for over a decade. Its a very mature program and very mature supply/production chain. They also have much lower wages than Russia does for their manufacturing sector.

The USA was able to produce about 200 LUCAS drones for 35k a pop. The USA is a far higher profit-orientated MIC with much higher wages for workers in said production and development. To me, the claims that Iran cannot produce a Shahed 136 (base model, no jamming resistant components and no optical guidance) for less than 35k are bordering non-credible. I think there are just as many arguments to be made that favor them being able to produce them for 10-15k as there are that claim they cost 30-50k.

Thoughts?

Let's see how well the interceptor rationing goes. If they are planning on staying in the Gulf, they will potentially have to deal with assaults every day without a capacity to restock due to a lot of the bases in the area being out of operation.

Also, the US Navy still has no restock at sea capacity for those big ass SM series interceptors.

BTW, this Ukrainian unit who filmed this literally has a Sonnenrad as their unit emblem. Top right. Yeesh.