u/SashSail

Quick update from my last post here 5 days ago. Tracker is now at 34 active or watch pins across 29 countries.

What's new since I last posted:

• South Asia, East Africa, Latin America added (had been underweighting these): Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Philippines, Ethiopia, Kenya, South Sudan, Bolivia, Cuba
• Slovenia now Day 58 of nationwide rationing (50 L/day private, 200 L commercial)
• Hungary Day 72 of foreign-plate two-tier pump pricing
• PCK Schwedt refinery Day 19 of Kazakh feedstock cut
• UK Day +15 past the jet-fuel cliff edge — still no NOTAM
• New dedicated EU page: /shortages/eu/

Live map + country pages (US, UK, CA, AU, EU): https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/

The dashed line shows projected fill at the current 7-day average injection pace of ~2,088 GWh/day, against the 90% Nov 1 statutory target and the relaxed 80% flex target the EU adopted in 2025. Annotations mark the Feb 28 Strait of Hormuz closure and today's position in the "MODERATE" band per our seasonal threshold framework.

Australia's fuel situation isn't easing despite three months of intervention. Diesel is still $2.75–$3.00+/L, around 120 stations are still reporting outages (down from a 500–600 March peak but persistent), the 2026–27 federal budget allocates $10–14.8B to a Fuel Security & Resilience package, and NSW Farmers is warning of potential 50% food price spikes if diesel disruptions persist. We've tracked the global Hormuz-driven shortage cascade since the war began Feb 28, and as of today (May 14) Australia moves from our "watch" tier to our "shortage" tier.

Background — why Australia is exposed

Australia imports more than 90% of its refined fuel. Only two refineries remain operational: Ampol's Lytton (Brisbane) and Viva Energy's Geelong (Victoria). Together they cover under 20% of national demand. Australia is the only IEA member country that has not held the mandatory 90-day strategic reserve since 2012. That structural exposure is now meeting a sustained Strait-of-Hormuz-driven product squeeze that, per the IEA Oil Market Report published May 13, has stripped 12.8 mb/d of global supply since the war began and pushed inventories to draw at a record ~4 mb/d pace in March and April.

Where things stand (per latest DCCEEW dashboard + IBTimes "Crisis Deepens" report May 13)

• Petrol cover: ~44–46 days
• Diesel cover: ~33 days
• Jet fuel cover: ~30 days
• Stations reporting diesel outages: ~120 nationwide, concentrated NSW, Victoria, regional/rural
• Diesel retail: $2.75–$3.00+/L (vs ~$1.70 pre-conflict)
• Petrol retail: ~$1.93/L after 26 c/L excise relief (excise halved Apr 1 – Jun 30)
• Off pre-conflict peak (ACCC May 8 report): diesel –25%, petrol –30% in the 5 largest cities — relief flowing through, but baseline still elevated
• Geelong refinery's RCCU (which produces most of the country's high-octane petrol) still offline until June following the 15 April fire

Government response so far

• Fuel excise halved Apr 1 – Jun 30; heavy vehicle road user charge suspended 3 months
• $7.5B Fuel & Fertiliser Security Facility
• $3.2–3.7B Australian Fuel Security Reserve (govt-owned, up to 1 billion litres of diesel + aviation fuel)
• +450 ML additional diesel + 100 ML additional jet fuel secured under new Strategic Reserve powers
• 61 fuel tankers en route; 4.5B litres of crude/diesel/jet/petrol scheduled to arrive in the next 4 weeks
• MSO targets being raised to 50 days for diesel and jet
• ACCC has authorised fuel-sector supply-coordination collaboration
• 2016 emergency rationing plan still on standby but not invoked. National Fuel Security Plan currently at Level 1; Levels 3–4 (rationing) "under consideration"

Why it matters on the ground

• NSW Farmers Federation warning of potential 50% food price increases if diesel disruptions persist (sowing, harvesting, distribution, fertiliser)
• NSW Farmers president Xavier Martin (via SBS): farmers running out of fuel; rural bulk suppliers reporting they are "dry as well, with no more fuel coming"
• Trucking associations: heavy vehicle operators facing cash-flow strain; calling for excise relief beyond Jun 30
• Defence/energy analyst John Blackburn: a 20% global supply reduction could worsen shortages by late May if the Middle East conflict drags on

For comparison — New Zealand is NOT in the same boat

NZ remains at Phase 1 ("Watchful") of its National Fuel Response Plan 2026 per MBIE's latest stocks update. Stocks above MSO: 52.8 days petrol / 46.1 days diesel / 49.1 days jet. 12 fuel ships on the water as of May 10. Refiner crude contracts locked through Jul/Aug; supply diversified to US, Mexico, Oman, Latin America, Canada. PM Luxon called Phase 4 (rationing) "highly unlikely" at the May 11 press conference, though the framework (per-transaction pump limits, business spot checks under the Petroleum Demand Restraint Act 1981) is now formalised as standby.

So: Australia operationally meets shortage criteria — persistent retail outages, sub-IEA-minimum reserves, multi-billion-dollar emergency intervention, food-supply warnings. NZ doesn't yet.

The bigger picture — Australia joins 22 countries we currently track as active shortages

Australia's upgrade brings our active-shortage list to 22 alerts across 19 single-country pins (plus 1 multi-country pin covering Lufthansa Group's six EU hubs), with 7 more countries on watch — 26 unique countries affected overall.

Shortage tier (22 alerts): United States (Spirit Airlines wind-down, Day 13), Canada (Air Canada 10 transborder route suspensions YTD), United Kingdom (jet fuel rationing risk through summer), Germany (Druzhba pipeline north halt to PCK Schwedt), Italy (jet fuel shortage warnings + 66 cancellations May 12), Austria (Vienna VIE contingency planning), Hungary (foreign-plate price-cap regime, Day 67), Slovenia (50L/200L daily fuel rationing, Day 53), Ireland (jet/diesel route stress), India (international ATF +5.33% May 1), Hong Kong (HK Express 6% capacity cut + Cathay 2% cuts), Bangladesh (BPC reserves crisis, 71 of 143 power plants idle), Philippines (1-yr National Energy Emergency, Day 52), Pakistan (4-day government workweek, Day 67), Sri Lanka (QR-code petrol rationing, Day 61), Thailand (diesel peaked 50.54 THB/L, +69% from February), Ethiopia (rationing Day 45, diesel halved, Tigray fully suspended), Kenya (EPRA record price hike Apr 15, 20% of stations short), Cuba (jet fuel rationing, Day 8), plus the new Australia upgrade and Lufthansa Group's pan-European hub cuts.

Watch tier (7): Egypt (9pm retail closure mandate), Myanmar (odd-even license plates), Vietnam (gig-worker crisis), Laos (40% of fuel stations closed), Japan (refuelling restrictions notifying carriers), Nepal (NOC fortnightly losses Rs 10.21B), New Zealand (Phase 1 Watchful as above).

The Asia + Africa cluster is the genuinely under-reported piece — Western coverage has heavily focused on European aviation cancellations while South Asian and East African consumer-side rationing has been more acute.

Sources

Primary Australia/NZ:

• IBTimes Australia (13 May 2026): Australia Fuel Crisis Deepens in May 2026
• DCCEEW: Securing Australia's fuel supply
• PM&C: Public information on fuel supply
• ACCC Weekly Fuel Price Monitoring Report (8 May)
• 2026–27 Federal Budget (Chalmers, 12 May)
• SBS Australia: NSW Farmers Xavier Martin quotes
• Australian Industry Group: Fuel Supply and Supply Chain Watch
• HNGN (3 May): 61 tankers en route
• Xinhua (4 May): Viva Energy investor update — Geelong RCCU restart pushed to June
• MBIE NZ: Fuel stocks update
• 1News NZ (11 May): revised Phase 4 framework press conference

Global context:

• IEA Oil Market Report May 2026 (13 May): "Strait Down — Stocks Draw"
• EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13 May)
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (12 May)
• Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, CNBC on Hormuz daily

Other shortage pins (selected): Daily Star Bangladesh, IEEFA, Kathmandu Post, PIA Philippines, DOE Philippines, Baker Institute, Atlantic Council, NUS ISAS, BBC Africa, Discovery Alert, Cathay press / AeroTime / TTG Asia, CNBC / Skift (Spirit), CBC (Air Canada), Newsweek / RTV Slovenia, fuel-prices.eu, IndexBox.

Full tracker: global-energy-flow.com/shortages — daily-updated global shortage map with per-country detail.

AP published satellite imagery analysis from Windward AI on May 8 showing an oil slick spreading west of Kharg Island — Iran's main crude export terminal handling the bulk of pre-war exports.

**Numbers:**

- ~71 km² Friday May 8 (down from ~95 km² peak Wednesday)

- ~80,000 bbl spilled since first detection May 5 per Windward CEO Ami Daniel

- Could reach UAE, Qatar, or Saudi shores within 2 weeks per Windward modelling

**The interesting part is what nobody is willing to say:**

- Pentagon was non-committal on whether US strikes caused it

- AP notes the imagery dates predate the May 7-8 US destroyer fire-exchange and tanker strikes

- Iran has not commented on origin

- Three plausible scenarios: (1) terminal malfunction during loading constraints under blockade conditions, (2) collateral damage from a strike not publicly acknowledged, (3) deliberate sabotage to create environmental pressure on Gulf states

**Why this matters for the supply picture:**

Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran's pre-war crude exports. Even a partial loading-system disruption there compounds the existing Hormuz blockade — Iranian crude that can't leave Kharg, can't transit Hormuz, and can't be processed domestically (refining capacity is constrained) effectively shuts in further. The ~166 tankers / 170 mbbl Kpler is tracking as stranded in the Persian Gulf already excludes Iranian-flagged vessels.

**Forward watch (next 2 weeks):**

- Whether the slick reaches Gulf state shores — that becomes a diplomatic event, not just an environmental one. UAE has been struck three times by Iranian missiles/drones in the last week; oil-slick contamination on UAE beaches would be the first non-kinetic Iranian-attributed harm to a Gulf state's territory.

- Whether Kharg loading resumes at scale or stays constrained

- Whether tank-tops at Kharg force additional shut-in (Kpler estimated up to 1.5 mb/day potential additional shut-in within 12-24 days at current rates, reported by Fortune May 2)

---

**Sources:** AP / Windward AI satellite imagery May 8 · Pentagon statement May 8 · Kpler tanker tracking via Fortune May 2 · UANI weekly tracker

I track the Strait of Hormuz crisis and downstream fuel impacts daily at global-energy-flow.com — happy to answer questions in comments.

Followup to my previous posts. Net shortage count moved 10 → 12 active + 3 watch since yesterday. Most of the change is on the European road-fuel side after I went back through the sources and reconciled what's actually in force vs what's old news.

**What changed since the last post:**

- ADDED Slovenia — 50L/day private + 200L/day commercial road-fuel rationing. First EU country to ration. In force since March 23, no revocation.

- ADDED Hungary — foreign-plate price-cap regime now Day 60. HU plates pay capped 595 HUF/L petrol; foreign plates pay full market rate.

- ADDED Ireland (watch) — April protests resolved by €505M govt package, but organisers signalling further action before the autumn budget. Munster forecourts most exposed.

- REMOVED Philippines (PAL/Cebu Pacific) — fresh April capacity data shows PH aviation +13.4% YoY (Cebu Pacific +20%, PAL adding North America). The previously-tracked May cut at MNL appears to have been superseded.

- UK strengthened — government FORMALLY confirmed slot-rule loosening May 4 (was "pending" yesterday). Goldman Sachs note May 6 flags UK as most-at-risk for jet fuel rationing summer 2026; EU jet fuel inventories projected <23-day IEA threshold in June.

**Currently active (jet fuel):**

- Nigeria (LOS, ABV) — Air Peace 3x weekly Abuja-London until July 1; NMDPRA price cap holding

- UK (LHR) — 111 May flights cut; slot rule formally loosened; Heathrow at 7-10 days bunkered

- Germany (FRA, MUC) — Lufthansa 20,000-flight cancellation programme through October

- Türkiye (IST) — Turkish Airlines suspending 18 international destinations May-Jun

- Vietnam (SGN) — VietJet -19.9%, Vietnam Airlines domestic suspensions through May

- Hong Kong (HKG) — Cathay 2% cuts from May 16, HK Express 6% from May 11 (this Sunday)

- US — Spirit Airlines wound down May 2 (Day 5), ~1.8M May seats cancelled, JetBlue absorbing FLL

- India — international ATF +5.33% effective May 1 (2nd consecutive monthly hike)

- Australia (Geelong refinery) — Viva Energy: production constrained 6+ weeks, RCCU offline until June

**Currently active (road fuel — Europe):**

- Slovenia — daily volume rationing (above)

- Hungary — foreign-plate price cap (above)

- Germany (PCK Schwedt) — Druzhba northern leg halt Day 7, ~17% feedstock cut

**Currently active (road fuel — rest of world):**

- Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Bangladesh — hard rationing

- India — LPG demand-side rationing, cylinder booking 21→25 days

- Japan — emergency reserves being drawn down

- Indonesia — 50 L/day cap

- Philippines — national energy emergency declared (road fuel side, separate from aviation)

- Egypt — govt vehicle fuel allowance cut 33%

- Australia — fuel excise halved

**Watch (haven't pinned but worth knowing):**

- Ireland — protest recurrence risk

- Japan airports — carrier refuelling restrictions, no NOTAM yet

- Australia — Geelong refinery output reduction

**Hormuz current state:** strait traffic at ~5% of pre-war baseline (-95% per Kpler / CNN / IMF Portwatch), updated from earlier -72% figure that came from GEF's own April 17-25 AIS observation window. Pakistan-mediated US-Iran MoU under review in Tehran; Iran response expected ~May 8. Trump cooled May 6 evening ("too soon" to sign + bombing threat). Brent rebounded to ~$102 today after May 6 -7.8% close at $101.27.

**Sources used for this update (multi-source cross-check, last 7 days unless noted):**

- Trading Economics, NBC News, CNBC, CBS News (May 6-7 — oil prices, Iran response window)

- Aviation Week / GOV.UK (May 4-5 — UK formal slot-rule confirmation)

- Fortune / OPIS (May 6 — Goldman Sachs UK rationing risk note + IEA 23-day threshold projections)

- Newsweek / RTV Slovenia / AOL (April-May — Slovenia rationing)

- Hungarian Conservative / Hungary Today / GlobalPetrolPrices (May 4 — HU foreign-plate cap)

- Irish Times (May 2 — Ireland protest resurgence signalling)

- Travel & Tour World / TTG Asia (April — Philippines capacity growth, used to remove the entry)

- Travel And Tour World / Premium Times / Sahara Reporters / Nairametrics (April 24-25 — Nigeria Air Peace ongoing)

- AeroRoutes / Simple Flying / FTN News / AeroTime (Apr-May — Turkish Airlines 18 suspensions)

- Lufthansa Group press release (Apr 22 — forward-filed 20,000-flight programme)

- AirlineGeeks / CNBC / Cxagents (Apr-May — Cathay/HK Express cuts)

- AeroRoutes / TTG Asia / Bloomberg (Apr — Vietnam carrier capacity cuts)

- CNN / NPR / CNBC / Wikipedia (May 2-5 — Spirit Airlines wind-down)

- Republic World / BusinessToday (May 1 — India ATF hike)

- Xinhua / Bloomberg (May 4 — Geelong refinery RCCU update)

- TASS / Pipeline Technology Journal / Al Jazeera (Apr 22 — Druzhba north halt)

- Kpler / Lloyd's List / IMF Portwatch (May 2-7 — Hormuz traffic, stranded tankers)

- GIE AGSI+ (May 6 — EU gas storage)

If I'm missing something or you're seeing something on the ground that contradicts any of these, please flag — I'll re-check sources for the next update.

Quick roundup of where the global fuel shortage actually stands today, after the IRGC reversed Saturday's apparent strait reopening.

Aviation (worsening):

• Spirit Airlines ceased all ops May 2 — first major US carrier collapse in 25 years (CNN, NPR)
• Lufthansa Group cancelling 20,000 short-haul flights Apr–Oct; pilot strike May 4-5 adds further disruption (Lufthansa Group newsroom Apr 21)
• Vienna VIE airport reports ~12 days of jet fuel reserves remaining; OMV/MOL emergency contracts active (IEA Apr 17)
• UK May 4 cliff edge: Ryanair/easyJet supplier guarantees expire tomorrow; 10–25% summer supply at risk (Wego May 1)
• ACI Europe: 100+ EU airports at systemic risk; many hubs at 8–10 days stock

Road fuel:

• Ireland recovering from April protests but ~300 stations still dry; diesel ~€2.08/L (RTÉ Apr 15)
• Germany PCK Schwedt refinery lost ~17–25% feedstock when Russia halted Druzhba northern leg May 1 — Berlin/Brandenburg fuel supply at risk (TASS, Al Jazeera Apr 22)

Hormuz: Iran's IRGC declared May 2 that "control of the Strait has returned to its previous state" — two Indian-flagged ships fired on; India summoned Iranian ambassador (Al Jazeera). Lloyd's List: transits halted after Saturday incidents.

Brent: $108.17 (May 1 settle, no fresh print over weekend).

Day 64 and counting.

Tracking fuel shortage reports from government sources, aviation authorities, and on-the-ground news.

Here's what's confirmed as of April 27:
🇬🇧 UK — Last Gulf jet fuel shipment arrived Apr 7. Supply guaranteed mid-May only (Ryanair CEO)

🇫🇷 France — 18% of stations dry. TotalEnergies price cap triggered demand surge, diesel hit record €2.336/L

🇸🇮 Slovenia — First EU country with formal rationing. 50L/day cap since Mar 22. Army deployed.

✈️ Europe-wide — Lufthansa cancelled 20,000 flights Apr–Oct. IEA: several countries below 20-day jet fuel threshold. Birol: "we may need to reduce travel in Europe"

🇻🇳 Vietnam — 23+ flights/week cut across Vietnam Airlines, Vietjet, Bamboo Air. AirAsia X tankering fuel in from outside the country.

🇵🇭 Philippines — National energy emergency. President warned of aircraft groundings.

🇦🇺 Australia — Geelong refinery (1 of 2 in the country) on fire Apr 14–15, now at minimum rates. 300 stations dry in Victoria.

🇳🇿 New Zealand — 27 days jet fuel remaining. Air NZ cancelled 1,100+ flights.

🇱🇰 Sri Lanka — 15L/week petrol ration. Four-day school week.

🇰🇪 Kenya — Shortages across 13 counties. Farmers can't plant — diesel tractors idle.

🇪🇬 Egypt — Shops close at 9pm by law. Monthly gas import bill tripled to $1.65B.