r/Shortages

Active (confirmed physical unavailability)

• France: about 15% of stations had a shortage on 5 Oct, up from 12% on 4 Oct and 9% on 2 Oct (essenceradar: 1,658 stations tracked, 513 dry at 04:00 on 6 Oct; prix-carburant.eu: 1,512 stations, 14.1%).
• Cuba: UNE forecast a 2,030 MW deficit for 3 Oct. No ninth blackout since the eighth on 19 Sep.

Watch (not confirmed as current)

• Russia: I'm holding it at watch. Moscow Times (23 Sep) reported Kaluga odd-even rules, 15 L/car in Zabaikalsky and 30 L in Leningrad, and rationing in several regions was reported on 30 Sep. Gasoline is +21% YTD at 78.51 rubles/L and the diesel export ban runs to 31 Oct. I'm checking whether limits are spreading before moving it to red.
• EU gas storage: 72.67% on gas day 4 Oct (GIE AGSI+), +0.27pp/day. Germany 59.04%, Netherlands 60.31%. At the 8-day pace the EU reaches about 79% by 1 Nov, short of 80%.

Prices: Brent settled $100.32 on Mon 5 Oct (-1.9%) and WTI $89.43. AAA US regular is $4.37 and diesel $6.32 (record $6.53 on 22 Sep). UK diesel passed £2/litre (200.01p, RAC, 2 Oct).

Strait: Iran says it stays closed until its seven conditions are met. No new tanker strike has been reported since 4 Oct (at least four were hit on 1-4 Oct).

Map and sources: https://global-energy-flow.com/shortages/