New Victorian public transport patronage data is out.
Source: (https://discover.data.vic.gov.au/dataset/monthly-public-transport-patronage-by-mode)
(Charts 1 & 2)
It looks like the COVID era slump may be coming to an end, though I think we should hold off from declaring it so just yet. We got a big bump in April coinciding with the free fares period.
(Charts 3 & 4)
Comparing with 2018, V/Line is doing the best, probably driven by service upgrades and the generously reworked fares system.
Metropolitan buses and regional buses have been in comparison more stable, maybe due to the passengers using these forms of transport being less able to WFH.
(Chart 5)
Looking at the year-on-year change, it looks like Metro Trains has been tracking up and down in tandem with the trams, probably due to both being dominated by CBD commuter flows.
However, at the start of 2026, train growth positively diverged from tram growth - This may be the result of the Metro Tunnel.
Whilst there was a steady increase of train passengers during the first months of the Metro Tunnel, it really took off during the free travel period, trains benefiting more than any other mode.
This of course might be an artifact of myki-free estimation methods, but it could also be that of the kinds of trips that fares were the final barrier to are more "recreational" style train trips.
This aligns with a bigger impact of free fares in April compared to May; the school holidays were in April.
(All)
2025 was not the best year for PT patronage, possibly the post COVID spike ended and we further recalibrated, or the disruptions during that period were just too much for some passengers.
Whatever the cause, Metro Tunnel or cheaper fares or less disruptions (?), PT growth seems to be back in 2026.
Thanks to u/gertiegoogoo for helping workshop this analysis with me.