u/Sorfing

Hey everyone. If you’ve been watching QXO’s Q2 earnings print, the initial headline noise around the GAAP net loss vs. the operational earnings beat has been interesting to track.

I just put together a deep dive video looking at the actual financial mechanics behind this earnings release and conference call, rather than just reacting to automated headline algorithms.

https://youtu.be/-j2nx-g0R-A?si=_ccWDGqN7Ha1OECB

Here’s a quick summary of what I broke down:

• The GAAP Loss vs. Real Profitability: Why the $(55)M GAAP net loss is heavily distorted by front-loaded M&A transaction fees and preferred dividend allocations, while core operating performance printed $272M in Adjusted EBITDA and positive +$0.08 Adjusted EPS.
• The TopBuild Accounting Cutoff: Why judging QXO on this $3.25B print misses the real scale. TopBuild officially closed on July 1st (Q3 day one), meaning zero TopBuild revenue or EBITDA was captured in Q2. The combined run-rate baseline is now ~$18B in revenue and ~$2B in Adjusted EBITDA.
• Gross Margin Expansion: Looking at how gross margins reached 24.7% (up 360 bps YoY), driven by purchasing scale and AI-driven pricing tools across Kodiak ($595M Q2 contribution) and Beacon before TopBuild synergies even layer in.
• Brad Jacobs on Capital Allocation: Key call takeaways, specifically management confirming a transition into an operational execution phase—focusing on organic integration, debt reduction, and synergy extraction rather than near-term equity dilution.

If you’re tracking the roll-up platform or just curious about how these numbers actually stack up behind the headlines, feel free to check out the full breakdown.

Would love to hear your thoughts or any counterarguments

Hey everyone. If you’ve been watching QXO hit new 52-week lows this week after the TopBuild deal closed, the short interest creeping past 18% has been wild to track.

I just put together a deep dive video looking at the actual structural mechanics behind this drawdown, rather than just panic-watching the daily price chart.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tQPnLVqvQ58

Here’s a quick summary of what I broke down:

• The TopBuild Cash Mix: Why 91% of TopBuild shareholders electing cash forced a massive near-term capital deployment and debt refinancing, causing short-term algorithms to completely misread the deal as financial distress.
• The 4 Billion Share Illusion: The difference between authorized vs. outstanding shares. Doubling the authorized capital to 4 billion shares isn't an immediate dilution trap—it’s Brad Jacobs securing a long-term capital runway for future M&A flexibility.
• The Real Bear Case: Looking objectively at why short sellers are actually here. It comes down to real execution friction: simultaneous integration risks (TopBuild, Beacon, Kodiak), negative near-term free cash flow, and macro housing cyclicality.
• The 2030 EBITDA Bridge: Diving into the actual numbers from the newly released 8-K. The combined company already has an $18.09B revenue baseline and $2.13B in Adjusted EBITDA, with management laying out a clear, organic path to $4.0B by 2030 without needing near-term equity issuance.

If you’re tracking the roll-up platform or just curious about where the fundamental valuation floor sits, feel free to check out the full breakdown.

Would love to hear your thoughts or any counterarguments on the math in the comments!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nnI6hnKFxiM

Hi everybody, I hope you’re having a wonderful day. If any of you are curious on what’s currently going on with the SpaceX IPO I made a YouTube video where I talk about some of the numbers behind the S-1 filing and my fundamental breakdown for the company if you’re interested, please feel free to check it out. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated!!!