We all know about Brandon Hagel. Drafted in the 6th round in 2016 and put up OK numbers in the WHL in his D+1 and D+2 years but that came with a noticeable decline from D+1 to D+2 going from 71 points to 59 points. For comparison, Cozens posted 84 in his D-1 season and 85 in his D+1 season, Quinn posted 89 in his D-1 season and Benson posted 98 points in his D-1 season.

The Sabres did not treat Hagel well (asked him to train in Buffalo but then didn't extend an ELC) and he still holds a grudge but he also was injured twice in his two development years with the Sabres and to be fair put up pretty weak numbers in the WHL after being drafted. The Sabres were also close to the 50 contract limit at the time after giving ELCs to players like Andrew Oglevie, Victor Olofsson, Lawrence Pilut and Rasmus Asplund. Still, this is often viewed as the biggest mistake for then-GM Jason Botterill and his front office. Even with the injuries, the evaluation of Hagel should have been different and he could have been treated better.

In his D+3 season after leaving the Buffalo system, he posted 102 points in the WHL, then in his D+4 season he posted 31 points in the AHL and got a single game in the NHL with Chicago. Then in his D+5 season he broke out to post 37 points for Chicago.

So who is the next mistake, because it's going to happen? Some options:

• Anton Wahlberg is entering his D+4 season after posting 37 points in the AHL and will start the season with San Diego in the AHL after being traded. Since he has been traded, it's already one step towards a mistake.
• Prokhor Poltapov is entering his D+6 season in the KHL and is signed to May 31, 2027. His 40 points in the KHL in his D+5 year is good but not great. The Sabres still consider him a part of the prospect pool but he could be trade bait for a GM that has has a scout that sees more.
• One of Gavin McCarthy/Maxim Strbak (entering D+4) or Adam Kleber/Brodie Ziemer (entering D+3). I'm grouping all 4 of these guys together due to the clear logjam in front of them on the blue line for the Sabres. Strbak and McCarthy are going to play in Rochester and Kleber and Ziemer are set to play in the NCAA. Seems really easy to have one of these 4 get added to a trade for a NHLer and they develop into a top-4 monster down the road.

Unless an unexpected trade (at this point) happens, the Sabres are going to run back the three goalies. Wanted to see what others projected for them this season:

2025-26 Regular Season Numbers

• Lyon: 36 GP - 20-10-4 record - 2.77 GAA - .907 sv% - 12.6 GSAx - 2.10 WAR
• UPL: 36 GP - 22-9-3 record - 2.52 GAA - .910 sv% - 10.5 GSAx - 1.75 WAR
• Ellis: 16 GP - 8-4-2 record - 2.90 GAA - .903 sv% - 1.9 GSAx - 0.31 WAR

Projections

• Does UPL claim the net he is being paid for or steal 1A again at 1/3 the cost?
• Both UPL and Lyon had career years last season. Will that play continue or will one or both see a decline?
• Do the Sabres try to get Ellis more games? Unlike last year, the Sabres are now free to trade him at any point in time.
• On trades, Lyon and Ellis have no trade protections and UPL now has a 5-team list.

Tier 1

• No players

Tier 2

• Daxon Rudolph -> 12 overall

Tier 3

• Konsta Helenius -> 42 overall
• Radim Mrtka -> 54 overall

Tier 4

• Noah Östlund -> 55 overall

> NHL roster rules require teams to carry a minimum of 20 players (18 skaters and two goalies) on their active roster, with a maximum of 23 players permitted from the start of the regular season through the trade deadline.

EDIT:

The Sabres currently have 15 forwards + 7 defense + 3 goalies and $4,169,902 in cap space. If Jarmo is done for the summer, which I don't think he is, they need to shed at least 2 forward from the roster. Easy move seems to be Danforth. Most value without touching the future likely comes from Zucker.

15 not 14 forwards. h/t: captain_fantasy

Hockey news is slow but it feels like a damn is going to break here soon, so wanted to see what others thought on the current NHL drama.

Connor Hellebuyck Trade

Did Chevy play himself with his game of chicken with Jarmo and now has to deal with UPL blocking a trade after his 5 team was activated on 7/1? I don't see any timeline where Hellebuyck is in net for the Jets next season.

Jason Robertson Dallas Drama

Is it Dallas? Pittsburgh with his little brother?

Leo Carlsson Offer Sheet

Does Verbeek take his medicine with the 4 1sts from Philly?

Cutter Gauthier Contract

Regardless of where Carlsson ends Gauthier is going

Dylan Larkin Trade

Is Yzerman crazy and stubborn enough to bring Larkin back to camp if he doesn't get what he wants?

Patrick Kane UFA Destination

Where does Kane land? Is it Buffalo? Would he consider Washington on a heavy bonus deal which would push his costs to next season when Ovi is done?

---

• I still think Hellebuyck ends up in Buffalo but it now becomes a 3 team trade with Jarmo having to find a team not on his 5-team to participate.
• The earth is salted and I think he wants out. Arbitration walks him to UFA and I think Dallas moves him to Pittsburgh and they finally get to trade Rust who Pens fans have been trying to sell to every team for the last 5 seasons.
• The Ducks are going to take the picks and Verbeek becomes a terrorist.
• Gauthier signs a bridge and traded before 2027.
• Larkin finds his way to Dallas.
• Kane is in Buffalo as a PP ace.

Carolina backed off yesterday and Florida just traded for Jacob Markstrom.

Have a game of chicken going on between Chevy and Jarmo. In just over 12 hours UPL gets a 5 team no trade list and I would assume Winnipeg will be at the top of it. Norris also gets a 10 team list when the clock strikes 12. Part of me wants this trade to not happen just to have it blow up in the face of Chevy who has been ruthless for years and now fighting for his job.

Hold the line Jarmo! UPL+Norris+Krebs <> Hellebuyck or GFYM.

The off-season just started, and there are still several seismic events that are expected to happen.

• Robertson is still out there. Friedman has said that it’s come to the point that if you’re trading with Dallas, you are likely doing so without knowing if he will sign with you long-term, and LeBrun has said that Dallas is coming to terms with getting 4 1sts off an offer sheet, and the expected offer would need to be 7 years / $15M AAV.
• Larkin is still unresolved and expected to be done in the next week, and depending on how that goes, Alex DeBrincat could be on the market.
• Hellebuyck is still on the Winnipeg roster and clearly wants out.
• Vancouver is still trying to move Elias Pettersson. Rangers are trying to move Vincent Trocheck.
• Zach Werenski and Kirill Marchenko for Columbus just entered the chat.
• There is also still smoke about Knies in Toronto as well.

Wondering if there are moves Buffalo could make based on the above.

Per @SabresPR

Bo is signed for 1 more year at a very attractive $6,250,000 walking him to UFA next summer with a $113.5 million cap. He's a proven 25 y/o top-4 guy with all of the pedigree you can want and it's been mentioned several times he wants top-pair money. So how long should Jarmo give on the extension talks before he trades Byram?

Some considerations:

• Byram's agent, Darren Ferris, has a reputation for testing free agency to maximize his clients' earnings.
• The 8 year contract rule for teams goes away but not until September 16, 2026.

Some options I see:

• Trade as soon as you get an offer that you can't refuse. Likely around the Draft/July 1.
• Do a sign and trade before September 16 to give teams the ability to lock Byram in for 8 years.
• Trade before the season starts to avoid disruptions during the season.
• Trade between the start of the season and the trade deadline.
• Pull a Tuch 2.0 and ride his contract to the very end.

Ideally they find a way to make it work but there would be some compelling options out there that allow Jarmo to reshuffle the roster if they were forced to move off Byram.

So it does not look like the Sabres are going to even be an option for Larkin. It is what it is. But depending on what team does trade for Larkin and what they give, I think it might make sense for the Sabres to call on Debrincat.

My reasons why:

• Debrincat has one more year left in Detroit. It's unlikely he would extend there if they go into a youth movement.
• I've read that Detroit is looking for NHL players around a similar age to Raymond (24) and Seider (25) which makes sense.
• Depending on who they get back, they may have a giant hole in their center spine. The Sabres have centers to sell.

What I would do if I was Jarmo

Call up Yzerman to see IF Debrincat would come to Buffalo as he has a 16-team M-NTC. If Debrincat would be willing to come, work out a trade package that is contingent upon Detroit moving off Larkin. Offer Quinn + Norris as the start and find out what would is needed to add to make it work out and possible.

Why this might make sense for Detroit

1. They are going to need help at center. Norris, even with his injury history, would be better than what they have after Larkin.
2. Yzerman knowing that he could get a good but often injured center right after moving off Larkin gives him some flexibility in his ask in any potential Larkin trade. Instead of needing to get a center back who can play 1C next season, he could go for the best player available which could be a winger or a goalie or get a better 1C for the future who might just need a year or two to cook.

Why this might make sense for Buffalo

1. It gets the Norris contract off the books which has massive value for extension options on Ostlund, Kulich and Byram. `
2. It replaces the goal production from Tuch next season and gives you the opportunity to shelter Helenius on the 3rd line for his 1st full season.

AFP Analytics, which is OK at contract projections, suggests Malenstyn at 3 years at $2,637,960.00. For comparison they project Tuch with 7 years at $10,116,888.89 and Benson with either 2 years at $4,196,400.00 or 7 years at $6,975,428.57. The Wild just extended Michael McCarron who is 31 with 6 years at $3,333,333. With Malenstyn being 3 years younger at 28, should the Sabres try to extend Malenstyn to a similar term/value?

Edit: AFP projected McCarron at 2 years / $2,041,113.05.

I've read a bunch that the Sharks are looking for help on the blue line and Kesselring would be a great fit there with his age. And while the Sharks are loaded at forward, they are young. I could see the fit for Tuch on the first line with Celebrini for a couple of years and then move down the lineup.

Local media in San Jose had an article taking about trading 2OA to to Chicago and some unnamed executive said "I think that would be a fair trade" to the following:

> Sharks trade No. 2 to the Blackhawks for the No. 4 pick, defenseman Kevin Korchinski and Chicago's 2026 second-rounder -- No. 34 overall?

So I'm wondering if Tuch (sign-and-trade) + Kesselring + 27 OA would be enough to pull #2 away from the Sharks considering the Buffalo package has a lot more value for the next 3-4 years and Geier is looking to exit his rebuild and make a run with Celebrini at the top of his game. The Sharks could easily afford the Kempe contract for Tuch and might not see the same risk in years 5-8.

After all, I could see the Sharks going after Tuch as a UFA but that 8th year is a pretty big card to play for a team with even higher taxes than Buffalo.