r/notredamefootball

Is that we don't have to half ass hope they're good so they bolster our SoS.

Now I hope they just lose every game.

I had to repost this because I meant to say: I get why the Irish are ranked this high, but *WITHOUT Jeremiyah Love heading into the season, I'm curious how everyone is feeling about the ranking.

Would you have Notre Dame higher, lower, or right around number 4?

I'm running a bit behind on these, illness and family life has consumed a lot of my last week or two, so it's going to be 3 of these a week to get caught up, and up today is Michigan State.

Just to introduce things overall, I'm going to use FEI (ND's own Brian Fremeau's analytical efficiency rankings) rankings when discussing this year's projections, and F+ rankings (a combination of FEI and Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings) when discussing last year's. UPDATE: F+ rankings are now out for 2026! So I'll be using them across the board now.

Returning production is Bill Connelly's formula and it does take into account transfers.

For win totals and Monte Carlo simulations, I'm using ESPN's FPI rankings and 100k simulations.

So for example:

Notre Dame:

Last year: Offensive ranking (OF+): 3^(rd) Defensive ranking (DF+): 8^(th) Overall (F+): 4^(th)

This year: Offensive ranking (OF+): 3^(rd) Defensive ranking (DF+): 2^(nd) Overall (F+): 4^(th)

Returning production: OFF: 19^(th) DEF: 2^(nd) Overall: 1^(st)

Portal Activity: 7 transfers in, 14 transfers out (11^(th) ranked portal class)

ND has an expected win total of 11.0 wins, with a 99% chance of getting 9 or better wins, 94% chance of 10+, 73% chance of 11+, and a 33% chance of running the table.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Michigan State:

Last year: Offensive ranking (OF+): 64^(th) Defensive ranking (DF+): 76^(th) Overall (F+): 78^(th)

This year: Offensive ranking (OF+): 61^(st) Defensive ranking (DF+): 69^(th) Overall (F+): 61^(st)

Returning production: OFF: 88^(th) DEF: 91^(st) Overall: 97^(th)

Portal Activity: 29 transfers in, 44 transfers out (55^(th) ranked portal class)

Rice has an expected win total of 4.4 wins, with a 91% chance of getting 3 or better wins, 72% chance of 4+, 45% chance of 5+, and a 21% chance of bowl eligibility at 6+ wins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Notre Dame vs. MSU: FPI prediction: 96.8% ND; Vegas spread: NA (might be out there somewhere)

Offense:
This offense is completely re-tooled from last year. Losing Nick Marsh was a massive blow for them. They've pretty much lost all their pass catchers from last year, in fact, including a couple of good tight ends. Running backs are gone too. This team had LOADS of offensive talent that just went out there to high paying P4 programs from Indiana to Texas, Ole Miss, etc. They stunk on offense last year apparently due to coaching and not from a lack of talent.

Now they have Nick Sheridan, Bama's former OC. So the dude has experience at a high level, but their offense has been the main thing holding the Tide back the last couple of years, so I hesitate to state they've upgraded in terms of OC. At the very least, they could have done far worse.

They did not bring in much at WR through the portal, which would alarm me if I was a Sparty fan. But one of their top portal acquisitions was KK Smith, who I think can be a quality number 2 WR for most P4 programs. They brought in numbers at RB, and Cam Edwards might be good, perhaps even an upgrade over the guys that left?

After completely screwing the pooch at QB for most of the season, they finally seem to have settled in on Milivojevic (I wonder how many announcers will mess that one up?) who made their final 4 games of the season competitive at least (Penn State won by double digits, but it was a 1 score game until late in the 4th Q).

But I suspect most of their talent skill left because their OL stinks. And it looks like most of those dudes are coming back. I'm reminded of that season a few years ago where everyone hyped up UNC's offensive line because they were returning all of their starters... from a terrible offensive line. And sure enough, the OL was bad. I'm guessing next year will be more of the same from MSU, they bring in a really big dude from UConn to go with their RB, so maybe run blocking will be better for them. Milivojevic managed to keep his INT's down, despite getting pressured a lot, but a runner he is not... I think this game could be a high water mark for ND getting TFL's and sacks. Interestingly Milivojevic (starting to get the spelling down lol) did 3 punts last year, with one of them going for 49 yards, so I expect them to do a fake out or two on 4th and 2 or something with him. But I doubt Biagi will be caught too off guard.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense:

If Michigan State is going to make a big jump anywhere, I would expect it to happen on defense. Fitzgerald usually had good defenses at NW. We all know co-DC Max Bollough is a great coach, I'm actually going to make a bold prediction that he will be Michigan State's next head coach in 3-5 years. The other DC, Joe Rossi, is the main hold over from the previous administration. So the defense might not have too big of a learning curve to go through as well.

Overall I would say the defense has some good pieces: a DT transfer from Oregon a couple years ago who is massive, got his feet wet last year, their leading tackler (by a mile) and cause of Havoc plays in Jordan Hall, a really good safety (Nikai Martinez) who missed most of last season. But they lost a ton across the board on defense, as they got utterly raided there in the portal as well, particularly along the DL. They need a high hit rate in the portal to be good on defense by week 3, and I just don't see it.

Prior to this write up, I thought they would have a decent front 7 at least, but I think there's going to be some gaping holes on their defense, perhaps literally. It should be a good game for the OL to really start building some confidence, IMO. Just double their big DT (Knapp and Otting/Craig can handle him) and run some 12 personnel so the Flans (my new trademark for our TE duo) can pick up Hall and I think free access throws will be there all day.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prediction:

I'm glad this game is at night. It greatly reduces the chances of another sleepy start that turns into panic mode. I could see a world in which MSU's OL is much better than anticipated, and Sparty's QB might actually be pretty good this year (dare I say someone we could get in the portal for 2027 if our QB room behind Carr disappoints?). Bullough doesn't have enough to work with to truly stop ND's offense, but some heads up scouting and a timely turnover could keep it close.

But since it is a night game, and ND is going to be in full "LND" mode, I think the Irish will really handle this game and then some. Like Wisconsin, I will be rooting for MSU down the stretch, particularly against Michigan. The problem is that they are only favored outright (per FPI at least) in just 2 games this year, the ones right before ND. Now there's 7 other games that FPI gives them a 30-45% chance of winning, so if they're just slightly better than expected, they could definitely go bowling.

52-10, Irish. Carr puts up low yards as ND gets favorable field position most of the game, but he throws for 4 TD's and we get to see the backup QB take some reps with the 1st string midway through the 3rd quarter.

Recently joined the Subway Alumni, love everything about the school and a born and raised practicing Catholic so I’m a full blown fan. This sub mentioned how much hate we get online… you weren’t lyin. I actually don’t get the jabronis in Bloomington. Some people just can’t handle prosperity.

SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Bubba Frazier beat nickelback Christian Gray to the inside, then ran past defensive end Boubacar Traore’s attempt to drop into zone coverage. CJ Carr’s pass did the rest, leading Frazier into green grass as the freshman slot receiver went nearly 50 yards for a touchdown during Monday’s practice.

Notre Dame’s defense, expected to rate among the best in the country, never got a hand on the 5-foot-10, 185-pound athlete. That’s why this in-house highlight released on the school’s social media accounts matters with the season opener against Wisconsin at Lambeau Field less than three weeks away. There are few concerns about this secondary. As for the receiver room, nobody seems to know what Notre Dame has.

Receivers coach Mike Brown has repeatedly called that a “good problem to have,” which means Notre Dame still has a problem at a position that’s been an issue since Marcus Freeman took over the program. No Irish receiver has finished with 50 catches in any of the past four seasons. Only three topped 40 catches, and Jaden Greathouse and Beaux Collins required a 16-game season to get there two years ago.

Free to read here.

Must go hard if you’re in kindergarten.

Yes I just rewatched the 2023 ND OSU game

I'm subscribed to Irish illustrated, but I'm curious if anyone subscribes to any other ND forum like Irish sports daily or blue and gold, etc and if it's worth it?

Taking my dad to the BC game this year, but he is a disabled veteran and isnt super mobile. i dont know if he can make it walking to the stadium. We went to the blue and gold game, and he barely made it out to the lots right outside the stadium. Are there any lots that offer a shuttle or golf cart for older/disabled people who arent as mobile as the rest of us? even if we have to pay thats fine. i called the parking dept and left a message but havent heard back. any help would be greatly appreciated.

Through Team IMPACT, a resilient 15-year-old fan fulfilled his dream of joining the Fighting Irish.