▲ 3 r/EVbetting
Is chasing closing line value actually a reliable way to know if a bet was +EV?
I keep seeing people say "don't worry about whether the bet won, just check if you beat the closing line." But how much stock should I actually put in CLV as a signal? If I'm consistently getting a better number than the close but still losing more than I win over a decent sample, is that just variance, or does it mean my line shopping isn't actually finding real edges? Trying to figure out if CLV alone is enough to tell me I'm making +EV bets or if I need something else to confirm it.
u/Still-Variation-7398 — 5 days ago
