Are a few big holders influencing Libertad prices?
I've been collecting Libertads for a while and there's something I've noticed that I'm curious if anyone else has seen. Certain years will get really hard to find. Prices go up, sellers start talking about how tough they are to get, and you barely see any for sale. Then a few months later, suddenly there are rolls of them all over eBay, Whatnot, and other places.
I've noticed it with 1983, 1985, 1995, 2015 and 2018.
It makes me wonder if the Libertad market is a lot more concentrated than we realize. I'm not talking about a secret hoard somewhere. I'm wondering if there are a few big collectors, dealers or wholesalers sitting on large quantities of certain years and releasing them over time. Mintage doesn't necessarily tell us what's actually available. You can have a million coins minted, but if only a small percentage are changing hands and a few people own a large chunk of those, they could have a pretty big impact on availability and price without owning anywhere close to the majority of the total mintage.
A year is supposedly hard to find. Prices climb. Then someone suddenly has rolls. Not long after that, several sellers seem to have them.
Maybe there's a simple explanation. Old collections get sold. Dealers find inventory in Mexico. Wholesalers buy large lots and distribute them. I'm sure all of that happens.
But I'm curious how often multiple sellers are actually getting these coins from the same source.
For the people who have been collecting or dealing in Libertads for a long time:
- Have you noticed this with 1983, 1985, 1995, 2015 or 2018 or any other year?
- Are there known dealers or wholesalers sitting on significant quantities of older BU Libertads?
- When a bunch of sellers suddenly have the same date, is there usually a large wholesaler behind it?
- Are there years that collectors consider scarce today that actually have a lot of rolls sitting in a few inventories?
- Have you seen years go from "hard to find" to readily available like this before?
I'm not accusing any particular seller of manipulating anything. I'm mostly questioning how much we really know about the supply side of this market. If a few large holders control a meaningful amount of the Libertads that are actually available for sale, then published mintage numbers may only tell part of the story. And it could also mean some of the premiums we pay for supposedly tough dates aren't as solid as we think.
Curious what the longtime Libertad collectors here think. Has this always been how the market works, or are other people noticing these waves too?