GENUINE CHANCE OF REMAIN LOSING REFERENDUM
Let’s look at the situation:
It’s very possible that the Remain in Canada side loses the referendum due to underreporting of Leave support by the media, and an apathetic Remain electorate. The media suggests 1 in 4 support leaving, but I believe it’s realistically closer to 30% to 40%.
(EDIT: Latest poll proves me correct: https://338canada.com/alberta/polls-indy.htm)
It’s essential that people get out and vote on the day of the referendum.
But this will be a challenge since we know that Gen Z is politically apathetic;
And many Canadian citizen immigrants may be less impassioned to vote, as well. They historically have lower voter turnout.
Therefore, there is a real threat the Leave side could win the referendum. Check out these scenarios:
REMAIN wins if only 30% of Albertans support Leave and there is just 60% voter turnout from the Remain side.
\- There are 3 million approx eligible voters in Alberta.
\- There’ll likely be 90%+ voter turnout for the Leave side. Let’s say 30% of Albertans support Leave. Thats 900,000 people. At 90% voter turnout, it equals 810,000 votes.
\- Whereas, if there’s just a 60% turnout vote for Remain from the balance of electors, that’ll bring just 1.26 million votes.
We really need to hope that the number of Leave supporters isn’t higher.
Conversely:
LEAVE wins if they have just 40% support and get 95% voter turnout.
\- If their support is closer to 40%, and they get 95% voter turnout, that’s 1.14 million people voting to Leave.
\- From the balance of people who are Remain in this situation, at only 60% voter turnout, that’ll bring just 1.094 million.
\- In this situation, Remain LOSES the vote.
It’s VERY possible the Remain side loses considering how many people on the Remain side are not taking it seriously, and how much I believe the media is underreporting support for Leave.
VOTER TURNOUT WILL BE KEY!!
Support staying in Canada!
EDIT: I believe it is closer to 30% to 40% in support of leaving based on the number of flags being flown in my town, based on the number of conversations I’ve had with people who are genuinely considering voting for leave, based on the number of times polls have been wrong in advance of elections, and in particular, based on the tendency for history to repeat itself - thinking about the polls and apathy in advance of Brexit, when people in the UK voted to leave as a means of “sending a message to London”.
Therefore in this situation, I believe it’s important to be as conservative as possible in wargaming situations out. In this very realistic situation presented above, the remain side loses. I’m posting this to emphasize how important it is for the Remain side to GET OUT THE VOTE