

Short sellers boost bets against SpaceX and it's already costing them — Reuters
reuters.comSpaceX & the Sentient Sun (Essay by Marc Andreessen and Michael McGuiness)
a16z.newsPlease, let me hold the bag.
I am not primarily doing this for the return, though the return, if it comes, would matter. I am doing it for the same reason someone might have crossed a difficult terrain to stand on ground that felt important, not because the ground paid them, but because being there was its own form of compensation.
Every mission update, every contract announcement, every test flight becomes personally relevant in a way that it simply is not without the stake. I am buying a front row seat to something I believe is the most consequential technological transition of my lifetime, with the option value of a significant financial return attached.
The seat costs less than a ticket to a high profile sporting event. The game lasts twenty years. The ceiling, if I'm right, isn't a final score, it is a transformation in the material conditions of human civilization.
Would you invest in Intuitive Machines (LUNR)? I would think SpaceX scaling will improve their outlook, but not sure if the company has good fundamentals right now or what.
reddit.comPresiction: Tech Stock will start to go back up next week, after institutions and retail investors have finished accumulating dry powder for SpaceX IPO.
Officially, almost no one will admit that this is a factor at all in the current sell off, but I think next week's activity may suggest otherwise. Of course, if it does, it may be accompanied by some other excuse, such the inflation/Broadcom/earnings season excuse given for the sell off. What are your thoughts?
My personal perspective on investing in SpaceX
For most of modern finance, money has been treated primarily as a mechanism for managing fear. Risk is measured, distributed, hedged, and softened until volatility itself becomes suspect. Entire institutions exist to ensure that nothing too unpredictable, too personal, or too ambitious can meaningfully disturb the spreadsheet.
That system has its place. Pension funds and retirement accounts are not irrational for valuing stability. Most people depend on them to preserve decades of labor against the erosion of time. But some things are difficult to build within that framework.
For more than a decade, I have watched an improbable engineering culture emerge from the mudflats of South Texas and the launchpads of the Cape. I watched the early Grasshopper hops when much of the aerospace world treated reusable rockets as an entertaining dead end. I watched prototypes fail violently and publicly, one after another, while critics counted explosions and the engineers counted data.
What struck me was not recklessness, but tempo. Failures were not hidden behind polished corporate language or stretched across years of committee review. Hardware moved, broke, adapted, and returned to the pad again. The process felt less like the sterile choreography of modern finance and more like a workshop operating at industrial scale: iterative, physical, and deeply tied to intuition earned through direct contact with reality.
Now the machinery of Wall Street is preparing to absorb that culture into the public markets, and the anxiety from institutional investors is entirely predictable.
They see concentrated founder control, dual-class structures, limited shareholder influence, and governance models that violate nearly every convention of modern corporate orthodoxy. From their perspective, these concerns are legitimate. Pension managers are custodians, not visionaries. Their responsibility is to protect retirees, not underwrite civilizational gambles. But I think there is also a category error taking place.
Many investors are attempting to evaluate a frontier engineering effort using the same expectations they would apply to a mature utility company or telecom provider. Predictability, procedural consensus, and insulation from volatility are valuable traits in stable systems. They are not always compatible with building something genuinely new.
The uncomfortable possibility is that the very traits public markets instinctively try to restrain may have been necessary to create the hardware in the first place.
For the first time in my life, I am opening a retirement account. On paper, it is supposed to represent caution and long-term stability. Instead, I find myself drawn toward something far less conventional.
I do not particularly care whether the stock initially surges, collapses, or spends years moving sideways beneath waves of speculation and panic. I expect volatility. I expect setbacks. Rockets explode. Programs stall. Markets overreact.
My plan is simple: buy steadily, hold patiently, and continue accumulating when circumstances allow. Traditional financial advice would describe this as excessive concentration and founder risk. That criticism is fair. By conventional portfolio logic, it probably is reckless.
But what they fail to grasp is that my capital is not looking for a hiding place; it is looking for a mission.
Twelve years ago, if you had offered me the chance to contribute directly to the long-term expansion of human civilization beyond Earth, with no expectation of financial return whatsoever, I likely would have done it gladly. The extraordinary thing is not the possibility of profit. The extraordinary thing is that ordinary people may now be able to own a fragment of the infrastructure itself.
That is what makes this feel different from a normal investment thesis.
Most market activity is ultimately defensive. It seeks preservation, optimization, incremental growth. There is nothing wrong with that. Civilization depends on it.
But every so often, a project emerges that asks for something else entirely: patience measured in decades, tolerance for disorder, and belief in outcomes that cannot yet be modeled cleanly on a spreadsheet.
When I look twenty-five years ahead, I do not see this merely as a stock position. I see it as a small personal stake in a larger trajectory, one aimed stubbornly outward toward horizons that still feel almost mythological.
And for the first time, that feels like a future worth allocating capital toward.
GATEWAY TO MARS
And don't forget it.
Photo from Nasa Space Flight's X post today.
A four-organisation collaboration will build a generative AI design system and rapid manufacturing capability for the Optimus Viper spacecraft.
uts.edu.auSpaceX and Google Are in Talks to Launch Data Centers in Orbit
wsj.comSpaceX is only ~200 hundred satellites away from having launched as many satellites as the rest of the world combined.
Source: Christian Keil https://x.com/pronounced\_kyle/status/2054047629181702181?s=46
Expect "Pain and Guilt" in 2027, "Anger and Bargaining" in 2028. Sometime before 2033 we should be at "Acceptance and Hope".