Why I believe SOFI found its bottom and is currently undervalued
SoFi has been beaten up due to a few things - big tech client leaving in Chime setting fears the tech side revenue won't be as high as it was anticipated to be.
Macro fears around inflation, recession and credit/lending.
Dilution concerns (historically every bit of dilution has been accretive to the business itself and raised the fundamental floor - I believe SoFi is mostly done diluting at this point)
Some facts about SoFi:
It has met or beat expectations on guidance since their 2nd eps report. It has 10 GAAP quarters of profitability. They're currently guiding for 30% revenue CAGR and 38-42% EPS CAGR through 2028. They boast a rule of 40 score of 72 per their latest earnings call.
They've been labelled as the #1 bank.
Have a high membership acquisition growth rate.
SoFi plus membership is growing.
Their aim is to be a one stop shop for consumers and a financial ecosystem.
They've recently announced:
Crypto Wallets
Big business banking
Mastercard partnership
SOFIUSD stable coin
multiple minor acquisitions to strengthen the financial services platform.
→ PrimaryBid extends SoFi Invest (capital markets access)
→ Composer extends SoFi Plus (AI portfolio building)
→ Peach extends Big Business Banking (loan servicing)
Options trading improvements including 0 dte and basic guidelines.
Based on their growth rate I get a forward PEG of <0.6 currently showing possibility of being pretty undervalued. They've been given an incredibly steep risk discount despite having proven to sustain high growth through higher interest rates, student loan pauses, and a regulatory body that was less crypto friendly.
On a technical side it has now bounced just above the 200 weekly ema twice and looks to have stopped aggressively sliding. MACD is showing selling exhaustion, RSI is in nuetral territory which shows it should have room to run.
Further potential catalyst of S&P 500 inclusion upon sustain MC of $22.8B -> They've more than met the other requirements. I think the odds increase every quarter they aren't included with an almost guarantee for sometime 2027 upon sustaining growth.
Macro tailwinds could also bring back sentiment/volume
Historically IPO's perform poorly ~3-4 years. SOFI had its first breakout year last year right on time. It's really just hitting its growth acceleration in my opinion
To me a bank growing at a fast pace with a financial/tech flywheel bringing in >40% of it's revenue in high margin revenue is a steal at a TBV of just over 2x and a book multiple of <2x.
Disclosure: I am holding 4.5k shares with an average of $15.35 and multiple 2028 $15 strike leaps. My accumulation zone is sub $20 and I've been an investor/DCAer since 2022 - i trimmed after it double peaked last year and have been adding those profits back in since Q4 2025 EPS. I plan to hold these until post S&P inclusion at minimum but I truly consider this a stock to accumulate when deep value presents itself and hold for longterm growth / trim if the market becomes too euphoric again.
