▲ 15 r/DFLI

To Will Prowse

Something is going on with replies to posts for me so I'm posting this here.

I've been quietly reading through your posts & replies for a bit, and the feigned ignorance in your sailor post replies comes across as incredibly disingenuous. You have been using a facade of polite curiosity to inject negative sentiment into a community of beaten-down investors, all while claiming you just want to "learn" and simultaneously questioning the intelligence and knowledge of the community. This is with a community that currently has less than a thousand visitors per week.

I was prepared to lay out the specifics of the actual fundamentals: the commercial trucking pivot, the Dakota Lithium acquisition, and the solid-state R&D. However, looking at your history in this community, it's obvious you aren't here for an objective discussion; your mind is already made up.

Given everything else going on, I really don't think running a thinly veiled campaign on Reddit is doing your professional image any favors. Frankly it's largely a waste of time on your part to begin with. Take care.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 5 days ago

You should look into Ray Kurzweil if interested in AI.

Whether you believe AI is a bubble or not I think knowing about one of the most prominent tech futurists of the modern eras views would help you sharpen your own thoughts on it.

There's some videos on youtube with interviews including roughly an hour long one from ~ 1 month ago.

I rarely see his name when discussions of AI pop up and I think his views should carry weight in discussions.

Small Gemini summary to get you started if interested in looking into him yourself:

Ray Kurzweil is one of the most influential computer scientists, inventors, and futurists of the modern era. Born in Queens, New York in 1948, his career has been largely defined by his pioneering work in pattern recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), and his bold predictions regarding the future of human-machine integration.

Key Publications

Kurzweil has authored several influential books

  • The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990): Anticipated the explosion of the internet and the rise of AI.
  • The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999): Predicted that in the 21st century, computers would make complex decisions, appreciate beauty, and experience emotions.
  • The Singularity Is Near (2005): His most famous work, which deeply explores the concept of the singularity and the exponential growth of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
  • How to Create a Mind (2012): Explores the reverse-engineering of the human brain to create highly advanced AI.
  • The Singularity Is Nearer (2024): An update to his 2005 book, examining the current state of exponential technologies.

The most prominent thing I think to take away from Ray Kurzweil is his Law of Accelerating Returns. This states tech growth is exponential and not linear.

His futurist predictions have a supposed 86% win rate and two big predictions coming up are LLMs leading to AGI (~2029 prediction but I'd take it with a grain of salt) and renewables (primarily solar) being a key energy feature to sustain power demand.

----------------

Currently still employed with Google as far as I know.

I'll be checking out his 2024 book at some point when I find myself with some downtime.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 23 days ago
▲ 17 r/u_TherealCarbunc+1 crossposts

$30 IREN Leap

Will be adding 1 $30 2028 leap to my portfolio if Iren is still trading below $35 on my next payday.

This trend is way to bearish when the company has improved backlog, pivoted to have the software layer with the Mirantis acquisition. Diversified contract mix, renewable energy and 1.4GW secured grid ready to be built on.

H1 handoff soon.

7.6B cash on hand.

Earnings sometime mid-late Aug most likely

NVDA partnership

NVDA contract

Feel like this one is one of the more risk friendly data center plays in the market with secured grid, focus on renewables and primary pipeline sitting in Texas which is VERY data center friendly and unlikely to experience the same issues these gas turbines are having trying to build in cities

<2x cash on hand with a backlog >$16B and 95% pipeline left to be contracted out. Feels like the bears are really dredging the bottom ranges here

CAPEX fears has the market feeling gunshy but my base case is 90-100B market cap eventually and I find it likely to be much more tbh..

Besides 2028 leaps I only like direct shares no margin

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u/TherealCarbunc — 23 days ago

You should look into Ray Kurzweil if interested in AI and investments surrounding them.

Ray Kurzweil is one of the most influential computer scientists, inventors, and futurists of the modern era. Born in Queens, New York in 1948, his career has been largely defined by his pioneering work in pattern recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), and his bold predictions regarding the future of human-machine integration.

Key Publications

Kurzweil has authored several influential books

  • The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990): Anticipated the explosion of the internet and the rise of AI.
  • The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999): Predicted that in the 21st century, computers would make complex decisions, appreciate beauty, and experience emotions.
  • The Singularity Is Near (2005): His most famous work, which deeply explores the concept of the singularity and the exponential growth of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
  • How to Create a Mind (2012): Explores the reverse-engineering of the human brain to create highly advanced AI.
  • The Singularity Is Nearer (2024): An update to his 2005 book, examining the current state of exponential technologies.

The most prominent thing I think to take away from Ray Kurzweil is his Law of Accelerating Returns. This states tech growth is exponential and not linear.

His futurist predictions have an 86% win rate and two big predictions coming up are LLMs leading to AGI (~2029) and renewables being a key energy feature to sustain power demand.

Iren has compute+renewables at the bottom of the curve of the next leg of exponential growth.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 24 days ago
▲ 13 r/DFLI

Cost to borrow steadily rising

https://preview.redd.it/h2pbwj0s2meh1.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=107bc802bd08f5b5a965c4bcacefb7e91ff2ef8f

Shorts aren't finding many real sellers lately and volumes are low. If buying volume picks up I imagine it will be back to $2 if they're forced to cover. Positive patent developments, new board pick up for the OEM pivot. Still high risk/high reward. I kept my position to something I was willing to ride to 0 or hero, have added 100 here. Maybe it's all hopium but my total investment is less than what I spend a year on vices such as energy drinks.

https://preview.redd.it/ltsrjuax2meh1.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae9e3570ffaf59e587eca3321a53d78ba8f7fb85

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u/TherealCarbunc — 1 month ago

Heavy put OI and we're right in the middle

I'm expecting them to push for the last capitulation tomorrow, Iren is firmly trapped in the delta hedging of the heavy put OI that expires tomorrow.

The business has improved fundamentally with the NVDA partnership, the 3.4B contract, Mirantis Acquisition, the Spain and Australia pipeline expansions.

We'll see if the market lets it go much cheaper. I'm DCAing longterm no leverage add 100 shares today.

This has been brutal but the thesis is still intact for me

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u/TherealCarbunc — 1 month ago

$IREN - heavily shorted this past month

Bears are really dredging the bottom of the stock at yearly support levels. It's seen rising SI since it's last pop and put buyers have been accumulating. Scanning the options chain it looks like breaking $50 & $60 would be triggers for squeezes. Breaking $45 is where the gamma would start to be freed from the delta hedging on the puts. Fundamentally the business has improved since it's last time trading in this range with a 3.4B contract with NVDA to increase the backlog.

High beta high volatility stock, unleveraged positions only.

https://preview.redd.it/34h1a00zpldh1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=01075cdbd5304c8b48c0b623a5538d72c112eca7

NFA, holding 600 shares and I'm just DCAing when clear longterm value presents itself.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 1 month ago

LAES, may spike soon as shorts have dug deep again

https://preview.redd.it/3jk58l5kbm6h1.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd451ec7674bd52c3ce91cd9723e5fa7aaa07daf

Cost to borrow is spiking on this ticker and shares available to short showing 0 on fintel:

https://preview.redd.it/i2x2495obm6h1.png?width=522&format=png&auto=webp&s=aef185c529b456df4c433228d66002308263500b

https://preview.redd.it/so4gddb3em6h1.png?width=1010&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac834ea61d3949ebe720cedfa6ff7cecd6f0d699

I think it would need to break recent highs of $3.9 or the call wall at $4 to really trigger as that's when i noticed shorts piling back in:

There's heavier options chain OPEX on june 18th with a call ladder that would mechanically support a squeeze.

https://preview.redd.it/3er2fb09cm6h1.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b838fa2751d5899090ff3991e0fc83ae9967212

NFA I have 10 2028 $3 leaps I bought just after it dropped below $2 in April that are already well ITM.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago

Heartbeam, BEAT - add to your watchlist to follow developments

I think the TAM of this company is too large not to capture the 30k patients they need for breakeven and to then flip profitable and I believe they can mostly get much larger market share out of a 1.5M patient concierge market, a 2B patch market, and 40B total platform opportunity (per their latest earnings). No clue how long it will take. I'll probably stop adding here while I wait for earnings to see how things are going --> they had a surprise beat last time and EPS is expected to continue improving.

Considering the current MC of $44.8M this really seems like a high risk/ high reward investment slightly de-risked with their partnerships:

ClearCardio: Announced in March 2026, ClearCardio is HeartBeam's first official commercial customer. They are a preventive cardiology practice specializing in early detection and advanced heart health screening. This partnership established HeartBeam's initial footprint in the New York metro, Dallas, and South Florida markets. The agreement involves a staged rollout, incorporating HeartBeam's 12-lead ECG technology into ClearCardio's preventive programs for a subscription fee per patient.

Atelier Health: Announced in May 2026, Atelier Health is a premier, Beverly Hills-based concierge medical practice led by physicians affiliated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. This agreement effectively expanded HeartBeam's commercial launch into the Southern California market

Strategic & Development Partners

Mount Sinai: While not a direct commercial sales customer, HeartBeam announced a major strategic collaboration with Mount Sinai in March 2026. The partnership is focused on combining HeartBeam's 3D ECG datasets with Mount Sinai's clinical expertise to co-develop, train, and validate personalized AI-ECG algorithms for both clinical and at-home wellness applications.

The recent public offering was priced at 0.80 and insiders participated heavily. Mark E Strome who sold 250k shares during the FDA approval surge re-bought 750k shares (on top of the existing 2.9M shares held), showing strong insider confidence.

At a current price of 0.81 I think this is a good opportunity for a RISK APPROPRIATE sizing for a true longterm investment.

Considering their TAM if they capture even just 2.5% of that, that is a massive re-rate at $2B

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u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago

BEAT - a growth story just getting started (FDA approved)

I think the TAM of this company is too large not to capture the 30k patients they need for breakeven and to then flip profitable and I believe they can mostly get much larger market share out of a 1.5M patient concierge market, a 2B patch market, and 40B total platform opportunity (per their latest earnings). No clue how long it will take. I'll probably stop adding here while I wait for earnings to see how things are going --> they had a surprise beat last time and EPS is expected to continue improving.

Considering the current MC of $44.8M this really seems like a high risk/ high reward investment slightly de-risked with their partnerships:

ClearCardio: Announced in March 2026, ClearCardio is HeartBeam's first official commercial customer. They are a preventive cardiology practice specializing in early detection and advanced heart health screening. This partnership established HeartBeam's initial footprint in the New York metro, Dallas, and South Florida markets. The agreement involves a staged rollout, incorporating HeartBeam's 12-lead ECG technology into ClearCardio's preventive programs for a subscription fee per patient.

Atelier Health: Announced in May 2026, Atelier Health is a premier, Beverly Hills-based concierge medical practice led by physicians affiliated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. This agreement effectively expanded HeartBeam's commercial launch into the Southern California market

Strategic & Development Partners

Mount Sinai: While not a direct commercial sales customer, HeartBeam announced a major strategic collaboration with Mount Sinai in March 2026. The partnership is focused on combining HeartBeam's 3D ECG datasets with Mount Sinai's clinical expertise to co-develop, train, and validate personalized AI-ECG algorithms for both clinical and at-home wellness applications.

The recent public offering was priced at 0.80 and insiders participated heavily. Mark E Strome who sold 250k shares during the FDA approval surge re-bought 750k shares (on top of the existing 2.9M shares held), showing strong insider confidence.

At a current price of 0.81 I think this is a good opportunity for a RISK APPROPRIATE sizing for a longterm investment >2 years.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago

For real though, something seems to be brewing?

Price action has been bullish, volume picking up on little to no news. wth is going on lmao?

Saw some piece about a review of Femaseed but that was it

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u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

Why I believe SOFI found its bottom and is currently undervalued

SoFi has been beaten up due to a few things - big tech client leaving in Chime setting fears the tech side revenue won't be as high as it was anticipated to be.

Macro fears around inflation, recession and credit/lending.

Dilution concerns (historically every bit of dilution has been accretive to the business itself and raised the fundamental floor - I believe SoFi is mostly done diluting at this point)

Some facts about SoFi:

It has met or beat expectations on guidance since their 2nd eps report. It has 10 GAAP quarters of profitability. They're currently guiding for 30% revenue CAGR and 38-42% EPS CAGR through 2028. They boast a rule of 40 score of 72 per their latest earnings call.

They've been labelled as the #1 bank.

Have a high membership acquisition growth rate.

SoFi plus membership is growing.

Their aim is to be a one stop shop for consumers and a financial ecosystem.

They've recently announced:

Crypto Wallets

Big business banking

Mastercard partnership

SOFIUSD stable coin

multiple minor acquisitions to strengthen the financial services platform.

→ PrimaryBid extends SoFi Invest (capital markets access)
→ Composer extends SoFi Plus (AI portfolio building)
→ Peach extends Big Business Banking (loan servicing)

Options trading improvements including 0 dte and basic guidelines.

Based on their growth rate I get a forward PEG of <0.6 currently showing possibility of being pretty undervalued. They've been given an incredibly steep risk discount despite having proven to sustain high growth through higher interest rates, student loan pauses, and a regulatory body that was less crypto friendly.

On a technical side it has now bounced just above the 200 weekly ema twice and looks to have stopped aggressively sliding. MACD is showing selling exhaustion, RSI is in nuetral territory which shows it should have room to run.

Further potential catalyst of S&P 500 inclusion upon sustain MC of $22.8B -> They've more than met the other requirements. I think the odds increase every quarter they aren't included with an almost guarantee for sometime 2027 upon sustaining growth.

Macro tailwinds could also bring back sentiment/volume

Historically IPO's perform poorly ~3-4 years. SOFI had its first breakout year last year right on time. It's really just hitting its growth acceleration in my opinion

To me a bank growing at a fast pace with a financial/tech flywheel bringing in >40% of it's revenue in high margin revenue is a steal at a TBV of just over 2x and a book multiple of <2x.

Disclosure: I am holding 4.5k shares with an average of $15.35 and multiple 2028 $15 strike leaps. My accumulation zone is sub $20 and I've been an investor/DCAer since 2022 - i trimmed after it double peaked last year and have been adding those profits back in since Q4 2025 EPS. I plan to hold these until post S&P inclusion at minimum but I truly consider this a stock to accumulate when deep value presents itself and hold for longterm growth / trim if the market becomes too euphoric again.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

Sofi is looking set for a bullish macd cross

https://preview.redd.it/o8lhnils2k2h1.png?width=418&format=png&auto=webp&s=6741cc648f43c4d5893fffcb4cc1f22c3429d4dd

Think SoFi has found its bottom, double bottom rejecting above the weekly 200 EMA, MACD showing signs of selling exhaustion, edging closer to breaking free of the magnetic pull of max pain. RSI in nuetral territory with room to run.

Fundamentals support it being undervalued on its growth with a forward PEG <0.6 right now based on their guidance and growth rate.

Multiple minor acquisitions lately stacking up for the financial ecosystem build out

Growing membership

CEO has dropped ~$2M in the past 2 months into the stock

Suspect that once the institutions start unwinding their puts that it's likely to pop with the downside risk being limited and a "safer" stop loss being just below the weekly 200 EMA which currently sits at $14.8

NFA - I've been stacking sub $20 and have an average of $15.35 currently and plan to hold long term, just sharing the setup for a potential swing.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

EDIT: found out 2024 convertible notes have a strike of 9.75 that allows for ~ 61m in free shorting pressure for the people that hold them. anything over that is a hedged risk and is what is representing the volatility. This probably kills a squeeze attempt without massive buying and holding volume. I'd say this is more a day trade/swing trade stock OR a legitimate long term investment hold. Squeezing will be very hard when they have that much in shares to short with for essentially free.

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/applied-digital-price-target-raised-to-65-from-58-at-roth-capital-thefly-news-2?utm_source=robinhood.com&utm_medium=referral

https://preview.redd.it/ot42wxb0r5xg1.png?width=566&format=png&auto=webp&s=7738ce6a135c720dc6df0e65d3bcb858e4e013ab

https://preview.redd.it/d8crzlk1r5xg1.png?width=1245&format=png&auto=webp&s=737df847811e71bf2d5b12bdbedb568b70be40d9

They've been aggressively defending their short positions after a major catalyst drop yesterday. still hasn't reached new ATH's despite a new 7.5B contract.

I ran some loose numbers and found a projected FMV market cap of 14-15B with a 20x multiple

article in the first link points more to 18-19B MC target.

One of the few data center plays just about fully contracted out. CAPEX is covered from my understanding, no warrants.

https://preview.redd.it/8163o1snr5xg1.png?width=391&format=png&auto=webp&s=687b26a36b43c13d9210042aa23b0db31b146a9b

25x multiple ^

https://preview.redd.it/dx9j7fupr5xg1.png?width=392&format=png&auto=webp&s=46e457972704fb8f086eebca16d31be90c29015e

20x multiple ^

I've been in since $35 and just holding 100 shares for the long term. tapped out on drypowder or I would have gone larger

NFA - do with this what you will. I'll sell at $60 if it gets there or ill continue to hold.

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u/TherealCarbunc — 4 months ago