I believe SOFI is nearly ready for its next upswing.

I believe SOFI is nearly ready for its next upswing.

Previously posted a setup 4 months ago, and anyone that had joined had multiple opportunities to trim and take profits. I think SoFi is near its next bottom. Sofi has been pretty range bound. Its TBV provides a certain valuation floor where it appears institutions are willing to step in to buy under $15.

It's recently been in a downtrend again with an increase in 30m in shares shorted in the past 1 - 1.5months. Think they're likely to cover fairly soon, possibly after another push to test the floor or under buying volume.

One to eye for entries with an appropriate risk management direct shares over calls or potentially ITM leaps if pushed below $15 and don't recommend more than 20% margin on entries in case of continued weakness.

Earnings end of the month, TBV should rise to ~$7.41 based on their guidance (historically accurate/reliable) placing 2x TBV at $14.82 which is likely to be another spot to find institutional support given the companies growth rate. Not fully showing the confirmation on MACD momentum currently but given the years baseline and the fundamentals of the business I think this is one to move up on your watchlist.

Potential failure for a breakdown: Macro and overall market liquidity/movement.

Personally would base my stop loss on a confirmed breakdown below $14.75 and size with that in mind.

https://preview.redd.it/yu08evm9wath1.png?width=524&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbf18482df76d304e7acd89b83be54aadf9d422e

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 12 days ago

IREN - should have hit the SSR list with the -10% drop

Good time to get unleveraged entries in $13B MC is very undervalued for this company imo just outside of the squeeze with shorts really pressing their advantage today shown by a significant number of shares available to borrowing decreasing from yesterday and CTB rising yet again.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago

$IREN is the play for a squeeze

I've followed IREN closely since December. It's perfectly positioned for unleveraged entries at a consolidation range with 30% of the float shorted. Citadel redistrubuted Leopolds port and it looks to have absorbed that supply well.

Think this is a great price for accumulation and when shorts fail to find forced liquidations this has very little room to go anywhere but up.

It's a business really set to explode in AI revenue by Q1 2027 with H1 being handed off to Microsoft and H2-4 set to come by EOY. Q4 revenue should really start to ramp due to Horizon1-2 and finish its nearterm ramp by end of Q1. After that contracts should start being seriously considered for 2027 capacity coming online. They may do the contracts prior if they determine they're unlikely to get better rates. The managements preference appears to be sell closer to capacity

2027 capacity is set to double for contract availability from their secured and with de-risked energy grid for that same capacity - this could represent a 2-3x inncrease in projected ARR from $4b to $8-$12B which represents almost the entirety of todays MC

Disclosure on my position:

I have 2 $40 2028 leaps and 800 shares with an average of $39.75 thanks to some option plays i did this week allowing me to accumulate more

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago
▲ 7 r/sealsq

Are we wrong to trust Carlos or just early?

Honestly just something on my mind as everything but the most beaten down tickers participate in a broader market rally and LAES sells off. Sticky shorts? Does the market think Carlos is a scam? like plenty of positive PR yet the market gives it little credence it seems

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago
▲ 16 r/DFLI

To Will Prowse

Something is going on with replies to posts for me so I'm posting this here.

I've been quietly reading through your posts & replies for a bit, and the feigned ignorance in your sailor post replies comes across as incredibly disingenuous. You have been using a facade of polite curiosity to inject negative sentiment into a community of beaten-down investors, all while claiming you just want to "learn" and simultaneously questioning the intelligence and knowledge of the community. This is with a community that currently has less than a thousand visitors per week.

I was prepared to lay out the specifics of the actual fundamentals: the commercial trucking pivot, the Dakota Lithium acquisition, and the solid-state R&D. However, looking at your history in this community, it's obvious you aren't here for an objective discussion; your mind is already made up.

Given everything else going on, I really don't think running a thinly veiled campaign on Reddit is doing your professional image any favors. Frankly it's largely a waste of time on your part to begin with. Take care.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 2 months ago

You should look into Ray Kurzweil if interested in AI.

Whether you believe AI is a bubble or not I think knowing about one of the most prominent tech futurists of the modern eras views would help you sharpen your own thoughts on it.

There's some videos on youtube with interviews including roughly an hour long one from ~ 1 month ago.

I rarely see his name when discussions of AI pop up and I think his views should carry weight in discussions.

Small Gemini summary to get you started if interested in looking into him yourself:

Ray Kurzweil is one of the most influential computer scientists, inventors, and futurists of the modern era. Born in Queens, New York in 1948, his career has been largely defined by his pioneering work in pattern recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), and his bold predictions regarding the future of human-machine integration.

Key Publications

Kurzweil has authored several influential books

  • The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990): Anticipated the explosion of the internet and the rise of AI.
  • The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999): Predicted that in the 21st century, computers would make complex decisions, appreciate beauty, and experience emotions.
  • The Singularity Is Near (2005): His most famous work, which deeply explores the concept of the singularity and the exponential growth of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
  • How to Create a Mind (2012): Explores the reverse-engineering of the human brain to create highly advanced AI.
  • The Singularity Is Nearer (2024): An update to his 2005 book, examining the current state of exponential technologies.

The most prominent thing I think to take away from Ray Kurzweil is his Law of Accelerating Returns. This states tech growth is exponential and not linear.

His futurist predictions have a supposed 86% win rate and two big predictions coming up are LLMs leading to AGI (~2029 prediction but I'd take it with a grain of salt) and renewables (primarily solar) being a key energy feature to sustain power demand.

----------------

Currently still employed with Google as far as I know.

I'll be checking out his 2024 book at some point when I find myself with some downtime.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago
▲ 17 r/u_TherealCarbunc+1 crossposts

$30 IREN Leap

Will be adding 1 $30 2028 leap to my portfolio if Iren is still trading below $35 on my next payday.

This trend is way to bearish when the company has improved backlog, pivoted to have the software layer with the Mirantis acquisition. Diversified contract mix, renewable energy and 1.4GW secured grid ready to be built on.

H1 handoff soon.

7.6B cash on hand.

Earnings sometime mid-late Aug most likely

NVDA partnership

NVDA contract

Feel like this one is one of the more risk friendly data center plays in the market with secured grid, focus on renewables and primary pipeline sitting in Texas which is VERY data center friendly and unlikely to experience the same issues these gas turbines are having trying to build in cities

<2x cash on hand with a backlog >$16B and 95% pipeline left to be contracted out. Feels like the bears are really dredging the bottom ranges here

CAPEX fears has the market feeling gunshy but my base case is 90-100B market cap eventually and I find it likely to be much more tbh..

Besides 2028 leaps I only like direct shares no margin

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

You should look into Ray Kurzweil if interested in AI and investments surrounding them.

Ray Kurzweil is one of the most influential computer scientists, inventors, and futurists of the modern era. Born in Queens, New York in 1948, his career has been largely defined by his pioneering work in pattern recognition, artificial intelligence (AI), and his bold predictions regarding the future of human-machine integration.

Key Publications

Kurzweil has authored several influential books

  • The Age of Intelligent Machines (1990): Anticipated the explosion of the internet and the rise of AI.
  • The Age of Spiritual Machines (1999): Predicted that in the 21st century, computers would make complex decisions, appreciate beauty, and experience emotions.
  • The Singularity Is Near (2005): His most famous work, which deeply explores the concept of the singularity and the exponential growth of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
  • How to Create a Mind (2012): Explores the reverse-engineering of the human brain to create highly advanced AI.
  • The Singularity Is Nearer (2024): An update to his 2005 book, examining the current state of exponential technologies.

The most prominent thing I think to take away from Ray Kurzweil is his Law of Accelerating Returns. This states tech growth is exponential and not linear.

His futurist predictions have an 86% win rate and two big predictions coming up are LLMs leading to AGI (~2029) and renewables being a key energy feature to sustain power demand.

Iren has compute+renewables at the bottom of the curve of the next leg of exponential growth.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago
▲ 13 r/DFLI

Cost to borrow steadily rising

https://preview.redd.it/h2pbwj0s2meh1.png?width=617&format=png&auto=webp&s=107bc802bd08f5b5a965c4bcacefb7e91ff2ef8f

Shorts aren't finding many real sellers lately and volumes are low. If buying volume picks up I imagine it will be back to $2 if they're forced to cover. Positive patent developments, new board pick up for the OEM pivot. Still high risk/high reward. I kept my position to something I was willing to ride to 0 or hero, have added 100 here. Maybe it's all hopium but my total investment is less than what I spend a year on vices such as energy drinks.

https://preview.redd.it/ltsrjuax2meh1.png?width=1228&format=png&auto=webp&s=ae9e3570ffaf59e587eca3321a53d78ba8f7fb85

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

Heavy put OI and we're right in the middle

I'm expecting them to push for the last capitulation tomorrow, Iren is firmly trapped in the delta hedging of the heavy put OI that expires tomorrow.

The business has improved fundamentally with the NVDA partnership, the 3.4B contract, Mirantis Acquisition, the Spain and Australia pipeline expansions.

We'll see if the market lets it go much cheaper. I'm DCAing longterm no leverage add 100 shares today.

This has been brutal but the thesis is still intact for me

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

$IREN - heavily shorted this past month

Bears are really dredging the bottom of the stock at yearly support levels. It's seen rising SI since it's last pop and put buyers have been accumulating. Scanning the options chain it looks like breaking $50 & $60 would be triggers for squeezes. Breaking $45 is where the gamma would start to be freed from the delta hedging on the puts. Fundamentally the business has improved since it's last time trading in this range with a 3.4B contract with NVDA to increase the backlog.

High beta high volatility stock, unleveraged positions only.

https://preview.redd.it/34h1a00zpldh1.png?width=949&format=png&auto=webp&s=01075cdbd5304c8b48c0b623a5538d72c112eca7

NFA, holding 600 shares and I'm just DCAing when clear longterm value presents itself.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 3 months ago

LAES, may spike soon as shorts have dug deep again

https://preview.redd.it/3jk58l5kbm6h1.png?width=510&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd451ec7674bd52c3ce91cd9723e5fa7aaa07daf

Cost to borrow is spiking on this ticker and shares available to short showing 0 on fintel:

https://preview.redd.it/i2x2495obm6h1.png?width=522&format=png&auto=webp&s=aef185c529b456df4c433228d66002308263500b

https://preview.redd.it/so4gddb3em6h1.png?width=1010&format=png&auto=webp&s=ac834ea61d3949ebe720cedfa6ff7cecd6f0d699

I think it would need to break recent highs of $3.9 or the call wall at $4 to really trigger as that's when i noticed shorts piling back in:

There's heavier options chain OPEX on june 18th with a call ladder that would mechanically support a squeeze.

https://preview.redd.it/3er2fb09cm6h1.png?width=430&format=png&auto=webp&s=7b838fa2751d5899090ff3991e0fc83ae9967212

NFA I have 10 2028 $3 leaps I bought just after it dropped below $2 in April that are already well ITM.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 4 months ago

Heartbeam, BEAT - add to your watchlist to follow developments

I think the TAM of this company is too large not to capture the 30k patients they need for breakeven and to then flip profitable and I believe they can mostly get much larger market share out of a 1.5M patient concierge market, a 2B patch market, and 40B total platform opportunity (per their latest earnings). No clue how long it will take. I'll probably stop adding here while I wait for earnings to see how things are going --> they had a surprise beat last time and EPS is expected to continue improving.

Considering the current MC of $44.8M this really seems like a high risk/ high reward investment slightly de-risked with their partnerships:

ClearCardio: Announced in March 2026, ClearCardio is HeartBeam's first official commercial customer. They are a preventive cardiology practice specializing in early detection and advanced heart health screening. This partnership established HeartBeam's initial footprint in the New York metro, Dallas, and South Florida markets. The agreement involves a staged rollout, incorporating HeartBeam's 12-lead ECG technology into ClearCardio's preventive programs for a subscription fee per patient.

Atelier Health: Announced in May 2026, Atelier Health is a premier, Beverly Hills-based concierge medical practice led by physicians affiliated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. This agreement effectively expanded HeartBeam's commercial launch into the Southern California market

Strategic & Development Partners

Mount Sinai: While not a direct commercial sales customer, HeartBeam announced a major strategic collaboration with Mount Sinai in March 2026. The partnership is focused on combining HeartBeam's 3D ECG datasets with Mount Sinai's clinical expertise to co-develop, train, and validate personalized AI-ECG algorithms for both clinical and at-home wellness applications.

The recent public offering was priced at 0.80 and insiders participated heavily. Mark E Strome who sold 250k shares during the FDA approval surge re-bought 750k shares (on top of the existing 2.9M shares held), showing strong insider confidence.

At a current price of 0.81 I think this is a good opportunity for a RISK APPROPRIATE sizing for a true longterm investment.

Considering their TAM if they capture even just 2.5% of that, that is a massive re-rate at $2B

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 4 months ago

BEAT - a growth story just getting started (FDA approved)

I think the TAM of this company is too large not to capture the 30k patients they need for breakeven and to then flip profitable and I believe they can mostly get much larger market share out of a 1.5M patient concierge market, a 2B patch market, and 40B total platform opportunity (per their latest earnings). No clue how long it will take. I'll probably stop adding here while I wait for earnings to see how things are going --> they had a surprise beat last time and EPS is expected to continue improving.

Considering the current MC of $44.8M this really seems like a high risk/ high reward investment slightly de-risked with their partnerships:

ClearCardio: Announced in March 2026, ClearCardio is HeartBeam's first official commercial customer. They are a preventive cardiology practice specializing in early detection and advanced heart health screening. This partnership established HeartBeam's initial footprint in the New York metro, Dallas, and South Florida markets. The agreement involves a staged rollout, incorporating HeartBeam's 12-lead ECG technology into ClearCardio's preventive programs for a subscription fee per patient.

Atelier Health: Announced in May 2026, Atelier Health is a premier, Beverly Hills-based concierge medical practice led by physicians affiliated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center. This agreement effectively expanded HeartBeam's commercial launch into the Southern California market

Strategic & Development Partners

Mount Sinai: While not a direct commercial sales customer, HeartBeam announced a major strategic collaboration with Mount Sinai in March 2026. The partnership is focused on combining HeartBeam's 3D ECG datasets with Mount Sinai's clinical expertise to co-develop, train, and validate personalized AI-ECG algorithms for both clinical and at-home wellness applications.

The recent public offering was priced at 0.80 and insiders participated heavily. Mark E Strome who sold 250k shares during the FDA approval surge re-bought 750k shares (on top of the existing 2.9M shares held), showing strong insider confidence.

At a current price of 0.81 I think this is a good opportunity for a RISK APPROPRIATE sizing for a longterm investment >2 years.

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 4 months ago

For real though, something seems to be brewing?

Price action has been bullish, volume picking up on little to no news. wth is going on lmao?

Saw some piece about a review of Femaseed but that was it

reddit.com
u/TherealCarbunc — 5 months ago