u/Tricky-Ad-6225

Why are we pumping? 7% for MDA is the equivalent of 20% for other space companies?

What’s stoping Amazon & Jeff Bezos from acquiring BO? Essentially pulling a Rocket Lab. As we saw in RKLBs presentation today the main value of Iridium is spectrum. SpaceX has Echostar for their spectrum and Amazon has Globalstar for theirs. Wouldn’t it make sense for Amazon to vertically integrate themselves?

Now one thing that jumps out at me is that for Amazon LEO to work, they actually need to launch their satellites to space (which they are far behind schedule in doing so), and we know BO isn’t going to be launching much very soon. So Amazon, in the near term, is stuck with using SpaceX for launch. Would be weird for Amazon to own a launch company and use a competitors. That’s like Warren Buffet drinking Pepsi!

What do you guys think? In the future, maybe 5 years from now, could Amazon and BO merge?

Relax guys. This company has been doing nothing but executing. If you liked MDA at $65, then you should love it at $50.

So as we all know, Space stocks have taken a pounding. We are in one of the most volatile sectors (another one is quantum but I’m not invested in that). With all this volatility, primarily to the downside since SPCX IPO you need to ask yourself, as an investor, why? Why is there a sell off? Why is RKLB 44%, why is ASTS down 50%, or NASA down 38%. Has the thesis on these companies changed at all? What’s going on?

1. Most of these companies are trading are absurdly high valuations. You can’t even look at PE because these companies aren’t even profitable yet. PS is through the roof.

2. Blue fucking Origin. New Glenn exploding on the pad was really the initial downward catalyst for all of this. People were scared. That’s another launch provider having delays and more reliance on the industry on SPCX. Everything is getting delayed including Neutron. This naturally will set satellites providers back as the line for launch increases and the price remains high.

3. Planet Labs dilution. Essentially diluted their stock at ATH. Welp, I guess if you’re gonna do it, that’s the best time.

4. SPCX IPO (the big one). A lot of people thought SPCX was going to pump the sector, and it did (pre IPO), but it turns out it ended up being a liquidity vacuum. As SPCX went up NASA, UFO, ROKT, JEDI went down and then as SPCX went down so did those same ETFs/sector.

5. Semis are fucking killing it. Why would the average investor put their money into a sector that is in the up and coming versus a sector that is red hot right now. Look at SOXX, DRAM, MU, SNDK, NBIS, whatever. These stocks(/sector) are having generational runs.

With all that said: has the thesis on these space companies changed? I don’t think so. The USA is still in a space race 2.0 with China. Foreign countries such as Canada are showing clear signs of interest in developing/maintaining a space presence, whether it be defense, security, commercial, or others. Rocket Lab is still producing record breaking numbers/launches, AST Space Mobile is getting their satellites in orbit, and other.

Stay strong fellas. Don’t bite off more than you can chew.

Also I was wrong, that was not the bottom the other day.

I think this is the bottom for space stocks. We may see a little bit lower but I don’t foresee us going much lower than this. You see lots of stocks and ETFs hitting previous support levels. You never know now with SPCX being so big and volatile.

I’m hoping we even see a sector rotation from semis to space.

SPCX’s moat is solely in launch yet it’s getting priced like a monopoly.

SpaceX is years if not 10+ years ahead of RKLB, BO, Firefly, China, Russia or anyone else when it comes to launch. I’ve been interviewing with companies in the Aerospace industry and some of them are waiting for over a year just to get a spot with Falcon9. Don’t get me wrong, I’m excited for Neutron, but Rocket Lab probably has a decade until they start launching Neutron with the same cadence as F9. Companies like Planet Labs and ASTS aren’t waiting for Neutron or other companies, they are fighting over slots for a reliable launch provider like SpaceX. Especially ASTS who probably wants nothing to do with BO for a while 😂

This brings me to the next point which is connectivity. Starlink is the workhorse of SpaceX. High margins, high revenue, and sticky revenue with the monthly subscriptions. But the market acts like SpaceX will be dominating the connectivity market when there are dozens of players out there. ASTS is in a great position to capture a significant chunk of the D2D. There are other players such as Iridium, global star, and others.

Now there’s AI. Do we really think SpaceX is gonna be making trillions of dollars from AI compute. There are also plenty of players in the data centers in space market outside of SpaceX. Starcloud and Planet Labs are also working on that front, along with others.

With that said, the success of all these other companies does rely on SpaceX’s launch capabilities and then bringing down launch costs significantly with Starship.

SpaceX is in a win-huge win situation. But they are not a monopoly by any means. With all that said, I just bought my first 5 SPCX shares today! Not much but it’s honest work.

SpaceX jumped from the 9th largest company in the planet (right in front of Tesla) to the 6th largest company in the world.

They passed: Saudi Aramco, TSMC, and Broadcom

It’s currently at $167, sitting at $2.1T.

If they merge with Tesla, the combined MC ($3.6T) would put it right behind Apple (4th place).

Note we are talking about valuation here, not earnings 😂.

Shout out to everyone who got their shares at $135.

Where is SPCX market data? It’s halted for so long? I don’t really follow most IPOs so I’m unaware of how they work, I’m assuming every time trading gets unhalted it’ll get halted again within 30s but I don’t see anything? Just $135, no PA. I was excited to watch from the sidelines but there’s nothing to watch?

Let’s not get it twisted guys. SpaceX is years ahead of any other competitor in this industry. Numbers rounded -

SpaceX
Falcon 9 launches: 640
Falcon heavy: 10
Starship: 10 (test flights)

Rocket Lab
Electron: 90
Neutron: Pushed back from 2024 to 2025 to 2026

Blue Origin
New Shepard: 38 (suborbital)
New Glenn: 3

Who knows how long until Neutron and New Glenn are flown with regular cadence?

Not to mention Starlink.

Just wanted to remind all the Elon haters here how revolutionary of a company SpaceX is.

Now is it overpriced at IPO, most definitely.
Will I be buying any time soon, fuck no.
Is this IPO a scam? Probably.

But let’s not forget who the leader of this industry is.

https://www.reddit.com/u/JIN\_ius/s/L33LSnYlx5

It’s gambling folks. I just closed out my tiny short for a nice lil profit but I know this stupid stock might pump again. Just don’t be like Korean guy

My 4 main positions (listed by portfolio allocation) are MDA (by far), RKLB, ROKT, ASTS, and UFO. I have started taking profits here and there for the past 2 weeks. I now sit at around 22% cash. If space stocks keep ripping up until the IPO then I could go as high as 35% cash. My theory is as follows:

The whole space sector has been on a hell of a run.
UFO up 62% YTD
ROKT up 47% YTD
NASA up 65% YTD (March “IPO”)

Semis are also on an incredible run rn
SOXX up 81% YTD
SMH up 61% YTD

The biggest difference between space and semis is that semis are (very) profitable right now. Nearly all the popular space stocks are trading at crazy valuations while most of them being unprofitable. Even MDA, which is seen as undervalued compared to its peers, has a PE of 77 (NVDA at 32 for comparison). Now I’m not saying being a value investor is a good idea because those idiots look at PE and PS all day just to severely underperform the market year by year. What I am saying is something has to give.

What I figure is SPCX IPO is a buy the rumor and sell the news situation. All the stocks on amazing runs right now and I think they will come down hard. BUT!!! I do think short term these stocks will continue pumping post IPO, medium term these stocks will crash hard and I will be there with my 22%-30% cash to scoop up some deals. Long term thesis still stands: Space is the future, and SPCX will be at the forefront of that with other companies like RKLB and ASTS behind them.

MDA has set new ATHs 7 of the last 9 trading days. Not many other space companies are doing that right now.

Pretty much the title. Satellites contain highly aligned optical components. Just to get them to their working environment you essentially have to put them through a crazy earthquake (launch) and then you’re not able to service them after that. How df do optical and optomechanical engineers achieve this?

Shock mounts? Flexures? God?

Lockheed is a huge company and makes tens of billions per year. Pretty far off its ATH. I don’t focus too much on this company but may start building a small position after some DD. What do yall think?

QQQ is up ~30% is the last 30 (trading) days. Last time it went up that fast was when 🥭 🌮 on the April lows last year, going up 30% in 29 days. Before that it was Covid, 83% in 112 days. SOXX is as overbought (on the weekly) as it’s ever been. And SP500 is up 18% from its previous low. All I see is: “X stock is up 800% this year and here is why it’s still undervalued and could go another 100%.” I don’t even want to mention the names since we all know them.

This can’t go on forever, can it? Everything and everyone is winning (except for value investors, a moment of silence…). What causes this to stop? Can it even stop? Space, chips, memory.