u/UltimateTraders

Good morning everyone. Once again, I am thankful for an example in case people ask me questions. Sad for anyone that has been long NKE . We can all agree that this was a premium brand! This is still even on the DOW Jones 30! [The Dow 30 is an index of 30 companies] We can all say that this company deserves a premium… But if you look at the numbers.. What a dayum telling story! Take a look at the sales/earnings, the growth in both from 2021 thru 2024… and then the serious drop off. For those years, sales were all over or near 50 billion. Earnings per share was between 2.50 and 2.76….. It is insane though that an apparel company, foot wear even, had a PE of 60-70.. Ridiculous!

I always say, if you check  back to 2021 on Reddit, I don’t even like giving over 40x on any company! ANY! And that is one with insane growth, insane margins, mostly tech! [75%+, which means for every 1 dollar sold they are making 75 cents or higher on earnings! When you have this kind of room, you can cut costs, you can lower prices, fire workers etc.]

Fast forward to today….

NKE revised guidance they are seeing sales down near 10% for the year!!!

The problem? 2025 were easy comps!!! This is not 2021-2024 where the company was on a growth trajectory.

They revised earnings to 1.25 to 1.35…..from 1.67!!! HUGE HUGE DROP!!! And huge revise down in sales…

20 x 1.35 = 27 Dollars…

Does NKE deserve a 20x PE? Or will you swing and wait until better days… will they come? Will they turn it around? I remind you, I wrote yesterday how PRGS and MU trade 6-7x earnings and they are both growing. I wrote how a good company should trade near 10x…

Current SPY VOO SP500 trade at 23x, grow 20% earnings and sales 9%...

So should NKE even trade at 20x????

DON’T DO IT! LOL sorry…. At least I will not do it… I had said I would buy NKE several times, even as much as 50… recently I said 30…. But the actual execution keeps coming down!

I wrote weeks ago how at 90 I will buy LULU …. On NKE I will not touch it unless 25!

And that is giving a premium for bad performance!!!! That is giving NKE a 19x PE!!! Or stay away! Not saying it will drop there, but unless around 25….. I do not see a clear path to growth… It can happen, but I wrote and still write…. 90% of companies do not ever come back to a peak [Highest sales and earnings] The 10% that do, normally take 4-6 quarters on a turn around…. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EVEN NKE CAN DO THAT IN 4-6 QUARTERS!!!

So, even if they do, and it does happen, it may be more than 18 months/ 1 and ½ years… Will you wait? And if it is the 90% that never hits the sales and earnings peak?

So I read all over Reddit and on X … How buying NKE at these prices is an insane opportunity… This is not the same Nike from 2021 to 2024… Name is still big, but execution has falling bad… not off a cliff yet… but bad!

 

The title has many stocks I was bidding on. Unemployment did tick up… wage growth has slowed…. Market is on fire, as we were pricing in 1 more rate hate and we may not need it just yet…. I am on up ETOR 25.85 , APLD 24 and SKWD 54.25. My goal per trade is 200 to 600. Lets go!

 

I sold 75 shares of ADBE 238 to 246 [Then I got back in 238 my horse! I still have 343 block, it is free now, I am up big on net gains]

I sold 75 shares of INTU 287 to 291

I am in 250 APLD 24

I am in 250 NVO 37.50

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I am sorry to see that CALM had very bad earnings. I have not traded it in well over a year… I felt it was unsafe to even watch it and removed it from my main watchlist Plays at least 9-12 months ago. Numbers started to turn and you could see it.. The reason I am writing about bad earnings is because it is easy to recognize and you can then compare it with your own company. Then you can spot serious issues.

CALM makes most of their money from Eggs, they do some prepared foods.

Egg sales decreased by 59.5% year over year! [Egg pricing decreased by 55% over the past year] Even prepared foods sales decreased 13% [So remember it is important to check pricing on your company! Margin, competition]

CALM swung to an operating loss of 82.2 million, after recording a profit of 249.2 million the same period last year. They came in at a loss of 1.26 per share, they missed analysts estimates for a loss of 49 cents.

The same period last year they earned 4.12 per share!!!! [WHAT A SWING!]

I no longer highlight bad earnings but wanted you guys to recognize what bad earnings are….

Now egg prices are all over the place, as we see, so this doesn’t mean the company is done, also the financials are fairly good where they can weather the storm for 1-3 years depending on costs, other factors… So I am not saying CALM is done, but it is not safe to trade, in my opinion. There cash is strong, debt levels not too bad, but I would rather wait for the company business to at least start turning.

 

Now several people asked me yesterday to double check some stocks they have, or for my opinion on certain companies.

We do not run companies! It is the best to diversify. I strictly use the SP500 SPY VOO to have a look at the companies I am currently investing/trading in.

For example:

SP500 currently trades at 23x earnings. For this multiple you are getting 20% earnings growth and 9% sales growth. The current company you are looking at… what sector is it in? Their most recent quarter, is it growing sales at 9% year over year? Earnings? If so, how many times earnings is it trading at?

Let me use ADBE as they just reported earnings. [Thursday, September 10^(th), FACTS!]

13% sales growth year over year

[4% earnings growth year over year but 30 million less shares than a year ago! Almost 8% retired] 20% earnings growth per share

We look at headlines! Actual income increased by 4% but because they bought back 8% of the entire company the earnings per share increased by 20%! So on surface, which most care about this was amazing!

ADBE purchased 9.5 million shares in the last quarter! Remember this is a secret way a company can raise earnings. [The less shares a company has, the more the income is, as it is spread across a smaller float] Even if we do not take this secret weapon into consideration….

You have 13% sales growth and 4% earnings [20% because of buybacks, what we see without opening the 10Q]

The company will earn about 24.75 on the year, trades near 230 or near 9x earnings…

It is a software company, a name brand! High margins, very good financials… There is growth! Now, I am not saying it should trade at 23x like the SP, I am saying it should trade near 14-15x as a name brand, software company.

24.75 x 15 = 37.125

[I have 2 blocks of 75 shares 238 and 343]

So hopefully this explains it..

And a month or 2 ago I said for me, for me, SPCX is should be 500 billion or 38 per share [Share count] The growth is tremendous, I am not blind… I am also saying maybe 1 day it should be worth 2 trillion… BUT NOT NOW!!!! They lose money, don’t have the sales yet!

I am certain of course, sales will grow, I can see them making money, for sure! NO DOUBT!

But why do I want to pay a certain price right now, for something that may, or may not come true years from now.

TSLA has failed.. Roadster delayed again… Where are the robots? Where are all these cabs? Every car is supposed to be safe enough for self driving… Where are these chips?

FAIL FAIL FAIL! Maybe 1 day TSLA can do it, yes, maybe they can, but the stock price already reflects perfect execution right now!!!!

 

PRGS earnings after the bell. I have 100 shares at 50.25 and 100 at 56.50.. The company is trading at just 6x earnings. Sales grew 7%, earnings grew by 15% last quarter. I am saying it should trade near 10x earnings.. or close to 65…

It should not trade at just 6x earnings, financials aren’t as good because they did MA, they made some purchases, but those purchases are resulting in sales/earnings, but I am discounting the financials saying 10x. [Just said ADBE should be 15x]

 

I have to run…. Tons of things I must do for CT.

JBL very good earnings!

Good morning everyone. I shared more pics of the trees that fell on my property. It will cost me about 6,000+ to just get rid of them, it’s a huge mess. They did damage some fences. I will not make an insurance claim because I have way too many properties. 1 claim, if somehow my insurance increases by just 5% on everything is way more than this claim! [My total insurance coverage is near 120k! My highest premium coverage is for an older building, it is actually my largest at the moment, an 8 unit, it is about 9,000] I only want to make a claim on something that is 30k+…. I just closed on 3 properties a few weeks ago, I am getting the new 11 tenants acclimated. I am doing renovations everywhere, all my teams are all over the place. So, definitely overwhelming, no question. This is a stock forum, but I want to share why it is very tough a lot of times for me to try and focus on stocks. The market is definitely my passion, but my Real Estate portfolio is so large, and not passive it is like a full time job. I get compensated for it, but still.. It is now larger than my investment/trading portfolio, it crossed this year…

I am on pace to have over 800k in Capex/repairs/maintenance, a record also….

I am somewhere over 130 units… To give you an idea last day of 2021, January 31^(st)….. Rolling into the pandemic I had 50 units…. During the worst time during summer of 2021, 23 of my 50 units did not pay rent! I lost nearly 200K in back rents that I could never get back….[Luckily the market was on fire for me]

 

So as I wrote yesterday, we are over valued in my opinion. I explained why. No one controls the market, no one even controls a stock! When a company does make tons of cash they can directly impact the auction with buybacks. [Increasing demand, retiring supply] NVDA

The stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment. The way I view the market is my perspective thru 30+ years of trading…. It doesn’t guarantee future results…. By any metric we have higher valuations now than ever….

This can be attributed to more money being in the market, more traders.. Simple supply and demand…

If you have very affordable houses in your area… let us say your neighborhood normally has 10 houses for sale at any given moment… all of a sudden new investors come in and buy them within a week….meaning there is no more supply, the prices will go up…..

So more and more money is just pouring into the US market… We are seeing higher multiples than ever… Over time, this has also happened, but it is what you are comfortable with. I started trading in 1994, and in the 90s the average multiple on SPY VOO SP500 was maybe 14? In the early 2000s to 2010 it was maybe 16? And by near 2020 it was near 18? But we are now trading near 23!!!!!

So if you are going all in, trading you are accepting to buy things at these valuations… I am in like 60% cash [And that is only low because I am taking tons of money out for real estate]

I am scaling back big time on trading unless I see us below fair value…

If earnings comes in at 330 and I am willing to give 21x…. That means we need to be around 6,600, without some crazy event for me to see great deals…

I am by no means say we are going to 6,600.. But no one is forcing me to trade… We will have big earnings kick off in about 10 days… We will see where earnings will end up, it has been tremendous.. Sales growth, tremendous… And it is the only reason I am willing to even give the market 21x! [I just said pre 2020, it was more like 18x]

Where do I get these figures?

I am deep in real estate, and I still aim to make back my initial investment in about 7-8 years. So that is 7 to 8x…. I am getting a return near 9-10% on my real estate. [It isn’t passive but it pays off]  But if I am doing that, why should I pay 23x???? WHY???? Please tell me! Maybe for NVDA because they keep growing sales/earnings, buy backs and investments…..

But why pay 200x for TSLA , decline in earnings, flat sales? Make it make sense!!!!

So, I am by no means saying we are going lower, no one knows! No one! But unless I see us near 6,600 why would I go all in…

Ok let us say we are on pace for even 340 full year earnings. 21x that is 7,140…[340s is the high end, we had 272 for 2025, this is incredible growth] Please also keep in mind SPY kicks companies out and puts new ones regularly! Which is why this is a safe index! But I mean that is a cheat code for earnings!

So that said, I do not want more than 2 longs today unless I sell something. The title has a tons of things I saw and I was shocked…. I now have near 30 bags… if the market falls, 90% of stocks will fall, no matter how cheap we think it is… and if I can get my properties for 7-8x why would I go all in on stocks at these valuations?

 

I am in 250 ETOR 25.85

I am in 500 KVYO 14.80

I am in 100 NFLX 69.75

 

Wow KMX I traded this horse a ton 30s and 40s, maybe 6 months ago! It was worth the risk reward.

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Boy, some acts of god/nature this past year. This was the most snow this past winter that I have seen in 20+ years maybe? I have a lot of properties, 30+, but I spent nearly 20k.. 20 Thousand on snow!!!! This was definitely the most snow since I have ever been a landlord. In early July, there was tremendous storms and I had trees fall on 2 houses…. Then this past weekend, more trees! Luckily they didn’t fall on a house… but this time they are all over, and damaged some cars…. I told, and asked tenants many times, to get renters insurance for these emergencies. My leases say that it is a requirement to get at least 50K coverage… It is cheap! Maybe 20-30 a month with an auto policy… I used to make it mandatory, but then the tenants would have it for 2-3 months, then stop paying/cancel. I cant win…. So I need to address this past weekend… Also, I am told a tree fell on or near my own house in Bristol, CT. It has been up for sale since April 1^(st)… I have it listed for 379,000. I finally fixed some water in the basement issue about 4 weeks ago, soon after, I did get 2 offers… I am not negotiable though, I don’t care what rates are, and I might use my house a little…

Just recently I spent 5,000 on Gutters/downspouts, 10,000+ on basement/foundation repairs, pouring a new concrete slab [basement used to be dirt]. I paid 350,000 March of 2025. The house was completely redone. I need a place to crash for early AM meetings/court, a place to watch repairs… It is a 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom, 2,400 square foot house. There are older homes going for the same or slightly less. My house has a brand new furnace, windows, floors, appliances… I have videos on X. No rush for me, it is costing me about 3,300 a month. [Mortgage, taxes, insurance, utilities]

 

The title has many stocks that are at or near my fair value. My main watchlist is called “Plays”, it has 300 tickers. I have about 25 bags at the moment. Many of which were accumulated before 2026. I do not want more than 40 bags going into December 1^(st). So I will not add more than 3 positions per day unless I sell a bag. Wednesday is the last day of the 3^(rd) Quarter. So do not rush! In 2 weeks we will have 3^(rd) quarter earnings kick off where we will have plenty of chances to do trades. Earnings has been amazing. [Much of these gains are from investments in IPOs and Pre Ipos so watch out!] NVDA and AAPL account for 15% of SPY VOO SP500, the most in history for 2 stocks in the index. [It is cap weighted] So it is hard to really get an idea of the entire economy when the top 10 stocks accounts for over 40% of the entire index!!! NVDA just announced a 150 billion buyback! The most in history, they also had 85 billion left on their previous buyback. You can do that when you are making tons of money! NVDA is also invested in tons of public and private companies… great to diversify! So they are definitely doing the right thing.

Current estimates for the SP500 earnings is about 330-340

Earnings for 2025 were 272. So this is about 20% growth.

As such, as I have said, I would be willing to give us 21x earnings. [Prior to 2020, I used 18-19x]

21 x even 340 = 7,140 [We are at 7,750]

So at least a near 10% drop to be fair value?

What if earnings 330 ? Then fair value 6,930?

Earnings coming soon!

We also have to be weary for 2027…

What if there is no growth in earnings for 2027?

If so then maybe instead of a 21x….  a 19x?

340 x 19 = 6,460?

I am not saying this will happen! I am saying there is a lot of downside risk..

As such, I have been pretty careful since about May/June of 2025 [When we actually were near 5,000!]

 

I sold 250 shares of PINS 17.85 to 19

I sold 100 shares of ROOT 46.50 to 48.50 [I have 1 block at 94 from September of 2025]

I am in 150 shares of SKWD at 54.25

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I left for CO [Colorado 9/4/2026 and came back yesterday very early morning 9/21/2026]. 2+ weeks. I spent about 10 days or so in Turkey with my girlfriend. I met her in 2012 in Flushing, Queens, NYC. A few years ago she got called in to work. She had worked remote in 2023 for the company. But was told she had to come into the office in early 2024. It is definitely a tough situation, as I am handling so much and can go to CO every 2-3 months. I did share lots of pics and videos from the vacation.

Remember, money is made, it can be made again, but the impact we have on people’s lives are forever. Go out there, touch some grass. Spend some time with loved ones, family, friends, make lasting memories. For me it goes like this:

Health

Family

Time

Money

[Just generalizing 4 big pillars of life]

 

[Health] This is because if we aren’t healthy, or in pain every day, if we will die tomorrow, what is more important than health? You would trade all the money in the world, even your family for your health.

 

[Family] If you have no one to share ideas with, no family, no one around you… then who are you fooling? What and why did you accomplish, do what you wanted to do, if you have no one to celebrate with, no one to tell stories to.

 

[Time] You can not buy this back no matter how much money you have. You can buy truly buy genuine, sincerity from family/friends. This to me, is slightly less important than family/friends because let us say you have a ton of money, very good health… but you are alone for your entire life! To me… what is the purpose? I do not want to live till 100 and have no one to share in my glory.

 

[Money] It is very sad that people trade their health, family and time for money. You will often hear people say for money, they will disown family, they will rob and kill people [damage health], 98% if people work, and hard [trading time for money]… I would hope that one day we all have the liberty where we are financially secure and we have an option, freedom, to do what we want to do in life.

 

I did make quite a few trades over the last 2+ weeks but I have not done any new DD. 0! I do not recommend it… I also do not rely on charts. [They are past tense] I do need to do a lot of DD, A LOT! We do now have the help of AI… It used to take me 60-90 mins to do new DD on a company, it now takes 10-15 mins, tops. We should be doing new DD on our companies at least once every 90 days! AT LEAST! Don’t be lazy, we have AI now! Definitely after each earnings. Ideally, we want to do DD once a month…..

What I am looking for in my DD….

Profit margins, expenses… sales up/down… income up/down… In the last 3 months did they introduce a new products [Iphone 18 and Duo example AAPL ] updates on the business/contracts…. The last 30 days headlines are flying on SPCX , big contracts, no doubt, it is just the valuation I do not like…. NVO getting crushed, news last 15 days about LLY competitors, sales on their drugs GLP1s slowed.. These are examples of why we should check DD at least once a month… These companies are fluid! Constant news, some daily! I don’t expect everyone to check news/DD every day on every company…

GURANTEED if you spent 6-8 hours a day doing DD on stocks/companies you most certainly will make more than your job! CERTAINLY! I started working in 2012 selling cars at a Honda dealership. [I was not forced to work, a tragedy/Incident happened] Prior to 2012 I was doing 2-4 hours a day DD, daily! I only had a goal of making 100k+ a year since about 2010 and have done so….

2026, my real estate portfolio has finally surpassed my stocks/investments… I started in 2017. [Retired from a W2 in 2021… started working a W2 selling cars in 2012]

Investing/trading sure does give us freedom! [My real estate has been and was funded from my stocks] I do not think everyone should be trading. They can, but it isn’t easy…

I do no know the rate of traders that make more than 10% per year [10% of their capital] for a string of 5+ years in a row… but it is likely below 5-10%.. meaning 1 out of 20 that do this are successful… is that you? I don’t know, but don’t just see the glitz and glamour.

 

I hope everything I do, write daily… since January 2021 has helped others with ideas… tools to grow wealth, get freedom!

 

The title has a lot of ideas, stocks that I am looking closely at. DKS dropped near 120 again, risk reward is good. GRAB 2.70-3 definitely speculative but worth it to me… NVO 38-40, if you swing and wait…. ADBE had recent earnings and I still believe fair value is 365-370 and may write about in within the next 15 days. INTU was my horse and hit 295 the other day….

I was trading S at 12-15 SAIL same prices … on Reddit, Ultimate traders in the search type in either symbol. They grew sales and earnings at 20+ loved it back then… I need to do new DD on them. They are on my main watchlist but no new DD.

 

Some trades from yesterday:

I sold 250 shares of ETOR 27.90 to 29.50

I sold 100 shares of NFLX 70.50 to 73.50

I sold 100 shares of TITN 54.50 to 57.50

I sold 250 shares of PINS 18.25 to 19.45

I am in 100 shares of FISV 46

 

I have to do a ton of stuff for CT. Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Very busy day yesterday. Very busy again today. I am going on a vacation starting tomorrow for about 2 weeks so I wanted to take care of everything by today and tomorrow. The official closing on the 3 property deal in Bristol should be 9/9. The deal was signed around 3/21. A lot of hiccups with this deal. The last hiccup was the title was not clean. There were some issues, the main thing was that they tried to convert the garage into a 1 bedroom apartment and did work illegally and that took several weeks for the bank to clear it. Like 6 weeks! I had to get people to come in, close permits, estimates, the town to get involved what a mess! Later in the day I met the main contractor on my larger building, I let him know I want pictures everyday of work done. The building inspector came, let us know some things that needed to be addressed. The roof work will get started today or tomorrow [they don’t know I am coming back to down to check in] and should be done by Sunday. It is a huge roof… The huge porch should be done around 9/18, 2 weeks from now. We will see, I hope. A ton of head aches, no doubt, unfortunately.

 

By some miracle I was able to sell DUOL at 167. 75 shares, I was stuck from January 12^(th) at 165. I had been trading a block of 75 shares from back in November, many times for 3-10 dollars at a time [225 to 750 per round] and finally got stuck… Phew! I am not going back in unless 135 or below.. Not a bad company, the growth has slowed but the market no longer regards it as a darling… and that is KEY!!!!

DUOL 20% growth in sales, about 15% growth in EPS… the PE is now 58…. [Estimate of 18 analysts is 2.73…….

So where do I get my 135 or below?

I am not paying anymore than 50x this full years estimate.

2.73 x 50 = 136.50     [Next years earnings estimate is 3.30]

Market is the market and no longer loves this name and neither should I then….

 

This brings me to what to do with LULU. This had been my horse of late. [Estimates were at 10.24 by about 25 analysts, the company lowered there own guide to 9.48-9.73] They also see sales declining near 5% for the year….As such, I can no longer say fair value is 140….

Please understand, at 1 time this was a darling with a 50x PE… Also understand that NKE currently has a near 22-23x for a decline in sales and earnings. As it stands LULU will open with a 9x PE….  If I still feel this is a premium name brand, the financials are good, I may give this a 13x multiple and use their about 9.50 to come at near 120… but the question is do you have patience? What if you don’t feel this is a premium brand anymore… what if you feel this brand is dead? It should be a discount? If so, then the multiple should be 8 to 9x and then you may come up with a fair price of 80! So, what I plan to do is put in a bid for 1 lot at 93.. if it hits great, if not, no problem…. I am not positive if this is a premium brand….. NKE still is to me, and if NKE fell to 35 I would get in.

 

I am up on 250 shares of APLD from 25.95.

 

Some great earnings:

SWBI [Tiny]        MAMA [Tiny]         IOT      AOUT [Tiny]         PL [Growth]        ZS

 

Some very good earnings:

PDEX

 

Good earnings:

NX         BBCP        AMBA     PATH     ASAN       DOCU      GWRE

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Super short. I am meeting some contractors today, taking a look at some renovations, I may look at a unit that is coming back to me because of major renovation… To make a long story short.. 1 of the tenants I put in a motel during the porch rip off had 2 cats, 1 dog [I didn’t charge her a monthly pet fee, which some charge 100 per month for multiple] Mind you, tenant had an extra adult… She has been there since September of 2019 when I purchased the property. Good tenant, very large 3 bedroom, almost 1,500 square feet, needs a ton of upgrades but hard to do with tenants in them, rent is just 1,300. She didn’t pay for August which is fine, because of reno project… but she wanted me to pay for 3 adults and pets for the motel… I agreed to pay 10 days out of my pocket for this, out of my kindness, this was about 2,000, she as very upset… because the porch took longer than the 10-14 days I was told… I told her, the lease had 2 adults no pets, and I never charged her for pets, I would pay the 2 adults fee, which is 120 and she could pay the extra 80 per day, and she went irate and said it’s the repairs…. So she decided to find another apartment…..

I cant blame her, at the end of the day, I am going to spend maybe 30K completely redo that apartment but the rent will be 1,600 to 1,700. So I will look at that. Check some jobs, take a look at the 3 property 11 unit deal. Tomorrow I will sign all the paperwork for new 3 property deal. Bank doesn’t have a clear to close, but today the building inspector can meet me by my porch/roof where I put 35K down on a 120K job… I am glad the main contractor is now on the scene, but said it took all of this to get him there. If the building inspector says its good, maybe we can go further, if not, fire him/sue and move on….

 

I will be so busy I will be in and out from trading and I have been of late.. It is very hard to manage all the personalities of the tenants, the contractors, the cities… I am definitely overwhelmed. Much of this lately is this contractor, had he done what he was supposed to, I would be much less stressed. Putting 3 tenants in motels 3-4 weeks… losing 1 tenant because work delay… may have to sue…. How can I focus on trading…

All the money that comes from real estate, every last dollar, I take 0… I put right back in… I am on pace to spend between 800-900K this year in repairs/maintence/capex. That is on average of near 75 per month… I am probably getting near 200 per unit cash flow on each new purchase after all expenses [not including repairs and capex]. I aim for 400-500 on my buys per unit, but so hard now.. This includes mortgage, insurance, taxes, basic utilities [electric, water].

Example.

I buy a 3 family property for 360k with 25% down.

The mortgage, interest, insurance, taxes may be about 2,900… Water and Electric may be about 200 per month…. That puts it at 3,100 a month. The rent collected 3,700..

[This is actually a 3 family I just bought!]

So 600 per month margin… But I am doing the roof, windows, rotted wood, landscaping etc.

So just giving you an idea.

Excellent earnings:

AVGO       AGX        HPE       SNOW [Valuation]        FIVE      NTAP        CIEN

 

Very good earnings:

NTSK        CHPT

 

Good earnings:

BRC      DLTH       WOOF     TLYS      VSXY

 

I sold 250 shares of AMKR from 45.75 to 47

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Will be super busy next few days. Going to CT tomorrow and Friday. Meeting contractor, lawyer, doing big closing on 3 property deal…. Hoping at least this big contractor takes over the job [stops subbing it out] that is what I wanted in the first place. This is a stock subreddit not a real estate forum… it is tough because to me, the market is overpriced right now, so it doesn’t make sense for me to really be trading a lot.. It has not been below fair value since around April/May of 2025. At that time we actually dipped as low as 4,800. Earnings/sales have been great, but based on earnings we have been getting, I see fair value maybe near 7,000? Maybe… So it isn’t like we are way over… but I don’t see steals… and as such, I am trading carefully… My real estate portfolio this year has finally surpassed my investment portfolio… Also, I don’t have a property manager so as I grow more and more units it becomes way more cumbersome. I am closing on 3 property, 11 units… I have 130+ units…. 3 teams, 8 guys in total, but all the tenants reach out to me first and then I call guys nearby the locations and send people out. It is non stop…I am a therapist.. It goes Saturday’s, Sunday’s, 1am, 5am…. I am not complaining just giving you a day in my life and letting you know this is not passive at all…… I am pouring every dollar right back into the real estate… I am actually taking out money from investments to repair/and grow bigger… but that is more so to stabilize situations and know that my money is safe in those properties…

The objective is, when I do start building something brand new next year…. I am under contract…. That I will allow 1 person to live for free there, pay him to manage the 50 or so units there and pay him/his team as he proves he/them can handle more… hopefully…

That is the plan at least…. But still the market is my passion it is just so hard to focus on the market when my whole day is jam packed with real estate stuff.

 

I got a ton of great questions over the weekend about NVDA and SPCX … and last week as well. It also pertains to GTLB today, PANW CRDO as well. I truly wish I knew the science of the re rate.. The market dictates what premium, multiple they will pay for a stock/company at anytime… There is no science… as we see with GME AMC , 1 day you are an internet darling years later you are trash…. GME risk reward at 18 actually isn’t that bad these days!

NVDA a few years ago, started growing fast, late 2022, early 2023.. this is before the AI craze, it actually had a multiple of 100+…I will openly admit, I said that was crazy… CRAZY! I argued how I rarely give over a 60x, but if anyone deserved a 60x, it was going to be NVDA… Fast forward 3-4 years later…. The company is still executing… and has done everything!!!! They have gone above and beyond anyone, and everyone could ever, EVER have imagined….

How the hell can you say this should have a near 20-22x PE.. How does that even make sense… that a company years ago… who promised the world… who had a PE at 100x+… who we all said wow, wow, wow! Let us see if it happens…. Then it actually does….

Then it is still happening… and now we are bored…. And now it is near 215… So someone is asking me why if I say NVDA should be 300+ and maybe even 400…Do I not just put every penny I have into it… Man, the market decides…. Not me… by the time the market wakes up… who knows if NVDA actual results do slow down… and if they do… maybe the E in earnings of the PE actually fall… Eventually… the mammoth will slow down….

PANW CRWD PLTR are great companies, any company that can grow sales and earnings 20% year over year is a great company to me. [Remember, a very good company in SPY VOO SP500 does 10-20%, so that is where I get 20% and above] But if the SP500 currently trades at 23x and these companies trade at 50, 75, 100x.. does that make sense? Is the valuation good?

I was trading GTLB a ton as it dropped under 30… especially under 25, I argued how it was worth at least 36.. maybe even 40… The market didn’t care about it…. Now it is over priced again… Man, that is not up to me….

PYPL TTD is in the dog house… There is no science or no way anyone can know when the market decides what stock will get a multiple when… We just know that certain stocks were darlings, we remember symbols… We know that stuff like TSLA and SPCX anything Elon has been like gold for 6+ years, that we know…….

 

There are a lot of good deals, but because I will be in and out, I will be very careful and because I may or may not do trades.. I don’t want to put a lot of symbols or trade ideas in focus, especially if my own mind is not in it….

 

Great earnings from those in the title.

 

I did get 250 shares of AMKR at 45.75.

 

Good luck.

Good morning everyone. A ton of back and forth and a ton of headaches I do not wish upon anyone. This definitely comes with the program, unfortunately. I spent all day talking with lawyers, contractors, building inspectors, a ton of back and forth……. The large company did say they will stand behind whatever work is done, by whoever is working there and I just have to list whatever issues, if any that there are and they will be corrected. That there is insurance for everyone on site. It was a crazy back and forth. A lot of legal involved. The work is stopped, I have tenants still in a motel, sadly for me. I am going to meet with the contractor and the building inspector on Thursday, if we cant resolve the issues, I guess we will stop, I will fire them, and sue… I was hoping after Sunday, to avoid a lawsuit, keep the materials that were on site [About 7-8,000 in lumber] and ask for a 15,000 refund, we both take a small loss and walk. I left a 35k deposit…. If that is not enough of a headache…

 

I have this 3 property deal in Bristol. This deal is with TD Bank signed in the middle of March, they are definitely tough. Around the end of July the titles come back and there are a few things on the title. 1 of these 3 properties had open permits… the big issue they tried to convert a garage into a 1 bedroom apartment and never did inspections…. The work done so far is all illegal…. It is not the best work, and we have been back and forth with and finally agreed a few weeks ago that because they did this work, there should be 20,000 put in escrow to complete the unit [which will cost about 70k to complete, or even complete a nice garage]… now they are balking…. I have put 270K deposit on this deal… This is not a great deal, there are also a lot of fire code violations, so I am ready to walk this deal if they do not give me this credit. Just headaches…….

 

Next week I will go on a little vacation. We should all go out and touch some grass and enjoy some things in life. Money comes and goes, we should remember why we are even making money to begin with. Money is made again, it used to be paper, now its digits on a screen, digits on your phone screen, it is sad that so many people put so much value in each dollar, but I understand completely. So many of us do live pay check to pay check, and when you have to fight just to survive it is so hard to think about anything else. I also did not come from a well off family. I was raised by a single mother [my father was killed], we weren’t poor, but we were below middle income. We all must find ways, we all have different paths…. What I always tell people is to look for opportunities, we all have them, we just have to pay attention to them. It is not luck, people that do well in life are not lucky. I do not mean rich….I mean wealthy people…. Rich people, maybe they are rich for a temporary period…… wealthy people are set for many years, life…. They get “lucky” over and over and over again, they have keen eyes, they look for things…. They are kind… they see and treat people certain ways… they have certain morals, standards….. respect.

Most of all they have value and others see it.

The market is down hard on war tension…. War on… war off… No one knows… It is hard to make something irrational, rational…. I also don’t know how to solve this Iran problem…. I also do not know the highs and lows on Bitcoin… I do not pretend to know it….

I can tell you GOOG GOOGL makes money tons of it… I can tell you NVDA even at 300 is cheap, based on the execution we are seeing. I can tell you based on what we are seeing that PYPL is worth 65-75 and because someone wants to buy them, the buyout should be the high end, 75! These are things I can see now.. things I can base on the last 4 quarters, things I can measure the next 2-3 quarters…… Anyone that tries to predict something 1-2 years out, is just guessing! ME INCLUDED!! I wouldn’t know… THEY SURE WOULDN’T EITHER!

 

I would be willing to trade up to 3 new positions today, will be very busy.

 

I did sell 100 shares of DOCU from 65 to 65.50 [Was stuck since Mid January, wasn’t the plan of course!]

 

Since January 12^(th) I been stuck in 75 shares of DUOL 165.. LFG!

 

Good luck!

 

Great Earnings from : SBSW [Wow old horse haven’t done DD in ages]

 

Very Good earnings: MDT

 

Good earnings: NIO

Good morning everyone. Super short. I am getting all the details together for my case. I made some videos yesterday. Pretty upset. Left a 35K deposit on a 120K job on May 22nd. I was told it would be 4 to 5 weeks out. This was for a large porch and well as a roof. The porch was ripped out August 3rd and 4th. I had evicted 1 tenant, luckily. 3 tenants I had to put in a motel, 1 other tenant decided to move. It has been a real ordeal. They decided to come maybe 1 or 2 days out of the 10 or so days people showed up. They have subbed this out. I want to do a cease and desist letter. Bring in a contractor that I do know. I chose a big name because I did not want something like this to happen on a big job like this. The craftsmanship is also sub par. I had someone that was willing to do this job for 95k! That does ok work! Elite roofing that I know, and had wanted, was going to do this job for 108k....

I am in 250 shares of APLD 25.95

Pretty good earnings from SAIC , man I remember trading this sub 90!

Good morning everyone. I received a very critical and amazing question yesterday. I actually got this question about a month ago as well, but I didn’t really pay it as much mind back then, but since I wrote the post yesterday about SPXC and NVDA I really thought about it for a good 10 mins.

Why did I put a price tag on SPCX SpaceX of 500 billion or 38 Per share?

Why not 100 billion? Why not 1 trillion? Where did that come from?

The main reason is the market chose, to give this man, Elon about 115 billion for free, to throw darts at the board, ideas, for coming to market and trying to see if he can invest in RD, buy new companies, new ideas, hire people etc… This 115 billion came via IPO and Bonds. [This is more than the 20+ years that TSLA has raised by the way since existence] By the way, I am sorry, TSLA is on pace to make between 2-3 billion for the entire year, the sales are near 100 billion, flat, their margins have dropped below the other car makers, the company growth is done, it does not deserve the 65 fair value sorry…..

So back to SPCX … SPCX is in a serious growth phase. Growth did grow 90% to 7.8 Billion [Remember NVDA 106% to near 100 billion by the way] but we are talking SPCX and its 2 trillion current valuation. So it is very hard to value a company that is losing money…. Very hard, no matter who targets the sales and earnings growth, we are all going to be wrong…

I just read the fool himself, Elon, say sales will be 3.5 trillion in 2030+, DUDE said we would have full self driving before 2020, in 2015, what a joke…None of us are going to be right….

However, there are 12 analysts and they have earnings next year, not this year, but next year near 1 dollar…. There are 13.6 billion shares….

So let us give Elon the benefit of the doubt and say next year’s earnings, 2027.

40x earnings = 40 dollars

38 per share is about 500 billion….

This can change quarter to quarter of course… We have to see execution, maybe he knocks it out of the park… I would hope so….

Because the stock is 2 trillion!!!!

THE STOCK IS 2 trillion now!!!!

THERE IS ONLY DOWNSIDE RISK IF THIS DOES NOT HAPPEN!!!
WHAT IS YOUR UPSIDE??????

Now, I understand, most traders these days, they don’t care how many shares there are, they don’t care about market caps, they don’t care about fundamentals, not at all.

They see a stock price, they see it go up and down, and they just want to offload it to someone else... they do not equate how many shares there are available and can not relate overall share count to a cheap or expensive stock, hence AMC GME in the past, hence what is happening now with TSLA SPCX …

It is simply a supply and demand, issue at the auction aka the stock market and has 0 to do with the company… and I get it… and that is why post pandemic, this all has me dumb founded because more and more traders came in and they made this a lot harder, because things don’t make sense… stocks did not meme like this prior to 2020! You would get it on occasions… Not 10-20 a day!!!!! Social media people sharing videos and tickers everywhere, its insane the stock manipulation… just insane!!!!

So because he raised 110-115 billion, there are estimates of profits and near 100 billion in sales for 2027, I will say 500 billion current market cap is fair to me to buy…

This doesn’t mean at all, not 1 bit that I think SPCX will go there.. NOT AT ALL, it may not even go under 100… but for me to be bullish, I would need to see it close to there, or the facts to get way better…..

Oddly GME   ….. The risk reward is not that bad now…. 6 years later…. LOL 11 billion raised from dilution and bonds… 9 billion roughly cash left…. So 2+ billion cash burned.. CEO is so damn dumb… too bad he didn’t pay me 5 years ago for ideas….I said all of this 4+5 years ago… Dilute, close all stores ASAP, hail mary Bitcoin… invest in real companies… man what a doofus….

 

PYPL I did extensive DD again this AM. I have no current position and will go back in around 50. No problem with that. 42 analysts have them making about 5.39 this year. They actually revised up to this number on the most recent earnings report. On that report sales growth was 5%... Earnings for the year will be around 6-8%. Definitely not great. The growth days are over… But if you take 12 x 5.39 you get about 65 and 14x about 75… If you are selling your company you should get a premium.. At least the high number.. The financials are very strong, even with all the buybacks, they have strong cash flows and they are buying back insane!!!! They had 1.8 billion free cash flow last quarter….. They used 1.5 billion to buy 33 million shares… Over the last 12 months… PYPL itself… ITSELF has purchased 6 billion in shares… So let someone else buy them for 50 billion? The company generates 7-8 billion in free cash flow per year!!! Very good financials. Growth is dead… 5% yes.. but this is a premium brand….. Premium brands should not trade below 12-14x…. At 52 this trades below 10x again… COME ON MAN! Here we go dog house! You need to test your patience….

 

If you followed me… See my patience before in PYPL NOW CRM PATH ANF

 

Excellent earnings:

HAFN [DD Wow]        AFRM        RBRK        MRVL

 

Very good earnings:

ESTC         S       ADSK

 

Good earnings:

ULTA        WDAY

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Many of you are new here, or maybe not new but haven’t been following me since January of 2021. I post here daily, on trading days for free, don’t care to get paid… I get 0 from Reddit, X or Youtube, don’t even care to. [I would be interested if I could get 10,000 a month without dedicating a lot of time, if that is even possible, if not, not interested] I am not here to kiss no ones ass, Elon bought Twitter for free, yea, free! He used TSLA shares that were up because it was hocus pocus black magic retail meme pump. I said what I said, I don’t care if you like it or not. I am not here for friends… I do hope you respect me, at least in hindsight… I know 5 years ago, man did people hate my guts on GME AMC and Cathie Wood, I hope now, looking back, they are like…… damn, Nathan did all that… he tried to educate us, didn’t get paid, didn’t even make that much on GME puts [I made a little, didn’t trade AMC options or commons] and I was laid the gauntlet everywhere!!! EVERYWHERE! I was banned and called a shill everywhere… People were like who the FUK is this guy.. Why does this guy care so much, what is in it for him etc….

Friends… in the 90s it was all hype and speculation, there were no sales, no earnings, that was the original rise of retail, and the formation of the internet…. I was lied to daily…..

And some of the most pain I have ever felt, ever… EVER is being lied to..

It is the #1 thing I hate the most about the stock market/trading… is being lied to.

And what is the saddest thing is this…..

When you want to go buy a new TV or a new phone you will spend days, weeks on its purchase….. You want to shop for new clothes, even a new hair brush… You may spend 60-90 mins…….

BUT TO Invest 100, 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 or even more….. you will do 0 DD, listen to someone you have never seen in real life, never spoke to… because they have followers, talk about stocks….. or because you saw clips on social media on the next hot stock or crypto… That stuff makes me sick… SICK!

And I know, it is actually my fault for being empathetic, it is my flaw for wanting to help people, for being fulfilled if I help people achieve freedom that I risk myself going in and I say things like WTF!!!

TSLA is TRASH! ELON is Pinocchio. SPCX is pipe dreams… 99% of the world thinks he is god… Morons like Ron Baron, who may be worth billions says SPCX should be a 10 trillion dollar company… LOL think about that… THINK THINK THINK… TSLA THINK THINK THINK…

WHERE THE FUK ARE THEY GETTING THESE NUMBERS FROM ?

They are definitely from Mars because I have 0 Clue and I have been trading since 1994…

Know that January 1^(st) of 2020 before the Meme fiasco, Elon was worth near 20 billion, ask AI!!! TSLA was worth near 100 billion… Ask AI! There is nothing TSLA or he did to create that much value in 6 + years.. It is all hype, speculation… he has the world fooled….

I am glad that NVDA came out with these insane numbers so that now we have a reference point.

Because now you can be like… hmmm….

SPCX is near 2 trillion, Nathan says it shouldn’t be more than 38 or 500 billion….

But NVDA is 5 trillion. Ok so what am I getting if I buy NVDA which is near 20x by the way…

You are getting a company that grew sales at 106% to 96 billion….in a quarter!!

You are getting a company that grew earnings 126% to 60 billion…..in a quarter!!

You are getting a company that is on pace to do about 410 billion in sales for 2026. That is set to earn well over 200 billion in 2026… And for this you are paying just over 20x earnings…

This is happening now….

For SPCX LOL!!!! They will lose billions… will not even have 50 billion in sales all year…LOL
are you kidding me…

Once again, I am not saying, as I said in the past, that SPCX does not have a future, but why the hell would I pay 2 trillion now, for a trash company, with space/mars like valuations when I can pay earth like prices now NVDA when they knock it out to MARS!!!!

I rarely give stocks a 40x, but if any company deserves it, it is NVDA… And if this had a 40x it would be near 400 or 10 trillion!

At 40x 1.77 for TSLA that is 70.80 share price.

TSLA does not deserve a 40x… Hence my 65 fair value is a very high premium for very very poor performance as a company. Step back and get your heads out of the sand! I am not here for likes!

NVDA has a near 20x PE!

By the way, NVDA first reaction after earnings was 203!!!!

 

Man I threw 6 bids yesterday. No fills… I missed by pennies… PENNIES!! So mad on DKS and now after seeing AMKR premarket got dayum WTF!!!!!!

I bidded 120 on DKS low was 120.40

115 LULU     low was 115.30

47.50 AMKR    low was 47.64    WTF!!!

 

Man did we all see ANF if you look back, did a lot of DD on it.. Same on NFLX same on PYPL waiting for PRGS to wake up!

 

Excellent earnings:

NVDA [106% Growth 96 Billion, 126% earnings growth 60 billion]            OOMA [Tiny]            P            SNPS           CRWD [Don’t like this valuation though]           CRM         MBUU [Shocking Tiny and how, Old horse from 5+ years ago]

 

Very good earnings:

URBN           VEEV           NTNX

 

Good earnings:

PAHC            HPQ [May add to Plays and watch the dip]             A          OKTA        DG         TD [Just don’t buy investment properties with them]         DLTR       NAT       BURL

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I really did extensive DD on DKS yesterday and this morning. I also used AI as well. I looked at the official 10Q, compared the numbers. I read the earnings calls, checked the insights… man oh man… I said it even before they did it… Why the hell did they pay 2.5 billion for the sinking ship that is Foot Locker.. but they did it… I could understand though. It is a huge, huge name brand, known everywhere… The foot print is huge, to be honest… I didn’t even know until yesterday, how much larger Foot locker foot print is! How global it is, how vast. Foot locker has close to 2,500 stores… While Dicks has about 890 stores.. Foot locker actually reaches more regions and is more global.. but if you have followed me for years, I have always said, quality over quantity… it doesn’t matter how busy you are, how many sales you make, if you cant make more money… and in this case it is eye popping that with 890 stores, how much better those stores do than Foot Locker!!!

Shocking….

People need to stop thinking about the stock market as mysterious, especially because you see TSLA SPCX and PLTR at stock prices that defy any logic or any fundamental, mathematical sense…. DKS makes sense! Most companies are supposed to make sense man! DKS deserves to be in the dog house.. The downward revision is drastic… Drastic! They have reduced full year by over 2 dollars to near 12 dollars a share… However it hovers at near a 10x PE…

If you separate out these 2 businesses, which I did, what a story!

Last quarter…

Dicks had sales of 3.85 billion, it grew those dollar sales at 5.6% year over year, they did so with 4.9% growth in number of sales… on those 3.85 billion in sales they made 485 million….

Foot Locker had 1.74 billion in sales, [Remember 2,500 stores compared to 890!] and on those sales they lost 32 million! Nuff said!

For the full year Dicks says their name brand stores will have 14.5 to 14.7 billion in sales and on those sales they will make 1.54 to 1.6 billion……

While the Foot locker brand will sell 7.4 to 7.5 billion and lose 40 to 50 million!!!!! Terrible. The big flip in EPS was because prior to this quarter they had expected to earn 110 to 150 million dollars from foot locker not lose 40 to 50 million….

So the question is this, do you think management is throwing in worst case scenarios? Any good news the stock rallies? Easy beats?

Do you think management is so inferior that in just 1 quarter they can go from profit of 110-150 million to a loss of 40 to 50 million?

Do you think Foot locker is doing that bad? Is the consumer doing that bad? If so… why are sales up at Dicks and not Foot Locker?

So I don’t believe the numbers will be that bad, that is my opinion and this is my DD.

As such my fair value on their 12 dollars EPS is 12 x 12 or 144 per share at the current time… That can change of course…

As we know, the stock market is a live auction and it is in the dog house……

So my plan:

 

I will like to buy 2 blocks of 100 shares.

Preferably 115-120

Then

110-115

 

And wait… There is no guarantee it goes there, we just know it is in the dog house as it deserves to be. They should not have bought the company. This is not NKE where as a whole, sales and earnings are down drastically, by the way, NKE still holds a PE above 20!!!

I am saying DKS with the news I have read, should have a PE near 12… The SP500 SPY VOO trades near 23…..

 

Some excellent earnings:

HEI           SMTC         DY

 

Some very good earnings:

STRT [Tiny company not sure if I have seen it]         ANF

 

Good earnings:

NCNO       ELMD       INTU [Eh Guidance]          DCI          SJM          PLAB          SFL

 

I sold 250 shares of AMKR 47.50 to 49.45

I sold 250 shares of ETOR 30 to 30.50 [It was up nice no news, it was just 28, was not the plan I wanted to reset under 29.50]

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Nightmare in CT. I have been sharing my big renovation journey on X. So eventually, after getting 1 of my lawyers involved the big contractor did respond… the issue is, instead of them showing up on the job site, it seems they subbed it out…. And the problem with that is, you have no clue with the quality of work, what you are actually getting. I am pretty upset, I mean if it turns out great, I guess it shouldn’t matter, but this is 3 months late, and I expect that at least a few times a day they had better come out to monitor them… had I known they would do this, obviously I wouldn’t have hired them, but it doesn’t say anything about this in the contract, and the towns are so small, you wouldn’t think any contractor would do this, the town has about 10,000 people. The neighboring town too! So it has been driving me nuts. I have been on it all day….

 

So I actually have 21 bags, not 18.. I also have EOSE 5.25, SLQT 1.10 and AVEX 24.90. These 3 are speculative stocks. When I say speculative, I mean these are companies that have not made solid money for 5 years… To me, you had to have made money for 5 years to be a solid company. I mean solid money, like 1+ billion in income.. Not sales, INCOME! 5 years… This doesn’t mean that the company you may be buying is not a good company, but I am saying a solid company… to me, there are only about 50 companies, not an index, that I can just buy, with no concern and know, in 20 years I will be just fine… Stuff like:

AMZN JPM META AAPL MSFT GOOG GOOGL HD WMT KO

I recommend an index.. There are plenty of very good companies, but I do not think there are more than 500 or so solid companies… which happens to be the number of the SP500 index. SP500. This is why whenever you are unsure if your company is good or not, or how to decide if what you are buying is good or not, or how to measure, just measure it relative to SPY VOO.

Currently, earnings are amazing… subtract out the IPO earnings [SPCX Anthropic Investments] you still are getting current growth near 20% and sales growth near 9%.

The current SP500 trades near 23x..

So is the stock you are currently trading…

The earnings report… What was the earnings? Did they have year over year earnings 20%? Sales 9%? Are they trading 23x more than earnings?

At least that is a good reference point. I say this because I am still being asked what is cheap, what is a good buy, what is expensive, this is still how I weigh companies, then I use my own formula and years of experience to see what kind of value I put on based on things I have seen in the past.

 

Stuff like Bitcoin TSLA SPCX there is no rhyme or reason. There is no formula, no mathematical nothing that can explain its price. So do not even try. You will just waste brain cells doing so. I am tired of reading about Bit coin halving or this is a cycle, or this person says he is Bullish or Saylor says this… He doesn’t know a damn thing, not a single thing!!! NO ONE DOES! This is an auction… When it comes to stocks, you have an actual company, it has sales and earnings, the stock price is supposed to reflect the prospects and what is going on there….. unless you are TSLA or SPCX ….

I am in stuff like SLQT EOSE AVEX on prospects.. I am in these 3 bags because of prospects, not because of things that they have done, but things they can do… and I am hoping….

I was in things like ADBE PYPL because of things they had done, their track record and their current execution…. Know your risk level….

That said… when you buy something like ADBE PYPL IBM META or even now NVDA … these are now almost legacy names… they are maturing and the market is now tired of them and giving these names 10-20 and at most 30x PE ratios….

If you have followed me for years, I rarely like to pay over 40x for a reason…. Years ago NVDA, before they actually smashed earnings had a PE 100+, now they are smashing, now they are the truth and the PE is low 20s….. it is sad, but that is the market… it is rare that a PLTR after years can still have a PE near 100…..

Shocking that TSLA can have a 200… shocking!

 

I was in 250 shares of AMKR at 47.50 yesterday and sold 49.45 premarket

 

I did make a lot of bids yesterday but that is the only fill, the title has a lot of things I am looking at, I am in no rush. Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Saturday, there was someone on the “For you” comments that asked if you can make money being a trader, day trader. I commented that I do fairly well. My goal is to make 200-600 per trade. It doesn’t necessarily have to be a same day trade. I regard myself as maybe a swing trader. If the same day it so happens that I see a 200+ profit I will take it. There are days I will make 3-5 trades. Or I will close out 3-5 trades. Friday I closed out 3 trades. I consider a closed out trade, or round. A buy/sell. An Entry/Exit. I have completed about 300 rounds in the year 2026. So for you people that are doing numbers if you want to say the average round is 300. 300 x 300 is 90,000. My goal each year is to make 100,000. No more, no less. I do not have a % gain, no big number gain. I don’t have any pressures, I am doing fine in life. I was working from 2014 a W2 job until I retired in 2021.

I have taken 5 losses in 2026. Those 5 stocks were for heavy hits % wise. EHTH ODD SPT FVRR GLXY [Well this one was less than 3% as it rallied] ODD was over 80% loss but under 10,000. The point is, if you take 5/300 you are going to come up with a 98.5% win rate.

None of my bags, 0 are from 2026. Many of these bags are from 2025, sadly.

 

ADBE 343

BYRN 17.70 and 20.75

DOCU 65

DUOL 165

FIG 49.50

FUBO 34.80 [After Split]

HRZN 7

MNDY 140

NRDS 12

PRGS 50.25 and 56.50

PSEC 3.60

RKT 17.25

ROOT 94

TITN 24 [SOLD more than half at 25]

TTD 36 Avg

VITL 25.40

BEAR TSLA TSLZ 51 [After 20-1 Reverse Split]

BEAR PLTR PLTD 13.20

 

Some of these bags are from 2024 too. A few are from 2023. There are 18 bags as I took those 5 losses fairly recently. I actually thought I had near 30 bags, I do my best not to think about them. MNDY TTD and ROOT are big bags. PRGS is finally coming back. The way I trade, I do limit my upside, sadly. I had MU SNDK WDC NVDA AMD but because I trade out and I check earnings every 3 quarters I also avoid some big drops too. I am not mad at the stranger though, they don’t know me. I am not here selling courses, I am not here for followers or likes… and yes, I should be paid for my knowledge, but I also wont fight for this opportunity. I am doing fine in life. I would like it, or I would like my stocks to go to what I deem to be fair values. I will do the DD, post my DD, write my articles, post positions and if my stocks do what I want them to do, most certainly I would spend hours daily doing it.

This is why I used to spend hours everyday in 2021 doing it. Eventually this didn’t work and I didn’t spend as much time on Reddit, X and Youtube… But I was taken back by that stranger on X so I wanted to see what was up myself.

So the stats are in!

 

Very good earnings on NSCC !

 

I sold 250 shares of FLY 23 to 24.25

I sold 100 shares of LULU 116 to 119.50

I sold 1000 shares of PSFE 6.60 to 6.85

 

Good luck

Good morning everyone. I have a ton of things I need to do. Im still doing my best to get a deal done on a group of 3 properties, it has been a nightmare… they also had open permits, fire code violations, the town hasn’t been there in almost 20 years… but I am pretty close to the town of Bristol. I have to call them later today on another big project. I have to head into town to pay some contractors, take a look at some renovations. I have a very large renovation, where I have a very bad feeling that a known name brand contractor passed off the job on a sub contractor… I am pissed, it is a 120K job, they started about 3 months after deposit [I was told it was 30 days out, and they are subbing it?] I need to get on site. It was started Monday and there are some things wrong… This is the problem of being out of state! This is why I do not recommend it unless you can go have a look every now and then…

This is why I purchased a house last March! The plan was to stay at the house everytime I had a major project… In May/June last year some squatters took over my own house there. I had to evict, I finally got possession November 1^(st). I put my house for Sale April 1^(st). I recommend having an apartment far away from tenants/contractors or people that know you are far away….. My house has been completely redone but there was issues with water getting in the basement which I have finally resolved this past weekend, it took a long time because I never lined in the house… I slept there less then 10 times! Long story short, I know there are out of state investors, I don’t recommend it… that is my experience… but I do a ton of renovations and have a lot of properties…

 

I would like to do some more trading as I did see some opportunities yesterday but I am so busy. Also, with the risk reward, I did not want to have more than 3 brand new positions opened in a day unless I sell 1 of them… maybe if I sold an old bag/position.

I opened.

150 SKWD 54.50

100 LULU 116

250 FLY 23

So when I saw RDDT 144, DECK 88.50, LYTS 20, RKT 13.60, and REZI under 20 I could not do anything. The risk is very high.. We are sitting near all time highs.. What if the market decides to correct… a 10% drop… if so, nearly 90% of all stocks will drop, no matter what price we see a stock at. This doesn’t mean we will drop, it just means the risk reward is high… Bitcoin flying 25% in a week is not a good sign! IT IS NOT! It means the gamblers are on the loose! This is a dangerous sign to me, if you like volatility, hey this can be you, I do not blame you. When I started in the 90s, no question, I loved this… I was considering playing my 3 Crypto plays yesterday but didn’t, CLSK GLXY CRCL … I am wondering if I should play bear MSTR I did in the past … SMST .. Let me think about it…

I do have to leave about 10am.

I traded 150 shares of SKWD 54.50 to 56.

I am in 100 shares of LULU at 116

I am in 250 shares of FLY at 23

 

I am up on 250 shares of ETOR at 30 from a couple of weeks back.

 

Excellent earnings from : ROST   and  UI

Very Good from : BJ

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I have a ton of things I need to get done for CT today and tomorrow. I am pretty upset about some things on a large porch renovation and I want to call the contractor at 8am and get it taken care of ASAP. What sucks, is while the back stairs are being ripped off, I am putting 4 tenants, 4 units in a motel nearby, in what is supposed to be a week, it is about 900 each. The problem is the issue I saw may set everyone back 2-3 days!!! I need to call him ASAP sheesh! I am supposed to go into town to overlook different projects give him a payment, but I am very disappointed in this, rookie mistake. I also got a quote of 230k for a very large project, I am waiting for 2 more quotes on it. I am working diligently to finish the closing on a 3 property deal.

 

Bitcoin is hot again. It is a pure gamble to me. No idea if it can go up or down. I feel the same way with TSLA and SPCX . With SPCX and TSLA it is probably more dangerous because there is no fundamentals to support the actual stock price, at least with Bitcoin you can make up some mumbo jumbo hocus pocus and someone can believe it…

I mean, with TSLA you can see the facts, and you can even see the Chinese are leading with Cars, BYD and Robots, Unitree and the stock is still hot… so it is only a matter of time that he stock doesn’t implode… how it hasn’t, I am clueless because the facts are out in the open… with Bitcoin, there are no facts, anywhere…

At the moment my favorite Bitcoin players are CLSK GLXY and CRCL . I have played the first 2 a few times. CLSK was my horse years ago, I do not like Bitcoin at all, but when it gets hot, these are the 2 players… in the past, I have always played HOOD and COIN when it has gotten hot.

 

On MRNA , it was up nearly 180% in a single day. All over the web people asked what is the next MRNA . Come on man, that is impossible. It is a bio tech. I wrote about it in the AM it was up 80%, I said sympathy NVAX which was up like 30% early then rocketed higher, but didn’t play it myself…. Those plays, it’s a dice roll. At any given moment they can come up with something and hit, unless you know someone that works there, you can not predict it. You can, maybe put like 100 bucks in a bunch of calls/leaps and spread it out amongst a ton of players… like 3 years ago if people followed me I was big on LNTH , it was 2023, I was trading that Bio tech around 40 to 70, it shot to 150, it is 101 now… They have a solid pipeline, but a lot of those man, it is impossible, no one can guarantee it. Especially at MRNA size, and in the SP500 SPY VOO a breakthrough cancer drug? No one, unless you knew someone that worked there.

 

I traded 100 shares of NFLX from 77.50 to 80.50, took me 2+ months

I did bid on LULU VIAV SKWD and SEZL

I am in no rush as risk reward is not good at these levels, that doesn’t mean we crash either, just means danger zone.

Excellent earnings:

BULL          LYTS [Tiny]        ATAT [Chinese]        FUTU [Chinese]       NMM

 

Very Good earnings:

BEEM       BILL

 

Good earnings:

NDSN      DE

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Risk reward with this market. I am no rush to do anything. Earnings and sales are absolutely extraordinary, no question. However, the valuations are more extended than ever. As I wrote yesterday, if something is priced higher than normal, it is your decision to go in or out, to pay for it or not…. Long term, we will always, always make record highs on an index. Inflation is a natural phenomenon. Our companies will always sell more and make more…. This does not mean that your specific company will always make record highs but an index will. This is why I say for 90 to 95% of people a low cost index fund is the way to go. Even VTI [total index is good] Great companies, over a long period of time will always make record highs, think of MSFT AMZN AAPL META GOOGL GOOG HD WMT … For me, I think of about 50 or so companies that I can buy, set it and forget it….. NVDA has only been that company since 2021! Not to say they will not be the company going forward, but prior to 2021, they did not execute anything like this, then again AI was not here yet… the way we see AI now, it really wasn’t here until maybe mid 2024, ChatGPT Claude and it is indeed exploding. My retirements are fully vested all the time. I did work for almost 9 years, mainly in Health insurance, so my 401ks, my IRAs.. they are mostly in Index funds. They are fully vested all the time…. I also have close to 10 stocks long term in my long term trading account….

My day trading account, I am not trading with that much capital, and have not done so since 15-18 months? The last time we were close or below fair value was last March-May 2025. At that time Trump was laying down Tariffs. We briefly fell to 4,800… Check! We had lift off though… At that time, I wouldn’t say I went all in either, but of the cash, I had in the account, at that time, I probably had 40-50% in stocks…. I am now trading with 10-15% stocks. 2020-2021 I was in 90-95% stocks. I am also pulling out tons of money to grow my real estate portfolio. My real estate portfolio has now outgrown my investing/trading portfolio for the first time ever… Trading/investing is my true passion, real estate is like a full time job, especially with no property manager, no super, but there are much lower risks then individual stocks falling 10-20% in a day.

 

I am headed to CT Friday. 2 weeks ago I closed on a 3 family that does need a lot of work. I am meeting some contractors. I am also checking in on a huge job on my largest building at the moment. I am still trying to close my 3 property deal with TD Bank doing the financing.

The title has many stocks that I am looking at and may consider doing a trade.

Wow MRNA , these bio techs, that is why I write, with earnings [Bio Tech] at any given time they can have blockbuster results, or receive a buyout offer from a giant, whom sees they have insane potential… these companies are the only ones where PE does not matter…

PE does not matter if a company with 0 sales, discovered the cure for a rare diseases and PFE wants to buy that company for 5 billion…. EXAMPLE! And PFE buying that company for 5 billion, they can turn around and sell the meds for 50 billion!!!! MA at its finest… And it happens in bio tech…. NVAX was just 7 … I was looking at NVAX risk reward?

I sold 100 shares of LULU 121.50 to 122 [Definitely not the plan, it just dropped to 114 and I have kept trading this and will keep doing so]

 

Good luck!

 

Excellent earnings:

OPRA        ADI           KC [Chinese]        KEYS

 

Very Good earnings:

VIK          ZIM [Buy out already]            TGT

 

Good earnings:

EL

Good morning everyone. The debate and comments rage on…. People attack me constantly, daily on TSLA and SPCX …. You know what, it is my fault… years ago, it was AMC GME everyday… every damn day! I was called a shill, hated, blocked, thrown in the gutter…

And for what? I wasn’t selling a service, I am not getting paid for helping, I am not getting paid for views, likes… nada. I do not even care if I have followers.. so this is really my fault. I came on Reddit in 2021 because the rise of GME and AMC . So here I am, out of the shadows, I did want to get an opportunity to make tons of money, maybe be a fund manager, something! I ended up making great money, regardless of Reddit, and I got a lot of people to dislike me… sadly… hopefully, I have helped many people achieve financial freedom, or help educate people, share ideas that helped them to be a better trader, investor… However, daily I get massive hate and replies that are very negative…

Given, it is because I am trying to warn people and educate people on why I feel the way I do regarding both SPCX and TSLA … I have a very small position less than 1,000 in $TSLZ TSLA bear ETF. I do not stand to make any huge gains at the moment, I just hate people getting lied to. Hate it! There is nothing I hate more in the stock market then people being scammed and lied to…. It is very hard for me to let this go… though I should…

I want to help people, everyone is getting fooled again…. At least I want them to make an educated decision… in regards to SPCX , many of the companies that own it, funds purchased it Pre IPO, so far below 135, so the risk reward for them is great! I do believe the prospects and growth are amazing! I DO! But the stock price reflects that is the problem.

 

The main issue I have with the comments yesterday, and questions I got from people, just yesterday is this:

You decide to work at a job because of so and so pay?

You decide to rent or buy a house because so and so cost?

You go out and buy a drink, or buy something to eat based on its cost?

It has to have some value that you see, touch.. that you have reason….

You wouldn’t work 60 hours at a tough job for 400 a week…

You wouldn’t buy a slice of pizza for 20 dollars…

You wouldn’t rent a 1 bedroom, 500 square foot apartment for 10,000 a month…

Right? These are general, basic principles that we all have…. Correct?

We agree that the SP500 SPY VOO is a very important indicator on the economy? On the health of the United States or even the world… correct?

Now, the fact is, is that that index trades about 23x earnings right now. [This is higher than the historical 18-19x pre covid 2020] We are seeing 9% sales growth and 25% earnings growth, much fueled by investments. Do we all agree on these things?

So WTF all of a sudden do we throw this out the window for TSLA or SPCX ? I don’t get it…

You can even ask a TSLA SPCX or a Musk cultist these questions pre hand… do not know you are leading up to why they are long TSLA or SPCX…

Just ask them basic principles on life, on SP500, on anything… then end the conversation with TSLA and SPCX … Yes, it shouldn’t bother me so much… and it does… and I like helping people… I do not stand to gain here, I actually stand to get hated on. [This happened 5+ years ago on GME AMC and hopefully those same people look back, in hindsight and see my good intentions] I am shocked, shocked that TSLA has held over 100 this long, Elon has fooled, brainwashed people so long… everytime the stock needs a pump… Robots! Taxis! Chips! Mars!! And the stock pumps… it makes me sick!

I do not see TSLA earning 5 per share for at least the next 2 years… so if there is a miracle…

MIRACLE!! Maybe 2028… So you know, 35 analysts have 2027 estimates at 2.17. [2026 at 1.78] FACTS! So let us say by some miracle, they earn 5 per share in 2028…

YOU ARE PAYING 70x EARNINGS NOW FOR SOMETHING THAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN IN 2028! AND IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL BE SOME MIRACLE!!!!!!!!!

 

Ok, I feel better, but understand something, I am getting beaten and wacked in comments and replies… all I am trying to do is state facts, just like this… I am not spewing lies… some made up stuff that AMC and GME longs used to spew…. So if we work for pay that makes sense, buy foods at prices that make sense, live and pay prices that make sense… please don’t throw all that out the window for Elon!

And yes, if I see TSLA falling like a rock, I may indeed buy puts, but they will be a 1,000 to 2,000 position… It isn’t like I am going to make tons of money…..

 

Excllent earnings since close:

FN          AS        KLAR [Bad guidance though!]

 

Very good earnings since close:

DUOT [Tiny]

 

Good:

FLXS

 

I sold 1,000 shares of PSFE 6.75 to 6.92 [I meant to put 6.95 but I hit that on my phone, I actually still do 80% of my trading on my desktop]

 

I bought back 1,000 PSFE at 6.60

 

Risk Reward I am in no huge rush at the moment for anything

Good morning I have a big meeting with the town around 9AM. I have to call my lawyers after, I have to follow up with some contractors so this will be short. Since Friday, there have been a lot of 13 Filings. This is an SEC document that classifies large ownership in any stock or company. It is actually a good way for the little investor to see/try to see where and what big money is doing, how it is allocated. For many years, it was thought that big money had huge advantages.

[They still do! Mainly they can make calls with insiders, execs and get, if not daily or weekly updates, I would not doubt monthly updates  on a business, big contracts. They also have access to other large investors, they all have access to Bloomberg, quick news, they will have access to level 3 trades… where you can see all orders, buys and sells]

The advantages they had have definitely narrowed though. We have access at our fingertips and can even use AI to summarize reports, quick DD on sales/earnings….. And for this last reason, with AI … I am stumped how the

MASSES CAN STILL BE AS*ES.

At your fingertips in a span of under 5 mins you can find out sales with TSLA over the last 5 years… You can ask income over that time… you can even ask for PEG ratios [Growth over price as it relates]!!!! You no longer have to do extensive research!!! JUST ASK AI!

So how are people so baffled why I say TSLA is worth at most 65 at the moment???!!! [Close to 250-300 billion] Stop using magic or hocus pocus WTF to try and justify a stock price!!! WTF!!!

The market cap is the total value of a company. In 2025 Tesla made just under 3.8 billion. In 2026 they will make far less than that! [They will also go cash flow negative with investments] PLEASE FACT CHECK ME!!!

Elon has stopped talking autonomous, taxi or robots… They were all hype to begin with!! Maybe it comes, maybe it doesn’t, but it sure wasn’t ever something that was coming in 2025 or 2026 as promised!!!

So, if TSLA as a company stands to make near 2 billion dollars for 2026. With earnings and margins declining…. Let us say by some miracle it is 3 billion.

Company is on the decline…

What is 3 billion x 75 [75x multiple or PE, yes for me, PE is the most important indicator for me, not the only, but most important PEG is important! Near 1 is great, TSLA is near 5, awful!]

So 3 x 75 is 225… 3 billion made in profits, let us say the business is worth 225 billion.

That means the stock should be  near 55..

3.95 billion shares outstanding….. 3.95 x 55 = 217 billion…

That is it! My prices make sense… I am giving the benefit of the doubt and 65 is a premium!

What is the difference between Bitcoin and TSLA ? The stock price has 0 to do with the asset or company… Bitcoin price is pie in the sky! No way to equate its value.

Everyone is in SPCX and it makes me sick! Elon track record is filled with holes… The growth is real in Space X. I could see why people want to own it, the prospects are great! However, for me, based on facts we have now, the company is not worth more than a penny over 38, or 500 billion. There are no facts, business model, numbers that justify a stock price of 140.. Just hype… people are buying TSLA SPCX and Bitcoin because they think they can offload it to someone else at a higher price. It is said that after 2020, so many people came into the market and everyone is brainwashed..

Use your AI and ask what was Elons Net worth December 31^(st) 2019… You will see it was near 20 billion… TSLA was near 100 billion… They have not created value beyond a maybe 300 billion valuation….The stock price has 0 to do with the business.

TSLA made 12.6 billion in 2022 and the last great year, 2023 made the company best 14,975 billion… The stock was way too high those times but at least it was growing… it is now a cesspool!

If you have a long term outlook on TSLA or and SPCX then don’t worry about the day to day.

Maybe they have robots and finally go over 100  billion in sales. [Record was 97 in 2023 and 2024] maybe they do 200 billion! I do not know either.. I do know the stock price now already has that built in!

SPCX is on a heavy growth stage so I will give him the benefit and give the company a 500 billion valuation..

Sorry I don’t pick numbers out of the sky!!! And Now you have AI, neither should you!!!!

 

I am in 1000 PSFE at 6.75

 

I saw SNAP drop to 4.70 premarket. I like the risk reward there, I rarely buy after hours, I usually just sell. The growth is slow but I really like it here, low risk. Hope to see that during market hours…

 

Good luck!