u/UltimateTraders

Good morning everyone. I don’t care for likes, followers, views. I have been writing these daily plays since I came on Reddit January of 2021, for free! [I did want someone big to notice me and give me a shot to be a money manager, or my stocks to move] I am doing well in life. I started trading/investing in 1994 with 2,000 dollars. I earned that 2,000 being a tutor in grammar school in the early 90s. I couldn’t even drive yet. I purchased a 2002 Acura TL Type S as my first luxury/new car when I was just over 21. [35,000 at the time] I get a pleasure out of helping people prepare for their future, invest and have a freedom to choose what they want. I started working a W2 in 2012, not that I had to, and retired in 2021 when the stock market was on fire. [My best gains % wise since the 90s]. I did invest total about 20K of my own money by 1997-1998 and it got as high as 450,000 March of 2000 and came crashing down to about 120K, before I decided to sell everything around May/June? I don’t know exactly… and I took a break from trading for maybe 4-5 months to come up with rules, steps, a better plan. I hope to use my experience and help everyone.

By no means am I saying I will make the best gains, because where I am in life, I do not need to take risks. I am here for capital preservation. My only goal in trading since 2010 was to make 100K a year trading. No more, no less… No one forces me to trade, no one forces me to work… I can do whatever I please, go wherever I want… I own an apartment in queens, NYC. [I never go to]. I have a large 2,300 square foot 4 bedroom, 3 bathroom house in Bristol, CT which I have not even slept in since may of 2025. [Purchased March of 2025] It is actually up for sale 399K since April 1^(st) of 2026. I purchased it for 350K and did a lot of repairs. I just don’t think it is safe for a landlord to live to close to their tenants/contractors… not when you own this many units/properties. I may just keep it and put like 10 cameras… I have none at the moment, but the property is for sale. I am telling you this because I have freedom, I do not really have pressure, I am risk averse, my goals aren’t to return 50% or 100% of my money in a year… I tell people a great trader returns 20% or more per year. [10+ years though in my books, I am probably near 16-18% since 1994, because the last 5 years, since 2022 I have traded with far less capital] 2020 and 2021 I was up huge! Huge on an already big account. Had to because I was doing a ton of repairs, renovations and had close to 250K owed in back rent during covid, that I never got back.

I am currently spending about 75K a month on materials and labor for repairs. I just shared some pictures on X.

Just saying trade how you feel comfortable, your risk level. AVAV had great earnings, NBIS amazing growth, PLTR is a great company…. But I don’t like their valuations. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t trade and invest in them. Even SPCX , I was going at it for days even weeks, since IPO on staying away… but if you are investing for 3-5 years, who knows? I sure don’t either! Trade how you feel comfortable. I aim to make 200-600 per trade.

 

Now someone newer saw SSTK down so hard and noticed I said I may buy it. They had about 2,000 and asked me if they should go all in. CERTAINLY I wouldn’t! I wouldn’t even buy SSTK if I only had 2,000. They did buy NOG , as did I. I told them you can get the information online for free. You can even ask AI these days. To treat any stock, any company as your business. If you had a company, and worked there, wouldn’t you want to grow sales 5-10% every year? Make 5-10% more every year. SSTK has a decline in sales and earnings! It is dangerous! It was strictly a dice roll for me, I don’t even have strong confidence they can turn things around, but I bidded 9.25 and was willing if it hit 0. [TSLA has a decline in sales/earnings by the way and 200x PE ratio] Would you want to get paid back on a loan in 200 years? What if you were buying a business, and someone said hey, you will make back your initial investment in 60 years. [60x PE] This is why I generally do not like to pay over 40x.. And if I do, it better be because the company has an insane trajectory…I mean sales and earnings growing 30% year over year… and there is a path that the PE will come down as earnings goes up. So that is what I told him, the SP500 SPY VOO trades at 23x at the moment.. So just know if you are paying over 23x on anything you are overpaying.. SAYS THE WORLD. The world considers the SP500 the benchmark.. And as I said currently, it is reporting sales at 11% and earnings over 16% year over year… So the best way to compare your company to the world benchmark….

The latest quarter did company X grow sales at 11? Earnings at 16? Is it trading at or under 23x? That is a safe way, not the only way, not the rule book, but a good way to measure…

Yesterday PRGS took off 20% on the stock [Still fair value to me is 65 or 10x] The growth in sales was 7% and earnings was 16%. So lower than the SP500 but the PE is about 6 even with the jump in the stock!

So no, no way if I had to pick 1 stock would I buy SSTK… NO WAY..

The other day I did bid 19 on CNXC , low was 19.12, just missed and I made a case for 2x PE on it, a lot of debt though. Can a company survive their debt? A good plan to make money in the future……. SSTK has no such plan…

GME has been doing way better of late, I commend them for that. They finally listened to me, close almost all stores and fire everyone. Dilute shareholders since the stock is high, that is what they did! But their future business plan is trying to change business, DUH! I could have saved billions!

FACT CHECK ME! GME since 2020, has used Bonds/Debt and Equity offerings to raise nearly 11.5 billion, they have near 9 billion now, and they still have inventory…

In other words they are negative 2.5 billion! And the company would be 0 without retail!

Earnings and sales fell off a cliff! They are making their money in US treasuries with the cash that sits! BRILLIANT!

So hopefully this briefing reaches the right people and they stop treating stocks, the stock market as some mysterious magical joy ride… It is a company and you are a temporary owner!

 

I sold 100 shares of CRM from 155 to 164.75

I sold 250 shares of PYPL from 42.50 to 44

I traded 100 shares of NVDA from 194 to 199

I am in 100 CRWV at 86.50 [I am speculating because the growth, they don’t make money yet]

I am in 250 NOG at 17.75

 

I am willing to take on 3 longs…

Good luck and touch some grass!

Good morning taking care of CT. So this will be short and simple. I did have a good chat with AI yesterday GOOGL aka Gemini. We discussed post pandemic valuations. I included some of these screen shots on X. I have 100 shares of PRGS at 50.25 and 100 at 56.50. I have been stuck about a year. I wad doing a deep dive into earnings. I read the report, checked the financials and then also discussed with GOOGL AI. We are in conclusion with what I already know. That the market has thrown tech/software in the dog house, unless you are chips/memory. Stuff like NOW CRM ADBE META MSFT GOOGL AAPL all PE ratios below 25. Many more! These names in 2020/2021 were trading at 30-50x. Many of these are now below 20x! The current SP500 is trading near 23x… Wild times! So many of the top tier name brands are trading below the typical SP500 stock! PRGS PE ratio is 5…

The growth in sales was just 7%. The earnings growth year over year was 16%. [For comparison the current SP500 SPY VOO is growing sales at 11% and earnings about 16% with a 23x] Of course the debt levels on PRGS aren’t great. This is because they grew sales/earnings thru acquiring not organically, which is fine, make use of your money. So is the market giving this a 5x PE because of debt, software/tech or both! As I have kept saying of late, even a private good company sells at 5-10x earnings. It is better to be public because you can access cash from retail, use stock compensation for talent, issue bonds/convert, and you need to be public to do many of these.

So the key with PRGS report is:

They paid down 50 million of their now 1.3 billion in debt Q2 of 2026. They paid 60 million in Q1. They are modeling to pay down an additional 110 million. [220 million total]. Why this matters? They pay about 6% on their debt [not bad] but very costly to EPS and operations. Interest expense was 16 million in Q1 of 2026 and 15 million in Q2. They have just over 40 million shares, so the more they can cut those costs, the immediate boost to earnings!

Furthermore, They did a 35 million buyback in Q2 [Cutting down shares, adding to demand at the auction, cutting down supply available]. They have purchased 55 million back the first 6 months. They are modeling another near 75 million for the rest of the year.

They are able to do this because they are modeling about 283 million of free cash flow for the year. They revised up this number, they are modeling earnings of near 6.21. [The track record the last 4 quarters have been good]

For these reasons I am okay with giving PRGS a 10x multiple or about 65.

 

I did bid  19 on CNXC. The low was 19.12. It was in the 18s pre market, oh well! Wow KLAR ! I was trading this a ton 13-17, less than 30 days ago even.

I made a lot of moves yesterday.

I sold 100 shares of NVDA from 194 to 199

I traded 250 shares of FISV from 47.25 to 48.50

I traded 250 shares of Z from 30 to 31.05

I am in 100 shares of CRM 155 [Wu hoo on fire now! Maybe 165-170 sell?]

I am in 250 shares of PYPL 42.50 [I also have 100 at 54.50 and 59.50, sadly]

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I was in CT for most of the day. Getting quite a bit done, also trying to button up and get a clear to close on my 3 property deal. This is my first investment property deal with TD Bank, I hope the future isn’t anywhere near as tough. I am doing so because they should have a ton of money for when I build. If you walk into a TD or call them, tell them you would like to buy an investment property, out of state, where the property is owned by an LLC, they will tell you they cant help. [Same as JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, almost all major lenders, they have much harder compliance, and regulations] I am doing so because when I want to build and I use a mortgage lender, or hard money we are talking about 8-10% interest rates… and these structures are going to be millions! Big banks don’t like construction loans! So I am doing this deal to get a relationship. I want into my local TD bank many times a month, mainly to get notaries… Sadly I sue a lot of tenants and do a lot of evictions. Keep in mind I have 110 units, it happens. The market is my bread and butter but as I have said, the risk reward here is no good! I rather keep growing my real estate portfolio.

Next week I hope to close a 3 property - 11 unit deal

2 weeks a 2 family deal. [I am only buying this is as its next door to a 4 family and 3 family I already own, I do not go out and look for 2 or 3 family deals]

My areas do not have big buildings for sale, they are quiet and less populated areas.

 

The risk reward on CNCX ? I have traded it recently a couple of times. I am stuck in 2 blocks of PRGS [50.25 and 56.50]. The 2 are software tech companies that did grow by acquiring. It is very hard, in general to tell how the MA was because it usually takes years [CELH was immediate with Alani] So the PE on CNCX is actually under 2 with todays fall, 25% at the moment] I used AI to dig deep. It took me just 15 mins as opposed to 90-120 when I do the research. So the big buy for CNCX was Webhelp in 2023 for 4.8 billion. They also purchased Servicesourse 2022, PK 2021, SAI digital 2025 [just talking the last 5 years]. There interest expense this past quarter was 68 million, the first half of 2026 was 143 million in interest. They owe about 4.6 billion at the moment. They are paying the debt down. They suspended buybacks to do so, they also have a dividend. The first 6 months of 2025 the interest expense was over 160 million. This isn’t really a ton of improvement to me. They should definitely focus on that debt, the interest [Although 6.6% isn’t that bad] it is costing the company 300 million per year… They model 10+ billion in sales for the year, with EPS near 10-11 but the debt! That said, I own PRGS in a similar position. I will buy 1 block of CNXC , I want people to know the thesis going in. I am not saying YOLO by any means, I normally don’t even like companies with bad earnings [PRGS has had good earnings!] So small position, risk reward 18-19, not too bad to me.. Careful though.

 

While I was in CT I did make 3 trades.

I sold 250 shares of BILL from 33.50 to 36.25

I sold 100 shares of CRM from 158.50 to 160.50

I sold 250 shares of LPG from 35.20 to 36.25

 

AVAV had incredible earnings, speculative but wow growth!

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Will be super short as I have to leave about 8:30AM, get to 1 of my towns by 11:30. Closing next week on a 3 property 11 Unit deal with 1 seller next week. The following week I will be closing on a 2 family. [I only want this 2 family as it is next door to a 4 and 3 family] I am also finalizing a contract for the 4 acres of land 1 million. I can build at least 3 different 16 unit buildings, there is approval for 1 at the moment.

 

I did go back and forth with a few people this weekend on X, regarding ADBE . An insider of LLY whom also serves on the board of ADBE purchased 2 million worth at about 200 per share… There was a comment by a furu, a lot of followers that you cant just assume the buy was positive. [What is their motive, their track record] I said that using ADBE as an example is horrible. [This insider also purchased near 400 as well!]

I am in ADBE at 265 and 343.

Current fair value is near 375.

30 analysts estimate full year earnings at near 24.50

24.50 x 15 = 367.50

This is where I get the 375!

It currently trades at 8x… 8x!!!

Private good companies trade at 5-10x….

My real estate returns my money with more head aches at 6-8x… WTF!

So I am not wrong on ADBE ! The facts are 18% earnings growth the latest quarter, with 13% sales growth! Record sales, record earnings!

The market is perception… PLTR is a great company but trades at near 85x.. TSLA is a cesspool and trades at 200x…

So, saying be careful, guy purchased ADBE at 16x before… now at 8x…. are you trying to imply that the person was dumb? I am telling you the market is DUMB DUMB!

But this is a live auction. The facts, the numbers on ADBE are the numbers.. The stock price makes 0 sense, but here we are. I am not buying more shares because I am not sitting on 100+ million or billions. I do not want more exposure. I don’t really buy more than a few blocks of any 1 company.

Wow NOW and CHYM ! I put in bids of 88 and 16.50 just days ago and it almost hit! No FOMO.. but wow. I am up on 250 BILL at 33.50 and 100 NVDA at 194.

 

I traded 75 shares of INTU from 255 to 263

I traded 250 shares of HIMS from 30.50 to 32.50

I am in 250 shares of LPG 35.20

 

Good luck, I have to run!

Good morning everyone. Big news! Burry covers PLTR . It is all over the web yesterday. Not long ago PLTR was soaring over 200. I have PLTD small stake at about 13. I am still down 30%. Oddly, these ETFs do not follow 100% the move of the normal stock… So what I mean, is if PLTR stock falls 10% most of the time, PLTD will go up 6-8%.. Sucks but it is what it is. I just know as it memed, flying everyone was calling me a shill. Even PLTR insiders, CEO too was saying be careful shorting us, we rule, etc! Look it up!

………

I guess he didn’t want to believe because of its size it was indeed a meme… YES IT WAS check the 50% drop! On great earnings and sales…

I have said for a very long time that PLTR was a great company but the valuation makes no sense…. I do not get emotional. No matter what company, be it GME AMC TSLA if they execute they will get a thumbs up from me…

This is my rule…

If your company is doing better than SPY VOO SP500 in execution you earn my respect…

That does not mean, I like your stock, but you are delivering as a company.

As we can see, the stock market and the company are 2 different things. They were aligned more pre pandemic, and that is because there were way less players in this game! FACTS!

So… in general SP500 company grows sales and earnings at 5-10%, year over year….

A very good company grows sales and earnings at 10-20%.. year over year. So if you are in a company that grows sales and earnings, both at 20%.. You get my respect! [If you are losing money, that doesn’t count man! SP500 companies make money!] Pre pandemic we traded on SPY VOO about 18-19x earnings….

So let us go to today, because that is where we are…

Current avg SP500 company is growing sales at 11% year over year and earnings about 16% [We are doing incredible to be honest, and that is why, to me, I am willing to give 21x earnings, which at the moment is expected near 320, last year was 270] we are currently trading near 23x

So using my methods….

Your company should be growing sales at above 11% YOY and earnings 16% YOY and should trade below 23x fair value…..

PLTR is incredible! The growth in sales 80%, the growth in earnings 300%!!! I rarely like to give over 40x…

And if you gave PLTR a 40x you would be at about 55!!! 60x about 75-80…

So it is still sky high!

NVDA is growing insane, MU is growing insane and they have a PE near 20!!!

Given, the growth in MU and NVDA will slow, law of sizes, once you are huge, it is hard to grow!

I am explaining this so people see my logic when I look at stocks… No one is forcing you to buy SPCX or TSLA or Bitcoin. If you choose to do, and do not mind the risk, go ahead… They are hot stocks or assets but there are no earnings, no cash flows behind it!

If we are working with real life situations [not the mythical stock market] and you wanted to invest in a local business or a friend borrowing money… Wouldn’t you want to earn back your initial investment, money you loaned in 5-10 years? This is why private company’s , good ones, sell for 5-10x earnings… I have went over how my properties generally return my initial investment in 6-8 years…. [new building will be about 9 is my projection]

So all of a sudden because it is the stock market you want to give PLTR 100x ? TSLA 200? You want to price a company higher than META AMZN MSFT that has way less sales, loses a ton of money? WTF Why? Because perception in the grifter Elon? People just want to throw millions, billions at someone with a  bad track record. OVER PROMISE , UNDER DELIVER

I don’t get it… maybe, maybe Id take a tiny bit of SPCX at 25.. Otherwise no one is forcing me to buy, why would I? I remember years ago people said that Warren Buffet was dumb, 2021… they said that Cathie Wood was the new Guru… She was delusional, still is, and looking back, maybe now you can see what I saw… but back in 2021 you could not have said anything bad about Cathie, Adam Aaron of AMC, Ryan Cohen of GME or Elon with TSLA.. Everyone would be calling you a shill!

 

My way of investing and trading is long term… Maybe 10-20% a year safely… if you have other plans, fine….. But that is my way of trading… So 10,000 to invest… Id say you can safely make 1,000 to 2,000 in a year…

Now I did and was first before almost anyone in SNDK WDC MU STX but no, I didn’t hold, but I try and make my returns safely. You can easily type in any of these symbols here at Ultimate traders and find the posts from well over a year ago.

 

I did get my 3 longs yesterday. Sadly, I didn’t place any sell orders and HIMS hit 33.48!

I am in 75 INTU at 255

I am in 100 NVDA 194

I am in 250 HIMS 30.50

 

Excellent earnings : CNVS [Tiny company Never seen it]

 

Very good earnings: QMCO [Tiny and losing money]

 

Good earnings: APOG

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I was very busy with 1 of my banks yesterday going over the 4 Acre land and the new building. I was getting the terms so that today I can go under contract! It should close by September/October, because this will be a lot of land, and a 2 year construction loan, interest only on 2 years, but it must be built, kind of like a bridge financing. It is very complicated but my first deal on a new build. I shared the math on this last week, I shared the new build estimate on X, I shared the video on X last Friday and retweeted. So I need to finalize the deal on the land.

I am also closing on a 3 property 11 Unit deal in Bristol within 2 weeks.

I am closing in a 2 family, next door to stuff I own by Mid July.

I also have a 3 family that should close end of July or first week of August.

So busy busy busy.

 

Sorry, I am tired of reading about the grifter that is Elon, tired of TSLA and SPCX . It is sad this day and age you don’t even need full DD. You can ask AI even Grok to do it for you! SPCX owns Grok…. Musk used TSLA shares to buy Twitter, he didn’t know what he was doing, couldn’t make money, that wiped out all that debt when he merged X with XAI… Then XAI had all this debt, then he wiped it out by merging it with SPCX. [Do you not see this pattern? FACTS! ] You would think all this money raised he can fix X. Over the last 30-60 days I can no longer search tweets, and quote my calls on stuff like MU under 80.

In any case, now we have MU earnings. These are facts… FACTS!

Earnings growth was 1200% to 29 billion income over their last fiscal quarter. Sales growth was 345% to 41.5 billion. They generated positive cash flow of 25.4 billion that quarter..

Yes! In those 3 months the company has made almost as much as 20+ years of TSLA as a public company… Ask GROK ask AI! This is not some conspiracy… and I am just tired of 200x on TSLA , 1 million in SPCX .. Do you understand because we put so much emphasis on Musk, TSLA and SPCX when people wake up and these come down hard it will likely take the market with it. It has been announced that SPCX is going on the Nasdaq 100. THAT IS NOT GOOD! 5+ Years ago when TSLA was added to SPY VOO SP500 it was pure hoopla. It is a sad sad thing…. Especially since now you can pull up facts so fast, how does he continue to trick people? Makes me sick!

 

Sentiment may be positive after MU earnings. I may go in a few plays. I saw NVDA at 197 CELH 28 HIMS 31.25 INTU 256 PINS 19.50 PYPL 41.50 [After I sold 43.25], UBER 69.70 [Before Pelosi] Z 30

I did trade 1 long.. my trades:

I sold 100 shares of ROOT from 52 to 53.50

I sold 250 shares of PYPL from 42.75 to 43.25

I traded 500 shares of NOG 18.75 to 19.30

 

I will be busy with CT, but I may trade a little.

Excellent earnings from:

SNX        MU [EPS 1200% Sales 345% 41.5 billion, Guidance 341% 29 billion income, 25.4 operating cash flow]

 

Very good earnings from:

SNX        MU [EPS 1200% Sales 345% 41.5 billion, Guidance 341% 29 billion income, 25.4 operating cash flow]

 

Good earnings: DRI

 

I have to run, Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I basically did my CT stuff, and checked in every few hours. I mainly do research, DD, check charts and quotes on my desktop. I trade on my phone but 80% of trades are on my desktop, and 100% of my DD. I started to use AI for DD.. Because quality DD used to take about 90 mins for me. This is to check 10Q, margins, expenses, why was expenses higher? How was MA, any major contracts/sales… Compare these costs to last quarter, and then year over year. What is big money saying? [buying/selling] What are insiders saying? What is the market saying? For instance, CBRS yesterday had great earnings, brand new IPO, relative to how it had been trading, it is in the dog house, but this thing has very little sales, doesn’t make money and is still 50 billion! [Not that they wont, the growth is incredible] but all of that is priced in! This thing is near 50% of the highs, a new trader would say this is a steal…. A veteran would say the growth is great but maybe does not support this valuation. This is also important this day because retail has put WEN back on the map! So I wanted to do quick AI dd on it, risks reward… and I added it to “Plays” The company is actually near flat, meaning sales year over year is virtually the same last few years… no growth, earnings growth is near 2-5%... The company is not going anywhere short term, the PE is near. The Market cap is about 1.2 billion, they have basically have 0 cash flows, meaning they don’t have anything extra after business, even negative cash flow… in other words it is a dead company… But a PE near 10, a real business, they don’t have to go to the market to get cash. [AMC still selling, GME with offerings and bonds, took in near 12 billion from retail, and has near 9.5 billion cash… mean they have wasted away 2.5 billion, PLEASE FACT CHECK ME!!!! PLEASE! Memesters!]

SPCX is a brand new IPO, they had high demand and sold near 90 billion in shares at IPO [Original target of 75 but firms wanted more shares and did exercise options] They also just raised in bonds over 25 billion.

So 1 week public…

1 week! And they extracted 115 billion from the markets! FACT CHECK ME! These are facts and just 1 week…. A company lost 5-6 billion last year….. had 19 billion in sales… took 115 billion from investors… and you aren’t going to admit that is shill? Fishy?

Friends, TSLA has been around for 20+ years and has raised about 110 billion, via Offerings, bonds, insider sales… So SPCX in just 1 week has shafted more!

Once again, not saying SPCX isn’t promising but stating facts that their bread and butter is selling hopes and dreams = Shill to me

GME business plan same thing, shaft the market, and use the cash for ideas that may have a business model/business plan..

Stop being mad at me for calling out the truth! Wake up!

A trade is a trade though, if you know the risk and choose to still make the trade, I am for that…

I just hate being lied to, brainwashed and not having the information.

You choose your risk profile.

 

So yesterday all I did was sell 2 positions.

I sold 75 shares of INTO from 258 to 263.50

I sold 250 shares of FISV from 47.50 to 48

 

I am not sure what to do today, are we selling off? Are we going to be flat? What is going on? The risk reward is high here though. I don’t want to stop anyone from making money, you know your comfort zone… I am getting ready to buy 4 acres of land, and build 3 – 16 unit buildings on it, that will be my focus… If we dropped to 6,500 [Fair value 6,720 in my eyes] then I would be getting a deal in the market…

 

I am thinking of NVDA below 200 CELH below 28 UBER below 70… but undecided.

I did add WEN to plays, company is dead, but if retail memes this, it isn’t liking it is a shill company [AMC GME]

 

Excellent earnings:

DAKT [Tiny]         CBRS [Newer IPO great earnings but valuation]

 

Very Good earnings:

FDX

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Of course SPCX and TSLA are big and it is still all over X and I am sure everywhere on social media. I wrote how it is important to the market, especially for sentiment. Please, stop overthinking things..

Why is stock X up…

Why is stock X down…

Explain it to me like I am 5

Stock X fell because so and so

Stock X went up because so and so

You are over complicating things. STOP IT! It took me years also to finally accept that the stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment!

As such, no one, including me, can tell you what any stock is going to when. We can not predict sentiment on a daily basis… We can say for sure, that generally, most people are bullish, optimistic, we can also say that inflation is natural, so our companies will sell more in dollars and therefore earn more… meaning we will always see record highs on any index.

If you have 100 shares of a company.

And just 1 share trades in a day… That 1 sell determines the market cap of the entire company, the 99 hodlers fate is in the hands of that 1 trade.

If company A has 100 shares at 1,000 each it is worth 100,000.

If for some reason it trades in a public market at 50 the next day…

The company is worth 50,000!!

That is it! Simple as that!

When a company is popular and everyone talks about it, there is a narrative, speculation, a fake perception of value. [TSLA duh! TSLA is a cess pool of a company that can not make money, if you gave TSLA a 40x multiple the current price would be just over 75!!!

Every stock on the title has below a 40x!!!!!] Why the hell should TSLA have a higher premium than MSFT AMZN AAPL META LOL! Are you insane!??!!!

As I have said, and always say, 99% of the world is brainwashed with Elon Musk. So the current stock price is a reference point. They use a stock price to decide if the company/stock is cheap… They do not use any fundamentals…

It does not matter if the company is 100K, 100 million, 1 billion, 100 billion or a trillion!

The traders today, effect the price of the entire company! We do not even need volume!!!!

Supply and demand control the stock price… Generally, when a company has way more shares available, that means more players can come in and effect the stock price…

When a company makes cash, they can come in to the auction with huge buys, retire shares…

When this happens they are causing a huge swing in demand and cutting down supply big time… They are also increasing earnings per share because there are less shares available…

When insiders see that a company can not make money, or is high, they will likely come to market and use us as exit liquidity to turn equity/paper into cash… Without a stock market is not easy to access cash for insiders.. companies come public as a way to access cash!

TSLA has used the market for over 100 billion. [Insiders, offerings, debt]  Without being public they did not have access to cash. The company itself has made under 40 billion. These are facts, fact check me please.. You can use AI and do DD in 5 mins!

 

So please, please, stop overthinking it. SPCX is going down because there are more sellers than buyers! That is it! Sentiment and daily price action are reflected in the current stock price…. Yes, the company is growing and can be very promising, no doubt! I will say that too… But what price do you put on a company that had 18 billion in sales 2025, lost 5 billion on them?

100 billion valuation? 250 billion?

I do not know either!

So I said maybe because of all the promise, maybe 500 billion, or near 25 per share? I do not know…

As I said, I am old school, I rarely like to pay over 40x for any company! I can buy MSFT META AMZN all near 20x … NOW CRM ADBE PYPL all near 10x… Why the hell would I pay infinity for SPCX and 200x for TSLA . Come on man, I have been around trading since 1994!

 

I do not want to make moves here. The risk reward is high. SPY VOO based on growth in earnings/sales, my fair value currently is about 6,720.

Not that we will fall there, No one knows, including me! But anything over the risk reward in my opinion are bad. [320 earnings x 21 = 6,720] Incredible earnings and sales, but still! We came in at near 270 for 2025.

 

I had to remove PRIM from plays, that guidance was off a cliff bad! Maybe at 50, shocking!

I traded 75 shares of INTU from 260 to 266.50 [Then bought back in 258]

I am in 250 FISV at 47.50

 

Careful and good luck!

Good morning everyone. I just retweeted the video from Friday. I am going over the near 4 acres of land available for 1 million. The 16 unit new build that has received the approval from the town is 3.5 million for a total cost of 4.5 million. With the model that I have used I will make about 150,000 per year. The 30% down for all of this will be 1,350,000. That is about an 8% return, this is without some tax benefits that I will get, very preliminary.

So you know, before the market went nuts in 2020, the SP500 SPY VOO for nearly 100 years before 2020! Was about 9%... The numbers have been skewed since, so we are yielding a near 10.5% return. Not that we can not keep doling that, just that the risk reward is not as good. Majority of the multi families I purchase now I get a return on my money in 6 to 8 years. If the avg return is 7 years, I am getting a 10.5% return on my money, without the tax gains. [Yes, this is not passive and is another job!] If I get it back in 6 years then that is 12.5%.. So when people ask me why I get into real estate there you have it…

I started in 2017 with real estate. I started trading/investing in 1994. The market is my pure love, and I will get larger positions and be willing to trade more if we fell below fair value.

At below fair value, in my eyes, I am getting a discount. Fair value to me is 6,720…

Providing earnings/sales or some other agenda doesn’t arrive with that dip…. I estimate more than 50% of my net worth is now real estate… It is steadily grown… So you are aware my goal over the last 20 years with trading was simply to make 100K from trading, no % wise or nothing fancy. I have invested a ton in real estate. I have wasted over 2 million in cars, probably have nearly 250k or more in jewelry in a safe box.. I have an apartment I purchased in NY in 2016. I have a house that I barely use in Bristol, CT for sale now [Purchased March 2025], 399,000. [I don’t recommend a house for landlords near tenants]

This all came from the market, so that is my passion, 100%, but the risk is much higher to the downside and I rather sit in a lot of cash and slowly put money into real estate until a better opportunity.

 

I only made 1 trade Thursday. I purchased 75 shares of INTU at 260.50 and sold at 268.50.

 

I am willing to get 3 longs but I am going to be careful about it. The title has many of the stocks that I feel are near a fair value. Next Tuesday the 2^(nd) quarter closes. We get Q2 earnings around 7/10-7/15 so that will be a great time to trade, and get active.. No FOMO now. That is also the best time to add or subtract stocks to your portfolio or watch lists.

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. The market is closed tomorrow. I am going back at it with SPCX everywhere. That is fine, it’s the meme it’s the hot stock! I am not doing for views, obviously not for likes, but I am trying to help people, this is on X. I am telling people that this is a trade! A TRADE! I too, have no idea what will happen to SPCX or Bitcoin…. Even the stock market, no one knows! At least with quality companies like ADBE PYPL CRM NOW  MSFT META  … They have good cash flows, they create things of value, have cash, have a reason that you want to own it…

SPCX TSLA investors… sorry! You have no facts, no fundamental reason to be owning it anywhere near these prices.. I SAID WHAT I SAID! I am not here for likes…

TSLA has a 200x PE… or based on todays earnings it will take you 200 years to make your money back. They have a decline in earnings and sales… And yes, I agree we buy things based on the future… This is why I say, I am willing, in some cases to give any stock, ANY! Roughly a 40x… if you give TSLA a 40x you will get 80!!! So the 75 fair value is more than fair for a company in a huge rough spot….

SPCX lol!!! 18 billion in sales, 5 billion in losses last year….. THIS IS NOT MADE UP! The company has told us. If you can not do DD ask GROK GEMINI GOOGLE CHATGPT CLAUDE . These are not made up!

YES, TESLA IS SHILL! By all means fact check me please! PLEASE DO YOURSELF A FAVOR and stop saying I AM SHILL!

Ask, since inception, how much has TESLA as an entire company made?

With the losses, the net number is between 35-40 billion depending on sources…

Then ask your AI….. Including IPO, Offerings, insider sales, BONDS issued… [These are sources coming public, to the market, raised dollars between the company and insiders… how much has TSLA insiders/company made by being a publicly traded company!]

You are going to get a number over 100 billion.

FACTS! THIS IS NOT A CONSPIRACY TO GET VIEWS!

In fact you will see that Elon has sold off roughly 50 billion in shares.. he has sold more in TSLA stock then the entire company has made as a COMPANY! Since existence.

THAT IS MY DEFINITION OF A SHILL COMPANY!

This is my own definition, no one has taught me, been trading since 1994!

Shill company = A company that exists to sell shares, their business model does not make more money, than the company can make/insiders can make selling off shares..

Now, this can happen to a lot of new companies, they need to grow, sell off shares…

TSLA is over 20 years old! Has been public 15 years!!!!

SPCX … Imagine we met on the street… Told you, hey! Hey there!!!

Let me borrow 10,000, I would give you some equity [Shares] in my company…

You say, hey that is great! When do you think I will get my money back or will you pay me in future earnings…

I say… What money? I lost 50,000 in this business last year….

You say, wow… how much did you sell…

I say, I sold 200,000 in goods/services….

You immediately say, WTF .. How did you lose 50,000 on 200,000 in sales.. and what the hell are you going to do with my 10,000..

I tell you, your 10,000 is going into my pocket, while, I think of ways to make money..

Don’t worry, we are going to make tons of money…

Not 2027, or 2028… Maybe 2030…. Please give me 10,000.

You then ask… if I give you 10,000 and you do not know what you are doing, how am I going to get my money back, or make money on this deal..

I immediately say…

YOU ARE GOING TO DO GREAT! I AM GOING TO COME UP WITH A GREAT STORY AND YOUR SHARES FOR 10,000  CAN BE SOLD FOR 20,000! I AM GOING TO PAINT DREAMS AND HOOK EVERYONE IN!

Get it? That is SPCX. FACTS!!!!

Yes, they can make money 1 day… 100%, I agree.. but should it be worth near 3 trillion? LOL !!!!!! Maybe, maybe 500 billion? As TSLA stands now, based on cash flows, and my outlook into a year, the company is worth near 300 billion!!! SORRY I did not start trading yesterday! I have seen this since the 90s!! I do not know how Elon has the world so fooled since 2020. It is wild! He did not create PYPL or TSLA ! ASK AI! Jesus!

 

Now I say private companies are worth 5-10x earnings as long as they are good and proven. So publicly traded, quality companies, especially tech [before Ai] should trade at 20-25x earnings because the margins and growth….

ADBE 8X

PYPL 7x

MSFT 19x

CRM 10X

This is insane!! You can just have an account, or open an account and buy in to great companies .[You can also just do a trade and buy a 50x,100x,200x or a SPCX that wont make money for years!]

Now I shared on X pictures of the cost of a 16 unit building in Bristol CT. I have a lot of land but the problem is the parking! LACK OF IT! That is ok, because from the same seller, what I did was buy a Lot, a 4 family and a single family house all together. I have decided to build a 12 unit on this lot… We will file, make meetings and do the whole 9 yards. It will take 6-9 months for approval. If lucky, I will get approved and start building next spring, 2027….

Or [This is my very first brand new building]

I can buy a lot of land already approved in Bristol, it is roughly 3 acres. It has been approved for at least 1 of these 16 units.. As that seller wanted to build one… He got permits, approvals, stamps, even plans on the building/structure…

He wants 1 million for this land.. My architect feels we can get 2 more of these on the same plot of land but hasn’t submitted everything to the town yet..

I am going tomorrow to see it..

Here are the real numbers..

[New construction, new build, normally is 30-35% down and rate is like 8% interest with 1% point in fees, especially if you have never built] This is also a bank, not a hard money lender. A hard money lender may charge 2-3% points and 10-12% construction for someone brand new.

 

1 Million for the land.

30% of the entire cost. [Even with all approvals and we fly, this will be 12-14 months to build]

30% of 4.5 million

1,350,000 out of pocket for this deal

I did numbers with the debt service [Mortgage, water, all expenses, taxes, insurance, maintenance, remember a new build will not need much]

I will make roughly 12,000 a month…

Or 144,000 a year..

It will take me 9 years to make my money back on this new building, if nothing goes wrong…

Now people that do this, do it generally, for generational wealth, or they get partners, they have other means to make cash… In fact a bank will not even get involved if you do not already have millions just sitting, in case of worst case scenario! Hard money maybe….

So 9x.. This a real life situation…

So it is far easier to buy an ADBE PYPL CRM which all have pretty much the same or lower PE than my project! [I will make a video tomorrow as I see the land]

So WTF would I buy SPCX ??? I can or I cant make money on SPCX it is up to the next trader!

I will definitely make money on my building, the question is 9-12 years… [On my old stuff, but headaches, I make back my money in 6-8 years, I started in 2017]

You can always buy SPY VOO and make back your money in about 6-8 years too! That is from a history of 100+ years…. Or you can buy SPCX! LOL! Maybe, for a maybe… but if you don’t like ADBE PYPL CRM or don’t want to pay near 20x for AMZN META MSFT because they are risky you are safer in an index!

If you do not mind gambling, or rolling the dice, SURE SPCX TSLA or Bitcoin!

 

Good luck!

 

Great earnings from SWBI but eh guns, not for me, I have BYRN safe weapons, but getting killed

 

Good earnings and added to PLAYS SB

 

I sold 250 shares of PYPL from 43.45 to 44.50 [Then bought back the same shares 42.75, I am stuck in 100 share blocks at 54.50 and 59.50]

I sold 250 shares of HIMS 32.25 to 32.75 [Stuck since January 9^(th)! Wasn’t the plan but this crashed near 15!

I sold 250 shares of CELH 29.50 to 31.50 [I also have a block 41.50 but I have made a lot of trades out of the lower block]

I am in 100 shares of CRM 158.50

I am in 100 shares of NFLX 77.50

I am in 500 shares of ACI 14.60

I am in 100 shares of ROOT 52 [Also stuck in a block at 94]

Good morning everyone. I have been going back and forth on X last several days regarding SPCX . It is very important to know who your mentor, guru etc is.. What are they after. Are they getting paid for this, is it a pump and dump what is their goal. Know, that I do not charge anyone. I do not have any subscriptions. I have posted daily ideas/plays since January of 2021 for free! I do not care to charge. I would post in other areas on Reddit, but I am banned. I do not mind helping someone learn how to fish. So they can feed themselves and their families. I want to do DD on a stock that I have, and my stock flies. Like ADBE [265 and 343] LULU 124 PRGS 50.25 and 56.50. KMX hit 55 this morning, I was trading it at 35! I did DD why it was worth 50 over a year ago! It would be great if I can do this DD, with fundamentals and logic, back a stock and a ton of people bring an ADBE to 300 within 30 days… YES THAT IS WHAT I WANT! YOU GOT ME!

The difference is my stuff and my thesis, ideas makes sense! MY MATH MATHS!

I can tell you why ADBE should be 360+

18% earnings growth, 13% sales growth

I give it a 15x multiple, 15 PE

Earnings are expected near 25…

25 x 15 = 375

These are facts, these have happened and this was just reported. This is what fair value is to me on ADBE and there is a systemic system I use.

PYPL had a 7% sales growth and 3% earnings growth.

I think it should have an 11-13x PE. Earnings are expected near 5.50

5.50 x 11 = 60.50 [I am in 43.45, 54.50 and 59.50]

My numbers make sense, you can see why I come up with them. Both companies have good financials, have positive cash flows, can raise shareholder value in a number of ways. Have they have sales earnings, very low multiples. [As I said even a private quality company sells for 5-10x… These are 2 brand new software companies that sell below 10x! PYPL like 7x WTF!]

 

SPCX lol! They had sales of 18 billion and lost 6 billion on those sales.. But it is valued at more than MSFT META AMZN . LOL! At what point do we understand that the stock market is a live auction and stock prices have very little to do with the actual company. You can look at TSLA and  understand the market gives a clown premium on anything MUSK. We are in danger, because if he faulters on SPCX [he has already on TSLA as it has less earnings and sales] then what, the entire market falls on a MEME? This isn’t AMC GME of 2021, that were small companies that didn’t mean as much to the overall market, this is  now 1 of the largest companies in the world… WITH NO EXECUTION! This is not a niche market like Bitcoin or Crypto where a very small % of people have exposure. [By the way to me, they are all worth 0! You do not need to own any of them!] SPCX TSLA both play a big part in the US stock market… TSLA has failed to deliver taxis, robots, autonomy. They are late on every car, the sales and earnings are falling and fast… The market has not woken up…

Fair value is 75 on TSLA .. What happens if it falls to 100? What does that mean for the rest of the market?

Remember, I am not here for BS, likes or followers, 75 TSLA fair value is actually a premium for the pathetic execution of the company, I am giving him the benefit of the doubt. If you gave this car company a 10x like ADBE [Which is growing sales and earnings] it would be 20!!!!! 

What will that do to investor sentiment?

If NVDA whiffed as bad on earnings as TSLA would that crush the market? Luckily they are smoking sales and earnings.

Unlike the grifter Musk!

 

I will do up to 2-3 longs depending on the situation. The stuff on the title.

 

I sold 250 shares of FISV from 47.90 to 49.90.

 

I was in court. I am up on CELH PYPL and my gamble SLQT.

 

Good luck!

 

Very good earnings [85 score] from:

KMX   JBL

 

Good earnings from LZB

Good morning everyone. Leaving for CT in 10 mins so this will be super short. I am kind of glad people are seeing SPCX a shill company [As of now] has a higher market cap than META AMZN MSFT . It may take this to finally understand the stock market is an auction. I am getting sick and tired of people asking on the web, and astonished.. I am reading the same dumb message....

Explain this to me like I am 5, why is SPCX worth more than WMT BRK.A HD the title companies... People I have said this for years. Daily sentiment. Supply and demand at the auction. These people trading and bidding are not looking at market caps... A company that makes more of its money selling shares than as an actual business is shill to me! That means the bread and butter of your business plan is siphoning cash from retail. Sadly... Finally people see TSLA has no fundamentals? Do they realize the jump in 2020 was just trades? The company does not make cash! The world has accepted to pay a price for a stock. Insiders and the company use the last price as an exit!!! WAKE UP!

I sold 75 shares of INTU from 269 to 284 [WU HOO!]

I sold 500 shares of PATH from 10.25 to 11

I sold 100 shares of UBER from 70 to 72

I am in 250 BILL at 33.50

I am in 250 FISV at 47.90

I am headed to court for evictions. Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I have to head to court tomorrow in CT. Friday coming I am taking a look at the 4 acres of land in Bristol CT that has already been approved for 50 units where someone wants to sell. Last Thursday I met with my architect and the bad news was, money wise, efficiency the best thing I should do with my 3 property deal from November 2025 is to build a 12 unit multi family. [This was 1 lot of land, a 4 family and a single family house, I was thinking of knocking down the 4, the single family which would give me about .5 or so acres…. I wanted to build a 60-80 unit, 6 level large building, but I could not get the town to sell me a strip of land I needed for parking…. I would have had to use 2 of these 6 levels for parking, and even do underground parking! Very high cost, and these are affordable units! The math was not mathing!] I am better off building a 3 story that will not require me install elevators, so I will leave it at 12 units and 3 stories.. The cost will be between 2.5 and 3 million… The original idea was near 80 units and 17.5 million…

The town is requiring me to do some parking situation for some of the units of a large building, they want the investment…. But haven’t decided yet if they want to sell me a piece of land I would have needed for parking! OH WELL! So I will be out for 2 of these 5 days and as such, I will not add too many new positions this week. If you have been following me, you know the risk reward is high and I have already been scaling back on my trades…

Instead of buying 200 INTU , I am in 75 INTU… Instead of 5,000 PATH I am in 500. Same position, types of trades from 2021 but much smaller scale… also, maybe about 50% of my wealth is now into my real estate ventures.. This has slowly been growing, I have been taking out funds from investing/trading and buying real estate….. I am more than happy to go into trading/investing as it is my passion, but the risk reward is bad here….

If the market was 6,000… With no new wars, crazy news……. Earnings and sales kept at this pace, the market would be a deal and I would add a ton of longs!

April of 2025, the market crashed thru fair value at 4,800… Fair value at that time was near 5,200… I was more than willing to add 40-50 new longs. [I had maybe 30 bags]. However, we were at 4,800 for maybe 1-2 days… I was trading AMD under 90! NVDA 90 and MU 80 !! It was insane, do your search here, at Ultimatetraders! Type in MU AMD NVDA and check time, I was super excited to see us below fair value…. Since that is not the case, I am just taking my money and investing it in real estate.

 

There is no FOMO here. I am risk averse and you have to trade with your comfort level. Daily sentiment is very positive as another Iran deal? Oil is dropping and the market is on fire… Post 2020, the market has a very low attention span. If you are a gambler, post 2020, has been the greatest time to make a ton of money from the market… Majority of people, when they have made money slowly, wealth, they get to a level where they are happy making 10-20% with as little risk as possible. I have made probably between 15-20% compounded since starting with 2,000 in 1994… I have wasted millions on cars. Millions! It is a vice. I have 30 properties, 110 units, all the money from the market! So do you! I am still trading just in the smallest scale I can recall in many years… 2020/2021 I was going nuts with large trades. Some trades, I remember putting 5-10% of my account in…. I tell people that to have more than 5% in 1 stock is kind of dangerous… I had as much as 25%, or 20% in 2021…. The year 2000 I had 25% in BKNG then PLCN and my account crashed near 75%. Since then I really try not to have more than 10% in any position… now it is barely even 5% if even.

 

So the title has many stocks I am looking at. I am willing to add maybe 5-7 new longs this week without a sell. I have about 35 bags at the moment.

 

I am in 75 shares of INTU at 269 [I will try and sell 280+]

I am in 500 shares of PATH at 10.25

 

Good earnings:

AIOT

Good morning everyone. I had a very busy day yesterday. I came back from CT around 10PM. Some bad news….. because the numbers do not make sense [like SPCX and ADBE TSLA] I am going to downsize my new building to just 12 units… I can build about 50 units [not 60-80] because 2 of 6 floors would have to be for parking! Because the town will not sell me a piece of land needed for parking, and we couldn’t come up with any ideas… This building, would cost me around 20 million maybe slightly more for underground parking.

The avg rent in this new building may be around 1,600 because the area.

So let us do the math:

50 x 1,600 = 80,000 a month from rents

Let us say the mortgage is at 15 million [25% down]

Let us say the rate is fixed 30 years [Usually they aren’t, new build and commercial, but for the sake of this argument]

Let us say the rate for this new build and large structure is 7%

This mortgage is 99,795!

This does not include taxes!!!! 0 Expenses, do not build!!

The math is not mathing!

No need to go futher.

If I was able to do 80 units and 1,600 you come out with 128,000 rents.

Then, if I do not have to go crazy with the parking situation, total cost was hopefully 17.5 million.

Putting the mortgage at just near 87,000.

This does not include insurance, taxes or expenses, but with near 40k a month room, maybe this is feasible for me long term, as rents rise. [I may also be able to get a 5-7 year tax abatement]

We discussed a 20 to 40 unit building….. Same issues…PARKING!

We finally came to between 12 and 20 units… The problem with 20 units, on the lot I own, I would have to put a 4^(th) floor. A 4^(th) floor requires elevators, on the renders we used [he did use ADBE by the way! No he doesn’t know I own it or invest] This elevator would cost me roughly 250,000… It will be way more cost effective and the numbers make sense at 12 units, 3 floors… SADLY! I am able to build up to 75 feet [got special ok from the town] but the parking makes the numbers unfeasible!

MATH ISNT MATHING!

[Good news there is someone selling a plot of land for 1 million dollars, that is already approved for about 50 units, it doesn’t have a house or building but alot of trees, my current property where I am building is 1 empty lot, a 4 family house and a single family. It is .4 acres…  The 1 million is almost 4 acres in Bristol CT]

So I will explore that today and next week… I did let the architect know we will start on the 12 unit and let the town know that will be our intentions.

 

This is what is going on with my life and it is very simple… We have a brand name publicly traded company. It has been around for nearly 40 years… It will trade at near 80 billion at open… ADBE is set to make nearly 10 billion this year… That means it will trade at just 8x earnings.. Facts are facts! The most recent earnings showed 13% sales growth, 20% earnings growth. They also revised up sales and earnings. They will have sales near 26.5 billion and earn about 24.40 per share…. [yes, 8x earnings so stupid!]

So stupid the company is trying to raise value with serious buybacks. You can ask AI. I did! I posted a picture on X. ADBE purchased 8.5 million shares last quarter. The price avg was 248.88. They have a new 25 billion buyback! [They have 10+ billion in free cash flow to make this possible, they can keep buying 2 billion each quarter and retire 25-30% of the entire company!!! Which is a serious boost to EPS. They used 2.12 billion last quarter, FACTS!

 

SPCX and TSLA are opinions. You will recall how I say a very good private company sells at 5-10x earnings. [Now we see cash machine ADBE at 8x] You will recall why I do real estate I usually get about 7x [Or 10% a year, good to diversify] Well please tell me how the math, MATHS with TSLA ? You have decline in sales and earnings and it trades at 200x earnings… 200 years!!!! WTF!! The car business is done, it peaked.. FACTS!!! Where are the robots? Where are the taxis? What autonomous? Do we see how he was filled with lies?

SPCX had 18 billion in sales and on those sales they lost 5 billion. FACTS once again! So ADBE at 80 billion is actually a much better cash machine if you were an owner than 2 trillion SPCX or TSLA … even both! TSLA will not make 10 billion this year, they will be lucky to make 3 billion! FACTS once again…

 

I may trade but I am also watching.

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I didn’t make a trade yesterday. Was tempted again with NVDA falling under 200, also so PRIM fall to 93, AMSC 36. There were at least 20 good deals on my main watch list. My main watch list is called Plays. It consists of 300 tickers. I have accumulated 28 watch lists, about 1,200 tickers across all the watch list. You fine to have something in multiple watch list. Whatever works easier for you. For example.

I have JPM in multiple lists. It is in my Bank Watch list, my Blue Chip Watch list and my SPstrong watch list [my maybe 150-200 companies that I most like out of the 500] . You create watch lists that work for you. 3 more weeks, we end Q2, June 30^(th). The best time to add or subtract stocks, or to put new stocks into watch lists is earnings season. Earnings season will kick off 2^(nd) week of July. The main objective  with these watch list is to easily locate a sector if they are cold/hot. Example….

MU signed a big deal with DELL or NVDA . Check on WDC STX SNDK or vice versa.

Oil prices are dropping hard let us check the airlines AAL DAL.

Gold is flying let us check gold miners SBSW KGC or even ETFs. [I have ETF watch list too!]

Someone asked me last week, what is the best way to make sure he gets higher returns on his cash than a CD or high yield checking/savings account. [They know 0 about bonds and don’t want to buy individual stocks, they have indexes]

I told them I have a watchlist called, Dividends. It is a list of nearly 200 names with over a 4% yield from dividends… I told them there are banks with a very low Beta [Risk] that pay steady dividends which are 98% guaranteed. You can also get appreciation! Yes, the bank stock can go down, but if you are in no hurry, CDs are 3- 6-9 month you should be fine!

In any case, I saw many good deals at least 40 of them, even below what I deem to be fair values… but sadly, like I have said, if SPY VOO SP500 falls to fair value 6,720… it will take down 90% of stocks, and you will get better deals than what I am seeing!

 

I was up on LULU [I have 100 shares at 124, it reached near 124.50… I had a sell at 125] This, after earnings did fall near 109. I wrote DD last week on why it should be maybe 140. For now, would have to check earnings. I am meeting with my architect in Bristol, CT around 12:30 so I am headed out shortly. I have the land to build something… we had discussed in March about the building in the plot of land being able to do 60-80 units….The problem now is that there is no parking for them, unless I want to spend money and build underground parking. The rents on these units, 1 bedroom 1,400 and 2 bedrooms 1,700 will not support the added cost to build underground parking. So I must see if it make sense to just do a small building 20 units, not knock down a 4 family, a single family house for 1 big plot of land.

[At the moment, it is 3 adjacent properties, a lot of land with trees and an unsafe place where kids play, a 4 family building, a single family house, my thought process was to bull doze everything and make it 1 parcel of land… the town is allowing me to go up to 75 feet high]

 

I am doing heavy renovations.. Saturday I took a video of a large tree, was describing how that trees roots were breaking into sewer pipes… Yesterday I shared how the tree was knocked down, how we excavated the front yard, dug out pipes and replaced the pipe. We put the ground back and will plant grass.

 

I must go get ready… No FOMO here. The stock market is not going anywhere… I may not want to make moves until late afternoon tomorrow after SPCX [18 billion in sales and 5 billion loss for 2025! FACTS] Or even Monday, when the dust settles. No one knows the bottom, no one knows the top! And It is ok if I miss a trade. I am mainly in cash anyway, last Friday was a bad sign. Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I didn’t make any moves yesterday. Even when NVDA fell under 200, which is crazy. Consider there earnings/sales and growth. It is trading near 25x earnings and like 15x next years [If you believe it will happen] The earnings and sales overall have been excellent. So I do not mind, I guess, giving the market 21x earnings… For 2025 earnings came in at near 270… we are tracking for 320 on the year or 19% growth [50/270]. Amazing! Best since 2020, when we opened the economy back up… That said, please keep in mind prior to 2020, we traded at 18-19x earnings…..

In general, I do not like to give any company more than a 40x multiple, no matter what! I am old school… When we are flying and nothing to be scared about [late 2020 and all 2021] maybe I give 60x… The reason for this is, a private quality company sells for 5-10x earnings. I make back my money in real estate in 6-8 years…. Why the heck do I want to pay more than 21x for a stock! At least at below 6,720, the market is a discount to what I believe is fair value… In the long term you can not lose with index funds, but why would you pay 200x for TSLA or 1,000 for SPCX … just because you perceive that there will be earnings 2-3-5 years from now? So you are willing to pay that premium now?

5 years ago, ask any AI TSLA was supposed to make at least 10 years per share…

So do not always believe analysts. They are on track to make 2.06 cents from 34 analysts! They made much more 2021, 2022 and 2023! Fact check me! This company is on the decline. PLTR growth is great, amazing company, unlock TSLA they are executing, but 100x PE? At 60x it is 85 bucks…. At 40x it is 58 bucks!!!

ADBE trades at 10x… PYPL 6x… So it is your comfort level…

When a company does make cash, has possible free cash flow, they can buyback shares, dividends, special dividends, MA, pay down, debt, even invest in other companies…

So just be careful out there.

 

There are a lot of good deals but if the market falls to fair value, 90% of stocks will get cheaper! The stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment. That fair value may also fall if people stop spending money, sales go down, earnings go down…

Most of that earnings growth is coming from big tech too! Like 20 of the 500 companies on the SP500 are carrying the index earnings! So the numbers are skewed!

 

CPI inflation at 4.2 year over year, staggering! 2.9 month over month… It definitely is gas/oil, but what can we do here? Everyone needs gas! Rates are rising… we cant lower fed funds, the economy is still hot. Unemployment is at 4.3% [5% is where I start to worry] but CPI over 3.5 is bad, bad! [Fed wants near 2! Prior to 2020 we did have 2!!!!] So, of CPI goes up, rates go up, companies will lay off, unemployment will go up, sales and earnings will fall….

Study the economy….

So at these levels, I do not like the risk reward.

 

Tomorrow I need to head to CT to meet my architect on some buildings. Friday is SPCX … I may even wait to see what happens Friday.

 

Amazing earnings 95+ score : CASY

 

Good earnings 75 score : CBRL LAKE

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. Wow! I am surprised, but not completely shocked. The market/traders have a short attention span. We had a daily crash in QQQ and the Nasdaq [3%+ drop or more] close to that in SPY VOO SP500. For me, those are signs to pause, take some profits, have cash in case another 5-15% drop… and then yesterday, and this morning so far, we are rallying….

The only guess I have, and you can look this up in 5 mins with AI, Grok, Gemini or your choice.. Since 2020, when commission free trading, everyone at home, and with the fact that trading has better win rate than gambling…. There have been well over 50 million new trading accounts! 50 million! There are an estimated 400 million people in the US!! I am not saying that is the net number now, but I am saying there were 50 million new accounts open… how many are closed, how many are blown up? I have no idea, and AI couldn’t tell me either. I can say there is close to 50% more traders now than 2019… I can tell you on a hot date retail/traders at home can count for 40-50% of daily volume!!!

2020-2022 that number was 20-30%!

I came to trading in the end of 1994. Retail was 5-10% of daily trading volume… What that means is that people at home have more of an effect on stocks than ever! EVER!

If you have any doubts take a look at MSGS $MSGS or Madison Square garden, the KNICKS in the finals. The stock is up 110% in a year!!! So it is hot! The stock market is a popularity contest.

SpaceX , ChatGPT and Anthropic are going to take advantage of the hot market and IPO ASAP. When the masses are asses you take advantage! They will use the market as exit liquidity….

I have been trading for 30+ years, you can not fool me.

Just ask your choice of AI … Hey, since TSLA was in existence 20+ years ago… what is the total overall net income of the company….

Since day 1… the company total profits are near 30 billion! The entire company!!!

Ask how much has the company raised via IPO, offerings, bonds, insider sales…

TSLA TESLA has raised well over 100 billion. IN FACT ELON has sold NET nearly 50 billion in TSLA stock himself… This is not speculation and now with AI you can fact check me… PLEASE DO!!!

That to me, means it is a shill company… they make more money off the backs of investors/traders at home, than as a company selling a product or service….

Choose AAPL MSFT META AMZN NFLX HD or any real company of your choice.. YOUR CHOICE!!! You will see that companies make 10x  even 20x more money as a business…

Than as a stock selling company… Yes! TSLA is not a car, tech, software company, it exists to sell stock! Because that is what they are way better at… That is there bread and butter and it is a clear fact!

The importance of me saying that and educating you all because I am old school! NO FOMO here… I used yesterday to unload a lot of positions, most for a profit… And new traders are acting like Friday and Bitcoin was and is nothing! This doesn’t mean that the market falls.. The stock market is an auction decided by daily sentiment, plain and simple. If people wake up this morning bullish and everyone is happy, the market goes up!

Fair value is a term I come up with based on cash a company can make… [This is why TSLA fair value is 75, because it is based on the company’s ability to make cash, not on perception of value, which clearly does not exist, you can all ask AI, sales/earnings, TSLA is yuck would make you throw up!] I am also not saying SpaceX cant be a great company 1 day, maybe it can! I AM SAYING MAYBE IT CAN! But there is no reason the company should go public at 2 trillion, with nothing proven it should be worth as much as META AMZN ? Are you crazy? I AM NOT! But we will see Friday that the market is!!!

 

Thursday, I am going to CT to meet my architect on the new building, maybe if the market doesn’t fall hard by Thursday, I will trade normal Friday? I may even wait for SPCX this Friday and see what I will do…. My fair value on the market for now is 6,720…

Once again, that does not mean I think we are headed there, I have no idea… That is the figure I feel we should trade at based on the sales/earnings of the 500 best companies in the world…

POKEMON cards are selling for 100k, 500K, 1 million even… it doesn’t mean you or I need to buy them…. I do not believe in Bitcoin at all! AT ALL, so even if it fell to 20,000 and I was to buy 1, it would only be, to sell it to someone else! Not because I believe it has value!

So we choose to trade if we want, no one is forcing you, and certainly not forcing me!

 

Yesterdays trades:

I sold 250 shares of LPG 41.75 to 43

I sold 100 shares of ROOT 53 to 55.50

I sold 100 shares of FRPT from 49.75 to 52.25

I sold 75 shares of INTU 298.50 to 302.50

I sold 200 shares of ANF 78 to 79.50

I sold 250 [Half my order] TITN 24.50 to 25 [I have had this position for 2+ years, it had fell to 12!]

I sold 250 shares of GLXY at 31.50 from 37 [Small loss, saw this at 20]

I am in 100 UBER at 70

 

Great earnings:

SAIL [Valuation]        MAMA [DD tiny company]

 

Very good earnings:   NATH

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. We have not seen a sell off like this since last April with the tariffs. I have said this many times in the past and its very important to go over it again, especially if we will see a correction. [10% drop] There are indeed signs, it doesn’t mean that it will definitely happen, but for me, these are the warning signs. Remember, as I wrote last week, we do have incredible earnings and sales so far… Earnings has moved up from around 300 to now 320. Sales are about 10-11% growth… For this, maybe we do 21x earnings.

If so:

320x21 = 6,720

So that is my fair value, at most, currently. It doesn’t mean we will go higher, lower… no one knows.. the stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment. [sentiment can be a little fear with Bitcoin drop, War/gas fears, new IPOs which will pull cash from elsewhere]

That said, I do not know when, and no one does, when we will sell off or go higher.

All I can do is use past history, experience, to pause, buy in smaller scale, sell for small losses…. In this case it may be a pause for me….

Many people will ask me to try and predict a drop, how much… etc… that is impossible…..

But a big warning sign, or some things I look to for downside conviction.

This goes for any index, but the stock market is considered the SP500 SPY VOO or the basket of 500 companies.

 

3% drop in a day [Daily crash]

4% drop where you get this in 2 days

4% drop with market red 8 of the last 10 days

 

These are signs for me to pause… I may pause 1-2 days to see if we continue to get a sell off. If we do, I will start buying puts on high fliers.. small positions, most likely 1-2 day 1, most likely just 1,000 per bet… but that is if we see the above and a day or 2 of pausing with us still red….

Sorry there are no guarantees, all we can do is use experience and trade with that knowledge. We are in the market that we are…the 6,720 fair value is fluid… meaning it changes constantly…

What if oil stays high? People are afraid to spend?

Then sales down… then earnings down [Not for every company but generally speaking]

It is a basket of 500 companies, at least 460, or 90% will be affected greatly if we have high inflation, tons of lay offs.. the economy is always moving.

So hope this post helps explain things, from a trader, who started at 14 in 1994!

 

I sold 250 CMG from 28.25 to 29.50

I sold 75 INTU from 302.50 to 306.50 [Then back in 298.50]

I am in 100 WIX 52 [Couldn’t predict the revise down!]

 

Very good earnings this am:  MPAA [Tiny company]     GHM

I will likely pause for the whole day just to wait and see what happens, I would sell of course but some steals last week was:

SOFI 15.50

NVDA 204.50

Just examples!

Good morning everyone. Everyone for the past week is talking about MSTR Bitcoin and Saylor the founder and old Ceo of MSTR. There is back and forth mumbo jumbo on all Crypto including Bitcoin. The block chain’s purpose is to have a network where information, transactions can be made very quickly and securely. Much faster than the old technology of banks/finance hubs. It was said and thought that the more mining you did the more secure and better the blockchain would get… Now, there is no truth nor lie about this. You can ask Google Ais. That was the only purpose of Bitcoin. It holds no intrinsic value. No one has to own it, it doesn’t have any function or use.. It is merely traded because the next person thinks it is a store of value. It is supposed to be limited to 21 million but keeps finding ways to be available, have supply, halves. We have been fooled by big money to believe this is acceptable etc. Saylor is a big key to this. [I can also write down why TSLA based on cash flows, future cash flows included should be no more than 50 today, but peoples perception, and the auction has it trading 415+] I say this because there is now way to quantify fair value for Bitcoin, it doesn’t create or produce anything…

People may make the argument that US dollar is fiat and worthless because we just keep printing it. The truth is, because we keep printing or send 0, and 1s because we do wires and the numbers get larger, we have inflation….

However, it is not worthless because it is the worlds currency… It has intrinsic value because it is accepted and traded everywhere for goods.. At all hours, everyday! 100% of people will fight, work, trade ideas for US cash… You can not even say 1% of the world will do the same for Bitcoin…

Would you work your day job and accept Bitcoin, no more us dollar?

When you buy a car, does your dealership want it?

How about Pizza, Chinese food at your local store?

How about that house you want, does that seller what your internet money or cash?

If you told yourself no to Bitcoin but continue to do this with US cash…

Your thesis that the US dollar isn’t intrinsic or will be overtaken by Bitcoin is defeated!

 

Now the point of this, was I sold LULU 128.50 and I am back in 124…. About 5 people on X are going at me… But the difference between LULU and companies like a TSLA SPCX IREN NBIS, is it is making money and makes sense now… TODAY! [Yes, companies are valued at future cash flows] Future cash flows should only count for the next 4 quarters…. Not 5 years from now GS saying what SPCX can do! LOL TSLA was supposed to make 20 dollars per share by now, according to GS 5 years ago!!!!!! Ask AI or GOOGL. These opinions if over 1 year out in the future are worthless. We do not run companies!! I do not run these companies either. So what I do is try and trade 10-20-30-40+ quality companies and swing them for a few bucks everytime…

No, I didn’t like LULU earnings. The actual earnings last quarter were ok, up like 4-5% but the guidance showed flat to a slight decline… NO! We do not want that of course! But here is the important thing.

LULU has a PE ratio of 10x [NKE even with the drop 30x now! I may like the stock at 25 dollars and that would still have a premium over LULU! AT 25!!!] As I have said, a private company trades at 5-10x earnings… Publicly trades companies should trade at a premium to that! The current basket of the 500 greatest companies in the world trade at 23x. By no means should LULU have a 23x… Earnings are expected at near 11 per share…[A secret weapon is they are retiring shares which increases EPS, cheat code! They purchased 2.2 million shares for 358 million last quarter for an average near 165] I cheated and asked AI google to break down some of the earnings… Even after all expenses and this 358 million used for shares, they still had free cash flow of 76 million! Guess what? That means it is healthy financially. Not growing, but healthy… They are able to use their 1.5 billion cash to deploy for ideas. [That cash is considered solid and near 100% because they have had positive free cash flows for years!] Now I have ideas if they wanted to pay me, but just stating facts. You can ask AI to go over this…. And as I have always said, if you buyback shares and have great free cash flow, you keep doing it and EPS grows fast. [Less shares outstanding so the income is divided by a lower number! AAPL does this!] LULU still has 650 million remaining on their buyback program…

No, it doesn’t deserve a 15x PE ratio, not now…. But let us say 12.5x of 11 dollars..

137.50….

This is not a stated or set rule… This is just me saying why maybe it should be 137.50 after this bad guidance…

The stock market, even Bitcoin trades daily… That means the closing price or current price is simply a reference point… It is perception and the next step is, are we bullish or bearish, should this trade up or down….

So LULU will be down… I will buy more if 100… I am in 124. [I made at least 15 dollars on the same 100 shares over the last 2-3 months, so net, I am still up!] Can it go lower? Of course PYPL has a 7x PE! Which makes no sense either!

 

Amazing earnings:

TTAN        AGX          GWRE [Guidance]        PL [Losing money still]        IOT         RBRK

 

Very Good earnings:

BBCP

 

Good earnings:

ABM        COO      DOCU

 

I sold 100 shares of LULU 124.50 to 128.50 [Then bought back 124 later in the day]

I sold 500 shares of ACI 15.45 to 16.10

I am in 250 shares of AVEX 24.90

I am in 75 shares of INTU 302.50

I am in 250 shares of CMH 28.25

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I was talking to a few traders yesterday via chat. Going over my strategies and what I look for. I will always do my best to help someone to fish rather than just give people things. It is always best to empower someone to freedom, prosperity then have entitled people. Many people do not understand that if you start taking money, goods away from Able bodies, give it to the poor disabled, that those less fortunate will depend on then forever…. The able bodies will be upset, mad, or even move and there will be nothing left, you will have chaos! This does not mean that the less fortunate is not capable of becoming an able body, many just need guidance, a path, a mentor…. The ones that are lazy and do not care to better themselves… Sorry but they need to go elsewhere, or be exiled to a facility where they can not harm everyone. In cany case:

I try and make 200-600 per trade. I try and make 100K per year in trading. There are 250 trading days in a year, so that is about 400 per trading day. Yes, I do have a good deal of capital to trade with, but it has taken me many years to do so. I try and trade what I deem to be stable, quality companies… I have near 40 long positions in my trading account. This is how I diversify. There is no guarantee that every position will go straight up so I must choose many stocks and maybe every few days something will hit.

Example:

Monday I buy 3 longs, none of them go up enough so that I can make the 200 I like to.

Tuesday I buy 3 more longs, 1 from Monday is up enough now, I sell it.

Wednesday I buy 3 more [I now have 8 longs since, I sold 1 Tuesday].

Thursday, I sell 3 longs from my 8, and add 1.

Friday, I buy 3  longs and sell 2.

No one can guarantee it, not I either. The stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment. The only thing I do is spread my knowledge to try and buy quality companies at a discount and sell them when they are up 50 cents to 1.50 [on average]

I have been trading SOFI for about 50 to 75 cents a clip. 500 shares of SOFI at 16 is 8,000. 500 x .50 is 250 dollars. Maybe you have $4,000 to trade with and want to make 100 per trade, etc… I just bought 500 shares of CHYM at 17.95, similar game plan…..

The problem with stocks that are 1 to 5 dollars [They call stocks under 5 penny stocks] generally they are not stable businesses. They are manipulated easier, so you have more volatility and not consistent.

I have lately been trading 2,000 shares at a time of SLQT around 1 dollar. [ I own 2,000 at 97 cents.] I try and trade that for 10 cents and have done so about 5x in the last 3-4 months.

If you have 2,000 in your trading account maybe you put 500 in 4 positions. [I started with 2,000 in 1994 and put 500 each in 4 companies]

Hope this helps others.

I try and trade things that are as good as SPY VOO or at a discount.

SP500 currently is trading near 23x earnings. [Expected earnings was boosted to 320 from around 305 January 1^(st), incredible] We are getting near 15% earnings growth and 9% sales growth. So the easiest way to describe this is:

 

Your company trading at 23x earnings for a year? Was the growth in earnings 15% year over year? Sales over 9% year over year?

 

I like to use ADBE as an example. [I am in ADBE 265 and 343]

The current PE is slightly over 10x ! [Earnings with 33 analysts are about 23.75]

March 14^(th) they reported their last earnings. On that report ADBE had 12% sales growth and 20% earnings year over year….

So it checked the boxes of under 23x [SP500 SPY VOO] Grew EPS over 15% and sales over 9%.

They also have very good financials, buying back shares too, they are able to give a dividend or special dividend if they wanted.

 

So yesterdays trades.

I sold 250 PAHC 29.15 to 30

I am in 500 CHYM 17.95

I am in 100 LULU 124.50

I am in 100 ROOT 53 [Also have 94]

I am in 250 PYPL 43.45 [Also have 54.50 and 59.50, have done a ton of positive trades]

I am in 250 CELH at 29.50 [Also have 41.50]

 

I do not want more than 3 net adds because anything is possible! As I said last week, maybe I would give 21x, earnings are expected at 320. That is 6,720 but we are over 7,500… This doesn’t mean we will crash it means risk reward though!

 

Excellent earnings :

AVGO [Valuation]        CRWD [Valuation]        FIVE        CIEN [Wow didn’t know this was up like 900% over 52 weeks!]

 

Very Good earnigs:

DSGX        VEEV

 

Stocks I am looking at:

AVEX   BILL    CALX   CMG  ELF    FISV  FOA   INTU      ITRI    MRX   NOG   NRDS    NU     OPRX PATH    PGY    PINS   PRAA    PSFE     PSIX    SOFI    TREE      UBER     WIX      Z

 

Good luck!