Good morning everyone. Some people did have questions yesterday. I did answer them but figured others may have the same questions. I have about 40 bags right now. Let us say the average that I am down is 2,500. [I am down about 10K on ODD but I also made profitable trades on PGY +350 and EPC +425] so we are making this example easier.

Do understand I am a swing trader. I try and buy good quality companies that are dipping. I try and buy things I deem below my fair value. I then swing them and try to make between 200 and 600 per trade. I have been trading since the very end of 1994. I was barely 14! Since about 2010, my goal with trading was to make 100K, no more no less. I have done that and more every year since! 2022 was very slow, was mainly put CITY and at that time I came close to not going over 100K. In 2020 and 2021 I made well over 100k! let us say it was in the 7 digits! I was able to retire thanksgiving of 2021. I worked in health insurance as a Medicare consultant. I was making about 150K a year after bonuses, commissions, started 2014 and decided the job was affecting my trading, and by that time the real estate was growing so fast. [I took a ton of money I made from the market to diversify into the stock market. I started working a W2 in 2012. This was mainly by choice. I had a serious health scare the end of 2016 and started buying real estate in 2017. I passed up some tremendous real estate deals in my early 20s but did not want to be a landlord. Now that I am a landlord, it is actually worse than expected! Then again, I am in C+ or B- areas, where people are paycheck to paycheck, but that is the only way you can make money! I do not recommend D . The cap rates are way higher, you could make more money but you will deal with heavy crime, bad areas.. also the appreciation may not exist! You will get cash flows, if you can collect… if you can turn around the property, and area, you will stand to make the greatest gain, but risk!

So back to the questions… Yes, I probably should do a stop loss, maybe 25%, sadly I have never used a real or a mental stop loss, ever! I have taken quicker losses but never a hard stop. That is a big error that I indeed have. But if you take 2,500 and multiply it by 40 bags. That means I am negative  about 100k.

I have netted above 100K already, more than that, so you know! So if I wanted to just wipe a lot of taxes off, I can just tax loss harvest and take hits on everything. This is why by December 1^(st) I would like to sell at least 10 of these bags….. By December 15^(th) another 10-15. If my average red bag is 2,500… and I average 300 per profitable trade, that means I make 8 trades to wipe out a bag. So you can see how I do well.

If you calculate all my trades, I am really right about 99% or higher! That is because I make quick trades and take my profits… is it the best way? You have to do what is comfortable for you. I had:

NVDA 90

AMD 85

MU 80

SNDK 43

SDC 83

WDC 50

But I also have MNDY bag 140, DOUL 165, TTD 36 and 55… and I can tell you a bunch of trades where I have taken the profits and the stocks are down like 75% or more!

I did last week read about another famous hedge fund manager who was right about 52% of trades! But if their portfolio had 50 positions, let us say, he had maybe 3 carrying everything! Or slightly 5% of his portfolio, he simply just rode his winners hard. And he said many others do the same! I would do that if I just had 100+ million to just sit and do this… but I don’t! So I hope this answers questions people may have.

 

I am willing to do up to 3 longs today.

I sold 500 PGY from 12.65 to 13.35 [350 profit]

I sold 500 EPC from 15.85 to 16.70 [425 profit]

I am in 250 PYPL at 43

 

Some excellent earnings:

NMM      STEP [Will buy the dip]       NVDA        AVEX [DD may add to Plays]       ELF [A little eh on guidance]        SBLK [May add to plays]

 

Some very good:

RL              NIO       YMM         

 

Some good:

WMS      AAP       DE      URBN

 

INTU did not have good earnings, they were not bad either, they were ok, guidance eh, but down 16% premarket I may add to plays and buy the dip.

 

Good luck!

GRPN Update: The Spring is Compressing 📈

The mechanical short squeeze thesis is playing out exactly as planned. As we push up, ballooning paper losses trigger automated broker margin calls, strict institutional risk stop-losses, and aggressive dynamic market-maker delta hedging in real-time long before the calendar expiration arrives.

The Plays for the Rest of the Week:

• The Floor ($15.00): This is our heavy physical baseline. The $15 strike is loaded with In-The-Money calls, forcing market makers to lock up millions of shares in their vaults to remain hedged. As long as we hold above $15, the supply vacuum is active.
• The Trigger Zone ($17.50–$17.72): This is the local daily resistance neckline we are actively testing.
• The Momentum Play: If we break and hold above $17.72 on a daily volume expansion exceeding 3.5 million shares, near-term out-of-the-money calls (targeting the $20.00 strike) will capture the maximum delta acceleration.
• The Launchpad ($20.00): This is the shorts' main defensive line. Because call open interest thins out significantly immediately after $20, forcing a daily print past this level leaves zero options liquidity resistance left to suppress a vertical squeeze.
• Price Action: Defending the right shoulder compression range beautifully at $17.41 (+2.84%). Bears successfully defended the $19.10 algorithmic wall yesterday, but they are running out of room.
• Volume Check: Sitting low at 1.2M shares. This proves we are still in the low-volume pinning phase. We still need that 8M+ share volume spike to trigger the gamma loop and blast past $22.50.
• Squeeze Mechanics:
  • Short Interest: Locked at a massive 56.8% of float.
  • Utilization: Maxed at 100% (zero borrow left).
  • Float Lock: Pod shop long-short pairing keeps loanability capped at 10% max.
  • Squeeze mechanics remain fully intact as long as the stock closes the week above the $16.49 structural stop-loss line.

TL;DR: The bear trap is set. The spring is fully compressed. We just need the volume spark to ignite the fuse. 🚀 Bottom line: The coiled spring is tight. Hold the $15 floor, watch the $17.72 breakout volume, and let the structural gamma loop do the heavy lifting.

This is not financial advise at all! I'm just a nerd.

Part of me likes focused businesses because they’re easier to understand.

But another part of me thinks smaller companies sometimes need multiple levers to survive and scale.

Single business dependence can be risky too.

Where do you stand on this?

Some people buy purely on vision. Others won’t touch anything until numbers are fully established.

Personally, I’m most interested in the awkward middle stage where a company has enough real operations to matter but still feels early.

How do you define that point?

A very focused business is easier to understand, but broader businesses sometimes have more long-term upside if execution is real. I’ve been torn on this while evaluating a few companies, including TROO.

Where do you usually land?

Good morning everyone. I met up with 3 more contractors Saturday in CT. I should be making a decision by Wednesday on a 130k-150K large renovation. This is for a large roof as well as a 3 story porch. I have met up with about 5 so far. It isn’t just about the money, it is making sure it is done correctly and will not be touched again for 30-50 years. So I have to go over some paperwork. This will be short and simple. I am also getting a lot done for my 3 property 11 unit deal from 1 seller, which should close in 4-5 weeks from here.

 

I was tweeting over the weekend on many of my most recent pics. WDC STX MU SNDK GOOGL PENG

I also posted some of my stuff to hedge fund managers like Bill Ackman… I do wish I had the opportunity. I am just as good if not better than any of them. Also, many people do not know but even the best, Jim Simons, was basically very right on a handball of names, they held them thru and it carried the weight of the whole portfolio… I am saying this, because if I had billions of dollars I can just sink in names, of course I would have held many of those names longer! But I don’t have anywhere near that capital. My win rate is crazy high, at least 99%!!! But I am down on some bags like 50% or more. So my only issue is I am taking big losses % wise.. Like last week a 60% loss on GAMB . But for every loss I take, I am doing 99 or more wins! My wins, I try and get 200-600 per trade.

Let us for simple purposes say an average win is 300. Let us use GAMB as an average loss, which was about 4,000.

300 x 99 = 29,700

-          4,000 = 25,700 per 100 trades

Not bad at all to me!

1 of my biggest losses right now is MNDY , 75 shares at 140 = 5,250

Just to give you an idea. I do have near 40 bags right now, some I am not down to much on. I will look to sell 10-15 for tax loss purposes by years end.

 

Excellent earnings : RAMP

Very Good earnings: RNW

Good earnings: BRC

 

I will get up to 2 longs today, unless I sell a position. I am adding too many bags!

 

I sold 250 APPN from 18.90 to 19.75

I am in 500 shares of EPC 15.85

I am in 250 KMX 36.95

I am in 250 TREE 35.25

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I always tell people as soon as they ask. The stock market is a live auction built on daily sentiment. I often get a question why is that stock going up? I want to invest in TESLA OPENAI SPACEX NIKE SHAK CBRS [New Ipo] .. These are just random names.. They ask me my opinion on them, they tell me these are going to go up, they are making money, the next generation…. I try to tell them the old myth is..

You invest in a company, the company grows sales, grows earnings and it will go up [ADBE TTD PYPL DUOL MNDY these are 5 random names where the companies have continued to grow sales, earnings and are at 3-5-10 year lows!] Just because you chose a company that is growing sales and earnings does not mean as a stock that is the one to buy! TSLA has not grown since 2023! It is sad to say but a stock is pure speculation! A stock price closed at a certain number, and the next day, that was simply a reference point! PLAIN AND SIMPLE! People try and say why a stock went up, went down…

It went up because there were more buyers than sellers…. It went down because there were more sellers than buyers. That is it! It is true, if a company has cash, makes cash they can do several things to make their stock attractive.

Buyback [Direct impact at the auction, they become bidders with way larger wallets than retail, this will also raise EPS and share count goes down]

They can use cash to pay down debt [They will raise earnings because of interest expense 99% of companies have debt!]

They can raise or pay a dividend [Investors/traders can say, wow I will get paid just to hold this]

They can do MA [Buy a business making money or attractive, amazing examples that everyone knows, Google bought Youtube, Did you know they have invested in SPACEX OPENAI and Anthropic ? Huge gains, they can sell them, buyback shares, dividend, pay down debt with invested cash]

They can do RD [Come out with new product]

They can advertise sign new contracts to boost sales/earnings

However, there is no set guarantee that company earns/or sells and then it will have a 20x , 25x, 40x, 60x or 100x…

The reason I use the pace of SPY VOO SP500 is because it is a basket of 500 of the best companies in the world. I didn’t say it, the world does…

So I use this to compare the companies I invest in.

For 2026 the SP500 companies together are expected to earn 300 dollars.

The SP500 is near 7,500….

This means we are trading at near 25x earnings!!! [Super duper high, the 2^(nd) most in history aside from 1999-2000 dot com bubble]

The companies are growing at 13% earnings and 9% sales..

Also, this is nothing anyone has taught me… It is not a rule… It is something I have used because I have been trading since the end of 1994!

So when I choose a company what I am looking at that day is:

Is it trading at 25x ? Is it growing earnings at 13% ? Sales at 9%?

If I am in ADBE current PE 10, the last quarter showed earnings growth near 20%, sales near 12%..... Should it not trade at way higher than 10x? That is exactly how I do it!

I use the name brand, cash flows, financials and my own DD to say it should be at least 16x.

23.55 [33 analysts] x 16x multiple = 376.80.. In my opinion it should be at least that price!

I am in 270 and 343…. So you see, sales, earnings etc mean 0! I am explaining this because I get these questions constantly, about many stocks… I wish there was an exact formula but the market is an auction!

 

I took a loss on GAMB at 3.75… My avg on 500 shares was about 10.50 . I must tax loss harvest to offset some gains…Someone was telling me a lot of DD about the company… yes, margins can increase, yes, maybe their MA to buy another company will pay off, but the company is and has been in the dog house! Meaning last year they grew sales and earnings at both 20% up! And were given a PE of like 20! That PE fell to 18, 16, 14, 12 etc.. and now the growth is negative, EPS is negative… unless you are TSLA GME you can not fool anyone! The story changed so I took the loss.. If they return to growth, I can revisit the company and see if the market has taken this out of the dog house. I am getting killed on PRGS DUOL MNDY TTD PYPL all names that the market once gave much higher multiples and the valuation makes no sense… This has worked for me greatly if you checked my research last year on:

NVDA

MU

AMD

SNDK

WDC

STX

For the same reasons on EPS, Sales and multiple I pounded the table on these names and traded them all… Well sadly, I had SNDK only once from 40 to 43.. That is it! I basically try and find great companies that the market is discounting… I may buy hot stocks but rarely!

So I hope this is valuable for someone.

 

I sold 250 KMX from 37 to 38.25.

I sold 500 GAMB at 3.75, took the loss 250 at 7.95 and 13.25

 

I will do up to 3 longs.

 

Great earnings:

FIG

 

Very good earnings:

WYY     BOOT      AENT

 

Good earnings:

LGCY     NMAX       AMAT

Good luck!

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

Good morning everyone. Taking care of some emergencies in CT. Just non stop, but I cant complain, it comes with the territory. So super short and simple.

 

I got my 3 new longs for the day. I will not get more unless I sell a bag. I have about 40 bags at the moment. I do not want more than 50 bags. I will take 10-15 as losses for taxes by December 15^(th).

I am in 100 WIX 56.50 [I had a sell at 59 and missed by 15 cents!]

I am 1,000 OPRX 5.25

I am in 250 APPN 18.90

 

I will get up to 3 more, the stuff on the title. These are all smaller scale for me, compared to the past.

Some excellent earnings:

ONDS [DD]         KLAR     CRMD [Tiny]     HLNFF [Never seen it before]    SNAL [Tiny]      ARX [DD]       ECO       TNK      STAA      AQST [Tiny Bio tech]

 

Some very good earnings:

KPTI [Tiny Bio tech]       AVAH      CLBT     ASM     PARK [Tiny]      USIO [Tiny]       STUB       PGEN      VTVT

 

Some good earnings:

NVMI      VSNT       DDS       GOOS     WWW    YETI      PLGO     STN    ENVX     CSCO

 

Good luck!

Good morning everyone. I will be buying the dip on WIX ! At open this will have a PE ratio of around 8-9x. That doesn’t always mean much. The stock market is a live auction. The big thing is that WIX actually bought back 17.5 million shares at an average price of 92!!! They used 1.6 billion! The company at open will be worth less than 4 billion! Now, I am not doing DD on cash flows, interest rates on loans etc, that is important, I am fairly busy, I said how this takes 60 to 90 mins. I am spending the 2-3 mins looking at the headlines. They are still looking for 10-15 growth. So my thought process is growth still near 15%, PE near 8, company still buying back shares, it has a lot of catalysts, but be careful bad earnings!

I may be buying TMDX ! Also worse than expected, but I am buying these in small scales, less than 1% of my portfolio! I may even buy some OPRX , also eh earnings yesterday… the thing is when a company is in the dog house and things turn they explode…

Most recently, check PENG , I just retweeted some of my stuff, in April it was just 16! Now 50+ . I retweeted many of my MU tweets. Do you know I was stuck in MU at 120 for 13 months! I watched it drop to 60! I was trading a 2^(nd) block as low as 80!

Yes, I would rather buy something with great sales, great earnings, hence when I report earnings, I no longer grade bad earnings! I used to give companies a 10 to 50!!! I highlight companies executing because there usually is momentum on the way up [not just the stock price, the company is executing] as well as downside. They almost always come hand in hand… I said for many months NBIS is a possibility buy the valuation already… I just tweeted my stuff from APLD saying how it was worth the risk reward because it was 4! Check! Now up 1,100% in a year. So I do see the growth in many names but your risk tolerance?

Look, I saw ASPN growth explosion, I was trading this 15 to 25… I was making nice gains.. the company stopped executing and I took the loss around 5.50, my avg was like 17? This was last year.. They hammered it for 4 quarters… then all of a sudden results hit the fan… and the valuation wasn’t even insane for what they were doing .[NBIS insane!] We must always follow a company every quarter. More recently I am getting annihilated on TTD and DUOL .. Both companies I bought as growth was decelerating but still above very good growth! Both! 20%

I view 20%+ growth in sales as very good.

Anything over 30% I classify as hyper growth.

The reason being the SP500 great companies grow sales at 10-20%.... So anything above the average great company is very good. 30% is hyper…

I expect every company to grow sales and earnings at 5-10%... if you are growing 5-10%, to me, you get a 65 score on your report card… You are supposed to be in the best 500 companies of the world… So my expectations are high.

The title has many companies I am watching. I will do up to 3 longs. WIX will be 1 of them.

 

I am in 250 shares of KMX at 37.

 

Excellent earnings:

FNV [Again]     PAYS [Tiny Wow]     NXT [Again]       BWAY [Tiny]      NBIS [Valuation]      EOSE [Wow may add to Plays]       TRMD [DD]

 

Very good earnings:

CNSWF      KRMN      AIP      EVLV      VSH        DT     ATAT      VEON [DD may add to Plays]

 

Good earnings:

DDI      ATRO     GILT         PSFE       GLBE       ICL

 

Good luck!

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There are lots of ways to find value in investing.

Over the last few years I’ve tried pretty much everything.

Swing trading.
Low P/E stocks.
Growth investing.
Options.
Forex.
Momentum.
Small caps.

Honestly, probably most of the strategies retail investors talk about online.

But the one thing that consistently stood out to me had nothing to do with indicators or complicated technical analysis.

It came from actually reading filings.

Most people only read headlines or Twitter posts about a company. Very few people actually take the time to read the corporate actions themselves.

That’s where I started noticing something interesting.

Occasionally, companies going through reverse splits will include wording like:

“Fractional shares will not be issued.”
“All fractional shares will be rounded up to the nearest whole share.”

I know reverse splits immediately turn a lot of people away, but hear me out.

I’m not talking about blindly buying bad companies.

What interested me was the market structure side of it and how certain situations can create weird little inefficiencies that most people never notice.

For example, depending on the split ratio and the wording used, a shareholder who would normally receive a fractional share after the split could instead receive a whole share due to rounding provisions.

It sounds small, but once I started digging deeper into this stuff a few years ago, I realized there are a surprising number of overlooked situations in the market that people ignore simply because they never read beyond the surface.

Since then I’ve spent a lot of time tracking corporate actions, comparing filings, and trying to better understand how these situations actually play out in practice. But honestly, I still find incredible value in long-term investing and buying companies with good P/E ratios. But I’ve found the most value from studying other types of value investing the ones nobody really talks about.........

What do you guys find the most value from ?

Otonomii AI caught my attention mostly because the conversation around it seems centered more on workflows than on features.

A lot of retail products compete on usability and accessibility, but institutional tools seem optimized around very different priorities like automation, systems coordination, and process quality.

The recent beta just made that discussion easier to notice.