u/Vignesh_Ranganathan

Some thoughts on Gold

As we are back to the bull market in Gold, after five months of slump, I wanted to revisit my favorite decade from the history of Gold, which is 1980s, before which Gold rallied from $45 to $800 in just two years, until Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the interest rates to 20%, with real rates bringing down the yield curve, that is the difference between short term bond yields and long term bond yields. When the world entered into recession, Gold crashed from its historic high, as people liquidated their gold, along with the central banks. At that point, the global retail holding of the gold was around 8%.

Today, the retail holding of the gold, that is the gold with you and me stands at mere 2% globally. If this increases by even 1%, gold could see a new historic high of $6,000 per ounce. This is without factoring in central banks buying, and that’s why we need to keep a tab on ETF inflows into gold.

If Fed decides to raise interest rates, it has to be to a level where the real rates surpasses the inflation. If interest rates are raised even by 50 bps, America enters into recession. A 75 bps hike puts us into global recession. If they decide to lower rates, gold eventually gains from it. Keeping the rates artificially low may look lucrative for now, but the raising bond yields reflects the inflation that is coming.

What should be done? Raise the rates, let companies go bankrupt, let banks declare insolvency, let people take the bitter pill, let prices come back to real value post recession, let the market decide who can own assets and who can direct investments thereafter. However, that rarely happens. The central bank will print more money to fund the national debt and interest on it, bailout the companies, waive off the bad loans, posture a clean slate, keep the rates so low again that everyone can borrow cheap money, call themselves entrepreneurs and businessmen, spend it like there is no tomorrow, while recurrent inflation erodes the purchasing power of our money and makes the hard asset owners rich, and the poor poorer.

Some thoughts on Gold

As we are back to the bull market in Gold, after five months of slump, I wanted to revisit my favorite decade from the history of Gold, which is 1980s, before which Gold rallied from $45 to $800 in just two years, until Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the interest rates to 20%, with real rates bringing down the yield curve, that is the difference between short term bond yields and long term bond yields. When the world entered into recession, Gold crashed from its historic high, as people liquidated their gold, along with the central banks. At that point, the global retail holding of the gold was around 8%.

Today, the retail holding of the gold, that is the gold with you and me stands at mere 2% globally. If this increases by even 1%, gold could see a new historic high of $6,000 per ounce. This is without factoring in central banks buying, and that’s why we need to keep a tab on ETF inflows into gold.

If Fed decides to raise interest rates, it has to be to a level where the real rates surpasses the inflation. If interest rates are raised even by 50 bps, America enters into recession. A 75 bps hike puts us into global recession. If they decide to lower rates, gold eventually gains from it. Keeping the rates artificially low may look lucrative for now, but the raising bond yields reflects the inflation that is coming.

What should be done? Raise the rates, let companies go bankrupt, let banks declare insolvency, let people take the bitter pill, let prices come back to real value post recession, let the market decide who can own assets and who can direct investments thereafter. However, that rarely happens. The central bank will print more money to fund the national debt and interest on it, bailout the companies, waive off the bad loans, posture a clean slate, keep the rates so low again that everyone can borrow cheap money, call themselves entrepreneurs and businessmen, spend it like there is no tomorrow, while recurrent inflation erodes the purchasing power of our money and makes the hard asset owners rich, and the poor poorer.