r/soxl

Been a few months since I was exposed to the thought of investing in leveraged ETFs (SOXL, SOXS, TQQQ, etc.). I came up with a theory of buying SOXL when it dips and selling it when it's slightly higher (e.g., TP at 50%) before buying SOXS, because SOXS would be low when SOXL is high. I then repeat this cycle in the opposite direction, where I sell SOXS when it's higher and buy back SOXL because it is low when SOXS is high. What are your thoughts/opinions on this Swing trading strategy, and is it sustainable/feasible for the long term?

I’m sitting at 121.77 for my average. Just curious about the others.

Just threw in $10k to swing trade at $165. I have a great feeling about the next couple days now that it broke past $160 and has been on the uptrend. To $200 we go! Does anyone else agree?

Main story: Semiconductors rallied after a much weaker-than-expected September jobs report sharply reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike this month. Payrolls increased by only 29,000 and previous months were revised lower, helping push the Nasdaq to a new intraday record as investors moved back into rate-sensitive technology and AI stocks.

AMD (P/E: ~157) Top Contributor. No material new company-specific announcement found since the last market close.

TER (P/E: ~62) #2 Top Contributor. No material new company-specific announcement found since the last market close.

AVGO (P/E: ~45) #3 Top Contributor. Broadcom rebounded as investors digested its planned financing package of up to $60 billion to support AI infrastructure purchases by customers including Anthropic. The structure could lock in substantial long-term demand for Broadcom’s custom AI chips and networking hardware.

ALAB (P/E: ~173) #3 Bottom Contributor. No material news found since the last market close.

INTC (P/E: N/A) #2 Bottom Contributor. No material negative news found since the last market close. Intel appears to be consolidating after its recent AI-CPU-driven rally.

MU (P/E: ~15) Bottom Contributor. Micron pulled back despite this week’s extremely strong earnings and outlook. The company said AI-driven memory demand is still exceeding available supply and expects tight conditions to continue through 2028; today’s decline appears primarily to be profit-taking after its recent run.

No News to Mention: MPWR, TXN, KLAC, ADI, NVDA, TSM, ON, LRCX, AMAT, MCHP, MRVL, MTSI, CRDO, QCOM, ENTG, NXPI, ASX, ASML, UMC, SKHY, ARM, STM, TSEM, CBRS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES	9.28%	2.95%	0.27%	0.82%
TER	TERADYNE	3.07%	8.00%	0.25%	0.74%
AVGO	BROADCOM INC	6.77%	3.35%	0.23%	0.68%
MPWR	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC	3.15%	5.79%	0.18%	0.55%
TXN	TEXAS INSTRUMENT INC	3.83%	4.44%	0.17%	0.51%
KLAC	KLA	3.97%	3.27%	0.13%	0.39%
ADI	ANALOG DEVICES	3.91%	3.10%	0.12%	0.36%
NVDA	NVIDIA	7.39%	1.34%	0.10%	0.30%
TSM	TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	3.00%	2.98%	0.09%	0.27%
ON	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP	1.47%	6.01%	0.09%	0.26%
LRCX	LAM RESEARCH	3.89%	2.17%	0.08%	0.25%
AMAT	APPLIED MATERIAL INC	3.98%	2.03%	0.08%	0.24%
MCHP	MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC	2.05%	3.59%	0.07%	0.22%
MRVL	MARVELL TECHNOLOGY	4.46%	1.57%	0.07%	0.21%
MTSI	MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS	1.00%	6.62%	0.07%	0.20%
CRDO	CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD	1.62%	4.03%	0.07%	0.20%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	3.85%	1.53%	0.06%	0.18%
ENTG	ENTEGRIS INC	1.16%	5.04%	0.06%	0.17%
NXPI	NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV	2.95%	1.87%	0.06%	0.17%
ASX	ASE TECHNOLOGY HOLDING ADR REPRESE	0.89%	6.10%	0.05%	0.16%
ASML	ASML HOLDING ADR REPRESENTING	1.46%	3.25%	0.05%	0.14%
UMC	UNITED MICRO ELECTRONICS ADR REP	0.68%	4.22%	0.03%	0.09%
SKHY	SK HYNIX AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARE	3.06%	0.84%	0.03%	0.08%
ARM	ARM HOLDINGS AMERICAN DEPOSITARY S	0.50%	5.18%	0.03%	0.08%
STM	STMICROELECTRONICS ADR	0.42%	1.74%	0.01%	0.02%
TSEM	TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR	1.18%	-0.18%	0.00%	-0.01%
CBRS	CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC CLASS A	0.84%	-1.82%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ALAB	ASTERA LABS	2.50%	-1.71%	-0.04%	-0.13%
INTC	INTEL CORPORATION	9.59%	-0.56%	-0.05%	-0.16%
MU	MICRON TECHNOLOGY	7.93%	-2.05%	-0.16%	-0.49%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	2.15%	6.46%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	2.18%	2.18%	6.54%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	6.54%	N/A	6.54%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.14%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	2.93%
SOXL	22.89%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: You know, going back to the bond market it occurred to me that maybe part of the reason interest rates are going up is that they see a better rate of return is in the stock market. You have to assume that the bonds and the stocks are equally appealing to the overall market at any given moment because otherwise people would flock to the more appealing one and make it more costly and thus lower the appeal. So if an almost guaranteed 5% return doesn't look appealing enough compared to the stock market to attract the money away from it, then it seems the stock market must be looking like a really good investment right now to the market.

18 more consecutive days like this and we'll reach my price target.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Be ready now . Today is the day. Fingers crossed

I exited yesterday my position.

And now am cribbing over today's gains.

Shall I re enter at this value or wait for it to plummet again?

Time to cross 200 soon!

Main story: Semiconductors rallied after Micron’s earnings reinforced the view that AI-driven memory demand is still outrunning supply. Memory producers and semiconductor-equipment companies led the gains as Micron said supply conditions could remain tight through 2028 and raised planned manufacturing investment, despite Treasury yields remaining near multi-decade highs.

MU (P/E: ~14.3) Top Contributor. Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42, then guided the current quarter to roughly $61.5 billion of revenue and $38.15 EPS. The company said long-term customer commitments have reached $32 billion and memory supply is likely to remain constrained through 2028.

SKHY (P/E: ~9.1) #2 Top Contributor. SK Hynix gained as Micron’s results reinforced expectations for a prolonged global memory shortage and continued pricing strength in DRAM and HBM. No material new SK Hynix-specific announcement found since the last market close.

AMAT (P/E: ~44.1) #3 Top Contributor. Applied Materials expanded its partnership with Besi to develop next-generation hybrid bonding and packaging technology for AI chips. Besi will also join Applied’s EPIC Center, while Micron’s plans for increased manufacturing investment provided an additional boost to equipment stocks.

CBRS (P/E: N/A) #3 Bottom Contributor. Cerebras remained under pressure after its post-IPO lockup released roughly 19.4 million shares for potential sale and executives filed notices covering about $84 million of stock. Concerns also remain over reports that OpenAI’s newest Ultrafast mode is currently running on Nvidia hardware rather than Cerebras systems.

QCOM (P/E: ~21) #2 Bottom Contributor. No material news found since the last market close.

AVGO (P/E: ~44.8) Bottom Contributor. Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to help finance AI infrastructure using TPUs designed with Google. The arrangement could make Anthropic Broadcom’s largest chip-design customer next year, although the shares still declined today.

No News to Mention: LRCX, CRDO, TER, KLAC, NVDA, ADI, TSEM, MRVL, ON, AMD, MTSI, ENTG, MPWR, NXPI, TSM, UMC, MCHP, TXN, STM, ASX, ARM, ALAB, ASML, INTC.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	MICRON TECHNOLOGY	7.93%	3.03%	0.24%	0.72%
SKHY	SK HYNIX AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARE	3.06%	5.08%	0.16%	0.47%
AMAT	APPLIED MATERIAL INC	3.98%	3.50%	0.14%	0.42%
LRCX	LAM RESEARCH	3.89%	3.53%	0.14%	0.41%
CRDO	CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD	1.62%	7.90%	0.13%	0.38%
TER	TERADYNE	3.07%	3.71%	0.11%	0.34%
KLAC	KLA	3.97%	2.77%	0.11%	0.33%
NVDA	NVIDIA	7.39%	1.09%	0.08%	0.24%
ADI	ANALOG DEVICES	3.91%	1.99%	0.08%	0.23%
TSEM	TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR	1.18%	6.10%	0.07%	0.22%
MRVL	MARVELL TECHNOLOGY	4.46%	1.46%	0.07%	0.20%
ON	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP	1.47%	4.18%	0.06%	0.18%
AMD	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES	9.28%	0.65%	0.06%	0.18%
MTSI	MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS	1.00%	5.90%	0.06%	0.18%
ENTG	ENTEGRIS INC	1.16%	2.87%	0.03%	0.10%
MPWR	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC	3.15%	1.02%	0.03%	0.10%
NXPI	NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV	2.95%	0.70%	0.02%	0.06%
TSM	TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	3.00%	0.67%	0.02%	0.06%
UMC	UNITED MICRO ELECTRONICS ADR REP	0.68%	2.90%	0.02%	0.06%
MCHP	MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC	2.05%	0.94%	0.02%	0.06%
TXN	TEXAS INSTRUMENT INC	3.83%	0.44%	0.02%	0.05%
STM	STMICROELECTRONICS ADR	0.42%	3.77%	0.02%	0.05%
ASX	ASE TECHNOLOGY HOLDING ADR REPRESE	0.89%	0.61%	0.01%	0.02%
ARM	ARM HOLDINGS AMERICAN DEPOSITARY S	0.50%	0.93%	0.00%	0.01%
ALAB	ASTERA LABS	2.50%	0.13%	0.00%	0.01%
ASML	ASML HOLDING ADR REPRESENTING	1.46%	-0.18%	0.00%	-0.01%
INTC	INTEL CORPORATION	9.59%	-0.19%	-0.02%	-0.06%
CBRS	CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC CLASS A	0.84%	-4.58%	-0.04%	-0.12%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	3.85%	-1.06%	-0.04%	-0.12%
AVGO	BROADCOM INC	6.77%	-2.15%	-0.15%	-0.44%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	1.44%	4.33%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.35%	1.35%	4.06%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	3.98%	N/A	3.98%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.13%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	2.50%
SOXL	24.18%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I'm seeing that oil exports from the middle east are close to recovering to pre-war levels (excluding Iran), although oil prices coming down remains to be seen. I said before that Trump would have to figure something out by the midterms and it looks like he might get through by the skin of his pants if oil prices start coming down later this month.

You know, between the model release timeline compressing so much, people posting tons of silly video game mods on X, and working protypes of AI controlled robots, I think these next 3 months are going to be nuttier than most people are ready for. A lot of expensive closed source tools, particularly by Adobe, are going to see clones with complete feature parity created and made available for free. This won't change much in the short run but I think Adobe is screwed. Microsoft probably will last longer but soon there's going to be Linux distros that are less buggy than windows and can run any windows program on them seamlessly and I've been ready to jump ship from Windows for a while if it weren't the least bad option.

If we are going off the hyperbolic theory that the exponential revenue curve of AI won't stop, then it seems software is going to be the first major economic sector that get's fully gobbled up, with more to follow. I don't know exactly how that looks, but there's little reason to pay millions for software when you can make a decent clone for a few thousand dollars worth of tokens with any additional features you could want, or just download an existing clone someone else already uploaded to github.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

rates up since 2009

midterm soon

but ATH?