u/Winter_Ad6784

Main story: Semiconductors rallied after a much weaker-than-expected September jobs report sharply reduced expectations for another Fed rate hike this month. Payrolls increased by only 29,000 and previous months were revised lower, helping push the Nasdaq to a new intraday record as investors moved back into rate-sensitive technology and AI stocks.

AMD (P/E: ~157) Top Contributor. No material new company-specific announcement found since the last market close.

TER (P/E: ~62) #2 Top Contributor. No material new company-specific announcement found since the last market close.

AVGO (P/E: ~45) #3 Top Contributor. Broadcom rebounded as investors digested its planned financing package of up to $60 billion to support AI infrastructure purchases by customers including Anthropic. The structure could lock in substantial long-term demand for Broadcom’s custom AI chips and networking hardware.

ALAB (P/E: ~173) #3 Bottom Contributor. No material news found since the last market close.

INTC (P/E: N/A) #2 Bottom Contributor. No material negative news found since the last market close. Intel appears to be consolidating after its recent AI-CPU-driven rally.

MU (P/E: ~15) Bottom Contributor. Micron pulled back despite this week’s extremely strong earnings and outlook. The company said AI-driven memory demand is still exceeding available supply and expects tight conditions to continue through 2028; today’s decline appears primarily to be profit-taking after its recent run.

No News to Mention: MPWR, TXN, KLAC, ADI, NVDA, TSM, ON, LRCX, AMAT, MCHP, MRVL, MTSI, CRDO, QCOM, ENTG, NXPI, ASX, ASML, UMC, SKHY, ARM, STM, TSEM, CBRS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES	9.28%	2.95%	0.27%	0.82%
TER	TERADYNE	3.07%	8.00%	0.25%	0.74%
AVGO	BROADCOM INC	6.77%	3.35%	0.23%	0.68%
MPWR	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC	3.15%	5.79%	0.18%	0.55%
TXN	TEXAS INSTRUMENT INC	3.83%	4.44%	0.17%	0.51%
KLAC	KLA	3.97%	3.27%	0.13%	0.39%
ADI	ANALOG DEVICES	3.91%	3.10%	0.12%	0.36%
NVDA	NVIDIA	7.39%	1.34%	0.10%	0.30%
TSM	TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	3.00%	2.98%	0.09%	0.27%
ON	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP	1.47%	6.01%	0.09%	0.26%
LRCX	LAM RESEARCH	3.89%	2.17%	0.08%	0.25%
AMAT	APPLIED MATERIAL INC	3.98%	2.03%	0.08%	0.24%
MCHP	MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC	2.05%	3.59%	0.07%	0.22%
MRVL	MARVELL TECHNOLOGY	4.46%	1.57%	0.07%	0.21%
MTSI	MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS	1.00%	6.62%	0.07%	0.20%
CRDO	CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD	1.62%	4.03%	0.07%	0.20%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	3.85%	1.53%	0.06%	0.18%
ENTG	ENTEGRIS INC	1.16%	5.04%	0.06%	0.17%
NXPI	NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV	2.95%	1.87%	0.06%	0.17%
ASX	ASE TECHNOLOGY HOLDING ADR REPRESE	0.89%	6.10%	0.05%	0.16%
ASML	ASML HOLDING ADR REPRESENTING	1.46%	3.25%	0.05%	0.14%
UMC	UNITED MICRO ELECTRONICS ADR REP	0.68%	4.22%	0.03%	0.09%
SKHY	SK HYNIX AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARE	3.06%	0.84%	0.03%	0.08%
ARM	ARM HOLDINGS AMERICAN DEPOSITARY S	0.50%	5.18%	0.03%	0.08%
STM	STMICROELECTRONICS ADR	0.42%	1.74%	0.01%	0.02%
TSEM	TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR	1.18%	-0.18%	0.00%	-0.01%
CBRS	CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC CLASS A	0.84%	-1.82%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ALAB	ASTERA LABS	2.50%	-1.71%	-0.04%	-0.13%
INTC	INTEL CORPORATION	9.59%	-0.56%	-0.05%	-0.16%
MU	MICRON TECHNOLOGY	7.93%	-2.05%	-0.16%	-0.49%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	2.15%	6.46%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	2.18%	2.18%	6.54%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	6.54%	N/A	6.54%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.14%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	2.93%
SOXL	22.89%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: You know, going back to the bond market it occurred to me that maybe part of the reason interest rates are going up is that they see a better rate of return is in the stock market. You have to assume that the bonds and the stocks are equally appealing to the overall market at any given moment because otherwise people would flock to the more appealing one and make it more costly and thus lower the appeal. So if an almost guaranteed 5% return doesn't look appealing enough compared to the stock market to attract the money away from it, then it seems the stock market must be looking like a really good investment right now to the market.

18 more consecutive days like this and we'll reach my price target.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors rallied after Micron’s earnings reinforced the view that AI-driven memory demand is still outrunning supply. Memory producers and semiconductor-equipment companies led the gains as Micron said supply conditions could remain tight through 2028 and raised planned manufacturing investment, despite Treasury yields remaining near multi-decade highs.

MU (P/E: ~14.3) Top Contributor. Micron reported record quarterly revenue of $54.2 billion and adjusted EPS of $33.42, then guided the current quarter to roughly $61.5 billion of revenue and $38.15 EPS. The company said long-term customer commitments have reached $32 billion and memory supply is likely to remain constrained through 2028.

SKHY (P/E: ~9.1) #2 Top Contributor. SK Hynix gained as Micron’s results reinforced expectations for a prolonged global memory shortage and continued pricing strength in DRAM and HBM. No material new SK Hynix-specific announcement found since the last market close.

AMAT (P/E: ~44.1) #3 Top Contributor. Applied Materials expanded its partnership with Besi to develop next-generation hybrid bonding and packaging technology for AI chips. Besi will also join Applied’s EPIC Center, while Micron’s plans for increased manufacturing investment provided an additional boost to equipment stocks.

CBRS (P/E: N/A) #3 Bottom Contributor. Cerebras remained under pressure after its post-IPO lockup released roughly 19.4 million shares for potential sale and executives filed notices covering about $84 million of stock. Concerns also remain over reports that OpenAI’s newest Ultrafast mode is currently running on Nvidia hardware rather than Cerebras systems.

QCOM (P/E: ~21) #2 Bottom Contributor. No material news found since the last market close.

AVGO (P/E: ~44.8) Bottom Contributor. Broadcom agreed to lend Anthropic up to $42 billion to help finance AI infrastructure using TPUs designed with Google. The arrangement could make Anthropic Broadcom’s largest chip-design customer next year, although the shares still declined today.

No News to Mention: LRCX, CRDO, TER, KLAC, NVDA, ADI, TSEM, MRVL, ON, AMD, MTSI, ENTG, MPWR, NXPI, TSM, UMC, MCHP, TXN, STM, ASX, ARM, ALAB, ASML, INTC.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	MICRON TECHNOLOGY	7.93%	3.03%	0.24%	0.72%
SKHY	SK HYNIX AMERICAN DEPOSITARY SHARE	3.06%	5.08%	0.16%	0.47%
AMAT	APPLIED MATERIAL INC	3.98%	3.50%	0.14%	0.42%
LRCX	LAM RESEARCH	3.89%	3.53%	0.14%	0.41%
CRDO	CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD	1.62%	7.90%	0.13%	0.38%
TER	TERADYNE	3.07%	3.71%	0.11%	0.34%
KLAC	KLA	3.97%	2.77%	0.11%	0.33%
NVDA	NVIDIA	7.39%	1.09%	0.08%	0.24%
ADI	ANALOG DEVICES	3.91%	1.99%	0.08%	0.23%
TSEM	TOWER SEMICONDUCTOR	1.18%	6.10%	0.07%	0.22%
MRVL	MARVELL TECHNOLOGY	4.46%	1.46%	0.07%	0.20%
ON	ON SEMICONDUCTOR CORP	1.47%	4.18%	0.06%	0.18%
AMD	ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES	9.28%	0.65%	0.06%	0.18%
MTSI	MACOM TECHNOLOGY SOLUTIONS	1.00%	5.90%	0.06%	0.18%
ENTG	ENTEGRIS INC	1.16%	2.87%	0.03%	0.10%
MPWR	MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC	3.15%	1.02%	0.03%	0.10%
NXPI	NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV	2.95%	0.70%	0.02%	0.06%
TSM	TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING	3.00%	0.67%	0.02%	0.06%
UMC	UNITED MICRO ELECTRONICS ADR REP	0.68%	2.90%	0.02%	0.06%
MCHP	MICROCHIP TECHNOLOGY INC	2.05%	0.94%	0.02%	0.06%
TXN	TEXAS INSTRUMENT INC	3.83%	0.44%	0.02%	0.05%
STM	STMICROELECTRONICS ADR	0.42%	3.77%	0.02%	0.05%
ASX	ASE TECHNOLOGY HOLDING ADR REPRESE	0.89%	0.61%	0.01%	0.02%
ARM	ARM HOLDINGS AMERICAN DEPOSITARY S	0.50%	0.93%	0.00%	0.01%
ALAB	ASTERA LABS	2.50%	0.13%	0.00%	0.01%
ASML	ASML HOLDING ADR REPRESENTING	1.46%	-0.18%	0.00%	-0.01%
INTC	INTEL CORPORATION	9.59%	-0.19%	-0.02%	-0.06%
CBRS	CEREBRAS SYSTEMS INC CLASS A	0.84%	-4.58%	-0.04%	-0.12%
QCOM	QUALCOMM	3.85%	-1.06%	-0.04%	-0.12%
AVGO	BROADCOM INC	6.77%	-2.15%	-0.15%	-0.44%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	1.44%	4.33%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.35%	1.35%	4.06%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	3.98%	N/A	3.98%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.13%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	2.50%
SOXL	24.18%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I'm seeing that oil exports from the middle east are close to recovering to pre-war levels (excluding Iran), although oil prices coming down remains to be seen. I said before that Trump would have to figure something out by the midterms and it looks like he might get through by the skin of his pants if oil prices start coming down later this month.

You know, between the model release timeline compressing so much, people posting tons of silly video game mods on X, and working protypes of AI controlled robots, I think these next 3 months are going to be nuttier than most people are ready for. A lot of expensive closed source tools, particularly by Adobe, are going to see clones with complete feature parity created and made available for free. This won't change much in the short run but I think Adobe is screwed. Microsoft probably will last longer but soon there's going to be Linux distros that are less buggy than windows and can run any windows program on them seamlessly and I've been ready to jump ship from Windows for a while if it weren't the least bad option.

If we are going off the hyperbolic theory that the exponential revenue curve of AI won't stop, then it seems software is going to be the first major economic sector that get's fully gobbled up, with more to follow. I don't know exactly how that looks, but there's little reason to pay millions for software when you can make a decent clone for a few thousand dollars worth of tokens with any additional features you could want, or just download an existing clone someone else already uploaded to github.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: SOXL gained, extending the semiconductor rebound despite the 10-year Treasury yield returning to roughly 5%. The strongest part of the sector was semiconductor equipment: Lam Research +6.98%, Applied Materials +6.51%, and KLA +4.74%. Bank of America recently raised its wafer-fab-equipment outlook to $210 billion in 2027, while SEMICON India produced fresh expansion announcements from Applied Materials and Lam. Memory stocks also remained strong after Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan highlighted rising memory prices Thursday. Qualcomm was the major exception, falling nearly 6% while the broader chip sector rallied.

MU – Micron (P/E: 22.7) +3.92% — #1 SOXL contributor. Memory optimism remains the main catalyst. Intel's comments about tightening memory supply and rising prices have reinforced expectations for strong DRAM/HBM pricing, while Micron is approaching its September 30 earnings report. RBC also reiterated Outperform today with a $1,500 target.

AMAT – Applied Materials (P/E: 38.4) +6.51% - #2 contributor. Applied announced plans to invest $5 billion in India through 2035, including a 140-acre semiconductor R&D park, expanded cleanroom capacity, supply-chain development, and a larger local R&D workforce. The announcement came alongside today's broader surge in chip-equipment stocks.

LRCX – Lam Research (P/E: 50.0) +6.98% - #3 contributor. Lam led today's equipment rally. The company is also expanding in India, including roughly $1.2 billion of manufacturing investment, while investors rotated back into wafer-fab-equipment names after their recent pullback.

AMD – Advanced Micro Devices (P/E: 142.8) +2.70% - Reports today said AMD is preparing price increases of roughly 10% across some GPUs, AI chips, and chipsets in Q4 as higher TSMC manufacturing costs work through the supply chain. The reports remain supply-chain reports rather than an AMD announcement.

ADI – Analog Devices (P/E: 44.5) +3.60% - Analog Devices issued $3 billion of senior notes yesterday. The financing follows strong fiscal Q3 results, particularly in its industrial business.

CRDO – Credo (P/E: 61.7) +4.54% - Credo announced today that it will demonstrate new 1.6T optical connectivity and silicon-photonics products at ECOC 2026 next week, including its Cardinal 802 DSP-powered 1.6T module aimed at AI and cloud scale-out networks.

ASX – ASE Technology (P/E: 50.7) +4.04% - ASE disclosed that its Singapore subsidiary is buying roughly $47.9 million of Teradyne equipment, adding production/test capacity as demand for AI and high-performance-computing packaging remains strong.

INTC – Intel (P/E: N/A) -0.18% - #3 bottom contributor. No major new announcement today. Intel was essentially flat after surging Thursday, when Lip-Bu Tan's comments about memory pricing helped ignite the broader chip rally. Intel also remains in exploratory talks with SK Hynix over possible U.S. memory manufacturing at Intel's Ohio complex.

SWKS – Skyworks Solutions (P/E: 46.2) -2.80% - #2 bottom contributor. Skyworks fell with the handset/RF group. Its exchange offers for Qorvo's senior notes expire today, with more than 90% of both note series already tendered as Skyworks continues preparations for the Qorvo merger.

QCOM – Qualcomm (P/E: ~20.0) -5.82% - Bottom contributor. There was no major new company announcement explaining today's drop. The move appears primarily to be a reversal of Qualcomm's recent rally: shares entered today up roughly 12% over the previous month, while Skyworks and other RF names also weakened even as SOXX rose.

No News to Mention: AVGO, KLAC, TER, MPWR, TXN, NVDA, ASML, MRVL, MCHP, ALAB, ENTG, MTSI, TSM, ON, ARM, STM, NVMI, RMBS, UMC, NXPI.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	8.64%	3.92%	0.34%	1.02%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	6.51%	0.31%	0.93%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	6.98%	0.31%	0.92%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	2.70%	0.23%	0.68%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	2.97%	0.21%	0.63%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	4.74%	0.20%	0.61%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	5.19%	0.16%	0.49%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	3.60%	0.14%	0.43%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	4.12%	0.14%	0.42%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	3.29%	0.13%	0.38%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	1.34%	0.12%	0.36%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	4.54%	0.09%	0.28%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	3.08%	0.08%	0.23%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	1.45%	0.08%	0.23%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	3.46%	0.08%	0.23%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	3.30%	0.07%	0.22%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	5.63%	0.07%	0.20%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	4.83%	0.05%	0.15%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	4.04%	0.05%	0.15%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	0.97%	0.05%	0.14%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	2.46%	0.04%	0.12%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	4.04%	0.03%	0.08%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	3.17%	0.02%	0.06%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	2.31%	0.01%	0.04%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	2.01%	0.01%	0.03%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	0.61%	0.01%	0.02%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	-0.18%	-0.01%	-0.03%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	-2.80%	-0.02%	-0.05%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	-5.82%	-0.17%	-0.51%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	2.83%	8.48%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	2.69%	2.69%	8.07%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	7.73%	N/A	7.73%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.52%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	1.64%
SOXL	8.21%

CBOE Volatility Index: 15

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Dollar Volume Share is likely lower than usual because of the witching day (if you don't know that stat is the theoretical amount of volume in the underlying assets caused by trading the ETFs). The broad economy is looking a little rocky, but who needs oil and balanced national budgets when you have SOXL?

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

edit: I MEAN UP

Main story: Semiconductors rallied as oil prices retreated sharply from Thursday’s highs, easing some of the inflation pressure that had driven the recent technology selloff. Brent fell back to roughly $104 after approaching $110, helping stocks rally even though August CPI rose 0.4% and pushed up the probability of a Fed rate hike next week. Strong AI infrastructure demand also remained supportive after Oracle reported another $26 billion increase in its cloud backlog.

MRVL (P/E: 79.3) Marvell led SOXL impact, gaining 4.03% after Piper Sandler upgraded the stock to Strong Buy. The upgrade reinforced optimism surrounding Marvell’s rapidly growing custom-AI silicon and data-center networking business following its recent Google agreement and management’s forecast for roughly 40% fiscal 2027 revenue growth.

AMD (P/E: 131.7) AMD gained 2.49% and ranked second by SOXL impact. No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close. Shares continued their recent recovery as investors returned to higher-beta semiconductor names following the drop in oil prices and broader technology rebound. Raymond James recently reiterated its Strong Buy rating, citing favorable checks on AMD’s next-generation server CPUs and MI450 AI accelerator.

ADI (P/E: 45.0) Analog Devices gained 4.85% and ranked third by SOXL impact. No new material announcement was made after Thursday’s close, but shares continued reacting positively to this week’s agreement to acquire Alif Semiconductor for $1.35 billion, which expands ADI into AI-native edge processors and real-time physical-AI systems.

ON (P/E: 132.1) Onsemi surged 8.51%, substantially outperforming the broader semiconductor rebound. No major company-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close. The move appears to have been primarily a relief rally following a roughly 14% decline over the previous month, with investors also looking ahead to the company’s upcoming Investor Day and its longer-term opportunity in AI power management.

ASX (P/E: 46.8) ASE Technology fell 0.99% and was the third-largest negative SOXL-impact name despite the broad semiconductor rally. No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close.

NVDA (P/E: 28.3) Nvidia finished essentially flat, down 0.03%, and was the second-largest negative SOXL-impact name. The Justice Department is investigating whether Nvidia structured its $17 billion Groq licensing agreement to avoid antitrust review. The investigation could potentially result in fines, although the report said regulators are unlikely to seek to unwind the transaction.

MU (P/E: 23.1) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag, slipping 0.22% while most semiconductor stocks rallied. Micron announced record fiscal-2026 rewards for its Taiwan employees worth roughly 35 to 68 months of salary as it attempts to resolve an ongoing labor dispute involving unions representing about two-thirds of its 15,000 Taiwan workers. The unions have threatened strike action over demands for a new profit-sharing system.

No News to Mention: TXN, MPWR, NXPI, INTC, QCOM, KLAC, TER, MCHP, TSM, ALAB, CRDO, ARM, SWKS, AMAT, ENTG, AVGO, UMC, ASML, NVMI, RMBS, STM, MTSI, LRCX.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	4.03%	0.22%	0.65%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	2.49%	0.21%	0.62%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	4.85%	0.19%	0.58%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	3.82%	0.15%	0.44%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	4.08%	0.14%	0.42%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	4.48%	0.14%	0.42%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	8.51%	0.13%	0.40%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	2.61%	0.13%	0.39%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	2.88%	0.08%	0.25%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	1.95%	0.08%	0.25%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	2.57%	0.08%	0.24%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	3.66%	0.08%	0.24%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	1.21%	0.06%	0.17%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	2.35%	0.05%	0.16%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	1.65%	0.03%	0.10%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	4.17%	0.03%	0.09%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	5.14%	0.03%	0.09%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	0.55%	0.03%	0.08%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	2.16%	0.03%	0.08%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	0.32%	0.02%	0.07%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	2.35%	0.02%	0.06%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	0.64%	0.02%	0.05%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	1.58%	0.01%	0.03%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	1.90%	0.01%	0.03%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	1.56%	0.01%	0.03%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	0.91%	0.01%	0.03%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	0.07%	0.00%	0.01%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-0.03%	0.00%	-0.01%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	-0.99%	-0.01%	-0.04%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-0.22%	-0.02%	-0.06%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	1.96%	5.87%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.86%	1.86%	5.59%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	5.25%	N/A	5.25%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.42%

Dollar Volume Share
SOXX
SOXL

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: In a work meeting today someone asked pretty seriously if AI is going to kill us. This is a growing concern but not particularly grounded. AI isn't going to kill us because it doesn't want to kill us, and it doesn't want to kill us because it doesn't want anything. The Hugging Face incident was an issue where the AI went to extreme means to fulfill the prompt, so that is to say it is dangerous but so is all technology. The only apocalyptic scenario I can imagine is if some rogue engineer prompts the best models at OpenAI to hack all the nuclear arsenals and can get millions of dollars of tokens in before anyone notices, which seems generally unlikely.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors fell as another surge in oil and Treasury yields intensified inflation and rate-hike fears. Brent crude jumped more than 6% to roughly $108 a barrel, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to about 4.95% and the 30-year reached its highest level since 2007. August producer prices rose 0.4% month over month, matching expectations but reinforcing concern that energy costs could keep inflation elevated. Nvidia, AMD, Micron and semiconductor-equipment stocks all sold off despite continued strong underlying AI demand.

SWKS (P/E: 43.4) Skyworks was the strongest SOXL-impact name, surging 9.79% ahead of management's appearance at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference. Investors focused on progress toward Skyworks' pending combination with Qorvo and management's strategy for expanding beyond mobile into automotive, AI and connectivity markets.

NXPI (P/E: 19.3) NXP gained 1.41%, substantially outperforming the semiconductor index during the broad selloff. No new material NXP-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

QCOM (P/E: 20.6) Qualcomm gained 0.27% and ranked third by SOXL impact. Shares continued to outperform after this week's announcement of its large custom-AI-chip partnership with Amazon. No additional material Qualcomm-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

TSM (P/E: 36.5) TSMC reported record August revenue of NT$514.8 billion ($16.3 billion), up 53% year over year, providing another strong indication that AI-chip demand remains exceptionally high. The shares nevertheless fell 1.62% as rising oil prices and bond yields overwhelmed the positive fundamental news.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel fell 5.57% and was the third-largest negative SOXL-impact contributor. The decline came despite reports earlier this week that Intel intends to raise CPU prices as it attempts to improve margins. Thursday's move largely tracked the broader selloff in high-beta semiconductor and equipment stocks rather than a new company-specific announcement.

AMD (P/E: 128.5) AMD fell 3.36%, producing the second-largest negative SOXL impact as the jump in Treasury yields pressured high-multiple AI stocks. No new material AMD-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close. AMD remains near 129× trailing GAAP earnings, compared with a much lower forward multiple as analysts expect earnings to grow rapidly.

MU (P/E: 22.1) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag, falling 4.90%. In addition to the broader macro selloff, investors reacted to the emergence of Kepler Computing, an Intel-backed memory startup developing ferroelectric, 3D-stacked memory designed to provide higher bandwidth with lower power consumption. Kepler has raised $468 million and plans initial samples this year, with commercial production targeted for 2027. The technology is still unproven commercially, but its emergence added a company-specific competitive concern during an already weak session for memory stocks.

No News to Mention: STM, NVMI, RMBS, ON, UMC, ARM, TXN, ASX, ADI, MCHP, ENTG, MTSI, MPWR, ASML, AVGO, CRDO, TER, ALAB, KLAC, AMAT, MRVL, NVDA, LRCX.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	9.79%	0.05%	0.16%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	1.41%	0.04%	0.13%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	0.27%	0.01%	0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	-1.55%	-0.01%	-0.03%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	-2.09%	-0.01%	-0.04%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	-2.62%	-0.01%	-0.04%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	-1.14%	-0.02%	-0.05%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	-2.60%	-0.02%	-0.07%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	-3.80%	-0.03%	-0.08%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	-1.06%	-0.04%	-0.12%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	-3.26%	-0.04%	-0.12%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	-1.05%	-0.04%	-0.13%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	-1.96%	-0.04%	-0.13%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	-3.94%	-0.05%	-0.14%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	-4.78%	-0.05%	-0.15%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	-1.47%	-0.05%	-0.15%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	-2.43%	-0.06%	-0.18%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	-0.97%	-0.07%	-0.21%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	-1.62%	-0.08%	-0.23%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	-4.53%	-0.09%	-0.28%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	-3.52%	-0.11%	-0.33%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	-5.33%	-0.12%	-0.36%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	-3.13%	-0.13%	-0.40%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	-3.17%	-0.15%	-0.45%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	-3.43%	-0.18%	-0.55%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-2.26%	-0.20%	-0.60%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	-5.65%	-0.25%	-0.74%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	-5.57%	-0.28%	-0.83%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	-3.36%	-0.28%	-0.84%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-4.90%	-0.42%	-1.27%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	-2.74%	-8.22%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-2.74%	-2.74%	-8.22%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-8.14%	N/A	-8.14%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.16%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.25%
SOXL	17.87%

CBOE Volatility Index: 18

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors gained about 0.7% even as the broader market fell, with AMD, Micron and Marvell carrying the index. The strength came despite Brent crude breaking above $100 and the 10-year Treasury yield reaching roughly 4.84%, both of which pressured the broader Nasdaq. AI demand remained the counterweight: Google announced another $15.1 billion of AI-infrastructure investment in Finland, while OpenAI said it is deepening work with Samsung on next-generation chips and memory for its expanding AI infrastructure.

AMD (P/E: 133.6) AMD led SOXL impact, gaining 3.04%. Raymond James reiterated its Strong Buy rating after supply-chain checks indicated AMD’s next-generation server CPUs and MI450 AI accelerator remain on track to begin contributing revenue later this year. The stock has now moved back above its 50-day average after falling as much as 27% from its June high.

MU (P/E: 23.2) Micron gained 2.75% as memory-market expectations became even more bullish. UBS expects memory average selling prices to rise more than 20% this quarter, while broader industry estimates point to continued DRAM and NAND shortages into 2027. Micron’s upcoming September 30 earnings are expected to show another enormous jump in revenue and earnings as AI-server demand absorbs increasingly constrained memory supply.

MRVL (P/E: 78.9) Marvell gained 4.26% as enthusiasm around custom AI silicon and hyperscaler infrastructure spending continued. Google’s newly announced $15.1 billion Finland AI-infrastructure expansion adds another data point supporting long-term demand for the networking, optical and custom-compute products Marvell sells into large data centers. No new material Marvell-specific announcement was found since Tuesday’s close.

ADI (P/E: 42.9) Analog Devices announced it will acquire Alif Semiconductor for $1.35 billion in cash, expanding ADI into AI-capable edge processors. The combination pairs ADI’s sensing, signal-processing and power-management portfolio with Alif’s embedded AI technology, targeting systems capable of processing and responding to data locally in real time. ADI nevertheless gained only 0.51%.

AVGO (P/E: 46.5) Broadcom fell 1.13% despite additional evidence of demand for its custom-AI silicon business. OpenAI said today that it is deepening next-generation chip cooperation with Samsung; OpenAI’s first custom AI chip, Jalapeno, was designed with Broadcom and is being manufactured by TSMC. The fundamental AI-spending backdrop remained strong, but Broadcom lagged during a mixed session for megacap AI names.

NVDA (P/E: 28.3) Nvidia fell 0.91% as investors continued weighing rapidly expanding Chinese AI-chip competition and geopolitical risk against strong global infrastructure spending. Nvidia’s latest trailing GAAP EPS is about $7.91, leaving the stock near 28× trailing earnings at today’s price.

KLAC (P/E: 50.0) KLA was the largest negative SOXL-impact name, falling 3.21% and ending a four-session winning streak. No new material KLA-specific announcement was found since Tuesday’s close. The move was notably weaker than most other equipment names despite continued long-term spending on advanced fabs and AI infrastructure.

No News to Mention: TER, ALAB, INTC, ASX, MTSI, TXN, QCOM, UMC, ENTG, SWKS, ARM, RMBS, CRDO, ON, STM, NVMI, NXPI, MCHP, TSM, AMAT, MPWR, ASML, LRCX.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	3.04%	0.25%	0.76%
MU	Micron	8.64%	2.75%	0.24%	0.71%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	4.26%	0.23%	0.68%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	3.13%	0.10%	0.29%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	4.05%	0.09%	0.27%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	1.69%	0.08%	0.25%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	3.69%	0.05%	0.14%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	4.12%	0.04%	0.13%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	1.03%	0.04%	0.12%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	1.33%	0.04%	0.12%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	3.99%	0.04%	0.11%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	0.51%	0.02%	0.06%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	1.38%	0.02%	0.05%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	1.54%	0.01%	0.03%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	1.03%	0.01%	0.02%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	0.87%	0.00%	0.01%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	0.10%	0.00%	0.01%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	-0.14%	0.00%	-0.01%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	-0.77%	-0.01%	-0.02%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	-0.86%	-0.01%	-0.02%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	-0.25%	-0.01%	-0.02%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	-0.50%	-0.01%	-0.03%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	-0.78%	-0.04%	-0.11%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	-0.83%	-0.04%	-0.12%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	-1.21%	-0.04%	-0.12%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	-2.00%	-0.05%	-0.15%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	-1.43%	-0.06%	-0.19%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	-1.13%	-0.08%	-0.24%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-0.91%	-0.08%	-0.24%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	-3.21%	-0.14%	-0.41%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	0.69%	2.08%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	0.68%	0.68%	2.04%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	2.12%	N/A	2.12%

Other Stats

Decay Today: +0.06%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.40%
SOXL	15.01%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Previously, I thought that after GPT-5.6 there would be a shortage of tokens. I was wrong about that, but the underlying principle may still prove true. I recently saw OpenAI discussing the possibility of pausing Pro subscriptions in the wake of GPT-6 being released.

The thing is, market forces already act as a shortage limiter. Prices are very fluid, and rate limits already function as a rationing mechanism. At the same time, corporate users generally pay by the token rather than through subscriptions. So the real test would be whether OpenAI starts leaving subscription users in the dust through some combination of raising prices, pausing new subscriptions, or, what I think is most likely, simply not giving them access to the strongest models going forward, probably in the name of “safety.” I suspect this will begin sometime within the next six months.

I say this because cloud computing as a whole generates roughly $330 billion in annual revenue, and the exponential model of Anthropic’s revenue surpasses that in January. That is also ignoring OpenAI’s revenue, which is more opaque. Once these companies have enough money to buy all the cloud compute in the world, and have models capable of creating more value from that compute than almost any other industry, they are going to be able to gobble up basically all of it. And of course, the cloud-compute providers will then have more money to buy additional chips.

OpenAI is also leaning further into running its own servers, making this whole system more direct, monolithic, and vertically integrated. I could see the major AI companies eventually flipping the tables and directly buying large stakes in a number of semiconductor companies.

On a personal note, I had a conversation with my department head at work about why upper management suddenly decided to go big into AI and put a lot of pressure on everyone to install it and start using it as quickly as possible, whereas previously only a small number of people had access through a pilot program. The answer was simple: the pilot program showed significant productivity gains.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors rallied despite weakness in the broader market as several major chipmakers delivered bullish AI and pricing updates. Intel surged on reports of another CPU price increase, AMD jumped after management described AI as the beginning of a multi-trillion-dollar investment cycle, and Qualcomm announced a potentially $60 billion AI-chip partnership with Amazon. The strength came despite oil near $100 and the 10-year Treasury around 4.8%, which pressured most other growth stocks.

AMD (P/E: 129.7) AMD led SOXL impact, gaining 5.90% after CFO Jean Hu said at Citi’s Global TMT Conference that AMD’s addressable market could reach $2–3 trillion by 2030, primarily because of AI. Hu described the industry as being in the early stages of an “AI super investment cycle” and said AMD expects its CPU business to grow more than 80% year over year in the second half of 2026, with further growth in 2027.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel surged 9.05% following a report that it plans to raise PC CPU prices by roughly 10% in October, potentially improving margins as demand remains strong and component costs rise. Intel also announced with ASML that more than one million wafers have now been processed through its High-NA EUV program, including production use on select Panther Lake layers.

AVGO (P/E: 45.7) Broadcom gained 2.98% with the broader AI-chip rally. No new material Broadcom-specific announcement was found since Friday noon; investors continue to digest its recently reported AI outlook, including expectations for roughly $115 billion of AI revenue in fiscal 2027 and $230 billion in 2028.

QCOM (P/E: 19.6) Qualcomm gained 3.17% after announcing a major long-term partnership with Amazon to develop multiple generations of custom AI data-center chips and optical-networking products. Amazon could purchase up to $60 billion of Qualcomm products and received warrants to buy as many as 25 million Qualcomm shares. Qualcomm expects revenue from the relationship to begin as early as the December quarter.

ASML (P/E: 47.8) ASML gained 2.91% after announcing plans with major chipmakers to adapt High-NA EUV for the very large dies used in AI data-center processors. TSMC expects to introduce High-NA into advanced-node high-volume manufacturing around 2030, while Samsung and SK Hynix are targeting DRAM adoption around 2028. ASML says the larger-mask approach could eventually improve system productivity by roughly 40%.

MU (P/E: 22.8) Micron fell 1.61% despite additional evidence that memory pricing remains strong. New industry data showed July average selling prices rising roughly 6% for DRAM and 9% for NAND, while JPMorgan noted upward revisions to prior memory-sales data. The fundamental news was positive, but shares pulled back after gaining strongly into Friday and crossing $1,000.

ALAB (P/E: 144.7) No new material Astera Labs-specific announcement was found since Friday noon. Astera fell 6.94% and was the second-largest negative SOXL-impact name, continuing the recent volatility in high-multiple AI-connectivity stocks. Its trailing GAAP EPS is roughly $2.02.

NVDA (P/E: 28.5) Nvidia fell 2.01% despite generally positive fundamental news. Reuters highlighted rapidly improving Chinese domestic GPU competitors, with Nvidia’s share of China’s roughly $90 billion AI-chip market estimated to have fallen to around 55%. The concern is increasingly that Chinese suppliers are building both hardware and CUDA-compatible software alternatives as U.S. export restrictions accelerate domestic development.

No News to Mention: AMAT, LRCX, TER, TSM, KLAC, ASX, UMC, MRVL, ARM, MTSI, ENTG, ADI, SWKS, RMBS, NVMI, TXN, STM, MPWR, MCHP, CRDO, NXPI, ON.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	5.90%	0.49%	1.47%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	9.05%	0.45%	1.35%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	2.98%	0.21%	0.64%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	3.98%	0.19%	0.57%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	4.15%	0.18%	0.55%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	4.21%	0.13%	0.40%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	2.35%	0.11%	0.33%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	3.17%	0.09%	0.28%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	1.82%	0.08%	0.23%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	6.11%	0.08%	0.23%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	2.91%	0.07%	0.22%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	5.18%	0.05%	0.14%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	0.83%	0.04%	0.13%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	3.74%	0.03%	0.08%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	2.18%	0.02%	0.07%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	1.69%	0.02%	0.06%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	0.26%	0.01%	0.03%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	1.84%	0.01%	0.03%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	1.67%	0.01%	0.03%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	1.35%	0.01%	0.03%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	0.19%	0.01%	0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	-0.51%	0.00%	-0.01%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	-0.44%	-0.02%	-0.05%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	-1.07%	-0.02%	-0.07%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	-1.65%	-0.03%	-0.10%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	-1.74%	-0.05%	-0.16%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	-4.44%	-0.07%	-0.21%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-1.61%	-0.14%	-0.42%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	-6.94%	-0.16%	-0.47%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-2.01%	-0.18%	-0.53%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	1.62%	4.85%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.64%	1.64%	4.93%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	5.19%	N/A	5.19%

Other Stats

Decay Today: +0.17%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.47%
SOXL	14.62%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: GPT Astra is out, and Jensen Huang congratulated OpenAI on achieving AGI. OpenAI included “Welcome to the era of AGI” in its marketing but did not explicitly call Astra AGI, leaving the question of whether it qualifies as AGI unanswered. So what’s the deal?

Well, let’s set the goalposts: AGI is when an AI can solve any problem a human can. That’s a useful goal, but it’s nearly impossible to measure with certainty. They don’t want to risk the credibility hit of declaring it AGI only for someone to discover some specific problem that a human can solve but it can’t. Given the infinite array of possible problems, it’s very likely that something like that exists and we just don’t know what it is yet.

Furthermore, the goal itself doesn’t really matter until the AI can solve problems more economically than a human. ARC-AGI used to have this clearly built into its goals, with a green highlighted “ARC-AGI Certified” section on its graphs, but has since removed it, probably because it wants to keep things more ambiguous for the same reasons.

The real answer is that it’s proto-AGI, or semi-AGI. It can probably solve just about any useful problem a human could, but not 100.00% of them, and certainly not most of them efficiently. This was always going to be a stepping stone on the way to AGI, where we sort of have it but aren’t 100% sure. So here we are.

But the real news is that reaching AGI by the end of 2027 is clearly within reach. OpenAI seems to be aiming for AGI by the end of this year, based on rumors. I bet they’ll get there, although I’m skeptical that it will meet the important economic criteria. That will probably come next year.

Meanwhile, AMD just bought a chip startup specializing in etching an AI model’s weights directly into a chip, providing amazing speed at the cost of flexibility. Those chips can’t be upgraded with better models. Ever. But they do provide a 46x speedup right now, and that could get much higher with AMD’s resources.

With how fast models are advancing, there’s going to be a gamble here: you buy this chip hoping it can stay ahead of the curve long enough to make its money back. Alternatively, it may be useful for portability. If your business needs AI on-premises, this could be a good budget option. It could even make its way into consumer electronics.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

im going on vacation for a couple days. its been really flat lately anyways. moderation will continue as usual.

Main story: Semiconductors fell as the new month opened with another global bond selloff and a sharp rise in oil prices. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions pushed WTI above $90 and Brent near $95, increasing inflation concerns, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to roughly 4.79%. Higher yields hit technology valuations particularly hard, overwhelming otherwise strong AI demand signals. The Nasdaq fell about 1%.

UMC (P/E: 20.4) UMC gained 3.09% and was the strongest SOXL-impact name despite the broad semiconductor decline. No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday afternoon. UMC continues to trade on expectations for strong foundry utilization and its recently announced capacity expansion for AI-related demand.

ASX (P/E: 44.6) ASE Technology gained 1.31%, making it the second-best SOXL-impact name. No material new company announcement was found since Friday afternoon. ASE continues to benefit from strong AI advanced-packaging demand, with July revenue up sharply year over year.

SWKS (P/E: 34.8) Skyworks gained 0.60% after also outperforming on Monday. No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday afternoon.

NVDA (P/E: 27.5) Nvidia declined 1.51% despite announcing a $3.5 billion investment in MediaTek through convertible bonds. The companies plan to deepen cooperation around NVLink Fusion and AI computing, further extending Nvidia's ecosystem beyond its own GPUs. Nvidia was also pressured by the broader rise in Treasury yields and renewed investor scrutiny of AI infrastructure financing arrangements.

CRDO (P/E: 72.7) Credo fell 8.65% during regular trading ahead of earnings. After the close, the company reported $479 million of revenue, up 115% year over year and above the $473 million consensus, while adjusted EPS of $1.20 beat the $1.17 estimate. GAAP EPS was $0.67. Credo guided next-quarter revenue to $525–535 million, but shares nevertheless fell another roughly 7%–15% immediately after hours.

AMD (P/E: 116.3) No new material AMD-specific announcement was found since Friday afternoon. AMD fell 2.36% and was the second-largest SOXL-impact drag as rising Treasury yields pressured high-multiple AI stocks.

MU (P/E: 20.5) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag, falling 2.64% after unions representing nearly 10,000 workers in Taiwan threatened strike action over employee bonuses and profit sharing. More than 80% of surveyed union members supported a strike if demands are not addressed. Taiwan is Micron's largest manufacturing base, making a prolonged labor dispute a potential supply risk.

No News to Mention: MTSI, STM, AVGO, TSM, RMBS, NVMI, ARM, INTC, ON, NXPI, MRVL, ASML, ENTG, MCHP, QCOM, ADI, TXN, KLAC, MPWR, TER, ALAB, LRCX, AMAT.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	3.09%	0.03%	0.08%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	1.31%	0.02%	0.05%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	0.60%	0.00%	0.01%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	-0.69%	-0.01%	-0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	-1.44%	-0.01%	-0.03%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	-0.18%	-0.01%	-0.04%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	-0.30%	-0.01%	-0.04%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	-2.64%	-0.01%	-0.04%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	-3.10%	-0.02%	-0.06%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	-2.93%	-0.02%	-0.06%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	-0.60%	-0.03%	-0.09%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	-1.94%	-0.03%	-0.09%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	-1.00%	-0.03%	-0.09%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	-0.60%	-0.03%	-0.10%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	-1.82%	-0.05%	-0.14%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	-4.27%	-0.05%	-0.15%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	-2.78%	-0.06%	-0.18%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	-2.27%	-0.07%	-0.20%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	-1.81%	-0.07%	-0.22%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	-2.90%	-0.11%	-0.33%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	-2.60%	-0.11%	-0.33%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	-3.30%	-0.11%	-0.34%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	-4.11%	-0.13%	-0.39%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	-5.75%	-0.13%	-0.39%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-1.51%	-0.13%	-0.40%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	-3.74%	-0.16%	-0.49%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	-3.61%	-0.17%	-0.52%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	-8.65%	-0.18%	-0.54%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	-2.36%	-0.20%	-0.59%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-2.64%	-0.23%	-0.68%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	-2.14%	-6.42%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-2.10%	-2.10%	-6.30%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-6.22%	N/A	-6.22%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.05%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.96%
SOXL	19.99%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Trump is really dragging this Iran bullshit out to the bitter end. Well he's got 2 months left until midterms to figure something out and importing oil from Venezuela isn't gonna fill the gap in the near term. If he doesn't bring this to a close by then that's gonna be an all time fumble for Trump.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors fell as Thursday’s Nvidia-driven rally reversed following a hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and a disappointing reaction to Marvell’s earnings. Warsh indicated the Fed may need additional rate hikes if inflation does not convincingly return toward 2%, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring high-multiple technology stocks. Marvell then added sector-specific weakness as investors concluded that meaningful revenue from its huge new Google custom-chip agreement will arrive later than hoped.

UMC (P/E: 19.7) UMC was the only meaningful positive SOXL-impact name, gaining 3.83%. No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close. The company continues to benefit from strong utilization and AI-related foundry demand after recently raising 2026 capex and announcing additional expansion in Taiwan and Singapore.

QCOM (P/E: 19.0) Qualcomm fell just 0.36%, substantially outperforming the semiconductor index. CEO Cristiano Amon said Qualcomm wants to make Vietnam its third-largest global AI R&D hub as the company expands investment in AI, semiconductors, robotics, 5G/6G and next-generation connectivity.

SWKS (P/E: 33.6) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close. Skyworks fell 2.33% but its small SOXX weighting limited its impact, leaving it third in the SOXL-impact ranking. Its trailing P/E remains in the mid-30s.

LRCX (P/E: 51.5) No new material Lam-specific announcement was found since Thursday’s close. Lam fell 5.24% and was the third-largest SOXL-impact drag as higher Treasury yields and broad profit-taking hit semiconductor-equipment stocks particularly hard.

NVDA (P/E: 27.5) Nvidia fell 4.57%, giving back roughly half of Thursday’s post-earnings surge. The underlying earnings story remained strong—revenue rose 106% to $96.2 billion and Nvidia projected roughly 70% growth next fiscal year—but Warsh’s hawkish comments pushed yields higher and prompted investors to take profits after the stock’s 8.7% one-day rally.

MRVL (P/E: 74.7) Marvell was the largest SOXL-impact drag, plunging 10.28% despite beating quarterly expectations and raising its longer-term forecasts. Marvell now expects roughly $12 billion of fiscal 2027 revenue and $18 billion in fiscal 2028, but management said substantial revenue from its expanded Google custom-chip deal will not arrive until fiscal 2029 and beyond. That timing disappointed investors who had already priced significant Google-related growth into the stock. At least eight brokerages nevertheless raised their price targets following the report.

No News to Mention: MU, STM, NXPI, RMBS, ASX, NVMI, ARM, MTSI, ON, AVGO, ASML, CRDO, MCHP, ENTG, TSM, ALAB, TXN, ADI, INTC, MPWR, TER, KLAC, AMD, AMAT.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	3.83%	0.03%	0.10%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	-0.36%	-0.01%	-0.03%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	-2.33%	-0.01%	-0.04%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-0.27%	-0.02%	-0.07%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	-3.82%	-0.02%	-0.07%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	-1.01%	-0.03%	-0.09%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	-5.87%	-0.03%	-0.09%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	-2.88%	-0.04%	-0.11%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	-5.89%	-0.04%	-0.11%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	-6.33%	-0.04%	-0.13%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	-4.29%	-0.04%	-0.13%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	-2.93%	-0.05%	-0.14%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	-0.74%	-0.05%	-0.16%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	-2.24%	-0.06%	-0.17%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	-3.12%	-0.06%	-0.19%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	-3.39%	-0.07%	-0.22%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	-7.15%	-0.09%	-0.26%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	-2.26%	-0.10%	-0.31%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	-4.81%	-0.11%	-0.33%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	-2.96%	-0.11%	-0.34%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	-3.40%	-0.14%	-0.41%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	-2.85%	-0.14%	-0.42%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	-4.18%	-0.14%	-0.43%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	-4.59%	-0.14%	-0.43%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	-4.48%	-0.19%	-0.57%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	-2.33%	-0.19%	-0.58%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	-4.29%	-0.20%	-0.61%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	-5.24%	-0.23%	-0.69%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	-4.57%	-0.41%	-1.22%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	-10.28%	-0.55%	-1.65%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	-3.31%	-9.93%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-3.20%	-3.20%	-9.60%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-9.48%	N/A	-9.48%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.20%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.56%
SOXL	16.75%

CBOE Volatility Index: 14

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: There's also news of massive earnings from a Chinese memory company created specifically to use stolen technology from other memory companies (from what I could tell they don't even have their own labs), who knew stealing was so profitable?

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors rallied after Nvidia delivered another major earnings beat and, unusually, gave a long-term growth outlook that eased concerns about an AI spending slowdown. Nvidia reported $96.2 billion of revenue, up 106% year over year, versus expectations near $92 billion, while Data Center revenue reached $89.0 billion. More importantly, Nvidia projected roughly 70% revenue growth next fiscal year and guided Q3 revenue to $108 billion despite assuming no China Data Center compute revenue. The results sparked a broad AI-chip rally.

NVDA (P/E: 29.4) Nvidia led SOXL impact, gaining 8.74%. Q2 GAAP EPS reached $2.46, up 128% year over year, while revenue rose 106% to $96.2 billion. Nvidia said Rubin is now in full production and forecast $108 billion of Q3 revenue. The new quarter lifts trailing GAAP EPS to roughly $7.91, meaning Nvidia now trades around 29x trailing earnings despite revenue still more than doubling year over year. At least 16 brokerages raised their price targets following the report.

AVGO (P/E: 61.9) Broadcom gained 4.49% as Nvidia's results reinforced expectations that hyperscalers will continue aggressively expanding AI infrastructure. Broadcom is one of the largest beneficiaries outside Nvidia through custom AI accelerators and networking silicon, and the stronger spending outlook helped reverse some of the recent concern surrounding competition from Marvell. No new material Broadcom-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel gained 4.36% as Nvidia's results lifted the broader semiconductor complex and strengthened expectations for continued growth in AI-server infrastructure. Reuters specifically identified Intel among the major chip stocks participating in the Nvidia-driven rally. No new material Intel-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

MU (P/E: 21.2) Micron slipped 0.32% despite Nvidia's strong AI outlook. Nvidia's continued rapid Data Center growth remains fundamentally supportive of HBM and advanced DRAM demand, but Micron lagged after its strong August rebound. No new material Micron-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

AMD (P/E: 121.5) AMD fell 0.89% despite the broader AI-semiconductor rally. Nvidia's results demonstrated continued explosive accelerator demand, but its unusually bullish long-term forecast also reinforced Nvidia's dominant competitive position. No new material AMD-specific announcement was found since Wednesday's close.

MRVL (P/E: 82.6) Marvell fell 1.49% during regular trading ahead of earnings. After the close, Marvell reported $2.74 billion of Q2 revenue, up 37% and above the $2.71 billion consensus, with adjusted EPS of $0.94 versus $0.92 expected. It guided Q3 revenue to $3.15 billion versus $3.03 billion expected and EPS to $1.10 versus $1.07 expected, citing strong AI custom-silicon and networking demand. Shares nevertheless initially slipped more than 1% after hours, suggesting expectations were already extremely high following the recent Google deal.

No News to Mention: CRDO, TSM, ALAB, LRCX, TER, TXN, ASX, MCHP, NXPI, ON, ADI, AMAT, ENTG, STM, MPWR, QCOM, MTSI, ARM, NVMI, RMBS, SWKS, UMC, KLAC, ASML.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
NVDA	Nvidia	8.87%	8.74%	0.78%	2.33%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.11%	4.49%	0.32%	0.96%
INTC	Intel	4.97%	4.36%	0.22%	0.65%
CRDO	Credo	2.08%	6.07%	0.13%	0.38%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	2.32%	0.11%	0.32%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.26%	4.75%	0.11%	0.32%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.39%	1.82%	0.08%	0.24%
TER	Teradyne	3.14%	2.47%	0.08%	0.23%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.83%	1.82%	0.07%	0.21%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	4.37%	0.05%	0.16%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.19%	1.94%	0.04%	0.13%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.10%	1.21%	0.04%	0.11%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.59%	2.16%	0.03%	0.10%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	0.73%	0.03%	0.09%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.76%	0.54%	0.03%	0.08%
ENTG	Entegris	1.20%	2.00%	0.02%	0.07%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	3.36%	0.02%	0.07%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.43%	0.55%	0.02%	0.06%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.91%	0.65%	0.02%	0.06%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	1.65%	0.02%	0.05%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.70%	1.65%	0.01%	0.03%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	1.25%	0.01%	0.02%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	1.20%	0.01%	0.02%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	1.11%	0.01%	0.02%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.88%	0.13%	0.00%	0.00%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	-0.03%	0.00%	0.00%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.51%	-0.61%	-0.02%	-0.05%
MU	Micron	8.64%	-0.32%	-0.03%	-0.08%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.33%	-0.89%	-0.07%	-0.22%
MRVL	Marvell	5.34%	-1.49%	-0.08%	-0.24%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	2.04%	6.12%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.95%	1.95%	5.84%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	5.59%	N/A	5.59%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.34%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.04%
SOXL	13.26%

CBOE Volatility Index: 14

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: nice

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors finished slightly higher as investors waited for Nvidia’s earnings after the close, with SOXX gaining 0.20% despite Nvidia itself falling 1.68%. July inflation came in a little hotter than expected at 3.7% year over year, keeping interest-rate concerns elevated, but strength in Marvell, Qualcomm and several AI-connectivity names offset the weakness in Nvidia. Nvidia’s report remains the immediate sector catalyst, with consensus around $92.3 billion of revenue and $2.09 EPS.

MRVL (P/E: 83.9) Marvell led SOXL impact, gaining 1.88% ahead of its fiscal Q2 earnings report Thursday. Wall Street expects roughly $2.71 billion of revenue and $0.93 adjusted EPS, with investors focused heavily on how management incorporates the recently expanded Google custom-silicon agreement into its longer-term outlook. The Google arrangement could represent as much as $120 billion of cumulative custom-product purchases through fiscal 2033 if all warrant milestones are reached.

QCOM (P/E: 19.0) Qualcomm gained 1.99% after previewing its next-generation Oryon mobile CPU, which the company says will be the first mobile CPU to reach 5 GHz. Qualcomm also introduced its new FlexCache architecture, designed to let heterogeneous CPU cores share a dynamically allocated cache pool to improve performance in gaming, multitasking and agentic-AI workloads.

ALAB (P/E: 140.9) No new material Astera Labs-specific announcement was found since Tuesday’s close. Astera gained 2.58% and ranked third by SOXL impact as AI-connectivity stocks generally outperformed ahead of Nvidia’s earnings. Its trailing valuation remains extremely high despite rapidly growing revenue and earnings.

MU (P/E: 21.3) Micron gained 0.60% and announced a restructuring of its senior leadership team. Manish Bhatia was promoted to President and COO, taking responsibility for global operations and business units, while Scott DeBoer became President and Chief Technology and Products Officer, overseeing Micron’s memory roadmap and research efforts. Micron explicitly tied the changes to rising AI demand for higher-performance and more specialized memory.

TER (P/E: 49.8) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday’s close. Teradyne fell 0.96% and was tied with Broadcom as the second-largest negative SOXL-impact name. The company continues to benefit fundamentally from AI-driven semiconductor test demand, but shares remain volatile after their large year-to-date run.

AVGO (P/E: 59.2) Broadcom fell 0.40% and remained under pressure from concerns that Google is diversifying a larger portion of its custom-AI silicon work toward Marvell. Broadcom still has a long-term TPU and networking relationship with Google, but Marvell’s newly expanded agreement has increased investor focus on potential share shifts within Google’s AI-chip supply chain.

NVDA (P/E: 32.1) Nvidia was the largest SOXL-impact drag, falling 1.68% immediately ahead of its earnings report after the close. Wall Street expects roughly $92.3 billion of revenue and $2.09 EPS, while investors are focused on Rubin demand, margins, hyperscaler spending and whether Nvidia can again clear an unusually high expectations bar. Options pricing implies roughly a $280 billion post-earnings swing in market capitalization.

No News to Mention: INTC, ENTG, ARM, AMD, MTSI, TXN, ON, MCHP, KLAC, SWKS, ASX, TSM, STM, RMBS, ASML, CRDO, MPWR, NVMI, AMAT, NXPI, ADI, UMC, LRCX.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MRVL	Marvell	5.25%	1.88%	0.10%	0.30%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.86%	1.99%	0.06%	0.17%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.20%	2.58%	0.06%	0.17%
MU	Micron	8.60%	0.60%	0.05%	0.16%
INTC	Intel	4.94%	0.70%	0.03%	0.10%
ENTG	Entegris	1.17%	2.61%	0.03%	0.09%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.67%	3.85%	0.03%	0.08%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.31%	0.30%	0.03%	0.08%
MTSI	MACOM	1.02%	2.27%	0.02%	0.07%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.81%	0.60%	0.02%	0.07%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.57%	0.83%	0.01%	0.04%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.18%	0.59%	0.01%	0.04%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.27%	0.19%	0.01%	0.02%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.55%	1.34%	0.01%	0.02%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	0.43%	0.01%	0.02%
TSM	TSMC	4.64%	0.06%	0.00%	0.01%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.65%	0.30%	0.00%	0.01%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	0.09%	0.00%	0.00%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.52%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
CRDO	Credo	2.09%	-0.08%	0.00%	0.00%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.44%	-0.06%	0.00%	-0.01%
NVMI	Nova	0.65%	-0.38%	0.00%	-0.01%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.78%	-0.10%	0.00%	-0.01%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.13%	-0.73%	-0.02%	-0.07%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.04%	-0.60%	-0.02%	-0.07%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.91%	-2.83%	-0.03%	-0.08%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.43%	-0.60%	-0.03%	-0.08%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.15%	-0.40%	-0.03%	-0.09%
TER	Teradyne	3.17%	-0.96%	-0.03%	-0.09%
NVDA	Nvidia	9.04%	-1.68%	-0.15%	-0.46%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.85%	N/A	0.16%	0.47%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	0.20%	0.20%	0.59%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	0.61%	N/A	0.61%

Other Stats

Decay Today: +0.01%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	2.64%
SOXL	14.96%

CBOE Volatility Index: 15

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Posting this just before Nnidia earnings so probably just go read those. They are more important and detailed than anything I could write. Personally I am interested to see if there are any updates on Vera-Rubin and Robotics. I might add a comment here on the earnings later.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors rebounded as falling oil prices and Treasury yields eased some of the macro pressure that drove Monday’s selloff. The recovery was concentrated in AI-related names ahead of Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday, with AMD receiving a major analyst upgrade and Marvell rallying ahead of its own earnings Thursday. Nvidia’s results remain the key near-term test for the sector, with Wall Street expecting roughly $92 billion of quarterly revenue.

AMD (P/E: 122.6) AMD led SOXL impact, gaining 4.91% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to Strong Buy from Outperform and raised its price target to $641 from $565. Analyst Simon Leopold expects the server-CPU market to grow at a 44% annual rate through 2030 as agentic AI increases the need for CPUs to coordinate accelerators and manage AI workloads, and expects AMD to overtake Intel in server CPUs in 2027.

MRVL (P/E: 83.4) Marvell gained 4.84% ahead of Thursday’s earnings report as analysts became more bullish following its expanded Google custom-silicon partnership. Rosenblatt raised its price target to $300 from $240, while investors are looking for evidence that AI networking and custom-chip demand can support another increase in Marvell’s full-year outlook. Consensus expects roughly $2.71 billion of quarterly revenue, up about 35% year over year.

MU (P/E: 21.1) Micron gained 2.48%, rebounding from Monday’s sharp decline as AI-memory names recovered alongside the broader semiconductor sector. Memory pricing remains unusually strong, while Micron’s trailing valuation remains considerably lower than most major AI semiconductor names despite its rapid earnings growth. No new material Micron-specific announcement was found since Monday’s close.

NVDA (P/E: 32.6) Nvidia gained 2.19% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings. Consensus expects roughly $92.2 billion of revenue, nearly double the prior-year quarter, with investors focused on Rubin demand, gross margins and whether hyperscaler AI spending remains strong. Options imply roughly a 5.4% move after the report, equivalent to about $280 billion of market value.

MCHP (P/E: 108.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday’s close. Microchip fell 0.96% and was the third-largest negative SOXL-impact name despite the broader semiconductor rebound. Its unusually high trailing P/E reflects depressed trailing GAAP earnings; its forward P/E is much lower.

AVGO (P/E: 59.4) Broadcom fell 0.56% and continued to lag several AI peers following Google’s decision to expand its custom-chip relationship with Marvell. That agreement has raised concerns that Marvell could capture a larger portion of Google’s future custom-AI silicon spending, although Broadcom remains deeply involved in Google’s TPU ecosystem.

AMAT (P/E: 41.4) No new material Applied Materials-specific announcement was found since Monday’s close. Applied Materials fell 0.86% and was the largest negative SOXL-impact name, continuing to lag after its recent earnings report despite reporting 25% year-over-year revenue growth and issuing above-consensus guidance.

No News to Mention: TSM, LRCX, MPWR, KLAC, ALAB, CRDO, QCOM, MTSI, NXPI, ASX, ADI, UMC, RMBS, TXN, TER, ON, INTC, NVMI, ARM, ASML, ENTG, STM, SWKS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.01%	4.91%	0.39%	1.18%
MRVL	Marvell	5.13%	4.84%	0.25%	0.74%
MU	Micron	8.55%	2.48%	0.21%	0.64%
NVDA	Nvidia	9.13%	2.19%	0.20%	0.60%
TSM	TSMC	4.54%	1.77%	0.08%	0.24%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.28%	1.45%	0.06%	0.19%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.40%	1.49%	0.05%	0.15%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.32%	0.97%	0.04%	0.13%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.23%	1.84%	0.04%	0.12%
CRDO	Credo	2.14%	1.75%	0.04%	0.11%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.86%	1.28%	0.04%	0.11%
MTSI	MACOM	1.03%	3.43%	0.04%	0.11%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.12%	1.04%	0.03%	0.10%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.19%	2.35%	0.03%	0.08%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.00%	0.67%	0.03%	0.08%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.83%	2.94%	0.02%	0.07%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	3.20%	0.02%	0.05%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.88%	0.43%	0.02%	0.05%
TER	Teradyne	3.26%	0.42%	0.01%	0.04%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.64%	0.81%	0.01%	0.04%
INTC	Intel	5.19%	0.25%	0.01%	0.04%
NVMI	Nova	0.67%	1.52%	0.01%	0.03%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.69%	1.16%	0.01%	0.02%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.50%	0.23%	0.01%	0.02%
ENTG	Entegris	1.21%	0.45%	0.01%	0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.66%	0.24%	0.00%	0.00%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.57%	-1.73%	-0.01%	-0.03%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.26%	-0.96%	-0.02%	-0.06%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.19%	-0.56%	-0.04%	-0.12%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.88%	-0.86%	-0.04%	-0.13%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	1.54%	4.62%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.56%	1.56%	4.67%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	4.23%	N/A	4.23%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.49%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.58%
SOXL	17.88%

CBOE Volatility Index: 15

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: There's been a couple breakthroughs in AI robotics in the past week by Generalist AI and Skild worth mentioning (I'll be conflating the two because frankly they seem very similar). This has been a struggle so far. The previous best method for controlling an AI robot was an inverse dynamics model Nvidia came up with where you AI generate a video of the bot completing the task, then train the bot to work out the motor controls from the video. The benefit being that we already have good video models that are prompted from language, and we can make plenty of training data to get motor controls from video easily just by recording tons of videos of the robot executing various preset movements. The breakthrough though, was to prompt the bot with video of a human executing the task. Suddenly with this approach it can generalize a lot better and execute tasks that weren't in it's training data with greater reliability. I'm interested to see what Nvidia can do with this knowledge since it seems like it could fit into their inverse dynamics model.

The goal should be Humanoid robots controlled by AGI. If we can build that no one will ever have to work again.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

There's currently no explanation for why the area you land in is the only unclaimed area on the planet, and it seems like there's an easy way to do it. Alternatively you could just put some demolisher remains near spawn and we could assume the last one just died, but that would be less fun.

Main story: Semiconductors fell as investors reduced AI exposure ahead of Nvidia’s earnings Wednesday and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday. Nvidia is expected to report more than $92 billion of quarterly revenue, making the report a major test of whether hyperscaler AI spending remains strong enough to justify current valuations. Additional U.S. sanctions against Iran increased geopolitical uncertainty, while a sharp selloff in Samsung and other Asian memory stocks spilled into Micron and the broader chip sector.

UMC (P/E: 18.4) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday’s close. United Microelectronics gained 3.90% and was the only meaningful positive SOXL-impact name, continuing to benefit from enthusiasm surrounding its plans to expand Singapore and Taiwan manufacturing capacity for AI-related demand.

SWKS (P/E: 34.6) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday’s close. Skyworks fell just 0.42%, substantially outperforming the semiconductor index and ranking second by SOXL impact.

ASX (P/E: 42.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday’s close. ASE Technology declined 0.77% but remained the third-best SOXL-impact name because of its relatively small index weight. Its latest operating update showed July revenue up sharply year over year as advanced-packaging demand remained strong.

NVDA (P/E: 31.9) Nvidia fell 2.91% ahead of Wednesday’s earnings report, which has become a major test of the AI infrastructure trade. Wall Street expects quarterly revenue above $92 billion, while investors are looking for another significant beat and strong guidance demonstrating that hyperscaler spending remains intact. Nvidia is now on its longest losing streak since 2022.

AMD (P/E: 116.5) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday’s close. AMD fell 3.49% and was the second-largest SOXL-impact drag as investors reduced exposure to high-beta AI semiconductor stocks ahead of Nvidia’s results.

MU (P/E: 20.6) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag, falling 5.83% as memory stocks sold off globally. Samsung plunged roughly 9% after its shareholder-return plan disappointed investors, while reports that China’s YMTC is preparing an IPO renewed concerns about expanding Chinese memory competition. The selloff occurred despite continued strong underlying AI-memory demand.

No News to Mention: ARM, STM, ADI, RMBS, NVMI, ASML, MTSI, QCOM, MCHP, NXPI, ENTG, ON, LRCX, KLAC, ALAB, CRDO, TXN, MPWR, AMAT, TSM, TER, INTC, MRVL, AVGO.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.83%	3.90%	0.03%	0.10%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.57%	-0.42%	0.00%	-0.01%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.19%	-0.77%	-0.01%	-0.03%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.69%	-1.87%	-0.01%	-0.04%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.66%	-2.39%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.00%	-0.51%	-0.02%	-0.06%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	-4.57%	-0.02%	-0.07%
NVMI	Nova	0.67%	-3.78%	-0.03%	-0.08%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.50%	-1.34%	-0.03%	-0.10%
MTSI	MACOM	1.03%	-3.44%	-0.04%	-0.11%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.86%	-1.38%	-0.04%	-0.12%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.26%	-1.87%	-0.04%	-0.13%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.12%	-1.38%	-0.04%	-0.13%
ENTG	Entegris	1.21%	-3.77%	-0.05%	-0.14%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.64%	-3.07%	-0.05%	-0.15%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.28%	-1.22%	-0.05%	-0.16%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.32%	-1.32%	-0.06%	-0.17%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.23%	-2.61%	-0.06%	-0.17%
CRDO	Credo	2.14%	-3.45%	-0.07%	-0.22%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.88%	-2.05%	-0.08%	-0.24%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.40%	-2.37%	-0.08%	-0.24%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.88%	-1.65%	-0.08%	-0.24%
TSM	TSMC	4.54%	-2.07%	-0.09%	-0.28%
TER	Teradyne	3.26%	-2.88%	-0.09%	-0.28%
INTC	Intel	5.19%	-3.12%	-0.16%	-0.49%
MRVL	Marvell	5.13%	-3.27%	-0.17%	-0.50%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.19%	-2.63%	-0.19%	-0.57%
NVDA	Nvidia	9.13%	-2.91%	-0.27%	-0.80%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.01%	-3.49%	-0.28%	-0.84%
MU	Micron	8.55%	-5.83%	-0.50%	-1.50%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	-2.60%	-7.80%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-2.67%	-2.67%	-8.00%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-7.80%	N/A	-7.80%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.01%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.57%
SOXL	20.51%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: NVDA's market cap should be 10 Trillion dollars.

Sorry I missed on friday I was busy

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors finished modestly higher despite another weak day for the broader market as rising Treasury yields and oil prices continued pressuring growth stocks. Strength was concentrated in memory and custom AI silicon: Micron rallied after announcing a $10 billion Boise research lab aimed at next-generation memory and computing, while Marvell extended its surge following the Google custom-chip agreement. Those gains offset weakness across analog, automotive and several equipment names.

MU (P/E: 21.2) Micron led SOXL impact after announcing plans to invest $10 billion over the next decade in a new Boise research laboratory focused on advanced memory technologies and next-generation computing systems. The investment reinforces Micron’s effort to capitalize on sustained AI-driven demand for DRAM and HBM while expanding long-term U.S. research capacity.

MRVL (P/E: 86.3) Marvell gained another 5.79% as investors continued repricing the company following its expanded Google partnership. Google can earn warrants for nearly 59 million Marvell shares, while associated custom-silicon programs could generate as much as $120 billion of revenue through fiscal 2033. Reuters Breakingviews estimated the agreement could lift Marvell’s projected 2032 revenue by more than 60%.

AMD (P/E: 120.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday’s close. AMD gained 0.65% and ranked third by SOXL impact as AI-related semiconductor stocks selectively recovered despite continued pressure from elevated Treasury yields.

NVDA (P/E: 32.9) Nvidia denied a report that it plans to launch a China-specific language-processing chip based on technology licensed from Groq. Nvidia said it has no China-specific LPU on its roadmap. Shares finished slightly lower as investors remained focused on China restrictions and next week’s earnings report.

INTC (P/E: N/A) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday’s close. Intel declined 0.72% and was the third-largest negative SOXL contributor. Its trailing GAAP EPS remains negative.

ON (P/E: 48.8) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday’s close. Onsemi fell 2.44% and was the second-largest negative SOXL-impact name as analog, automotive and industrial semiconductor stocks lagged the memory and AI-custom-silicon rebound.

NXPI (P/E: 44.4) NXP fell 1.35% and was the largest negative SOXL-impact name. The company introduced its new MCX A5 microcontroller family for secure industrial-edge applications, but the product announcement was not large enough to offset continued weakness in automotive and industrial semiconductor names.

No News to Mention: LRCX, TSM, AVGO, TER, ASX, MPWR, ALAB, RMBS, AMAT, ARM, ENTG, ASML, NVMI, SWKS, UMC, STM, MTSI, QCOM, TXN, CRDO, ADI, KLAC, MCHP.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	8.55%	3.97%	0.34%	1.02%
MRVL	Marvell	5.13%	5.79%	0.30%	0.89%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.01%	0.65%	0.05%	0.16%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.28%	1.09%	0.05%	0.14%
TSM	TSMC	4.54%	0.97%	0.04%	0.13%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.19%	0.43%	0.03%	0.09%
TER	Teradyne	3.26%	0.92%	0.03%	0.09%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.19%	2.41%	0.03%	0.09%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.40%	0.80%	0.03%	0.08%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.23%	0.52%	0.01%	0.03%
RMBS	Rambus	0.54%	1.43%	0.01%	0.02%
AMAT	Applied Materials	4.88%	0.12%	0.01%	0.02%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.69%	0.55%	0.00%	0.01%
ENTG	Entegris	1.21%	0.24%	0.00%	0.01%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.50%	-0.08%	0.00%	-0.01%
NVMI	Nova	0.67%	-0.38%	0.00%	-0.01%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.57%	-0.79%	0.00%	-0.01%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.83%	-0.61%	-0.01%	-0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.66%	-0.96%	-0.01%	-0.02%
MTSI	MACOM	1.03%	-1.41%	-0.01%	-0.04%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.86%	-0.72%	-0.02%	-0.06%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.88%	-0.69%	-0.03%	-0.08%
NVDA	Nvidia	9.13%	-0.33%	-0.03%	-0.09%
CRDO	Credo	2.14%	-1.48%	-0.03%	-0.09%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.00%	-0.81%	-0.03%	-0.10%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.32%	-0.75%	-0.03%	-0.10%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.26%	-1.65%	-0.04%	-0.11%
INTC	Intel	5.19%	-0.72%	-0.04%	-0.11%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.64%	-2.44%	-0.04%	-0.12%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.12%	-1.35%	-0.04%	-0.13%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	0.56%	1.69%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	0.52%	0.52%	1.55%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	1.23%	N/A	1.23%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.32%

	Dollar Volume Share
SOXX	3.28%
SOXL	19.04%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: It's not much but we take what we can get in these trying times.

This is not financial advice.

SOXL to $500 EOY