u/Winter_Ad6784

Main story: Semiconductors finished modestly lower as Alphabet’s increased 2026 capital-spending forecast supported memory and chip-equipment stocks but also renewed broader concerns about the escalating cost of the AI buildout. Micron led the gainers as Alphabet raised expected capital expenditures to $195–$205 billion, while STMicroelectronics collapsed after disappointing profit and guidance. AMD also unveiled its next-generation Helios AI server, and Intel delivered a major earnings beat after the closing bell.

MU (P/E: 22.2) Micron led SOXL impact after Alphabet raised its capital-spending forecast, reinforcing expectations for continued strong demand for high-bandwidth memory and conventional server memory. Tesla also highlighted the global memory shortage and thanked Micron for providing a significant supply allocation under favorable terms.

KLAC (P/E: 65.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. KLA gained 1.88% as Alphabet’s higher AI capital-spending forecast supported suppliers of the inspection and process-control equipment required for advanced-chip capacity expansion.

AMAT (P/E: 56.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. Applied Materials gained 1.60% as increased hyperscaler AI spending supported expectations for continued investment in semiconductor-manufacturing capacity.

TXN (P/E: 43.1) Texas Instruments reported second-quarter revenue of $5.46 billion, up 23% year over year, with earnings of $2.14 per share. Analog revenue increased 26%, while Embedded Processing revenue rose 16%, but the shares declined as investors weighed the results and outlook against elevated expectations for a broader industrial recovery.

INTC (P/E: N/A, negative trailing EPS) Intel declined during regular trading ahead of earnings but surged after hours after reporting adjusted earnings of $0.42 per share on $16.1 billion in revenue, nearly doubling the consensus earnings estimate. Data-center revenue rose sharply as demand for CPUs used alongside AI accelerators strengthened, and Intel issued third-quarter guidance above expectations.

STM (P/E: 433.2) STMicroelectronics plunged 18.66% after second-quarter core profit missed expectations and its third-quarter revenue forecast came in slightly below consensus. Management cited improving demand and AI data-center opportunities, but investors remained concerned about weak automotive and industrial recovery and insufficient gross-margin improvement.

AMD (P/E: 176.5) AMD unveiled its second-generation Helios rack-scale AI server, featuring MI455X accelerators and Venice CPUs. The system is now in production and is expected to begin shipping by the end of the third quarter, with OpenAI planning large-scale deployments. AMD nevertheless fell 2.29% as investors questioned how quickly the platform can challenge Nvidia and generate material revenue.

No News to Mention: CRDO, TER, LRCX, NVMI, ASML, MTSI, ARM, MPWR, RMBS, UMC, ENTG, NXPI, SWKS, ALAB, ASX, MRVL, ON, TSM, ADI, QCOM, AVGO, MCHP, NVDA.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	8.33%	3.20%	0.27%	0.80%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.71%	1.88%	0.09%	0.27%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.22%	1.60%	0.08%	0.25%
CRDO	Credo	1.92%	3.61%	0.07%	0.21%
TER	Teradyne	3.01%	1.16%	0.03%	0.10%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.21%	0.15%	0.01%	0.02%
NVMI	Nova	0.75%	0.21%	0.00%	0.00%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.42%	0.06%	0.00%	0.00%
MTSI	MACOM	1.01%	0.07%	0.00%	0.00%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.75%	-0.13%	0.00%	0.00%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.39%	-0.09%	0.00%	-0.01%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	-0.62%	0.00%	-0.01%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.92%	-1.90%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ENTG	Entegris	1.10%	-1.59%	-0.02%	-0.05%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.54%	-0.54%	-0.02%	-0.06%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.49%	-4.26%	-0.02%	-0.06%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.32%	-1.19%	-0.03%	-0.08%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	-2.52%	-0.03%	-0.09%
MRVL	Marvell	4.22%	-0.79%	-0.03%	-0.10%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.84%	-2.38%	-0.04%	-0.13%
TSM	TSMC	4.39%	-1.35%	-0.06%	-0.18%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.85%	-1.69%	-0.07%	-0.20%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.88%	-2.57%	-0.07%	-0.22%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.20%	-1.09%	-0.08%	-0.24%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.30%	-4.32%	-0.10%	-0.30%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.97%	-3.13%	-0.12%	-0.37%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.18%	-1.56%	-0.13%	-0.38%
INTC	Intel	5.54%	-2.33%	-0.13%	-0.39%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.80%	-18.66%	-0.15%	-0.45%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.78%	-2.29%	-0.20%	-0.60%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.88%	N/A	-0.77%	-2.32%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-0.77%	-0.77%	-2.31%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-2.23%	N/A	-2.23%

Other Stats

Decay Today: +0.07%

CBOE Volatility Index: 19

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Sorry the numbers are still a little off I still need to update my spreadsheet to a close to close comparison instead of a close-live comparison. Volatility being up to 19 isn't good. To be clear it's not bad, it's just not good. Decay is positive though so can't complain.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors extended their rebound as a major AMD–Anthropic agreement reinforced expectations that AI infrastructure spending will continue expanding beyond Nvidia’s ecosystem. Investors also positioned for Alphabet’s earnings and its expected $180–$190 billion 2026 capital-spending plan, while awaiting Texas Instruments and Intel results for evidence about demand outside AI accelerators. SOXX gained 0.51%, although memory and semiconductor-equipment stocks lagged.

AVGO (P/E: 64.4) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday noon. Broadcom led SOXL impact as optimism around continued hyperscaler AI spending supported custom accelerators and data-center networking suppliers.

NVDA (P/E: 31.1) Nvidia announced a robotics collaboration with Google and separately open-sourced a GPU-accelerated medical-physics simulation framework. Shares gained 2.30% as investors anticipated another substantial increase in Alphabet’s AI infrastructure spending.

AMD (P/E: 181.8) AMD announced that Anthropic will purchase up to two gigawatts of Instinct MI450-based computing capacity, beginning in 2027. The deal could generate tens of billions of dollars in server sales, while AMD agreed to invest as much as $5 billion in Anthropic as performance milestones are reached.

TXN (P/E: 35.4) Texas Instruments traded higher ahead of its second-quarter earnings call after today’s close. Investors are focused on whether industrial and automotive demand is recovering and whether its smaller data-center business is benefiting from AI infrastructure spending.

MU (P/E: 20.9) Micron declined 1.17%, giving back part of Tuesday’s 12% rally. The company continues to benefit from AI-driven memory demand, but investors weighed its extraordinary year-to-date gains, elevated expectations and uncertainty about how long rapid memory-price increases can continue.

AMAT (P/E: 53.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday noon. Applied Materials fell 1.88% and was the second-largest SOXL-impact drag as semiconductor-equipment stocks missed the broader AI-chip rally.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel was the largest SOXL-impact drag ahead of Thursday’s earnings report. Analysts expect strong server-CPU demand to contrast with a sluggish PC market, while Intel’s foundry spending and associated margin pressure remain major areas of concern.

No News to Mention: ALAB, NXPI, MRVL, MCHP, ADI, CRDO, MPWR, QCOM, ON, ASX, STM, UMC, NVMI, SWKS, ASML, MTSI, RMBS, ARM, ENTG, LRCX, TSM, TER, KLAC.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AVGO	Broadcom	7.20%	2.67%	0.19%	0.58%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.18%	2.30%	0.19%	0.56%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.78%	1.45%	0.13%	0.38%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.32%	3.47%	0.08%	0.24%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.54%	2.07%	0.07%	0.22%
MRVL	Marvell	4.22%	1.46%	0.06%	0.18%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.30%	1.97%	0.05%	0.14%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.85%	1.02%	0.04%	0.12%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.97%	0.99%	0.04%	0.12%
CRDO	Credo	1.92%	1.97%	0.04%	0.11%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.39%	1.10%	0.04%	0.11%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.88%	1.23%	0.04%	0.11%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.84%	1.39%	0.03%	0.08%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.25%	1.20%	0.01%	0.04%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.80%	0.49%	0.00%	0.01%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.92%	0.42%	0.00%	0.01%
NVMI	Nova	0.75%	0.29%	0.00%	0.01%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.49%	0.33%	0.00%	0.00%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.42%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
MTSI	MACOM	1.01%	-0.14%	0.00%	0.00%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	-1.85%	-0.01%	-0.03%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.75%	-2.18%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ENTG	Entegris	1.10%	-1.92%	-0.02%	-0.06%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.21%	-0.84%	-0.04%	-0.11%
TSM	TSMC	4.39%	-0.82%	-0.04%	-0.11%
TER	Teradyne	3.01%	-1.22%	-0.04%	-0.11%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.71%	-1.32%	-0.06%	-0.19%
MU	Micron	8.33%	-1.17%	-0.10%	-0.29%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.22%	-1.88%	-0.10%	-0.30%
INTC	Intel	5.54%	-2.68%	-0.15%	-0.45%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.88%	N/A	0.45%	1.34%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	0.51%	0.51%	1.54%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	1.45%	N/A	1.45%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.09%

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: If google doesn't substantially cut AI Capex today flaky needs to be banned for market manipulation if he hasn't been already.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors surged 5.5% for a second consecutive gain as investors rushed back into AI and memory stocks ahead of earnings from Alphabet, Texas Instruments and Intel. The rally was largely driven by expectations that Big Tech will confirm continued heavy AI infrastructure spending, combined with bargain buying after the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index entered a bear market last week. Chip stocks overcame rising oil prices, Treasury yields and continued Middle East tensions.

MU (P/E: 21.2) Micron led SOXL impact as memory stocks rallied on expectations that upcoming Big Tech earnings will demonstrate continued growth in AI infrastructure spending and high-bandwidth-memory demand. JPMorgan and UBS remained optimistic about rising AI compute requirements, while investors treated the recent memory-stock pullback as a buying opportunity.

AMD (P/E: 177.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. AMD rose 8.11% and produced the second-largest positive SOXL impact as investors returned to AI accelerators and other high-growth semiconductor stocks ahead of major technology earnings.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel rallied 8.64% ahead of Thursday’s earnings report despite reports that it is preparing additional layoffs within its Data Center Group. Intel said the restructuring is intended to create a more focused and efficient organization without changing its product commitments or roadmaps.

NVDA (P/E: 30.7) Nvidia increased its ownership of AI-infrastructure provider Nebius to 9.3%, expanding a position established through a previous $2 billion investment. The move reinforced confidence that Nvidia remains willing to invest directly across the broader AI infrastructure ecosystem.

NVMI (P/E: 59.6) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. Nova gained 4.60% but ranked as the third-smallest positive SOXL-impact name because of its limited index weight.

RMBS (P/E: 48.7) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. Rambus rose 4.90% alongside the broader memory rally but produced only a small SOXL contribution because of its 0.59% index weight.

SWKS (P/E: 23.9) No new material company-specific news was found since Monday noon. Skyworks gained 5.27% but was the smallest positive SOXL-impact name because it carried the lowest weight in the index.

No News to Mention: AMAT, TER, MRVL, TSM, KLAC, LRCX, AVGO, MPWR, ADI, CRDO, TXN, ASX, ON, ASML, MCHP, ALAB, NXPI, QCOM, ARM, ENTG, MTSI, STM, UMC.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	7.83%	12.17%	0.95%	2.86%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.57%	8.11%	0.70%	2.09%
INTC	Intel	5.38%	8.64%	0.46%	1.39%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.13%	7.39%	0.38%	1.14%
TER	Teradyne	2.84%	12.07%	0.34%	1.03%
MRVL	Marvell	4.18%	6.68%	0.28%	0.84%
TSM	TSMC	4.39%	5.51%	0.24%	0.73%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.75%	4.80%	0.23%	0.68%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.24%	4.97%	0.21%	0.63%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.46%	1.97%	0.17%	0.50%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.44%	2.21%	0.16%	0.49%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.44%	4.10%	0.14%	0.42%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.95%	2.78%	0.11%	0.33%
CRDO	Credo	1.92%	5.56%	0.11%	0.32%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.08%	2.55%	0.10%	0.31%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.22%	8.40%	0.10%	0.31%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.85%	5.03%	0.09%	0.28%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.46%	3.59%	0.09%	0.27%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.34%	3.56%	0.08%	0.25%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.36%	3.46%	0.08%	0.25%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.65%	2.23%	0.08%	0.24%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.98%	1.87%	0.06%	0.17%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.73%	7.46%	0.05%	0.16%
ENTG	Entegris	1.11%	4.77%	0.05%	0.16%
MTSI	MACOM	1.02%	4.90%	0.05%	0.15%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.80%	5.91%	0.05%	0.14%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.93%	4.24%	0.04%	0.12%
NVMI	Nova	0.75%	4.60%	0.03%	0.10%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	4.90%	0.03%	0.09%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.49%	5.27%	0.03%	0.08%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.87%	N/A	5.51%	16.52%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	5.45%	5.45%	16.34%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	15.84%	N/A	15.84%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -1.20%

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I plan on doing this at the end of trading for now on and will switch from pulling live numbers to just comparing yesterday's close to today's close. Currently it's still pulling the most recent live numbers.

I believe this is the beginning of a rally ahead of many good earnings calls. It's become clear that even if the market were a bubble, that won't be apparent from these earnings.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

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Main story: Investors bought the pullback ahead of major technology earnings, with chip-company profits expected to rise approximately 133% year over year and contribute 44% of the S&P 500’s second-quarter earnings growth. Memory, custom AI silicon, and data-center connectivity stocks led today’s recovery, although the sector remains volatile amid concerns about valuations and the durability of AI infrastructure spending.

MU (P/E: 20.2) Micron led SOXL impact after SK Hynix Chairman Chey Tae-won projected that memory demand could rise 60% in 2027. KeyBanc expects tight memory supplies through at least 2028 and continued increases in DRAM, NAND, and high-bandwidth-memory prices. Micron also benefited from bargain buying after falling roughly 30% from its June peak.

AMD (P/E: 170.6) AMD rallied after expanding its AI partnership with Microsoft. Microsoft plans to deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale supercomputing platform through Azure, broadening the companies’ collaboration across AMD’s CPUs, accelerators, networking products, and AI software.

MRVL (P/E: 112.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday noon. Marvell gained 6.51% and produced the third-largest positive SOXL impact as investors returned to custom-silicon and high-speed data-center networking stocks following last week’s steep decline.

INTC (P/E: N/A) Intel rose ahead of its quarterly results later this week. Its report is expected to be an important test of whether improving demand outside the highest-end AI accelerators can support the semiconductor rally, particularly after Intel shares gained more than 160% earlier this year.

NVDA (P/E: 30.7) Nvidia participated in the rebound but underperformed the broader semiconductor index. KeyBanc maintained Nvidia as a leading generative-AI company while warning about potential Vera Rubin ramp delays and increasing competition.

KLAC (P/E: 61.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday noon. KLA declined 0.52% and was the third-largest negative SOXL-impact name as semiconductor-equipment stocks missed the broader recovery.

LRCX (P/E: 58.6) No new material company-specific news was found since Friday noon. Lam Research fell 0.59% ahead of its July 29 earnings report and was tied among the larger negative SOXL contributors.

UMC (P/E: 34.3) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday noon. United Microelectronics fell 2.71% and was the largest negative SOXL-impact name, although its small index weight limited the damage.

No News to Mention: AVGO, TER, CRDO, MPWR, ALAB, NXPI, TSM, TXN, AMAT, ADI, MTSI, MCHP, ON, QCOM, RMBS, ARM, SWKS, NVMI, STM, ASML, ENTG, ASX.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	7.72%	5.50%	0.42%	1.27%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.49%	4.14%	0.35%	1.05%
MRVL	Marvell	4.07%	6.51%	0.26%	0.79%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.33%	3.11%	0.23%	0.68%
INTC	Intel	5.30%	4.16%	0.22%	0.66%
TER	Teradyne	2.76%	5.85%	0.16%	0.48%
CRDO	Credo	1.84%	7.88%	0.15%	0.44%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.42%	3.38%	0.12%	0.35%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.49%	1.32%	0.11%	0.34%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.33%	4.61%	0.11%	0.32%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.66%	2.36%	0.09%	0.26%
TSM	TSMC	4.37%	1.98%	0.09%	0.26%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.10%	1.81%	0.07%	0.22%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.20%	1.14%	0.06%	0.18%
ADI	Analog Devices	4.01%	1.16%	0.05%	0.14%
MTSI	MACOM	1.01%	4.44%	0.05%	0.14%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.36%	1.45%	0.03%	0.10%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.87%	1.24%	0.02%	0.07%
QCOM	Qualcomm	3.02%	0.65%	0.02%	0.06%
RMBS	Rambus	0.60%	3.18%	0.02%	0.06%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.73%	2.34%	0.02%	0.05%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.49%	1.40%	0.01%	0.02%
NVMI	Nova	0.76%	0.85%	0.01%	0.02%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.80%	0.81%	0.01%	0.02%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.49%	-0.21%	-0.01%	-0.02%
ENTG	Entegris	1.16%	-0.87%	-0.01%	-0.03%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.27%	-0.86%	-0.01%	-0.03%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.89%	-0.52%	-0.03%	-0.08%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.35%	-0.59%	-0.03%	-0.08%
UMC	United Microelectronics	0.98%	-2.71%	-0.03%	-0.08%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.87%	N/A	2.56%	7.67%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	2.45%	2.45%	7.34%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	6.92%	N/A	6.92%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.56%

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I don't have anything to say that I haven't already said but here's the upcoming earnings calls

Date	Company	Call time
Wed, Jul. 22	TXN — Texas Instruments	3:30 p.m. (Texas Instruments)
Thu, Jul. 23	STM — STMicroelectronics	2:30 a.m. (Wedbush Investor)
	INTC — Intel	4:00 p.m. (Intel)
Mon, Jul. 27	RMBS — Rambus	4:00 p.m. (Rambus Investor)
Tue, Jul. 28	NXPI — NXP Semiconductors	3:30 p.m. (NXP)
	KLAC — KLA	4:00 p.m. (KLA Corporation)
	TER — Teradyne	After market close; precise call time not yet verified. (Leverage Shares)
Wed, Jul. 29	LRCX — Lam Research	4:00 p.m. (Lam Research Investor Relations)
	QCOM — Qualcomm	After market close; conference call follows the release. (Qualcomm Investor Relations)
	ARM — Arm Holdings	4:00 p.m. (Arm Newsroom)
Tue, Aug. 4	AMD — Advanced Micro Devices	4:00 p.m. (Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.)
Thu, Aug. 13	AMAT — Applied Materials	Projected; time not yet announced. (Applied Materials)

There's a lot more for the first full week in August that haven't been schedule to a specific date/time yet.

Kimi came out and the site had to stop allowing new accounts to be made as they were running low on compute. This is sort of what I said would happen previously with new models but I seem to have been wrong more broadly as there doesn't seem to be a broader shortage of AI tokens yet, although I still think it's going to happen sometime this year.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors flat after recovering from a sharp early decline, with Micron and several networking and power-chip names offsetting continued weakness in semiconductor equipment. The sector remained under pressure from concerns that China’s new Kimi K3 model could deliver competitive AI performance with fewer advanced chips, raising questions about the return on massive AI infrastructure spending. Escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and rising oil prices also weighed on risk sentiment.

MU (P/E: 19.3) Micron led SOXL impact as investors bought the stock following its roughly 30% decline from its June peak. Analysts continued to argue that rising memory prices, limited supply, and strong AI demand support Micron’s earnings outlook, although concerns remain about future Chinese competition and whether AI capital spending has peaked.

MRVL (P/E: 60.2) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday noon. Marvell rebounded 2.41% after being one of the hardest-hit custom-silicon and AI-connectivity names during the week’s selloff.

MPWR (P/E: 94.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday noon. Monolithic Power Systems gained 2.36%, contributing the third-largest positive SOXL impact as investors selectively returned to AI power-management suppliers.

NVDA (P/E: 30.3) Nvidia remained under pressure as Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 model renewed concerns that increasingly efficient Chinese models could reduce the amount of expensive computing infrastructure needed for competitive AI performance. Nvidia declined modestly and was among the larger negative SOXL contributors.

TSM (P/E: 36.5) TSMC continued falling despite reporting record quarterly results on Thursday. Investors focused on its increased capital-spending plans, margin pressure and concerns that even strong current AI demand may not justify the sector’s elevated valuations.

KLAC (P/E: 61.3) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Thursday noon. KLA declined 1.71% as semiconductor-equipment stocks continued to underperform amid concerns about elevated valuations and the sustainability of customers’ capital spending.

AMAT (P/E: 51.3) Applied Materials was the largest SOXL-impact drag, falling 2.91% as investors continued reducing exposure to semiconductor-equipment companies following the sector’s major 2026 rally. The stock was specifically cited among the week’s prominent chip-sector decliners.

No News to Mention: TER, ENTG, ON, AVGO, ARM, RMBS, INTC, SWKS, STM, QCOM, MCHP, MTSI, ASML, CRDO, NVMI, NXPI, AMD, ASX, ADI, UMC, TXN, LRCX, ALAB.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	7.63%	4.66%	0.36%	1.07%
MRVL	Marvell	3.99%	2.41%	0.10%	0.29%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.34%	2.36%	0.08%	0.24%
TER	Teradyne	2.71%	1.81%	0.05%	0.15%
ENTG	Entegris	1.10%	3.58%	0.04%	0.12%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.85%	1.69%	0.03%	0.09%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.28%	0.37%	0.03%	0.08%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.71%	3.40%	0.02%	0.07%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	3.02%	0.02%	0.05%
INTC	Intel	5.31%	0.26%	0.01%	0.04%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.47%	2.43%	0.01%	0.03%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.80%	1.21%	0.01%	0.03%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.95%	0.22%	0.01%	0.02%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.35%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
MTSI	MACOM	1.03%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.50%	-0.08%	0.00%	-0.01%
CRDO	Credo	1.86%	-0.19%	0.00%	-0.01%
NVMI	Nova	0.77%	-0.72%	-0.01%	-0.02%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.66%	-0.25%	-0.01%	-0.03%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.43%	-0.15%	-0.01%	-0.04%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.29%	-1.32%	-0.02%	-0.05%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.99%	-0.58%	-0.02%	-0.07%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.01%	-2.87%	-0.03%	-0.09%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.53%	-0.59%	-0.05%	-0.15%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.14%	-1.24%	-0.05%	-0.15%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.38%	-1.30%	-0.06%	-0.17%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.42%	-2.80%	-0.07%	-0.20%
TSM	TSMC	4.42%	-1.68%	-0.07%	-0.22%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.96%	-1.71%	-0.08%	-0.25%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.41%	-2.91%	-0.16%	-0.47%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	0.12%	0.35%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	0.08%	0.08%	0.23%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	0.03%	N/A	0.03%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.20%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	4.94%	83.9M
SOXL	30.97%	135.5M

CBOE Volatility Index: 18

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Thanks for not sending me any death threats yet guys I appreciate it.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors extended their selloff despite TSMC reporting record earnings and raising its outlook. TSMC’s results confirmed that current AI-chip demand remains extremely strong, but its increased capital-spending forecast and slight margin pressure reinforced concerns about the cost of sustaining the AI buildout. Investors also continued taking profits in memory, custom-silicon, and networking stocks after their extraordinary 2026 rallies. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell roughly 3.5%.

SWKS (P/E: 23.8) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. Skyworks fell 3.37% but was the best SOXL-impact name because its small index weight limited its contribution to the sector’s decline.

ASML (P/E: 60.8) ASML continued to digest Wednesday’s earnings report, which featured record orders, stronger guidance, and plans to expand EUV capacity. The shares declined only 0.67%, outperforming most semiconductor-equipment stocks as the company’s strong AI-driven order book helped limit the damage.

RMBS (P/E: 48.3) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. Rambus declined 2.92% but remained the third-best SOXL-impact name because of its relatively small index weight.

TSM (P/E: 33.3) TSMC reported a record $22 billion quarterly profit, up 77% year over year, as revenue increased 34% to approximately $40.2 billion. The company raised its third-quarter revenue outlook to $44.6–$45.8 billion, increased its 2026 capital-spending forecast to $60–$64 billion, and committed another $100 billion to U.S. manufacturing. Shares nevertheless fell as elevated spending, margin pressure, and exceptionally high investor expectations outweighed the earnings beat.

MRVL (P/E: 66.7) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. Marvell fell 9.09% and was the third-largest SOXL-impact drag as investors continued reducing exposure to highly valued custom-AI-silicon and data-center connectivity stocks.

AMD (P/E: 198.2) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Wednesday noon. AMD declined 5.66% and produced the second-largest negative SOXL impact as TSMC’s strong results failed to restore confidence in the broader AI-chip trade.

MU (P/E: 42.1) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag as the memory-stock selloff continued. Investors took profits after Micron’s roughly 217% year-to-date rally while weighing elevated valuations, potential Chinese competition, concern about future capacity growth, and the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.

No News to Mention: NVMI, ENTG, ASX, MTSI, STM, ARM, ON, MCHP, UMC, ADI, QCOM, AMAT, KLAC, NXPI, MPWR, TER, TXN, CRDO, LRCX, NVDA, ALAB, AVGO, INTC.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.44%	-3.37%	-0.01%	-0.04%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.43%	-0.67%	-0.02%	-0.05%
RMBS	Rambus	0.57%	-2.92%	-0.02%	-0.05%
NVMI	Nova	0.77%	-3.96%	-0.03%	-0.09%
ENTG	Entegris	1.08%	-3.42%	-0.04%	-0.11%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.27%	-3.08%	-0.04%	-0.12%
MTSI	MACOM	1.04%	-5.62%	-0.06%	-0.18%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.82%	-7.14%	-0.06%	-0.18%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.71%	-8.63%	-0.06%	-0.18%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.86%	-5.92%	-0.11%	-0.33%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.37%	-4.80%	-0.11%	-0.34%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.07%	-10.71%	-0.12%	-0.35%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.92%	-2.95%	-0.12%	-0.35%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.94%	-4.01%	-0.12%	-0.35%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.34%	-2.34%	-0.13%	-0.38%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.85%	-2.78%	-0.13%	-0.40%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.60%	-3.88%	-0.14%	-0.42%
TSM	TSMC	4.32%	-3.24%	-0.14%	-0.42%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.31%	-4.56%	-0.15%	-0.45%
TER	Teradyne	2.75%	-5.83%	-0.16%	-0.48%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.09%	-4.16%	-0.17%	-0.51%
CRDO	Credo	1.94%	-9.61%	-0.19%	-0.56%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.37%	-4.65%	-0.20%	-0.61%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.35%	-2.74%	-0.23%	-0.69%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.53%	-9.87%	-0.25%	-0.75%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.32%	-3.62%	-0.27%	-0.80%
INTC	Intel	5.39%	-5.49%	-0.30%	-0.89%
MRVL	Marvell	4.17%	-9.09%	-0.38%	-1.14%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.51%	-5.66%	-0.48%	-1.44%
MU	Micron	7.73%	-6.29%	-0.49%	-1.46%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.87%	N/A	-4.70%	-14.11%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-4.72%	-4.72%	-14.17%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-14.75%	N/A	-14.75%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -1.44%

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: TSM earnings are good but the market is not impressed. Presumably this will be the trend for the rest of the earnings calls coming up these next few weeks. I think I've said this before but I probably won't be super concerned about missing my target unless it's still dragging after midterms in November.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

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it’s just dumb and unproductive. Men and women need to work together to raise families. Neither group is ideologically homogeneous. If every member of the opposite sex you talk to seems toxic then you’re probably the toxic one.

Talking about gender and relationships is fine, hell, even complaining about a specific and defined group of men or women is fine, but it’s usually clear when a poster doesn’t have anything to contribute other than purely sexist complaining. That is the lowest form of online discussion and needs to be dropped.

Main story: Semiconductors reversed Tuesday’s rebound and fell despite ASML reporting record orders, beating second-quarter estimates, and raising its 2026 outlook. The strong report initially lifted chip stocks, but investors resumed reducing exposure to the sector’s largest 2026 winners amid valuation concerns, memory-competition fears, and uncertainty about the durability of AI capital spending. Micron, AMD, Intel, Marvell, and semiconductor-equipment names led the decline.

UMC (P/E: 38.5) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday noon. United Microelectronics was the only SOXX holding to make a meaningful positive contribution, rising 1.82% while nearly the entire semiconductor index declined.

SWKS (P/E: 10.9) No new material company-specific news was found since Tuesday noon. Skyworks declined 1.27% but ranked second by SOXL impact because of its small index weight and relative resilience during the broad selloff.

NVMI (P/E: 44.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday noon. Nova fell 2.56% but remained the third-best SOXL-impact name as larger semiconductor-equipment companies suffered considerably steeper declines.

ASML (P/E: 60.2) ASML beat second-quarter expectations with €9.33 billion in revenue and €2.92 billion in net income, raised its 2026 revenue forecast to €43–45 billion, and announced plans to expand EUV capacity by approximately 30%. Its order book indicated extremely strong AI-related demand, but the shares reversed an early gain and finished lower with the broader sector.

INTC (P/E: N/A) ASML said Intel is preparing to use its next-generation High-NA lithography equipment for upcoming chips, providing a positive indication for Intel’s advanced manufacturing roadmap. That news was overwhelmed by the broader selloff, leaving Intel the third-largest SOXL-impact drag ahead of its July 23 earnings report.

AMD (P/E: 182.1) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Tuesday noon. AMD fell 6.70% and produced the second-largest negative SOXL impact as investors reduced exposure to highly valued AI-chip stocks following their sharp gains earlier this year.

MU (P/E: 20.4) Micron was the largest SOXL-impact drag after China’s CXMT increased the planned size of its Shanghai IPO to approximately $8.6 billion. The financing could accelerate CXMT’s DRAM-capacity expansion, raising longer-term competition and oversupply concerns even though current AI-memory demand remains strong and U.S. restrictions limit CXMT’s access to advanced equipment.

No News to Mention: ASX, AVGO, RMBS, ARM, QCOM, MTSI, STM, ENTG, ON, ADI, MCHP, TSM, NXPI, TXN, MPWR, CRDO, ALAB, NVDA, TER, KLAC, LRCX, AMAT, MRVL.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.00%	1.82%	0.02%	0.06%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.43%	-1.27%	-0.01%	-0.02%
NVMI	Nova	0.76%	-2.56%	-0.02%	-0.06%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.23%	-2.73%	-0.03%	-0.10%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.06%	-0.45%	-0.03%	-0.10%
RMBS	Rambus	0.57%	-6.05%	-0.03%	-0.10%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.71%	-5.52%	-0.04%	-0.12%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.32%	-2.05%	-0.05%	-0.14%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.88%	-1.49%	-0.04%	-0.13%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	-4.85%	-0.05%	-0.15%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.83%	-6.20%	-0.05%	-0.16%
ENTG	Entegris	1.08%	-5.28%	-0.06%	-0.17%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.84%	-3.32%	-0.06%	-0.18%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.85%	-2.18%	-0.08%	-0.25%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.33%	-3.77%	-0.09%	-0.26%
TSM	TSMC	4.23%	-2.20%	-0.09%	-0.28%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.58%	-3.03%	-0.11%	-0.33%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.05%	-3.04%	-0.12%	-0.37%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.29%	-4.47%	-0.15%	-0.44%
CRDO	Credo	1.97%	-7.61%	-0.15%	-0.45%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.55%	-6.33%	-0.16%	-0.49%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.13%	-2.60%	-0.21%	-0.63%
TER	Teradyne	2.77%	-7.66%	-0.21%	-0.64%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.86%	-5.93%	-0.29%	-0.86%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.41%	-7.41%	-0.33%	-0.98%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.36%	-6.32%	-0.34%	-1.02%
MRVL	Marvell	4.40%	-9.32%	-0.41%	-1.23%
INTC	Intel	5.51%	-7.77%	-0.43%	-1.28%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.61%	-6.70%	-0.58%	-1.73%
MU	Micron	8.21%	-10.79%	-0.89%	-2.66%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.87%	N/A	-5.09%	-15.27%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-5.07%	-5.07%	-15.21%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-14.92%	N/A	-14.92%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.54%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	3.67%	83.2M
SOXL	21.96%	132.6M

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: There's some concern I've seen that there may be chip overproduction. Part of why I thought this was a good investment is because chip production is very slow and expensive to expand. Here's the estimates I can find for the global number of 8 inch wafers produced every month for the past few years.

| Year | 8-inch-equivalent capacity |

| 2022 | **28.1 million/month** |

| 2023 | **29.6 million/month** |

| 2024 | **31.5 million/month** |

| 2025 | **33.7 million/month** |

Roughly 20% increase over 3 years, with a significant portion being just running existing fabs faster which hits a limit very quickly. Now you are probably familiar with Moore's law, but there is also a lesser known second law: The capital cost of building a leading-edge semiconductor fab roughly doubles every four years. Now a new fab costs roughly 30 Billion.

The point being this: Demand is the side of the equation that we should be concerned with as it's much more flexible than the supply. Compared to how fast demand moves supply may as well be completely stagnant. Demand seems pretty healthy given how much OpenAI's and Anthropic's revenues have been expanding.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors rebounded sharply as cooler-than-expected June inflation eased concerns about additional Federal Reserve rate increases and encouraged investors to buy Monday’s steep decline. Memory stocks led the recovery after KeyBanc forecast persistent shortages, rapidly rising DRAM and NAND prices, and continued strength in AI-related demand.

MU (P/E: 22.1) Micron led SOXL impact after KeyBanc raised its price target from $1,600 to $1,750. The firm expects memory shortages to persist through 2027, DRAM prices to rise 15%–20% in both the third and fourth quarters, and high-bandwidth-memory pricing to more than double next year.

AMD (P/E: 186.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. AMD was the second-largest positive SOXL-impact name as investors returned to major AI-chip stocks following Monday’s broad semiconductor selloff.

NVDA (P/E: 31.2) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. Nvidia contributed the third-largest positive SOXL impact as improving macro sentiment and renewed optimism around AI and memory demand supported the sector.

TSM (P/E: 36.6) No new company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. TSMC slipped 0.45% despite Monday’s record June revenue report, with investors now focused on its second-quarter earnings announcement scheduled for July 16.

ARM (P/E: 380.5) No new material company-specific news was found since Monday noon. Arm fell 7.09% and was the second-largest SOXL-impact drag, sharply underperforming the broader semiconductor rebound as investors continued reducing exposure to some of the sector’s highest-valued names.

QCOM (P/E: 19.8) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Monday noon. Qualcomm declined 2.98% and was the largest SOXL-impact drag, extending its retreat from the gains that followed its June investor-day data-center targets.

No News to Mention: MPWR, LRCX, INTC, KLAC, AVGO, AMAT, TER, TXN, NXPI, MRVL, ADI, MCHP, ASML, ON, ALAB, NVMI, ENTG, MTSI, UMC, STM, CRDO, RMBS, ASX, SWKS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
MU	Micron	8.03%	4.78%	0.38%	1.15%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.62%	3.63%	0.31%	0.94%
NVDA	Nvidia	8.02%	2.89%	0.23%	0.70%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.17%	7.19%	0.23%	0.68%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.31%	4.41%	0.19%	0.57%
INTC	Intel	5.41%	3.26%	0.18%	0.53%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.81%	3.57%	0.17%	0.52%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.15%	2.38%	0.17%	0.51%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.32%	2.87%	0.15%	0.46%
TER	Teradyne	2.75%	4.02%	0.11%	0.33%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.06%	2.49%	0.10%	0.30%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.60%	2.67%	0.10%	0.29%
MRVL	Marvell	4.42%	2.01%	0.09%	0.27%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.88%	2.19%	0.08%	0.25%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.32%	3.41%	0.08%	0.24%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.31%	2.97%	0.07%	0.21%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.82%	3.45%	0.06%	0.19%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.62%	1.69%	0.04%	0.13%
NVMI	Nova	0.74%	5.27%	0.04%	0.12%
ENTG	Entegris	1.07%	3.47%	0.04%	0.11%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	3.17%	0.03%	0.10%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.02%	2.24%	0.02%	0.07%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.84%	2.45%	0.02%	0.06%
CRDO	Credo	2.03%	0.81%	0.02%	0.05%
RMBS	Rambus	0.57%	1.96%	0.01%	0.03%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.27%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.45%	-0.21%	0.00%	0.00%
TSM	TSMC	4.36%	-0.45%	-0.02%	-0.06%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.77%	-7.09%	-0.05%	-0.16%
QCOM	Qualcomm	3.05%	-2.98%	-0.09%	-0.27%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	2.77%	8.31%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	2.67%	2.67%	8.00%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	7.28%	N/A	7.28%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.87%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	3.80%	80.7M
SOXL	28.71%	132.6M

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: Yesterday Trump opted to just blockading Iran and escorting ships through Hormuz, originally for a fee but he seems to have backed off that. If you recall this is one of the possible outcomes I outlined previously, which to summarize were basically either force the Strait open with the military or sign a crappy deal with Iran. So personally, I would prefer it for this to be the permanent status for now, although I am unsure it will simply because it's a very dynamic situation. This is a downgrade from the strait being fully open but significantly better than it being closed, and it leaves the military flexibility to deal with Iran further as they are apt to do. The unknown factor is how well the military can escort ships through safely. I like to think the US military is good at it's job but defensive positions are significantly harder to hold than offensive positions.

Inflation data came in today as good. No inflation in the past month. Market is happy but not euphoric on the news because one month doesn't make a pattern.

I got to work with GPT-5.6-Sol last night for the first time and can confirm it's pretty friggin good.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semiconductors suffered a broad risk-off selloff as SK Hynix plunged more than 15% in South Korea following its massive Nasdaq listing, reigniting concerns about stretched AI valuations, future memory oversupply, and the sustainability of hyperscaler spending. Rising oil prices and renewed U.S.–Iran tensions added macro pressure. TSMC’s record June and second-quarter revenue provided strong evidence that current AI-chip demand remains healthy, but it was insufficient to reverse the sector’s decline.

SWKS (P/E: 25.2) No new material company-specific news found since Friday afternoon; Skyworks was the best-performing SOXL-impact name but still declined 3.13% during the broad semiconductor selloff.

STM (P/E: 446.6) No new material company-specific news found since Friday afternoon; STMicroelectronics was the second-best SOXL-impact name despite falling 3.02%.

NVMI (P/E: 59.7) No new material company-specific news found since Friday afternoon; Nova fell 4.75% but remained the third-best SOXL-impact name because of its relatively small index weight.

TSM (P/E: 37.7) TSMC reported record June revenue of NT$442.68 billion, up 67.9% year over year, bringing second-quarter revenue to a record NT$1.27 trillion and slightly above analyst expectations. The strong results demonstrated continued AI and high-performance-computing demand ahead of Thursday’s earnings report, although the shares declined with the broader sector.

INTC (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) Intel announced a €5 billion investment in its Leixlip, Ireland manufacturing operation to expand production and research capacity for AI-related server chips. It also unveiled Starfire, a radiation-hardened government chip combining an Intel 18A Panther Lake CPU with an Intel 3 GPU. The positive announcements were outweighed by the global chip selloff, leaving Intel among the bottom-three SOXL-impact names.

MU (P/E: 22.1) Micron fell as SK Hynix’s historic decline spread across memory stocks. Investors weighed strong near-term HBM demand against concerns that hundreds of billions of dollars in planned capacity from SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron could eventually create oversupply. Micron was the second-largest SOXL-impact drag.

ALAB (P/E: 279.0) No new material company-specific announcement was found since Friday afternoon. Astera Labs was the worst SOXL-impact name, falling 13.79% as investors reduced exposure to highly valued AI-infrastructure and connectivity stocks during the global semiconductor selloff.

No News to Mention: UMC, RMBS, MTSI, ASX, ARM, QCOM, ENTG, ASML, ON, MCHP, ADI, NXPI, TXN, MPWR, TER, CRDO, NVDA, AVGO, KLAC, AMAT, AMD, LRCX, MRVL.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.45%	-3.02%	-0.01%	-0.04%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.83%	-3.33%	-0.03%	-0.08%
NVMI	Nova	0.74%	-5.01%	-0.04%	-0.11%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.00%	-4.05%	-0.04%	-0.12%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	-7.75%	-0.05%	-0.14%
MTSI	MACOM	1.05%	-4.87%	-0.05%	-0.15%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.27%	-4.31%	-0.05%	-0.16%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.79%	-7.55%	-0.06%	-0.18%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.99%	-2.15%	-0.06%	-0.19%
ENTG	Entegris	1.09%	-5.87%	-0.06%	-0.19%
TSM	TSMC	4.27%	-1.79%	-0.08%	-0.23%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.29%	-3.33%	-0.08%	-0.23%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.84%	-4.48%	-0.08%	-0.25%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.32%	-4.11%	-0.10%	-0.29%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.79%	-2.69%	-0.10%	-0.31%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.60%	-3.39%	-0.12%	-0.37%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.04%	-3.55%	-0.14%	-0.43%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.16%	-4.61%	-0.15%	-0.44%
TER	Teradyne	2.76%	-5.23%	-0.14%	-0.43%
CRDO	Credo	2.10%	-8.00%	-0.17%	-0.50%
NVDA	Nvidia	7.92%	-2.74%	-0.22%	-0.65%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.09%	-3.13%	-0.22%	-0.67%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.77%	-4.86%	-0.23%	-0.70%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.30%	-4.82%	-0.26%	-0.77%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.56%	-3.46%	-0.30%	-0.89%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.36%	-5.99%	-0.26%	-0.78%
MRVL	Marvell	4.56%	-7.24%	-0.33%	-0.99%
INTC	Intel	5.49%	-6.12%	-0.34%	-1.01%
MU	Micron	7.99%	-5.44%	-0.43%	-1.30%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.85%	-14.42%	-0.41%	-1.23%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.87%	N/A	-4.61%	-13.83%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-4.63%	-4.63%	-13.89%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-13.92%	N/A	-13.92%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.72%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	3.99%	81.9M
SOXL	23.90%	132.7M

CBOE Volatility Index: 17

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I've seen one person ask, and I suspect more and more people will start to ask, "With how good the AI models are getting, will they continue to need so much computer power?" this is a smart question but it misses the bigger picture. The *current* uses will require less compute power but I'm not investing because AI going to get better at the things it already does. I'm investing because it's going to get good enough at more different things. For example OpenAI just made ChatGPT-Work so it can interface with more apps. These new use cases aren't saturated in the market yet. Hell, the current use-cases are barely saturated.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semis rebounded sharply as AI infrastructure momentum shifted back toward memory, chip equipment, and custom silicon. Meta’s reported plan to launch its in-house “Iris” AI chip in September helped drive Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA higher, while Micron rallied on a new U.S. wafer supply/investment deal with GlobalWafers. Broadcom also stayed in focus after Apple’s $30B U.S.-made chip agreement.

AMD (P/E: 180.8) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; AMD was the top SOXL-impact name.

MU (P/E: 23.0) Micron rose after announcing a $3B U.S. semiconductor supply-chain push, including a $500M strategic investment in GlobalWafers and a 10-year wafer supply agreement for advanced 300mm wafers used in DRAM and HBM.

AMAT (P/E: 57.2) Applied Materials rallied with chip-equipment names after reports that Meta plans to launch its in-house “Iris” AI chip in September, adding another hyperscaler-driven demand signal for wafer-fab equipment.

LRCX (P/E: 66.3) Lam Research rose with the chip-equipment group after the Meta “Iris” chip report and continued bullish wafer-fab-equipment demand expectations tied to AI memory and custom silicon.

KLAC (P/E: 6.7) KLA rose with the equipment group after the Meta “Iris” chip report and continued AI/WFE optimism.

AVGO (P/E: 97.6) Broadcom stayed in focus after Apple announced a five-year, $30B agreement to buy U.S.-made Broadcom chips, including support for Broadcom’s Fort Collins, Colorado facility.

NVDA (P/E: 30.8) Nvidia was the only major SOXL-impact drag today. Reuters’ DeepSeek custom AI inference chip report continued to pressure sentiment around Nvidia’s long-term China AI-chip exposure.

INTC (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; Intel was the second-worst SOXL-impact drag.

No News to Mention: MRVL, ALAB, MPWR, TER, NXPI, TXN, ON, CRDO, ASX, MCHP, ADI, QCOM, ENTG, ARM, ASML, MTSI, TSM, NVMI, RMBS, STM, UMC, SWKS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.20%	6.70%	0.55%	1.65%
MU	Micron	7.99%	6.75%	0.54%	1.62%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.19%	6.79%	0.35%	1.06%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.28%	7.23%	0.31%	0.93%
MRVL	Marvell	4.62%	6.51%	0.30%	0.90%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.71%	6.30%	0.30%	0.89%
AVGO	Broadcom	7.12%	3.71%	0.26%	0.79%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.80%	8.88%	0.25%	0.75%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.17%	6.07%	0.19%	0.58%
TER	Teradyne	2.78%	5.41%	0.15%	0.45%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.61%	4.00%	0.14%	0.43%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.03%	3.58%	0.14%	0.43%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.86%	7.22%	0.13%	0.40%
INTC	Intel	5.69%	2.26%	0.13%	0.39%
CRDO	Credo	2.18%	5.90%	0.13%	0.39%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.23%	10.47%	0.13%	0.38%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.31%	5.49%	0.13%	0.38%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.81%	2.76%	0.11%	0.32%
QCOM	Qualcomm	3.04%	3.06%	0.09%	0.28%
ENTG	Entegris	1.07%	8.45%	0.09%	0.27%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.76%	10.98%	0.08%	0.25%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.33%	3.31%	0.08%	0.23%
MTSI	MACOM	1.07%	6.78%	0.07%	0.22%
TSM	TSMC	4.44%	1.11%	0.05%	0.15%
NVMI	Nova	0.73%	6.52%	0.05%	0.14%
RMBS	Rambus	0.60%	6.65%	0.04%	0.12%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.82%	4.63%	0.04%	0.11%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.05%	1.78%	0.02%	0.06%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.45%	3.15%	0.01%	0.04%
NVDA	Nvidia	7.91%	-1.14%	-0.09%	-0.27%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.86%	N/A	4.78%	14.34%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	4.96%	4.96%	14.88%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	14.16%	N/A	14.16%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -1.27%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	4.13%	84.0M
SOXL	27.54%	124.8M

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: In this past week we got 4 new models from the major AI players, XAI, OpenAI, Anthropic (Fable 5 may not technically be in the last week but I'm counting it anyways), and Meta. The timing of these releases is worthy of note because technologically speaking it's very arbitrary how new model releases work. For most projects, you need to set out a series of changes you want in an update, implement the changes, test the changes, and the release date is set by factors like how long it will take to do that work. If anything is urgent it gets pushed into a hotfix prior to a major release. For AI models this is completely different. The code doesn't go live, the model does. While the internal work may be similar as they work on the system training the model, the model is trained continuously and can be released almost anytime. Thus the release schedule is based more around what's best for business rather than human/technical constraints. When one of the big companies release a model, the rest then quickly start their own releases so they can compete.

I believe these new models are at the point they can start taking over a great deal of software development work. I don't know if that means less or more software jobs, but that's irrelevant for the time being. Now the main bottleneck is them actually being able to interface with everything they need. All modern digital infrastructure is set up specifically to be hostile to bots as it was made under the assumption that bots were only disruptive. Now that regular use can be supplemented by bots, exceptions need to be built it. Since that is development work, and the bots already excel at that, it's a test at which businesses can adapt the fastest and they will thrive.

And as I've said previously, I think that with the tokens becoming more valuable, the compute resources will become more valuable as well.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semis bounced even while the broader market weakened after Trump said the Iran deal was “over,” sending oil higher and reviving inflation/geopolitical risk. Broadcom carried a lot of the group after Apple announced a $30B U.S.-made chip agreement with Broadcom, while Nvidia also stayed positive despite renewed AI-chip competition concerns from China.

AVGO (P/E: 97.6) Broadcom jumped after Apple announced a five-year, $30B agreement to buy U.S.-made Broadcom chips. The deal supports Broadcom’s Fort Collins, Colorado facility and reinforces Broadcom’s role as a key Apple supplier through 2031.

TXN (P/E: 52.0) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; Texas Instruments was a top-three SOXL-impact name.

AMAT (P/E: 53.5) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; Applied Materials was a top-three SOXL-impact name.

NVDA (P/E: 30.3) Nvidia stayed positive even as Reuters reported that China’s DeepSeek is developing its own AI inference chip, adding to concerns that Chinese AI firms are trying to reduce reliance on Nvidia and Huawei hardware.

NXPI (P/E: 26.6) NXP scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings release for July 28 after market close, with the earnings call set for 4:30 p.m. ET.

UMC (P/E: N/A) UMC reported Q2 revenue up 12.58% sequentially, helped by stronger demand and higher prices.

MU (P/E: 21.3) Micron remained tied to the recent Ford memory/storage supply agreement and broader AI memory pricing theme, but I did not find a new operating announcement from the past 24 hours.

MCHP (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) Microchip filed its 2026 proxy materials. This looks like a routine governance filing rather than operating news.

ON (P/E: 67.3) onsemi entered definitive agreements to divest two manufacturing facilities as part of its “Fab Right” strategy, aimed at improving its cost structure and gross margin profile.

ARM (P/E: N/A) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; Arm was a bottom-three SOXL-impact drag.

AMD (P/E: 167.2) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; AMD was a bottom-three SOXL-impact drag.

INTC (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) No new company-specific news found in the past 24 hours; Intel was the worst SOXL-impact drag.

No News to Mention: MPWR, LRCX, CRDO, KLAC, ADI, TSM, QCOM, ASML, TER, ENTG, ALAB, RMBS, ASX, STM, NVMI, MRVL, MTSI, SWKS.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
AVGO	Broadcom	6.93%	6.24%	0.43%	1.30%
TXN	Texas Instruments	4.01%	4.49%	0.18%	0.54%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.15%	3.43%	0.18%	0.53%
NVDA	Nvidia	7.79%	1.76%	0.14%	0.41%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.13%	3.83%	0.12%	0.36%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.28%	2.66%	0.11%	0.34%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.55%	2.65%	0.09%	0.28%
CRDO	Credo	2.12%	4.15%	0.09%	0.26%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.70%	2.03%	0.10%	0.29%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.83%	2.22%	0.08%	0.25%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.03%	6.22%	0.06%	0.19%
TSM	TSMC	4.49%	1.39%	0.06%	0.19%
QCOM	Qualcomm	3.04%	2.07%	0.06%	0.19%
MU	Micron	8.07%	0.74%	0.06%	0.18%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.35%	1.55%	0.04%	0.11%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.32%	1.57%	0.04%	0.11%
TER	Teradyne	2.77%	1.35%	0.04%	0.11%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.84%	1.43%	0.03%	0.08%
ENTG	Entegris	1.06%	2.26%	0.02%	0.07%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.78%	1.10%	0.03%	0.09%
RMBS	Rambus	0.59%	1.88%	0.01%	0.03%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.24%	1.46%	0.02%	0.05%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.82%	1.00%	0.01%	0.02%
NVMI	Nova	0.74%	0.91%	0.01%	0.02%
MRVL	Marvell	4.70%	0.42%	0.02%	0.06%
MTSI	MACOM	1.09%	0.50%	0.01%	0.02%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.47%	-0.98%	0.00%	-0.01%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.78%	-1.24%	-0.01%	-0.03%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.35%	-0.68%	-0.06%	-0.17%
INTC	Intel	5.82%	-3.30%	-0.19%	-0.58%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.88%	N/A	1.77%	5.31%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	1.68%	1.68%	5.04%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	5.11%	N/A	5.11%

My Take: Some people are asking me if I still hold to the $500 target, yea I mean there's still half the year left and were at a similar price as when I made the prediction. It would be a little strange to rescind it after having been to $300 without the market fundamentally changing. Furthermore in midterm years markets tend to shoot up right after election day as uncertainty collapses, so it could easily come down to the last couple months. I just got a call that I have to pick up my son from daycare so I have to cut this off here.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY

Main story: Semis sold off hard as AI-chip doubts came back into focus. Reuters reported that China’s DeepSeek is developing its own AI inference chip, which added pressure to Nvidia and the broader AI hardware trade. Samsung’s huge profit rebound also failed to calm memory-market concerns, with investors questioning whether the AI memory cycle is already near a peak.

NVDA (P/E: 30.2) Nvidia was the only positive SOXL-impact name, but sentiment was pressured by Reuters reporting that DeepSeek is developing its own AI inference chip to reduce reliance on Nvidia and Huawei hardware.

SWKS (P/E: 25.7) No new company-specific news found since yesterday; Skyworks was a top-three SOXL-impact name.

NVMI (P/E: 63.8) No new company-specific news found since yesterday; Nova was a top-three SOXL-impact name.

AVGO (P/E: 97.6) Broadcom filed an 8-K saying it expanded its Apple collaboration through 2031, including multiyear agreements to develop and supply custom ASIC silicon for multiple Apple product generations.

UMC (P/E: N/A) UMC reported Q2 revenue up 12.58% sequentially, with the increase attributed to stronger demand and higher prices.

ON (P/E: 70.5) onsemi entered definitive agreements to divest two manufacturing facilities as part of its “Fab Right” strategy, aimed at improving its cost structure and gross margin profile.

ADI (P/E: 57.7) Analog Devices completed its acquisition of Empower Semiconductor, expanding ADI’s power-delivery capabilities for AI compute.

MCHP (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) Microchip filed its 2026 proxy materials. This looks like a routine governance filing rather than operating news.

NXPI (P/E: 27.5) NXP scheduled its Q2 2026 earnings release for July 28 after market close, with the earnings call set for 4:30 p.m. ET.

AMD (P/E: 174.6) No new company-specific news found since yesterday; AMD was a bottom-three SOXL-impact drag as AI and data-center chip names sold off.

MU (P/E: 22.3) Micron fell as memory names sold off despite Samsung reporting a major profit rebound. Investors focused on whether the memory cycle is near a peak after the huge AI-driven DRAM/HBM rally. Separately, Micron and Ford signed a long-term strategic customer agreement for memory and storage supply for Ford’s next-generation vehicles.

INTC (P/E: N/A, negative EPS) No new company-specific news found since yesterday; Intel was the worst SOXL-impact drag in the group.

No News to Mention: RMBS, STM, ARM, QCOM, MTSI, ENTG, ASML, ASX, TXN, MPWR, TSM, CRDO, ALAB, KLAC, TER, LRCX, MRVL, AMAT.

Ticker	Company	SOXX weight	Today	Est. SOXX impact	Est. SOXL impact
NVDA	Nvidia	7.34%	0.75%	0.06%	0.17%
SWKS	Skyworks Solutions	0.46%	-2.16%	-0.01%	-0.03%
NVMI	Nova	0.73%	-4.08%	-0.03%	-0.09%
RMBS	Rambus	0.60%	-6.33%	-0.04%	-0.11%
STM	STMicroelectronics	0.83%	-4.61%	-0.04%	-0.11%
ARM	Arm Holdings	0.79%	-4.98%	-0.04%	-0.12%
AVGO	Broadcom	6.63%	-0.78%	-0.05%	-0.15%
QCOM	Qualcomm	2.94%	-2.08%	-0.06%	-0.18%
MTSI	MACOM	1.11%	-6.78%	-0.08%	-0.23%
UMC	United Microelectronics	1.06%	-7.72%	-0.08%	-0.25%
ON	ON Semiconductor	1.82%	-4.59%	-0.08%	-0.25%
ADI	Analog Devices	3.72%	-2.55%	-0.09%	-0.28%
ENTG	Entegris	1.08%	-8.92%	-0.10%	-0.29%
ASML	ASML Holding	2.33%	-4.16%	-0.10%	-0.29%
MCHP	Microchip Technology	2.29%	-4.49%	-0.10%	-0.31%
ASX	ASE Technology	1.29%	-8.36%	-0.11%	-0.32%
NXPI	NXP Semiconductors	3.46%	-3.32%	-0.11%	-0.34%
TXN	Texas Instruments	3.93%	-3.38%	-0.13%	-0.40%
MPWR	Monolithic Power Systems	3.14%	-4.74%	-0.15%	-0.45%
TSM	TSMC	4.45%	-3.63%	-0.16%	-0.48%
CRDO	Credo	2.16%	-7.70%	-0.17%	-0.50%
ALAB	Astera Labs	2.98%	-9.15%	-0.27%	-0.82%
KLAC	KLA Corporation	4.81%	-6.49%	-0.31%	-0.94%
TER	Teradyne	2.91%	-10.81%	-0.31%	-0.94%
LRCX	Lam Research	4.36%	-7.70%	-0.34%	-1.01%
MRVL	Marvell	4.82%	-7.25%	-0.35%	-1.05%
AMAT	Applied Materials	5.22%	-7.62%	-0.40%	-1.19%
AMD	Advanced Micro Devices	8.47%	-5.70%	-0.48%	-1.45%
MU	Micron	8.03%	-6.35%	-0.51%	-1.53%
INTC	Intel	6.11%	-9.44%	-0.58%	-1.73%
Total	Sum of Weights and Impact Est.	99.88%	N/A	-5.23%	-15.69%
SOXX	iShares Semiconductor ETF	100.00%	-5.28%	-5.28%	-15.83%
SOXL	Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares	N/A	-15.48%	N/A	-15.48%

Other Stats

Decay Today: -0.56%

	Dollar Volume Share	Shares Outstanding
SOXX	4.16%	72.3M
SOXL	27.63%	118.5M

CBOE Volatility Index: 16

Similar Tickers: KORU, SMH, NVDL, DRAM, TCAI, CHPY

My Take: I think I've neglected to comment on X AI and I think Meta pivoting to sell their server space instead of using it for their own AIs. This is slightly bearish to my thesis because Grok was once a legitimate competitor with OpenAI and Anthropic but that is no longer the case. As an investor in semiconductors, less AI and more servers on the market is bad for me. I need the AI companies competing for server space. To speak more directly to the economics: Less demand and more supply means lower prices.

I say only slightly bearish because I never put much credence into AI other than Anthropic and OpenAI and they are only selling the server space is because the prices have gotten so high.

This is not financial advise.

SOXL to $500 EOY