r/Natalism

5 feels like a different societal step up. Probably a church van. Almost impossible to get a table for 7. More kids than parent hands.

Not financially worried but it definitely seems like a bigger decision than our 4th was.

Convince me another makes sense.

After noticing many differences between birth gauge’s numbers and official numbers, I have done some research over the week. Here is what I found:

-The Agency of Statistics for Bosnia recorded a tfr of 1.2-1.3 not 1.7. That is also the tfr mentioned in the wikipedia demographics page

-Most official sources say Ukraine’s tfr has been below 1 since 2023-2024 and is at around 0.75-0.9 now. Birth gauge says 1.03

-Belarus is just wrong. Official sources say tfr is 1.03 in 2025. Birth gauge not only overestimates but also doesn’t even give the number of live births it used to calaculate its tfr and just says 1.19 for 2025.

-Russia is also just wrong, almost all official sources say Russia’s tfr has recorded a sharp decline in 2026. Estimated by demoria research.com to have declined from 1.37 in 2025 to 1.29 in 2026 with some states registering -15% to -27% declines. Birth gauge just says it went from 1.36 to 1.34 ??? That is literally wrong. Tfr can’t decline by 0.02 when live births declined by 8% and again birth gauge is the only source saying the decline isn’t sharp. Also without citing the live births it used.

-Almost every source on earth says Jamaica’s tfr is 1.3-1.5 . Birth gauge says 1.7 somehow ???? Not only that it says Jamaica went from 1.51 to 1.7 ??? I haven’t found anything on the web saying Jamaica recorded such a fast rise in tfr. They all say it’s pretty stagnant with the tfr being around 1.3-1.4.

-All official sources say Colombia’s tfr is around 1.03-1.06. Idk where birth gauge got the 1.2 number from

-Ecuador’s tfr should be much higher in 2024 than in 2026 based on official number of live births.

-a post was posted recently from new official data in argentina which says argentina’s tfr went from 1.23 in 2024 to 1.04 in 2025. Why is birth gauge saying it went from 1.18 in 2024 to 1.12 in 2025. What data is birth gauge using exactly?

-some numbers also don’t make sense mathematically Brazil recording a 3% decline in births would not result in the tfr declining from 1.53 to 1.50. More like to 1.48. Because Brazil has a stagnant female fertile population. Also other official sources say the decline is worse (-3.8%) which make the tfr around 1.47

-all official sources say Botswana’s tfr in 2024 was 1.96 not 2.16.

-Official sources say Algeria is at 2.44 in 2024 not 2.61. This subreddit itself keeps posting a map from 2024 that says Algeria is 2.44 but birth gauge says 2.61 ???

-Now the Tunisian numbers are not only wrong for 2025 but possibly even back to 2023 and the numbers in birth gauge are literally completely mathematically illogical. The actual numbers vary but what we all know is that Tunisia recorded a sharp tfr decline in 2022-2025 because births went from 147K (2022), 135K (2023), 126K (2024), 118K (2025), this is clearly a case where the tfr would be much lower each year than the year before it. The most accurate thing which is the one used on wikipedia is 1.7 in 2022, 1.58 in 2023, 1.48 in 2024, 1.40 in 2025. Birth gauge says 1.54 in 2024, fine I have seen some sources say that, even tho it doesn’t mathematically make sense since it requires the tfr to be higher in 2022, but then birth gauge says 1.53 in 2025 ? In what world does this work mathematically. with a stagnant female fertile population, and a -5.34% decline in births, tunisia’s tfr in 2025 is definitely in the 1.4 range

-Armenia isn’t updated. It’s a -2.8% decline and tfr should be 1.59-1.61 even with what’s mentioned in birth gauge not 1.65

-most if not all sources say Kyrgyztan’s tfr is below 3.4-3.5 range (birth gauge says 3.51)

-Wikipedia says 1.37 for Sri Lanka and birth gauge also used to put it in the 1.3 range. Why did 2024-2026 numbers suddenly become 1.45-1.46.

-Demographics Statistics from Malaysia’s government website gives a -4.6% decline in births between 2025 and 2026 not -0.7. This would make the tfr 1.35 not 1.4.

Things I am not sure of:

-Many eastern european countries seem to have generally recorded a worse decline in tfr in 2026 than suggested by birth gauge.

I don't really buy into the idea that most of the current declining birth rates is because of financial instability and lack of housing or resources.

I think one of if not the biggest contributing factors is that on a global scale, women now have much more financial independence, agency, and control over their own bodily autonomy, than at any point in human history. They now have the ability to decide whether or not to get pregnant or become mothers, and when presented with the choice, a large proportion of women chose not to.

My social circle includes a lot of woman in their 20s and 30s and when we talk about whether we want to have children, it's common to hear something along the lines of "I would be more keen on it of I could be the dad rather than the mum".

That's not to say that fatherhood doesn't have its challenges, but women definitely draw the short straw when it comes to reproduction.

Think about what bringing children into the world involves for women.

Pregnancy is often extremely uncomfortable involving hormonal changes, nausea, pelvic and back pain, skin and hair changes. It involves invasive procedures such as pelvic examinations and intravaginal ultrasounds. There is a risk of miscarriage or stillbirth which can be psychologically traumatic.

And even in modern times, pregnancy is a very high risk state with a not insignificant risk of serious bodily harm, long term disability, and even death.

Then there is the immediate post partum period which involves breastfeeding which can be painful and inconvenient and other risks such as postnatal depression.

Then there is the fact that women are still by and large carrying the brunt of the physical, mental, and emotional labour that goes into raising children and running a household. And the impact of having kids on their lifestyles and careers is in general much greater compared with the impact on men.

So it's not really that surprising that when given the choice, a lot of young women will opt out of the above.

So, how do we improve things for women and make motherhood more appealing?