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2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification update (October 5, 2026)

Once again, it's time to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification. (Somehow it's Meme Monday and nobody has posted any memes; I suspect it's because of the international week!)

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • We've had another full week of MLS games and two full weeks of CPL games, and the Champions Cup picture in both leagues are getting to become clearer in focus!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Monterrey [MEX] in the championship, 2-0.
  • León [MEX] defeated América [MEX] in the third-place game, 1-0.

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Since Toluca qualified through Leagues Cup and were a LigaMX champion, Cruz Azul automatically gets a bye to the Round of 16. (They would have earned this anyways as Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table; Toluca was second.)
  • Three clubs have qualified so far through LigaMX, so we need three additional qualifiers, which are Chivas [MEX] in third, América [MEX] in fifth, and Pachuca [MEX] in seventh. (Tigres was fourth, Pumas was sixth.)

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA] with 60 points; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference with 51.
  • The next two best are St. Louis City FC [USA] and FC Dallas [USA] with 47 points.
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, New England Revolution [USA] would claim a spot. They’re on 46 points and lead San Jose Earthquakes [USA] and Inter Miami [USA] by one point (though Inter Miami has a game in hand.)
  • Nashville’s magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 9.
  • The regular season ends on November 7; MLS Cup is scheduled for December 18.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The final is set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 53 points from 25 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] by five points (although Forge have a game in hand); both of these clubs have clinched their spots in the four team playoff.
    • This assumes that all clubs meet their requirement of 2,000 U-21 Domestic Player minutes over the course of the season (clubs that don’t are automatically ineligible for the playoffs.) Only Cavalry has not met this quota already.
    • Note that the quota only allows 1,000 minutes to come from players on loan, so Adam Pearlman’s nearly 2,000 minutes gets shrunk to 1,000. Cavalry currently owes 234 minutes.
  • Cavalry has clinched at least second place; Forge has a magic number of 2 to do the same. (Remember, if any club pulls the domestic double, second place qualifies!)
  • Atlético Ottawa [CAN] has also clinched their playoff berth; in theory they have a magic number of 1 to clinch but currently Pacific FC [CAN], HFX Wanderers [CAN], and Inter Toronto [CAN] cannot catch them. Supra de Québec [CAN] can only tie them (but Ottawa holds the tiebreaker on head-to-head); besides, if Supra wins out, then Vancouver FC [CAN] can’t catch Ottawa.
  • The last playoff berth is currently held by Vancouver FC with a five point lead over Supra (although Supra has a game in hand); Vancouver’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 8.
  • Cavalry’s magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 8.
  • The regular season ends on October 25; the North Star Cup final is the weekend of November 21.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The final is set!
    • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (2) Forge FC [CAN]
  • For the sake of completeness, Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] has the edge over Supra de Québec [CAN] if both Montréal and Forge qualify through other competitions; this would likely require Montréal to win the league.
  • The final is on October 21.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set! All semifinalists have qualified for Concacaf Champions Cup. (First team listed hosts the second leg - this was determined by performance through all games of the competition thus far.)
    • Olimpia [HON] v Cartaginés [CRC]
    • Alajuelense [CRC] v Motagua [HON]
  • The play-in matches are likewise set!
    • Saprissa [CRC] v LA Firpo [SLV]
    • Alianza [SLV] v Marathón [HON]
  • If Olimpia advances to the final, they’ll host the second leg as they will be guaranteed to have the better record through the competition (20 points at minimum if a double draw, compared to a maximum of 19 for Alajuelense or 18 for Motagua if they win both.)
  • I fully expect, regardless of who advances to the finals, that Costa Rica and Honduras will get the extra berths for the 2027 Central American Cup. (It's usually determined by the nations of the two clubs that reach the final, but it's entirely possible that the finals will be contested by two clubs from the same nation.)
  • Note that regardless of the results, we’ll have the fewest Central American nations represented in Concacaf Champions Cup since 2022, when only clubs from Costa Rica, Honduras, and Guatemala qualified; we have to go back to 2006 to find a tournament when only two countries qualified (Costa Rica and Honduras), which could happen if both Saprissa and Marathón win their play-ins.
  • The semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The group stage is complete and the semifinals are set!
    • Violette [HAI] v Portmore United [JAM]
    • Mount Pleasant [JAM] v Sando FC [TRI]
  • Should both Mount Pleasant and Portmore United qualify, it’ll mark the first time since the 2016/17 tournament that two Caribbean clubs from the same nation qualify for the tournament, when both Central and W Connection qualified from Trinidad and Tobago.
  • The semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order. (We're going to denote these as C1-C5.)
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket. (We'll note these as D1-D3.)
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket. (These are A1-A8.)
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded. (These are B1-B11.)

The bracket will look like this:

Seeded R16 Unseeded R16
C1 A1/B1
C5 A2/B2
C4 A3/B3
D1/B4 A4/B5
C2 A5/B6
D3/B7 A6/B8
C3 A7/B9
D2/B10 A8/B11

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.

This leads to the following projections as of right now (we’ll revisit these when the new rankings come out on Monday, though I won't get to them until the evening):

  • Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, New England, Dallas, and San Jose qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
  • Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
  • Forge beats Montréal in the Canadian Championship final; with Forge qualifying elsewhere, Montréal gets the berth.
  • The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Marathón win the play-in round.
  • The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Mount Pleasant; Portmore United takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

First Round Byes Rk Pts
Toluca [MEX] 1 1291
Cruz Azul [MEX] 2 1255
Nashville SC [USA] 7 1227
Olimpia [HON] 24 1177
Violette [HAI] 61 1098
Placed Into Bracket Rk Pts
Tigres [MEX] 3 1254
América [MEX] 4 1236
Chivas [MEX] 5 1230
Seeded Teams Rk Pts
Monterrey [MEX] 9 1210
León [MEX] 10 1208
Pachuca [MEX] 10 1206
Columbus Crew [USA] 13 1201
Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] 14 1196
FC Dallas [USA] 15 1196
Pumas [MEX] 16 1195
St. Louis City FC [USA] 22 1180
Unseeded Teams Rk Pts
New England Revolution [USA] 34 1166
Alajuelense [CRC] 38 1163
Saprissa [CRC] 43 1147
Cartaginés [CRC] 49 1133
CF Montréal [CAN] 50 1133
Forge FC [CAN] 53 1128
Cavalry FC [CAN] 55 1127
Motagua [HON] 57 1122
Marathón [HON] 60 1107
Mount Pleasant [JAM] 82 1058
Portmore United [JAM] 104 1030

###Seeding Analysis

  • I’m pretty sure that Toluca will stay in the C1 position. They’re ahead of Cruz Azul by 35 points. There's a big advantage in being the overall top seed; you avoid the potential top clubs until the semifinals.
  • Similarly, I’m pretty sure Cruz Azul will stay ahead of whoever the MLS champion is for C2. They’re currently 26 points ahead of LAFC, who’s the highest ranked American club in 5th, and they’re 35 points ahead of Nashville, who’s the current projected winner of MLS.
  • I feel confident that C4 will be the Central American Cup champion and C5 will be the Caribbean Cup champion. Everyone left in the race for the Central American Cup title is better than Violette, who is the highest-ranked Caribbean Cup club.
  • In terms of D1 through D3, I think Tigres is safely D1 (they’re 22 points ahead of América and Chivas); I think that América and Chivas are less so. If LAFC can climb into a Champions Cup berth, they’re only one point behind.
  • In terms of Pot B, I’ve been saying that I fully expect the five Central American clubs, the two Caribbean clubs, the two CPL clubs, and the Canadian Championship berth to be unseeded. That leaves one berth to be unseeded and it’s highly likely that it's an MLS club, given we'd need five First Round clubs to be ahead of the lowest LigaMX qualifier. Best guess right now is one of St. Louis, New England, or Houston.
    • However, I’m starting to think that a Central American club (specifically Olimpia) might be able to take a spot in Pot A if they don’t win Central American Cup, depending on which MLS clubs qualify.

Thirteen berths have been handed out so far; that leaves fourteen berths yet to be assigned!

Our next expected update will be on Monday, October 26. By that point:

  • the winners of the Canadian Championship and the US Open Cup will be known
  • The Caribbean Cup final will be set
  • the regular season for the Canadian Premier League will be finished

There's a possibility I might update sooner if someone comes close to clinching a Concacaf Champions Cup berth in either MLS or CPL.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/WJMorris3 — 10 days ago
▲ 33 r/MLS

2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification update (September 8, 2026)

I’ve decided with the conclusion of Leagues Cup, it's time (once again) to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • The Leagues Cup has finished!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Monterrey [MEX] in the championship, 2-0.
  • León [MEX] defeated América [MEX] in the third-place game, 1-0.

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Since Toluca qualified through Leagues Cup and were a LigaMX champion, Cruz Azul automatically gets a bye to the Round of 16. (They would have earned this anyways as Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table; Toluca was second.)
  • Three clubs have qualified so far through LigaMX, so we need three additional qualifiers, which are Chivas [MEX] in third, América [MEX] in fifth, and Pachuca [MEX] in seventh. (Tigres was fourth, Pumas was sixth.)

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [USA] lead the Western Conference.
  • The next two best are Inter Miami [USA] and Houston Dynamo [USA].
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Chicago Fire [USA], who currently lead Los Angeles FC [USA], FC Dallas [USA], St. Louis City SC [USA], and New England Revolution [USA] by a point. Note that the Fire have at least one game in hand on all four of these clubs (two games in hand on LAFC.)
  • Nashville’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is currently 7; their magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 21.
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 46 points from 20 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] by four points and Atlético Ottawa [CAN] by 12 points.
  • Cavalry can actually clinch a playoff berth with one more victory; their magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 21.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set! (First team listed hosts the second leg.)
    • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] (The first leg ended a 1-1 draw.)
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN] (The first leg ended a 1-1 draw.)
  • Just looking ahead for potential tiebreakers:
    • The most likely clubs to qualify from a method other than the Canadian Championship are the Whitecaps and Forge. Should both clubs make it to the final, then Montréal will hold the tiebreaker over Supra. (Supra would need to win to pass Montréal, and if Supra wins, they’d make the final.)
  • It’s been decided that the winner of the Whitecaps/Montréal series will host the final.
  • The second leg of the semifinals is scheduled for the midweek of September 16; the final is on October 21.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The quarterfinals are set!
    • (1) Olimpia v (8) LA Firpo
    • (4) Cartaginés v (5) Saprissa
    • (2) Alajuelense v (7) Marathón
    • (3) Alianza v (6) Motagua
  • The quarterfinals are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • Three matchdays of five are in the books!
Group A W D L Pts GD MD4 MD5
Violette [HAI] 2 0 0 6 +4 at Broki v Sando
Sando FC [TRI] 2 0 0 6 +3 v Delfines at Violette
Defence Force [TRI] 1 0 2 3 -4 (bye) at Delfines
Delfines del Este [DOM] 0 1 1 1 -1 at Sando v Defence Force
e-Broki [SUR] 0 1 2 1 -2 v Violette (bye)
Group B W D L Pts GD MD4 MD5
Salcedo [DOM] 1 2 0 5 +1 v Cibao (bye)
Cibao [DOM] 1 1 0 4 +1 at Salcedo v Portmore
Portmore United [JAM] 1 0 1 3 +1 v Mt. Pleasant at Cibao
Cavalier [JAM] 0 2 1 2 -2 (bye) at Mt. Pleasant
Mount Pleasant [JAM] 0 1 1 1 -1 at Portmore v Cavalier
  • The semifinals are currently:
    • Violette v Cibao
    • Salcedo v Sando FC
  • The last two matches of the group stage are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order. (We're going to denote these as C1-C5.)
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket. (We'll note these as D1-D3.)
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket. (These are A1-A8.)
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded. (These are B1-B11.)

The bracket will look like this:

Seeded R16 Unseeded R16
C1 A1/B1
C5 A2/B2
C4 A3/B3
D1/B4 A4/B5
C2 A5/B6
D3/B7 A6/B8
C3 A7/B9
D2/B10 A8/B11

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Inter Miami, Houston, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
  • Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
  • With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to CF Montréal.
  • The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Motagua make the semifinals; Cartaginés and Marathón win the play-in round.
  • The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Sando FC; Cibao takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

First Round Byes Rk Pts
Toluca [MEX] 1 1289
Cruz Azul [MEX] 3 1256
Nashville SC [USA] 7 1227
Olimpia [HON] 27 1173
Violette [HAI] 64 1092
Placed Into Bracket Rk Pts
Tigres [MEX] 2 1256
América [MEX] 4 1244
Chivas [MEX] 6 1231
Seeded Teams Rk Pts
Inter Miami [USA] 8 1221
Monterrey [MEX] 9 1214
Pachuca [MEX] 10 1208
Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] 11 1203
Columbus Crew [USA] 12 1201
León [MEX] 14 1200
Pumas [MEX] 15 1198
Chicago Fire [USA] 17 1195
Unseeded Teams Rk Pts
Houston Dynamo [USA] 29 1173
Saprissa [CRC] 39 1158
Alajuelense [CRC] 41 1158
CF Montréal [CAN] 50 1130
Cavalry FC [CAN] 51 1128
Forge FC [CAN] 53 1126
Cartaginés [CRC] 55 1121
Motagua [HON] 56 1118
Marathón [HON] 58 1113
Cibao [DOM] 77 1064
Sando FC [TRI] 125 1007

###Seeding Analysis

  • I’m pretty sure that Toluca will stay in the C1 position. They’re ahead of Cruz Azul by 33 points, with Cruz Azul having a maximum of 14 games, Toluca having 15 games. I don’t see Toluca falling that far off. There's a big advantage in being the overall top seed; you avoid the potential top clubs until the semifinals.
  • Similarly, I’m pretty sure Cruz Azul will stay ahead of whoever the MLS champion is for C2. They’re currently 20 points ahead of LAFC, who’s the highest ranked American club in 5th, and they’re 29 points ahead of Nashville, who’s the current projected winner of MLS.
  • I feel confident that C4 will be the Central American Cup champion and C5 will be the Caribbean Cup champion. Pretty much everyone left in the Central American Cup field is better than Violette, who is the highest-ranked Caribbean Cup club.
  • In terms of D1 through D3, I think Tigres and América are safely there; I think that Chivas is less so. For one, they’re behind LAFC; for two, they’re only 4 points ahead of Nashville and 10 ahead of Inter Miami.
  • In terms of Pot B, I fully expect the five Central American clubs, the two Caribbean clubs, the two CPL clubs, and the Canadian Championship berth to be unseeded. (Assuming, of course, that the Whitecaps don't take the Canadian Championship berth.) That leaves one berth to be unseeded and it’s highly likely that it's an MLS club, given we'd need five First Round clubs to be ahead of the lowest LigaMX qualifier. Best guess here is that if either St. Louis or Colorado ends up winning Open Cup, that champion will be unseeded (St. Louis is 33rd, Colorado is 37th). If either Columbus or Orlando wins Open Cup, the unseeded club is probably Houston if they qualify.

Nine berths have been handed out so far; that leaves eighteen berths yet to be assigned!

Our next expected update will be on Monday, September 21. By that point:

  • the group stage of the Caribbean Cup will be completed
  • we’ll know the finalists in both the U.S. Open Cup and the Canadian Championship
  • we’ll have our first four qualifiers out of Central America

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/WJMorris3 — 1 month ago
▲ 48 r/newenglandrevolution+1 crossposts

2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification update (August 31, 2026)

Well. That was a dumpster fire of a performance by the MLS clubs in the Leagues Cup quarterfinals. It's time (once again) to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • While we don't have tournament regulations yet for the 2027 tournament, Concacaf has at least confirmed the qualifying methods. We will assume that anything not released yet is the same rules as 2026.
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • The Central American Cup has a knockout bracket!
  • The Leagues Cup semifinals are set!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table (Toluca was second), so they get the bye to the Round of 16.
  • The next highest ranked clubs are Chivas [MEX], who were third in the aggregate table, and América [MEX], who were fifth.

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [USA] lead the Western Conference.
  • The next two best are Inter Miami [USA] and Houston Dynamo [USA].
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Chicago Fire [USA], who currently lead New England Revolution [USA] on goal difference.
  • Nashville’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is currently 10; their magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 24.
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Cavalry [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 43 points from 19 matches. They lead Forge FC [CAN] by two points and Atlético Ottawa [CAN] by ten points.
  • Cavalry’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 9; their magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 26.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set! (First team listed hosts the second leg.)
    • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN]
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN]
  • Just looking ahead for potential tiebreakers:
    • CF Montréal won both of their quarterfinal matches.
    • Vancouver Whitecaps, Forge FC, and Supra du Québec all have a win and a draw.
    • The Whitecaps have a goal difference of +3, Supra has +2, and Forge has +1.
  • It’s been decided that the winner of the Whitecaps/Montréal series will host the final.
  • The semifinals are scheduled for the midweeks of September 2 and 16; the final is on October 21.

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • América [MEX] v Monterrey [MEX]
    • Toluca [MEX] v León [MEX]
  • Since both Toluca and América have already qualified for Concacaf Champions Cup (and at least one of them will finish in the top three), Pachuca [MEX] will qualify.
  • Either Monterrey will finish in the top three or both Toluca and América will, so Monterrey [MEX] qualifies as well.
  • The final qualifier will be León if they make it into the top three; if they do not, Tijuana [MEX] will qualify.
  • The semifinals are scheduled for the midweek of September 2; the final and third-place match for September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The group stage is finished!
    • In Group A, Alajuelense [CRC] finished top of the group with 9 points; LA Firpo [SLV] finished second with 7 points.
    • In Group B, Alianza [SLV] finished on 9 points to win the group; Marathón [HON] finished second on 7 points, beating out Herediano [CRC] on goal difference.
    • In Group C, Olimpia [HON] won all four games and finished on 12 points; Saprissa [CRC] finished second on 9 points.
    • In Group D, Cartaginés [CRC] and Motagua [HON] finished tied on 8 points; Cartaginés finished top of the group on discipline.
  • The quarterfinals are set! (First team listed hosts the second leg.)
    • (1) Olimpia v (8) LA Firpo
    • (4) Cartaginés v (5) Saprissa
    • (2) Alajuelense v (7) Marathón
    • (3) Alianza v (6) Motagua
  • The quarterfinals are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • Two matchdays of five are in the books!
    • In Group A, Violette [HAI] has 6 points from 2 games, while Sando FC [TRI] won its one game and is ahead of Defence Force [TRI] (who’ve split their games) on goal difference. Delfines del Este [DOM] have lost their only game; Broki [SUR] have lost both of theirs.
    • In Group B: Both Salcedo [DOM] and Cibao [DOM] sit on 4 points from 2 games; Salcedo is ahead on discipline. Cavalier [JAM] have drawn both their games; both Mount Pleasant [JAM] and Portmore United [JAM] have lost their only game thus far.
  • The semifinals are currently:
    • Violette v Cibao
    • Salcedo v Sando FC
  • The group stage ends on the midweek of September 16; the semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup champion, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Toluca beats América in the Leagues Cup final, with Monterrey beating León in the third place game. (This would qualify Tijuana.)
  • Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Inter Miami, Houston, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
  • Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
  • The Whitecaps beat Forge in the Canadian Championship final; with both clubs qualifying by other means, the berth goes to fourth-seeded CF Montréal.
  • The Central American Cup is won by Olimpia over Alajuelense in the final; Saprissa and Motagua make the semifinals; Cartaginés and Marathón win the play-in round.
  • The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Sando FC; Cibao takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

  • First round byes: Toluca (1), Cruz Azul (3), Nashville (6), Olimpia (29), Violette (64)
  • Placed into the bracket: Tigres (2), América (4), Chivas (7)
  • Seeded: Inter Miami (8), Vancouver Whitecaps (9), Columbus (10), Monterrey (11), Pachuca (12), Chicago (14), Pumas (17), Tijuana (25)
  • Unseeded: Houston (27), Alajuelense (39), Saprissa (42), CF Montréal (49), Cavalry (51), Forge (53), Motagua (55), Cartaginés (56), Marathón (58), Cibao (78), Sando FC (128)

Eight berths have been handed out so far; that leaves nineteen berths yet to be assigned!

Our next expected update will be on Monday, September 21. By that point:

  • the group stage of the Caribbean Cup will be completed
  • we’ll know the finalists in both the U.S. Open Cup and the Canadian Championship
  • we’ll have our first four qualifiers out of Central America

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/Ok-Communication706 — 1 month ago
▲ 14 r/MLS

2027 Concacaf Champions Club Update (August 17, 2026)

Leagues Cup is but a (maybe not so) fond memory for 28 of its 36 participants. With that in mind, it's time (once again) to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • The Caribbean Cup has started!
  • The Leagues Cup bracket has been set!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table (Toluca was second), so they get the bye to the Round of 16.
  • The next highest ranked clubs are Chivas [MEX], who were third in the aggregate table, and América [MEX], who were fifth.

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference.
  • The next two best are Inter Miami [USA] and Houston Dynamo [USA].
  • If one of these (or almost anybody else who's already qualified) were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Los Angeles FC [USA], who currently lead San Jose Earthquakes [USA] by one point (although the Earthquakes have a game in hand). It should also be noted that Chicago Fire [USA] are two points back, but the Fire have two games in hand.
  • Nashville’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is currently 24; their magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 38.
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Cavalry FC [CAN] currently leads the shield race with 37 points from 17 matches. They lead Forge [CAN] by two points (although Forge has a game in hand) and both Atlético Ottawa [CAN] and Vancouver FC [CAN] by ten points.
  • Cavalry’s magic number to clinch a playoff berth is 20; Forge’s magic number to clinch Champions Cup participation is 36.
    • Note: we’re using Forge’s number for Champions Cup participation because they have the highest maximum points in the league.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set! (First team listed hosts the second leg.)
    • (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] v (4) CF Montréal [CAN]
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN]
  • Just looking ahead for potential tiebreakers:
    • CF Montréal won both of their quarterfinal matches.
    • Vancouver Whitecaps, Forge FC, and Supra du Québec all have a win and a draw.
    • The Whitecaps have a goal difference of +3, Supra has +2, and Forge has +1.
  • It’s been decided that the winner of the Whitecaps/Montréal series will host the final.
  • The semifinals are scheduled for the midweeks of September 2 and 16; the final is on October 21.

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The quarterfinals are set!
    • Chicago Fire [USA] v Monterrey [MEX]
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v América [MEX]
    • Austin FC [USA] v Toluca [MEX]
    • Real Salt Lake [USA] v León [MEX]
  • As a thought, each league will claim a berth for every club that wins their quarterfinal, excluding the first club from each league that does. So if each league wins two quarterfinals, then each league will guarantee one berth to their side. If one league wins three and the other wins one, that will guarantee two berths to the side that won three.
  • Note that on the LigaMX side of things:
    • Pachuca [MEX] qualifies if either Toluca or América finish in the top three.
    • Monterrey qualifies if both Toluca and América finish in the top three.
      • If Monterrey also finishes top three, then Tijuana [MEX] qualifies.
    • León can only qualify on their own merit by finishing in the top three.
  • The quarterfinals are scheduled for the midweek of August 26; the semifinals for the midweek of September 2; the final and third-place match for September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • We’re three matchdays in at the moment!
    • In Group A, Alajuelense [CRC] and Plaza Amador [PAN] both have 6 points (although Plaza Amador have played three of their four games). Firpo [SLV] and Diriangén [NCA] have 3 points (Diriangén still owes a bye), and Xelajú is still on 0 points.
    • In Group B, Real Estelí [NCA] and Alianza [SLV] both have 6 points (Alianza still owes a bye); Marathón [HON] has 4 points and Herediano [CRC] has 1 point. Antigua GFC [GUA] has 0 points from 3 games and are thus eliminated.
    • In Group C, Saprissa [CRC] has 9 points from 3 games but is not officially safe yet. Olimpia [HON] has 6 points and Alianza [PAN] has 3 points. Both Mixco [GUA] and UMECIT [PAN] are on 0 points; with UMECIT having played 3 games, they will assuredly not advance.
    • In Group D, Motagua [HON] leads with 7 points from 3 games; Municipal [GUA] has 4 points, FAS [SLV] 3 points, and Cartaginés [CRC] 2 points. Verdes [BLZ], with 0 points in 3 games, is eliminated.
  • If the quarterfinals were seeded right now, the matchups would be:
    • (1) Saprissa v (8) Municipal
    • (4) Alajuelense v (5) Olimpia
    • (2) Motagua v (7) Alianza SLV
    • (3) Real Estelí v (6) Plaza Amador
  • The group stage ends on the midweek of August 26; the quarterfinals are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • In our first matchday:
    • In Group A: Violette [HAI] defeated Defence Force [TRI] 3-0 and Sando FC [TRI] defeated Broki [SUR] 2-1. Delfines del Este [DOM] was idle.
    • In Group B: Salcedo [DOM] defeated Portmore United [JAM] 2-1 and Cibao [DOM] drew Cavalier [JAM] 0-0. (Cibao is currently second on discipline.) Mount Pleasant [JAM] was idle.
  • The semifinals are currently:
    • Violette v Cibao
    • Salcedo v Sando FC
  • The group stage ends on the midweek of September 16; the semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • For the Canadian Championship, we’ll go by the explicit seeding.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup, we’ll use current brackets, but Concacaf Club Rankings to determine the winners.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Toluca beats América in the Leagues Cup final, with Monterrey beating León in the third place game. (This would qualify Pachuca and Tijuana, and elevate Cruz Azul to the Round of 16.)
  • Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Inter Miami, Houston, and LAFC qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus wins the Open Cup over St. Louis.
  • Cavalry wins CPL with Forge qualifying.
  • With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to fourth-seeded CF Montréal.
  • The Central American Cup is won by Alajuelense over Plaza Amador in the final; Saprissa and Motagua make the semifinals; Olimpia and Real Estelí win the play-in round.
  • The Caribbean Cup is won by Violette over Cibao; Sando FC takes third.

The seeding would then look as follows:

  • First round byes: Toluca (1), Cruz Azul (2), Nashville (7), Alajuelense (32), Violette (65)
  • Placed into the bracket: Tigres (3), LAFC (4), Inter Miami (5)
  • Seeded: América (6), Columbus (8), Chivas (10), Vancouver Whitecaps (12), Monterrey (13), Pachuca (14), Pumas (17), Tijuana (26)
  • Unseeded: Houston (28), Olimpia (34), Saprissa (37), CF Montréal (49), Forge (51), Plaza Amador (52), Cavalry (53), Motagua (57), Real Estelí (64), Cibao (84), Sando FC (128)

Our next expected update will be on Monday, August 31. By that point:

  • the group stage of the Central American Cup will be completed
  • we’ll know the semifinalists in the Leagues Cup
  • we’ll have another round of the Caribbean Cup

The following update will likely be on Monday, September 21.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/WJMorris3 — 2 months ago
▲ 16 r/MLS

2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification update (July 20, 2026)

We just got done watching the World Cup Final, with Spain defeating Argentina in extra time. But with domestic play returning this week, it's time (once again) to look at 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • The Central American Cup, Caribbean Cup, and CFU Club Shield have all had their draws!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table (Toluca was second), so they get the bye to the Round of 16.
  • The next highest ranked clubs are Chivas [MEX], who were third in the aggregate table, and América [MEX], who were fifth.
  • For Leagues Cup purposes, the next three clubs in the standings (who could inherit a berth through Leagues Cup) are, in order:
    • Pachuca [MEX]
    • Monterrey [MEX]
    • Tijuana [MEX]

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference.
  • The next two best are San Jose Earthquakes [USA] and Inter Miami [USA]
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Los Angeles FC [USA], who lead both Chicago Fire [USA] and Real Salt Lake [USA] by one point - although both the Fire and RSL have two games in hand.
  • It’s probably too early to consider this, but Nashville’s magic number to clinch a Champions Cup berth is 51.
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Forge FC [CAN] currently leads the table with 31 points from 12 matches; they lead Cavalry FC [CAN] by 4 points and Athlético Ottawa [CAN] by 13 points.
  • Forge's magic number to guarantee Champions Cup participation is 45.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are (almost) set!
    • (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] v (4) CF Montréal [CAN]
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v (winner of Atlético Ottawa [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN])
  • The remaining quarterfinal match is set for August 11; the semifinals for September, and the final for October 21.

#COMPETITIONS YET TO START

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 36 clubs have been determined!
    • All 18 LigaMX clubs will take part.
    • The 18 clubs that made the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs will take part.
  • The Leagues Cup will start on the midweek of August 5, with the final scheduled on September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The draw has been concluded!
    • Group A: Alajuelense [CRC], Plaza Amador [PAN], Xelajú [GUA], LA Firpo [SLV], Diriangén [NCA]
    • Group B: Herediano [CRC], Antigua GFC [GUA], Marathón [HON], Real Estelí [NCA], Alianza [SLV]
    • Group C: Olimpia [HON], Saprissa [CRC], Mixco [GUA], Alianza [PAN], UMECIT [PAN]
    • Group D: Municipal [GUA], Motagua [HON], Cartaginés [CRC], FAS [SLV], Verdes [BLZ]
  • The group stage begins on the midweek of July 29 and ends on the midweek of August 26; the quarterfinals are on the midweeks of September 9 and 16; the semifinals and play-in are on the midweeks of October 21 and 28; the final is on December 2 and 6.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The draw has been concluded!
    • Group A: Violette [HAI], Defence Force [TRI], Sando FC [TRI], Broki [SUR], CFU Club Shield runner-up
    • Group B: Cibao [DOM], Cavalier [JAM], Portmore United [JAM], Salcedo [DOM], CFU Club Shield champion
  • The group stage begins on the midweek of August 5 and ends on the midweek of September 16; the semifinals are on the midweeks of October 14 and 21; the final and third-place matches are on December 1 and 5.
  • The CFU Club Shield bracket has been set!
    • Mount Pleasant [JAM] v All Saints United [ATG]
    • Brittania [ARU] v Weymouth Wales [BRB]
    • Prison Service [TRI] v (SWA Sharks [TCA]/Slingerz [GUY])
    • Robinhood [SUR] v (LA Cleary [LCA]/Roaring Lions [AIA])
    • Baltimore [HAI] v (St. Paul’s United Strikers [SKN]/Helenites [VIR])
    • Metropolitan [PUR] v (North Leeward Predators [VIN]/SCSA Eagles [SMA])
    • Inter Willemstad [CUW] v (Dublanc [DMA]/St. John’s Sports [GRN])
    • Delfines del Este [DOM] v (Elite SC [CAY]/Virgin Gorda United [VGB])
  • The CFU Club Shield will be held in Trinidad and Tobago. The preliminary round is scheduled for July 23-24; the Round of 16 for July 25-26; the quarterfinals on July 28; the semifinals on July 31; and the final on August 2.

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • In any knockout bracket that is explicitly seeded, the higher-seeded club wins every match. That would be the Canadian Championship.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Leagues Cup, the Central American Cup, the CFU Club SHield, and Caribbean Cup, we'll go with highest in the Concacaf Club Rankings.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Toluca beats Tigres in the Leagues Cup final, with Cruz Azul taking third. (This would qualify Pachuca, Monterrey, and Tijuana.)
  • Nashville wins MLS Cup, with Vancouver, San Jose, Inter Miami, and LAFC qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus wins the Open Cup.
  • Forge wins CPL with Cavalry qualifying.
  • With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to fourth-seeded CF Montréal.
  • The Central American qualifiers are Alajuelense (first round bye), Herediano, Olimpia, Municipal, Saprissa, and Plaza Amador.
  • The CFU Club Shield has Mount Pleasant defeating Baltimore in the final.
  • The Caribbean qualifiers are Violette (first round bye), Mount Pleasant, and Cibao.

The seeding would then look as follows:

  • First round byes: Toluca (1), Cruz Azul (3), Nashville (6), Alajuelense (38), Violette (66)
  • Placed into the bracket: Tigres (2), LAFC (4), Inter Miami (5)
  • Seeded: América (8), Vancouver Whitecaps (9), Chivas (10), Pachuca (11), Columbus (12), Pumas (13), Monterrey (15), Tijuana (19)
  • Unseeded: San Jose (29), Herediano (42), Olimpia (43), Municipal (44), Saprissa (46), CF Montréal (50), Forge (51), Cavalry (53), Plaza Amador (54), Mount Pleasant (78), Cibao (83)

Our next expected update will be on Monday, August 3. By that point, we will have results for the CFU Club Shield.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/WJMorris3 — 3 months ago
▲ 52 r/chicagofire+1 crossposts

2027 Concacaf Champions Cup Update (May 25, 2026)

The 2026 Concacaf Champions Cup final has been set. With two Mexican sides set to face off for the title, here in the United States, maybe it's a good idea to focus on the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup qualification.

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in italics have qualified for their regional cup; bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • LigaMX has finished for another season!
  • We have projected seeding for the Central American Cup and the Caribbean Cup!

#COMPETITIONS THAT HAVE CONCLUDED

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • Cruz Azul [MEX] defeated Pumas [MEX] in the 2026 Clausura final, 2-1.
    • Cruz Azul was tops in the aggregate table (Toluca was second), so they get the bye to the Round of 16.
  • The next highest ranked clubs are Chivas [MEX], who were third in the aggregate table, and América [MEX], who were fifth.
  • For Leagues Cup purposes, the next three clubs in the standings (who could inherit a berth through Leagues Cup) are, in order:
    • Pachuca [MEX]
    • Monterrey [MEX]
    • Tijuana [MEX]

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the Supporters Shield table is Nashville SC [USA]; Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] lead the Western Conference.
  • The next two best are San Jose Earthquakes [USA] and Inter Miami [USA]
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Chicago Fire [USA] on goal difference.
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The semifinals are set!
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
  • The semifinals are set for the midweek of September 16; the final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Cavalry FC [CAN] currently leads the table with 17 points from 7 matches; they lead Forge FC [CAN] by 1 point and Inter Toronto [CAN] by 5 points.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.
  • Note that unlike MLS, the Canadian Premier League will be playing through the World Cup.

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The quarterfinals are set! (The top four clubs were seeded; their rankings are listed; the first club listed will play the second leg of the quarterfinals at home.)
    • Cavalry FC [CAN] v (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN]
      • The order of these matches were switched due to scheduling concerns.
    • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v Vancouver FC [CAN]
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v CS Saint-Laurent [CAN]
    • Atlético Ottawa [CAN] v Supra du Québec [CAN]
  • The quarterfinals are set for July 8 and July 12-13, the semifinals for September, and the final for October 21.

#COMPETITIONS YET TO START

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 36 clubs have been determined!
    • All 18 LigaMX clubs will take part.
    • The 18 clubs that made the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs will take part.
  • The Leagues Cup will start on the midweek of August 5, with the final scheduled on September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 20 clubs qualifying for Central American Cup are expected to be in the following distribution:
    • Costa Rica (4): Alajuelense [CRC] (2025 Apertura champion), Herediano [CRC] (2026 Clausura champion), Saprissa [CRC], and Cartaginés [CRC]
    • Guatemala (4): Antigua GFC [GUA] (2025 Apertura champion), Municipal [GUA] (2026 Clausura champion and 2025 Apertura runner-up), Xelajú [GUA] (2026 Clausura runner-up), and Mixco [GUA]
    • El Salvador (3): LA Firpo [SLV] (2025 Apertura champion), CD FAS [SLV] (2026 Clausura champion), and Alianza [SLV]
    • Honduras (3): Olimpia [HON] (2025 Apertura champion), Motagua [HON] (2026 Clausura champion), and Marathón [HON]
    • Panama (3): Plaza Amador [PAN] (2025 Clausura champion and 2026 Clausura champion), Alianza [PAN], and UMECIT [PAN]
    • Nicaragua (2): Diriangén [NCA] (2025 Apertura champion) and Real Estelí [NCA] (2026 Clausura champion)
    • Belize (1): Verdes [BLZ] (2025 Opening champion and 2026 Closing champion)
  • Costa Rica and Guatemala get one extra berth from their statutory 3 because clubs from those two nations made it to the 2025 Central American Cup final.
    • Note that Guatemala apparently assigned their berths to be the league champions and runners-up from both seasons, with any duplicated berths going to the aggregate table.
  • The expected seeding is as follows. Note that by rule, no group can contain more than two clubs from a given country.
    • Pot 1: Alajuelense [CRC], Herediano [CRC], Olimpia [HON], Municipal [GUA]
    • Pot 2: Saprissa [CRC], Plaza Amador [PAN], Antigua GFC [GUA], Motagua [HON]
    • Pot 3: Xelajú [GUA], Cartaginés [CRC], Marathón [HON], Mixco [GUA]
    • Pot 4: Alianza [PAN], LA Firpo [SLV], Real Estelí [NCA], CD FAS [SLV]
    • Pot 5: Diriangén [NCA], Alianza [SLV], UMECIT [PAN], Verdes [BLZ]

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 10 clubs qualifying for Caribbean Cup are expected to be:
    • Cibao FC [DOM] (Dominican Republic champion - 2025 "sprint season")
    • Salcedo [DOM] (Dominican Republic champion - 2025-26 season)
    • Portmore [JAM] (Jamaica champion)
    • Cavalier [JAM] (Jamaica runner-up)
    • Defence Force [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago champion)
    • Sando FC [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago runner-up)
    • Violette [HAI] (Haiti 2025 Opening and 2026 Closing champion)
    • Broki [SUR] (Suriname champion)
    • The champion and runner-up of the CFU Club Shield
      • The Club Shield is expected to see champions of other nations in the Caribbean, as well as the next best clubs from the fully professional nations (the ones who get automatic berths into the Caribbean Cup.) Assuming the standings are true, that should be:
        • Delfines del Este [DOM] (the better semifinalist in the 2025-26 season)
        • Baltimore [HAI] (the runner-up in both the 2025 Opening and 2026 Closing season)
        • Mount Pleasant [JAM] (the third-place winner)
        • Robinhood [SUR] (the runner-up)
        • Prison Service [TRI] (the third-place finisher)
      • I know that /u/RWREmpireBuilder might be able to shed some light on projected champions of the smaller Caribbean nations that might also appear in CFU Club Shield; I would expect the draw to be in the next couple weeks (last year's draw was early June.)
  • The seeding is expected to be as follows.
    • Pot 1: Violette [HAI], Cibao [DOM]
    • Pot 2: Defence Force [TRI], Cavalier [JAM]
    • Pot 3: Portmore [JAM], Sando FC [TRI]
    • Pot 4: Salcedo [DOM], Broki [SUR]
    • Pot 5: The champion and runner-up of the CFU Club Shield

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • In any knockout bracket that is explicitly seeded, the higher-seeded club wins every match. That would be the Canadian Championship, and Leagues Cup, Central American Cup, and Caribbean Cup (after the knockout rounds start).
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, Leagues Cup, the Central American Cup, and the Caribbean Cup, we'll go with highest in the Concacaf Club Rankings for now.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Tigres beats Toluca in the Leagues Cup final, with Cruz Azul taking third. (This would qualify Pachuca, Monterrey, and Tijuana.)
  • Nashville takes MLS Cup, with Vancouver, San Jose, Inter Miami, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus takes the Open Cup.
  • Cavalry takes CPL with Forge qualifying.
  • With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to fourth-seeded CF Montréal.
  • The Central American qualifiers are Alajuelense (first round bye), Herediano, Olimpia, Municipal, Saprissa, and Plaza Amador.
  • The Caribbean qualifiers are Violette (first round bye), Cibao, and Defence Force.

The seeding would then look as follows:

  • First round byes: Tigres (1), Cruz Azul (3), Nashville (6), Alajuelense (39), Violette (66)
  • Placed into the bracket: Toluca (2), Inter Miami (4), América (8)
  • Seeded: Vancouver Whitecaps (9), Chivas (10), Pachuca (11), Columbus (12), Pumas (13), Monterrey (15), Tijuana (20), Chicago (23)
  • Unseeded: San Jose (29), Herediano (42), Olimpia (43), Municipal (45), Saprissa (46), CF Montréal (50), Forge (52), Plaza Amador (55), Cavalry (56), Cibao (83), Defence Force (93)

Our next expected update will be on Monday, July 20. By that point, the Canadian Championship semifinals will be set, and we should have groups for the CFU Club Shield.

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

reddit.com
u/Ben_Holda — 5 months ago
▲ 18 r/MLS

This week marks the start of the semifinals of the Concacaf Champions Cup for 2026. But we can talk about qualifiers for the 2027 Concacaf Champions Cup!

Some notes on conventions:

  • I use trigrams for clubs on first reference, even when we all know who we're talking about.
  • I'm assuming the rules for qualification in 2027 will be the same as in 2026 unless otherwise specified. (The 2027 regulations aren't out yet.)
  • If you see the term "named berth", this means any berth that is not simply given to the next best club in the standings that isn't already qualified.
  • I refer to weekends by their Saturday and midweeks by their Wednesday, unless a specific singular date has been declared.
  • Clubs in italics have qualified for their regional cup; bold have qualified for 2027 Champions Cup; bold and italics indicates a bye directly to the Round of 16.

#WHAT'S NEW

  • LigaMX's regular season has concluded; we have two more clubs in!

#COMPETITIONS IN PROGRESS

##LigaMX

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through LigaMX.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura champions qualify; of these two clubs, the one with the most points between the two tournaments qualifies directly to the Round of 16. The other qualifies for the First Round.
    • Note that if either champion wins Leagues Cup, then both champions qualify for the Round of 16.
  • Both the 2025 Apertura and 2026 Clausura runners-up qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points between the two tournaments, not already qualified, will qualify for the First Round.
    • If any club qualifies through two or more named berths, then an additional club will qualify through points for each excess named berth so held.

###Results

  • Toluca [MEX] defeated Tigres [MEX] in the 2025 Apertura final on penalties.
  • The other two clubs we know are in are Cruz Azul [MEX], who finished top of the aggregate table, and Chivas [MEX], who finished third.
    • Note that in terms of the bye to the Round of 16, only Cruz Azul can take the bye away from Toluca (should Cruz Azul win the Clausura.)
  • The next two in line to collect a berth, should one of the above clubs make the finals, are América [MEX] and Pumas [MEX], in that order.
  • The seedings look like this for the quarterfinals:
    • (1) Pumas [MEX] v (8) América [MEX]
    • (2) Chivas [MEX] v (7) Tigres [MEX]
    • (3) Cruz Azul [MEX] v (6) Atlas [MEX]
    • (4) Pachuca [MEX] v (5) Toluca [MEX]
  • Note that LigaMX does reseed after the quarterfinals, so we could very well have all the berths locked up going into the semifinals.
  • For Leagues Cup purposes, the next three clubs in the standings (who could inherit a berth through Leagues Cup) are Pachuca [MEX], Monterrey [MEX], and Tijuana [MEX].

##Major League Soccer

###Qualification Rules

  • Five clubs qualify for Champions Cup through MLS.
  • The 2026 MLS Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
    • Note that if the MLS Cup champion also wins Leagues Cup, the MLS Cup runner-up qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • Both regular season conference champions qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, the two clubs with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
    • If a club qualifies for Champions Cup through two or more named berths (other than Open Cup champion or Canadian Championship winner), then an additional club with the most points in the regular season, not already qualified, shall qualify for the First Round.
  • Note that these berths are not country-locked; this is a relatively new policy starting with qualification for the 2025 tournament.

###Analysis

  • Leading the West right now is San Jose Earthquakes [USA], and leading the East is Nashville SC [USA].
  • The next two best are Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN] and Los Angeles FC [USA].
  • If one of these were to win MLS Cup, then the last berth would currently fall to Seattle Sounders [USA]
  • The regular season ends on November 7.

##Lamar Hunt U.S. Open Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Open Cup.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Open Cup.
    • Should the Open Cup champion already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Open Cup runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Open Cup champion and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth reverts to the club with the most points in the 2026 MLS season, not already qualified. (The regulations do not say that this berth is country-locked but honestly it should be.)

###Analysis

  • The round of 16 is set!
    • Charlotte FC [USA] v Atlanta United [USA]
    • San Jose Earthquakes [USA] v Minnesota United [USA]
    • New York Red Bulls [USA] v New York City FC [USA]
    • Columbus Crew [USA] v One Knoxville SC [USA]
    • New England Revolution [USA] v Orlando City SC [USA]
    • Chicago Fire [USA] v St. Louis City SC [USA]
    • Houston Dynamo [USA] v Louisville City FC [USA]
    • Colorado Rapids [USA] v Colorado Springs Switchbacks [USA]
  • The final is set for October 21.

##Canadian Premier League

###Qualification Rules

  • Two clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the CPL.
  • The 2026 North Star Cup winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • The 2026 CPL shield winner qualifies for the First Round.
  • Should a club win both named berths, the second-place club in the table will take a berth instead.

###Analysis

  • Forge FC [CAN] currently leads the table with 10 points from 4 matches; they lead Cavalry FC [CAN] by 2 points and Supra du Québec [CAN] by 4 points.
  • The regular season ends on October 25.
  • Note that unlike MLS, the Canadian Premier League will be playing through the World Cup.

#COMPETITIONS YET TO START

##Canadian Championship

###Qualification Rules

  • One club qualifies for Champions Cup through the Canadian Championship.
  • This berth goes to the club that wins the Canadian Championship.
    • Should the Canadian Championship winner already qualify for Champions Cup by other means, the Canadian Championship runner-up qualifies for Champions Cup.
    • If both the Canadian Championship winner and runner-up qualify for Champions Cup by other means, then this berth goes to the Canadian Championship semifinalist with the better performance in the quarterfinal and semifinal rounds, not already qualified.

###Analysis

  • The bracket is set!
    • Pacific FC [CAN] v Cavalry FC [CAN], winner to play (1) Vancouver Whitecaps [CAN]
    • (4) CF Montréal [CAN] v Calgary Blizzard SC [CAN]
    • Vancouver FC [CAN] v Langley United [CAN]
    • (2) Forge FC [CAN] v HFX Wanderers FC [CAN]
    • Inter Toronto FC [CAN] v CS Saint-Laurent [CAN]
    • (3) Toronto FC [CAN] v Atlético Ottawa [CAN]
    • Supra du Québec [CAN] v Woodbridge Strikers [CAN]
  • The first round is scheduled for May 5-10, the quarterfinals for July, the Semifinals for September, and the final for October 21.

##Leagues Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Leagues Cup.
  • The 2026 Leagues Cup champion qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualifies for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 36 clubs have been determined!
    • All 18 LigaMX clubs will take part.
    • The 18 clubs that made the 2025 MLS Cup playoffs will take part.
  • The Leagues Cup will start on the midweek of August 5, with the final scheduled on September 6.

##Central American Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Six clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Central American Cup.
  • The champion of Central American Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The three remaining semifinalists all qualify for the First Round.
  • In addition, two play-in winners (amongst losing quarterfinalists) qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 20 clubs qualifying for Central American Cup are expected to be in the following distribution:
    • Costa Rica (4): Alajuelense [CRC] (2025 Apertura champion), Saprissa [CRC], Herediano [CRC], and the 2026 Clausura champion
      • The last berth goes to Municipal Liberia [CRC] if they win the league and Cartaginés [CRC] if anyone else wins the league.
    • Guatemala (4): Antigua GFC [GUA] (2025 Apertura champion), Municipal [GUA], Mixco [GUA], and the 2026 Clausura champion
      • If one of the above wins the league, then Xelajú [GUA] qualify.
    • El Salvador (3): LA Firpo [SLV] (2025 Apertura champion), CD FAS [SLV], and the 2026 Clausura champion
      • If one of the above wins the league, then Alianza [SLV] qualify.
    • Honduras (3): Olimpia [HON] (2025 Apertura champion), Motagua [HON], and the 2026 Clausura champion
      • If one of the above wins the league, then Marathón [HON] qualify.
    • Panama (3): Plaza Amador [PAN] (2025 Clausura champion), Alianza [PAN], and the 2026 Apertura champion
      • UMECIT [PAN] leads the way to have a berth fall their way, but there are still other clubs eligible.
    • Nicaragua (2): Diriangén [NCA] (2025 Apertura champion) and the 2026 Clausura champion
      • If Diriangén pulls the double, then Real Estelí [NCA] qualify
    • Belize (1): Verdes [BLZ] (2025 Opening champion; no other club can match their total in the aggregate table.)
  • Costa Rica and Guatemala get one extra berth from their statutory 3 because clubs from those two nations made it to the 2025 Central American Cup final.

##Caribbean Cup

###Qualification Rules

  • Three clubs qualify for Champions Cup through the Caribbean Cup.
  • The champion of Caribbean Cup qualifies directly to the Round of 16.
  • The runner-up and third place club qualify for the First Round.

###Analysis

  • The 10 clubs qualifying for Caribbean Cup are expected to be:
    • The playoff champion and runner-up in Jamaica
      • The regular season ends on May 6, playoffs to follow, but I expect the playoffs to be finished by May 23.
    • Cibao FC [DOM] (Dominican Republic champion - 2025 "sprint season")
    • The 2025-26 Domincan Republic champion
      • This berth will be one of Delfines del Este [DOM], Salcedo [DOM], or Atlético Pantoja [DOM]
    • Defence Force [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago champion)
    • Sando FC [TRI] (Trinidad and Tobago runner-up)
    • Inter Moengotapoe [SUR] (Suriname champion from 2025)
    • Violette [HAI] (Haiti champion)
    • The champion and runner-up of the CFU Club Shield
      • The Club Shield is expected to see champions of other nations in the Caribbean, as well as the next best clubs from the fully professional nations (the ones who get automatic berths into the Caribbean Cup.)

#THE DRAW AS IT STANDS NOW

###The Expected Format

It's expected that the draw will be the same format as 2026.

  • The better LigaMX champion, the MLS champion, the Leagues Cup winner, the Central American Cup champion, and the Caribbean Cup champion will be placed into the bracket in ranking order.
  • The top three First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will, likewise, be placed into the bracket.
  • The next eight First Round clubs in the Concacaf Club Ranking will be seeded and randomly drawn into the bracket.
  • The remaining eleven First Round clubs will be unseeded.

###Lazy Projections

I'm going to project the field by making simple assumptions:

  • In any knockout bracket that is explicitly seeded, the higher-seeded club wins every match. That would be the LigaMX Liguilla and the Canadian Championship.
  • In MLS and CPL, the club currently leading the table wins the playoffs and berths still go in standings order.
  • In Open Cup, the Central American Cup, and the Caribbean Cup, we'll go with highest in the Concacaf Club Rankings.

This leads to the following projections:

  • Pumas beats Chivas in the LigaMX Liguilla. (América qualifies as Chivas is already in; this would give Toluca a first round bye.)
  • Toluca beats LAFC in the Leagues Cup final; Nashville takes third. (Toluca winning opens up another berth for LigaMX, which would go to Pachuca; it would also mean that Pumas would take a first round bye.)
  • San Jose takes MLS Cup, with Vancouver, Seattle, Inter Miami, and Chicago qualifying through MLS.
  • Columbus takes the Open Cup.
  • Forge takes CPL with Cavalry qualifying.
  • With the top 2 clubs seeded in the Canadian Championship qualifying by other means, the berth goes to third-seeded Toronto FC.
  • The Central American qualifiers are Alajuelense (first round bye), Olimpia, Herediano, Saprissa, Municipal, and Antigua.
  • The Caribbean qualifiers are Violette (first round bye), Mount Pleasant [JAM] (currently 2nd in Jamaica), and Cibao.

The seeding would then look as follows:

  • First round byes: Toluca (1), Pumas (14), San Jose (27), Alajuelense (38), Violette (67)
  • Placed into the bracket: Inter Miami (2), Nashville (3), Tigres (4)
  • Seeded: Cruz Azul (5), Seattle (6), Inter Miami (7), América (8), Vancouver Whitecaps (9), Columbus (10), Chivas (11), Pachuca (12)
  • Unseeded: Chicago (20), Toronto FC (41), Olimpia (42), Herediano (44), Saprissa (45), Municipal (50), Forge (52), Antigua GFC (55), Cavalry (57), Mount Pleasant (79), Cibao (83)

Our next expected update will be at the beginning of June. By that point, the fields for the Central American Cup and the Caribbean Cup should be mostly set, and we'll have some more results in other leagues!

If you have any questions, please, don't hesitate to ask me here, and I will attempt to answer them to the best of my ability!

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u/WJMorris3 — 6 months ago