u/Wolvshammy

I’ll be happy with $38 million, but my guess is $42 million. Net income I think will show up yoy, but it’s going to be skewed by the warrants. Actual net income yoy will only be up slightly if we are at $42 million.

I expect manipulation of the stock downward for the next day or two and then volume picks up and we ride a decent wave. Last massive spike we had was Aug 2024 in anticipation of the upcoming drugs in 2025. That would mean, the next drugs coming online in 2027 should start to reflect in stock price in 2026.

Your revenue guesses?

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Let's be honest...if you've seen any of my posts on this stock, you know how much I believe in it, but there is no denying that the last year has been rough for the share price. I think we can also be honest about something else though - I probably study this stock more than almost any other person on these subs or other boards, and, so, I thought I would share a pattern I've noticed. I went back 5 years and noticed a dead on trend that happens every single year. MASSIVE volume increases from July to August, that usually ends in large spikes in price through September to November (depending on news releases etc.).

AVERAGE volume increase from July to August - 151%

AVERAGE price increase from July to August - 69%

This is a company that has increased revenue every single year for 5 or 6 years now - 5000% increase in revs over that time. Just filed an ANDA for a $27 Billion drug and they have a 100% approval history on ANDAs. Just settled litigation with Purdue Pharma so there is a clear path to file for generic Oxy in 2027. Just received positive BE results on another generic drug with an ANDA to follow. Actively in discussions with a potential buyer, and IF no buyer comes to the table with an agreeable price, the CFO has spent the last few years prepping for the company to uplist to the Nasdaq. CEO wrapped up the last earnings call a few weeks ago stating that they company had outgrown the OTC and that they are ready to uplist.

Cheers to the longs! See you at the finish line.

This is my favorite earnings call. Maybe just good memories from 2 years ago, but it seems August is usually good for shareholders. Things have been getting better every single quarter since December of 2020. Interested what this quarter brings. Nasrat answered a lot of my questions (I could tell because some of them were word for word what I had sent in), but I forgot to ask ONE thing. He mentioned on the call prior that "IF they held off on the filing of Eliquis that there was a specific reason - and he would talk more on that later." He never brought anything up and I wonder what it was. I loved the last call, but I also have one thing that stood out to me: he seemed to be rushed when he ended the call. Not sure if anyone else noticed that. I couldn't tell if he was irritated (understandable if he was reading the questions from the trolls), or if something happened to come up and he had to end abruptly, or, did he realize he let something slip that he shouldn't have and wanted to just end the call.

Anything that anyone is really focused on for this upcoming call? Any questions you forgot to ask?

I cancelled QBO today. I'm a business owner with 15 businesses. Total savings per month? $1,555. I just started using a new accounting software with unlimited companies allowed for $55 per month, but just to play around with Claude - I was able to do a full year of reconciliation on one of my most complex businesses in about 6 minutes. To fully audit the results and answer the follow up questions it took me a total of about 7 hours. Stock is down 63% over the last year for a reason...

There's only so long a company can shit on it's customers before we listen to how much we are hated.

Link above if positive article on ELTP

In July 2024 Zacks Research initiated coverage of ELTP. They then posted a positive article on August 16th 2024. ELTP went on a run of 2600% over the next 12 months.

Since that time, Elite Pharmaceuticals has increased revenues by 300%, positive BE on an anticonvulsant, got a new FDA approval on a manufacturing site to 5x production runway, and filed an Abbreviated Novel Drug Application (they have an impeccable record on approval rates) on a drug with a $26 Billion IQVIA market size, hired Jeffries as their M&A consultant to seek opportunities to sell the company and have paid off basically all of their debt.

There is one single thing missing from this company - volume. This company isn’t an “if” - it’s a “when”.

CEO stated this month that the company has outgrown the OTC and if they don’t find a buyer at the right price, they will uplist. Within a year they should be on track to grow revenue another 300 to 350% (8% market penetration on new drugs even after accounting for 80% market shrinkage).

One final point. At that point…they will be peeling off enough cash to buyback 50% of outstanding shares over a 6 month period.

Once enough investors get a whiff of the value…the volume problem disappears and this goes parabolic.

DCF value ranges for this company on SimplyWallSt sit at $3+

Ok guys, let's have a little fun for those of you who have been on this train and invested some good money in this stock. If it hits $2.67 there are going to be quite a few millionaires made, and even if it doesn't make you a millionaire, so let's play a fun game of "when it happens". My mom and I used to play "pick" because we didn't have money to buy a lot of things. What will be the first three things you would do or buy if ELTP sells for that price?

Mine:

1. Mom used to be pretty involved in our community. One of the places she would help out at is a school that gave my sister a grant so she could afford to attend. I'm going to set up a fund so that it should have enough money to pay for 2 kids tuition every year.

2. Getting another Ferrari- 2022 Tributo F8 in Rosso Fiorano or Rosso Magma, 2025 296 GTB in Rosso Dino, or 2023 Portofino M in Rosso Portofino. Vanity plate will be "FUDUBRO".

3. Contribute to 10 people in a less wealthy country. I plan to hire 10 lucky individuals and pay them twice as much as the FUDs earn to post nonsense all day. My guys will send DMs to each troll account every day for one year. Should cost me a whopping $730.

What will YOU do with your windfall?

I wrote a post a few months back highlighting revenue per employee and how it was hitting numbers that mega caps were. Rev per employee numbers that Apple, Netflix, etc were putting up. Whether this is an Ai article or not, it’s still analyzing metrics and numbers. To even be IN the conversation with companies this huge highlights just how under the radar ELTP is if you analyze the numbers. ELTP will NEVER be a trillion dollar market cap company. It will never be an Apple, NVDA etc, but think about this ONE important factor. We, as investors, care about percent growth in our portfolios, right? ELTP has a higher chance of going up 500% than almost ANY blue chip right now. WHY? Because those companies already have eyes and analysts on them. To get value, you have to be able to identify an opportunity before everyone else does. All of us should have seen Sandisk coming - it was obvious when you think about it. All of us should see this coming as well - the numbers make it obvious if you think about it.

First off, thanks to Hgils for the help on some of the research for this due diligence rabbit hole. Let's dive.

Ok, ELTP just had a stipulated agreement to drop legal dispute with Purdue, and I posted a few days ago on that. Nasrat Hakim, the CEO of Elite Pharma (ELTP), did a great job navigating that, just like he masterfully navigated ELTP out of any liability during the Opioid lawsuits going around over the last 10 years. He's notoriously conservative and strategic when it comes to litigation. So, WHY the sudden filing when Eliquis still has a patent and this will most likely lead to a lawsuit with them? Glad you asked.

We know that Nasrat is cautious in his approach to litigation. He's an attorney first, so this isn't a surprise. What IS a surpise, is this move on the ANDA filing. First, let's establish part of the ANDA (Abbreviated Novel Drug Application) process. When a company files an ANDA, and another company has an existing patent, the filing company will choose a path; a paragraph III filing or a paragraph IV filing. Paragraph III states they know there is a patent and they will "wait" it out. It's safer and doesn't include an exclusivity of 6 months to sell before any other generic companies can start selling. Paragraph IV carries more risk, but it has the 6 month exclusive upside. The chance that Elite is prepping for litigation here is high and it's not easy to win a paragraph IV. I believe one of the best ways to win P IV is to show that the company has a novel delivery of the drug that doesn't infringe on the existing drug patent.

How about a case where someone won a paragraph IV filing. Actavis filed an ANDA while Endo had a patented drug. Actavis was able to deftly demonstrate that their manufacturing process did not infringe on one of the Endo patents and they were able to secure a rare P IV win which allowed them early access to selling a new drug for the company and shareholders. Now, why am I bringing up a 13 year old case from Actavis? Guess who was a younger sharp VP at the company and helped them navigate this success? Our very own Nasrat Hakim. After that huge win, he used it to launch his move to CEO with ELTP and has earned a great amount of respect in the pharma community because of his track record. This is why I say ELTP is uniquely qualified for this ANDA filing, the timing, and the path to success. He's been there. He's done that.

If you're going to the Super Bowl, are you going to bet on Jim Kelly who got their 4 years in a row and couldn't get it done, or Tom Brady who won more than any other QB? We've got our quarterback and it's game time. It's not 4th and long anymore. It's 1st and goal.

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And you worked every year for 2026 years...Elon Musk would still have $100 Billion more than you have today even if you saved every single penny. To that, I say...get to work peons. You are way behind. King Daddy Elon is unstoppable.

The judge mandated a ruling today and it was VERY interesting. I'll summarize and then give my Good/Bad/Genius playouts here.

Elite agreed to not market/sell generic Oxy until Purdue patent expires in Aug 2027. Both parties agreed to drop the lawsuit with no damages. Elite to modify to a paragraph 3 filing.

The Good: Once again, Nasrat has deftly navigated this whole legal scenario with absolute minimal legal fees. First he let Accord battle out the majority of the lawsuit while he had Elite sit in the background without having to front costs. When Accord's battle was done, he picked up the remaining pieces and negotiated a path for Elite. At first look, it looks neutral since the timeline is a wait time to sell, but there are no risks of damages and future legal fees. Remember, even Accord still has to wait to sell. So, everyone was waiting anyways. This is a minor to major plus in my opinion.

The Ugly: Yes, we DO have to wait for revenues from this drug. That just is what it is. Nothing to sugarcoat on this, but it's not like this wasn't going to be the case anyways. Purdue was going to drag this as far out as possible.

The Genius: This is the part that I don't think anyone is going to think about at first glance. When Elite modifies to a paragraph 3 filing, they can get a tentative approval to sell Oxy based on their ANDA application from years ago. THEN that tentative approval has to sit, BUT it can be final approved the day after the patent expires. Here's where it gets REALLY good. Accord will likely get the "first filer" benefit for 180 day exclusive right to sell while others have to wait. Sounds bad for Elite, right? WRONG. The exclusive right blocks any NEW companies from filing for approval, but Elite already filed. Therefore, just like with the legal fees, Elite would get to tuck right under with Accord as well and get to sell during that 180 day window as well. That is absolute legal genius. This is MY understanding of the law. From the research I've done, Accord and Elite will have a nice big boon as a bonus for their efforts of fighting a juggernaut.

BONUS: This clears legal. Why is that important? When you are buying an asset, you want to make sure there are no "clouds" on title or that surround the business. ESPECIALLY, if a board or bank has to approve financing or acquisition. This would most likely have been a factor for any company looking to acquire ELTP, and now that factor is cleared. Elite will only do that at the right price, and if they don't, they have 2 massive drugs coming in 2027 to ramp revenues up 500 to 600% if they decided to uplist instead.

Congrats, longs!

Wolv

Judge told Purdue to come to an agreement with ELTP or he would recommend ELTP to just file for dismissal. It sounds like the judge is fed up with all of the Sackler family/Purdue BS and wants this case done. Rightly so, since Purdue is basically done now that they have had to transfer Oxy to Knoa Pharma it should mean that Purdue doesn't even have standing in this case over the Oxy patents.

Do you think tomorrow:

1. Purdue finally comes to some sort of an agreement with ELTP over the patent dispute?

2. Purdue fumbles or tucks tails and ELTP just files for dismissal?

3. Stays with their old tactics and tries to find some way to file something that continues to delay the case?

If it ends up being 1, tomorrow, I could see an agreement to drop the case, but ELTP has to wait 5 or 6 months before selling generic oxy and that trash family maybe thinks they can pinch a few dollars out of it? I don't even think that's possible with Knoa, but maybe there is something in there that allows a percentage of revs to still go to the family foundation or a friendly party?

Judge told Purdue to agree to a solution with ELTP or he’d let ELTP file to dismiss case. Thoughts on what you think will happen?

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I've gotten a number of DMs asking about investment advice, stocks I like, or what I do for a living. I figured I'd share an important lesson that I learned, and that if I had learned it earlier it would have both made me money, and more importantly saved me from losses.

For background, I am not a financial advisor. I'm a serial entrepreneur who built a million dollar company in my early twenties, lost everything, went back to school, and then took my lessons from my losses and rebuilt from the ground up. I own multiple companies now, almost all started by myself, but I have also bought and sold companies as well. I don't think school is "necessary" for success and I think you will get out of it what you put in to it, but I'm still very glad I went back regardless of whether or not it contributed to financial successes.

When I was young and I would talk with friends about business and business ideas, we tended to discuss an idea, a concept, or an industry. Whoever had the best business idea, we would then talk about "doing" that idea. It never went anywhere though, and eventually I learned the first part of the "Who" lesson unintentionally. They never followed through, and I would be frustrated that it was all just talk. My success started when I just started building a business for myself. I didn't really put much thought in to it other than giving myself kudos for "doing" it.

It wasn't until I rebuilt everything, had sustainable success, and was then able to invest in other things, ventures, and people that the lesson hit home. The things and people that I invested in that did poorly had NOTHING to do with the idea or the product. They were actually all great. The one common denominator with an investment going poorly was WHO I invested in or with. The wrong people will give up when it gets tough (and it ALWAYS get tough), they celebrate too early, they clock in and clock out. The right people just have that "it" in them. Je na sais quoi is a good term from French that means something along the lines of "that thing you can't quite put your finger on" (I don't speak French, but I'm close enough and if I'm not you get the meaning). The right people don't talk - they execute. They don't celebrate the lead, they celebrate the close. A 40 hour work week is part time for them. And most importantly, they do NOT have "quit" in them. When it gets tough, they dig their heels in further. They will literally do everything in their power to move the world around them instead of being moved by the world when it comes to their business.

How can you apply this to stocks? I'll give you two examples of CEO's (Who's) that I've invested in and one that I got wrong by realizing it too late, and one that I got right by realizing it early. Before I get in to them though, I want to clarify one point about this lesson. This is identifying WHO is a good CEO/partner/friend, that should lead to a good investment. This is NOT identifying who is a good PERSON. I think Steve Jobs was a horrible person and incredibly unethical. I think he was a ruthless thief...but damn was he an incredible CEO.

Case #1: Elon Musk and Tesla

When I first started reading about Elon, something seemed off about him. I thought he was selling BS and I didn't want any part of it. I completely missed Tesla because of that. It wasn't until around 2017/18 that my mind started to change about him. He was being heavily shorted and he made some comment about putting a bed in that Tesla factory until he got production to where he wanted. That got my attention and so I started paying attention more to WHO he was. I know this is Reddit and most people hate him on here, but all I saw after that was someone who would stop at nothing to execute on his vision. I probably should have made a more serious investment in Tesla back in 19/20, but I thought I missed the boat. Luckily, I was able to get in Space X about a year and a half ago. I personally think Space X will explode out of the gates (they just signed a $12 Billion compute deal with Google a day or two ago), but I plan to hold long term. Love him or hate him - I think he will go down as one of the greatest operators in history and executes on plan unlike anything I have ever seen.

Case #2: Nasrat Hakim and Elite Pharmaceuticals

I was working on a client's deal who was heavily invested in ELTP and his shares were around 25 or 26 cents a share back in 2017. I looked at the company and it was just a hot mess. A bunch of hopium around a technology that introduced an agitant to pharmaceuticals that would burn your nose and throat if you tried to crush them while using them to get high. The technology was a good IDEA, but it didn't get FDA approval and they had almost no revenue (I think it was sub $1 million at the time.) The client didn't take the advice and I would just look at it every few months as it dropped from 25 to 20 and eventually all the way down to 3 cents.

Then something amazing happened - ELTP started growing revenue and I believe they became cash flow positive around 2020 or 2021. You never really see that from a company that looks like it is on the verge of bankruptcy - especially a company on the OTC. I started reading everything I could on the C-suite. Nasrat impressed the hell out of me. An attorney first and then CEO, he made some incredibly shrewd decisions. He pulled out of all opioids during the massive litigation that was starting around the country against Purdue and other opioid companies. He changed the direction of the company from an "all or nothing" moonshot, to safe and steady generic manufacturer. Then he started negotiating deals, getting shareholders access to larger and larger revenue producing drugs. Lannet Pharma was once a $3 billion market value client of Elite's (and a hopeful buyout partner), was making a move to cut Elite out of the manufacturing side of their deal. Nasrat pivoted and hired Kirko Kirkov to develop an internal sales team. Kirkov was a brilliant acquisition. Kirkov sold more in 1 month than Lannett sold for Elite in a whole year. In another brilliant move, Nasrat sold off 3 drugs to a competitor for some much needed cash, but, at the time, no one knew the details of that full agreement. Nasrat had put a buyback clause in the agreement for the same price Elite was paid, but since he bought it back after the massive inflation post Covid, he essentially was able to buy all the drugs back for around a 25% discount. Due to all of these factors, I really believed in the "Who", and I started acquiring a massive amount of shares. This time, I was proud to have assessed the "Who" so early that I was able to buy shares at the 3 to 7 cent mark. I did have one MAJOR concern though, and it was a big one. The CFO, Carter Ward. My fear when investing in stocks as opposed to real estate deals is that I can never be 100% sure someone isn't cooking the books. This was a tiny company in a lot of trouble, and Carter left the company. That made me very concerned that what if the reason he left was because there was something he didn't like in the books? I've been in a similar situation myself during a stint as a CFO and I know from that experience that when something doesn't look good in the books, it is NOT a good feel and your goal is to get as far away as possible from problematic books. So, as Elite was going through various CFOs in the aftermath, it was making me feel worse and worse. The golden lining was the final moment for me that made me feel great about my investment. Carter Ward came back to ELTP. No CFO would come back to books that had problems in them. It was actually a better sign than if he had just stayed.

Elite has a major date coming up on June 11th where the judge is pushing for an outcome on a patent dispute between ELTP and Purdue. The judge told Purdue to either work out an agreement or he would recommend Elite to file for dismissal, which I read as, "Games over. Figure it out or I'm dropping the case because Purdue doesn't even exist anymore." Closely following that date, ELTP has their annual earnings which will guaranteed be another record breaking year (they broke the record at the 9 month mark already). Top it off with the filing last week of a $26 Billion drug, which, by the estimates of one of the biggest cynics on this board, would be an approximate increase of revenues of about $600 million and ELTP is sitting pretty for an eventual buyout (they hired Jeffries about 10 months ago for M&A) or an uplisting/Spac merger.

TLDR: Who you invest in matters more than what and I'm high on both Space X and ELTP and for those who haven't seen any of my prior posts, I am heavily invested in both.

Long read, but hope it helps give some of you a perspective that I think is extremely important when putting your money in anything.