u/WorriedAirport1641

I was not ready to accept that IT service will face de-growth in absolute term. Yes, absolute top line will fell. AI models like Claude, Co-pilot, Cursor so on, all will destroy fundamental hours based service delivery business model of Indian IT Services.

Initially I was thinking by AI integration more work will come these and that. But something different way AI is unfolding.

Global players directly getting access to Al models. They giving half finished work. Rest small amount of works ultimately if left done by services companies.

Simply means that higher productivity of Claude and ChatGPT models eating Indian services jobs. In other words higher their coding platform revenue then lesser Indian IT services growth. Indian IT is pure anti-AI global play. Now I am accepting this view point.

Issue doesn’t stop here. 8 million IT jobs there in India. First of all almost rare new job addition to this IT service. Second, almost no change of salary hike possibilities left. In worst case scenario, if there is de growth in the sector then there are massive level of debt taken by this workforce from our Banks, NBFCs, Insurance policies so on. They will get negatively affected from these 8 million top paying jobs. So, IT de growth will derail BFSI stability.

Still hoping these things doesn’t come true. But one after another cards getting open then more and more this film getting real. Let’s see what happens ultimately.

I was not ready to accept that IT service will face de-growth in absolute term. Yes, absolute top line will fell. AI models like Claude, Co-pilot, Cursor so on, all will destroy fundamental hours based service delivery business model of Indian IT Services.

Initially I was thinking by AI integration more work will come these and that. But something different way AI is unfolding.

Global players directly getting access to Al models. They giving half finished work. Rest small amount of works ultimately if left done by services companies.

Simply means that higher productivity of Claude and ChatGPT models eating Indian services jobs. In other words higher their coding platform revenue then lesser Indian IT services growth. Indian IT is pure anti-AI global play. Now I am accepting this view point.

Issue doesn’t stop here. 8 million IT jobs there in India. First of all almost rare new job addition to this IT service. Second, almost no change of salary hike possibilities left. In worst case scenario, if there is de growth in the sector then there are massive level of debt taken by this workforce from our Banks, NBFCs, Insurance policies so on. They will get negatively affected from these 8 million top paying jobs. So, IT de growth will derail BFSI stability.

Still hoping these things doesn’t come true. But one after another cards getting open then more and more this film getting real. Let’s see what happens ultimately.

Let me put something really interesting.

Brazil was a GDP booming country from 1965 to 1972. All we’re looking so great. Massive investment was made to physical infrastructure including roads. Obviously that led to massive demand for automobiles at that time.

Then come to twist in the plot. Saudi Arabia led Arab curtail hit the world. First oil shock came to world. Obviously having massive fleet of automobiles led to hit hard to Brazilian economy. Economic parameters started deteriorating.

Inflation started emerging. Massive external borrowing from State Owned Enterprises (SOE) made. Obviously reason was high oil price.

Now Brazilian politicians were over clever. From 1973 onwards their over confidence from policies led to find alternative fuels. Yes, ETHANOL started focus from here. Massive support to ethanol blending followed. That distorted cropping patterns. These fundamentally changed sugarcane dominated cropping pattern to Brazil. Other food crops were neglected.

First oil shock was not unfortunately end. Then came to second oil shock in 1980. Now real impact of all started.

Now Brazil was different. Population has been increased. More demand for food crops were already there. In that time oil shock added more inflation. Result was that massive hyperinflation hit to Brazil.

Charlie Munger once said that it doesn’t make sense to make ethanol from food crops when there are millions are hungry on the earth. It sounds to our conscience perfectly proper. It simply means if fertile land is there then first priority shall be for growing food crops only. Because there are oil wells there in world for fuel. Make diplomatic arrangements and use that. Rather than neglecting fundamental belly of millions of humans.

Sometimes reasoning is so simple. But over intelligence creates disturbance which affects us for generations.

So called E100 plan of India sounds so ridiculous that any rational minded well read human will never ever think to support it. It’s not because it’s not economically viable, but it’s because all of our conscience doesn’t support it.

At least learn from history of others like Brazil. Otherwise be prepared for something unusual.

In Inflation basked huge component is food products. Now once cropping patterns distorted will massive subsidies and investment for ethanol infrastructure then be prepared for massive inflation event. Because population is not constant. It’s increasing so more and more stomach will demand more foods. There ethanol investments are of multi decade. So they will ultimately lead to hunger and unmanageable inflation.

So big no to E100 !!

We all know Warren Buffet many times claimed that Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham is the best book on investment ever written.

This book was written way back in 1948-49. The world has changed a lot. Many new technological booms witnessed. Many giant corporations created after that. Many bust phases came front.

In today’s time, what is the Best investment book would be as per your view!

We all know Warren Buffet many times claimed that Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham is the best book on investment ever written.

This book was written way back in 1948-49. The world has changed a lot. Many new technological booms witnessed. Many giant corporations created after that. Many bust phases came front.

In today’s time, what is the Best investment book would be as per your view!