u/Yee4614

I couldn’t figure out why Marvell’s XPU business was growing so slowly. Broadcom has a massive 2027 roadmap but Marvell’s is 2028 even though its biggest customers are the most desperate for XPUs. So, I thought about it and it became clear the issue is TSM capacity.

The idea here is that Intel could come online with A14/A18. This is questionable if Intel can deliver and A14 is likely 2028 but A18 could hit in 2027. This could greatly increase Marvell’s revenue as Microsoft is desperate for XPU production as is Amazon. The Amazon situation is a bit less clear because of the Trainium 3 fumble. However, this should be resolved and Marvell should win trainium 4 which would be what they would likely use Intel to create.

I don’t know how likely it is Intel can execute but if they can Marvell’s trip to 1T is much much faster than expected. Let me know if I got anything wrong

Can someone explain the actual data center business? I don't really understand it and it is frustrating seeing NBIS/COR/IREN become some of the biggest businesses in the world so I'm assuming there is a clear vision but I don't really understand it.

So, the basic tenants make sense - build a data center and sell compute and reinvest. We are in the hypergrowth phase before there is a transition to profitability. I'm with it up to here and the valuation makes sense with the model considering the growth.

However, I looked into the financials to get a sense of how viable this approach is. The financials are brutal. It does look like operating leverage is improving as revenue to depreciation looks to be dropping but it is still an astounding amount. This is to be expected and I'm sure there is a pathway forward with this.

The part I don't get is how SGA and RD can be so high. The SGA is particularly alarming because it is unbelievably high and you are probably selling the most in-demand commodity on earth right now. This should be the world's easiest sell. Also, what sort of RD is occurring that it would make up such a large portion of the company's revenue?

So, I'm just really confused. I am sure there is a plan to justify the multiples and the excitement but I can't find anything with quick searches. I'm sure it's there but can someone just explain what is going on and what's management's plan?

This is my first time buying an option (CMPX). I like the idea of options but I didn't want to dip my toe in since I don't understand them yet. However, I bought my first option because I thought it was a layup due to bots screwing up and the stock losing 60% of its value for no reason. This, in my mind, would lead to a massive repricing and free money. Spoiler: I'm an idiot. Here is what I don't understand.

Option Value Decline:

This morning my options were down 30%. This makes sense as earnings passed and the stock was down 5% at the time. However, after close the IV increased from 110-120 to 132 and my chance to profit went from around 20-25% to 70%. At the end of the day, the stock ended up 1 cent higher than the day before but my call's value dropped 16%. I'm guessing maybe this is Robinhood glitching because my Greeks don't make sense either

Delta: -0.5032, Gamma: -0.9410, Vega: -0.0013

2. I knew the short interest was high (20%+). However, I figured this was because this is a low volume stock so it would take a little time to leave after a massive payday. However, when I checked the orderbooks today we were in a full out war. The reason the stock dropped 5% when I woke up is a seller flooded the open with sells and I kept seeing orderbook games on the sell side. I don't understand why shorts would still be going after this company.

- You won. The company dropped 60% so you already made a buttload of money and the spike in volume would make it easy to exit your short.

- There isn't much upside risk. The MC is $360M while the company has 195M in cash (reported today).

- The downside risk is immense. The phase 3 data that triggered the crash was misunderstand and is actually very positive. There are a ton of new buyers.

3. The max pain was $2. It's now $3. This means there was a massive amount of puts at over $2 purchased in the last 48 hours. Why on earth would anyone be buying a $3 put? On top of that, long interest has exploded so this needs to be done at huge volumes. This seems counterproductive as now the market makers is going to go against the shorts.

If the stock rises to like $2.20, I would guess that would trigger a lot of forced liquidations shooting us up real fast putting the $3 max pain at risk since you have a ton of buy-side momentum.

The final thing that is confusing is the volume is so high. This stock traded at 2-3M per pre crash and post crash it is at 10-13. The options expire the 15th so I would expect explosions then but why 10 days ahead of time?

So, yeah, I'm very confused. Can someone please help explain this to me?

This is a true value play. The trading bots got confused by the headline and tanked the price. This company is trading at its cash value.

Humans realize they screwed up. The analyst kept their predictions unchanged and the COA loaded up on the stock.

Here is an AI slop summary. Basically, the drug worked. They gave it to the control group.. it worked again. This threw off the data.

CMPX reported results from its COMPANION-002 Phase 2/3 trial for tovecimig in biliary tract cancer.

The good news

The drug worked on disease control metrics:

• Progression-Free Survival (PFS): Patients on tovecimig + paclitaxel stayed progression-free 4.7 months vs 2.6 months for control.
• Response rate improved: Tumor response was 17.1% vs 5.3%.

Those are statistically meaningful signals.  

The bad news (what the market cared about)

The trial did not show a clean Overall Survival (OS) benefit, which is often the gold standard in oncology.

Why?

Because 54% of the control patients crossed over into the treatment arm during the trial. That contaminated the survival comparison.