u/alt_account_178

Tengo sentimientos encontrados respecto a la intervención estadounidense.

Soy de izquierdas, pero me opongo profundamente a la cleptocracia cubana y desprecio a quienes defienden a Cuba como una utopía socialista.

Creo firmemente que una liberalización comercial cuidadosa, el establecimiento de la propiedad privada y la libre empresa permitirían al pueblo cubano construir su riqueza y transformar Cuba en un gran país, aunque sea con un reinicio complejo.

Mi problema, sin embargo, es el siguiente:

1. No confío en la administración Trump. Desde que asumió el poder, Trump ha seguido un camino de centralización política, intervencionismo extranjero y puro clientelismo político. Una Cuba reconstruida por Trump difícilmente sería una democracia plena basada únicamente en todo el dinero que pudiera extraer de la isla. Mi temor se basa en el precedente de Puerto Rico, que Estados Unidos aún trata como un basurero, sin derecho a un voto real y gobernado por una élite no electa.
2. Además del propio Trump, está el problema de la élite nacionalista cristiana estadounidense. Nuevamente, tengo serias dudas de que estas personas reconstruyan Cuba según los principios de una democracia libre, y temo una Cuba que haya cambiado la hoz y el martillo por la cruz y la espada.
3. Dudo que Trump realmente quiera derrocar al régimen o simplemente someterlo, como hizo con Venezuela, reorientando la dictadura sin un cronograma definido para la democracia. (Este escenario aún sería parcialmente beneficioso para el pueblo cubano, ya que conduciría a la apertura de los mercados y a una mejora en la calidad de vida, pero a largo plazo, terminaría como el "escenario de Puerto Rico").
4. Dudo de la viabilidad financiera del proyecto. Estados Unidos tiene un déficit absurdo, agravado por la crisis en el Estrecho de Ormuz. Esto sin siquiera considerar la fragilidad de la economía estadounidense (el dólar se está devaluando frente al real brasileño), que está sobreexpuesta al sector de la IA. Esto me lleva a temer un escenario en el que el régimen caiga, pero Estados Unidos no tenga el dinero para reconstruirlo o simplemente abandone el proyecto, dejando a Cuba "huérfana".
5. Si el régimen cubano cae de la noche a la mañana, no es descabellado pensar en un escenario similar al de Haití o Colombia, donde antiguos miembros del régimen y delincuentes comunes creen y defiendan feudos.
6. Dadas las controversias en torno a la IA, no creo que sea imposible que, una vez en manos estadounidenses, Cuba se utilice para albergar los centros de datos de IA que Estados Unidos está tan desesperado por construir. Inicialmente, esto podría parecer positivo, pero hay una razón por la que los propios estadounidenses protestan en contra.

Estas son mis opiniones como izquierdista brasileño que nunca ha estado en Cuba. Sin duda, mi perspectiva es limitada y quiero saber qué piensan los cubanos de verdad.

¿Qué futuro le gustaría, siendo realista, a Cuba?

¿Qué temores tiene respecto a un cambio de régimen?

¿Confía en que Estados Unidos desempeñe un papel positivo?

¿Qué es lo que los extranjeros suelen malinterpretar sobre Cuba?

Esquema de propina para sair da prisão e até cometer crimes.

I believe that very soon, the war in iran will restart for a very simple reason: both sides are ideologicaly, pragmaticaly and psychologically incapable of making concessions.

Iran

- ideologically: their greatest enemy launched a mortal attack against them, from their (islamofascist) perspective, they're just defending themselves and making justice.

- pragmatically: iran was in a bad state before the war, which was very expensive in financial and human terms. As such, any deal that allows the US to keep in the region or don't provide a way for iran to rebuild fast will simply enable future action to overthrow the regime. As such, Iran is incentivized to fight while they still have an army and force the US into maximum concessions by burning the world economy.

- psychologically: the IRGC is evil, but evil people still have friends, husbands and children. Thousands of those died in an attempt to destroy their (islamofascist elite) lifestyle. They're angry, very angry. On top of that, the IRGC has been always taken by hubris as demonstrated by the iranian imperial project (aka: "the axis of resistance").

Israel

- ideologically: Iran wants to destroy them and vice-versa.

- pragmatically: Israel spend too much political capital, propaganda and international goodwill to not finish this fight. Even traditional politicians and allies (like South korea) are starting to turn against them. Their image is in the toilet, specially with the average american and even among non-christian fundamentalist MAGA. Retreating now is accepting that all these sacrifices were for nothing.

- psychologically: Netanyahu bet his life's work on this project and he is an old man. He can't afford to have his legacy being tarnished like this.

US

- ideologically: according to "clash of civilizations" this is the inevitable struggle of civilizations. According to "interpretations" of the book of revelations, this is the inevitable struggle between the forces of god and the forces of "gog and magog". According to american exceptionalism, the US has the right to do whatever it wants. According to anti-nuclear plorifelation doctrine, NO. According to common sense, the US military should be better than that.

- pragmatism: any result where iran doesn't make any major concessions AND give up on the strait is a not only a complete defeat for the US, but showcases it's limitations and puts not only in check its position as dominant world power, but also the very petrodollar system, as china has been keen on exploiting the discontent in the GCC to it's favor. On top of that, they must fight while they still have an army as justifying another such military adventure will be nearly impossible in the coming years.

- psychologically: Trump is a "winner" and "winners" don't loose. They don't know how to loose. This is worsened by his position as member of the american elite, as (for decades at this point) the american elite has know no limit to it's powers, resulting in a "bailout culture", as we can see now with OpenAI lobbying for a government bailout of it's bad investments. The truth is, for generations, the US has been invencible and this has made them believe that, no matter what they do, the government/military can fix and they can walk free.

Because of all this, I think negotiations are structurally designed to fail. Public diplomacy may continue, but the real objective is probably strategic repositioning: intelligence operations, proxy warfare, cyberattacks, covert action, and preparation for the next phase of conflict rather than a genuine settlement.

Democracy

Estou procurando livros sobre a história brasileira recente, em especial sobre a segurança pública e corrupção.

Óbviamente, esse tema é extremamente carregado e enviesado, com todos os lados bombardiando a internet com suas versões da narrativa, então gostaria de livros mais objetivos ou ao menos, opções que anulem uma à outra (um bom livro de direita e um bom livro de esquerda).