u/amirdaraee

I got a T90 Pro omni last week, and I’m generally pleased with it. However, when it comes to cleaning, it seems to be missing a lot of spots, like in the picture. You can see it’s skipped the top right corner (I think because there’s a curtain there), and it also skips a lot of edges to avoid bumping into things. My old robot, which didn’t have a camera and only used lidar, did a better job in these situations. Is there any way to fix this?

Hey everyone,

I’m a programmer, but I’m pretty new to sports betting / prediction markets / football modeling. I made this mostly as a learning project, not because I think I cracked World Cup betting or anything like that.

The site is here: https://wcformbook.com

Repo is here: https://github.com/amirdaraee/world-cup-predictions

Basic idea is: I try to model World Cup 2026 matches, turn the probabilities into “fair prices”, then compare them with Polymarket prices to see where my model disagrees with the market.

What I built so far:

- Dixon-Coles / Poisson style model trained on international matches

- time decay, friendly match downweighting, shrinkage, home advantage, and squad value added as a prior

- 100k tournament simulations for futures like winner / reaching later rounds

- live-ish Polymarket price comparison

- match pages with markets like 1X2, totals, BTTS, spreads, exact scores, halves, first to score, corners, etc

- daily snapshots so if the model is bad, it’s public and I can’t just silently change it later

Some things I already know are weak:

- no injuries or expected lineups

- no suspensions / weather / motivation

- I’m probably missing lots of football context

- some Polymarket books are thin, so the “edge” might not be real after spread/slippage

- I’m still learning how to properly judge calibration vs accuracy

Also, just to be clear, the LLM is not making the predictions. I used it more for helping write some analysis/commentary on the site. The actual probabilities come from the model/simulations.

I’d really appreciate criticism from people who know this field better than me. Especially around:

- is Dixon-Coles a sane starting point for international football?

- what are the common beginner mistakes in sports betting models?

- how do I avoid fooling myself with backtests?

- should I compare my raw model probability directly to Polymarket prices, or is that too naive?

- how should I think about bet sizing / Kelly / correlated exposure?

- what would you improve first if this was your project?

Not trying to sell picks or say this is profitable. Mostly I’m trying to learn and would love blunt feedback on the approach, assumptions, and where I’m probably being dumb.