Vladimir Putin’s goals did not change since the early weeks of 2022. He is still determined to subjugate Ukraine one way or another whatever it takes, and however long it takes. He views it as his life mission and his ultimate historical legacy as a Russian leader.

One could even argue that he will never change his ambitions. As long as he is in charge and alive - which goes hand in hand - the war will continue. But the forms it might take depends on what he is allowed to achieve. I see four main ways how the conflict will develop in the future.

The two obvious ones are the extremes: total Ukrainian military defeat and total Russian defeat. For now, these seem the most unlikely. Not that either of them are impossible, history always reserves the right to surprise everyone. An event can trigger anytime that nobody sees coming and will dramatically change the future.

A Total Ukrainian Military Defeat is Difficult to Imagine

Kyiv will always have foreign backers. As long as that is the case Ukrainian society is unlikely to lose the will and means to resist. If the country ended up under threat of being stream rolled by Russia, it is almost certain that countries that fear of being next: the Baltic states, the Nordic countries, and Poland would increase support. Most of the rest of Europe will also always see this as a critical issue. Their incentives has only strengthened in the past years as Ukraine developed technologies indispensable for European defence. The alternative would be a situation where Russia ends up controlling those technologies.

For a total Ukrainian military defeat these countries would need to be destabilized to a level of no longer being able to provide assistance, or an active military involvement from an external great power. The two countries that could theoretically make that happen would be China or the US. Even if that were to occur it’s difficult to see the rest of Europe just sitting idle.

Still, even this would not be the end of the conflict. Ukrainians would carry on resisting under occupation and in exile in any way they can. As much as Putin made this war his historical mission, Ukrainians today made it part of their identity to resist Russia. The war would evolve into a bloody occupation with guerilla warfare that could last generations, bleeding Moscow dry.

Similarly, a Total Russian Military Defeat Seems Unlikely

The potential of this outcome makes (way too) many global actors nervous. Sadly this applies to most western leaders as well. They fear the uncertainty and chaos of a disintegrating “nuclear superpower”, and they might start pushing in the other direction if this became a real possibility.

Great examples of this phenomenon were the Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever saying the quiet part out loud, or the most powerful non-state actor in the world, Elon Musk stopping Ukrainian offensives multiple times. But even Poles showed repeatedly that they are ready to start kicking Ukraine if they feel it is doing too well and might become too dominant in the region.

Still, in my opinion a total Russian defeat has a far higher chance of happening than a Ukrainian, and much more likely than how most serious military analysts believe. It takes a long time for repressive regimes to collapse in a short time. Both recent events and Russian history is full of such examples. The Assad regime vanished rapidly after a nearly 14 years long civil war that seemed like a stalemate. The Soviet Union collapsed unexpectedly at the end of the Cold War, same as the Russian Empire in the midst of World War I.

More interesting are the two more likely outcomes.

Ceasefire in the Next 1–4 Years

This is the most probable scenario. Putin would need heavy pressure or a deal good enough that Ukraine also accepts to go this way. He either needs to be convinced that continuing the war became existentially threatening to him, or that a ceasefire will put Ukraine in a position where it would be weaker than if the war continues. The latter - he hopes - could set up an easier time for Russia to take political or military control of Kyiv in the coming years.

In this case, Russia would de facto keep the territories it occupies, but it’s nearly impossible that Ukraine or the EU would legally accept it. Even other countries across the globe would be highly unlikely to do so. Very few states are interested in opening Pandora’s box of redrawing borders. Interestingly enough, in the US, territorial recognition lies solely with the President. It is not impossible that President Trump would do such a thing, which could open the door for many others to follow suit.

Either way, Ukraine would never formally or politically accept it. Its foreign and domestic politics would be hyperfocused in the coming years and decades on taking them back, similar to how French and German foreign policy were led by the sentiment of revanchism after 1871 and 1920 respectively. They would have the EU’s institutional support, and that of most European governments as well.

At the same time Russia, as long as Putin is in charge will not be content with this outcome. He wants to restore the idealized state of Moscow’s geopolitical position, the one he grew up in, and believes it is its right: Russian dominance over not only the ex Soviet Union, but all the Central-Eastern European space as well.

There is a high chance that this would merely be a pause with continuing diplomatic, economic, and covert pressures on Ukraine and Europe. In many ways, this will lead to a similar outcome as the fourth scenario.

A “Forever War”

The active hostilities might become an increasingly normalised endless conflict of varying intensity. This would be funded by Europe, fought and endured by Ukraine, and increasingly outsourced to robots and mercenaries.

Ukraine is, has been, and most likely indefinitely going to be struggling with manpower constraints against Russia. Theoretically, Moscow will always be able to mobilize more manpower. The war - and history - proved that Russian society is extremely insensitive to human losses. As long as the Kremlin thinks it can win a war by throwing meat at the problem, it will do so relentlessly.

Ukraine in contrast neither has the population nor the indifference to death and suffering. This does not mean that its society won’t be ready to absorb enormous losses to protect its independence, but it will always be a high priority to minimize losses. Therefore, Kyiv needs to develop new tactics to preserve Ukrainian lives as much as possible. Currently, there are two available methods to achieve that.

One general strategy is to gradually outsource the war to unmanned objects. Most famously aerial drones that are often operated far away from the frontline, even sometimes in home office type environments, and increasingly guided by Artificial Intelligence.

This strategy doesn’t end with aerial warfare. Underwater drones effectively beat the Russian Black Sea navy, and forced it into hiding in the port of Novorossiysk. At the same time Ukraine started deploying “robots” on the battlefields, hoping to replace human infantry with them as much as possible. In fact, they already captured enemy positions using only these unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) for the first time in history.

With the technological advance in robotics, it’s only a matter of time before these systems will replace humans on the battlefield. This war will go down in history as the first conflict where they are deployed as a meaningful fighting force although for now, it remains unclear how effective they can be in the near future.

Robotics, drones, AI, these all can tap into Ukraine and Europe’s advantage over Russia. Technological development, production capacity, and capital to produce them. Russia can field more meat on the battlefield, but it is unlikely to ever be able to outproduce or outspend a militarily awakened Europe focused on high-tech warfare.

Still, today humans cannot be replaced on the battlefield. These innovations are in development with enormous potential, but in the foreseeable future Ukraine will need manpower.

Despite popular belief - amplified by Russian disinformation -, Ukraine does not have a lack of men of fighting age. The country is unlikely to run out of people. There is still enormous untapped potential. Issues with mobilization is a systematic political problem rather than a demographic one. Something that can and has to be resolved.

Still, it would be more comfortable to outsource the job as much as possible. Ukraine’s previous Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov published his plans a couple of months before his controversial removal, to fill 30-50% of assault and infantry positions with foreign mercenaries. According to Michael Kofman, arguably the best public analyst of the war in Ukraine, this goal is not entirely far-fetched.

Fedorov might have been removed from his position, but his ideas will carry on to his successor, and will continue to be a topic in the military leadership and Ukrainian society.

Conclusion

Whatever the future brings, both Ukraine and its supporters must be prepared for each scenario. And crucially, they need to signal that to Russia. Hence, robots production + mercenary recruitment on Ukrainian side, and it’s Europe’s responsibility to manifest and showcase long-term determination. Countries which treat it as an existential war must create automatic mechanisms that supports Ukraine year by year no matter what. This must be followed by a common EU mechanism, and an EU reform for an associate membership for Ukraine.

The loan passed in Brussels this year to support Ukraine is only valid for two years. This sends the message to Putin that he can outlast European resolve. And the prospect that Ukraine can remain in indefinite limbo between EU membership and isolation signals lack of determination and weakens one of Ukraine’s greatest assets, it’s societal morale.

Putin and Russia must recognise that continuing the war is futile, the determination to resist will not break, and that he has no actionable means to achieve victory on the battlefield. Until then, he is likely to escalate. Both in Europe and in Ukraine.

In Europe with increasing covert actions, sabotages, disruptions, and the escalation of his ongoing Hybrid War. In Ukraine, he will probably have to eventually pull the trigger on another wave of mobilization as a last-ditch effort. Only when that fails to produce results he might be ready for a ceasefire.

But for Russia to be ready for peace, Putin must go.

Apple today announced changes to its business terms for apps in the European Union, following close collaboration with the European Commission. These changes resolve Apple’s disagreements with the Commission over business terms and alternative distribution. They also reduce complexity by moving every developer that distributes apps in the EU to a single set of business terms. Developers can sign the new terms today, and changes will go into effect on October 1.

Under the new terms:

• For App Store apps using Apple In-App Purchase, the commission will be 26 percent. For the vast majority of developers, including those in the App Store Small Business Program, Mini Apps Partner Program, or Video Partner Program, and for auto-renewing subscriptions after their first year, it will be 15 percent.
• For App Store apps using alternative payment processing, the commission will be 20 percent. Developers in the programs mentioned above will pay a reduced rate of 10 percent.
• For App Store apps that link out of the app to complete purchases, the commission will be 15 percent. Developers in the programs mentioned above will pay a reduced rate of 10 percent.
• For apps distributed via alternative app marketplaces or the web, Apple will charge a 5 percent Core Technology Commission.

What title is saying...
Since Germany is not doing it and it IS an anti-democratic party, is it possible for the eu to at least ban esn from their parliament?
sry if the question seems stupid, I don't know anything about the particular rules and guidelines.

Dutch article. Translation in comments.

The BRICS group of countries has doubled down on its critique of the EU’s new carbon tax describing it as “unilateral, punitive, discriminatory and protectionist”. 

The statement, which followed a meeting of environment ministers of the BRICS nations, including India, China, Russia, South Africa and Brazil on Tuesday (18 August), also included demands for more financial support for developing countries to cope with the effects of dangerous climate change. 

The Tiny Spanish Territory of Ceuta Is Grappling With a New Migrant Crisis

An estimated 5,000 people are living in open-air, makeshift camps that have popped up across the exclave of Ceuta

By 

Benoit Faucon | Photography by Imane Djamil for WSJ 

Aug. 18, 2026 at 10:00 pm ET

CEUTA, Spain—An abandoned warehouse complex overlooking the Moroccan border in this tiny Spanish territory has become a squalid village, with hundreds of migrants living under sheets tied to the sides of buildings and sleeping on broken-down cars and ripped sofas.

Three weeks ago, more than 72,000 migrants poured into Ceuta, overwhelming authorities and causing many residents to close up their shops and stay inside their homes. Seeing little hope of making it to continental Europe, most of the migrants left within days. But thousands who stayed behind, refusing to leave, are creating a humanitarian crisis in the Spanish exclave—and a growing headache for local residents.

Ceuta Mayor Juan Jesus Vivas says as many as 5,000 migrants stayed—a large number compared with the territory’s population of 83,000. Makeshift migrant camps have popped up across Ceuta, one of Spain’s territories in North Africa.

Now, anger is growing among the locals in Ceuta, many of whom blame the government for not doing enough to take control and bring an end to what they see as a dangerous situation for them and the migrants. Some in the territory, which is home to a mix of Christians and Muslims, have sought to help feed and care for the mostly Moroccan migrants. Many say they no longer feel safe with groups of young migrants roaming the streets.

“I have been deprived of my human rights to freedom and security,” said Immaculada Heras Carmona, on the verge of tears. She and her friends go jogging in groups for their safety. “What is the army doing? I am not against immigration. But it’s out of control.”

The 50-year-old Heras Carmona, who works at Ceuta’s University Hospital, said emergency services there are overwhelmed and struggling to provide care for the migrants. As she spoke on the beach in the city center, three wounded migrants confirmed her claim.

One had a festering cut on his shin that he said he got from a fall on the rocks near the beach. Another had a swollen knee and was struggling to walk. He said he had called an ambulance, but it had never turned up.

A community leader in Ceuta, Sabah Hamad, has been collecting donations to feed hundreds of migrants a day. She usually starts her mornings stepping around dozens of young men who sleep outside her home hoping for food or a fresh shower. “This city is sick,” she said of the conditions.

The Spanish government says it is responding to the crisis. On Monday, it said it would open space to house 1,500 migrants in a parking lot, a playing field and an equestrian center.

Elma Saiz, the minister for inclusion, social security and migration, said food and basic healthcare had been provided daily to 4,000 migrants by the Red Cross. She said the government, in conjunction with the international organization, had allocated 6.5 million euros of emergency funds to cope with the new arrivals. She also acknowledged the great work that had been done by community organizations in Ceuta to assist the migrants.

Migrants first poured into Ceuta in late July after messages circulated on social mediasaying the border would be open and suggesting that a recent Spanish Supreme Court ruling would make it more difficult for the government to return them. Tens of thousands scaled fences and swam around a breakwater separating Moroccan territory from Spain.

At least 90 people died in the rush into Ceuta. Videos of the border being overrun went viral and prompted France to strengthen border security. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni threatened to suspend the Schengen rules that allow for the free movement of people and goods within the European Union.

The migrants were halted in Ceuta, which is subject to special border checks as a part of the rules regulating Spain’s territories in North Africa. The Spanish government appeared to quickly get control of the situation, working with Morocco to send tens of thousands of the migrants back almost as quickly as they had arrived.

But they appear to have little answer for what to do with the thousands of migrants who have refused to go back. The migrants, in interviews, said they believe the Spanish government is simply leaving the migrants to fester in the camps in the hopes that they will give up their quest to make it to continental Europe and return home.

Many of the migrants staying in Ceuta are young Moroccans who say they faced limited opportunities for better jobs and lives in their native country. Some had jobs and were highly educated. The destitution they are now facing in Ceuta is a new experience for them, but they say the hardship is worth it for the chance at entering Europe.

Hakim Yahya, 20, said that before he came to Ceuta, he had tried unsuccessfully to join a Spanish soccer club. He said he stays below the radar by keeping a stylish haircut. “They think I am a hipster,” he said of the police.

Most of the migrants in Ceuta are Moroccan, although some are from other parts of Africa. One 16-year-old who declined to give his name said he was from the West African nation of Guinea. He had ended up in Morocco after crossing through al-Qaeda-held areas of Mali. When he saw the wave of migrants crossing in late July, he joined in.

Most of the migrants said they had no plans to leave Ceuta—unless they were headed for continental Europe. Community leaders in Ceuta said if the stalemate isn’t resolved soon, it will put the safety of both the migrants and residents here at risk.

Young women who are part of the migrant population are particularly vulnerable. Abdellah Mustafa, who runs a neighborhood association in an Arab-dominated area of Ceuta, has set up a small camp for women, protected by 5-meter-high barriers. He said he has heard several accounts from migrants of alleged sexual assaults.

Hamad, the community leader, says she is reaching a breaking point. “It breaks your heart when you see a person who has been waiting for two hours, and you have nothing to offer,” she said. “We can’t go on like this. Moroccans, they have to get out.”

Turkey has outstripped the EU to become Europe’s largest producer of solar modules with a current module production capacity of 13.2 GWp, according to a tracker by quality assurance firm Sinovoltaics.