u/bigbaffler

Not sure if this is a meme or just good based on small sample size. New to the champ so I can´t really tell.

I´ve seen a guy rushing Lichbane/Protobelt with Comet/Scorch. I tried it myself and in lane it feels weird without the attack speed but your W+AA / AA+Q+AA obviously hit like a truck.

Proto offers good playmaking options, too but I feel like I´m trading mid/late-game damage for an early game spike that isn´t that relevant outside of lane.

I liked it into Irelia or other high mobility champions where you can´t get more than one auto off anyways.

Thoughts?

Masochists asemble!

I´m sure there are a couple of freaks in this sub who just enjoy mechanically hard champions so I´m wondering if someone who plays GP and Azir can shed some light on the differences as well as difficulties of each champion.

I´m a long time GP enjoyer but only have picked him back up recently due to lack of Essence Reaver (I played Zed instead). Now that Zed is nerfed again and GP probably waiting for his own nerf, I´ve played Azir for the very first time ever and I think that these two are quite similar in their playstyle.

Zone control, teamfighting/AoE centered and hard punished when stepping out of line but kinda always useful, even when behind.

I have to say, tho, that I find the micromechanics a lot more difficult on GP, barrel timings take forever to learn and also are pretty ping dependend especially vs ranged. One part super inconsistent and you have to be extremely precise with your clicks so you actually hit the barrel and not a minion when you´re in between casters. Also no dash and easily ganked and run down when you fk up the wave.

I´ve played Azir in a couple of normals mid and top and surprisingly I have more success on him, I die less and do more damage, especially because I can just default to split pushing when my team is ass and can just escape with WE when the avengers come...with GP I usually trade kills and die. I didn´t do a single shuffle engage yet or the WEQ glide, just basic stuff with soldier placement and Q.

So for me, the skill ceiling is a tad lower on Azir, but probably because I´m used to zone control champions. Early game is equally shit for both champs and you also can´t skirmish at the first crab either. I feel like I have a lot more options mid/late on Azir, tho. Somehow this guy is good in every situation.

I wonder if someone plays both champs and can comment. I feel like I´m missing a huge part of why Azir is hard to play simply because I´m not limit testing (yet).

I love GP, but I feel like he´s gonna get bonked with the nerf hammer pretty hard and then he´s basically the master of "I did the most damage but could not carry" for everyone below Solarbacca.

Thanks

I´m re-reading "world of oil derivatives" by greg newman for shits and giggles and stumbled upon quote "...it is still very unlikely to go much beyond -$5bbl to +$5bbl" referring to the spot/M1 timespread.

I´m not talking about how wrong he is and how everyone got smoked in selling M1/M2s or frontend flies after the SoH incident, I rather wonder how he would come up with these numbers?

Yes you can chart it or calculate a return distribution and just skip the outliers but is there a hard economical cap/floor that you can calculate?

I´d never thought about that (BECAUSE it works until it doesn´t), but I come from the rates world and there actually are defined soft (like the magical 2% barrier) and hard caps (curve arbs via timespreads) that you can lean on.

In commodities I imagine that there is a floor for timespreads since storage is finite and no cap since demand can exceed supply by an infinite amount, but that is just a gut feeling/generalized truism that has no value in the decision making process.

I mean even if there are soft caps the implications would affect not only how timespreads are traded but also how convexity plays are priced (flies, strips and condors).

Are there some rule of thumb like e.g. WTI timespreads are never lower than USGC geo-arbs because if the storage play was making more money everyone would do that instead of shipping and therefore lifting the timespread? What else?

I´m trading only paper for my own account and primarily provide liquidity on the curve. Always happe to learn more about the physical side of the business (especially because it helps not to get run over ;) )

Thanks

Might be a stupid question but I´m genuinely interested. I´m more of a paper guy coming from financials and wonder if there is cake in providing liquidity along the curve.

I´ve been tinkering with futures for quite a while now (Nymex/Cushing) and I´m using tools that are helpful in rates, you know the Nelson Siegel, PCA and other weird stuff that wouldn´t make any sense to a guy shipping brown mudd around the globe...

And I find it pretty interesting that my results (obviously) vary quite a bit when I translate the curve into yields first instead of just using raw dollar amounts. I´m not saying that there is edge in trading oil futures denominated in yields, but you know...it´s a different lens to view the market through. You can´t trade yields either but it definitely influences your position construction. A M2-M3 timespread of 3 $ with M2 trading at 80$ is different than a M9-M10 timespread of 3$ with M9 trading at 60$....

I´ve seen VaR being used a lot as a common denominator in the risk departments of trading firms so I wonder if physical traders also normalize the curve and look at it from a financial (yield) angle or rather trade barrels since the bottleneck is storage capacity, shipping and flow rates and money is not an issue ever (if you have a great trade you can always get financing).

Thank you very much