u/black-blue-ice

Option to reshape P&L smooth, allowing sizable position to produce profit

Nature of option is to precisely value and control risk. For many strategies, smartly using option structures can reshape your P&L (profit and loss) to be smooth, meaning 1) max loss is limited, 2) no steep loss.

Of course the P&L reshaping has a cost. But this is the key to real profit: a smooth P&L with limited max loss enables you to apply sizable position to produce good profits.

Reason is simple: without limited risk, rational investor will not place a big position, otherwise the account could suffer huge loss if holding long enough. Therefore, many good strategies can only work as "toy strategies".

This also explains the consistency between profit & efficient market theory: your profits are not from mis-priced assets, rather, it's from larger but safer positions.

Actually many successful investors are using this rule (they reshape PL to be smooth but not limited to using options):

* Bridgewater: textbook example of using uncorrelated assets to make smooth PL, then apply leverage. They don't use options because their fund is too large.

* Soros: his book Finance Alchemy recorded his usual portfolio structures: long/short stocks, long/short FXs, long/short interest products, long/short commodities -- overall it produces a smooth P&L allowing him to apply 3x leverage of his fund's capital.

* Cliff Asness (AQR fund): very similar to Bridgewater.

* Buffet: not a typical example but very similar: he finds and holds long-term stable & increasing stocks that are not perfectly smooth but drawdowns are quite limited, then he applied leverage with Insurance Float.

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u/black-blue-ice — 12 days ago

Snapshot of my IBKR 3 months net value change

Here is my strategy post:

https://www.reddit.com/r/options/comments/1vxb1ur/an_option_hedged_market_neutral_strategy/

As mentioned in that post: I've run this strategy for 3 months and its advantage is the stable PL (Profit & Loss).

Here is the snapshot of my IBKR 3-month net value change, which shows the same. I took the snapshot of app-switch on iPhone to prove that it's not a forged image.

As comparison, I attached snapshot of Nasdaq in the past 3 months -- note that it had a sharp drop at end of July but my PL is still stable at that time.

(the SPX positions below are parts of BOX spreads so plz ignore)

https://preview.redd.it/c69bdrak36mh1.png?width=1290&format=png&auto=webp&s=ba6d0620948ee901aa1c150a8607ac5ce562ae51

https://preview.redd.it/zzumn01y46mh1.png?width=1650&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5138a86841cc19aaa636d8f43e4b225ada05005

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u/black-blue-ice — 2 months ago

An Option Hedged Market Neutral Strategy

I have developed this strategy and have run it for 3 months. It performed pretty well.

[CORE_IDEA]

  • In a pool of stocks, find M ones to long and N to short (M roughly equals to N)
  • For each stock above, no matter long or short, use [SINGLE_STOCK_HEDGE] to hedge

[SINGLE_STOCK_HEDGE]

  • Suppose you long 100 GOOG shares (assume spot=350)
  • buy 350 put (leg1) / sell 320 put (leg2) / buy 300 put (leg3) / sell 370 call (leg4), DTE: 2 or 3 weeks
  • Explanation: leg1/leg2 are main hedge to protect loss for an immediate range, leg3 is to limit extreme loss, leg4 is the funding to reduce overall cost
  • If you are short a stock, reverse the hedge combo

Stock pool selection:

  • I like to choose from M7 stocks since Vol are high so the funding option effectively reduced cost
  • I long stocks when they reach recent lower bound (e.g. META around $530) and short when they reach recent upper bound (e.g. GOOG around $370)

Rationale:

  1. "Single stock + option hedge" ensures if you were correct (in long/short), you have reasonable gains, but if you were wrong, most (~80%) losses are hedged (with a reasonable cost for m7 stocks)
  2. The max loss is limited for each stock, meaning your losses are controlled in extreme conditions
  3. Based on these single-hedged stocks, you build a market neutral portfolio (long M stocks & short N stocks -- each stock has its own hedging), so that even market moves huge in one direction, you are mostly good
  4. Since this overall portfolio has (A) limited max-loss and (B) small losses in most of time (due to hedging for every stock), I'm OK to allocate more fund (e.g. 50% of liquidation) than holding several single stocks (I allocate 30% liquidation in such case). This gave me stable & nice profits.
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u/black-blue-ice — 2 months ago

Getting into Mexico from US border (San Diego): no one checks you?

Dear all,

I heard that if you go to Mexico from the US border by walking, the Mexico side does not check or inspect you. Even if they do, you can present a US driver license.

Is that True?

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u/black-blue-ice — 3 months ago

Is IT company remote employee OK to get temp residency?

Dear all,
I'm a fully remote worker at a large IT company. Can I apply for temp residency visa and tell the consulate that I will work remotely (for the company in my home country) after moving to Mexico? Is there any issue of saying this?

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u/black-blue-ice — 3 months ago