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Projecting Ivar Stenberg’s 2026-27 Season

If Stenberg does indeed start the season with the Sharks, he will be the youngest of this select Swedish group to do so by a full year. The 2nd-overall pick in the 2026 Draft will turn 19 on September 30, which is primed to be the beginning of the season. 

While Stenberg is younger than the rest, he is also fortunate enough to play with more talented players than most of the list. Näslund did play on the same team as Mario Lemieux and Jaromír Jágr, but he struggled to stay in the lineup after immense growing pains his rookie year; The top point getter on the Rangers when Sandström was a rookie was Reijo Ruotsalainen, a Finnish defenseman who only played seven years in the NHL; and oddly enough the Canucks leading scorer in the Sedin twins’ rookie year was Näslund. 

Stenberg will get the opportunity to play with an incredibly skilled forward group headlined by players like Macklin Celebrini, Will Smith, Michael Misa and Igor Chernyshov. Sharks head coach Ryan Warsofsky is notorious for throwing new forwards on Celebrini’s wing to see what sticks, so he’ll get the luxury of being the third option on a line that the opposition has focused their entire gameplan on stopping Celebrini first, then Smith. 

If he plays with Misa, that will also open him up for scoring opportunities as teams will focus more on Misa, the 2nd-overall pick in the 2025 Draft, who has an NHL season under his belt already. Even if he slides to the third line, he will be with fellow Swede Alex Wennberg who is an underrated play driver in his own right. 

Stenberg’s offensive skillset with his hockey IQ, elite hands and vision will likely earn him power play minutes, where again he will be set up beautifully as a fourth or fifth option with Celebrini on the ice or as a pivotal member of the second unit. 

Other noteworthy comparisons for young forwards adapting to the NHL game can be found on his own team. The aforementioned Smith and Misa had their own learning curves in their rookie years. Smith had 45 points in 74 games but showed signs he was figuring out the tempo and toughness required in the second half of the year. Misa similarly found his game in the back half after recovering from an ankle injury. He returned post Olympic break, ending the year with a four-game point streak capping his season totals to 21 points in 45 games. 

The average games played for the other four Swedes in their rookie seasons was 75.5 and the average point total was 33. If you remove the Näslund outlier 11 point season, the average is 40.3.

The factors that should be considered for Stenberg’s rookie year is the performance of the other top Swedes, the talent Stenberg will be set up with, the fact he won’t initially be pressured to carry any lines, he is already skilled enough at his young age to potentially make the roster at 19 and there will be power play opportunity for the taking.

With all that considered, expectations for Stenberg should be to out perform his fellow countrymen. He should hit the high 40s if plays at least 76 games and realistically crack the 50s or 60s if he plays a full 84 games. Anything less would be slightly disappointing for such a gifted young player with ample opportunity surrounded by skilled playmakers. My final prediction for Stenberg is 58 points in 75 games finishing top three in Calder votes.

Here are mine following Friday's 1st round.

1. Stenberg
2. Ravensbergen
3. Verhoeff
4. Bystedt
5. Lin
6. Musty
7. Pohlkamp
8. Sahlin Wallenius
9. McKinney
10. Wang

I'm ruling out anybody who has played in actual NHL games

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