
Might the P/C image imply that HALF of K4 is plaintext?
This post investigates whether K4 matches the speculative idea that HALF of K4 is transposed plaintext.
The proposed transposition would be induced by the K3 palimpsest idea; and the two halves would be the text written in the alternate rows that Sanborn indicated with P (plaintext) and C (ciphertext).
Let's start with typical frequencies for 48 English letters. I'm going to make one conceit, I'm going to swap "E"s and "K"s in the plaintext:
{'K': 6, 'T': 4, 'A': 4, 'O': 4, 'I': 4, 'N': 3, 'S': 3, 'R': 3, 'H': 2, 'L': 2, 'D': 2, 'C': 2, 'U': 1, 'M': 1, 'F': 1, 'G': 1, 'P': 1, 'W': 1, 'Y': 1, 'B': 1, 'V': 1, 'E': 0, 'J': 0, 'X': 0, 'Z': 0, 'Q': 0}
K4 frequencies after subtracting that:
{'U': 5, 'Z': 4, 'W': 4, 'Q': 4, 'B': 4, 'S': 3, 'J': 3, 'G': 3, 'F': 3, 'K': 2, 'E': 2, 'X': 2, 'T': 2, 'P': 2, 'L': 2, 'V': 1, 'R': 1, 'O': 1, 'D': 1, 'Y': 0, 'N': 0, 'M': 0, 'I': 0, 'H': 0, 'C': 0, 'A': 0}
Comparing these, it's plausible. Apart from Es (which would have to be changed to Ks) there are enough English-frequency letters in K4 for HALF of them to be transposed English and the other half to be transposed and substituted English.
So the complete story would be:
- insert 192 nulls into the K3 plaintext to form 8x66 matrix.
- overwrite 98 nulls. on rows 1,3,5,7 write K4 plaintext (swap Ks and Es). on rows 2,4,6,8 write K4 ciphertext (eg rot13). one ? probably at the end.
- apply the K3 transposition (rotate, resize 24x22, rotate).
- remove the nulls. we have K3?K4.
The puzzle then rests on understanding the order of overwriting nulls in step 2. For example, if writing vertically like the archimedes palimpsest, every other letter would be plaintext. If writing horizontally, there would be entire words of plaintext.
The pattern 011010 suggested by dYAhRo aligns uniquely with the nulls in 40 positions (5 per row). Ed or Jim suggested to Elonka it means "1-2-3". Are these the nulls we're supposed to fill? 3x40=120. when asked whether there are other "off by one" errors like XLAYERTWO, Ed said "well jim how are we going to answer that one?" and Jim replied "we don't". Ed said his secret is to "push into the square" (from the context, referencing this matrix) and "change the alphabet base" (the mask). Another comment was "sanborn seemed puzzled we hadn't recovered the original matrix and put it through all the shifts"
Speculation upon speculation, it's all we have. How could anyone possibly guess this method from the clues PALIMPSEST and LUCID MEMORY and dYAhRo and LAYERTWO ?