MCA vs. Premium Finance Consolidation: Can MCA Follow the 1990s Rollup Playbook?
I've deployed capital into MCA originators and I'm thinking about the rollup thesis - acquiring and consolidating small MCA shops into a platform. Curious how PE and specialty finance folks here would think about an MCA rollup valuation compared to a traditional lending platform, especially since there’s no 1:1 comp.
Some questions I'm mulling over:
- Valuation Multiples: Is the multiple discount on MCAs structural (i.e., institutional buyers will never pay up due to regulatory risk and asset quality), or is it simply a function of no one having built a clean enough platform at scale to test the market?
- Historical Parallels: E.g. premium finance was once highly fragmented, and early aggregators captured massive value. MCA today looks a lot like premium finance did 20 to 30 years ago-tons of small operators, a lack of institutional consolidation, and everyone running their own shop.
The key difference, of course, is that MCAs carry regulatory overhang and reputational baggage that premium finance never faced. For those familiar with the premium finance rollups (or other comps) of the 1990s and 2000s, what made those rollup deals work, and do you see any version of that playbook successfully applying to MCAs today?