u/credit_master

And Open source it. That’ll definitely give it an edge.

Man I thought we were going to pump and break $100 the past few days

I knew I shouldn’t be hopeful

Well, I posted this too late.

1. But all the sellers are out

2. Exec team already sold (CEO, CFO)

3. Cathie Woods is out

4. Company doing aggressive buy backs to defend the floor

This is where the risk/reward is in our favor

15x P/E is dirt cheap

Risk is lower, upside is higher

https://preview.redd.it/evzpw0q428ah1.png?width=1071&format=png&auto=webp&s=71a43a967d25264948e01b4917ced9d9c5cb2692

Over time, you are owning more and more of the business even if the price isn't going up and you're exposed to more of the earnings per share.

We really need to be posting in the other groups to promote this undervalued gem

Those who get in early will thank themselves in the next few years as AI breaks out and BABA plays a major leading role in china.

This is early, cheap, and their FCF ecommerce empire is fully subsidizing the AI growth without any additional debt

CEO and CFO and Cathie Woods sold recently. Everyone sold. Sucks for them to give up cheap shares. They'll regret it in the coming years. Their loss, our gain. Once all the sellers are out and no more sellers, we are likely to go back up.

Google announced they don't have enough servers to serve Meta's AI demands. Companies in china will need AI as well. Baba will be the leading force to upsell cloud clients into AI.

I regret buying too little, I'm loading the boat now while the markets panicked.

RemindMe! 1 year from now, and we will be in the $150's

Their Ecommerce business is #1 in china, and forever here to stay. Strong free cash flow to support the AI side of things. If there was no AI capex, they'd still be producing strong revenues. Their growth slowed form 30% to 3-6% but that's totally okay, the FCF still maintains.

I was in crypto before this and I've seen -75% draw downs before seeing 10-20x (where I've made all my money) (at -75% draw downs, all the weak hands have left, and you're just left with true believers who iron hand and don't sell), so whatever happens here is nothing and we're backed by fundamentals at least.

I was in muni bonds the past 4 years, and BABA is my main stock buy purchase.

https://preview.redd.it/mpy9hy3d08ah1.png?width=1566&format=png&auto=webp&s=3dfa2562a50912a4712470b3564ec7ab4a519244

Right now, you're getting the business at its cheapest in the past decade. Price is 50% from peak but 50% extra in revenues.

If you haven't considered a position, now is the time.

And baba will power AI for robotics which will be a big TAM on its own.

Any news I didn't see?

Why would you want BABA over MSFT when they're at similar P/E's now?

MSFT is back at November 2023 price levels now

My thesis for buying Baba before was because of the cheap P/E vs. the other cloud companies

It's hard to get access to hot leading AI companies for investment but BABA has the clout to do so, and returns will be meaningful as these companies grow and take market share. China is a big market.

Moonshot AI/Kimi - $800M for 36%

MiniMax - $600M Round (now at $2B)

Baichuan AI, Zhipu AI / Z .ai

Cloud is growing at 38% Y/Y

Edit: I increased baba to 2% of my portfolio by adding 1% worth in one buy at the $93 opening. Now up for now on this new buy.

I decided to buy no puts for $2 because puts are a waste of money (my $1B hedge fund manager friend told me). Could of fully hedged my position and any further down fall in price while collecting their sweet 1% dividend for being patient.

Down 40% YTD but it's okay, rewards come to those who are patient.

https://preview.redd.it/qdu6wfuncm9h1.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=d002318cff7fc8af52a533798692fd4dc1d7a351

This is a once in a life time generational buying opportunity.

How many of you have said: "If it drops back down, I will buy this time"

Now is your chance

IP theft from anthropic, sanctions from the US, all over blown.

Has no impact on the bottom line.

BABA has a massive warchest - $75B cash on hand

After debt, close to $40B which is almost 20% of their marketcap.

Let me show you the figures vs. SPCX so you can feel better.

SPCX - $2T MC, $18B Annual Revenues, 100x P/S

Baba - $200B MC, $148B annual Revenues, 1.5x P/S

At $90's, today is a gift

-Leader in Robotics AI LLM

-Rising leader in AI chips

-Top LLM overall/cheaper than anthropic's

-#1 ecom in china (FCF in perpetuity - think "Amazon of China")

-#1 cloud in asia (again, think "Amazon of China"), high margins and growing fast

-QWEN = 1B+ users

-You get the Ant Financial business for free ($732M record profits FY2026)

Normally I'd be selling covered calls for profits, but I don't want to miss out the explosive upside when we re-rate and all the sellers are shaken out.

Buying the dip today

I expect we go down to $60's first before we rocket back up to $150's. Let all the weak hands shake out. Michael Burry will sell at the bottom.

"These distillation attacks are carried out illicitly, systematically, and at industrial scale to harvest U.S. Al capabilities"

Anthropic alleged Alibaba created almost 25,000 fake accounts and conducted nearly 29 million exchanges to access Claude.

I'm even more bullish. That means Alibaba has access to Claude's model at a fraction of the cost without having to spend on expensive training and this shows they're smart enough and engineeringly talented to copy the best.

My average buy price is around $130 and going down. Now down 30% which is crazy. Since I've committed to not using any stop loss I'm now locked in. I always "stop lossed" in the past and missed out on upside. I didn't want to miss out anymore, so I wanted to get in and wait it out as BABA makes more progress in AI.

Patience rewards those who stay locked in.

If you want to know my historical P&L

I've stayed locked in on quality names from covid times, and before 2019.

I'm down on everything, but it's okay.

Coupang of Korea

ADYEY - Payment processor which powers uber and others etc.

PYPL - biggest value trap ever

Baba will pay me 1% in dividends a year to have me keep holding. And they raised it by 2% to $0.02 per share as well. This shows consistency and makes up 30% of their EPS. I consider BABA like a bond proxy, since muni bond only pays 4.4% anyways.

So up 1% from the dividends for the year, and down 30%.

https://preview.redd.it/bjgeeihr9h9h1.png?width=132&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf6896a7f5eb67b48bc0a4bfcb36fe920f8aefde

https://preview.redd.it/zirwo0q3ah9h1.png?width=628&format=png&auto=webp&s=5079e1a5fe50c3d7a0eaf636e9378447afd1ea8e

I've waited 7 years for some stocks to rebound and it's totally okay, I'm not worried.

If you wait long enough, quality companies trending down with increasing revenues and FCF and market share, bet on new technologies will reverse, don't worry.

Trust me, look at my portfolio. Only down 98% over 7 years and still holding.

I will buy more BABA soon since anything under $95 is a steal.

I expect we go to about $60 ish, which means I will be down 50%.

Then I will load the boat with margin. At some point the buy backs are bound to lift the shares. A quality company can't stay low forever (chatgpt says)

No, the markets aren't devaluing and giving a lower P/E or P/S to chinese companies across the board. No way.

Good luck, and hold on guys. If you're ever stressed, don't look at your portfolio. Take a chill pill. Do some work outs. Look back in 10 years, and you will thank me later.

It went to $19.20, gave a dividend of $0.49, and now dropped all the way down to $18.30.

Why do you guys think it dropped so much?

I'm currently in at $20.30

NAV is at $19.40's and has been declining slowly quarter over quarter

And no more cash to “keep buying dips” and I don’t want to keep buying the dip on something that keeps falling.

Meta is at 21x PE
Microsoft is at 21x PE too

And they’re both AI leaders

Doesn’t make sense to keep staying in BABA

I DCA’d down from $133 and I’ve been selling covered calls on the way down for minimum income, but it doesn’t offset the losses at all.

Baba is the only stock I tried to buy, after not trading stocks for 9 years and coming from the 100% muni bond + real estate world.

Every buy the dip I did with BABA, I'm down

https://preview.redd.it/6aycdjp4sn7h1.png?width=171&format=png&auto=webp&s=b6f7bc361ce17663cdc2e3f507b57315ddb63a5c

was hoping for a bounce any news that made us go down even more today?

Did I miss any new news? I really regret buying the dips on this at $130. I kept DCAing and I'm down 10%.

I could of stayed out since six months historical trend it's trending down but I got greedy.

Microsoft PE is now similar to Baba too. I first kept buying baba since the PE at 20 is cheaper compared to Microsoft or at 30x. Or google at 30x. And Baba used to have an all time high price double this.

I used to say if baba ever recovers in price I'll get out at brsak even and I waited one year for that to happen. But I still got back in due to addiction for the possible gains.

Would anyone still buy this over Microsoft if PE is similar and what's the reasoning?

Baba feels it has geopolitical risk.

MSFT feels too mature of a market already.

But MSFT revenue and earnings have grown more consistently than baba's and at a faster rate.

is it because cloud is doing well?