u/edeyhookshots

The point guard position remains a question mark in the long run, though there are no shortage of candidates going into next season. Ty, SPJ, Javon, and Walt all figure to get minutes at the point, but with Cam Boozer around to serve as a possible “point forward,” there might not even be a need for a traditional PG in the starting lineup.

When Steve Kerr took over as the head coach in Golden State in the 2014-15 season, they won their first Championship in the Curry-era. That season they began adapting Draymond Green to a facilitating role as a point forward, freeing up Curry to play more off-ball and shoot (and he won his first MVP). The next year they went 73-9, Curry won another MVP, and Draymond led the team in assists (7.4 APG to Curry’s 6.7). Curry shot a league-leading 11.2 3PA per game, and he’d go on to average 11.3 3PA per season for the next 11 years as the offense continued to run through Draymond.

The novel offensive scheme that cemented Golden State as a dynasty wouldn’t work without an elite shooter like Curry and a savvy facilitator like Draymond, and the Grizzlies next season will feature two guys that might be able to replicate that dynamic: Cam Boozer and Cam Spencer (Cam^(2), if you nasty).

Cam Spencer was brilliant when running point last year, but doing so largely neutralized his greatest asset: catch-and-shoot threes. Having Boozer around would give him the opportunity to play off-ball and find space, where he doesn’t need much to get good looks. With Ced, Boozer, and Edey on the court, the Grizzlies would likely have a rebounding advantage over just about any team in the league, so getting quality shots up creates excellent second-chance opportunities.

Please bear in mind that the following comparison between Cam Spencer and Steph Curry is only about 60% serious before you call me an idiot.

Steph Curry and Cam Spencer came to the league under very different circumstances and in very different roles, but when their early career numbers are normalized per-36 minutes, there are some clear similarities:

Per-36

Curry (first 3 seasons): 18.6/4.3/6.1 on 47/44/90 splits (58% TS)

Cam (first 2 seasons): 16.6/3.9/7.9 on 47/44/95 splits (64% TS)

By any metric, Cam Spencer’s shooting numbers are elite (Curry-esque, if you will.) Yes, Curry’s sample size is over 3x as many minutes (he logged 2896 his rookie year alone and Cam has just 1966 over his first two seasons combined), so you have to consider that disparity when extrapolating the data. Otherwise, though, it’s pretty interesting to see the shooting splits (and that both players led the league in FT% during their sophomore campaigns). Furthermore, when you look at their playmaking numbers, Cam’s AST% and AST/TOV ratio clears Curry (31% AST% for Cam vs 27% for Curry; 4.4 AST/TOV for Cam, 2.0 for Curry), indicating that Cam has a stronger profile as a traditional PG as well.

TL;DR – Cam Spencer is Steph Curry. Curry was 26 when he won his first MVP and Championship. Cam Spencer is 26 now. Hang the fucking banner.

Grizzlies out-rebounded their opponent in each Vegas game to a total of 151-110. Only 11 rebounds came from the starting center (Hendricks for 3 games, Lovering once), so imagine that rebounding dominance + Edey. THE GRIZZLIES UNDERSTAND SIZE!

Memphis out-rebounded Dallas 43:28 and attempted 27 more field goals. Sure, they collectively shot an abysmal 37/29/50, but that was obviously due to witchcraft, which has no place in scientific analysis. Analytically, the Grizzlies mauled the Mavs tonight and are very much still in contention for the Analytical Summer League Championship!

There are no new guards and Ja is gone, which means there are currently five candidates to function as a primary ballhandler:

Player (MPG)	PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	3P%	FT%	TS%
Ty (22.3, 15 gm)	19.7	2.8	5.7	47%	42%	88%	61.6%
Cam (23.8)	11.1	2.5	5.6	47%	45%	94%	64.9%
SPJ (LY 21.3)	9.9	3.3	4.4	48%	40%	71%	58.2%
Walt (20.4)	7.8	2	4	38%	31%	90%	52.3%
Javon (20.2)	9.7	3.1	3.7	47%	42%	83%	61.1%

Obviously Ty looked incredible in those 15 games last year, and you'd have to be insane not to just hand him the keys and ask him to do it for 30 minutes a night. Cam also looked great and in a dynamic role where he also managed to be outrageously ball secure with a 4.3 AST:TOV ratio over 72 games. He's earned a regular role on this team, but he's most valuable when playing off the ball, so it's going to be important to have a back-up PG to share minutes with him.

SPJ, Walt, and Javon are all candidates for that spot. In the table above I used SPJ's numbers from the 2024-25 season (79 games) for better comparison, and they stack up pretty well with Javon's. Scotty was in his second season with Memphis then, freshly converted from his Two-Way contract before the season began. Javon will be entering his second season next year, and he's already put up peak SPJ numbers as a rookie. Compare Javon's final 26-games after he re-entered the rotation last year to Scotty's breakout 21-games in the 2023-24 tank season:

Javon (24.9 MPG): 12.7/4.2/4.0, 49/45/83 63.6% TS

SPJ (25.1 MPG): 12.9/3.2/4.7, 49/42/75 59.6% TS

My modest proposal is: sign Javon to a SPJ-esque 4-year deal and trade Scotty for the Santi Aldama package. Send him off like Tyus Jones to see if he can thrive with a larger role elsewhere. Plenty of teams will want him with his brand new toes.

At that point, Javon Small would officially become part of the Grizzlies future, which brings me, of course, to a totally ridiculous Jalen Brunson comparison.

At the draft combine, Javon measured at 6'1" (barefoot), 190lbs, with a wingspan of 6'4.75" and a standing reach 8'0". Jalen Brunson measured at 6'1.25" (barefoot), 190lbs, with a wingspan of 6'2.5" and a standing reach of 7'9". So now you see why people are calling Javon Small 'Long-Brunson'. He also jumped higher (40.5" vert for Javon vs 34" for Brunson) and tested as more agile, so it's pretty clear that Javon is built like a longer, more athletic Brunson, without sacrificing the muscle.

Doubter, consider this... in their final years in college:

Javon averaged: 18.6/4.1/5.6

Brunson averaged: 18.9/3.1/4.6

Both were then drafted in the second round. Brunson only played 3 years of college (and didn't even win the National Championship in his sophomore season) and was drafted a year younger than Javon. He sucked hard in Summer League (6.8/2.8/4.4, yuck!) but was a solid contributor off the bench over his first two seasons in Dallas. Comparing those first two seasons to Javon's rookie year:

Javon (20.2 MPG, 41 gm): 9.7/3.1/3.7, 47/42/83, 61.1% TS

Brunson (20.1 MPG, 130 gm): 8.8/2.3/3.2, 47/35/76, 55.1% TS

Look, I'm not saying that Javon will be better than Brunson, the numbers are saying that. And don't tell me about "sample sizes" and "tank year competition" because that's the vocabulary of Javon deniers. You want more of a sample size? Better competition? Me too! So play more Javon!

Edit: Reddit formatting lost all my stats I had included but I swear they stacked up! I didn't save my spreadsheet because this was more of a jitpost anyway, so I can't even add them back in. I'd delete this but fuck it, I stand by my projection!

Assuming no new guards enter the mix, I see Javon Small as the only true PG on the team right now (SPJ has a case, but I see him as more of an undersized combo guard). So, with Summer League kicking off tomorrow, I thought it would be interesting to compare Javon to another small guard drafted in the second round: Jalen Brunson.

Brunson's college career was incredible: 2 championships, multiple player of the year awards, blah blah. Small's was solid but obviously the accolades don't stack up, but statistically he compares fairly well.

Edit: There were stats here that supported my point!

Brunson was a more efficient shooter and had a better AST:TOV ratio (2.6 for Brunson, 2.1 for Javon), but otherwise they were fairly similar. Notably, Javon was a far better defender. But whatever, that's college and Brunson obviously played at a much higher level.

Brunson was drafted 33rd overall by Dallas in 2018. Javon was drafted 48th overall last year. Javon was a year older at the time and didn't have a clear path into the rotation, whereas Brunson ended up playing 73 games his rookie year (38 starts). Comparing Brunson's first two years (age 22-23) to Javon's rookie year (23):

Edit: Here too!

Obviously it's a smaller sample size, but early in his NBA career Javon has been the more efficient shooter, shooting 45% from 3 on 4.2 3PA over his final 26 games (12.7/4.2/4 on 24.9 MP over that span) while still being the far better defender. Additionally, Javon was better at creating his own shot on the perimeter (only 50% of Javon's 3PA were assisted, vs 78% of Brunson's), though Brunson still edged him out on AST:TOV (2.7 for Brunson, 2.2 for Javon).

Brunson would breakout in his 3rd season (4th in 6MOY) with 12.6/3.4/3.5 on 52/41/80 at age 24. Javon will turn 24 during the season, and I fully expect him to put up comparable numbers, become our own Captain Clutch, and eventually bring Memphis its first NBA Championship!

After years of being a Santi Aldama apologist, I hate seeing him go for more damn second round picks. At least I'll always have the memory of this dunk to cap off one of my all-time favorite Grizz games.

https://preview.redd.it/e60r2415tq9h1.png?width=916&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d93215aba3f83b10cfbd6dd1de9144095907ac8

Presumably Taylor Jenkins has moved from Memphis at this point, or will very soon, but he stuck around the city after being fired more than a year ago. He'll be remembered in Memphis as a player's coach above all else, always willing to stick up for his guys, and his career has overlapped with Morant's the entire time. Seeing Ja get kicked around in the media might inspire him to recapture that magic in Milwaukee, and they can make the move from one small market to another together.

For actual basketball reasons, Jenkins could play Ja/Rollins a lot like he did Ja/Bane, freeing Rollins up for a higher volume of threes. Keep Myles Turner and play him like Jaren, only he actually plays the 5. Burries comes off the bench, but I think that combo guard sixth man role is perfect for him to develop next season. If nothing else, pump-and-dump Ja's value at the cost of a couple expiring contracts.

Memphis does it just cuz y not yk?

Earlier this year, Anthony Edwards torched the Grizzlies over two consecutive games in Memphis, going for 33 in a Wolves’ win on January 31, then 39 in a loss on February 2. That’s 72 points over 78:25 MP, shooting 47.9%. Jaylen Wells was the primary defender on him both nights (one night with braids and the other without, for those who think his hair is a factor. There are at least two or you, I’m sure of it).

If you look at those numbers, you might think that Jaylen Wells is not the great defender that some of us believe him to be, but when you dig into the film on those games, it’s a very different story.

Over Edwards’ 78:25 MP, Wells was on the court for 52:17. (Wells was on the court for 66.7% of Edwards’ minutes, while Edwards was on the court for 100% of Wells’)

• With Wells on the court: Edwards scored 33 points on 11/24 (45.8% FG)
• Without Wells: Edwards scored 39 on 12/24 (50% FG)

At a glance, those numbers suggest that Wells was practically a non-factor, but when you normalize those numbers at equal weight in minutes, Edwards took twice as many shots when Wells was off the floor (Per-36, that’s 16.5 FGA with Wells on vs. 33.2 with Wells off).

When you dig even deeper into Edwards’ performance over those games, you see that even the points scored while Wells is on the floor largely came against other defenders, whether in transition or off switches. In buckets that Edwards scored while Wells was defending, Edwards only had 1 FG against Wells in the first game (a layup off an excellent cut from the top of the arc midway through the 4th quarter), and 4 FGs in the second, with 2 coming in the final two minutes of the game when the Grizzlies were up double-digits and just avoiding fouls. Edwards total vs. Wells over those two games: 5 FG in 52 minutes, all within 10’ of the rim.

This is the true value of Jaylen Wells that defensive stats don’t really account for: he plays glued to the hip of his assignment, drastically reducing their touches on the floor. His job isn’t to help on drives or jump into passing lanes, his job is to pick up the other team’s best scorer and hound them off-ball, forcing other guys to score. If his game looks boring to you, it’s by design. He’s not flashy, he doesn’t chase counting stats, and most offensive possessions involve him hanging out in the corner to catch a breath before getting back on D.

So the next time you’re thinking that Wells can be easily replaced as a starter with someone that has more offensive upside (GG Jackson for example), consider what that is going to do to the team’s defense. Wells is an elite off-ball perimeter defender that can effectively neutralize All-Pro scorers, and you absolutely need that in your starting unit.

2021-22:

Starters: Ja Morant (Yr 3), Desmond Bane (Yr 2), Dillon Brooks (Yr 5), Jaren Jackson, Jr. (Yr 4), Steven Adams (Yr 9)

2nd Unit: Tyus Jones (Yr 7), De'Anthony Melton (Yr 4), Ziaire Williams (Rookie), Kyle Anderson (Yr 8), Brandon Clarke (Yr 3, RIP)

2026-27 (as of the end of the draft)

Starters: Ja Morant (Yr 8), Cedric Coward (Yr 2), Jaylen Wells (Yr 3), Cam Boozer (Rookie), Zach Edey (Yr 3)

2nd Unit: Ty Jerome (Yr 8), Cam Spencer (Yr 3), GG Jackson (Yr 4), Santi Aldama (Yr 6), Isaiah Stewart (Yr 7)

Spare me your Ja won't be here negativity! He's got the tattoo, he posted a picture of the river and kayaked at Shelby Farms, Kleiman didn't draft a PG, and, most imporantly, no one else wants him. If he's going to salvage his career, it might have to be here, and 26-year-olds can still change, goshfuckingdarnit! (I don't necessarily believe this but I also don't necessarily don't.)

He passed up multiple opportunities last night to get guys like Okorie, Philon, Anderson, and Stirtz, opting instead for another raw wing prospect to follow in the proud tradition of Grizz Legends David Roddy, Jake LaRavia, and Ziaire Williams.

I actually like the Lopez pick, especially at #21, but it's interesting that Kleiman has always looked for PGs elsewhere, usually off the scrap heap or in the second round. It's not like PG hasn't been a position of need for years, and a crucial part of running Iisalo's system. Does he believe that strongly in Walter Clayton, Jr? Does he think Cam Boozer can run a point forward position?

Next week, GG Jackson will no longer be the youngest guy on the roster. He is not signed for next season.

Assuming that Cam Boozer is drafted, he will likely start at the 4 right out of the gate. Boozer has immediately dominated every level so far, so it would be almost silly to not let him show his stuff from day 1. That leaves perennial 6^(th) man Santi Aldama in his familiar role as backup PF (which he is excellent at, by the way) and makes it difficult for GG to earn his extension with steady minutes.

Yes, GG has immense potential. He’s still young (a month younger than Cameron Carr, who is projected as a potential late lottery pick on Tuesday), and showed real personal growth and maturity under Iisalo last season, playing the best ball of his career from late-December on after a stint with the Hustle. The big question is where does his game develop from here?

GG was a difficult guy to comp coming into the league since he was still so raw. He was a 5-star prospect in high school who reclassified to attend South Carolina a year early, where he was playing college ball at 17, then got drafted as the youngest player in his class at just 18. He’s now been in the league for three years. For the sake of looking at his development to this point, I compared the first three years of GG to his biggest competition for minutes next season (Santi), his absolute ideal peak (Giannis), and a comp I saw at time of the 2022 draft (Marcus Morris). What I realized is: 

GG is still an awful defender. He’s improved from his rookie year, when guys were scoring 64.5% against him in isolation (1.7 percentile), but that’s not saying much. In year 3, opponents still scored 56.5% of the time in isolation (6.9 percentile). His DBPM remains under-par as well (-1.2 last year, up from -1.8 his rookie year), and though he did show some improvement, it was not as large a leap as the other guys I looked at from years 1-3. The one area he did make big strides in was his BLK% (3.4% last year, up from 1.8%), as he showed promise as a help defender in the paint.

His offensive game is moving closer to the rim. His rookie year, GG had a 3-point attempt rate of 51% (36% efficiency), but saw that drop to 38% last year (33% efficiency). He did most of his damage at the rim, posting the best TS% (59.1%) of the group I looked at on 21 PPG Per-36 (also the highest). He improved his efficiency at all ranges within the arc last year, while his outside shot took a step back.

His lack of rebounding and playmaking is holding him back. He posted 10.8% TRB% and 10.7% AST% last year, trailing the numbers even Santi put up in year 3 (11.9% and 13.3% respectively), much less Giannis. Of course, year 3 is when Giannis played point and really developed his playmaking before making the leap in year 4 (MIP winner, AS, All-NBA 2^(nd) Team, All-Defense 2^(nd) Team, 7^(th) in MVP). Unfortunately, I don’t see a similar leap in store for GG, and now those Giannis comps just feel silly.

He looks like a volume scorer and not much else. But his scoring isn't elite, which is why he doesn’t really make much sense as a starter even without factoring in Boozer. This means that GG’s best opportunity here is to emerge as the #1 option in the second unit, but there are a lot of mouths to feed at the backup 4 (Santi, Hendricks, OMax). GG truthers might push for a Santi trade to free up minutes, but Santi has made clear improvements to his game year-over-year, so is it really in the team’s best interest to move a better player just so a guy who’s developing slowly can play more? Santi is a better defender, better rebounder, better playmaker, more ball-secure, more versatile, and has a more reliable outside shot (including a significant advantage in the all-important corner three).

Forget Giannis, GG likely won’t ever come close. At this point, it’s hard to argue that he’ll become a more productive role player than even Santi Aldama. The NBA is full of guys who can score when given a 24% usage rate on a tanking team, and GG needs to prove there’s more to his game than that. Which brings me back to Marcus Morris, that bearish comp from before GG was drafted.

Marcus Morris played for 13 years. He shot a solid clip from outside (career 38%) and was a good hustle guy who could capably defend multiple positions. As a scorer, GG clears Morris easily, even if his shot from three isn’t as reliable. But the reason Morris had a solid career was because of the other stuff: the defense, the hustle, and understanding his role each season. With a potential extension on the horizon, do you think GG has enough time to earn a role in Memphis?

TL;DR: GG is a good scorer but hasn't shown much else. He has a team option for next season and that's it. Do you think he has a future here? If so, what would it take to get an extension and what would that even look like?

The very most ethical double-double because he was just 0/1 from the line (16/20 from the field). I'm going to hit up a wishing well and drop a cool hundo in pennies (RIP) in hopes I can will a healthy season for him into existence next year.