u/fiftytwopointfour

So often I hear the commentators say about a stalled offense "they should use more play action" and I feel like I've seen stats that show that play action results in a higher EPA and Success Rate than regular drop backs. When under center and with a running back in the backfield, why don't ALL TEAMS at ALL TIMES have their QB take a moment to fake a handoff before dropping back to pass, and give the D-line and linebackers some pause? Their must be a downside... right?

Looking at all NFL players drafted from 2016-2022, the player chosen 124th in the NFL Draft have averaged a Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV) of 10 (source: pro football reference). The ceiling (80th percentile) have had a wAV of 19. The floor (20th percentile) was 5. Here are Chicago Bears defensive backs with similar wAVs, lazy with write-ups by AI.

80th Percentile: wAV ~19: The "Draft Day Steal" / Reliable Starter

This tier represents players who exceeded their 4th-round pedigree to become long-term fixtures in the secondary.

• Major Wright (Safety, 2010–2013 | wAV: 20): Ironically a 4th-round pick himself, Wright became a primary starter for the Bears for four seasons. He was a hard-hitting safety who recorded 9 interceptions during his time in Chicago. If Muhammed hits this mark, he is a multi-year starter who eventually earns a significant second contract.
• D.J. Moore (Cornerback, 2009–2012 | wAV: 18): Not to be confused with the WR, this D.J. Moore was a ball-hawk nickel corner who recorded 10 interceptions in four seasons. He was a vital part of the Lovie Smith "Tampa 2" defense and shows how a mid-round pick can become a high-impact sub-package specialist.

50th Percentile: wAV ~10: The "Special Teams Ace / Reliable Depth"

This is a common outcome for defensive backs in this range—players who are valuable enough to stay on the roster for a decade but mostly contribute on Special Teams or as injury replacements.

• Sherrick McManis (Cornerback, 2012–2020 | wAV: 11): One of the most respected special teams players in franchise history. While he rarely started at corner, he played in 142 games and was a captain for years. He represents the "High Floor" for a 4th-rounder: a player who becomes a locker-room leader and a decade-long roster lock.
• Deon Bush (Safety, 2016–2021 | wAV: 12): Another 4th-round pick who spent six seasons in Chicago. He was a primary backup and special teams standout who could spot-start without being a liability. This is a very realistic "median" career for a pick at #124.

20th Percentile: wAV ~5: The "Short Leash / Injury" Tier

This tier represents players who either lacked the consistency to hold a roster spot or whose careers were derailed early.

• Al Afalava (Safety, 2009 | wAV: 5): A 6th-round pick who actually started 13 games as a rookie. However, he was waived the following preseason and struggled to stick elsewhere. He is a reminder that early playing time doesn't always translate to long-term career value.
• Brock Vereen (Safety, 2014–2015 | wAV: 4): A 4th-round pick (at #131, almost exactly where Muhammed was taken) who had elite athleticism but struggled to adapt to the speed of the NFL. He started a handful of games but was off the roster by his second season.

Looking at all NFL players drafted from 2016-2022, the player chosen 89th in the NFL Draft have averaged a Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV) of 13 (source: pro football reference). The ceiling (80th percentile) have had a wAV of 24. The floor (20th percentile) was 7. Here are Chicago Bears wide receivers with similar wAVs, with lazy write-ups by AI.

80th Percentile: wAV ~24: The "Reliable Third Down" Target

This is a player who becomes a key part of the offensive rotation for 5+ years. They aren't necessarily "WR1" stars, but they are trusted starters who stick with the team through their entire first contract.

• Earl Bennett (wAV: 25): Drafted in the 3rd round (pick #70), Bennett is the perfect benchmark for a successful mid-round receiver. He was Jay Cutler’s reliable target, finishing his Chicago career with 2,277 yards. He wasn't a deep threat, but he was efficient and tough—the exact trajectory you want for a pick in the 80-90 range.
• Eddie Royal (wAV: 23): Royal was a veteran slot specialist. While he only spent two years in Chicago, his total career wAV of 23 reflects a player who was a primary starter for a decade. He shows how a receiver can accumulate value through consistency and versatility in the slot.

50th Percentile: wAV ~17: The "Explosive but Short-Lived" Contributor

This range represents players who had a massive "peak" or specific niche (like returning kicks) but didn't have the 10-year longevity as a primary receiver.

• Johnny Knox (wAV: 18): A 5th-round steal who became a Pro Bowl returner and a legit deep threat. His career was tragically cut short, but his 18 wAV over just three seasons shows how high-impact a mid-round pick can be. If Zavion Thomas tracks like Knox early on, the Bears have a massive value on their hands.
• Devin Hester (wAV: 27 total, but approx. 17 specifically as a receiver): Hester is a unique case. While his total wAV is higher because of his legendary returns, his impact strictly as a wide receiver sits in this middle tier. He shows that a #89 pick can be a Hall of Fame special teamer while still being a "tier 2" receiver.

20th Percentile: wAV ~7: The "Rotation / Special Teams Only" Tier

This is the danger zone. It represents players who have the physical traits but never quite mastered the route running or consistency needed to stay on the field for offensive snaps.

• Dane Sanzenbacher (wAV: 6): A fan favorite who excelled in the preseason but struggled to become a regular offensive contributor. He represents the "high-floor backup" who provides value on special teams but doesn't move the needle for the offense.
• Marquess Wilson (wAV: 8): A 7th-round pick with 1st-round size. He showed flashes of being a starter but struggled with injuries and consistency. An 8 wAV is common for receivers who tease potential but never quite "put it all together."

Looking at all NFL players drafted from 2016-2022, the player chosen 25th in the NFL Draft have averaged a Weighted Career Approximate Value (wAV) of 27 (source: pro football reference). The ceiling (80th percentile) have had a wAV of 41. The floor (20th percentile) was 16. Here are Chicago Bears defensive backs with similar wAVs, with lazy write-ups by AI.

80th Percentile: Career AV of 41 (The Long-Term "Glue" Starter)

This tier represents the high-end outcome for a late first-round safety. These players are multi-contract starters who were the steady "glue" of the defense for nearly a decade.

• Mike Richardson (Cornerback, 1983–1988): A key starter on the 1985 championship team, Richardson finished his career with a wAV of 39. He provided six seasons of high-level starting play in Chicago before retiring. He represents the "high-floor" scenario where a high draft pick solidifies a position for an entire championship window.
• Prince Amukamara (Cornerback, 2017–2019): Though he played for several teams, his total career ended with a wAV of 42. During his three years in Chicago, he was the savvy veteran presence who stabilized the 2018 top-ranked defense. He is the perfect example of a #19-25 overall talent who stays in the league for a decade as a reliable professional.

50th Percentile: Career AV of 27 (The "Productive Cycle" Starter)

27 is the median for a mid-round pick who wins a starting job early. These players usually finish their first contract as starters but might not reach a third deal with the same team.

• Chris Conte (Safety, 2011–2014): A frequent target of fan debate, Conte was a statistically productive four-year starter in Chicago before moving to Tampa Bay. He finished his career with a wAV of 28. He represents the "average" outcome for a third-round safety: a player who starts 50+ games and provides solid, if not elite, production.
• Nathan Vasher (Cornerback, 2004–2009): A legendary "ball-hawk" for the Bears, Vasher’s career was a "burn bright, burn fast" story. Injuries limited his longevity, but he finished with a wAV of 30. He shows how an elite peak (like his 2005 Pro Bowl season) can drive a player into this tier even without a 12-year career.

20th Percentile: Career AV of 16 (The "Flashes of Impact" Tier)

This tier is common for players who were either elite "nickel" specialists or starters whose careers were cut short.

• Bryce Callahan (Cornerback, 2015–2018): Now retired, Callahan was one of the premier nickel corners in football during his Chicago tenure. He finished his career with a wAV of 16. His career illustrates how a player can be vital to a defense's success without being a "volume" starter on the outside.
• Major Wright (Safety, 2010–2013): A heavy hitter who started for several seasons during the Lovie Smith era. He finished his career with a wAV of 20. He represents the "lower-median" outcome: a player who starts for a few years but eventually transitions to a backup or journeyman role.