Built a 3 click arb alert tool between Polymarket<> Hyperliquid HIP4 <> Kalshi for the World Cup - Should I continue and expand?

The thing I kept running into: the same outcome would be priced differently on Polymarket vs other prediction markets, sometimes enough to matter after fees, but by the time I'd manually checked both books the gap was gone. I would need to build something one off with claude and have it always running on a box. So I made an easy to use UI to create a bot that watches two venues and alerts me when a gap opens. Made it 3 clicks. I also have a way to configure a webhook that sends the alert to my Openclaw box.

The surprising part: plenty of similar markets diverge by 2%+ on a regular basis. Fees and depth will eat into some of these, but the raw divergences are real. The edges are more common than you'd think once you're actually watching them.

A few details since this crowd will ask:

  • It's alerts only. No auto-execution, you keep your own keys and place the trades yourself. It tells you when, not where to sign. More on this below.
  • Search isn't World Cup-locked. Any market listed on both venues works. Made it World Cup for fun.
  • Alerts go wherever: the UI, Telegram, email, or a webhook (Slack, your personal OpenClaw box for your own execution if you'd like, etc).
  • Setup is roughly three clicks to a live alert.
  • The alert is re-set once the threshold gap is not met again. There is fatigue control built in as well so you are not spammed once you pass your threshold gap (fatigue control is set to 12 hours, then re-alert).

What I'm actually here for: I want to know where this falls short before I build more. Specifically:

  • Should I add auto-execution with you in the approval loop?
  • Which other venues would make this useful, if any? (Coinbase, OKX, others?)
  • Should I do this with venues outside of prediction markets?
  • Should I make this per event for ease of use or a general stand alone tool for being able to choose-your-own-arb?
  • Anything about the alert flow that'd make or break it for you?

Happy to answer anything about how it works under the hood.

Try it for free at https://worldcup.glacient.ai

u/henryk-xyz — 3 days ago

Built a 3 click arb alert tool between Polymarket<> Hyperliquid outcome markets for the world cup.... Should I expand 3 click arb with execution to other venues?

The thing I kept running into: the same outcome would be priced differently on Polymarket vs other prediction markets, sometimes enough to matter after fees, but by the time I'd manually checked both books the gap was gone. I would need to build something one off with claude and have it always running on a box. So I made an easy to use UI to create a bot that watches two venues and alerts me when a gap opens. Made it 3 clicks. I also have a way to configure a webhook that sends the alert to my Openclaw box.

A few details since this crowd will ask:

  • It's alerts only. No auto-execution, you keep your own keys and place the trades yourself. It tells you when, not where to sign. More on this below.
  • Search isn't World Cup-locked. Any market listed on both venues works. Made it World Cup for fun.
  • Alerts go wherever: the UI, Telegram, email, or a webhook (Slack, your personal OpenClaw box for your own execution if you'd like, etc).
  • Setup is roughly three clicks to a live alert.
  • The alert is re-set once the threshold gap is not met again. There is fatigue control built in as well so you are not spammed once you pass your threshold gap (fatigue control is set to 12 hours, then re-alert).

What I'm actually here for: I want to know where this falls short before I build more. Specifically:

  • Should I add auto-execution with you in the approval loop?
  • Which other venues would make this useful, if any? (Kalshi, Coinbase, others?)
  • Should I do this with venues outside of prediction markets?
  • Should I make this per event for ease of use or a general stand alone tool for being able to choose-your-own-arb?
  • Anything about the alert flow that'd make or break it for you?

Happy to answer anything about how it works under the hood.

Try it for free at https://worldcup.glacient.ai

u/henryk-xyz — 8 days ago

My Uniswap V3 fees just sit there uncollected until I remember to claim them, anyone solve this cleanly?

On Uniswap V3 my earned fees don't auto-compound or land in my wallet, they accrue inside the position as uncollected balances until I manually send a collect transaction. So the fees I've earned just sit there: not in my wallet, not redeployed, not doing anything, exposed to whatever the position is exposed to. I only realize how much has piled up when I happen to open the position and look.

That creates a couple of real costs for me. I'm paying gas to collect, so claiming too often is wasteful, but waiting too long means a meaningful amount of value sits idle when I could be compounding it or moving it. There's a "right" threshold to claim at, some dollar amount where it's worth the gas, but nothing tells me when I've crossed it. So in practice I either over-check out of paranoia or forget for weeks and find a surprise pile.

What I actually want is dead simple to describe: tell me when my uncollected fees on a position cross some amount. Something like "ping me when uncollected fees hit $50" so I can batch a collect at a point where the gas is clearly worth it. The data I'd need is minimal:

  • Uncollected fees per token, in token units
  • The same expressed in USD / pool-price terms, so I can set a single dollar threshold instead of doing the conversion in my head
  • % of fees on each side, when I care which token I'm accruing

None of this is hard to read off-chain. It's just that nothing's watching it for me, so I'm back to manually checking or writing yet another script to do it, which is the path I went down before and regretted (ran on a dedicated box, broke quietly, became its own maintenance job).

What I'm trying to figure out:

  1. Do other people actually track an uncollected-fee threshold, or just collect when you remember / when you're closing the position anyway?
  2. Is a notification at a threshold enough, or would you want it to auto-collect (and auto-compound back in) once it's worth the gas? I lean toward wanting the action eventually, but the trust bar for letting software move my fees feels higher than for a simple alert.
  3. For anyone who'd allow auto-collection, what makes it safe enough? Non-custodial obviously, but spending caps, a gas ceiling, a simulation before it fires?

Disclosure since it's relevant: I got tired enough of this that I built a no-code tool (Glacient) to replace my old script, I describe the alert in plain English, like "email me when the WBTC/USDT pool owned by 0x_some_wallet_address has uncollected fees on the USDT side over 20 USD," and it handles the watching. The monitoring is free. But I'm mostly here to find out whether the threshold-collect problem is common or just my own habit, and whether people want the alert or want it just handled. I attached a walk through video of what I'm doing today below if folks are interested. NOTE: Currently glacient is invite only since I'm experimenting and building tooling for myself, but here is an invite code I made for this subreddit to use this tool I made for free: reddit-uniswap-1010

https://reddit.com/link/1tu0k0k/video/q9knhb7onp4h1/player

reddit.com
u/henryk-xyz — 1 month ago

Anyone here actually wire an LLM into their polymarket workflow? Curious what broke.

I keep seeing posts across prediction market subs and socials about people using ChatGPT/Claude to research markets, summarize news, sanity-check their reasoning on a contract, etc. Basically using it as a smarter rubber duck before placing a bet.

What I'm more curious about is the people (if any) who've tried to go further than that. Like, actually plugging an LLM into your live positions, market data, news feeds, or the Polymarket API directly. Not "ChatGPT helped me think through the NYC mayor race." More like, "the model is part of the running system or my daily decision loop."

A few specific things I'm trying to understand:

  • Has anyone actually tried this? What were you trying to get it to do: monitor odds movement across markets, summarize breaking news against your open positions, flag arb opportunities between Polymarket and Kalshi/sportsbooks, screen new markets, something else?
  • Where did it fall apart? Hallucinated probabilities or event details? Couldn't pull live order book data? Too slow to react when news broke? You stopped trusting its read on resolution criteria?
  • For the people who haven't tried: is that because you don't think there's edge in it, or because the plumbing is too annoying (API access, scraping odds, copy-pasting market context, wiring up news feeds, etc.)?
  • What's the dumbest manual thing you do every day that, in theory, a model with access to your positions and the relevant feeds could do, but you haven't bothered to wire it up? (Checking the same 10 markets every morning? Re-reading resolution rules? Tracking which of your positions have news catalysts today?)
  • Anyone here gone the other direction and explicitly decided "no LLMs anywhere near my actual betting decisions"? Why? Bad experiences with hallucinated event facts, or something more principled about how these markets work?

Not looking for prompt tips or "which model is best for research." More interested in the actual integration attempts, what people tried, what broke, what they gave up on.

reddit.com
u/henryk-xyz — 2 months ago

Anyone here actually wire an LLM into their live trading workflow? Curious what broke.

I keep seeing posts across different subreddits and socials about people using ChatGPT/Claude to brainstorm strategies, write backtests, debug Python, etc. Basically using it as a smarter rubber duck before/after the trading day.

What I'm more curious about is the people (if any) who've tried to go further than that. Like, actually plugging an LLM into your live data, positions, broker, or alerts. Not "ChatGPT helped me write this script". More like, "the model is part of the running system or my daily decision loop."

A few specific things I'm trying to understand:

  • Has anyone actually tried this? What were you trying to get it to do, example: summarize positions, flag risk, screen tickers, something else?
  • Where did it fall apart? Hallucinated numbers? Couldn't see real-time data? Too slow? You stopped trusting it?
  • For the people who haven't tried: is that because you don't think there's value, or because the plumbing is too annoying (API keys, data feeds, copy-pasting context, etc.)?
  • What's the dumbest manual thing you do every day that, in theory, a model with access to your data could do, but you haven't bothered to wire it up?
  • Anyone here gone the other direction and explicitly decided "no LLMs anywhere near my live setup"? Why?

Not looking for prompt tips or "which model is best." More interested in the actual integration attempts and what people tried, what broke, what they gave up on.

reddit.com
u/henryk-xyz — 2 months ago

Glacient: set up options and polymarket alerts by just typing what you want in plain English

https://reddit.com/link/1tg8v8y/video/6nmkcgctzs1h1/player

Hey r/Daytrading,

My co-founder and I (ex-Paxos, ex-Big Tech, and ex-IMC Trading) built Glacient because setting up the alerts or workflows we actually wanted was either impossible in our broker or required writing code.

The problem

Every options trader has alerts they'd love to set but can't, because the broker's alert builder is too rigid. Stuff like:

  • "Monitor 30 DTE GOOGL calls roughly 1 standard deviation OTM and let me know when any have delta around 0.2, IV above HV, and IV percentile at 60+"
  • "Ping me if my SPY put's delta crosses -0.3 AND IV rank is under 20"
  • "Alert me 2 days before expiry on any position still ITM"
  • "Tell me if my total portfolio delta flips negative"
  • "Notify me if any of my positions has gamma exposure over X near expiry"

You either click through a clunky rule builder that doesn't support compound logic, or you write a Python script that breaks every so often when an API changes. And execution is coming, but we're being deliberate about it, because an AI agent hallucinating on a monitoring alert is annoying, while one hallucinating on a transaction is unacceptable. Monitoring first, execution when we're sure it's bulletproof. Vibe coding this yourself isn't trivial and it's dangerous.

What Glacient does

You type what you want monitored in plain English, the AI agent turns it into an alert. That's the core loop. No rule builder, no code, no dropdown menus six levels deep.

Under the hood it runs your rules continuously, and pings you when conditions are met. You can chain conditions, compare across positions, and reference Greeks the same way you'd describe them to another trader.

A few examples of alerts users have set up by literally typing them:

  • "Alert me when the GOOGL Call 400 or 410 that expires mid June 2026 has a Delta is less than 0.2 and 0.1, respectively"
  • "Monitor a the Polymarket market if the US will invade Iran before 2027 and alert when YES outcome is above 70%"

What makes it different

Two things:

  1. No-code conditional alerts. Most broker platforms cap out at single-variable alerts ("price crosses X"). Glacient handles compound logic across Greeks, positions, and portfolio-level metrics, set up conversationally.
  2. Cross-venue if you need it. If you also have positions onchain (Aave, Morpho, wallets across ETH/Arb/Base, Polymarket), Glacient pulls those into the same dashboard and the same alert system.

Current state

Alerts only right now for option greeks, morpho and aave for defi, Polymarket for prediction markets. Actual transaction execution is on the roadmap, but we want to nail monitoring first. Free to sign up and try. We're actively iterating based on user feedback.

Site: www.glacient.tech Invite code for r/Daytrading: reddit-daytrading-1010

What I'd love feedback on

  • What alerts have you tried to set up in your broker and given up on?
  • For options day traders specifically: what's the workflow gap that bugs you most?
  • Brokers we should prioritize integrating with? (IBKR, Robinhood, and Tastytrade are top of the list we are thinking)
  • Any Greeks-based or portfolio-level metric we should support that we probably haven't thought of?

Happy to answer anything about the architecture, security model, roadmap, or how the AI agent handles ambiguous requests.

Stills from the video if you can't play it:

https://preview.redd.it/zgvxnl53ws1h1.png?width=2068&format=png&auto=webp&s=6c09aa78a6776a5d3c326f0777014f1e4b9ab125

https://preview.redd.it/1lv596w30t1h1.png?width=2066&format=png&auto=webp&s=5fe80a87f70752507088fe46d1e1d6052eac5123

reddit.com
u/henryk-xyz — 2 months ago