Built a 3 click arb alert tool between Polymarket<> Hyperliquid HIP4 <> Kalshi for the World Cup - Should I continue and expand?
The thing I kept running into: the same outcome would be priced differently on Polymarket vs other prediction markets, sometimes enough to matter after fees, but by the time I'd manually checked both books the gap was gone. I would need to build something one off with claude and have it always running on a box. So I made an easy to use UI to create a bot that watches two venues and alerts me when a gap opens. Made it 3 clicks. I also have a way to configure a webhook that sends the alert to my Openclaw box.
The surprising part: plenty of similar markets diverge by 2%+ on a regular basis. Fees and depth will eat into some of these, but the raw divergences are real. The edges are more common than you'd think once you're actually watching them.
A few details since this crowd will ask:
- It's alerts only. No auto-execution, you keep your own keys and place the trades yourself. It tells you when, not where to sign. More on this below.
- Search isn't World Cup-locked. Any market listed on both venues works. Made it World Cup for fun.
- Alerts go wherever: the UI, Telegram, email, or a webhook (Slack, your personal OpenClaw box for your own execution if you'd like, etc).
- Setup is roughly three clicks to a live alert.
- The alert is re-set once the threshold gap is not met again. There is fatigue control built in as well so you are not spammed once you pass your threshold gap (fatigue control is set to 12 hours, then re-alert).
What I'm actually here for: I want to know where this falls short before I build more. Specifically:
- Should I add auto-execution with you in the approval loop?
- Which other venues would make this useful, if any? (Coinbase, OKX, others?)
- Should I do this with venues outside of prediction markets?
- Should I make this per event for ease of use or a general stand alone tool for being able to choose-your-own-arb?
- Anything about the alert flow that'd make or break it for you?
Happy to answer anything about how it works under the hood.
Try it for free at https://worldcup.glacient.ai