How to beat Necrons: exploiting the T2 dead zone

Time to cover the second major weak spot for Necrons: T2.

If you want the background, read my earlier posts on the T1 weaknesses and the matchup data.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dawnofwar/comments/1vf1fyf/the_most_strongest_and_weakest_races_are/

https://www.reddit.com/r/dawnofwar/comments/1vn12yr/how_to_beat_necrons_in_dowde_1v1/

So, you didn't stick the landing at T1. That's fine. Map layout matters, some rushes are much better on particular maps, and a big enough skill difference can overcome most mechanical advantages. I also deliberately glossed over the exact T1 builds rather than explaining how to make each one land.

I'm going to do those separately, race by race and map by map. If anyone wants to help me record them, let me know. I need a second player because these will mostly be short clips demonstrating specific mechanics rather than normal games.

For now, the important thing is understanding why T2 is probably the easiest point in the game to kill Necrons.

Necrons reach T2, but their army doesn't

The key problem is that reaching T2 gives Necron Warriors no immediate T2 durability upgrade, units or improvements relevant to the normal flow of gameplay.

The Awakened Monolith itself costs 340 power and takes 70 seconds. Once that finishes, the Necron still needs to build the Greater Summoning Core, which has a 90-second base construction time, and then research Enhanced Disruption Field, which has a 55-second base research time.

So after actually reaching T2 there is another:

90s Greater Summoning Core + 55s Enhanced Disruption Field = 145 seconds of base tech time before Warriors get their second meaningful durability upgrade. Builder Scarabs can shorten the building stage and Obelisks reduce research time, so it won't literally take 145 seconds in every game. But the point remains: there is a large second tech chain after T2 before the Warrior army catches up. And DE deliberately made that gap worse.

Enhanced Disruption Field previously took Warriors to 870 HP. DE reduced that to 750 HP, then moved the missing durability into a new T3 upgrade, Superior Disruption Field, which takes another 80 seconds (plus reaching T4 and the additional power for the research itself) to research and eventually raises them to 925 HP. Relic explicitly described the change as making Warriors weaker in the earlier game and stronger later. Previously Necrons reached maximum strength with the upgrade, so it made sense to the upgrade locked behind vehicles, but now they've effectively doubled the cost of their final upgrade and locked it behind T3 so there is a huge window where Necrons are objectively too weak to have any meaningful survivability.

So the situation is:

• You reach T2 and get T2 weapons.
• Necrons reach T2 and start waiting for their T2 upgrade.
• Then they need T3 to recover the durability they used to have at T2.
• Necrons spend 425 power (previously 200) and progress from T1>T3 to match their previous T2 strength.

That is the window you want to exploit.

Most of what you're shooting is Heavy Infantry

Warriors, Flayed Ones, Wraiths and Immortals are Heavy Infantry, so at T2 you should be moving directly towards whatever your race uses to punish Heavy Infantry.

Some obvious examples:

Army	T2 pressure
Space Marines	Plasma Guns; Grey Knights
Chaos	Plasma Guns; Khorne Berzerkers
Imperial Guard	Guardsmen Plasma Guns; Psykers
Sisters	Battle Sister Heavy Bolters
Eldar	Continue massing Dark Reapers / ranged focus
Tau	Fire Warrior mass with T2 ranged upgrades
Dark Eldar	Mobile concentrated ranged pressure
Orks	Big Shootas backed by fast melee

The exact race builds will be separate posts, but several of the timings show how bad this gap is.

• A Space Marine Plasma Gun takes only 15 seconds to fit once the Monastery and Armoury prerequisites exist.
• Chaos Plasma Guns take 12 seconds each once the Unholy Monastery and Chaos Armoury are available.
• IG Plasma Guns take 15 seconds each once Battle Command and the Tactica Control are available.
• Battle Sister Heavy Bolters take 12 seconds each once the Cathedral and Pristine Sanctuary are available.
• Compare those 12–15 second weapon upgrades with the Necron's Greater Summoning Core → Enhanced Disruption Field path.
• You don't need to wait until your whole army is perfect. Get the appropriate weapons online and push while the Necron is still waiting to even reach T2.

You probably have the stronger economy as well

This is something that gets missed because Necrons display big power numbers.

A normal fully upgraded T2 Listening Post produces +24 requisition. Three of them produce +72, and a conventional HQ produces another +20, giving you about +92 requisition before global economy upgrades.

Compare that with Necrons.

A Necron generator produces +10 power, as does the Monolith. So nine generators + the Monolith = +100 power.

Numerically those look similar:

Economy remaining	Base income
3 × LP3 + HQ	+92 requisition
9 Necron generators + Monolith	+100 power

But getting nine Necron generators is enormously more expensive than the number suggests.

The first generator is free, then each successive generator costs another 25 power:

0 + 25 + 50 + 75 + 100 + 125 + 150 + 175 + 200 = 900 power.

Their build time also increases by 22% for every existing generator. Starting from 45 seconds, the nominal individual build times are roughly:

45 → 55 → 67 → 82 → 100 → 122 → 148 → 181 → 221 seconds.

Multiple Scarabs obviously build them in parallel, but that doesn't remove the cost or the escalating individual build time.

And unlike conventional Listening Posts, upgrading Necron Obelisks provides no additional resources at all; they only marginally improve defence and the Necron time bonus is almost always locked out of 100%. Obelisks are mostly about preventing you from getting an LP rather than being directly useful to Necrons.

Requisition and power aren't literally interchangeable currencies, but in practical army-production terms three LP3s can leave a conventional army in a better fighting position than a Necron economy built around nine generators. Your requisition is buying comparatively cheap squads and replacements while Necron power is simultaneously paying for units, reinforcement, buildings, tech, upgrades and now teleportation. Realistically, unit costs are roughly equal anyway, so more-or-less, 100 power for necrons = 100 Requisition for everyone else.

This matters when you think you're losing the map.

If you've been pushed back but still have three upgraded LPs, you are absolutely still in the game.

Get the right unit or weapon and attack. The Necron player may have more territory, but they're paying an enormous economic premium just to keep their army and tech moving.

The most important rule: if they teleport, chase them

This is probably the biggest mistake I see players make against Necrons. They win the engagement, the Necron army uses Summoning to retreat, and they stop and regroup.

Don't.

You can see where Necron units teleport to (most likely a bug). Summoning sends the squad to one of the Necron player's buildings, so watch the teleport and run directly towards where they reappear. Warriors have a 120-second Summoning cooldown. Flayed Ones have a shorter 75-second cooldown, but they're still committed once they've used it. That means a Warrior squad which just escaped cannot simply teleport away again when you arrive. You have roughly two minutes before that escape resets.

If the Necron player teleported because they were losing, you're now pursuing:

• damaged units;
• slow units;
• units that are reinforcing;
• an army spending power to recover;
• an army still waiting for its T2 tech;
• and Warriors which no longer have their escape available.

Follow them. It is T2, they're functionally weaker than you, you have the anti-Heavy weapons, go for the army wipe immediately.

The DE teleport changes make this even worse

There are also an undocumented DE change that make retreating much less reliable.

Summoning now costs 20 power per teleport.

There is also a reinforcement interaction where reinforcing creates a cooldown that can prevent a squad from teleporting. Together they create a ridiculous feedback loop:

take damage → reinforce → spend power → can't teleport → take more damage → reinforce again → still can't teleport.

It also means an army often can't teleport together. Some squads are ready, some are reinforcing, and the player either has to leave units behind or wait while the whole army continues taking damage. If some squads escape and others don't, kill the ones left behind first, then follow the teleport. This is one of the ways an apparently healthy Necron army can suddenly disappear completely.

Teleport doesn't even reliably escape damage

There is another interaction which is almost certainly a bug. Some attacks which have already begun continue to damage Necron units after they teleport away. Two particularly useful examples are:

Space Marine Orbital Bombardment and Imperial Guard Psyker abilities.

Orbital Bombardment has a 3.5-second setup, then drops its barrage over 30 seconds. If the attack has already committed as the Necron teleports, the teleport does not reliably give them a clean escape from the damage. This also applies to the Lord!

IG Psykers are even more useful. Strip Soul targets Infantry/Heavy Infantry and hits for 510 damage against Heavy Infantry, while Lightning Arc becomes available at Battle Command and hits the entire target squad. Both have 180-second cooldowns.

In DE, if these effects have already started when the Necron teleports, they can continue resolving on the unit after it disappears. Whether that's intended or not, use it. Even if the teleport saves the squad, it can arrive at the destination already badly damaged, which makes the second engagement considerably easier. So if you use a special ability and you see Necrons teleport to avoid it, they didn't avoid it and you should immediately pursue.

Solar Pulse is a white flag, so commit a war crime

Solar Pulse used to be one of the better ways Necrons could survive concentrated ranged fire. It has now been nerfed again from an 80-second to a 90-second cooldown. In practice its useful area is also small enough that a ranged army can reposition around it and shoot across it (this is from the previous nerf). Against a normal firing line it often buys the Necron player only 2–3 seconds of actual protection while you move your units to a position where they can fire from again.

Most players see Solar Pulse and retreat. If the Necron is using it defensively because they're losing, that's often the wrong response.

Move around the edge, move through it, or use those few seconds to get between the Necron army and where it wants to go. Cut them off, they're using it to stay alive while retreating (most of the time). Once it's gone, they don't have another Solar Pulse for 90 seconds. Another way to frame how cooked it is, the cooldown period is 7.5% of a 20 minute game for an action that causes no damage.

Don't shoot the bait

The Necron Lord can be very hard to kill at T2 if the player has invested in him. That doesn't mean he's the thing you should be shooting. If the Lord is standing in front of six Warriors trying to absorb your fire, he's bait. Kill the Warriors.

The latest patch actually reduced Phylactery's ranged damage reduction from 60% to 55%, but the Lord can still waste a huge amount of your time if you let him. This was a pointless nerf, the Necron Lord does such little damage on his own that he's best ignored anyway.

The same thing applies to Wraiths. If one uses Phase Shift, stop shooting it and retarget. This is just part of the micro against Necrons. Wraith Flight has also just been nerfed from 80% ranged damage reduction to 76%. In actual damage received, that's 20% → 24%, meaning an upgraded Wraith now takes 20% more ranged damage than before. This was an entirely unnecessary nerf, Wraiths can tie things up. They can't make you shoot them. They're only effective against Eldar and Tau in combat, but for every other army they're just a distraction based around Phase Shift.

Flayed Ones stop being scary if you kite them

Flayed Ones get +150 HP per model when the Monolith reaches T2, so they aren't literally unchanged but they're still the slowest unit, a Heavy Infantry squad trying to reach armies that have just gained T2 anti-Heavy-Infantry weapons. Don't stand there fighting them Kite and focus fire and they will last a few seconds at most. This is incredibly punishing for Necrons as they became more expensive in DE: squad cost increased from 120 → 130 power and reinforcement from 30 → 35 power. So killing them also hurts the Necron economy more than it used to and they're effectively dead weight at T2.

Dedicated T2 rushes can make the gap even worse

On larger maps the Necron's movement speed makes specialised fast-tech strategies particularly difficult to answer because the Necron player often needs to recognise what you're doing before the unit actually appears.

Two obvious examples:

Unit	Realistic dedicated rush
Khorne Berzerkers	~2:35–3:00
Grey Knights	~3:00–3:20

Berzerkers themselves only take 32 seconds to produce once Chaos has T2 and the Sacrificial Circle. Grey Knights take 30 seconds once the Monastery and Sacred Artifact prerequisites are met. The point isn't that these units are mathematically invincible against Necrons. The problem is what efficient answer the Necron can have ready when they arrive?

If the Necron has pursued the normal build path, they haven't even reached T2 before these units have engaged (minimum time is ~4:00, and that's a hard tech - you build nothing except generators and the Summoning Core). Even if they could get to T2, there are no units available that improve their survivability until after the Greater Summoning Core!

If they abandon that path to counter your rush, the Warrior upgrade gets pushed back even further. I've got a replay where a Chaos player rushed all the way to Possessed Ones while I was still T1. I won, but only because I recognised the player and already knew what he was going to do.

That's the problem with these builds against Necrons: the counter often needs to begin before the Necron actually knows what they're countering.

Vehicles are the next bottleneck

The Greater Summoning Core isn't just needed for Enhanced Disruption Field it also unlocks Destroyers and Tomb Spyders. The old Relic guide actually describes early Necron T2 as weak compared with other races for exactly this reason. Destroyers are the first useful mobile ranged answer to a lot of this pressure, and the only answer to Heavy Infantry.

But even they can be disrupted very cheaply. If you've got disposable infantry - Scouts, Cultists, etc.- put them into melee with the Destroyer. A vehicle being tied up by cheap infantry isn't contributing its ranged fire while your useful units keep killing Warriors.

Immortals don't solve the infantry problem either. They're primarily there to kill vehicles and buildings, not to replace the anti-infantry role of a Destroyer. They do no effective damage.

So again the Necron player is choosing: Do I spend my power and time making Warriors survive, or do I spend it diversifying into vehicles? Doing one delays the other.

Keep killing units even if the fight looks close

This is where the T1 production problem rolls straight into T2.

Every squad the Necron loses costs them power, replacement time and production capacity at exactly the point where they're also trying to fund:

• the 340-power T2 upgrade;
• a 250-power Greater Summoning Core;
• Warrior upgrades;
• vehicles;
• reinforcement;
• artifacts;
• generators;
• and 20-power teleports.

The latest DE changes also explicitly increased Flayed One costs and made it harder to bypass Warrior scaling through Tomb Spyder corpse production. So if you kill one squad, don't consolidate. keep pushing! One dead squad means less army protecting the next squad. More reinforcing means less power for tech. Less tech means the T2 dead zone lasts longer.

That is how the whole thing spirals out of control.

The actual strategy is simple

You don't need some secret anti-Necron build.

At T2:

• Get your Heavy-Infantry counter online.
• Push before Enhanced Disruption Field.
• Focus Warriors.
• Kite Flayed Ones.
• Retarget Phase-Shifted Wraiths.
• Don't waste your army shooting the Lord.
• If Solar Pulse goes down, reposition instead of abandoning the fight.
• If they teleport, WATCH WHERE THEY GO AND RUN STRAIGHT THERE. Their Warriors cannot teleport again for 120 seconds.
• Use attacks like Orbital Bombardment and Psyker abilities before the retreat, because damage already in progress can follow them through the teleport.
• And don't assume you've economically lost just because they've taken the map. Three LP3s still give you +72 requisition, +92 with your HQ, which is enough economy to produce the correct counter and keep fighting.

The main thing to understand is that Necron T2 isn't really a power spike. It's a dead zone between reaching T3 and finally getting the upgrades and vehicles that make T2 work.

Their economy is expensive, their core infantry is sitting in exactly the armour class your new weapons are designed to kill, they struggle to disengage, and DE has moved part of their old T2 durability into T3. They are the only army where a single weapon upgrade from an opponent presents complete death spiral. Because of the way things are timed, you have a lot of time to apply this pressure and push it.

Necrons are currently the weakest army in the game (v2.10.0), in a very predictable way. Once you understand how these game mechanics are applied, fights become much simpler as they're mostly about timing attacks against the upgrade windows.

There are two main windows where it happens:

1. Before 2m30s where Necron production is still coming online.
2. The gap between Necrons getting the first warrior upgrade and the second one where all armies can field units Necrons can't answer.

To exploit this isn't 'zero skill', you still have to try, but if you do apply it correctly Necrons will have zero response.

I probably won't cover every strategy, but if you ask about issues you've had with them I'll talk you through it if I missed it.

1. Early game timing is a significant vulnerability as every army can deploy a larger force much faster than Necrons.

*Note, I haven't stopwatched the timings for every opening, for the most part they're still similar to SS which you can find online.

Race	Comparable opening force	Approx. force ready

Necrons	3 Scarabs + Lord + 2 Warriors	~2:40–3:00

Eldar	3 Dark Reapers	~2:00

Space Marines	3 Marine squads	~1:55–2:05

Space Marines	5 Scout squads	~1:00–1:10

Tau	Vespids + Kroot	~1:00–1:05

Tau	2 Fire Warriors + Commander	~2:05–2:15

Imperial Guard	Command Squad + 1–2 Guardsmen	~1:00–1:05

Dark Eldar	Mandrakes + Archon + Warrior squad	~2:05

Chaos	3 Chaos Marine squads, Forced Labour	~1:35–1:40

Chaos	5 Cultists + Armoury + grenade launchers	~1:15

Orks	Big Mek + 2 Shoota Boy squads	~2:00–2:10

Sisters	3 Seraphim squads	~2:20–2:30

Fundamentally, the first Necron problem is that they start the game late. A normal opening of 3 Scarab squads, a Necron Lord and 2 Warrior squads takes roughly 2:40–3:00 to get onto the field because every unit comes from the same Monolith and Warrior build time increases as more Warriors exist. Compare that with what other armies and you quickly realise how quickly Necrons can be eclipsed.

The exact strategy you implement will be slightly different per army and combo, but in the early game you will always, by a significant margin, be able to eclipse the defensive fire power of Necrons.

Strategy.
Targeting the Warriors
With the exception of the combined Kroot/Vespid rush, don't attack the power gens or obelisks, instead focus on flattening the warriors. Group up your units quickly, and kite the warriors. If you can wipe out a warrior squad that will set the Necron player back a minimum of 82s (the time it takes to build the second squad), which is enough time to build 3 Marine squads.

During a rush move, you're better off progressing your LPs slowly; losing one to a decap is more annoying than not getting one at all. Remember, the Necron economy is the slowest, most expensive and least effective in the game (I'll cover this more in a bit), and sure destroying a generator is a massive hit, but the goal of the rush is to choke the army out of existence. If you can destroy even one warrior squad, you can continue to scale an army while the Necrons are trapped trying to build their first unit. If you can force them to choke out with no units, then their economy doesn't matter.

The biggest mistake I see here, is when people go for a very fast lightweight rush, like scouts, they completely abandon securing requisition. If the Necron player can get a tough unit out, like a Lord and Flayed ones, they can damage the opposition base enough to reset the game.

Targeting the Generators

The other half of the early-game problem is the Necron economy. Around +70 power is effectively the minimum needed to keep a competitive T1 economy running, but getting to +70 requires seven generators.

A worked example shows the problem:

Economy	Buildings	Gross cost	Production	Combined build time
Normal army	3 Listening Posts	300 req	+36 req from the 3 controlled points	90s
Normal army	6 Listening Posts	600 req	+72 req from the 6 controlled points	180s
Necrons	6 Generators	375 power	+70 power	~500s

The Necron calculation is 0 + 25 + 50 + 75 + 100 + 125 + 150 = 525 power just to establish +70 income. The generator build times also escalate roughly 45 → 55 → 67 → 82 → 100 → 122 → 149 seconds.

The 6 LP comparison is actually generous: a normal LP also gives 50 requisition back when completed, so six LPs have historically represented only 300 requisition of net economic investment, while also securing six strategic points. Necrons don't get a completion bonus, every generator is a fully sunk cost. Realistically you need more to be competitive as Necrons, but due to the time constraint its almost impossible to get past 9 generators in a game.

Necrons therefore have to sink a huge amount of their only spendable resource and Builder Scarab time into infrastructure simply to reach a functional production rate. Those same Scarabs are also the only units that can capture points and build the Obelisks needed to improve Necron production speed.

Necrons need to rush their generators early, they take so long to come online, combined with the amount of time it takes for them to field an army, that if they don't rush them out they won't be finished for 10m if they let them build progressively instead of in parallel. This feeds into why Necrons have a low early unit count; if they don't build generators then they're minutes behind their opposition.

That is why generator rushing is so destructive.

You can exploit this in early game; if you see Warriors out of the base, before there is a Summoning core, they can't teleport back to defend the generators. If you have heavy hitting units like Dark Reapers, or Marines, just head in and take out a generator. Scarabs usually can't repair fast enough to save a generator, and while they're repairing it consumes so much power (it scales with the number of generators) that you can flatten the economy preventing their units from reinforcing.

You need to make sure your units can finish the job, because if you push in and tank damage it needs to be worth it.

Kiting is Easy - The conclusion
Necrons are the slowest moving army, and have short range. Killing warriors is as simple as amassing your larger army faster, and kiting them. If they can't teleport, they can't escape and you will secure a squad wipe.

The easiest strategy is just to use a stronger unit, like a Fire Warrior, Dark Reaper, SM etc and out range the warriors and go for squad wipes early.

The more aggressive strategies like a scout rush, or the Vespid/Kroot rush can be very effective, but if you can't quite time everything and the Necron player survives, you've harmed your mid-game move. Generally speaking, taking the longest range unit you can is the most winning move as it scales into the T2 issues.

Other notes:
-Flayed Ones are the slowest unit in the game, if you see them, you know, just walk away? Sometimes a Necron player will spam them into your base (this is always a last ditch move) to draw fire out of their base. Just build another unit building/power gen/etc. Its a lot cheaper for you to do that, than it is for Necrons to build another power generator.
-Wraiths at tech one are made from glass and they take a long time to build. If a player has pushed them early anticipating a Dark Reaper Rush, that means they've forgone power generation to get the Summoning core up, and have spent 36-45s per Wraith making them. They need at least 1 per shooting unit to keep them occupied long enough warriors to survive. You should always be able to outnumber them, and a 2:1 ratio in the early game means the Wraiths shouldn't make it into combat. If they do, withdraw your units to an upgraded listening post and they'll drop dead in a few seconds.
-Upgraded Obelisks are pretty useless. They're a one trick pony, if the player uses it that is your indication to push hard because they can't use it again.
-The Lord can teleport around, ignore him. He is bait. If the lord makes it into your base and starts damaging things, just repair it, and build new ones. That early in the game he has nothing and is just trying to lure you away from critical resources.
-Turret rushes are extremely expensive, it costs a Scarab, Power and building time in a way that meaningfully impacts the economy for Necrons. The most effective thing you can do, is ignore the turret and attack a different point. This make the turret costs sunk which hurts Necrons more than it hurts you for the area control.

I'll finish another post later specifically about the T2 gap - which is significantly more extreme. It's possible for you to be 'losing', get the right weapon upgrade or unit, and win within a few seconds (depending on your army). If you can get good at delivering the correct move early on, it will be very rare that a Necron game gets past T1.

If you have questions about specific armies/units and how to defeat Necrons in the early game, I'll do my best to answer it.

Don't Dead, Open Inside

I don't know who was such a fan that this is the cake they requested, but mum nailed it!

The old wisdom is wrong and it always was. Combine that with the tweaks and bugs since DOW-DE came out has magnified the difference between what people think are the strongest/weakest and what is.

For those who don't want to read or understand the long post, objectively Dark Eldar are the most positively imbalanced race (strongest). Tau and Chaos will also hold that place under different statistical models but DE holds that position consistently. Necrons are objectively the most negatively imbalanced race (weakest) under but Eldar can underperform under some statistical models. There is a conclusion at the very end.

For those of you who are less set in your ways and want to understand how I got to this conclusion, it is a longer story. I lay everything out, so you can verify it yourself if you're into that.

I began with www.dow-de.com where you can look up race match-ups. The site shows:

• each race’s overall win rate;
• the win rate of every race against every other race;
• the number of games in each matchup;
• separate results for all games, 1200+ MMR and 1400+ MMR.
• The raw data already tells us a lot, but the displayed overall win rate is not enough on its own.

A race’s overall win rate depends on both:

• how strong it is in each matchup; and
• how often it encounters each opponent.

1400+ matchups

1200+ matchups

All matchups

This data on its own can tell you most of what you need to know, but only if you look into it a bit deeper. A race can have an inflated overall win rate because it frequently encounters one or two favourable opponents. Another race can be favoured against almost the entire field but have a lower overall rate because its most common matchups are relatively close. This means that representing the overall win rate isn't the right way to look at the data. Instead it is better to ask:

• Which race is advantaged against the largest proportion of the field?
• How large are those advantages?
• How consistent are they?
• Are the results statistically credible, or are they being driven by small samples?

I made several assumptions about how MMR would affect the results.

All games

The complete population will contain inexperienced players, unfamiliarity with matchups, incomplete build orders, execution errors and players experimenting with strategies.

This bracket is useful for measuring the ordinary player experience, but it is not necessarily the best indicator of the game’s structural balance.

1200+ MMR

The 1200+ bracket should be more representative of competent normal play.

Players at this level are more likely to:

• understand common openings;
• know the basic counters;
• execute established strategies;
• recognise obvious matchup mechanics;
• punish major mistakes.

This bracket probably gives the best picture of balance in ordinary competitive play.

1400+ MMR

The 1400+ bracket contains players with the knowledge and execution needed to exploit the strongest mechanics available to each race.

This includes difficult build orders, highly optimised timings, abusive interactions, matchup-specific strategies and what people would commonly call cheese.

For that reason, I treated 1400+ as the bracket most likely to expose structural imbalance.

That interpretation cannot be proven from the matchup table alone. Player specialisation, maps and population differences may also contribute. However, the data behaves in the direction the hypothesis predicts: matchup results become much more extreme as MMR increases.

The statistical models

I used several models because no single number captures every form of imbalance.

1. Overall win rate

This is the normal figure shown on the site.

It answers:

Of all games played by this race, what percentage did it win?

It is useful, but it is affected by matchup frequency.

If a race repeatedly encounters opponents it counters, its overall win rate rises. If it frequently encounters its own counters, its overall win rate falls.

This makes overall win rate partly a measure of race strength and partly a measure of the current opponent population.

2. Equal-opponent average

For this model, every opposing race receives equal weight.

Instead of allowing a common matchup to dominate the result, the eight non-mirror matchups are simply averaged.

It answers: How would this race perform if every opposing race were encountered equally often?

This is one of the most useful corrections to the raw overall win rate.

3. Matchup breadth

This counts how many races a faction is above or below 50% against.

For example:

• seven favourable matchups and one unfavourable matchup is extremely broad strength;
• four favourable and four unfavourable matchups is a neutral spread;
• two favourable and six unfavourable matchups indicates broad weakness.

I also calculated a Copeland-style score:

• favourable matchups minus unfavourable matchups.
• This model measures how widely a race’s advantage applies.

It does not, however, account for the size of each advantage. Winning five matchups at 50.5% is not the same as winning five at 60%.

4. Median matchup

The median identifies the middle result among a race’s eight non-mirror matchups.

It is less affected by one enormous win or loss.

This matters for races such as Tau, whose average can be distorted by a small number of extreme matchups.

The median answers:

• What does the race’s typical matchup look like?

5. Strong-matchup count

I separately counted matchups at:

55% or higher;

45% or lower.

This distinguishes minor statistical advantages from severe balance problems.

A 50.8% matchup is technically favourable. A 61% matchup is a different class of problem.

6. Bradley–Terry model

The Bradley–Terry model estimates a hidden or latent strength value from the complete network of pairwise results.

In simpler terms, it asks:

• What single underlying race strength best explains all of these matchup outcomes?

It then estimates how each race would perform against an equally represented field.

This is useful because every result is interpreted in relation to the strength of the opponents involved.
7. Statistical significance

Every reported win rate contains sampling uncertainty.

A 60% result across 50 games is much less reliable than a 53% result across 3,000 games.

I therefore calculated:

• approximate significance tests against 50%;
• 95% Wilson confidence intervals;
• Benjamini–Hochberg false-discovery correction.

The correction matters because there are 36 unique race pairings in each skill bracket. When many tests are performed, some apparently significant results will occur by chance.

8. Practical significance

A result can be statistically significant without being meaningfully imbalanced.

With enough games, even 50.7% may become statistically distinguishable from 50%.

I therefore also used a practical threshold requiring the matchup to be at least 2.5 percentage points from neutral.

This model asks:

• Is the result both statistically credible and large enough to matter?

9. Matchup polarisation

I calculated the standard deviation of each race’s eight matchup rates.

A low standard deviation means the race performs similarly across the field.

A high standard deviation means the race is highly matchup-dependent.

This distinguishes:

• broadly strong races;
• broadly weak races;
• counter-pick races with extreme wins and losses.

10. Normal-distribution modelling

I fitted normal curves to the matchup results to visualise:

• the centre of each race’s matchup distribution;
• the width of that distribution;
• the difference between consistent and polarised races;
• how the total matchup spread changes with MMR.

The normal curves are descriptive models. Eight matchups are not enough to prove that a race’s matchup results are truly normally distributed.

Their purpose is to make the centre and spread easier to compare.

Results

All games

The complete population does not produce one undisputed strongest race.

Dark Eldar lead the displayed overall win rate and the Bradley–Terry model.

They have:

• a 51.8% displayed overall win rate;
• a 51.6% equal-opponent average;
• five favourable matchups;
• three unfavourable matchups;
• the highest fitted Bradley–Terry strength.

However, Sisters of Battle are stronger under the consistency and breadth models.

They have:

• a 52.1% equal-opponent average;
• a 52.8% median matchup;
• five favourable and three unfavourable matchups;
• the lowest matchup volatility among the leading races;
• no severe losing matchup.

Sisters therefore have the strongest case for being the most consistently powerful race across the complete player population.

Dark Eldar have the strongest case for the highest underlying fitted strength.

The important result is that neither conclusion resembles the conventional idea that Eldar or other commonly complained-about factions must automatically be the strongest.

1200+ MMR

At 1200+, the result is much clearer.

Imperial Guard are the strongest race under essentially every major model.

Their results include:

• 54.1% overall win rate;
• 54.7% equal-opponent average;
• 54.8% median matchup;
• six favourable matchups;
• one unfavourable matchup;
• one tied matchup;
• the highest Bradley–Terry estimate;
• the strongest statistically reliable matchup record.

This is not a case of one extreme matchup inflating the average. Imperial Guard are broadly favoured across the field. At the level that most closely resembles competent ordinary competitive play, Imperial Guard are the clearest balance outlier.

1400+ MMR

At 1400+, Dark Eldar are the strongest race.

Their matchup record is:

• seven favourable matchups;
• one unfavourable matchup.

That alone is extraordinary. Their other results support the same conclusion:

• 54.5% overall win rate;
• 55.8% equal-opponent average;
• 54.0% median matchup;
• highest Bradley–Terry strength;
• strong results under practical-effect models;
• broad advantages rather than dependence on one opponent.

Their only losing matchup is against Imperial Guard, at 46.7%.

Dark Eldar are not simply achieving a high average because of one distorted pairing. They are beating almost the entire field. That is the strongest evidence of positive imbalance in the dataset.

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Why Tau can appear strongest

Tau have the highest displayed 1400+ overall win rate at approximately 53.6% in the source data and lead some significance-based models.

They also have several enormous results:

• 77.0% against Eldar;
• 64.5% against Imperial Guard;
• 50.8% against Orks;
• 50.8% against Space Marines.

However, Tau also have major losing matchups:

• 34.6% against Chaos;
• 42.0% against Necrons;
• 46.6% against Sisters;
• 46.9% against Dark Eldar.

Their non-mirror matchup record is only four favourable and four unfavourable.

Their median matchup is below 50%.

Tau are therefore not universally strong. They are extremely polarised.

Their high overall result reflects a small number of severe advantages rather than broad dominance across the field. This is still a balance problem, but it is a different type of balance problem from Dark Eldar.

Dark Eldar are broadly overpowered. Tau are matchup-warping.

Why Chaos can appear strongest

Chaos lead the 1400+ median model. Their median matchup is approximately 55%, meaning their typical matchup is exceptionally strong.

They also have:

• five favourable matchups;
• three unfavourable matchups;
• strong results against Tau, Orks and Sisters;
• an equal-opponent average above 53%.

Chaos therefore have a credible claim under models that prioritise the typical matchup and resistance to individual outliers. However, they do not have Dark Eldar’s seven-to-one breadth advantage. Chaos are one of the strongest races at high MMR, but Dark Eldar have the more complete statistical case.

The weakest races

At 1400+, Necrons have the strongest overall case for being the weakest race.

They have:

• the lowest displayed overall win rate;
• the lowest Bradley–Terry estimate;
• only three favourable matchups;
• five unfavourable matchups;
• severe losses against Space Marines, Chaos and Sisters.

Their 31.7% result against Space Marines is particularly extreme.

However, it would be inaccurate to say that Necrons are last under literally every model.

Eldar have:

• the lowest equal-opponent average;
• the lowest median matchup;
• only two favourable matchups;
• six unfavourable matchups;
• a catastrophic 23% result against Tau.

The more accurate conclusion is:

Necrons are the weakest race under the overall and fitted-strength models, while Eldar are the weakest under several breadth and typical-matchup models.

Both races are negatively imbalanced at 1400+

What the data actually says

The results do not support a single permanent tier list that applies at every skill level. They show that balance changes with player competence.

Across all games

• Sisters are the most consistently strong.
• Dark Eldar have the highest fitted underlying strength.
• Orks are among the weakest under most broad models.

At 1200+

• Imperial Guard are decisively strongest.
• The result is broad and not dependent on one matchup.
• Chaos and Eldar are among the weakest, depending on the model.

At 1400+

• Dark Eldar are the strongest overall race.
• Chaos have the strongest typical matchup under the median model.
• Tau lead some significance models because of several extreme advantages.
• Necrons and Eldar are the two clearest negatively imbalanced races.

All Games — Model Rankings

Statistical model	Strongest to weakest
Overall win rate	Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard > Eldar > Tau > Chaos > Necrons = Space Marines > Orks
Equal-opponent average	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar > Tau > Imperial Guard > Necrons > Chaos > Space Marines > Eldar > Orks
Median matchup	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar > Tau > Imperial Guard > Chaos > Space Marines > Eldar > Necrons > Orks
Matchup breadth / Copeland score	Dark Eldar = Sisters of Battle > Chaos = Imperial Guard = Necrons = Orks = Tau > Eldar = Space Marines
Material-effect breadth	Dark Eldar > Necrons = Sisters of Battle > Eldar = Imperial Guard = Tau > Chaos = Space Marines > Orks
Bradley–Terry strength	Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard > Eldar > Tau > Chaos > Space Marines > Necrons > Orks
Statistically reliable matchup net	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar > Chaos = Eldar = Imperial Guard > Necrons = Space Marines = Tau > Orks
Practical and statistically reliable net	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar = Imperial Guard > Chaos = Eldar > Necrons = Space Marines = Tau > Orks
Bayesian practical-effect net	Dark Eldar > Imperial Guard = Necrons = Sisters of Battle > Tau > Chaos = Eldar = Orks > Space Marines
Matchup consistency	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar > Tau > Imperial Guard > Necrons > Chaos > Eldar > Space Marines > Orks
Consolidated model	Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar > Imperial Guard > Tau > Chaos > Eldar > Necrons > Space Marines > Orks

All Games — Matchup Breadth

Rank	Race	Favourable	Unfavourable	Tied	Net score
1=	Dark Eldar	5	3	0	+2
1=	Sisters of Battle	5	3	0	+2
3=	Chaos	4	4	0	0
3=	Imperial Guard	4	4	0	0
3=	Necrons	4	4	0	0
3=	Orks	4	4	0	0
3=	Tau	4	4	0	0
8=	Eldar	3	5	0	−2
8=	Space Marines	3	5	0	−2

1200+ MMR — Model Rankings

Statistical model	Strongest to weakest
Overall win rate	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle = Tau > Orks > Eldar > Necrons > Chaos = Space Marines
Equal-opponent average	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Tau > Sisters of Battle > Orks > Necrons > Chaos > Space Marines > Eldar
Median matchup	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Tau > Space Marines > Orks > Necrons > Chaos > Eldar
Matchup breadth / Copeland score	Imperial Guard > Sisters of Battle > Dark Eldar = Tau > Space Marines > Necrons > Chaos = Orks > Eldar
Material-effect breadth	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar = Sisters of Battle > Orks = Tau > Eldar = Necrons > Chaos = Space Marines
Bradley–Terry strength	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Tau > Sisters of Battle > Orks > Eldar > Necrons > Space Marines > Chaos
Statistically reliable matchup net	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar = Sisters of Battle > Necrons = Tau > Eldar = Orks > Chaos = Space Marines
Practical and statistically reliable net	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar = Sisters of Battle > Necrons = Tau > Eldar = Orks > Chaos = Space Marines
Bayesian practical-effect net	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar = Sisters of Battle > Eldar = Necrons = Tau > Orks > Chaos = Space Marines
Matchup consistency	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Tau > Orks > Necrons > Eldar > Space Marines > Chaos
Consolidated model	Imperial Guard > Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Tau > Orks > Necrons > Space Marines > Eldar > Chaos

1200+ MMR — Matchup Breadth

Rank	Race	Favourable	Unfavourable	Tied	Net score
1	Imperial Guard	6	1	1	+5
2	Sisters of Battle	5	3	0	+2
3=	Dark Eldar	4	3	1	+1
3=	Tau	4	3	1	+1
5	Space Marines	4	4	0	0
6	Necrons	3	4	1	−1
7=	Chaos	3	5	0	−2
7=	Orks	3	5	0	−2
9	Eldar	2	6	0	−4

1400+ MMR — Model Rankings

Statistical model	Strongest to weakest
Overall win rate	Dark Eldar > Tau > Chaos > Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard > Space Marines > Orks > Eldar > Necrons
Equal-opponent average	Dark Eldar > Chaos > Sisters of Battle > Tau > Imperial Guard > Orks > Space Marines > Necrons > Eldar
Median matchup	Chaos > Dark Eldar > Imperial Guard > Sisters of Battle > Orks > Tau > Space Marines > Necrons > Eldar
Matchup breadth / Copeland score	Dark Eldar > Chaos = Imperial Guard > Sisters of Battle = Tau > Necrons = Orks = Space Marines > Eldar
Material-effect breadth	Dark Eldar > Chaos = Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard = Tau > Orks = Space Marines > Necrons > Eldar
Bradley–Terry strength	Dark Eldar > Tau > Chaos > Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard > Space Marines > Orks > Eldar > Necrons
Statistically reliable matchup net	Tau > Dark Eldar > Chaos = Eldar = Orks = Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard = Necrons = Space Marines
Practical and statistically reliable net	Tau > Dark Eldar > Chaos = Eldar = Orks = Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard = Necrons = Space Marines
Bayesian practical-effect net	Dark Eldar > Chaos = Sisters of Battle = Tau > Eldar > Imperial Guard = Orks = Space Marines > Necrons
Matchup consistency	Dark Eldar > Sisters of Battle > Chaos > Tau > Imperial Guard > Space Marines > Orks > Necrons > Eldar
Consolidated model	Dark Eldar > Chaos > Tau > Sisters of Battle > Imperial Guard > Orks > Space Marines > Eldar > Necrons

1400+ MMR — Matchup Breadth

Rank	Race	Favourable	Unfavourable	Tied	Net score
1	Dark Eldar	7	1	0	+6
2=	Chaos	5	3	0	+2
2=	Imperial Guard	5	3	0	+2
4=	Sisters of Battle	4	4	0	0
4=	Tau	4	4	0	0
6=	Necrons	3	5	0	−2
6=	Orks	3	5	0	−2
6=	Space Marines	3	5	0	−2
9	Eldar	2	6	0	−4

Consolidated Race Rankings

Rank	All games	1200+ MMR	1400+ MMR
1	Sisters of Battle	Imperial Guard	Dark Eldar
2	Dark Eldar	Dark Eldar	Chaos
3	Imperial Guard	Sisters of Battle	Tau
4	Tau	Tau	Sisters of Battle
5	Chaos	Orks	Imperial Guard
6	Eldar	Necrons	Orks
7	Necrons	Space Marines	Space Marines
8	Space Marines	Eldar	Eldar
9	Orks	Chaos	Necrons

Conclusion
There are major fundamental issues in the game balance. Most of these were introduced when Soulstorm was released, but they've been substantially exacerbated with the rebalance completed by Relic. It is clear that the rebalance took place by talking to people who pay competitively and 'don't like' a game mechanic rather than actually trying to focus on fair or interesting game play.

The next thing is that Eldar are not the strongest army, and the nerfs are substantially punishing, that on its own should demonstrate that the 'old wisdom' is wrong.

The change in the best and worst ranking as skill progresses demonstrates the technical skill required to play races; which is why Orks climb, they require more skill to play with their Waaggh mechanic.

Necrons are last because there are fundamental faults in the game mechanics (which didn't exist in Dark Crusade to the same extent) which every race can exploit against them. The more aware/skilled a player is the more this magnifies.

As much fun as this game is, it would be really nice if after 20+ years that they could fix it. Also, stop calling me a ****** every time I beat you with Necrons.

Where can you report bugs for DOW DE? Since the last update there has been a bug with Necrons where they won't teleport if they're being shot at, so it is a guaranteed squad wipe with no escape.

It doesn't happen all the time, but it is extremely annoying when it happens because it guarantees a lost game.

Treat CGT like GST. When a business collects GST, they collect it from the customer - they don't pay the tax, you do! Well, the CGT should be the same, why shouldn't the seller just pass on the tax as a line item in the sale? I mean, its the perfect win-win. If you're happy about the tax changes, then obviously you'll be happy to pay the tax to support the government, and if you're an investor then paying the CGT upfront instead of at the end becomes a cost of purchase item that can be amortised over the life of the asset instead of a burden you need to fund at the end!

There are literally no flaws with this plan, and it will definitely make housing cheaper the way everyone has been auto-fellating themselves it will because CGT and NG are literally the only reason housing prices are high and there is nothing else that affects it at all and never will be.

This is definitely a 100% serious post with no sarcasm present at all. /s